Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 2/27/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where we’re creeping into the 90s this weekend. Thanks for stopping by, let’s talk some ball.

Alex: Can you tell us who is next up for the team prospect lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mets and Braves are next, Yankees and Astros deeper in the mix. Extra deep and weirdly specific: Washington is on track for the second week of April because I’ll see Rochester, Wilmington and Harrisburg the first series and a half of the minor league season.

Go Mudcats: Hey Eric, hope you are doing well. In thinking about the Pirates and Griffin breaking camp with the big team, I’ve been trying to figure out what the downside is specifically. I understand that development can get messed up/stunted by rushing prospects, but how exactly would that present and why would 2 or 3 months in AAA keep that from happening?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’d be an end-of-season benefit to getting his feet wet immediately. Move his adjustment period and the pomp and circumstance of his call-up to the start of the season, get it over with, and give your team a chance of having a rooted, productive Griffin from May on instead of July on, or something…

Eric A Longenhagen: But in this case you’re the Pirates. You’ve gotta max out how long you have this guy.

Eric A Longenhagen: And it’d be good for you, as the Pirates, to make Konnor Griffin‘s call up it’s own mid-to-late season event that brings people to the ballpark.

Eric A Longenhagen: If he agrees to an extension, screw it, he debuts from the jump. If not, you need to have this guy for six and a half years.

Hazmat Corntail: I was looking at Franklin Arias’ profile recently, and it struck me as reminiscent of Elvis Andrus…as I on the right track with that comparison, or is there a better comp you’d make?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think that comp is excessive, that’s what the Arias outcome we have projected most looks like: premium contact and defense, slugging like .370 a lot of the time. Maikel Garcia is the current player comp we made during work on the 100.

Bobby: Why does Blade Tidwell not get more attention? All the Stuff models have him in the 95th percentile or above. Misses a ton of bats. Command seems to have improved substantially. Why is he way down on organizational depth charts and team prospect lists (yours being the exception)

Eric A Longenhagen: Well first let me say I think it’s okay if the pie chart of baseball discourse isn’t exactly aligned with player talent. “Get enough attention”? (Adam Friedland voice) What does that mean?…

Eric A Longenhagen: In Tidwell’s case I imagine folks are properly indexed on his relief probability.

Eric A Longenhagen: For me, because I agree with you we’re talking one 70-grade pitch and other plus stuff, that means he’s a late-inning reliever who is basically ready for prime time, and I value that type of guy a lot.

Salutations: You were the low man on Sal Stewart, and even though he hasn’t accomplished much, it’s clear your position has changed. Could you foresee this outcome for Cooper Pratt as well, especially as he fills out and if doesn’t take any fastballs to the back of the head?

Eric A Longenhagen: Totally possible, players frequently change and their grade should change, in kind.

Big Buckston: More Twins SP injury news with the news David Festa will be out a while, in addition to the Pablo Lopez UCL injury.

RosterResource have the opening day rotation right now as Ryan-Ober-Woods Richardson-Bradley-Zebby, which I’d say is most likely. But the Twins have a wealth of young options behind them in Mick Abel, Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, John Klein, and Kendry Rojas. How would you rank the pecking order of these for getting MLB starts? I think Abel is probably clearly at the top, but the other 4 haven’t debuted yet so I’m not so sure. Interested in any insight you might have in terms of major-league readiness.

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree that Abel is tier one on his own, I’d put Morris next (he spent all of last year at Triple-A) and then Klein and then Prielipp and Rojas last just because they have less of an inning load from last year and might be handled more conservatively. In reality, who debuts first from the group after Abel will probably be determined by who throws for St. Paul on the same day as the guy who got hurt.

Jarlin Marlin: What adjustments did Konnor Griffin make from going to 20 hit to 45 hit?

Eric A Longenhagen: All teenage players have either a 20- or 25-grade present hit tool on The Board. I don’t think it’s realistic to say, “this super young low-level hitter would hit .250 (or whatever) in the big leagues right now.” and so the “present” hit tool grades are standardized: 25 for the really advanced contact bats, 20 for everyone else. Once guys establish themselves at Double-A then we put an actual “present” hit tool grade on them, they’re basically in range of the bigs at that point. It’s also so you can sort The Board and it makes sense.

WagnerCrystal: I was suprised by Johnny Level making the top 100. What about him really stood out in the Giants system. He as, you mentioned, is small and maxed out, which I would think would make him much less appealing dudes with more power and/or speed.

Eric A Longenhagen: A good hitter who can play shortstop.

Nick: When evaluating, which physical tool have you found to be the most innate among elite prospects? Something that the best of the best just “have” and no one can coach or teach… and how often has that translated into professional success?

Eric A Longenhagen: CF Defense

Mike: Have you folks thought about moving the ‘system overview’ section to the top of the team prospect lists instead of the bottom where they are now? They’re always great, enjoyable writing and I worry they get buried at the bottom of these lists!

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the posts would look like recipes with excessive preambles if we moved them to the front, and I want to make you scroll past the 35+s to get to it for fear you’d otherwise ignore them.

JaysFan: From the pick to clicks article, I am curious to know if those are more so picks for breakouts or to make the top 100. Because (especially for the source picks section) there was guys who weren’t even on the main sections of lists to be picked as that. So are they saying guys like Kennew Blanco for example is their pick to become a breakout or top 100 guy? With that, do you have anything on Kennew in particular, can’t say I know much about him, whether that’s what you are seeing or your source

Eric A Longenhagen: Picks to Click are: Prospects not currently on the Top 100 who we’re predicting will be next year. We have a roughly 30% hit rate on these names, historically. The section at the bottom is a list of players who our sources consider as having the potential to do this. Blanco hit well in last year’s DSL but was older than most guys debuting. Brendan thinks he merits a follow, we have a source who likes him more than that.

The Actor for Al Pacino: Jordan Lawlar is moving to outfield. There have been a lot of high-profile moves like this in recent years with decent results (Tatis, Merrill, Oneil Cruz just off the top of my head), and anecdotally a higher concentration than I can remember in my baseball-watching life. Do you think this is becoming a legitimate trend (athletic but shaky infielder to solid outfielder), and is it as new as I seem to think it is? I can think of individual cases in the past, but none clustered together like this. Or maybe this just happens more in the minors before I’m aware of it…

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a good question. Players have/are moving down the defensive spectrum all the time. But I’m struggling to think of older, big name players who moved from shortstop directly to the outfield, and I’m struggling. I guess technically Mookie did for a while, right? Most of the names I’m thinking of moved to 3B or 2B. Maybe there’s some bias in our Tatis/Oneil group because they’re talented enough hitters that you’re okay with them being outfielders? Cronenworth types you want to play 2B

szakyl: This time of year what’s a more valuable look at a prospect for scouting: WBC competition or standard spring training?

Eric A Longenhagen: WBC. Spring games are nice because of the volume of players I get to see, but if I’m targeting one guy let’s see him truly get after it.

Guest: Do you know when spring breakout rosters will be announced

Eric A Longenhagen: It wasn’t until March 17th last year, based on a quick Goog. I texted Callis, will let you know.

Spencer Ohtani: Talk me down from Lagrange, kid reminds me so much of Delin Betances.

Eric A Longenhagen: If you insist:

Eric A Longenhagen: His fastball isn’t going to play like a 100 mph fastball, its angle is really hittable. He has below average athleticism for a starter. His delivery is way more consistent than it was when he was here for AFL two seasons ago, but his feel for location is still reilever-y. We like him, obviously, and Betances is not a bad comp.

NFP: If a guy looks like a 40 or 45 at CF or SS, what’s the likelihood they get pushed off that position just because there’s someone who can man it better? Obviously you grade them at the position you think they can handle, but doesn’t that change their actual (as opposed to future) value?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, so much of it just depends on who else the team has on the roster. You’re getting into scouting versus predicting. Hell, a guy could be a plus shortstop defender and if you have a 70 on your roster he’s playing 3B. Maikel Garcia, again.

gamer: miguel mendez is pumping gas this spring, do you think he has a shot at starting games for the dads this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but another guy whose fastball plays down due to its lack of movement.

Guest: Eric – how confident are you that Kevin Mcgonigle truly hit a ball 118mph in the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: It was a foul ball, so I kinda don’t think we should care either way, but if you wanna see it and judge for yourself, it occurs at the 3:22 mark of this video: Kevin McGonigle, INF, Detroit Tigers

Eric A Longenhagen: Power metrics that more accurately illustrate Kevin McGonigle’s power: 105 EV90 (above avg), 113 max (above avg), 47% hard hit rate (plus)

Eric A Longenhagen: This is not a guy with 70 raw power.

Oaktown Blues: I’m curious your thoughts on a couple post-prospect guys on the A’s, JT Ginn and Jack Perkins. Do you think they should still get run as starters, or time to bullpen them?

Eric A Longenhagen: The A’s should keep deploying them as starters until they’re practically out of options. I’ve had a relief grade on Perkins for a while but they should keep trying to start him. They need arms, they all have options.

WagnerCrystal: Roch Cholowsky seems bit underwhelming from a tools perspective for dude who I’ve heard is the favorite to go 1-1 overall. Am miscalibrating my expectations? I’ve heard him compared to a similar caliber of prospect as Adley Rutschman.

Eric A Longenhagen: Underwhelming if you’re expecting A-Rod or Corey Seager, but I think his tools and prospect DNA are similar to Dansby Swanson: strikeouts, but gets to power and plays incredible defense. I’m cool taking that guy first if there isn’t a Gerrit Cole (or someone like that) to take.

DJ: I really enjoy the retrospective “how’s my driving” pieces on past prospect evaluation hits and misses. Are there any specific “misses” that you still think about or that have an influence on your present day evaluations?

Eric A Longenhagen: Matt Olson: If there’s enough power, be cool with the 70ish% contact rate.

Colton: Dynasty fantasy related question; Sebastian Walcott or Payton Tolle for my next pick? Already set up to compete this year, can keep these guys as long as I want. Leaning Walcott but would like some input if possible.

Eric A Longenhagen: If you feel like your SS/3B situation is set for the next few years, take Tolle. I love Walcott but Tolle is every bit as freaky and is gonna be doing stuff in the bigs right away.

Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re old at SS, then roll the dice

Lunch Angle: Who is the next Ben Rice–someone crushing the minors but is overlooked for being old for a prospect. Parks Harber?

Eric A Longenhagen: A million dollar question. Harber isn’t a bad answer. Ryan Ward?

DJ: At what point do you begin evaluating draft eligible amateur players? I assume that’s a difficult balance when you’re also focusing on well over a thousand professional players.

Eric A Longenhagen: I just tuck college and high school stuff into the schedule like usual. Plenty to do here in Phoenix, trip home to Philly and then to Florida on the docket for April. Draft list is here: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Chris: With the potential of a salary floor going into place, maybe it makes the Griffin extension more palatable for the Pirates. Since they will be forced to spend anyways.

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree, but it might mean they want to know what the floor is before they do a deal.

rob: In the Tigers list, I didn’t see any comments about Bryce Rainer’s fielding (40/55).  Do you expect him to stick at SS or could the arm move him to the OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stays at SS

Adam: Which minor league ballpark presents the best viewing experience for the average fan in terms of talent on the field and quality of stradium?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are so many cool minor league parks. Charleston, Lehigh Valley, Charlotte…

David: Odds Aron Estrada (BAL) is the real deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess it depends on your expectations. I felt comfortable moving on from him pretty quickly during work on the top 100. That doesn’t mean he’s bad, I just think he looks like a 45.

Eric A Longenhagen: Really small player.

Jim: You gonna try to catch Jamie Arnold’s debut today?

Eric A Longenhagen: I might break plans to do a little west valley double up, yeah.

Desert Blossom: Have you had any recent looks at SS Jose Fernandez in the DBacks system? I know not to take ST stats too seriously, but a 22 yo with 2 HRs (and 2 more XBHs) already and the potential to stick at SS is intriguing at the very least

Eric A Longenhagen: Great defender, built like a superhero, swing still looks weird but the contact piece of his game was closer to average last year. Good prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, that’s my time. Thanks for stopping by, looking forward to chatting again next week!