Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/19/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy, I’m on the road seeing family for the holidays while still hammering away at writing and Board maintenance, but still wanted to squeeze in one last chat before the site is dark starting in the middle of next week through New Year’s Day. So let’s boogie.

fried rice: why is ZIPS so bullish on colt emerson’s 3B defense?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question, I think it’s probably just mapping to 3B the metrics Dan’s using from SS/2B based on historical data when a player makes a similar move. But it’s Danny’s model, I don’t know for certain.

AD: Jordy Vargas came back after a really long injury layoff. Looks like he struck a ton of dudes out, but the walks were crazy. Is this normal injury rust, or had something noticeably changed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought his delivery looked *better* in a sense, namely that the traits I’m looking for in a delivery (in this case I thought Vargas was getting down he mound better than before, I haven’t looked at the extension data to check tho) were more present than before, his arm slot was kind of all over the place late in 2023 and was more consistently 3/4s in 2025…

Eric A Longenhagen: This plus rust coming off the TJ means I’m not super concerned (the breaking ball still performed like a 70 last year) but obviously the Rockies track record with arms hasn’t been great.

Dan S.: How do you think Coby Mayo is perceived around the league at this point? Former top 20 prospect, got exposed and struggled as he adjusted to MLB pitching and moved off 3B, but finished 2025 strong. Is there still enough upside for him to anchor a package for a good starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: It would depend on fit, I don’t think he’s at the top of the pecking order of Orioles I’m asking for if I’m trading a no. 3 or better, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mayo feels like the second piece in a deal like that

Shawn miller: any updates on yohanfer Santana?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can you be more specific? It’s the offseason and he was talked about in last week’s chat (including a link to video of one of his outings) so, not really.

Matt: I would be curious to hear your thoughts on Drew Burress, who seems like a unique prospect to say the least. Short and RHH but also maybe the best hitter in the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s rare for outfielders that small to actually hit it big.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think falling for Madrigal, etc. has pushed me more towards preferring overt physicality.

Dan S.: Will Enrique Bradfield Jr. hit enough to be a (good) regular? Or is he more of a glove-fist bench/platoon option?

Eric A Longenhagen: 45, plus defender, 70 runner. Useful 9 hole hitter.

Eric A Longenhagen: Look at the CF population from any prolonged period of time. The ones who produce like 50s or better hit for power, unless you’re Kiermaier.

tbone26: which lists are we getting next?

Eric A Longenhagen: Reds, White Sox, Mariners, probably one of Cleveland and Philly in there too. CIN and CHW next week before we’re dark, SEA, CLE, PHI in the New Year

Jonathan: What is Sung-mun Song’s defense like? Is there any defensive versatility considering Machado is still at 3B for the Padres?

Eric A Longenhagen: plus glove at 2b/3b

Eric A Longenhagen: Great athlete, I imagine he’ll rove beyond those two spots, but he’s very good at both. Gorgeous footwork and actions.

Dan S.: Trey Gibson stumbled a bit with the new ball in AAA but pitch models have me salivating over his arsenal. What’s the upside/floor there?

Eric A Longenhagen: A good team’s no. 4, has the stuff to take the ball in a playoff series

JD: Thoughts on Sung Mun Song signing with the Padres?

Eric A Longenhagen: For the amount they signed him for, it’s good. I’m skeptical he’ll hit very much but at this AAV it’d be okay if he’s a glove-first utility guy.

Res: Did Caleb Bonemer’s showing in A ball increase your confidence in his hit tool at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, James is stuffing him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Real barrel feel, excellent vertical plate coverage, we’re in.

Jeremy: How do you evaluate big-bat guys like Chris Hacopian knowing they don’t have traditional speed / athleticism to boost the rest of their package?

Eric A Longenhagen: Does he have at least one 70 grade something on offense? If he does then you can feel free to ignore some of the other stuff.

Jeremy: In hitting, how much do teams value present abilities versus things they think are fixable, e.g., does a guy with good chase but bad pull air % rank above a guy who already pulls with authority but has poor discipline?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it depends on how well-integrated player dev and scouting are for that particular team. Can you see the changes that need to be made? Have your scouts been armed with the knowledge that, for instance, lower body strength matters a lot for pitchers and maybe watch your orgs with that in mind searching for guys who don’t have that yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sometimes I think teams, even individual executives, have personal tastes that might lead them to value Emmanuel Valdez (an upper level performer) in a trade but not Estuar Suero (all projection).

Jeremy: How does 2026’s draft class stack up to recent drafts? Anyone stand out to you besides Cholowsky? Are there categories that looks particularly strong or weak this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Roch in tier 1 alone right now, then Grady Emerson and Justin Lebron. I bet a college pitcher or two joins them by July. Good college hitter draft into the middle of round 1.

Jeremy: What’s your read on Genei Sato? Are we likely to see more foreign college students come stateside before starting pro careers?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s okay. Fairly mature build, delivery features a good bit of effort. Throws hard, secondary stuff not great…35+ type

Eric A Longenhagen: I do think we’re gonna get more and more guys doing this, but as the world seems to finally be learning with Rintaro Sasaki, it doesn’t mean they’re good.

Eric A Longenhagen: Fun, nice story, RIntaro seems like a sweet kid, but he was pretty obviously not that good right away, hype created out of thin air by the internet basically

Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry, directing traffic on the Song signing and Pirates trade

Bowlan Ball: Do you think the Phillies will consider Bowlan in the rotation? History of starting in MiLB, big body, multi-inning role last year… also just general thoughts on the trade?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wondered this as the news broke, but he’s out of options so he’d have to be plugged right into their big league rotation. Seems unlikely.

Res: Was Josh Baez’s power in 2025 enough to move him for a 40+ to a 45? His K rate improved too.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m skeptical he’s actually going to hit, not really on him.

Eric A Longenhagen: I know, I’m mean.

Tacoby Bellsbury: I only got Gold in my FanGraphs year in review this year. What are you seeing in my performance that is causing me to underachieve?

Eric A Longenhagen: A flour tortilla

Mike K: What happened to Luciano? Anything to learn?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of that is just on me and the prospect-ranking industrial complex for being overzealous when we had too little performance data to be as confident as we were in stuffing him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mostly his swing is too long to actually succeed.

Guest: Thoughts on Sung-Mun Sun?  Where does he rank relative to the NPB players Murakami and Okamoto?   And is he really gonna play 2nd for the Padres?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can really pick it, I’m skeptical about the bat because of the way his hips bail toward 1B on so many of his swings. Think he’s a platoon 2B and utility guy. We 45’d him, James was a little more bullish on his bat than I was and we used his grade. I’d have 40-‘d him, still a big leaguer.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Deeper cut for you – who has a bigger impact on the 2026 Dodger club, Ryan Ward (blocked forever) or River Ryan (hurt forever)?

Eric A Longenhagen: River

Bowlan Strike: How much big league impact do you think Alex MacFarlane can have this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: could pitch himself into an integral seventh or eighth inning role the way Kerkering did as a rookie.

TooDamnTall: Thanks for all your great work throughout the year

Eric A Longenhagen: Gracias, gracias. Love our little website and nerd pirate crew.

Exhausted Pirates Fan: Say something good about the Pirates. It doesn’t even have to be true. Just give me something…. i am so tired

Eric A Longenhagen: Their offense just got better, I think.

Reginald: How would you sort through this mess of a depth chart in HOU? Guys like Melton, Matthews, Dezenzo have to play right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol you guys were on this today, these are still from right before the chat started and this Pirates trade news broke.

NFP: Anything to Jaiden Lo Re for Baltimore? I don’t see any reporting on him after 2024 but the O’s went over slot on him – was that just because their later juco picks fell through?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like he shortstop defense, was on him more the summer before his draft year, bat speed looked worse to me his senior year.

Pinstripe Perry: What is happening with the Yankees INTL amateur side? Kind of tough to believe they wouldn’t honor the Asigen agreement regardless of scouting regime change.

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve no honored many agreements over the last several years. They’ve been notorious for over-committing their pool and triaging players over the course of the 24 months leading up to actually signing the ones they think are best.

TooDamnTall: Who was your biggest love at first sight prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yadier Alvarez, Elly, Alfredo Duno, Hunter Greene, Rainiel Rodriguez, Lindor, Yordano Ventura, Dylan Bundy… I could go on forever baby.

TooDamnTall: Is there a trend towards high schoolers throwing with high velocity due working at a pitching lab at younger ages?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not that I’m aware of, but I’m barely monitoring youth baseball beyond making disapproving faces at the dynamics creating a great socioeconomic divide.

Alex: Are you surprised the Rockies haven’t been more aggressive with player movement, and in what significant ways do you expect DePodesta to reshape the team and front office this year and in the future?  Thank you.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a good question. I think if DePo had been working in baseball and had more preconceived notions about players throughout the pro universe then maybe he’d be more comfortable making lots of transactions right away. I actually think it’s okay to prioritize modernizing the org and then to apply more competent dev techniques to an entire system’s worth of players who haven’t received those yet. To me it’s logical that the players who can most improve are the ones already in your org, which has struggled to develop.

JP: What do you think of Chris Suero after his AFL performance?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a fun role player, 26th man type, who you hide on defense to get his bat into the lineup a couple times per week.

Greg: So I’ve been following prospects / draft for almost 20 years and I wonder how time and perhaps maturity have influenced your evaluations and perspective on this part of baseball. and how you’ve stayed interested.

Eric A Longenhagen: Self-flagellation for my mistakes, reflection, and what I think is preternatural pattern recognition have helped me learn and fuel my own self improvement. The players are new every year, so that keeps it fresh. I’m still trying to wrangle certain aspects of my personhood and channel them into different forms of productivity, less dev on the baseball side and more as a media member, since it looks like I’m locked in on that and not leaving for a team any time soon.

Insert Witty Name Here: So I’ve been reading your shit since you were still a Klaw protege and you’re churning out so much material year after year. I’m wondering how you keep up your stamina/interest in your work?

Eric A Longenhagen: Candidly, I’ve done some damage to myself with all the writing and late nights. But bro, I watch sports for a living. It’s awesome, I’m at peace earning it with a sleepless night once or twice a month.

Nate: Going into last season, you were highest on Gabriel Rodriguez for the guards AZL team. And even despite only ho-hum results, your mid season updates still had him above Dauri and Caceres. I’m curious what you’re seeing with those scout eyes that box score scouting can’t account for

Eric A Longenhagen: Gabe was hurt, Caceres is a spreadsheet darling (he’s good tho)

Scott: Any updates available on Toronto’s Jake Bloss post-surgery? He seemed to be moving along through the Houston system before the trade, and then his arm went “boom”…

Eric A Longenhagen: I still loved him

Eric A Longenhagen: Still think he’s a 50

Jonathan: I vaguely recall the Reds’ list is coming up fairly soon.  On that note, how do you visually evaluate someone like what Carlos Sanchez was in 2023 in AZ?  I know you and others have mentioned that there was a fair amount of buzz (until he hit full-season ball and cratered).  Was it just that the backfields’ velo wasn’t good enough to expose a flaw?  How would a scout avoid making that premature assessment again, or is it just a question of not having enough information until the player faces better quality pitching?

Eric A Longenhagen: ” Was it just that the backfields’ velo wasn’t good enough to expose a flaw?” Yes, I think this is it.

David: Is Tommy White’s defense at third base unplayable in the major leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t like him at 3B (nor very much as a prospect, overall) but don’t think he’s “unplayable”, and have a 6 on him as a 1B defender.

Rangers fan: Would you put Langford in Centerfield and just deal with either Carter or Nimmos below average arm in right?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d give Langford a shot to develop there and have Nimmo as the backup option if he can’t

Key Jangler: The farm system rankings page has St. Louis and Pittsburgh neck and neck for the most valuable. That ranking is obviously a confluence of valuation analysis (how much a prospect tier is worth along with what the prospect is rated). If you were being more subjective, which system is your favorite?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Detroit’s

Rangers fan: Is Davilillo getting top 100 consideration or not enough swing and miss?

Eric A Longenhagen: In the mix

Delauter: Think he can/will fake it in center ?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a bridge too far for me, like asking Joel Embiid to play 82 games

Clever Pseudonym: I didn’t think much of Kevin McGonigle at first because his power didn’t seem that great. I was wrong. While he’ll probably never hit 25-30 homers it looks as though he’ll have enough juice to be a high WAR player and make multiple trips to the All Star game. That said, what do you value more: a 60+ type hitter who needs to improve his power, or a 60+ type power prospect who needs to improve his hitting skills?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the amount and quality of the contact will allow his power production to play better than his raw batting practice pop

Brian: Thoughts on the reported Rays/Pirates/Astros deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m actually going to write this one up in full for the site when we’re through here, which will be shortly.

Alex: Based on the recent reporting around the Brandon Lowe trade, what are your thoughts on Anderson Brito and Jacob Melton?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brito I have in as a good reliever, lacks the size of a typical starter but has monster breaking stuff. David Robertson comp. Melton I need to re-engage with, this is less precise, but I’ve had him on the 45/50 grade line for a while now.

asdf: What’s with the lack of rumors about Murakami/Okamoto (and the Song news came out of nowhere)? Do international signs just have fewer leaks, or are their markets worse than expected.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s often just one or two agents who have the big NPB guys and our newsbreakers in the States have fewer lines of communication into the camps of players who don’t speak their language.

Jordan: Also, funny that as a corporate lawyer it took me about 10 seconds to realize that by “Board maintenance”, you meant working on updating THE BOARD and were not talking about drafting board resolutions and meeting minutes

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol, yeah, the phantom limbs of our careers.

Key Jangler: How much will the “flattening” of technology around the minors that MLB announced this week help evaluation? Also, when will they start using the same ball everywhere?

Eric A Longenhagen: I was pissed Eno scooped me, I was reporting that during FanGraphs hibachi. I think there are going to be lawsuits from the vendors who have contracts with these teams. It’s one thing to violate antitrust when you’re doing it within your own corporation like was done with some of the amateur Trackman stuff, and another when third parties are involved.

Utility charges: The SITE is going dark? The entire FanGraphs Site?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, we publish “best of” stuff between christmas and new years

Eric A Longenhagen: This is different than “Dark Mode” a thing you can have if you’re a member.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay y’all, I’ve gotta go start writing up this massive trade. Great questions yet again this week. NO CHAT NEXT FRIDAY. I will see you January 2, 2026, when I’ll be full of pork and sauerkraut.

Eric A Longenhagen: Merry Christmas to you and yours, happy holidays, be patient with yourself and others during your travels.