Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 9/19

Eric A Longenhagen: G’day everyone. We’re likely to have an annotated chat today as I tie up loose ends before heading to an instructional league double header this afternoon and then to Florida, apologies ahead of time.

Slamboni: Tyler O’Neill just finished a second consecutive great season. Is it unreasonable to expect he is a big spring away from the bigs? The Seattle OF is nothing to write home about..

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think that’s unreasonable. He’s answered every challenge thrown at him. I have no issues aggressively promoting players who have performed and O’Neill has. If he rakes in Fall League I’d absolutely let him run with the big leaguers next spring and see hot things go.

Sailor Jerry: Have you seen Ryon Healy this year? Do you think this sort of production is sustainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have. The power is definitely real, it’s approaching 7 raw power. I don’t think he’s going to make as much contact as he has thus far, though.

MetsFan: Who will be the first 2016 draft prospect to hit the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Senzel

Omike765: What’s Dakota Hudson’s ceiling? Front of rotation?

Eric A Longenhagen: More mid-rotation for me. Thought he was the second best college arm in the draft, though I understand why some were turned off by the delivery/health. Love that cutter.

Jeb: Have you heard much about Anderson Tejeda? I read he was easily hitting balls out of Safeco in BP and went oppo during the game. 18 yr old SS are we talking 70 raw power?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely a guy teams were getting in to see before the deadline. In-game bat to ball is pretty raw and he has issues identifying offspeed but the tools are pretty loud. 70 raw? No. He’s a solid all-around middle infield prospect, though.

Steve: What would cause Barreto to move off of SS? Arm, hands, or range?

Eric A Longenhagen: Range for me, but Oakland might decide to live with subpar D there if it means that bat can play at SS. They’ve been doing it with Semien.

Austin: What are your thoughts on Josh Bell? He seems to rake

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah he does that, just need to find him somewhere to play.

Undecided: Your thoughts on Alex Jackson pre-draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought he was the best prep bat in the draft, future plus hit and plus raw power.

Marky mark: Any interesting nats prospects to keep an eye out for?

Eric A Longenhagen: Other than the guys you probably know, I’ve always liked Sheldon Neuse, I think Blake Perkins is interesting despite a poor statistical season and they had a big International class led by Luis Garcia while Juan Soto has popped up.

Justin: Is Mitch Keller the next big time prospect for the Pirates? What is his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe not “big time” but yeah, he’s good. Low to mid-90s, tight breaking ball. Some don’t love the delivery and think there’s significant arm deceleration on the changeup. Overall a good prospect but I don’t think he’s on Taillon, Glasnow, Cole level.

Greg: When I see prospects slumping at the end of a full season, I tend to assume they must be exhausted since they don’t have a long record of playing full seasons and dismiss their slumps as having little meaning. Is this a fair thing to do in the absence of having any direct knowledge?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s fair and I tend to do the same thing. It gives the player the benefit of the doubt, which I think they deserve, and is also just a legitimate variable to consider.

Alex: Weigel, Allard, Soroka, Fried, Touki. What’s your take on the absurd talent to go through Rome this year? How would you rank them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fried and Allard probably ahead of the rest, Weigel has monster stuff but is wild, same with Touki. Soroka more sink/pitchability. Would probably have them Fried/Allard (gap) Touuki, Soroka, Weigel right now, but that could change as we get into org lists this offseason and I talk to more people.

Jim: Why do you let Carson intentionally mispronounce your job title? It kind of makes you seem like a wannabe fratboy rushing a fraternity.

Eric A Longenhagen: Because I really don’t care, Carson is trying to be goofy not malicious. Trust me, if anything made me feel like I was in any kind of frat I’d squash it immediately.

Zonk: Would you say that the AFL is roughly equivalent to AA? Is that a fair comparison?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s probably as close as a minor league level comparison as you’ll get, yes. But because we’re ultimately talking about 6 rosters worth of guys, there is some volatility there. Some years the pitching is more A-ball-ish and the hitters got nuts (remember Dustin Ackley’s Fall League) and last year we had like 8 guys throwing 100+ and hitters weren’t as dominant.

Undecided: Who has been your biggest misses? Someone you thought highly of and has underperformed and someone you didn’t see much of a prospect in that has overacheived your expectations.

Eric A Longenhagen: Whiffed on Domonic Brown. Still not sure what the hell happened there.

Eric A Longenhagen: The other side of things…not sure. I thought Drew Pomeranz was not good but he added that cutter and had a solid season.

Billy Mumphrey: Which is the rarest 80 tool?

Eric A Longenhagen: For position players it’s probably their defense, for pitchers probably curveballs.

Zonk: What farm system, in your opinion, had the best year in terms of internal prospect growth? What prospects really emerged in that system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure if it’s the “best” but just off the top of my head (because, ya know, it’s a chat) Minnesota had a bunch of guys perform well this year on the farm. LaMonte Wade, Huascar Ynoa, Luis Arraez…

DR: I appreciated your glowing words about Tim Corbin some time back. Do scouts sometimes advocate for picking a player based upon the “brand name” of their school? I’m thinking of something like the equivalent of the 2000s when football teams would (seemingly) pick a Miami DB in the later rounds simply based on brand

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s a small factor (and it goes both ways, Rice pitchers, Stanford hitters, etc.) but not a primary reason for drafting a guy.

Eric A Longenhagen: And yeah, those turn of the century Miami teams were insane. I was talking about it with some security guards at Chase Field last week for like 15 minutes and we probably missed guys.

Aladdin Sane: Bryan Hudson actually promising or just grasping at straws? Some reports indicate very high upside, but seems too good to be true from a third round pick.

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely has upside. Guys with that build sometimes grow into elite velocity out of nowhere and Hudson has great curveball feel as well.

Stuafoo: To what extent do MLB scouts have access to Cuban players who haven’t left their country yet? Does the government impose any restrictions on scouting within Cuba given scouts are seemingly obviously there to determine whether or not to sign a guy if/when he leaves?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most of those guys are scouted during international competition. Team Cuba did a PanAm tour this summer. How this will change as Cuban relations evolve is hard to predict.

Reggie: Do you (or other scouts) pay any attention to summer wood bat leagues such as the Northwoods league?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts are omnipresent, yes.

NYTT: Can you elaborate on what you heard about Max Fried from his last start? Are those better grades than what he had before TJ surgery?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s been into the mid-90s, up to like 96 or 97 and flashing a 70 breaking ball.

Reggie: What’s the difference between a catcher being a good receiver and a good framer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Framing is only the ability to make pitches on the fringe of the zone look like a strike. Receiving is a broader term that includes setting up good targets, catching the baseball cleanly, etc.

Q-Ball: Is Joey Gallo overrated? He’s been pretty hack-tastic this year, and the Rangers have had periodic need for a fresh bat. Is he just a left-handed Mike Olt?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think he’s overrated. 80 raw power, really good athlete. We’ve seen other power-before-hit guys flop in the big leagues and yes, Olt is an example. But we’ve also seen guys like Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis bloom late. If you bet on good athletes (and I do) then you can’t just give up on Gallo.

Willis: Whose longterm outlook/ceiling do you like better? Nick Senzel’s or Kevin Maitan’s?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like upside too much not to say Maitan. I’m a sucker for it, man.

Paddington: Jesus Luzardo: If he comes back from TJ, could he become a top of the rotation guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not that good. Mature body, not much projection. Throws hard and has a mature three-pitch mix. Could move fast when he’s healthy, but more of a mid-rotation starter for me, which is still really good. Thought Healthy Luzardo was worthy of a first round pick.

bob: Anyone in the Reds Organization you’re higher on than your colleagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I typically just answer these questions with a sleeper prospect I like. So, Michael Beltre.

weber: Demi Orimoloye has a great season after being drafted last year. His 2016 didn’t go great. Understandably still a young player…..how good can he be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Raw but big physical tools. Was tinkering with some things mechanically this year. Poor performance probably at least partially explained by all the experimenting, but he has always been a long-term project type of prospect.

Kurt: Thoughts on Braden Shipley? Very little buzz after call-up, performance being the main detractor. Does he profile as a #2 or #3 still?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looked great when I saw him last week and I’ll point you to the Fangraphs facebook page for my report.

Scott: Favorite player you saw this year and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: Chris Torres from Seattle. He has this swinging drag bunt thing he does that I find entertaining as all hell.

Loose Seal: Does Yandy Diaz become an everyday MLB player?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe, but it will be based on his glove if he does. I think he’s going to K a ton.

Sir Nerdlington: What’re your offseason plans for prospect coverage here?

Eric A Longenhagen: All 30 org lists with reports on everyone who is a 40 or better and notes on the interesting names below that, a top 100 at the end and lots of coffee.

Bot: What skill or player-type do you think is the biggest blind spot for scouts? What does the scouting community miss on again and again and is there a solution?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s hard for amateur decision makers to evaluate wrist strength in hitters. It’s something, at least for me, that I kind of have to interpolate based on hit location (ie. that ball went farther than I thought it would based on this guy’s swing) and is really only something I can do after seeing it happen several times which, for GMs, directors, guys who only get a look or two at a prospect, isn’t possible.

Danny: What’s a realistic outlook for Francis Martes in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: High-leverage reliever or inefficient but electric mid-rotation starter

hhh: Joey Wendle seems like, as an oldish contact oriented second-baseman, he’s one of those guys who gets overlooked. Have you seen him? Is there an MLB regular in there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I actually saw him at West Chester. Probably not enough power to profile as a regular, especially if even a modicum of the power spike we saw at 2B this year is here to stay.

WYR: Who do you have more confidence in to be a top MLB Pitcher at this point Brady Aiken or Jason Groome.

Eric A Longenhagen: Groome

Hannah Hochevar: Hi Eric. Curious if you think Angel Miranda’s impressive run so far with the M’s is a sign that the O’s missed something or just beginner’s luck. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote about him at the deadline and I was indeed smitten with him. I think the Mariners did an excellent job unearthing him as things started to click. Let me pull up that report for you quick…

Eric A Longenhagen: Here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-aged-lefty-ariel-miranda-mariners-return-for-miley/

Eric A Longenhagen: I put a 40 value grade on him because of risk but thought a little more of him. Alas, such is downside of the FV system.

Hiya: How excited should I be about Franklyn Kilome

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi, I’m Eric Longenhagen for Franklyn Kilome. Do you like big, hard throwing righties with impressive curveball feel? The Franklyn Kilome is for you! Get your Franklyn Kilome while supplies last at participating Clearwater locations.

zach: Kyle Tucker’s stats improved once he was promoted to Lancaster. Is this real improvement or is Lancaster just a better hitter’s park? What are your thoughts on him long term?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lancaster probably inflated things but he’s an excellent prospect and potential middle of the order type of hitter.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Would you adjust Gary Sanchez’s tool grades after seeing him more in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: No. He has always had tremendous power and arm strength and it remains. As does his atrocious receiving.

Tito Polo!: Best name in minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737949&position=C

Sir Nerdlington: Going to the AFL for the first time. Any suggestions on how to make the most of it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, if you haven’t planned your trip yet be sure to check the schedule and make sure you’re coming when there are lots of night games. There are no night games during the world series so avoid coming during that time. Also, I advise you to stay in the East Valley if you can. There’s not a lot to do in Glendale, Surprise, Peoria. Camp in Tempe or Scottsdale if you can. You’re close to stadiums and watering holes there.

Also Eric: Any concerns about Jeff Hoffman’s rocky (ahem) start in the majors? Or just small sample size, a few early bumps, and the challenge of pitching for Colorado?

Eric A Longenhagen: Also on the FG Facebook page if you want my thoughts on that. He looked horrendous last week when I saw him and I nearly had a panic attack in the scout section. No idea what’s going on there.

Matt: How do you like your coffee? Black coffee is terrible

Matt: do you like fruits like mangos on pizza?

Eric A Longenhagen: Leave this place.

Matt: Why did you help to juice the baseballs?

Eric A Longenhagen: We were making mixed drinks and I was asked to.

junior: Will you be doing any 2017 draft covererage?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I’ve been writing about it for the past month or so, going through the prep kids. Working on RHPs now.

AD: Which is a better spectator experience, AFL or Cape Cod?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have never been to the Cape but I like the Fall League’s tranquility and don’t think it can be replicated anywhere else with this level of baseball, which is better than the Cape.

Loose Seal: Would you rather go to a World Series game or a Futures game?

Eric A Longenhagen: World Series

atomikdog: When cistulli pronounces “lead” as the metal, it’s a joke, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a reference to my density.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone time to call it a chat. I need to figure out how to not be screwed by Frontier’s weird baggage fees. I’ll be chatting next week from lovely Florida, so be on the lookout for changes to times, dates, etc due to my instructional league exploits. Bye bye.