Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/5/25
| 12:17 |
: Good afternoon from my mom’s breakfast nook in Port Charlotte! I fly to Florida a few days early to see family before trekking up to Orlando for Winter Meetings. I can’t wait to do Disney character voices for my peers.
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| 12:17 |
: I expect chat will be closer to 45 minutes today because I have to wrap up my analysis of last night’s Pirates/Red Sox trade.
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| 12:17 |
: SO let’s get to it.
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| 12:18 |
: Curious to know if you have anything on Seojun Moon that the bluejays signed earlier?
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| 12:19 |
: Yeah, really well-built Korean kid sitting about 93. Prototypical 6-foot-3 frame, good-looking delivery, command is kind of erratic. Probably would have been a top three pick in the KBO draft, looks like a million dollar arm to me. Maybe got a little more because late-market guys tend to, not a terrible consolation prize for being the Roki runner up.
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| 12:19 |
: Wondering if you know anything about the Florida bridge league, any Jays standout and how was Jojo Parker?
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| 12:20 |
: I’m not even sure there was game activity in Florida after the complex season. The Florida teams seem much less organized.
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| 12:20 |
: Jared Serna’s power numbers nosedived this year. From your previous reports it seems like he never had a TON of power, but swung hard enough to at least be a threat. Did something meaningfully change this season?
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| 12:23 |
: Hard hit rate dipped from 46% to 39%. The peak exit velo measurables were basically the same (EV 90 and max were both pretty good) but his launch angle cratered. I’d need o pull up and compare video to see if it was swing-change related, or if he was being approached differently by pitchers.
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| 12:23 |
: Do the Dodgers have enough to go for a three-peat or does veteran fatigue start to catch up? I haven’t dug deep into their prospect list but it seems more future-oriented that 2026-youth-injection-oriented.
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| 12:24 |
: They’re good enough to do it, but you’re right that they’re more likely to leverage the farm system for trades than they are to have a bunch of rookies spearheading their title defense next year. I still think River Ryan is a dude, though, he should help.
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| 12:24 |
: Do you have any updated thoughts on Aroon Escobar? Curious if his EVs and hard contact held up as he made it to AA.
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| 12:28 |
: He only played five games at Reading, not really a big enough sample to determine if there was a dip. His full season data was great: 76% contact, 43% hard hit, peak exits a shade above the big league average. A ’25 pick to click who did.
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| 12:29 |
: Did you get a chance to see Yohanfer Santana in his return this season? Anything to quell your excitement?
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| 12:29 |
: On video, yes.
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| 12:29 |
:
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| 12:30 |
: Love him still. I know he’s behind the developmental curve but I don’t really care, this guy’s a freak.
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| 12:30 |
: How bad did the Pirates fleece the Red Sox in yesterday’s trade?
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| 12:31 |
: I’m too apprehensive about Garcia’s plate discipline to use language that strong, though I do think it made a ton of sense for Pittsburgh.
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| 12:31 |
: According to WalkOff, I am the #1 Andrew Wiggins fan on the site. Can you guess my college team?
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| 12:32 |
: One of Indiana, NC State or maybe (on a lark) Kansas
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| 12:32 |
: What do you think of Nathan flewelling
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| 12:33 |
: A very exciting, projectable (both physically and from a skills standpoint) lefty-hitting catcher. Young for the class Canadian kid 6-foot-2, love the hip and hand sep he gets during his swing. Probably a slow burn dev project but really nice upside for a guy who got under a million bucks.
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| 12:33 |
: Hey Eric! Today, of Astros prospects Brito and Pecko, which do you think is most likely to become a number 3-4 starter in MLB?
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| 12:34 |
: Pecko. Brito I dig but he’s a reliever. A good one, like David Robertson type I think. Pecko looks more like a starter to me, body and delivery wise.
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| 12:34 |
: Do you have a scouting report for Adonys Guzman?
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| 12:34 |
: Killer arm backup catcher profile.
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| 12:34 |
: Two prospects I’d love to hear your thoughts on, especially in regards to best outcome, worst outcome, and most likely outcome!
Charlie Condon |
| 12:37 |
: Crazy high end for George is maybe something like Brett Gardner? More likely a nice extra outfielder.
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| 12:38 |
: Condon the ceiling is Kris Bryant, the more likely outcome is like Wily Mo Pena, maybe Tyler O’Neill type. I think he’s gonna K a ton, there’s real juice tho.
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| 12:38 |
: Any new reports on Konnor Griffin’s defense at short? The stats people seem to be in.
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| 12:39 |
: I hope to have a hyper detailed one up on the site as part of the Shortstop Prospect Defense series. It’s better than it was in high school for sure.
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| 12:39 |
: Beyond Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, who can I get really excited about for the Twins this coming year? Are there any position players who might make the leap from the minors?
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| 12:40 |
: I betcha see Prielipp and Culpepper this year. Kendry Rojas is more a no. 4/5 for me than midrotation type, but he’ll debut. Gabriel Gonzalez I have had reservations about because of his chase and lack of athleticism but he keeps hitting.
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| 12:41 |
: Sal Stewart medium term solution at 1b for Reds?
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| 12:41 |
: Yeah
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| 12:41 |
: Can you contrast Ryan Waldschmidt and Carson Benge? Their scouting reports are super similar. Waldy seems like a right handed version of Benge. Thanks!
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| 12:41 |
: Benge is way more angular and fluid, Waldschmidt is muscular and volcanic, Benge a better pure athlete.
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| 12:43 |
: What do you think a reasonable return for Brendan Donovan might look like in terms of FV prospects?
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| 12:45 |
: Two years of control over a guy who has performed like a 60? Should be a pretty big haul. A couple of 50 FV guys and probably one or two more less fliers. When you’re trading a good player you tend to get a good prospect back per year of control and then some filler.
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| 12:45 |
: Will Rincones Jr be ready to contribute to the Phillies outfield sometime in 2026?
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| 12:46 |
: In a platoon capacity, yeah. Lemme peek at his splits quick…
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| 12:46 |
: .220 xwOBA versus lefties in 2025, that tracks
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| 12:47 |
: Will Ethan Fray’s performance in Low A change his 35+ grade in this year’s Houston prospect outlook?
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| 12:47 |
: Nah, a big college guy like that should destroy Low-A
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| 12:47 |
: Low A pitching, especially late in the year when the best guys have been promoted, is bad.
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| 12:47 |
: Can you compare and contract Cristofer Torin and Geraldo Perdomo at similar stages? Both seem super similar- good D at SS, high contact, great plate discipline, low power.
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| 12:49 |
: Torin doesn’t have that kind of physical projection. Love his bat to ball acumen but at the same stage Perdomo was a 6-foot-ish guy who now looks closer to 6-foot-3, watch Gerry when he’s standing next to Machado, they’re basically the same size. Torin is a wee lad.
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| 12:49 |
: The Red Sox seem a little overloaded with AAA pitching. I know there will be some injuries, but if the rotation is Crochet, Gray, Bello, Sandoval, and Crawford, how do you sort through Tolle, Early, Harrison, Oviedo, Dobbins, Drohan, Uberstine, Sandlin, and Perales. They can’t all go to AAA.
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| 12:49 |
: Perales, Drohan, and Oviedo are all relievers for them I think. Harrison might be, too.
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| 12:50 |
: Do you think the Dbacks should trade away Ketel Marte to fill all the holes on their roster?
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| 12:51 |
: Blerg, I don’t think I can be objective about Ketel.
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| 12:52 |
: If the Snakes think they have good player dev then they should be able to solve some of the pitching problems in house. Right?
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| 12:53 |
: But if they got back a true front end arm (keep in mind how miserly I am) plus a corner bat…
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| 12:53 |
: I’d rather see them move Lawlar to someone who’s still in
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| 12:53 |
: Is this prospect crop the weakest of all time? Guys in the 40-60 range I don’t think would have been ranked 10 years ago. And what happened to all the Acuñas and Sotos and Tatises?
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| 12:54 |
: How many hall of fame players do you need to see on a given year’s prospect list?
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| 12:55 |
: Is there any juice at all with Feliz Reyes? 160 wRC+ in basically a full AA season
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| 12:56 |
: Saw him with the Pigs late, he has real power, more Darin Ruf than Rys Hoskins in terms of roster fit. Think he’ll rake in Asia.
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| 12:57 |
: Many Mets trade rumors center around Jonah Tong. What is your outlook for him? Mid-rotation guy? Better? Worse? I haven’t viewed him as “untouchable” like McLean…
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| 12:57 |
: Mid-rotation, think the Lincecum comps were irresponsible
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| 12:58 |
: His fastball plays in such a way that he can have fringe command and still survive, but he ain’t McLean
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| 12:58 |
: In a previous chat you mentioned Jose Corniell leaving his last AFL start with an apparent injury. Have you heard what the injury was?
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| 12:58 |
: No
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| 12:58 |
: Might just be a black box, the standards around injury reports outside the regular season are poor.
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| 12:58 |
: Have you adjusted the way you grade catchers’ fielding in light of ABS, or are the limited number of challenges too few to affect their defensive grade?
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| 12:59 |
: I think the latter, and I actually think a catcher’s ability to challenge might in fact *add* a dynamic to their impact overall.
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| 12:59 |
: The catcher has the very best look at any given pitch, right?
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| 1:00 |
: Sometimes I do think poor framers will induce the hitter to challenge pitches they should not, they’ll make the pitch look so bad that the hitter thinks it’s a ball.
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| 1:00 |
: That’s going to be funny.
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| 1:00 |
: And some guys are going to be able to goad the dummies into bad challenges like this.
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| 1:00 |
: It’s gonna be awesome, I can’t wait.
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| 1:00 |
: What do you make of the return for Sonny Gray?
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| 1:01 |
: I dug it. Clarke is probably a reliever but he’s so, so nasty. That’s an elite slider and he throws 100.
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| 1:02 |
: Does Bryce Rainer’s lost season affect his FV in your opinion?
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| 1:02 |
: Kinda, it meant he couldn’t truly convince me that he’s actually going to hit like he might have if he’d had a whole season.
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| 1:02 |
: What grade do you think Jacob Lombard is?
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| 1:03 |
: 40+ at best, terrifying contact data, power is real
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| 1:03 |
: I guess its moot for another year now but wasnt Dominguez a pretty highly regarded CF on defense as a prospect? I know YS is a tough LF but why would he struggle so much there?
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| 1:03 |
: Not here
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| 1:04 |
: “Where he needs to improve is on defense. Perhaps because he’s missed extended time due to injury, Domínguez has sketchy feel for his position. His reads and routes can be wayward, and he looks uncomfortable at the catch point. He runs pretty well, but not well enough to play center field without good instincts and feel.”
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| 1:04 |
: here was a point when he was very young and fast that it was plausible he could develop out there, but he hasn’t
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| 1:04 |
: How real was last year for Perdomo?
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| 1:04 |
: Real real
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| 1:05 |
: He’s an elite makeup guy, he busts his ass
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| 1:06 |
: Who is more likely to become a big league regular: Junior Perez or Henry Bolte?
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| 1:06 |
: Bolte, the speed gives him a more realistic roster fit. Perez (67% contact rate, stark inside out batted ball profile) looks dicey to me.
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| 1:06 |
: What’s your view of the Rockies bringing Josh Byrnes on board?
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| 1:08 |
: I love it, they add someone who has been an integral part of the best organization in sports and who has high level executive experience. Went from a place I wouldn’t wanna work to one that I think you have to listen to if they call.
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| 1:09 |
: Have you heard anything about why it took Alejandro Rosario so long to have his TJ?
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| 1:10 |
: Yes, it has to do with a separate medical issue that prevented him from having the surgery like anyone else would.
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| 1:10 |
: I know that scouting the statline isn’t a great activity, but “hey, this person is 20 years old and is surviving in AA without crazy babip luck. He will probably be a pretty good big leaguer” has been a pretty good evaluation heuristic for me. What is your favorite super quick heuristic with evaluation that tends to work out pretty well with evals?
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| 1:10 |
: Are you K’ing more than 25% of the time in the low minors? That’s scary.
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| 1:10 |
: If Jordan Lawlar were still a prospect what FV grade would you give him? Should I be concerned about his poor showing in the majors so far?
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| 1:11 |
: Man, that’s tough. I’m worried about him. I didn’t watch his CF work in LIDOM yet, that might be a big deal.
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| 1:11 |
: Baseball America listed Nate George as the best hitter and best athlete in the Orioles system. Very curious what you think of that
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| 1:12 |
: I think he’s going to be tested by better velocity and am more apprehensive than they seem to be.
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| 1:14 |
: Okay guys, there are still lots of good questions but I need to go be a good prospect writer and son. Look for my Pirates/BoSox trade analysis soon, please read the whole Dodgers list with a delightful weekend substance of your choice. Talk to you next week.
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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.