Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 5/2/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, everyone. I got my courvoisier right here, what seems to be your query?

Guest: The Aces scratching Lawlar right before first pitch and then not giving a reason after the game is nasty work.

Eric A Longenhagen: I didn’t see that, that’s fun. He’s hit a ball harder already this year than he did in each of the last two seasons, there’s a real chance he’s taken a leap.

Jeb: When does Bubba Chandler come up? Not sure there is much more for him to prove in AAA at this point. Probably not Skenes level good, but level below good?

Eric A Longenhagen: If I had to bet, I’d say he comes up late enough to retain rookie eligibility next season.

bk: If Nimmala can sustain this level of K rate, how much does that improve his prospect stock?

Eric A Longenhagen: Top 20 guy if it holds

Mortons: Has Leo De Vries’ hot start to the season changed your prospect grade on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Off hand I’d say no, but as the Padres org list creeps into view the next couple of weeks he’ll get a fresh coast of paint. Underlying contact data is still in the 40-grade hit tool territory.

Justin: Konnor Griffin seems to have gotten off to a good start with the bat in his first season. If he continues this, does he shoot up the rankings and become a top 20 prospect by end of year?

Eric A Longenhagen: The K’s need to come down for that. 30% is mucho

Jon: Thoughts on Braylon Payne‘s hot start? Great approach, obviously very tooled up, and young for A ball. how would rank Made, Pena, and him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Made clearly in a class of his own. Payne is super interesting but there’s a lot of swing and miss happening, I’d probablty have him third, but I like all three players. Brewers and Cleveland lists are next btw.

Sox fan: Any prospects that have impressed enough where you’re already penciling them in for your next top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: I put Didier Fuentes on this week

Joe14: Thoughts on Jorbit Vivas? Just called up to replace Jazz.

Eric A Longenhagen: Fringe 40-man type, above replacement player but not a lot of impact.

Curious: Gage Jump. Gunnar Hoglund. Do the A’s actually have some interesting starting pitcher prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve tended to think Jump is a reliever, but yeah.

Ken: Gunnar Hoglund makes his MLB today. With his increased velocity this season, do you project him as more than a back of the rotation starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I moved him into the 100 at the end of March: Post-Spring Training Top 100 Prospects Update | FanGraphs Baseball

Sodo Mojo: Do you think Ben Williamson has taken a step forward since your evaluation last spring or is he still a 35+ grade with utility player upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: You could 40 him, it’s just tough to go much higher because it’s 3B only without much power. He can really pick it but I wish there were more versatility.

Mo Baller: I literally can’t stop raking as a 21 y o at AAA, and now my K rate is broaching single digits despite a career high ISO. Has the eval changed to this point? Am I first in line to cover for an injury in Chicago just to get my bat in the lineup, or is there still enough hope for the glove that I’m stuck in AAA working on that all year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hesitant but it’s definitely at the point where he merits another looks and potential reevaluation. He’s still chasing a ton but he might have freaky enough bat control that it isn’t a problem. It’s not like I think he’s bad, my current report has average all-around offense with below-average defense and a short athletic shelf life…

David: Mariners: Other than Montes and Celesten it’s been a pretty quiet start for Mariners top prospects.  Any you are particularly concerned about? Personally just happy to see Emerson/Celesten/Farmelo playing.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think everyone looks about as expected, I’m excited to hunker down on Farmelo as the Mariners list arrives here shortly. Montes I’m still on the skeptical side, the contact rate is holding in that 66% area, which isn’t great.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m bummed about Tai Pette’s start, though.

DF: Love all the prospect work–thank you! I don’t see Sammy Stafura on your Reds list. Seems like he has to be ion there somewhere, likely top 10, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on there at the very bottom, don’t think that guy’s gonna hit.

jeffkilbasa: bazzana – give me reason not to worry especially given clevelands track record of position player top picks

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll be okay, but that’s probably all he’ll be. Not a super physical toolsy guy, he’s fine, not a star. Just the nature of last year’s draft up top imo.

Billy Marlin: Is Victor Acosta doing anything to push Xavier Edwards?

Eric A Longenhagen: Did I miss something? Or did this COVID-era question have extra years of eligibility? 😉

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: According to the broadcast radar gun, Braxton Bragg was sitting 95-96 in Hartford earlier this week and touched 100. Without having strike zone data it’s hard to tell, but it seems like he was throwing too many strikes. Do you have shape numbers (IVB/HB/VAA) for his pitches that might explain why the fastball was surprisingly crummy at missing bats? He’s scheduled for Sunday there again, fwiw

Eric A Longenhagen: Two seam shape, 12 vert, 16 horiz

Eric A Longenhagen: you’re identifying the shape issue correctly, I think

Blaine Crim: Can you use Crim and his MiLB career as an example of what MLB teams look for in evalutating who will succeed at the big league level. I’m thinking mostly of how good his stats have looked compared to the fact that he seemed a non-factor as a prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: Righty-hitting 1B is sooo tough to break through. You’re competing with Goldy and Alonso and Olson, and late bloomer like Christian Walker and Arranda, and then guys falling down the defensive spectrum like Harper and Vladdy…..

Eric A Longenhagen: And everyone about as talented as you, but who hits lefty, is ahead of you in the pecking order.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s good hitter, I’ve enjoyed watching him for all these years even though there’s not a ton of major league value there.

Afterthought: Any insight on why the FCL season is starting in May again instead of June? No complaints from me, more time for complex guys to finish up the year in low-A.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I’m conflicted about it. They end up finishing so early that we see fewer draftees in the league, they end up playing “Bridge League/Instructs”, which is okay I guess but it’s not the same as real games. And then we have situations where guys like Kellon Lindsey basically go a year between when their high school season ends and when they start playing real games again.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they time the season in such a way that you can have a complex season without the draft class creating roster overflow past the 160 man cap

Marge’s Lap Dog: So read your insightful write up on Mey. My question is:  Any chance we see Franconna trusting him as a true closer by June, if he performs consistently.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d look at Mey as if he were Justin Martinez. If he proves over a longer period of time that he can throw strikes, he’ll ascend to that role. The timing on that is probably not just one month, though.

Will: At what point do we say, De Vries is the greatest prospect in padres history sans Tatis? he’s nuts

Eric A Longenhagen: You guys had Trea Turner!

Guest: LDV is getting some attention.  Is it real/warranted or just early season helium?   Do you think he can hold down SS at the major league level?

Eric A Longenhagen: Shedeur Sanders got a lot of attention, it’s not indicative of anything except what people are apt to pay attention to. He’s a damn good prospect but I bet this gets out of control based on the nature of some of these chat questions. Don’t go buying this child’s baseball card for thousands of dollars or anything, guys.

Afterthought: Any dope on the injury/recovery statuses of Luis De León (elbow), Kiefer Lord (TJS), and  Miguel Rodríguez (undisclosed lower half)?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, they keep things pretty close. I’ll be in Florida later this month and try to play Fletch on their backfields and find out.

Rocky Boulder: Any idea what is wrong with Robert Calaz?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s here in AZ playing in Extendido. Not sure what the injury was, another org who doesn’t really wanna say.

Fitts v Dobbins: With Buehler going back for a MRI….who is most likely to fill his spot longterm is this doesn’t go well.

Eric A Longenhagen: Fitts’ persistent injury stuff is troublesome. Might be Dobbins even though I have them ranked in inverse order at the moment.

Mike: He’s an older guy, but any intrigue with Ernesto martinez JR? Think he can sustain this contact rate and hard hit rate?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there is. Great body, the kind you want to be on long-term, could have a window of relevance, pitch selection has gotten so so so much better than when he was young.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, the video of him shot by his dad or trainer or whoever is still quoted very often in my houeshold. Ernesto Martinez JR hitting bombs in the bp

Eric A Longenhagen: ooo la la

boobie miles: You seem to be the low guy on L. Montes? Swing and miss rate move you off him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, to be clear it’s not like I think he sucks. I just think he’s more of a platoon guy who’s still in A ball.

Some kinda Mook: Duno kinda looks like he’s crushing it so far in 2025. K-rate wayyyy down, and he’s still running a career-high ISO. It’s allllll coming together…

Eric A Longenhagen: K rate is down but the underlying contact stuff is still scary. Butt is bailing toward 3B a ton, he needs to adjust.

Kevin: Are there a few players you’re excited about seeing with complex league starting?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gabriel Rodriguez

Guest: It appears the Royals are now getting Cags reps in the OF. That always seemed like a good fit given the arm. Did they start him out at first because it seemed like an easier position to begin with?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they started him there because he had experience at 1B in college.

Keith: Does this Denzer Guzman “breakout” seem real to you? Is he a guy that could end up in the top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a chance, yes. It’s a real uptick in power. The contact piece is still suspect, but if you’re playing a good SS and hitting for power, you’re a player.

Alex: Of the 3 volatile 40+ FV OF for the Giants (Bo Davidson, Rainer Arias, Dakota Jordan) – which do you think has the best chance to pop? Do you have any gut feeling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bo

Ryan: How is this year’s draft in terms of depth? I know the top isn’t great, but is it a deep draft with potential impact players in round 2?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like the high school hitters enough to say yes, though I’d imagine there’s a point where the bonus amount isn’t enough for them to sign

Ken: Henry Bolte striking out less, but also doing far less damage at the plate. Discuss.

Eric A Longenhagen: Just taking a quick glance at his data, without looking to see if there’s been a mechanical change or anything…

Eric A Longenhagen: 67% contact rate, 2 degree avg launch, 54% swing rate, 35% hard hit rate, 109 max exit…

Eric A Longenhagen: So that’s 30 hit, 50-ish raw, playing down due to chase and lack of launch

Eric A Longenhagen: I swear I’m not *trying* to be a dick about Henry Bolte the last couple of years, but I’m not trying to pull punches either.

CB: Do you think Henry Baez could be a 4th or 5th starter for the Padres in his prime?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Brandon: Any updates on Joel Hurtado since your last evaluation?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s one of the hardest-throwers in the minors so far this year, think he’s touched 103 or 104

Philip: Bryan Balzer seems to be getting a lot of helium as a possible padres pop up prospect. What have you heard/seen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Had a few outings at the start of ST when he was up to 98 or so, velo was way down before camp broke. Haven’t checked in on him since then. Interesting story, though. American dad, born and grew up in Japan, signed as an int’l amateur, had TJ, now he’s back and has flashed velo. Definitely a prospect.

Guest: Can you explain Sal Stewart’s grade a bit more? I dont get the 45 hit grade, since all he’s done is hit since he was signed. Is there underlying data that makes you skeptical it will translate?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think I go into thorough detail in his scouting report as to why, I knew it’d be a conclusion I had to support with cogent thought and analysis because it’s counterintuitive.  I wrote 630 words about just him, is there anything specific in there you want me to flesh out more for you here?

Draft Man: Any idea of when a draft update will occur on the board? I realize you are very busy with the team lists in parallel, so I just want to say thank you for all the incredible quality and depth of scouting data.

Eric A Longenhagen: Soon, Gerth and I have to huddle on that, just got college trackman data update, have to circle back with some sources, etc. Appreciate your patience on the draft update, it needs a fresh coat.

MF Luder: I love the description “command artist.” Was there anything else that stood out to you about Jedixson Paez that caused you to add him to the back end of the post-spring top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was on the offseason top 100. just a freaky command guy with all kinds of deception, a good 2sm/changeup combo… I like him, think he’ll be on the 40man after this season and has a shot to debut next year. His stuff is a little more vulnerable to damage than you want it to be and I could understand if you think his ceiling’s a little lower.

re: Joel Hurtado: You’re saying Joel Hurtado in the Angels system touched 103 or 104? His last update from the winter on The Board had him topping out at 98 mph.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Phil: Ah, I see Popovich is stepping down, very sad. Would Francona count as a baseball parallel, or is it simply impossible given the less central role of a manager?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah man, I hadn’t seen that yet but I worried it might be a thing. the Tito situation is different because, while he’s had health stuff, I don’t think he’s had a *stroke* ya know?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pop is wonderful and I wish I appreciated him more while I was young. Those Pistons and Spurs teams from that era were instrumental for my adolescent understanding and enjoyment of the game. Eventually I got sick of how good they were, my Grizz were under their thumb a lot of the time.

Oddball Herrera: Any indication that Mayer’s offensive outburst has included doing better on breaking pitches?  “swinging over pitches” seems to have been the ding against him to this point

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question, lemme take a peek.

Eric A Longenhagen: While that loads for me, lemme take a few more…

Guest: Is there any point in keeping Yesavage at low A any longer? Can he reach AA by the end of the year?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, yes.

Alex Haese: Very disappointed in your prospect write-up of Jake Bauers in 2018. It mentions nothing about how he would have more career Pitcher War than Hitter War xD

Eric A Longenhagen: lmao, I loved that guy, and I’d never shame anyone for having a big league career as long as his. It shows how tough it is to separate yourself when your defensive fit is 1B.

Eric A Longenhagen: Marcelo: has seen 65 breaking balls this year per Synergy

Eric A Longenhagen: 41% swing, 25% chase, 27% miss. Those are all better than average

Eric A Longenhagen: Numbers are way worse versus offspeed stuff, changeups and splitters

Guest: what’s the time frame for holding a FV? is that a peak? you put an Espinosa comp on a 50 recently (I forget who), he had I think three ~2.5-ish WAR seasons but a lot of folks thought he was trash because of the other, worse years

Eric A Longenhagen: In short: average WAR production during your pre-free agency years where 2-ish annual WAR is a 50.

J: So, I wanted to ask this any way, and the list today gives it immediacy. Chase Burns is basically throwing 4 IP a game, I suppose as a way to preserve health. And it may be that all the Reds will want is for him to pitch 6 IP a game. But at what point, and I think we are past it, are baseball franchises diminishing the actual value of pitchers?

That said, it may just be a tacit admittance that Burns (and others) simply can’t sustain what they’re doing for more than 90 pitches. But it feels backwards.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we’re already at the point where the value curve for pitchers has shifted, it’s flattened. The talented band that constitutes the margin is bigger, teams consider more players to be fungible, especially pitchers. It’s probably decreased the value of a certain class of pitcher and increased some others, like he guys who can sustain huge stuff for 180 frames or so, as well as some of the fringe relievers who get to have a more robust big league career because teams are more apt to shuttle guys off and on the roster than before.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok guys, I’ve gotta go help someone move some furniture. Thanks for stopping by, great questions this week. Molly Shannon, call me.