Post-Spring Training Top 100 Prospects Update

Over the past six weeks, prospects from across the league have participated in spring training activity in Arizona and Florida. Some got into big league games, or participated in the Spring Breakout showcase; others have played in minor league games on the backfields for most of the last month. This spring activity has been enough to move the prospect needle for a handful of players. With the last minor league camps set to break today and extended spring training on the horizon, I’ve touched up my Top 100 list from the offseason to reflect relevant changes that players have made, as well as changes to my own thinking about them.

As you read, there are a couple of things to keep in mind, especially if you’re new to FanGraphs prospect stuff. First, the “Top 100” title is arbitrary SEO nonsense; I rank players as deep as I have them graded as 50 FV prospects or better, and as of this update, that’s 114 guys. Second, remember that Future Value is a value grade. The tools and ultimate potential upside of a player matter a lot, as does the length and consistency of a player’s performance track record and their proximity to the majors. There are players who have talent upside better than their FV grade, but if they’re risky for whatever reason, or if they’re in the low minors, I want to reflect that risk/time element in their grade.

Finally, remember that an actualized “50” is an average everyday player at a given position. Not “average” in the sense that I’m averaging every big leaguer who played that position to create a performance baseline. Rather, “average” here means that the player would fall toward the middle of the pack when we’re talking about the top 30-ish players at their position across a multi-year window. That’s a high bar. Really excellent, tenured players tend to occupy their spot on a big league roster for long periods of time. It’s hard for prospects to crack into that All-Star-caliber group, and even harder to sustain some measure of production for six-plus years of team control. Forty- and 45-grade players are good big leaguers, too, and there are many more of them across the pro baseball talent distribution than there are 50s.

This list overwhelmingly reflects my individual evaluations and grades, with sourced opinions from scouts and executives contributing to select players where I needed to fill a gap in my viewing (living in Arizona means that I more often need to patch holes in Florida), or, in rare cases, to cross-check my thinking. The in-person looks I’ve gotten at the majority of this group over the last 13 months, plus data and video, have contributed to my conclusions.

Below you’ll find the updated list, followed by notes on who moved and why, and then a rundown of the clusters of players that formed around similar profiles throughout the list, with further commentary where appropriate. There are some instances where I think it’s more illuminating to talk about the new names in the context of their clusters. Anyone who I’ve added has had their report updated on The Board, where you can find tool grades, pitch repertoires, full scouting reports, and more. Players whose FV grade has changed have a ↑↑ or ↓↓ in the trend column of the table, with single arrows indicating that a player’s rank has changed enough to point it out, even though their grade has not.

Hitters Who Moved Into the 50 FV Tier
George Lombard Jr., SS, New York Yankees
Zyhir Hope, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Konnor Griffin, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Alan Roden, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
Jaison Chourio, CF, Cleveland Guardians

George Lombard Jr. showed up to camp looking much stronger and with a totally different level of power, enough to counter his below-average contact ability if it turns out he’s still whiff-prone like he was last season. There’s a chance the added strength has also made him better able to move the barrel around. I wrote a ton about Zyhir Hope in his updated scouting report on The Board and you’re encouraged to check that out, as well as my freshly cut video of him. The highlights: Hope, who turned 20 in January, has gained 40 pounds in the year and a half since he signed and is now 5-foot-10, 230 pounds; most of the added mass is muscle. He has strikeout risk, and the way he’ll trend physically is tough to peg. But his speed at his size is remarkable, and his power is likely to play in part because Hope has such short levers. His report reads a lot like lower-minors Jasson Domínguez and Hope has now hit for a month against a better class of pitching than he saw late in last year’s Cal and Fall Leagues. I wrote about Konnor Griffin’s swing changes and encouraging early-career look in center field on the Pirates prospect list. You’ll find more on Alan Roden in his cluster below. Jaison Chourio is running better for me this spring than before, with plus times that indicate he has a better shot to stay in center field than I gave him during the offseason. He’s still driving the ball into the ground an awful lot, but the quality of his at-bats and his ability to grind and battle until he either walks or gets a mistake to hit is special.

Pitchers Who Moved Into the 50 FV Tier
Jackson Ferris, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Richard Fitts, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Sacramento Athletics
Logan Henderson, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Jonah Tong, RHP, New York Mets
Luis Mey, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Jurrangelo Cijntje, SHP, Seattle Mariners

Several of these pitchers are throwing harder this spring. Jackson Ferris’ fastball averaged 93.5 mph last year but has more often been in the 94-96 mph range early in 2025. It has uphill plane, and opposing upper-level hitters, including big leaguers, have had trouble parsing his delivery. Richard Fitts (up three and half ticks, topping out at 99) and Gunnar Hoglund (91.5 mph last year, 93-97 mph right now) previously had lower-impact starter skill sets but look like mid-rotation types at their new velocities. Logan Henderson now has an average curveball to go with his usual plus fastball and changeup. It’s enough of a breaking ball to give him fourth starter projection, and he may clearly be one of Milwaukee’s best five starters in just a few weeks if he can sustain the 94-96 mph heat I’ve seen from him this month. He was 95-97 early last year, too, and ended up sitting in the 92-94 range after dealing with oblique issues.

Jonah Tong showed up to camp looking stronger and is no longer so frail as to doubt that he can work 150-ish innings year after year. Though he had one three-walk meltdown during a big league spring training game, Luis Mey has thrown strikes for me the last several times I’ve seen him, dating back to last year’s Arizona Fall League. I’ve seen him touch 102 with hellacious tail this spring. He looks primed to play a role at the back of the Reds bullpen this year, especially with Alexis Díaz already on the shelf. The switch-pitching Jurrangelo Cijntje has been up to 99 as a righty and has a four-pitch mix from that side. He enters pro ball with a nearly 100-inning foundation, and his secondary stuff is evolving as Cijntje works more with a changeup against opposite-handed hitters and incorporates a new slider he added this spring.

Slid a Grade
Hagen Smith, LHP, Chicago White Sox
Caden Dana, RHP, Los Angeles Angels

Both of these guys have struggled to throw strikes this spring. In Hagen Smith’s case, he has been apt to lean on his excellent slider as he falls behind and becomes very predictable as a result. Things for Smith are not as severe as when Asa Lacy started to show warning signs that he couldn’t throw strikes, but like Lacy, Smith has been more often walk-prone than not when you look at his entire college career rather than just the final season. The consequences of falling behind in pro ball are more severe, and Smith experienced that this spring. In Caden Dana’s case, I’m growing worried his 2024 (which included a career-low walk rate) was an anomaly, rather than part of an improving trend in his ability to throw strikes. The shape of his fastball requires him to be fairly precise with his location, and he has been far from that early this year. His durability and breaking ball quality still have him in the no. 4 starter bucket.

Now I’ll take you through the update top to bottom, starting with the upper-echelon FV tiers, and then turning to the 50 FV players, where I’ve highlighted clusters of prospects with similar characteristics or profiles. Some of the groupings will be pretty self-explanatory, while others merit additional discussion. Remember, you can see scouting reports and tool grades for all of these players on The Board if you want additional detail on why players are evaluated and ranked the way they are.

Roki Sasaki’s fastball has lost some vertical movement compared to his NPB fastball (it hovered around 15 inches in the below outing), and he’s scattering his stuff more than he is commanding it. Either of those issues could be attributed to the nuanced differences between the MLB baseball and the NPB sphere, which he’ll probably (hopefully) adjust to over time. Sasaki is a 23-year-old who is still touching 101 mph, and his all-world splitter (which sometimes comes out of his hand with the gentle forward tumble of a mid-80s knuckleball) has been every bit as nasty as advertised. His slider is a little better now than when he was with Chiba Lotte, and he still looks like the best “prospect” in baseball this year even though he didn’t throw strikes the other night.

This group has held serve across the board this spring. Roman Anthony and Dylan Crews are big league-ready toolsheds who’ve performed throughout the minors. If Crews’ center field defense were playing to the level of his pure speed, he’d be ahead of Anthony. After them are Sebastian Walcott and Samuel Basallo, the odds-on favorites to be the top two prospects on this list by mid-season and beyond (assuming the graduations of the fellas ahead of them); each of them has a chance to be a 65 or 70 FV prospect 12 months from now. Basallo is throwing well again after his arm backed up a little bit last season. Andrew Painter will start to see game action during extended spring training; he’s starting the season on a delay so his innings limit can coincide with the end of the season and a potential Phillies playoff run. Kristian Campbell’s ultimate defensive position is still unsettled, but even if he ends up being hidden in left field, he’s going to rake enough to be a star anyway. Friend of the ‘Graph Jake Mintz of Yahoo! Sports comp’d Campbell’s swing to that of a young Yuli Gurriel, and I’m jealous for not having thought of that myself. Campbell broke camp with the big league club.

I’ve spent a lot of time on the Dodgers’ complex this spring (for reasons you’ll soon read), and Dalton Rushing has continued to look like an All-Star catcher who does everything well. Another friend of the ‘Graph, Lance Brozdowski, wrote on his Substack that he’s worried Jackson Jobe’s bat-missing ability might settle below the aggregate projections because Jobe’s delivery is easy for hitters to time. It’s an interesting observation, and I think it’s the sort of thing that prevents Jobe from having quite the same ceiling as Painter, but I also think the command piece of Jobe’s profile will be sharp enough for him to consistently be a 3-WAR type of starter. And finally, Carson Williams rounds out this tier because I have the least confidence in his hit tool of this group. What he brings in every other area is sensational, however.

As with the preseason list, this group kicks off with Braves catcher Drake Baldwin and Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw, two well-rounded, big league-ready above-average regulars who both broke camp with their big club. They are tracking in line with projections. Phillies shortstop prospect Aidan Miller has looked a little better defensively this spring. He’s tracking like he’ll be a top no. 3-5 overall prospect within the year as players ahead of him graduate. Twins outfielder Walker Jenkins, a very well-rounded player with elite feel for the strike zone, is in that mix, too, but injuries have limited his track record, so he’s a few slots behind the Baldwin/Shaw/Miller group right now.

The next cluster of players features plus or better defenders at premium positions, and they either have power right now (Twins center fielder Emmanuel Rodriguez), or have good long-term power projection (Diamondbacks shortstop Jordan Lawlar and Padres catcher Ethan Salas) but are probably going to strike out quite a bit. Reds catcher Alfredo Duno is an even more extreme version of this profile. He has a nutty power/speed/arm toolset for his age. Injuries and lost playing time (especially on defense) mean that he’s currently sushi raw, but he has a shot to be a four- or five-tool catcher, with the hit tool being the volatile variable.

There hasn’t been much change to any of the grades of the upper echelon guys compared to my pre-season list, but one of the exceptions is A’s first baseman Nick Kurtz, who has climbed into this tier. Kurtz has continued to look like a heart-of-the-order force, and it has come against a better class of pitching than he faced last year. No offense to the pitchers in last year’s Arizona Fall League, but well-rested upper-level and big league arms have much better stuff than they did, and Kurtz has performed seamlessly against them this spring. He and Bryce Eldridge (more power projection, less contact ability and worse defense) are in a tier of their own among the first base prospects across baseball, but they are first base prospects and the bar for offensive performance at that position is very high. Jasson Domínguez stacks with those two because, as a bad left fielder, he is essentially also a bottom-of-the-spectrum defender with enough of a contact/power combo to be a good player anyway.

Cardinals lefty Quinn Mathews moves into this tier, as he’s retained his velo spike from last season and has shoved this spring, including against big leaguers. I have Mathews and Rockies starter Chase Dollander separated a tad from the rest of the big league-ready pitchers in this tier because they have superior command and fastball shape compared to the others. I’ve re-ordered a couple of the pitchers toward the back of the 55 FV tier to lean on proximity, with Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler and Mets right-hander Brandon Sproat, who both look ready for primetime, sliding ahead of Nationals righty Jarlin Susana and White Sox lefty Noah Schultz, who have huge long-term upside but are further away. Schultz has still had fastball playability issues this spring, while Susana’s command is still a little loose. The high-variance risk/upside profiles of Susana and Schultz are similar to that of Padres catcher Ethan Salas, with whom they now stack on the overall list.

Reds righty Chase Burns and Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski have a little more relief risk than the rest of this contingent, but their peak stuff is nasty enough that if things click for them from a command standpoint, they (along with Susana and Schultz) could be in the 60 FV tier a year from now. Here’s Burns’ final spring outing from a couple days ago, when he was 98-101 with natural cut and a plus-plus slider.

Now let’s turn to the clusters of 50 FV players.

Drop any of the players in this cluster into the draft and they’d be a threat to go first overall. By virtue of prospect graduations naturally occurring ahead of them, the players here are all in position to be ranked closer to 15th overall by the end of the season. Marcelo Mayer sits atop this cluster because of both his proximity to the majors and his power. I still worry too much about his issues with secondary stuff to have 55’d him. Colt Emerson and Angel Genao have the most overt physical projection and power potential of the remaining names. You can find my thoughts on Max Clark on the Tigers list from earlier this month. Kevin McGonigle has performed well this spring against better pitching than he faced last year, when he generated video game TrackMan data against mostly Low-A pitching. His power ceiling is fairly limited due to his size, but his contact ability is the best of this group. Leo De Vries and George Lombard Jr. are power-over-hit types. Jesús Made is a 70 athlete with plus bat speed from both sides of the plate. He’s got a smedium frame right now, and will break camp with the Brewers’ Low-A Carolina roster. Travis Bazzana is the worst defender of this bunch but still looks like a quick-moving everyday second baseman. The players here are easily the ones most likely to trend into the 55 and 60 FV tiers throughout this season.

I like the offensive potential of these players enough that, in the event that any of them ends up at 1B/DH, I still think they’ll be productive everyday options.

Jac Caglianone is the hitter from this group with the best chance to take a leap into the upper tiers throughout the year. His at-bat quality this spring has been better than his chase-prone prior seasons, and his swing looks a little shorter. His spring has been amazing, but Cam Smith isn’t really pulling the ball, and that’s something to watch as he faces big league velocity every day. Chase DeLauter doesn’t have strikeout risk so much as there’s risk associated with his injury history. Coby Mayo struck out in half his Grapefruit League at-bats. Hope has been on a real heater for the last two weeks of camp and homered again for me on Saturday. After the game, Zyhir had hauled all of his gear most of the way back to the team’s facility when a little kid who had made him a custom t-shirt called him back for a picture. He walked all the way back, accepted the shirt with delight, spent some time with the kid and his family, took a picture, and made everyone’s day.

Chase Petty and AJ Smith-Shawver are premium athletes with huge stuff that plays down a bit due to their command, which is unpolished at present. Based on the level of their athleticism, I’d expect bigger seasons backloaded during their years of team control, with messier seasons on the front end. Jackson Ferris has had a velo spike (more in his blurb and above); now let’s see if he can sustain improved command. Hagen Smith’s strikes have backed up this spring. Thomas White arguably has the best ceiling of this group, but he’s also the farthest away from making his debut.

Kyle Teel’s foggy defensive projection is more about how many other catchers are in Chicago’s upper-level mix right now than his abilities. Luke Keaschall and Josue Briceño are coming off injury. Healthy Briceño was a promising defensive catcher, while healthy Keaschall was a bad second baseman trying to learn the outfield.

This was Kevin McGonigle’s group prior to his spring. JJ Wetherholt has the best shot to leap out of this cluster next.

This group is structured with the dudes who have better fastball playability at the top and the 45-grade command types toward the back.

Joe Mack tops this group because he’s pretty easily the best defender of the bunch, a potential Gold Glove catcher. Alex Freeland slides from the “Everyday Middle Infielder” group because he looked wholly overmatched against big league pitching this spring.

As self-explanatory as any cluster. Josue De Paula slid a bit in the rankings because I’ve been waiting and waiting for him to absolutely smoke a ball in front of me, and it just hasn’t happened.

Grant Taylor has been up to 101 mph this spring and will show you four plus pitches. He arguably has the most upside of this group, but by far the shortest track record.

Welbyn Francisca has freaky hand-eye and bat-to-ball talent, and has looked better at shortstop this spring than he did last year. Jonah Tong is a unicorn because of his nutty fastball ride and “due north” arm slot. His secondary stuff looks better this spring than it did last year. In my Breakout game look at Cijntje, he pitched lefty to Travis Bazzana and then righty to everyone else, including Guardians switch-hitters who are worse as righties. I wonder if, rather than Jurrangelo switch which arm he’s using throughout his starts, he could work exclusively right-handed as a starter and then come out of the bullpen as a lefty specialist in between his turns in the rotation? This would allow Cijntje’s gift to play at the big league level even if his right-handed pitch mix ends up being so much better than his lefty pallet that it basically never makes sense for him to choose to pitch lefty.

These guys are all basically ready for the bigs and are good, if low-ceiling’d, hitters. I’d be surprised if any of them turns into a 55 or better, but I’d be just as surprised if any of them turns into a 40. The way Roden’s hands work causes his bat path to be flat, which really lets him cover the top of the strike zone. It results in Roden making some concessions against well-located breaking stuff at the bottom of the zone, which he often drove into the ground last year. He’s dipping deeper into his lower body against those pitches this spring, giving him a better chance to do damage against them. Multiple scouts I spoke with have everyday grades on Roden based on their looks this spring.

From a talent standpoint, this group is similar to the Warren/Lowder/Messick, etc. striation above, but they’ve all dealt with frequent and/or recent injury.

Am I missing a center fielder who belongs in this mix? Sources, get at me on that in April, please.

Moisés Chace came to camp out of shape and with less velocity. Carson Whisenhunt’s breaking ball looked a little better this spring. Mey started in just one pro season (2019) and has since been developed solely as a reliever. You can quibble with the way pure relievers should be “valued” in this exercise, but I think reasonable folks would agree we’d want to have guys like Edwin Díaz absolutely stuffed in the top 20 of a Top 100 list, and I think you can make a case toward the back of the list for guys on the set-up man/closer line, like Tanner Scott and José Alvarado have tended to be, especially when they’re on the doorstep of the big leagues as Mey is.

Improved center field defense would help allow each member of this group to continue to have an offensive flaw (for Tai Peete, it’s strikeouts; for Jett Williams and Jaison Chourio, it’s a lack of in-game power) and still profile.

Xavier Isaac (strikeouts) and Nobel Meyer (walks) are the distressed fellas in this cluster. Six to eight weeks is a good window to give those guys before re-assessment. Jeferson Quero (shoulder surgery) is back but struggled this spring. He probably deserves at least a month or two to get right, though his situation is more complicated because he’s on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster. Jonny Farmelo (2024 torn ACL), Travis Sykora (offseason hip surgery), Chayce McDermott (lat strain), Tink Hence (strained rib cage), and Edgardo Henriquez (broken foot) should be back this year. Alejandro Rosario, River Ryan, and Ricky Tiedemann are all coming off TJ, with Tiedemann the closest of those three to returning.