Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/20/24

Eric A Longenhagen: Good noon from chilly Philadelphia, I’m coming to you from a hotel room awaiting the arrival of a bunch of my hometown buds for a wedding.

Eric A Longenhagen: You might already know the Cubs list went live today, please enjoy.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get it.

Matt: When might we expect to see the 2025 MLB Draft class to be put on The Board?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably prospect week. Travis and I have a huge ranking lurking in the background but he wrote a bunch of the reports and is about to be hired by a team. They may want to sequester his opinions and I certainly won’t pass his work off as my own, so a lot of the college class’ reports have to be rewritten (which is fine, it’s for a great reason).

Guest: when are you going to be throwing the J15 prospects on the board

Eric A Longenhagen: Shortly after the new year.

Ken: More likely to happen: Jeffrey Springs stays healthy or Joe Boyle learns to throw strikes consistently?

Eric A Longenhagen: Springs, probably. He’s at least been healthy here and there, Boyle has never thrown strikes.

Tyler: What is Konnor Griffin’s upside? Could he shoot up the rankings if he performs well in his first season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, if the contact piece is strong out the gate that will make folks feel more comfortable that the tools will play.

fuz: So one team will spend their entire international 2025 bonus pool on one FV=60.  What the chance that another team will get more value with their 2025 bonus pool on traditional spread the money around?

Eric A Longenhagen: The hit rate on players in this market is low enough that I’d probably just take Sasaki at max amount and roll with it. I tend to agree that spreading out your pool is better than giving 3+ mil to one guy and calling it a day, but that might be because I’m coming off the Cubs list.

Alec: With the Nats (or another team say LAA or Seattle) doing so well in the draft lottery, would this make them less likely to sign a QO guy, since these teams (esp. the big market ones) would lose some of that lottery advantage in the form of bonus pool space and a pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: I hadn’t thought about that, but yeah. It would change the way I looked at my draft planning and spending if I leapt like that in the lottery, and in the cases where other activity impacts your draft situation you’d want to more carefully consider those impacts now that you pick 3 or whatever.

Eric A Longenhagen: It might also depend on your perceived quality of the class

George: Which of Herz, Parker, and Irwin are you most buying as a legit middle rotation guy for the Nats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Those are all backend/long relief guys for me. Irwin, for me, has the best chance to throw strikes and eat innings over the long haul. Parker has already been better than I expected, though.

Bob “Robert” Costas: Hi Eric — happy holidays. What are your thoughts on Yairo Padilla? I didn’t even recall the Cardinals signing him, and now I’m seeing his name everywhere as a potential break out 5 tool SS/CFer.  thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Happy holidays, Bobby. He only exists on a spreadsheet to me right now, though St. Louis’ DSL plays the Mets and Phillies enough that there’s a lot of Padilla tape online that will be consumed prior to the Cards list getting published…

Eric A Longenhagen: To that end, he’s an above-average contact hitter with well-below average power.

Eric A Longenhagen: 15% hard hit rate isn’t great even for his age, the contact stuff is good but nothing crazy (78% contact rate)

Bob “Robert” Costas: Curious about how you got to a 50 FV for Alcantara when his hit will be at best a 35.  That’s basically unplayable–certainly not in an everyday role.

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’m curious what you’d put on Tyler O’Neill and Colten Cowser’s hit tool, just off the top. Enormous power and plus defense, better feel for in-zone contact than Denzel Clarke (as I wrote up Clarke for the A’s list, these two were good apples-to-apples comps)

Brian’s Got Cash, man!: I have this guy Jasson. The projections seem modest but I have a feeling.  Should I trust the feeling or the projections?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have had a 50 on Dominguez for a while, that’s an average regular. He’s fine, not a messiah.

Ken: Are you surprised the A’s haven’t taken on a bad contract or two in trades with a prospect sweetener?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s a flex reserved for the big market daddies. If the A’s add significant payroll, it should be to make the big league team better.

Cromulent: Wyatt Sanford or Wyatt Langford? These guys remind me of each other for some reason. Can’t put my finger on it…

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re the guy who drafted the wrong Adrian Peterson

RWFTF: Is the 30/35 fielding grade on Matt Shaw a typo? The text reads more like a 40/50 or 40/55. Just trying to get a better feel for how the text translates to the grading. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh yes it is, thanks for that

Eric A Longenhagen: lemme fix that asap

Eric A Longenhagen: (sound of pots and pans clanging)

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok fixed, thanks

Kate: Adam Mazur have / develop enough stuff to be more than a #5?  Seems kinda meh at the moment, but the Marlins apparently made some tweaks after getting him at the deadline last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Looked super vulnerable to me during his big league outings, I’m pretty worried.

SpicieBoy: why aren’t there anymore big free agents coming from Cuba like there were in the 2010s? Feels like for about 5-10 years, there were multiple Cuban free agents signing 8-figure deals each winter and then suddenly it just stopped

Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote about this in a Hardball Times annual going on…uh…seven years ago? We went from older guys like Livan and El Duque and Jose Contreras, to guys coming over in their prime like Cespedes, to guys coming over in their early twenties (Arozarena, Robert, Yordan) to them signing right at 16 in a lot of cases…

Eric A Longenhagen: The talent there was finite, it was an under-tapped “resource” (blech) that has now been tapped all the way, I suppose.

Felix: Now that the Giants signed Adames and Fitzgerald looks to play second, what is the outlook on Luciano?

Eric A Longenhagen: RF, been that way for a while imo.

Uncertain Alec Bohm: When will Aidan Miller realistically be ready? Do you think he factors into the Phillies (rumored) willingness to listen on Bohm?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yah know, I think it might. I really don’t like the idea of moving Bohm, but I do think Miller is a stud and could be “ready” fairly soon.

Bob “Robert” Costas: You’re on the clock Eric. Who are you picking? Jamie Arnold, Bremner, or Seth Hernandez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bremner, then Sethy

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is there consensus on what led to guys like Cal Raleigh or Austin Wells becoming stellar framers? It’s not uncommon for me to see guys with crummy graduation grades level up in the majors, but it’s obviously not luck.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question, Yanks have good catcher dev street cred, Cal I suppose I’d attribute it to size/strength/work. You’re right that at various points (especially with Wells) those guys were considered bad defenders. Cal, iirc, was more divisive and some folks thought he framed well at FSU (quants, i want to say).

wheelhouse: Would you put Jasson in CF Bellinger in LF or vice versa

Eric A Longenhagen: I would let the young OFs, the Ozzies, Ben Rice and I guess Grisham compete for spots and move Bellinger wherever you need to in order to have the best lineup.

wheelhouse: Do you think Murakami is worth sitting out the Alonso or Walker negotiations to wait for and sign, assuming a team can get him? Obviously Vlad will be far and away biggest FA at 1B next offseason barring extension, but there’s only one of him

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, too much hit tool risk, I’d take Walker ahead of the other two.

Desperate pirates fan: Any updated thoughts on Termarr Johnson following the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still love how his hands work, think they’re in the right place often enough for him to get to power and play 2B everyday. Gonna K a lot, he’s not Cano or anything like that.

onomatopoeia: Who do you think has the most 2025 MLB upside of this group of Red Sox 40-man pitchers: Hunter Dobbins, Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts, Zach Penrod?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dobbins and Fitts

Maddoning: On your Cubs list, no Alexander Canario, even though he still has rookie status…..are you that low on him, or do you consider him “graduated” anyway?

Eric A Longenhagen: He does not have rookie status anymore

Eric A Longenhagen: Baseball Ref has become unreliable for rookie status. It’s wrong about Kilian, too.

Eric A Longenhagen: This has been true for the last couple of years.

Eric A Longenhagen: Go count Canario’s roster days, he exceeds 45 in either May or July, pretty comfortably over.

Bridge to Painter: Which of the Phillies 40-man SP prospects do you think would handle the “bridge to Painter” role best? Seth Johnson, Michael Mercado, Moises Chace, Jean Cabrera, Mick Abel?

Eric A Longenhagen: Johnson seems tailor made for that

Hugh: Are there certain characteristics (or statistics) of productive hitters at AAA that make you not believe their success at that level will carry to the majors? K rate of around 30% feels like one, curious if you have others.

Eric A Longenhagen: Splits versus 94+ mph fastballs

Justin: The Pirates don’t feel like they have a good enough situation for being in year 6 of a rebuild, right?  What are your thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Skenes has been their only biggity big big hit atop the draft, tough to really ascend when the others are underwhelming. Some of that has had to do with a given draft class and lack of superior options, but teams liek Baltimore ascend because they hit Adley/Gunnar in the same draft, and that hasn’t happened here.

Maddoning: Do you think there is an issue with scouting or org philosophy that is causing the Cubs to miss so much on all these high-dollar IFA SS?  Or just a string of bad luck?  Bit of both?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of both, perhaps not using all the tools available to assess hit tool stability. It’s super hard when you’re trying to guess whether the guy facing 82 mph fastballs most of the time can hit 92.

onomatopoeia: I was clicking through the farm system rankings and changing the report year, and I noticed the dollar value of certain play types-grades doesn’t change (e.g. $112m for a 70-grade bat even as I toggle to different years). Are those values as of the last time this was studied, or are they updated each year/every so often and the number displayed is just always the latest valuation? Love the content – thanks for all of your work!

Eric A Longenhagen: From the lone time Craig Edwards did the valuations. It could probably use a re-up, that’s five years ago now?

Justin: Is Enmanuel Valdez still intriguing to you in any way?  He seems like he has the ability to hit the ball hard and hit the ball frequently but idk!

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s one of those guys who I didn’t like and I let others convince me he was good, and I regret it.

Kelvin Cato: What does Jacob Melton have to iron out to be a factor in the Astros OF in 2025? They don’t seem to be prioritizing OF additions post Tucker deal and the current situation is thin to say the least.

Eric A Longenhagen: Darkhorse ROY candidate

sup3rjosh: How do the contact rates look on Emil Morales after his huge DSL season?

Eric A Longenhagen: hold please

Eric A Longenhagen: Below average

Eric A Longenhagen: 68% contact, nutty power for his age, though

Billy the Marlin: If he improves his defense. What is Agustin Ramirez ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: top 10 catcher

Eric A Longenhagen: I really worry that guy is gonna crack open someone’s head with his backswing

Dan: I’ve been hearing a lot (and have read you say the same) about right-right power hitting first basemen being a tough profile. I’m curious why that’s the case? Is it strictly because of the platoon disadvantage?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, from a syllogistic reasoning standpoint you’d rather have a LHH anything than a RHH anything, you’d rather have a SS than a 3B, etc. The bottom of that spectrum is RHH 1B, and I think we see in the player population that on the fringes of rosters that matters a lot. When you’re Miguel Cabrera, not so much.

Maddoning: Has there been a drop-off of prospect quality/quantity out of Venezuela, given the unrest and other problems there?

Eric A Longenhagen: There was a stretch when they were underscouted but now there’s a process that allows them to be seen in Colombia. It’s a tough situation for the players (and all Venezuelans) and for the scouts.

Dan: Also just saw Robert Murray say the Astros are close to signing Christian Walker. Interesting that they went back to signing another aging 1B…

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah, really? If so, I’m gonna miss watching that guy 20 mins from the house.

AA burner: Happy holidays, Eric! Drake Baldwin has the highest xwOBA of any prospect in the Triple-A Statcast era (2021-24) except for Matt McLain. Is Baldwin the top catching prospect in the sport?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I think part of my job, and really the job of any knowledgeable sports fan, is to ask yourself if things pass your sports fan smell test. Drake is a little too small for me to think he’s going to have Javy Lopez’s power. He’s good, I like him as a primary catcher, but not a .500 SLG guy.

Yovani Gallardo: Do you have any particular thoughts about Tomoyuki Sugano to the Orioles, such as how he might fare as a member of the O’s rotation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Love him, does it easy, great command, don’t think he has the pure stuff you want going 6+ in a playoff game anymore but he’ll play a meaningful regular season role for them.

George: Are you still a believer that CJ Abrams can stick at short? Feels like he should be playing OF and just letting the bat work but that feels like a hard sell in DC.

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed

Willy: Does Homer Bush Jr project as a regular or onky a defensive bench OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bench guy for me, but a good one.

>this guy<: Do you buy Druw Jones statistical improvements in 2nd part of last season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really, he just stopped swinging.

Eury Perez: What is the outlook for him going forward? Still a big arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously let’s see how he looks when he pitches again, but I like Eury every bit as much as I like Skenes. He’s a freak.

Idiotic Failson: As a Yankee fan who has watched Gil pitch I am pretty sure he has peaked. Am I wrong?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re right, but if he sustains what he did in ’24 you’re psyched about that, right/

Eric A Longenhagen: I would be, he basically didn’t get better since they got him from the Twins and then all of a sudden had that changeup and got in amazing shape.

Carson: What was the reasoning behind dropping Drew Gray off the Cubs list, and do you think he can recoup his prospect status in 2025?

Eric A Longenhagen: Former million dollar HS arm, hasn’t added velo, walked 8 per 9 each of the last two seasons.

Idiotic Failson: What under the radar prospect are you irrationally excited about?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a tough one, I am the radar, Failson.

Eric A Longenhagen: I couldn’t stop watching Alfredo Duno last weekend.

KJ: Do you think Leodalis De Vries or Ethan Salas could make their MLB debut this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: no

Bobby Peru: When reading Shaw’s writeup, I was struck by the criticism of his swing. Are these flaws (big leg kick, etc) fixable?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not critical, but it is weird

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok folks, I’ve gotta run. Thanks for coming again this week. Next week’s chat is up in the air, I’ll be at my old man’s for the holiday and need to see family. Hope you have a Merry Christmas, kids enjoy the Wednesday Christmas two-week break and catch some Pokemon for me.