Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 8/29/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning everyone, let’s dive into your questions immediately.

Ben: Hey Eric, love these chats! We have two exciting SP debuts tonight. If you only could watch Tong or Tolle tonight, which would you choose and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you have to pick one (both *matchups* tonight are also incredible, Tolle vs Skenes, Tong vs Eury) I’d go Tolle just because we’ll get to learn more about him tonight than I think we will Tong. Tolle’s power fastball will play, how about the other stuff? How does he approach big league hitters the second and third time through? Tong’s question marks are more going to be answered over longer period because it has to do with him sustaining big stuff at his size.

Drew: Is Eduardo Quintero really a top 50 prospect like I’ve seen in other publications?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s rich for me, clearly, or I’d have him in that area.

Rob: What have your impressions of Cam Cam been this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Great first full season, pitching well deep into the calendar.

Chan: Thoughts on Robbie Snelling’s season? Future rotation mainstay?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but he’s more of a backend guy for me

Drew: Can you call Walcott’s 2025 disappointing considering he is 19 in AA? What do you need to see for him in 2026 to keep him in the top 10?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it was fine — if he can stay at shortstop while he keeps getting stronger he’s going to be a monster

Opifijikl: Has Jedixon Paez redeemed himself in your eyes? Who are some other interesting Red Sox pitching prospects besides Tolle, Early, and Clarke that I should get hyped about?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m glad he’s pitching well and hope he’s a Fall Leaguer. He’s a postseason 40-man candidate who needs innings and evaluation time. I think it’s a great system for pitching

Eric A Longenhagen: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: everyone from the Holobetz group up is exciting to me

Alek: Yohandy morales’s surface line stats have looked a little better the last 2 months, do you see anything in him that could make him a decent MLB bat for Wsh?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m just terrified of the guys who can’t pull the ball at all and he’s one of those

Oaktown Blues: Did you get a chance to watch Luis Morales carve up the Mariners or Tigers? Does he look more likely to stick as a SP now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol yeah

Eric A Longenhagen: good, I hope he shoves, the org is definitely turning the ship around imo

Chuck: Not sure what to do with Kristian Campbell in my dynasty league, has he made any strides defensively in AAA?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hold him

Eric A Longenhagen: (he’s going to be a LF eventually I would assume)

Bk: whats your thoughts on Gage Stanifer?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a tough one because the delivery is so choppy and odd-looking, but he’s siting about 93-94 with deception and vertical ride, and his slider plays beautifully off that fastball.

Eric A Longenhagen: He also has a split. It’s a starter’s mix in a reliever’s mechanical package, imo.

EG: Any concern with Arjun Nimmala? He’s been brutal for awhile now

Eric A Longenhagen: Concern there is basically the same as it ever was, he’s not a perfect prospect, he has hit tool risk, but I’m sill optimistic about him overall because of the rare power and physicality he projects to have.

Kevin Kobel: Can Jacob Reimer stick at third base or is he more likely to slide over to first?

Eric A Longenhagen: Below average 3B who plays there some of the time

Brian: How long do you think it’ll take Preller to rebuild the Padres farm? In your opinion, is there anyone in baseball that has a better eye for young talent than him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there are lots of talented people scouting players across the Padres ops department, it’s not just A.J.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think they’ll ever rebuild it

Eric A Longenhagen: I think, at best, it’ll be top-heavy with more good players who they’ve picked

Eric A Longenhagen: but it’s tough to predict that they’ll suddenly have a deep system when they tend to either promote players quickly with the goal of graduating them onto the big league roster, or trade them

JK: Jhonny Level has scuffled a bit at low A, but what else would you want to see from him this year or next to become a 50 FV or better prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s too small to stuff right away

Eric A Longenhagen: Needs to prove the skills play against better pitching

Eric A Longenhagen: Good prospect, think it’s too beacoup to 50 him now

Oaktown Blues: Is Wei En Lin as good as his stats look?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not quite but he’s good.

Eric A Longenhagen: Lansing’s broadcast radar gun is like 3 ticks too hot btw

Eric A Longenhagen: Synergy (which uses the broadcast velos) has him sitting nearly 94, while Trackman has him sitting 91.5

Eric A Longenhagen: fastball has tough line on it, changeup has real fade and sink, parachute action at like 76 mph.

Eric A Longenhagen: might be too slow to play like a plus plus pitch against big league hitters

Eric A Longenhagen: below average slider, average curveball

Eric A Longenhagen: 45 FV type with some round down components (mostly the velo, doesn’t throw strikes with anything but his fastball) so he’s a 40+ on the board right now

Urza: Is Victor Arias a potential starter down the line?  Or more of a 4th/5th OFer?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know scouts who have him in as a starter, I think it’s more of a power-hitting part timer’s skillset.

Oaktown Blues: When bat speed data was released last year, was there any player whose metrics surprised you or didnt match the eye test?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’m surprised just how low the contact freaks are, like Jacob and Kwan being that low is weird to me

Eric A Longenhagen: here’s the chart btw:

Eric A Longenhagen: Statcast Bat Tracking | baseballsavant.com

Eric A Longenhagen: Perdomo (aka Desert Jeter) being that low is also odd, maybe that’s weighing his righty swing too

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe some of these guys are like a half grade off where I thought they’d be, like Jordan Beck

Guest: Is Trey Yesavage close to being mlb ready?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he should probably be in their playoff bullpen

Jazzrunner: Nelson Rada has hit for high average at AAA at a young age.  I don’t hear much about him.  What are your thoughts? Does he stick next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: One of those guys where the age and physical projection don’t quite match. He’s precociously skilled but probably won’t add a ton of power even though he’s so young. Good player, tough to project him as a star.

G4: Those SS defense videos you curated for recent article were much appreciated. Great work as always!

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, next will be Franklin Arias, George Lombard, Edwin Arroyo, and a fourth and maybe fifth player. Ya know what, let’s make that subject to polling…

Eric A Longenhagen:

Old Guy: Josue De Paula‘s numbers look kind of meh.  Why are the sites so high on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: above average raw power right now at age 19, Ideal body for long-term power projection and athletic longevity, 70 plate discipline

Will: Any early read on how you’ll stack the prep group in the ‘26 class. I’ve seen fairly concerning things from all of the top guys like Lombard and Kevin Roberts not hitting at USA, Spangler not pulling the ball at all at USA or AC, so I guess that would leave Emerson as my No.1

Eric A Longenhagen: Lombard

Eric A Longenhagen: Emerson is a nice player, a real shortstop with feel to hit

Eric A Longenhagen: don’t love his physical projection enough to stuff him at the very top

Lord Thunder: Can Josue Briceno match Rainiel Rodriguez‘s offensive firepower?

Eric A Longenhagen: I hope some readers were early to him in dynasty ball because of this summer’s report

Eric A Longenhagen: Rainiel I mean, Briceno I stuffed during the offseaso, claro

Pete Falcone: How did the NYM get such a spike in fastball velocity across the minors this year? Is it something new they came up with, or are they just doing what everyone does but better?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stearns Juice

small e: Do the Red Sox draft & development infrastructure from Bloom & Breslow have a particular skill for finding breakout candidates or have they just gotten a string of good fortune with Anthony, Campbell, Garcia, and Tolle in quick succession?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think as far as pitching is concerned they have a great feel for what they’re going to change before they acquire the player

Insert Witty Name Here: Ready or not, Painter has to be up soon right? Can’t be worse than Nola and with Wheeler out, what else can they do?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s possible, yes

Chuck: Hey Eric also got one personal question for you, what’s your favorite book about baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Amazon.com: Pitchingu no shōtai: 9784583035079: Kazushi Tezuka: Books

Eric A Longenhagen: and Ted Williams’ Science of Hitting

Eric A Longenhagen: Both have incredible before-their-time visuals of things we’d still consider advanced today

David Morgan: How good of an outcome is this for a NDFA?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is it the best of the post covid era draft system?

Urza: How much of Genao’s lack of power this year so far can be attributed to his injury earlier in the year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of it is swing plane stuff too

John Pacella: If Edwin Diaz leaves the Mets for free agency after the season, is there someone in their system you could see becoming their next closer in the near term?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah

Nick: It looks like Justin Crawford lowered his hands some time in early-August. He now has 4 homers this month (which is over half his season total). Could there be something meaningful happening?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lets’ take a quick look, shall we?

Eric A Longenhagen: my Synergy is acting up, I’m gonna backburner this for now and return to it

AZ Dreaming: Has Ryan Waldschmidt‘s recent tear at AA giving you reason to think about upgrading his 45 FV?  Has his swing improved?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still concerned about its sustainability and am inclined to leave him there (still a good grade)

FJF: The A’s have done a poor job maintaining their prospect class strength whenever they’re competitive. Since this ‘26 Draft pick in their hopes is their last chance at an elite prospect, do you think they’ll do a better job now at churning T100 guys?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s far too much gaf across the internet about the top 100 line, like if a guy isn’t on there we’re saying he’s bad

Michael: What do you see Hunter Barco becoming?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhere in that good no 4/5 area

Nils: I know we often will see SS prospects move to 2B either due to defensive limitations or being blocked by someone, but why dont teams move players to 2B earlier on?  This year, we have 14 SSs in the majors with 3+ fWAR but only 4 2B.  Why is 2B such an afterthought?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s a particularly weak group *at the moment*

Drew: Is Matt Walner a good comp for Spencer Jones?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re in the ballpark, yeah. Better athlete and defender is Jones

Aeroguy32: Thoughts on Ethan Dorchies, seems like a steal in the 10th round.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, they do a great job don’t they? Fastball slider guy sitting 92, slider is average right now chance to be above. Non-zero chance to start, nice prospect for what he cost where they go him

Kate: What’s your level of concern with Morlando at this point?  How much of it is injury vs. performance?

Eric A Longenhagen: A source mentioned him as a possible Fall Leaguer, which I think would be a good place to sit and actually evaluate him for a prolonged period. The vibe in Jupiter was pretty sour when I was in there, the team knows its talented but was really struggling

Kate: How much of Caden Dana’s issues can be chalked up to PCL?  Is he still a 50 for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: The walks bother me

Kate: Has your outlook on Aron Estrada changed at all since you had him as an honorable mention on the O’s list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he should probably be a main list guy

Eric A Longenhagen: well rounded hitter, seems like he’ll have some fringe 40 utility at least

Kate: Does David Davalillo have a chance to sneak onto the Top 100?  Or is the fastball too meh?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has a shot but you’ve identified the key variable

Dave: Bryce Teosodio seemed to come out of nowhere and appears to be an excellent defender. Does he hit enough to be considered the Angels CF for next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah super fast guy, has more of an extra OF fit to me, late game defensive replacement and runner

Jobert: Chances Jarlin Susana can win a spot in the 2026 Nats opening day rotation?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s plausible but I’d guess he’s a mid-season debut

Pirates Hurdles: Im curious about Wilbur Dotel, is there a SP path there or more MIRP?

Eric A Longenhagen: RP for me, good one, though. They should let him start for as long as possible, though

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d imagine he debuts as a starter and shifts to the bullpen in year two or three on the 40-man

Keith: Was Jasson Dominguez a bad fielder in the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah

Pinstriped Problems: Spencer Jones: people jumped on his hot streak but maybe it was just a streak? Lately he was brutal

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m so offline anymore that the only portal I have into prospect discourse is this chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: But from my POV, the internet is way too reactionary and impatient

Eric A Longenhagen: about liteally anything

Dan: Thanks for these chats, Eric! Always love the insights. Not exactly prospect related, but wondering if you’ve had a chance to see what Brett Baty has been doing lately. 109 wRC+ and more interestingly to me, he appears to be a quality 3B defender and shockingly solid at 2B. Any difference you’ve seen with his defense (or offense for that matter as well)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Another guy whose bat speed surprised me when I sw it

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a piece, the way they’re using him and Vientos in tandem seems to be working and part of why Baty is doing well is probably because he can have a platoon mate

Guest: Did the Padres move De Vries because:

1. Suarez opts out, Miller becomes the new closer
2. They keep Suarez and stretch Miller out ala Michael King (I don’t believe this)
3. They internally saw something that convinced them to “sell high”
4. Flags Fly Forever
5. Other

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a greater shot at no. 2 than you do. I think they liked De Vries but I’d be surprised if they truly thought he was a top 5 overall prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: mostly 4 tho

Arkansas Traveler: When there’s a big discrepancy in how hitter-friendly a team’s minor league pipeline is level to level, does that positively or negatively affect a hitter’s development? I would imagine it’s a challenge for hitters to suddenly have to adapt to hitting in the cavernous Dickey-Stephens Park after the smaller Everett stadium, but does that adaptation actually help them deal with adversity for the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there are instances where it negatively impacts dev because I think it’s natural for hitters to see a short porch and change their mental approach in a way that benefits them in the short term.

Eric A Longenhagen: In some cases it isn’t impacting the hitter so much as it’s impacting our ability to coherently assess them. The Mariners guys are consistently in that mix.

Jeremy: I’m sure you evaluate players differently than when you first started out–weighting certain tools or traits more or less heavily than you used to. Is that because you’ve changed (you’ve learned more, etc.), or because the game has changed (pitchers throw harder now, etc.), or both?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely both, some of what I’ve changed is technical (fastball shape is the big piece between ’16 and now) and some of it is more about approach (I’m offline, these evals are more true to myself and less impacted by the zeitgeist)

Izzy: Does Edward Cabrera still have ace upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say “front end” upside, maybe not “ace” in the way I define it, which is that there are only four Aces, give or take

Sir Nerdlington: Will we see more draftees coming from the D2/D3 levels in the coming years with the glut of D1 guys getting shoved down due to roster caps?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s an interesting thought, I wonder if the portal allows pro-quality talent to move fluidly enough from program to program that it’ll just diffuse to smaller DI schools or JUCOs

GA Blood: No question, just wanted to say thank you for the series on SS defense. It’s really great as a fan to have people who can explain the intricacies of the way the game is played, so this kind of content is super fun.

Eric A Longenhagen: Gracias, people seem stoked on it and I’ll do more like it

Pokey Reese: For someone that hasn’t seen Tolle pitch, how would you describe him?

Eric A Longenhagen: “F*ck you, hit my fastball, I dare you”

DL: Did you say you were at the Dbacks game

Eric A Longenhagen: I was last a Reds/Dbacks game last week, pretty sure I saw Hazen at the Brophy/Basha football game last night but I gave him space. Larry Fitzgerald’s kid is good btw.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna be at a Rangers Dbacks game with my neighbor Clark next week

Old Prospector: any thoughts on Dax Whitney, who just had a great freshman year in NCAA?

Eric A Longenhagen: First round prospect

2131, 1312: Favorite player name in the minors right now? excluding the most obvious & widely known (eg Jurrangelo Cintje)

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve gotta make my fantasy football picks right now, give me 2 minutes, then I wanna check on Justin Crawford’s swing, and then I need to break some news before chat ends

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay I’m back, thanks for that indulgence

RoyalRyan: Any new thoughts on Royals young pitching, specifically Shields and Kendry Chourio? Would you have either above 40 FV at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still inclined to 40 Shields right now, Chourio 40+

Eric A Longenhagen: Have I added him, I need to if not

Lord Thunder: Who’s the best bet between Roch Cholowsky and Justin Lebron to stay at SS? How much separation in the FV outlooks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Roch might be a 70 there

Eric A Longenhagen: , overall grade wise probably one is a 45+ and the other a 45 at the moment

Archer: Has Max Anderson been performing long enough to earn a higher grade? Guy seems to just keep raking

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think I’ll budge there unless I see a change in swing/spray

Josh Adamcdzewski: Chances I get to a 50 FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta play a position

Lord Thunder: Who are the leading candidates to be the next 70 FV prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Made

vitaK: It’s pretty early but any thoughts on charles davalan?

Eric A Longenhagen: Someone told me he had the best measurable bat speed among this year’s SEC draftees

Eric A Longenhagen: Smaller guy, nice little hitter, uses the ground well. I like him.

AZ Dreaming: Will Aidan Miller be ready to contribute in Philly next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so

G: Any thoughts on the young giants pitchers in the low minors? They have a few interesting guys like De La Torre, Bresnahan, K Martinez

Eric A Longenhagen: De La Torre and Bresnaham have impact fastballs that should at least play in relief. I like LDLT’s delivery better but his other traits are crude. Keyner is more starter-y, medium frame, average velo with modest projection, good secondaries.

Kevin Alcantara: What have I shown this season to be all the way up to 33 overall on the board? Maybe something looks different for actual scouts getting actual looks, but us statline scouts aren’t seeing much reason for optimism this year. Or is it just moreso “nothing has changed and dudes have graduated”?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter

Guest: Any guess on where Ichiro’s swing speed would have been at his prime?

Eric A Longenhagen: Holy cow, no idea

Eric A Longenhagen: Prime Ichiro I barely watched, it was pre-MLB.tv and I was in late middle school and high school

johnny dANGER: who is still a prospect that didn’t pan out that you were convinced could be something special?

Eric A Longenhagen: Many. Forrest Whitley? There was a window that he looked incredible

Chadwick: Last week w/ Nate George you mentioned he’s all oppo as a concern. This question isn’t about him in particular, but just in general is that a concern about bat speed and catching higher velo or something else? Is Yohandy’s issue with going oppo you mentioned earlier in the chat the same thing?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s about “length to entry”, as in it takes his bat a while to get to a point where he’s able to pull the baseball, and it happens consistently. It’s a trait of players who later struggle to catch MLB velo at all

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not one of those “YOU GOTTA PULL EVERYTING” guys, but I do think if you can’t pull it at all, I’m bothered by it

Bobby Peru: What are you (and scouts you speak with) specifically looking for in terms of makeup? I assume most guys at this level are competitive and train, so what are the other differentiators?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m barely engaging with makeup for a couple reasons…

Eric A Longenhagen: First, I can’t really do it at scale. During the course of a year I write about 1,500 scouting reports and end up touching on hundreds more players who don’t get written up. I’d love to call all of their high school guidance counselors and pastors but I can’t…

Eric A Longenhagen: The other reason is that if I move a player down because of something they did, then I kinda quantifying the thing they did. And sometimes that feels icky. Like, “oh you’re a 40+ and rank 15th on the team’s list but you did a domestic battery so now you’re a 40 and rank 30th. I kinda just said, “DV is worth X” and that’s gross

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, these guys are *so* young, they’re not complete people yet. They deserve some grace and latitude, they have hormones that make them do crazy things surging through their bodies and a lot of them have gotten half-assed educations because they’re so focused on sports

Eric A Longenhagen: Florida Virtual School? Give me a break

Eric A Longenhagen: But yeah, I like competitive guys.

Hyperart Thomasson: Updated impressions on hit tools for Konnor Griffin and Termar Johnson? Will Griffin eventually be included in the top SS defense series?

Eric A Longenhagen: Griffin’s swing looks pretty grooved, his hands are still explosive, still think he’s a 40 hit tool guy with huge power. Yes he’ll be in the SS defense series. I’m spreading out the big names somewhat.

Eric A Longenhagen: Anthony Murphy posted video of his doubel A pitches, lemme post that here

Eric A Longenhagen: Konnor Griffin AA Debut Week

Eric A Longenhagen: no frills, no bs, every pitch he saw

Eric A Longenhagen: Justin crawford swing changes: I’d say his stance is more crouched now but his hands don’t appear to be working any differently. Keep in mind I’m rushing to watch it so I can keep chat moving

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s conceive of some journalism to do before I end chat

Eric A Longenhagen: Are Fall League names starting to trickle out there, can I dump a couple of those?

2131, 1312: Is there any one prospect that independent of hype (whether or not there was major hype) who quickly proved to be a impactful big leaguer that you particularly regret missing on?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kerry Carpenter

Resolution: Any updates on Condon? seems to have adjusted well to AA but also still has some warts

Eric A Longenhagen: Big bat speed, still scared of how much contact there’s going to be.

Herbert T.: Got to see Ichiro in person a few times and it looked like he was placing the ball on the field where he wanted to. Like he went to the plate with a good plan and had a crazy high ability to execute the plan.

Eric A Longenhagen: I watched tennis late last night and really think it’s a great interdisciplinary pursuit for young baseball players for this reason

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t usually care about tennis but I was hanging with Lindsey in New York last year during the Open and it was awesome, and this year I’ve been fairly wrapped up in it just because the late night vibe is so cool to me

Gene Lamont: Staying with the Royals.. with Carter Jensen’s breakout in the minors, would you rather have Jensen or Blake Mitchell as the Royals primary backstop once Salvy hangs it up?

Eric A Longenhagen: I (we) have had Jensen ahead of Mitchell for a couple of years now

Nick: I’m a good friend of Ferrin’s and he told me about Groggy’s in Mesa… I got the lowdown from him, but can I get some 20-80 grades on food, crowd, decor, etc

Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a dive bar in Mesa that we went to on spec a couple weekends ago after we had ramen up near Sloan Park. It was a dank, shadowy Chicago (Cubs, not Sox) bar where I had a Church Music on tap and Mike had an Old Style. It was divey as hell, there were lots of weird people, and I’ll probably be back

Pop: Braedon Karpathios has been an above average bat in every level he has played at. What does he need to do to be ranked in a weak Padres system?

Eric A Longenhagen: super patient hitter, hands work okay, another guy where he’s more geared for oppo contact but here’s enough fastball pull that I’m not alarmed, low ball proclivity struggles some with elevated fastballs. Here’s the news breaking: This guy (and Ethan Salas again) are primed to be Fall Leaguers based on info I have currently. That’s subject to change, but it’s the intel I have now and will count for this weeks’ newbreaking topper.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve run the light pretty badly here and need to go.

Eric A Longenhagen: Great questions this week, thanks to the couple hundred of you who joined

Resolution: Weird dive bars FTW, always

Eric A Longenhagen: (peace sign)