Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 6/27/2016

Eric A Longenhagen: Please enjoy your new Perkis System uniforms. Your families will be billed automatically.

JD: Possibility of Giolito on Tuesday for the Nats…..?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was still listed as the probably for Harrisburg tonight when I checked last night. Selfishly hoping he stays there because if he does I’m seeing him Saturday.

The Cincinnati Kid: Can A.J. Reed go .350/.500./.850 when he gets going as a Pro? Not necessarily this year, but when he’s settled in as a MLB regular

Eric A Longenhagen: Absolutely he can and I also have a lemon grove for sale if you’re interested.

LudeBurger: J2! J2! J2!

Eric A Longenhagen: Primer tomorrow, sortable board Wednesday, scouting reports Thursday and Friday. If the weather here holds up this week I’m seeing the Cuban National team on Wednesday and that would be a nice cherry on top of the sundae.

E: Aaron Judge seems to have finally made some adjustments to AAA. Have you heard anything new on him? Shorted swing? better approach at the plate? Just a lucky mirage?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the rough start to this season was anomalous, not what we’re seeing now. Reports weren’t about anything mechanical or physical, just vague about him lacking timing and looking “off”. I think he’ll be fine.

JD: How do you rate Cubs hitters at AAA and AA? Vogelbach, Candelario, Happ? How valuable are they as trade chips?

Eric A Longenhagen: I go Happ, Candy and then Vogelbach. I think Happ is a first-division player, Candy probably a below average regular just because he has no position.

Erik: Am I right to be worried that Nick Williams’ high strikeout rate and somewhat low walk rate will prevent him from being more than an average starter in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re right to be worried about it and it’s one I share, but his bat speed and bat-to-ball skills are pretty freaky and there’s a chance that he provides some kind of value even if he swings at everything.

Jim: Michael Gettys has been promoted to A+ and seems to have made progress this year with the bat. What’s your take?

Eric A Longenhagen: The fact that he’s adjusting to higher-quality pitching is encouraging because he’s going to have to do it several more times to hit at the Major League level. He has star-level tools.

Al: Eric do you know when the futures game rosters will be released and have you heard any names yet. Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re already circulating throughout the industry but I haven’t seen them yet and don’t know when they’ll be available for you guys. Sorry.

Jim: Josh Ockimey is showing good power and patience. Do you believe?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do.

Erik: What prospect profile do you find fans over/underrating the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think people underrate the “3rd starter”

Eric A Longenhagen: I was taken aback by the way people responded to me calling Julio Urias a #2/3 starter in his callup piece. That’s a 65 on the scale and a player who generates 4 WAR annually, something only 12 pitchers have done over the last three full seasons.

Kang: Do you have any predictions on fast movers from the 2016 mlb draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Both the White Sox first rounders could move fast. Want a random later round guy I think will move fast? Devin Smeltzer.

Mike: Eric, what kind of a madman starts a fangraphs chat after 1PM est?

Eric A Longenhagen: The one who lives in Tempe and has issues with insomnia.

bpqa: How important is it to see a prospect in person as opposed to seeing video? Is it easier to scout a hitter or a pitcher from video?

Eric A Longenhagen: Video should be a supplement, it’s foolish to ignore, but in-person scouting uber alles for more reasons than I have time to talk about here.

Ken Weidner: E,

Would it be a mistake to keep Corey Seager over Kris Bryant in a standard keeper league?

PS- Will the hawk ever die?

PPS- Do you miss my fanny pack?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s tough. I’ve said this before, but I think Kris Bryant will essentially hit like peak Pat Burrell’s every year for 12 years. I’m increasingly optimistic about Bryant’s long term ability to stay at third.

Eric A Longenhagen: And no I don’t miss the fanny pack but I miss the cell phone belt clip, Dr. Weidner.

Sailor Jerry: Any thoughts on John Gant? I know Farnsworth was very high on him pre-season

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he was almost DFA’d this spring.

Jack: Have you scouted Shohei Otani? If not, what is the scouting report other than his 99-101 MPH heat? Are you excited about him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have. The Fighters came to AZ for Spring training and Otani was up to 99. He’s really impressive and I think he’s among the best pitching prospects on the planet.

Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote a report for ESPN on his appearance. Not sure if it’s Insider or not but you could go searching for that if you want some depth.

Mike: A big debate amongst dodger fans is whether to trade away guys like De Leon, Bellinger, Verdugo, Cotton, Sborz for players like Andrew Miller, Teheran, Gray. Think it’s worth it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Other than maybe Verdgo, I wouldn’t hesitate to deal any of those guys if I thought it would help us have a parade. And I’m as high on Cotton as any.

Michael: Do scouts think Glasnow’s control issues can be helped with the tutelage of Searage at MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they can but I’m lower on Glasnow than others and don’t think Ray Searage is Jesus Christ, Pitching Coach. His stuff is hellacious and pitchers with that body type often develop command late, but there’s a non-zero chance Glasnow never throws enough strikes to dominate.

Adam: What are your thoughts on AJ Preller’s draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: It was super Prellery.

Adam: How big is the talent gap between Maitan and Almanzar?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s pretty big. This year’s J2 class in general is down from last year’s.

Eric A Longenhagen: And I should note that the Cubans who have yet to be cleared to sign but are likely to be during this J2 period will be on the board/ranking and in the reports.

Sailor Jerry: Yadier Alvarez’s AZL debut was seemingly stellar, think he has ace potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: I asked the White Sox AZL kids who faced him in the opener about him and all most of them could do was shake their heads. He plays catch at 94-98 and touches 100. He’s a long way off but yes, he has top of the rotation potential and if you’ve been reading my stuff for a while you know I don’t throw that around too loosely.

Adam: Do you have a quick scouting report on Cionel Perez?

Eric A Longenhagen: 89-93, touch 95, will show you an above average slider and curveball. At least third of the league is interested.

Dave: How good is Lazarito going to be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams are still trying to figure that out. He’s as risky a bat as is available (and it sounds like he’s still available) in this year’s J2 class. Needs a mechanical overhaul and probably ends up in left field despite the pure speed for CF. Feel for center just isn’t there, which means he’ll have to hit.

mike sixel: Buxton still having issues……I know prospects can struggle and still turn out to be great, but there are degrees of struggle. What are your thoughts on Lord Byron these days?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Buxton is so physically gifted that he’s never before had to make any significant adjustments. It’s unfortunate that he’s going to have to do it on such a well-lit stage. I still think he’s going to be one hell of a big leaguer, but it’s going to take some time.

Rog: If you were building a team around a young SS right now which would it be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lindor.

Q-Ball: Do you foresee clubs opening a Cuban baseball academy, similar to the ones in the DR? If the politics and whatnot can be worked out, is there enough mass of talent to warrant it?

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it. Cuba treasures their brand of baseball and the government is very involved in the game there. They have every incentive to keep MLB hands of their guys for as long as possible. I actually think it will be a while before we have any real influx of talent from Cuba into MLB again. What you’ve seen and are seeing now is just about it.

FireDrayton: Bregman headed to AAA. Can he contribute in Houston by August?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. And long enough has passed that I started asking people about the uptick in power and nobody has any idea where the hell it’s coming from but it’s not a mirage.

Pat FL: Mauricio Dubon — how bright is the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta be honest, didn’t love what I saw last week.

Eric A Longenhagen: If the weather holds up I’m seeing him again tomorrow and will have a report up on the site hopefully this week.

Bunk Moreland: Do you expect to see much movement before the July 2nd period opens, or is everything pretty much locked in at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s a pretty large segment of players who will get done right away next week. There are a lot of players who were either not yet cleared or were hoping from big money at the tail end of the last J2 period (which ended on the 15th) or just thought they’d make more money in general that won’t sign next week.

Eric A Longenhagen: Those players will regroup with their agents/trainers and will join a late-signing, secondary market. This type of market is expected to be more robust than usual.

Eric A Longenhagen: Just got to the part of the chat questions where everyone posted a Heavyweights reference. Good job, everyone.

Squeamish: Who will be the better Mariners outfielder, Alex Jackson or Tyler O’Neill?

Eric A Longenhagen: O’Neill. I’m out on Jackson until he proves I shouldn’t be.

Dago: Anyone bearing a comparison to Victor Robles in the J2 pool?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, though Jeison Rosario is sort of a light-beer version of that.

Emma Ratajkowski Fan: Hey Eric, how did you get into the prospect game? How can one get on the inside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Go buy a notebook, stopwatch, an ugly polo shirt from Kohl’s and go to a baseball game.

Allen Greenspan: Thoughts on Lucas Erceg? He seems like he may have been underrated going into the draft

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re right, those are first round tools. But some teams had him off the board because of makeup.

Greg: What do you think of the Bulls first round pick Denzel Valentine? You think his skills will translate to the pros? #firepaxgar

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in Philly and will only answer questions about Billy Ray Valentine.

Kion: Can you rank these three interesting arms? Mitch Keller, Yohander Mendez, Joe Musgrove?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mendez (gap), Keller, Musgrove.

OddBall Herrera: What are your thoughts on some of these teams that seem to be incapable of consistently developing hitters (Seattle, Minnesota)? Does it shape your prognosis in any way of their top prospects (thinking guys like Buxton, Sano, O’Neill)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. I try to make a conscious effort NOT to be swayed by stuff like that. I have written things in the past like, “Prospect X plays for the Giants and those guys have developed players beyond my expectations before” but never the reverse side with clubs like you’re describing.

Jojo the Monkey: How does Maitan compare to Sano as a draft prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sano > Maitan but the process was much different when Sano signed than it is now and I think the way that has changed how/when teams see prospects is significant enough to say we’re comparing apples and oranges there.

Jojo the Monkey: Thoughts on Abraham Gutierrez, a catcher that seems to have created some divide of opinion in this year’s J2 class?

Eric A Longenhagen: Poor athlete but has good catching skills and some power. He’s in the 20-25 range on my board.

Wally: Do you think Andrew Stevenson can be a starting CF at the MLB level? Will he hit enough?

Eric A Longenhagen: Love Stevenson but don’t think he’ll ever be more than passable in short stints in CF. More LF for me (55 runner). That swing is not going to produce any kind of game power but he might provide enough defensive value as a plus glove in LF to be an everyday player anyway.

Kev Maitan: I’ve read that Kev Maitan, if compared to MLB draft class, is still under Mickey Moniak. How can that be?? Mini-Miggy comps don’t carry as far as it used to I guess??

Eric A Longenhagen: Maitan is 16 and barely entering the years of his life that will significantly impact the way he develops physically and mentally. There’s just more risk there. Even if you think Maitan has more impressive physical tools than Moniak (I do) it’s impossible not to factor risk into assessment and value.

AJ: Too early to give up on Addison Russell. Limited power, no sb’s and striking out the same as last yr

Eric A Longenhagen: Too early. If someone in your keeper league is selling, I’m buying.

The Ghost of Luis Medina: Brady Aiken pitched his first two professional games over the past week. He was limited to two innings each time. Any updates on how he looks?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was 88-92 for me last Monday with a 55 breaking ball. Had better command of the curve than the fastball. Change was like 81-83 and a 40. There’s video from that start on the FG YouTube page.

FireDrayton: Lotta debate in Houston about where Bregman ends up in relation to Correa. I’m on team “move Correa to 3B, play Bregman at SS”. You?

Eric A Longenhagen: Same.

Eric TX: Is Rowdy Tellez doing enough to be considered the Blue Jays 1st baseman of future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not for me. Has to have impeccable timing for him to make that swing work in a way that befits an everyday 1B and I don’t think he has it.

Juice: Someone asked about Cionel, but what’s the skinny on Adrian Morejon?

Eric A Longenhagen: 89-94, breaking ball projects to plus, changeup does too if you’re liberal with it (I am). He’s #2 on the J2 board behind Maitan.

Josh: Who are some guys you currently believe have a chance to go 1-1 in next year’s draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t hold me to this because it’s really early but a name that hasn’t popped up that I think will is Calvin Mitchell.

XYZ: Thoughts on David Garcia? Is he the top J2 catcher and will he stick?

Eric A Longenhagen: Top backstop for me, and yes.

JD: Does Ian Happ have enough power to hold down a corner outfield slot? Or does the high OBP and speed make that not matter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s enough pop.

Kion: Thoughts on JP Crawford? How does he compare to Addison Russell?

Eric A Longenhagen: Incredible athlete, among the best body control I’ve ever seen. They’ve been toying with his footwork in the batter’s box for the last year and a half so it’s been hard to nail down a projection on the bat because he’s looked good/bad depending on how comfortable he is with the change.

Eric A Longenhagen: 6 Defender at SS, easy.

Clad Gabrial: Have you looked at Yulieski Gourriel and what do you think he could do in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never seen Yuli in person but scouts I’ve talked to who have wax poetic about his glory days and lament that they’re gone.

DutchDaulton4Prez: Josh Bell is killing the ball. ETA Pitt?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too many external factors impacting a potential callup (injuries, trades, etc.) so it’s hard to do ETAs, but the numbers aren’t lying, he’s on fire and getting the barrel to everything.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, everyone I’m off to Wilmington for tonight’s Blue Rocks/Hillcats games. Thanks for chatting, see you back here next week when I’ll be back in sweaty AZ.