Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 9/5/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from stormy Tempe, we’ll probably have a shorter chat today so I can batten down the hatches before this enormous cell hits the city.

Eric A Longenhagen: This week I wrote about the defense of more shortstops

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s Scout More Top Shortstop Prospects’ Defense: Franklin Arias, George Lombard Jr., JJ Wetherholt, Edwin Arroyo | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Meg and I also wrote a job posting looking for a second full time prospect writer. FanGraphs Is Hiring! Seeking a Full-Time Prospect Writer | FanGraphs Baseball

Jeb: Konnor Griffin, whoof. AA doesn’t seem to be phasing him at all so far. As a pirate fan, can he actually work out and be great? What does his ceiling look like? What can we dream on?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s quite good. I still think it’s a round down hit tool to some degree, but the power/speed combo is great. He’s a top 5 prospect.

Greg: How much are you buying Hurston Waldrep‘s changes? How do you view him now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Anything that can help make his fastball less vulnerable or less the focal point of his mix is a good change. Whether or not he can maintain strikes and health with that delivery remains to be seen. He’ll be a good piece regardless of which is true. One outcome is he’s a good mid-rotation starter, one is he’s a good late-inning reliever. Found money/win for Hurston and PD either way.

Alek: The nats have a surplus of young outfielders with Crews/Wood/Lile/Hassell/Young/Franklin. Do you think they should trade any of them (maybe one of Hassell or Lile) for an arm this offseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think I’d like to have a Crews/Wood everyday setup then platoon Franklin/Lile. I think Young has utility as a defender and runner, he’s a fifth OF on a good team and someone would probably cough up something for him. Hassell IDK what he’d command via trade. It’s a nice concept in theory but I’m not sure any deal gets you a needle-moving arm.

Len: I’m totally just scouting the box score, but JR Ritchie looks to be having a great year and you guys are the lowest on him. What’s holding him back in your eyes from being one of the top prospects in the Braves system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just me, not a “you guys” situation. I wanted him to work a ton of innings to prove he can sustain this kind of suff and he has, and he’s also on the doorstep now. Still don’t love the command (some of that was Futures Game look) but he’s a good prospect, likely an arrow up guy next update

Idiotic Failson: With both Grisham and Bellinger being free agents at year end do you think Spencer Jones makes his way onto the Yankees OD roster?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s plausible, Grisham’s vibes have been so good it’d be tough for me to let him walk. But yeah, if they both do you have an internal option, albeit at a high-risk one.

Day Beaut: Which players drafted this year have had the best debuts so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Only now have drafted arms really gotten going here in camp. Kruz Schoolcraft was 97-99 in his debut, that’s a good start. Sounds like he’ll be sent out.

Darren: If you’re the Blue Jays, why are you waiting to call up Yesavage? Could give such a jolt of energy to the pen, plus some much needed length and bat missing ability.

Eric A Longenhagen: When/if an injury or two happens this month

Tim: I think Paul Skenes won the CY Young last night. If he stays relatively healthy over the next 10-12 years, could he end up being one of the, if not the, best pitcher of all time?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, “tim” I can see your IP address bud, I appreciate all the (many many many) questions but it does make me roll my eyes that you’re trying to put one over on me by changing your name, as if a third of the questions in the queue are naturally Pirate-related

mike milwaukee: Lots has to go right, I know – but with Made, Pena, Wilken, Adams, and all of the 1B in the Brewers system, does anyone switch to the OF with the presence of Turang (and Ortiz?) there already?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s far too early to consider any of that, but I think the rate of conversion from dynamic SS to dynamic CF has been high enough of late to explore CF for one of Made/Pena if those guys were going to kick down the door as hitters. I think both have work to do as INFs and I wouldn’t want to rob them of reps at the moment

Emil Morales: When prospect writers talk about a league being “hitter friendly” (e.g., the California League), is this mostly about park factors? Or is there a compounding bias at play where the environment leads teams to keep better hitters there longer and limit pitching prospects’ time?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we mention it to help readers adjust their assumptions about the players when those assumptions are often driven by performance made less reliable by the hitting environments.

Eric A Longenhagen: lol It doesn’t work usually lol

Chase: Hey Eric, thanks for the chat. I was wondering if you’ve got any updates on T.J. Nichols? On the latest board update, he is listed as a 40 FV MIRP. I don’t have the underlying pitch movement data that you do, but when I look at his stats I see a starters load of innings and a great K-BB%, he did have a really high HR/FB% in A+ though. His frame seems like one that could fill out, 6’5 189 lbs. The clips I’ve seen look to me like a 45/45+, what is keeping him out of this tier for you? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s been a big year for him and we’re on year two of him improving strikes since leaving U of A

Eric A Longenhagen: More average to above stuff than plus

Avery: Who would you pick for 2026 rookie of the year if you had to make a guess now?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think I’d take the guys who’ve been called up the last two weeks and will retain eligibility into next season. Basallo, McLean, Tolle…that type of guy.

Cool Lester Smooth: Is there anything stopping McGonigle and Clark from 65 status, on your next list?

Eric A Longenhagen: KMac Defense and Clark power actualization.

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re both awesome

NPB Scout: Hi Eric, do you have any initial thoughts on Kota Tatsu of the Nippon-Ham Fighters in NPB? He’s been in the news a lot in Japan but wanted to know of his majors prospects

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty projectable 21 year old righty sitting 92, throws a ton of strikes, way better splitter control than is typical, fastball plane is very hittable, higher slot guy generating less than 10% miss with the heater. Definitely a guy worht following but not a monster right now

Aviaries: Adam Serwinowski has been on fire since he got traded to the Dodgers, top-100 candidate for next update or is his command still too raw?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s more about whether he’s found a third pitch than the command piece for me, his fastball will play (could be like Tolle’s, honestly) even if he has meh command

Eric A Longenhagen: but definitely a hondo candidate, yes

emh: Is Ralphy Velazquez legit? Seems like something changed a few months ago.

Eric A Longenhagen: Could be a 50, I’m a little less inclined to project on his power (he’s producing above average peak exits right now) because to me his body is maxed out and even though he’s 20 I’m not sure there’s more in the tank. It’s like 50 hit 55 power just as far as the data is concerned, which is definitely better than the 40 I put on his bat when I did the CLE list but not nutty for a 1B/DH only athlete

Jonathan: What did you think of the Met’s Elian Pena debut in the DSL?

Eric A Longenhagen: Got better as the year played out, great debut

Deep Dish: Any insight into cubs outfield prospect Eli Lovich?

Eric A Longenhagen: Super projectable 6-foot-4, lefty-hitting OF, exciting long term power projection, K’d like a third of the time this year. Deep projection flier/sleeper type with high risk hit tool.

Philly: Jarlin Susana‘s future as a starter taking any hits with the arm issues this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d consider him more of a relief risk than an equally talented guy who has never been injured, but I still think at his size/physicality and with his chalk roster timeline, you give him every opportunity to start

Eric A Longenhagen: If you’d ask anyone about Miz’s RP risk last year they’d have told you it was greater than the chance he’d start

Eric A Longenhagen: Even me, and I had him something like 25th overall entering the year

Eric A Longenhagen: But like, if a guy is gonna be Jhoan Duran or Edwin Diaz, he should probably be that high anyway, right?

Eddie Cheddar: Sam Basallo or Jac Caglianone? Dynasty league…who’s career do you want more?  (Jac’s debut was scary…)

Eric A Longenhagen: Basallo

Eric A Longenhagen: not close

Tully Blanchard: This might be a dumb question, but do teams have vibes / clubhouse presence quantified in their internal models? And if so, what data points do they use?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not to my knowledge

Go Isotopes: If you were a major league hitter during Player’s weekend, what would you choose to do with your bat wrap and cleats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably something shark related. Maybe some years I’d have like the MtG mana colors/symbols I like to play on there, maybe something related to a band I like.

Eric A Longenhagen: What would you guys put on there? Throw your tricked out cleat/bat ideas in chat and I’ll post a bunch

David: Who’s next on the short stop articles?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get people involved in that, too. Arjun Nimmala will be for sure because he finished second in last week’s poll…

Eric A Longenhagen:

blackjack: Do you think Charlie Condon has redeemed himself?  There were many questions about him coming into this year.  He seems to be hitting in Double A.  Is he an elite prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: “redeemed” is intense, I think in the eyes of the folks who were less skeptical than I have been you could justify stuffing him. He does have ridiculous power. I’m still gonna take the under on “elite” though, by a lot.

Eric A Longenhagen: The thing that is toughest to impress upon readers, I’ve found, is how good big leaguers are and how hard it is to hit at that level.

Eric A Longenhagen: And how any little flaw evident in the minors could be a giant hole in the bigs

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Something seems to have clicked for Baltimore’s Luis De Leon prior to promotion (although by broadcast he’s still only sitting 93-95) – is he still a 45 FV for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe a 45+ this offseason, still a big time grade

Phil: I’ve appreciated your write-ups of Franklin Arias. Is he close enough and good enough to affect how the team is thinking about Story? I wouldn’t be shocked if the latter opts in just because he likes it here, but it seems like the next guy might be pretty close?

Eric A Longenhagen: Story has been so good that you ride him. Arias needs to get stronger, I’d let him barbecue some.

Eric A Longenhagen: He might come to camp next spring with a new physique, though.

Sanford: Any new observations from McLean’s MLB sample?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s nasty, love the sink/slider movement split, he’s poised and competitive and seems to meet the moment. studly

E. Sheehan: My buddy and I were discussing Kendall George‘s 70 speed grade in association with his recently breaking the 100 SB milestone (albeit in single-A).

He argued that writers might be wary about giving out 80 grades for fear that handing out too many might undermine the writer’s credibility. I countered that fear of objectivity was a slippery slope wherein 70 essentially becomes the new 80.

Does fear of over-hyping a player or skill set ever factor into your final analysis? And, in the case of George, what factors might separate a 70 grade from an 80?

Eric A Longenhagen: Does fear of over-hyping a player or skill set ever factor into your final analysis? Yes, for a number of reasons.

Eric A Longenhagen: And, in the case of George, what factors might separate a 70 grade from an 80?
It’s all about my stopwatch, basically. If you’re a lefty hitter and I’ve got you in the 4.1 area, you’re a 70 and not an 80

Lark: Dylan Jordan has been getting some buzz this year, and Gregory-Alford seems to be improving too. Is Angels pitching dev finally improving?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so

Eric A Longenhagen: Jordan is more interesting than he is a potential meteoric riser for me, TGA is a stud and potential offseason top 100 guy if you wanna be aggro about placing him. He’s at least going to be a Pick to Click for me

Lord Thunder: Is Troy Melton‘s success in the bullpen jeopardizing his long-term prospects as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK, Detroit has been pretty deft about moving gus from one to the other, remember when Mize was in the ‘pen for a second? I think the depth needed at the position means they’ll stretch him back out, but I guess Briske is an example of them cutting bait and being happy with an impact ‘pen arm.

BTinVT: Thoughts on Jonathan Long? Thank you

Eric A Longenhagen: Nice corner piece, good part time player with real power, lack of athleticism and oppo tendency scares me. Not a total mirage like Mervis turned out to be imo.

Emil Morales: Thanks for choosing my question… but that wasn’t really a direct answer. Is the offensive environment dictated by park factors mostly / OR by the players teams choose to send there?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s dictated some by “park factor” elements like altitude and the distance of the fences but in some leagues, especially the smaller ones like the Cal League, if you’re gauging “average” park factor based on the other stadiums in the league but all the parks play small, then “park factors” in the truest sense aren’t really useful or telling. There’s some year-to-year PF variance that’s probably based on the year’s talent pool, and there’s probably a post-COVID gap/change in the way we should think about it because of the way roster limits changed the nature of talent distro in the sport

Bob: Can Jacob Misiorowski overcome his recent struggles and solidify his role in the Brewers’ starting rotation as they push for a World Series run?

Eric A Longenhagen: Leave him in the rotation with a short leash. I don’t want him having to totally change how he gets ready to come into a game at this late a stage.

Arcadian: Murakami’s insane pace rn has me wondering if the biggest thing for him coming over is hitting velocity and improving Z contact?

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Munetaka Murakami has posted mid-60s contact rates the last 3 years – do you think he’s an average big leaguer without a swing change?

Eric A Longenhagen: His transition will be dictated by adjustment to secondary stuff. 50% miss versus all offspeed types right now

Eric A Longenhagen: I would be scared to bet big on him if I’m an MLB team

Michioku Kaku: I’ve always wondered….how do teams actually communicate and make trades? Is it the GM’s really calling each other, as portrayed? I find this hard to believe. MLB Discord or Teams channels? Text?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sometimes at the start it can be any of a few members of the org, usually upper level execs talking to one another in instances where they have a pre-existing relationship. At a certain point, let’s call it a certain level of seriousness, the one or two people who’d you’d think would be negotiating would be who is on the phone.

Alec: It looks like their prospect ratings are pretty similar, so with both debuting this year do you have greater confidence in Luis Mey or Edgardo Henriquez establishing themselves as a legitimate bullpen threat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Edgardo’s strikes have been semi better lately while Mey’s have backed up (and imo his conditioning has slipped)

Jim: Miguel Bleis has had rough month in AA. Do you think he’ll be protected/selected in the Rule 5 draft this winter?

Eric A Longenhagen: No

Kevin: What do you know or believe teams with the best player development programs are doing with artificial intelligence tools?

Eric A Longenhagen: AI has been in baseball for a while now, it was a big part of the pitch tipping/sign stealing stuff

Eric A Longenhagen: Mechanical nuances that are tough to detect visually can be polished using AI tools, I’m sure there are many more potential uses than I know about or can even conceive

Will: Do you read into Ethan Holliday’s pro struggles at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kinda because he also wasn’t great from a pure performance standpoint on the showcase circuit.

2131/1213: On the point of short stops, would you consider adding in comparisons to similar players who have graduated in recent years (even if pulled from previous years iterations of this)? At least for me, it could add some good context as to what these evals have tended to mean once guys reach the bigs

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I thought about doing this but wonder if I’d be running afoul of broadcasting rights stuff. I can at least ask David if he’d be okay with it.

Transmission: Apologies if it’s off-topic or too insider-knowledge, but I’m curious how many credible applications you expect to get for the FT Prospect Writer position.  From very outsider eyes, it’s such an extensive and specific set of qualifications that are necessary to be able to do the job well!

Eric A Longenhagen: The timing of the posting is such that scouts whose contracts come up can apply for exactly this reason. It is a crazy job on its own, and my/our standards we set for ourselves at the site are super-duper high from a depth/quality standpoint.

Eric A Longenhagen: No surprise with our poll results whatsoever.

The Prospector: Fangraphs is hiring a new full time prospect writer?  That’s big news right?  That doesn’t mean you’re leaving, right?  Riiiiight?

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK does it?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s definitely a way for you to know…

JK: Anything about the Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez reports that jumps out at you in particular, good or bad?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s really talented and is now here in AZ

Eric A Longenhagen: News breaking bits before I go:
I’m not leaving, it says so in the first sentence of the posting. I love it here and it’d take a godfather offer from a team or different media entity for me to bail.
I mentioned Schoolcraft’s velo earlier and that Josuar has joined Giants camp in Scottsdale. A source also told me Michael King was 91-94 rehabbing yesterday morning in Peoria (though, I wouldn’t fret about that right now).

Eric A Longenhagen: And with that, the clouds have begun to converge on the FanGraphs Desert Vista Compound and I need to get the animals safely inside and tie down stuff in the yard. Thanks for coming again this week, you guys are the best. Next week’s chat is in jeopardy because I need to see an off-the-schedule LAD/MIL camp game that will supposedly feature a ton of Brewers draft picks.

Eric A Longenhagen: and if that starts at 10am my time it’ll be tough to do this

Eric A Longenhagen: okay, bye bye