Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/17/2025

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello hello, it’s a gorgeous Fall day in Tempe and I’ve got a packed schedule that will likely compress today’s chat. I’m going to allow a couple minutes for some more questions to flow in before we begin in earnest.

Alex: What have you made of the Nationals’ hirings and how do you expect them to handle key players differently than the past regime?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the way things have trended in Boston from a talent acquisition and development standpoint have been very positive, and I’d be stoked to have the people chiefly responsible for that helming my club. They’re young kids with a lot of juice, too. Let’s see how things continue to trend, but this feels like a strong start.

J Edna Hoover: Luke Adams isn’t just a right handed Tyler Black because…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s much more physical than Black, but the power piece of it is still below what I’d consider impactful at 1B.

Nuxie: Josh Baez- thoughts on his prospects and are you a believer in the improved approach

Eric A Longenhagen: I am pretty skeptical. He looks great on a spreadsheet and has draft pedigree, but my Spidey senses tingle watching him swing, I don’t think there’s actually average-ish feel to hit there and will take the under on him sustaining a 74% contact rate.

Guest: Has Daniel Eagen made an impression on you with his season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, plus breaking ball, riding fastball. The vert # on his fastball is inflated somewhat because of how high his release height is (it’s up around 80 inches) so don’t take the 20 inch number at face value, it’s more played like an average pitch. HIs curveball is real, but his slider (which also generated something near plus-plus miss) has a different enough release point that I feel like big league hitters will be able to pick it out. I think he’s a 45, which is still a great outcome for where he was schooled/drafted. His split was barely used in 2025 (6% usage against lefties) and is the one piece that might yet develop more and boost his role.

J Edna Hoover: Ethan Pecko looking like a rotation mainstay after he got healthy this year, eh?

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like him, yeah.

Matt: Thoughts on Caden Dana?

Eric A Longenhagen: Disappointing regression in strikes lasted all year, and has me concerned about him being less efficient than I thought he’d be a year ago. His fastball shape needs him to have fairly precise command, it’s very vulnerable when it’s not located well.

Jackson: Will Crawford be ready to contribute in LF/CF in 2026 for the Phillies? The comments about him in the presser sounded promising and like he was ready, but they’ve been saying that for a while and haven’t taken action

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the speed and defense pieces can make an impact on a big league game right now, but while much of his data is awesome (his combo of contact and exit velos are so impressive and exciting) his swing is still too long for him to pull fastballs at all, he’s driving them into the ground and playing pepper with the third baseman a ton. Tough to see meaningful offensive impact right now.

Eric A Longenhagen: He might get there as he gets stronger, it’s an exciting foundation of feel for contact and physical tools, just not mechanically functional

Mr. Burrito: Has ABS in the minors changed your evaluation of any pitchers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not off the top of my head, is there an angle via which you think it might? I think some of the guys with big overhand curveballs that clip the top and bottom of the zone might have an advantage compared to before, those pitches don’t read as strikes to the eye all the time.

Bencle Mens: What are your biggest offseason “to-do” bullet point?

Eric A Longenhagen: -Help hire another full time prospect writer
-I’m working on Asia Pro reports
-40 Man Crunch
-How’s My Driving foundation for Prospect Week
-Int’l Amateurs
-2026 draft
-Team Lists

chris: which met pitcher are you highest on?  Mclean, Tong, Sprout

Eric A Longenhagen: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: McLean

Mr. Burrito: Should Sasaki be a starter next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s see how their offseason shakes out. Might have a lot of turnover on the pitching staff, so many injured guys coming off the 60-day.

Thomas: Were you at all surprised that the Blue Jays didn’t send Tiedemann to AFL? I haven’t heard much about how his recovery is going and the silence is worrying.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know if I’m worried, but I agree it would have made sense to send him here given the timing of his surgery (which was July of last year)

Jerry: Were you surprised by Colson Montgomery’s debut performance this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol yeah, if you’d have told me in the middle of him striking out like 50% of the time that he’d come up and have a productive rookie year I wouldn’t have believed you.

robertobeers: Heliot Ramos was #38 on your 2023 Giants list (he was listed at 6’1 188 lol). Much of the analysis was spot on yet he’s developed into an average everyday player with serious fielding issues. His body is basically Kyle Schwarber, is there any outcome for him to stay in the field?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe in certain outfields it’d be okay, probably not theirs.

Bob: Any early AFL thoughts on PJ Morlando?

Eric A Longenhagen: In the wilderness

Eric A Longenhagen: He and Brailer Guerrero look like it’s too fast for them here

Bob: Is a late blooming career like Brent Rooker a realistic best case for Tommy White?

Eric A Longenhagen: White’s swing is so long into the hitting zone I don’t think the power actualization piece is going to arrive to Rooker’s level.

Jacob from Earth: Is Cooper Pratt trending the same way Trey Sweeney was?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a fair comp for middle of the road outcome for him

dannyb: Do the Phillies have the pieces to trade for a good cost-controlled OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I think if they wanted to trade a couple of the better prospects they could get an OF. I think the free agent crop of OF is deep enough that they shouldn’t be desperate to get one that way, though.

David: If you’ve had a chance to see Farmelo, how’s he looking running/fielding?

Eric A Longenhagen: Physically looks great, one of the bigger/faster/stronger guys here regardless of age.

Freest Rolexes: Luis Perales looks to have come back from TJ with his crazy stuff still in tact.  The command seems pretty bad, but that’s not unexpected.  My question: does he have a chance of getting the walks under control and, if so, what kind of talent are we looking at here from a FV stand point?

Eric A Longenhagen: In the 40+/45 FV area as a reliever, possible set-up man. Don’t think he can pitch like this and start. He’s cutter-heavy in part because the fastball doesn’t play like a 100 mph heater.

Troy Melton: I noticed that Melton wasn’t part of the 2025 graduates update and also doesn’t show on the current Tiger’s prospect list. Has his evaluation changed much for you with what he showed down the stretch and in the postseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: I may just need to push an update to the guts of the board, lemme peek at this really quickly…

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, give it like 5 to 10 minutes to take effect, he graduated.

Eric A Longenhagen: He was on the preseason top 100 and I still feel like he looks like aw good mid-rotation guy

JP: What do you do when your eyes don’t line up with the statistical success of a player? How do you approach that discrepancy?

Eric A Longenhagen: If what I’m seeing, visually, replicates a pattern of success or failure that I’ve seen before, I feel free to trust my eyes.

Eric A Longenhagen: If the entirety of public-facing prospect folks are beholden to the data, everyone’s opinions would be the same. That would suck and render the entire ecosystem pretty useless.

Evan: Seaver King is off to a nice start in the AFL. How down on him are you compared to where he looked coming out of the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still in that 45 FV area as a utility guy.

Andrew: I saw that you talked about the reduction of the ride of Painter’s FF, and as far as I know, it was 18 inches in the first month in aaa and then it came down to 15 inches in September. Spin has also decreased by nearly 300. No significant release point changes have been observed, so I’m wondering why.

Eric A Longenhagen: He release is absolutely different

Eric A Longenhagen: 2025 End-of-Season Top 100 Prospects Update | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: pics in there

Opifijikl: Do you update the Board as you review players/new info comes up or only a select few times a year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Little details are being updated frequently, there are a handful of big ranking changes throughotu a year.

Evan: Scouting the scout line only, Gary Gill Hill had a decent enough year in the TB system. Do you expect him to remain as a starter and what’s his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really athletic guy with huge command projection, stuff didn’t generate as many whiffs throughout the year as I hoped, still think he fits into the rotation eventually but probably toward the back if the whiffs stay like this.

Aldo Rayne: Can T.J. Rumfield be a second division regular at first if he was traded?  I’m sure the Yankees won’t make him one

Eric A Longenhagen: More fringe 40-man for me. Think he’s a big leaguer but more of a stopgap than someone you wanna run out there everyday.

J: Any thoughts on Owen Ayers? Super small sample in the AFL, but there’s been a bunch of talk about his hot start and he didn’t make your Cubs writeup this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Incredible exchange and above-average arm strength, popped sub 1.9 a bunch for me, other aspects of defense are bad. Mistake power. Pretty good prospect, gotta see the receiving improve to be a catcher.

Philip: How crazy would it be to say Okamoto has a better MLB Career than Murakami?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not crazy at all, I think that’s what’ll happen

Philip: Deniel Ortiz has pretty crazy statcast data, what is the primary reason he isn’t getting more prospect talk

Eric A Longenhagen: Fastball whiffs. Has power, though. Roughly average raw on a 20-year-old is good. He’s modestly projectable, already quite physical.

Donowiecz: I’m totally asking this for FYPD purposes, where we can also take any minor leaguers not already on rosters.  Where would you put current version of Caden Scarbrough if he were among last year’s draftees?  above/below Kyson Witherspoon?

Eric A Longenhagen: A little below but Scarborough is good.

Andrew: What’s your order of pitchers who graduated this season? Sasaki, Miz, Burns, Schlittler, Horton, etc. Who has changed your thought the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: The group you listed is good, I’d maybe replace Horton with Dollander, long term.

Ozzie: What do you think of Daylen Lile‘s debut? Is that type of performance sustainable for him? What does his ceiling look like?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have him as more of a second division LF, the defense piece hurts him and he lacks the power to make up for it.

Brian: Any change in eval of Luis De Leon based on your looks in AFL so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so, he looks good, secondary stuff is not monstrous. Looks like a no. 4/5 starter.

Ken: does LDV stick at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kinda don’t think so, arm strength/accuracy weren’t the best. I’ll have a more detailed review up at some point.

Lowe Distribution System: Baltimore has a preposterous 70 guys listed on The Board.  Is there ever an issue with playing time in the minors?  They have 22 guys listed at AA!

Eric A Longenhagen: So many of those guys are pitchers, I thin kit’s okay.

bushupking: Does Franklin Arias seem like he’ll be a better IRL player than fantasy player?

Eric A Longenhagen: AGreed

Adam: It was a depressing year in the Rays farm system. Can you provide me with any glimmers of hope?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d point to the overall success of the last 15 years and note a lot of the same people are around.

Matt: Carlos Lagrange seemed to have cleaned up his command in a pretty big way in A+ before having his strike% drop back into the low 60s in AA. If he were to remain in the 61-62% range is there any chance of starting or does that make him almost a certain relief candidate?

Eric A Longenhagen: Allow me to do some quick math…

Eric A Longenhagen: Qualified starters from 2025 with strike% 62% or less:

Eric A Longenhagen: Andre Pallante, José Soriano, Freddy Peralta, Gavin Williams, Will Warren, Hunter Brown, Brayan Bello, Brady Singer, Carlos Rodón, Clay Holmes

Eric A Longenhagen: So can be done

Eric A Longenhagen: good question, learned something instructive from that

sliderguy35: any chance johnny king gets a shot at the hondo next year? or still too young

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s possible, but go look at 100s from Jan/Feb and ask yourself how you feel about the young A ball arms who were included

Ozzie: Is Hunter Goodman’s numbers he put up this season sustainable? Have the Rockies found a legit bat at catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think yes, he’s got nutty power, catcher Mark Reynolds

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve gotta go help conduct an interview. Thanks for coming again this week, my schedule should loosen up enough next week to have run some pieces that we can discuss.