Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/15

Eric A Longenhagen: Morning. Link:

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-516/

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-516/

Eric A Longenhagen: And chat…

Buck: Small sample size for sure. But is there anything I can take from Acuna’s hot start in Double A?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, especially not since last week’s chat was made up of an overwhelming number of back seat Player Dev coordinators criticizing his promotion.

Greg: Any new draft buzz in the top 5?

Eric A Longenhagen: McKay’s velo is down a bit, he’s also working on a new cutter. Some people who say those two things are related. The ratio of people who prefer him as a bat is growing, at least among the people I’m talking to. Kyle Wright has been dominant of late and will be #1 on my board on its release. Rest of the top 5 is more or less the same, some combo of Lewis, Gore, Greene.

Tim: Hi Eric. I’ve heard some chatter that Tyler Mahle’s FB has played up this year – touching 97 or so. Does that change his outlook or is he still looking at a Mike Leake type solid #3/4 starter ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, wrote about him like a week and a half ago: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-54/

Eric A Longenhagen: Sitting more 93-94 according to the scout I spoke with. Really great command of his fastball and slider, some deception in the delivery. Definitely has moved up.

Mark: Lucas Sims seems to have taken a step this year so far in Triple-A. What are your thoughts on his progress, and what his future role could be in Atlanta, both short-term and long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. Wrote about him on Monday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-515/

Eric A Longenhagen: Still not throwing as many strikes as you think he is because he’s getting a lot of swings and misses on his fastball up above the zone, but the fastball/curveball and the pitchability he’s shown with those two so far this year is much better than anything he’s done the last two years.

Eric A Longenhagen: He at least looks like a good relief option right now, which is more than I thought he was after last season when I was worried he command was so bad that he wouldn’t stick in the bigs at all.

mtsw: Kyle Tucker is rising in a lot of rankings. What’s a realistic ETA for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a 20 year old OF in A-ball and in an org that has a very crowded outfield situation in the bigs AND at Triple-A. I have no idea when his ETA is, but I bet it isn’t soon.

Minty: Happ and Zimmer have both been promoted within the last week. Any updates on them since you did team prospect rankings?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, same guys. Which is to say I think they’re excellent prospects. I expect Zimmer to have a period of swing and miss/adjustment.

GPT: What did you think of Ricardo Genoves? He was catching Camilo Doval in the video you posted.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good body, some promising receiving skills. That’s basically it for now, that was the only day I’ve seen him.

Drew: Rogelio Armenteros: true backend rotation type or more of an org arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has the repertoire depth to pitch at the back of a rotation but there’s some Collmenterish deception that might be letting his stuff play up in the minors in a way it may not in the bigs.

Eric A Longenhagen: wrote about him recently here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-59/

Johnson: Cole Tucker seems to be playing well. What is his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Upside is above average everyday guy. Lots of physical projection, there’s a chance he grows into more power than is typical at short.

Nick: Is Rhys Hoskins’ power legit? I know there were questions but he hit a fair share of his homers last year away from Reading & already has 9 this year

Eric A Longenhagen: Power is legit, had a scout put a 7 on it in the offseason. Also spoke to a scout yesterday who watched 15 games of him and didn’t see him hit a single breaking ball during that span. It’s certainly good news that he’s hitting but I’m still a bit more skeptical than I typically would be with a prospect who has a track record of hitting in pro ball the way Hoskins has. I’ll see him in…2 weeks? So hopefully that’ll cement my opnion.

Luis Robert: I’m officially a free agent on Saturday. Hearing anything from your sources on where I might end up?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pencil me in for St Louis, hedging with Houston.

Blackburn: What is Ke’Bryan Hayes’s upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Average-to-above everyday guy. Great glove, bat to ball and on base skills, little power.

Larry: I know Gohara got hurt last night in his first Double A start, but was he even ready for that jump? Seems way too aggressive.

Eric A Longenhagen: Can I asked what you thought of the Allard, Soroka and Acuna promotions?

Zigs: Honeywell looks to be in quite the groove. The stuff looks particularly unhittable. Have your opinions on him changed? Is he one of those guys that while he lacks a premium pitch, the sum of the parts allows the whole package to play up?

Eric A Longenhagen: Opinion is more or less the same. Ranked him 36th in all of ball. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-100-prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: But yes, he gets the most out of his stuff because he sequences all of those pitches really wonderfully.

Colin: LaMonte Wade is slashing an impressive .330/.465/.486 in AA with even more impressive plate discipline. Is it still assumed he’ll never have the power to be a MLB regular and more of a 4th OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t say “assumed” but that remains the general opinion. You can find scouts who just think he’ll hit enough to play a bigger role than that, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: Just not for power

Moltar: It’s clear to me at this point that d’Arnaud is unlikely to be healthy and productive enough for the Mets to continue to count on him going forward. Do they have a “catcher of the future” in the system? Tomas Nido, whose early season numbers don’t look great? Or is it more likely somebody not yet acquired?

Eric A Longenhagen: I got mixed opinions about Nido during the Mets org audit with some thinking he had a chance to be a low-end every day guy and others putting an org grade on him. Not off to a great start. Some like Ali Sanchez who’s struggling at Columbia but even if you like him it isn’t like he’s close to the bigs.

Ian: Can Ibandel Isabel become a Joey Galoo type player…already has 10 home runs( some of them have been measured for 440 ft) and strikes out a lot? What do you think Erix?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not as athletic as Gallo, 1B-only with swing and miss issues and yes, there’s big power there, but the Cal League is caricaturing it right now. I’m skeptical.

BarryBaker: The Reds are stacked in good relief pitchers…Wandy Peralta, Ariel Hernandez, Jimmy Herget,Alejandro Chacin..who has the best outcome results long term

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Herget.

Dave: A few weeks ago you mentioned hearing positively from scouts regarding Ben Gamel, giving you a reason to pay more attention to him. Given his hot start with Seattle, could you elaborate on what you heard?

Eric A Longenhagen: Patient, has improved his timing and, generally, his swing since 2014, good hand-eye, hits balls gap to gap for copious doubles. Plays hard. Solid big leaguer.

Jonathan Sher: Are scouts whiffing on Astros catching prospect Garrett Stubbs? Elite defense, BB>K in AA, above-average power for a catcher, speed on bases and improved at ever level. Is he being sold short because he doesn’t look like a catcher? (he’s lean, not stocky)

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s apprehension because scouts have never seen someone his size catch a full season of games.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s not lean like young Benito Santiago was. He’s small, like my size. I love the tools and Stubbs has been a sleeper favorite of mine since he was at USC but there are certainly reasons to temper expectations. Also he’s 23 and hitting .240 at Double-A so it isn’t as if we’re talking about Altuve-level performance that’s being ignored.

Jason: Any opinion on Evan White at Kentucky? I think with his athleticism and pure hitting, he could rise a bit heading into the draft, but then again I am really high on him.

Eric A Longenhagen: You

Eric A Longenhagen: YOU!

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I hit enter too fast, hold on…

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re right, he’s moving up in part because there just aren’t any college bats in this class. To fill the vacuum, the baseball gods have sent us a bunch of weirdos. The best college bat in the class might be a pitcher. The two best outfielders are polar opposites of one another. We’ve got a couple of redshirt juniors who were passed over last year. And we have White, the weirdest of them all, a skinny, backwards 1B who is a plus runner.

Bobby: When a prospect is promoted to the majors for the first time, why are they “recalled”? How can you be RE-called if you were never called before?

Eric A Longenhagen:

Murse Wigwam: Jake Bauers’ power was always in question, but the hit tool was not. Now what is he, all question marks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, he’s the age of a college junior playing ball at the doorstep of the Majors.

Erik: You mentioned Phillies pitchers as one of the groups of prospects whose stock has rose so far this season. Which guys in particular are moving up?

Eric A Longenhagen: The guys with the badass names. Seranthony Dominguez, Adonis Medina, Sixto Sanchez.

JP: Do you have any notes on Matt Sauer? Where do you think he gets taken in the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mid-90s, holds it deep into games, chance for a plus slider, has some relief risk.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say he goes around 20.

KevinWC: Have you been out to see Yanio Perez in the SAL league? Any thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him this spring. 1B/LF-only for me but has huge power.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I’m learning about the draft. Teams generally seem to say that they just draft the best player available. I know the Rays for example take prep bats early in the hopes of getting a controllable superstar, which this year would mean someone like Lewis or Gore (or Beck, whom I know you don’t like that high). But since they hope to be competitive in a season or two when Adames, De Leon, Honeywell, and Snell 2.0 are established, would they lean towards someone like Wright who could make the club for that window?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’ll go best player available. I think they lean on upside as a BPA tiebreaker but I don’t think it’s their end all, be all.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also keep in mind it’s a relatively new scouting director there so it might be a bit early to draw conclusions about their strategy, though I agree with you that they hunt upside in the minors/draft/j2 as a group.

Dan: Has your opinion changed significantly on Hoy-Jun Park?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not yet, still more of a util profile for me. Keep in mind he’s repeating the level.

DTH: I’m feeling better about Trevor Clifton than Dylan Cease, largely because of the lack of doubt about his starting ability and his success at higher levels. Is this: an OK opinion, dumb, or super dumb?

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw Clifton really bad this spring. Velo down into the 80s, was getting tagged by low minor league hitters. Haven’t checked to see where his stuff is at since then but I know I’ve been surprised that he’s pitching so well.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d take Cease if given the choice.

some dude: In the honorable mentions section of your Nats writeup, you wrote about Daniel Johnson, that he “might require a mechanical overhaul at the plate to hit in pro ball. If he does, he’s a dude.” So far this season he’s slashing .302/.355/.587 with 9 HR and making a solid amount of contact (17% K rate). Something real there? Or just a case of a small sample size from a college bat in low-A?

Eric A Longenhagen: Would certainly like to see him challenged with a promotion after the draft but he has big league tools. 7 run, good bat speed. I don’t know how Juan Soto’s injury complicates Washington’s outfield situation in the minors but it’s worth noting that it could be why Johnson is still own there. They might not have anyone in extended ready to come up and replace him in Hagerstown.

Tom: Who are some options for the Mariners at #17?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t have them connected to anyone but I think it’d be good for them if one of the good prep arms (like Baz or Carlson) falls that far.

Brandon M: Who are some of the pitchers that could be around in the late first round?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of the prep arms that have a hole in their profile (Trevor Rogers is a big lefty who touches 98 but he’s almost 20 and the breaking ball isn’t great, Jeremiah Estrada is small and has had a mixed spring but will touch 95 with a plus change, Hans Crouse has a plus curveball and throws hard but his delivery is relieverish, etc) and a bunch of the college arms that are likely relievers, like Alex Lange, Nate Pearson, Brendon LIttle or perhaps Tanner Houck.

Seanto: Just traded for Isan Diaz. Tell me something good (pretty please).

Eric A Longenhagen: Has rare power for a middle infielder and gets to it in games, also has a good idea of the strike zone.

Eric A Longenhagen: But next time I encourage pre-trade research and list consultation. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-25-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

Rob: Hard not to scout the stat line in a deep dynasty, so let me ask you in what order you would add Gatewood, Mountcastle or Colton Welker.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mounty, Welker, Gatewood.

Dylan: I’ve read a lot of draft things saying the A’s could take JB Bukauskas, but for some reason the thought just doesn’t excite me. Who’s a fun, exciting pick that could be there at 6?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bukauskas is pretty exciting. Short of a falling McKay (the way Puk fell last year) I can’t think of anyone I’d rather have at six that, a month out, I expect to be there.

DTH: what’s your opinion on Seth Romero? I’ve heard analysts say he’s a top 10 talent who will fall to the second or third round because of the character stuff, agree?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do.

CamdenWarehouse: How much amateur positioning is done by the fielders vs. coaches? Can you learn anything about a player’s instincts by how they are positioned?

Eric A Longenhagen: There is some shifting going on at the college level now. Instincts almost always means they get a good initial jump, have a good internal clock for hosing runners.

Jerry: How far could Jeren Kendall slide and where could you see him going?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just on tools I think it will be hard for him to fall out of the top 12ish picks.

Sam: Do Thairo Estrada, Hoy-Jun Park or Tito Polo have the ceiling to develop into a top 10 organizational prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the org. Given the state of the NYY system it’s unlikely. Estrada and Park could be UTIL types, Polo I left off the Yankees list completely (he’s a mature bodied 5-9, among other things) but he’s got some tools and probably should have been on there as at least a potential bench outfielder.

Jerry: Who could be a surprise top 10 selection in June?

Eric A Longenhagen: David Peterson

Zach: Does McKay have number 1 starter upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: No

Franklin Barreto: Would you like a side of crow with that order of “your foot”?

Eric A Longenhagen: Isn’t he hitting well at Triple-A? He ranked #1 for me in the system and somewhere in the middle of the 100. Am I missing something?

Jerry Sizzler: Hi Eric. Thoughts on Sandy Alcantara? Haven’t had a chance to eyeball him but I catch reports he has touched 102. Good prospect or one-trick pony?

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like him. Ranked him third in the system. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-st-louis-cardinals/

Roger: How high could Hiura rise? He strikes me as most underrated 1st round college hitter. I understand the arm/position questions, and maybe I’m not discounting him enough, but I can also see people looking back in a few years and asking why he didn’t go higher.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you. I really believe in the bat and think he has the actions and feet to play 2B. He might spend the first year of his career DHing but I do have him projected at 2B long term and he’s got more bat than Scott Kingery did, and I thought Kingery merited late first round consideration.

Randy: I was a little disappointed to read most of the reading on Kolby Allard have been 90-92 this year. What makes him project so highly in rankings when that’s where he sits and obviously doesn’t have projectable size?

Eric A Longenhagen: Command, plus curve, potential plus change.

Bionic Danny Hultzen: Anything about Kyle Lewis? Still a few more weeks away?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not yet, I’m tapping my foot and checking my watch too. Pretty sure I’m seeing their Extended group tomorrow? Have to check the schedule. I’ll keep an eye out for him. Ask me next week and I’ll try to have some sort of update as to where he’s at.

John: Any chance Royce Lewis sticks at shortstop?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but I think it’s small and even if he stays there it’s more of a 45 or 50 glove. I prefer him in CF where I think he could be an elite defender.

John: Do you know anything about Adrian Morejon’s extended absence?

Eric A Longenhagen: He threw a bullpen on Friday so whatever has been ailing him might be remedied. They’ve been very careful with him and they don’t really have any reason to push him if he feels sore at all because his innings are going to be very limited this year anyway.

Mets Fan, feeling great: Amed Rosario. Is it even worth it for the Mets to bring him up or is this season turning into a disaster of such epic proportions that they shouldn’t risk harming his development for a team that’s going no where?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hm, I hadn’t thought about that but yeah, I can see an argunment where you just keep him away from the dumpster fire in New York.

Bionic Danny Hultzen: Is Robert supposed to be great? I don’t understand really why there isn’t a bidding war among all teams who aren’t in the luxury tax penalty box. Why is that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Because those teams have commitments to the upcoming J2 period they don’t want to break, and they’d have to if they signed Robert.

Juan: Who are players who have made the jump from outside the top 100 prospects to inside of it this season? Flaherty, Urias?

Eric A Longenhagen: Flaherty for sure. Urias is making a strong argument.

Edwin: De Leon or Honeywell – will either have an MLB impact this year and if so, who do you think has greate 2017 upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-31-prospects-tampa-bay-rays/

Johnny: Do we need to worry about Anderson Espinoza’ health?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve heard it’s going to be a little while, like mid-June.

BIS alum: You worked there and are from there but the town was quite strange. Where was the best place to eat and drink? And have you been to Milanders?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah Coplay is weird. Depends how mobile you are. Nothing close to the office I’d rec, you need to go into Bethlehem.

Sim: How come you never answer my weaver question?

Sim: Thoughts on Luke Weaver? When do you think he will come up?

Eric A Longenhagen: Because my thoughts on Luke Weaver are well-documented and I think predicting promotions is a waste of time and mental energy.

Marcus: Ceiling for Franchy Cordero? Started in High-A last year, now leading off in Triple-A, still 22.

Eric A Longenhagen: Has premium tools that play down because he has poor baseball instincts. He has a bench outfielder look for me, ceiling is above that though.

Oddball Herrera: This comp came to me last night when I was pondering Almonte’s injury – is Broxton a decent comp for Zimmer? The one obvious difference is the platoon concern

Eric A Longenhagen: Broxton is definitely a baseline for that type of player, right? The power on contact CF who has swing and miss issues and plays good defense.

Hank: There are some Brewers fans who criticize Mikwaukee’s rebuild because of the lack of a true “superstar” prospect. Of course, these prospects are very rare and even then most don’t become superstars, but who in their system would say has the best chance of becoming a top player in the league?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has anyone seen Lewis Brinson play?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Ray could be a star, Erceg has that kind of toolset. So does Monte Harrison.

Andrew: Who in the Nats organization has opened the most eyes in the early going?

Eric A Longenhagen: I had someone (not in Nats org) slap a Tulo comp on Carter Kieboom.

Matt: First off, gotta say your coverage is nothing short of remarkable given it’s just your two eyes and a cell phone. Secondly, I’m interested what your long-term career goals are. Is there a particular position you’d need to be offered to move on from FG?

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, I’m still trying to improve coverage but I generally think things are going well. People with teams ask me your question on the regular and my answer is ‘I don’t know’ because I’m still trying to master my current gig.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are really only a couple of reasons to leave a job like this. 1) try to win a GD ring. 2) The internet is not a fun place on which to make a living (no offense, chat)

Buck: Any reason for the salty mood today?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not salty (save for a question or two), it just reads that way because we’re all conditioned to read things on the internet that way anymore.

Eric A Longenhagen: Though I guess a question or two is more than usual.

Andrew: I remember you talking about Hunter Greene’s infield arm being the only 80 tool grade in this year’s draft. How about any 70-75 tool guys? I ask this question because it helps me gauge who I want my team to draft like having known Bobby Dalbec having 70 grade power in last year’s draft.

Eric A Longenhagen: Lotta 70 runners. Lewis, Merrell (the shortstop at USF), Kendall. You could put a 7 on Austin Beck and Jo Adell’s bat speed and I would’t argue with you.

Kretin: Any Angels prospects standing out to you at the moment?

Eric A Longenhagen: Marsh looks great down here, also glad to see Jordan Zimmerman hitting in affiliated ball. He’s a nice little sleeper for Angels fans to follow, he can really hit.

Charlie: Fowler and Wade have both looked great for SWB so far this year. Which one has impressed you more so far, and how could either of them find a path to playing time?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a huge Fowler fan, put him on the top 100. Wade’s path to playing time is more clear because he’s probably a utility guy, but Fowler has more upside.

Badger: What percentage of all baseball you watch is MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the time of year. Right now it’s 0-5%. Post-draft it will spike. And actually I should probably get to a big league game soon just to refresh the eyes.

Jacob: Do you think Jo Adell could go in top 10?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do.

Sandy Alderson: Asking for a friend, who do you think will be the best player available at #20?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Hiura.

brad: Thoughts on Peter Alonso and his struggles in A ball at 22 years old?

Eric A Longenhagen: R/R college first baseman not named Eric Karros are tough profiles.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are teams that really like him, though.

JT: Are you still optimistic about Winker?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but realistic about what he is, which is a bat-only guy.

Oddball Herrera: Seen any of Jae-Gyun Hwang? Struggling offense in SF seems like they could use him

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen him but have spoken with scouts and they think he’s a bench guy and noted it was telling the big club hasn’t given him the call yet.

Andy: Anything on Jordan Humphreys?

Eric A Longenhagen: 88-92 , abv avg change, fringe to average curveball but he locates it. Nice prospect.

Seven Costanza: Vladimir Gutierrez is striking out all the guys and walking none of the guys. Any thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote about him for today. Throwing hard, curveball is great and yes, throwing strikes. Scouts want to see the repertoire start to expand, but he’s off to a great start.

Kyle: Have you heard any updates on Brady Aiken?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not very recently but within the last couple of weeks. Pitching with a 40 fastball.

Joe: I’m a frequent visitor to the MLB Draft each year at MLB Network Studios. What would be some advice you could give that might improve overall interest in the event?

Eric A Longenhagen: Adding me to coverage.

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I think the way the college game is becoming more visible will be helpful.

Eric A Longenhagen: But because so much of the draft is comprised of high schoolers and JC players it’s much harder to market prospects the way the NFL and NBA can.

Bob: Thoughts on Carlos Tocci?

Eric A Longenhagen: Love his feel for CF and bat to ball skills, he hasn’t added much strength.

Seven Costanza: Does baseball have the equivalent of a Wonderlic Test for potential draftees?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think the Scouting Bureau administers a uniform test to all prospects but some clubs have mental skills tests they ask prospects to take.

Jimmy: Can you rank the following OFers: Jesus Sanchez, Cristian Pache, and Esteban Florial? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: In the order you have them but it’s close, especially between the last two.

Erik: Would the draft be better and/or more fun with a lottery and pick trading, like the NBA? Or will the MLB draft never be all that fun since the players are all years away from contributing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes to both.

Jeff in T.O.: Whereabouts would Luis Robert be on your 100 list?

Eric A Longenhagen: In the 55 FV tier

VampWeekAtBern: Angelo Gumbs was a 2nd round pick in 2010. He just reached AA for the first time. Non-prospect, or might there be something there? It seems like Cistulli is a fan.

Eric A Longenhagen: He has always had good bat speed but a messy, noisy swing. Sounds like his body has matured a bit and he’s controlling the bat a little bit better. Might be some late blooming going on there.

Ford: Anyone who has received better than anticipated reports in the A’s system?

Eric A Longenhagen: If I see Marcos Brito taking BP on the side during extended game I go watch.

VampWeekAtBern: Got a favorite pitching prospect with sub-90s velocity?

Eric A Longenhagen: Favorite? The Padres have a little 18-year old named Omar Fernandez who sits 84-86 with a good changeup and curveball. Not a great prospect but I enjoy watching him pitch.

Ford: If the A’s don’t go college pitcher at #6, which demographic would you expect them to pick from?

Eric A Longenhagen: prep bat

dan: I imagine you can’t cover every prospect by yourself, so how much of your evaluations would you say are based on your own eyes vs. what other scouts see/their opinions?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on what’s being covered. Pro stuff is an amalgamation, draft stuff is weighted more toward me because teams spout a lot of misinformation to try to get guys they like, J2 is all sourcing.

Rob: What’s your favorite Paul Giamatti film? asking for a friend

Eric A Longenhagen: Bat Fat Liar

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m kidding. American Splendor.

Mark: Thanks for the weekly chat. Any early reports on K Funkhouser’s stuff? Stat line looks impressive K’s wise.

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re on it. Changeup is missing bats, breaking ball is too, sounds like he’s throwing harder.

mike sixel: Odds MN goes for an under slot guy, since they also have picks 35 and 37, IIRC?

Eric A Longenhagen: Small. Bonus amounts up top are more uniform and clubs’ ability to save pool money is limited as a result. I think the only clubs for which an under slot deal might make sense are Oakland And Cincinnati. The Reds because they pick for the second time before everyone else at the top of the draft except for Tampa but they have the $1mil difference in slot value vs Tampa up top. Oakland because, after what I think is a clear top 5 in the class, they might have several similarly graded players with whom to leverage negotiations.

Eric A Longenhagen: And then they pick at 33 again, right after CIN.

Eric A Longenhagen: But in general I think we see less of the under slot stuff with the new rules.

Ryan: Can you expand a little more on Brandon Marsh?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks comfortable in CF, has big raw power, is taking good at-bats.

Captain Hindsight: I was not too into the draft around the time Trout was drafted. Why did he “fall” so far in the first round? Was it because his ceiling wasn’t projected correctly or that teams didn’t think he could hit his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: A combination of factors. West weather in NJ kept decision makers atop the draft from seeing a lot of him, some poor evaluation, some penny pinching ownership stuff.

23: Thoughts on Peter Lambert? 19 in A+, hasn’t dominated any level but still holding his own.

Eric A Longenhagen: Love Lambert. Modest velo but throws his breaking stuff for strikes, has a good changeup and I’ve actually seen him run that change back over the outside corner against righties, which I had not seen a high schooler do before that.

Me: Really appreciate the extended chat! If you had to pick between two of Carson’s darlings, would you rather have Max Schrock or Luis Urias?

Eric A Longenhagen: Urias.

Sam: What are your thoughts on Wuilmer Becerra? I’ve seen anything from meh 4th OF to potential first division starter in RF

Eric A Longenhagen: Great bat to ball skills, might not have power for the corners (and we’re still pretty early, post-surgery, to make judgments about his arm) but some scouts think the body still has some projection even though he’s listed at like 230 or something like that.

Marcus Banks: What is your favorite fruit to eat cooked? raw?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is #HotFruit allowed in this chat? Peach Cobbler is a 60 dessert but that’s more about the crust and crumble than the peaches. Grilled watermelon with mint and basil has the fruit at the center and is pretty great when it’s 117 here.

JC: Is Randy Ventura worth monitoring?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Lazarito: I’m still in Arizona, seen anything from me?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hitting a little bit better but basically the same as what I’ve written recently.

Josh: How bout that Lansing Lugnuts roster?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s unreal. Bo Bichette is raking, Vlad is one of the best prospects in baseball and I really like Palacios. Woodman is a prospect…a very fun roster.

Marcus Banks: approximately how many questions do you receive during these chats?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think there’s a way to count but several hunderds.

Rob: Bernardo Flores ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: League avg starter, which is great for where they got him.

Andy: Any good stories of going to scout a particular prospect, but then having a more unheralded guy pop up as being the main attraction?

Eric A Longenhagen: Almost daily. Last week’s most fun discovery was Camilo Dovall.

Hannah Hochevar: Thanks for the long chat. Curious if anyone in the Orioles system has generated newfound excitement.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ryan Mountcastle has generated a lot of discussion, Austin Hays and Jomar Reyes are hitting, Cody Sedlock is throwing an acceptable (but sitll not great) level of strikes. Um….

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh duh, Cedric Mullins is a lot of fun but still more of a bench OF for most scouts.

Eric A Longenhagen: Alex Wells is throwing well, not walking anyone, could command his way into a 5th starter role.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not a great system but some good news early this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: And with that I am spent. Working on draft stuff, a top 50 sortable board should be up early next week, and I am fairly stoked on it. Be well everyone, see you next Tuesday.