Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: Fall League Roster Release

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, Fall League roster reaction piece has been filed and hopefully I’ll have a link for you during this chat. Let’s get into it…

Tommy N.: What do you think of Enyel De Los Santos? He seems to get lost in the Padres’ stacked pitching group.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like him, well-rounded stuff and strike-throwing ability. #4/5 type of starter. Wrote him up here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-725/

JT: What’s your take on Buxton’s recent surge?

Eric A Longenhagen: Told you so?

Eric A Longenhagen: I hope this surge is a sign of things to come for him, and that people will look to this as an example of why patience with prospects is important

Vanessa: How has your evaluation of Corbin Burnes changed this summer? Is he likely a midrotation starter or still a backend type?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stock is certainly up, maybe a #3/4 at this point? I’m still more in the #4 camp on him but I’ve liked him since college. Athletic, fiery, legit four pitch mix, typically 93+ with the fastball.

FH: Thoughts on MacKenzie Gore so far? Better than expected?

Eric A Longenhagen: As advertised. His last start in tomorrow night.

Eric A Longenhagen: is*

Bryan: Austin Beck seems to have recovered from his slow start in recent weeks. How encourage are you by this turnaround and has your assessment of him changed at all after his pro debut?

Eric A Longenhagen: Assessment is the same. Tools are all there, he’s just very raw and has taken a while to adjust to pro pitching, which is much better than he saw in high school, especially because he didn’t do much showcase stuff.

CB: What (if anything) should we read into AFL roster selections? Especially relatively young/old players?  Does the placement of a young player mean the team is pushing them?  Does an older player’s appointment amount to a “prove it” moment?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the player. Some are just in need of reps due to injury. Others, like Henry Owens this year, is to try something, anything, to get them back on track. Others like D.J. Peters are rewards/challenges for great seasons.

Pablo: Can’t find your midseason brewer prospect update – any thoughts on Freddy Peralta? He’s been getting tons of Ks but is somewhat short. Do you think he’ll make it as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll be in tomorrow’s double shot of Daily Notes (non today because of the AFL rosters) but he’s touching 95 with a good changeup and breaking ball. He almost cracked the Brewers summer top 10. I think he does have a shot to start. He’s a little short but he isn’t small.

Oyster Burns: What do you think of andujar going into next year? Does the bat look legit? glove holding him back?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bat to ball skills are legit but I’m not sure how much game power there’s going to be unless there’s a mechanical tweak made. Needs polish on the defensive end but has the tools to be a good defender.

CB: How are AFL roster spots doled out to the MLB teams?  Does each team get X spots, or is it more complicated than that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Each club typically assigns 6 players, give or take a guy, and a taxi squad member. I believe there’s some back and forth between clubs and the AFL about positional needs, preferred assignments, but unaware of the specifics.

Estuve: Mahle over Castillo is confusing to me, but I don’t know all that much about Mahle. And I might be too excited about Castillo. Was ranking those two a tough call?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ranking Castillo was a tough call on his own because you can’t deny the body, athleticism and fastball/changeup combo but some still think his command and lack of consistent breaking ball means he’ll be in the bullpen, and if he is then give me the starter, Mahle.

Short-Season SP Pitchers: If you could pick your top 3 short-season starting pitchers, who would you pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a fun question but open-ended ones like this take too much time to answer in a way that I won’t regret. Sorry.

Tyler: Who is the AFL’s Gleyber Torres this year? A guy who’s well regarded but takes the next step with a huge fall league performance

Eric A Longenhagen: He won’t ascend to the top of overall lists but I expect Andres Munoz to generate a ton of buzz.

Oyster Burns: I know Margot was a big time prospect, but I don’t remember much about the profile. Any reason to think there’s more power as he matures, or is he ideally a speedy lead off dude?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s more power in the body but it will take a swing change to unlock it. I’d leave him alone. It’s a leadoff profile with plus defense in CF for me.

Gest : Barring health, do you predict Hunter Greene will be a better or worse major league pitcher than Chris Archer?

Eric A Longenhagen: I consider Archer a #2/3 and think Greene’s ceiling is higher than that if everything comes together.

odapm: see any future mlb stars in the little league world series?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t watch the LLWS

Gest : Who would you rather have in your system: Mickey Moniak or Taylor Trammell? How big is the gap?

Eric A Longenhagen: I ranked them on the summer 100 so that will give you your answer: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/summer-top-100-prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: The gap is not big

Eric A Longenhagen: And closing based on Moniak’s season, obviously.

Sean: Do you think people were too easily ready to give up on J.P. Crawford? Potential undisclosed injury holding him back early in the season? His post DL numbers have been more in line with early career success.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. No idea if there was an injury or not.

Tim Naehring: For ceiling and probability of reaching it, who ya got:  Yasel Antuna or Freudis Nova? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Antuna is having a great season but I prefer Nova. He’s just more explosive.

Nate: Eric, Seby Zavala has had a great season between Kannapolis and Winston Salem.  Is he a real prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Profiles as more of a power-before-hit backup but he’s a prospect.

Tony: Greg Allen– will he hit enough to be a starter long term?  Intrigued by his speed but concerned he is more of a fourth outfielder type.

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw him a buch last year and slapped a 50 on him (league average starter) but most of the scouts I talk to think that was aggressive and this year has moved me toward that assessment, too.

Tom M.: What happened to Jake Thompson? He went from one of the centerpieces of a major trade to being an absolute 0. If he goes into the bullpen, do you see him with increased velocity — say in the 93-96 MPH range with the wipeout slider he was supposed to possess, but never materialized in the bigs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff is not as crisp as it was a few years ago. He’s a below average athlete, body isn’t great, wonder if that has to do with it.

Guest: Do you think Danny Jansen can stick behind the plate?  What would be a reasonable line for him?  Think he can hit .290 with 15 – 20 homers or is that too optimistic?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s fine back there. Offensively, I have no idea what he’s going to do because this year’s performance has been so incredible I almost don’t believe it’s real.

Matt: Is Mike Ford any kind of prospect of note? The numbers in the high minors this year are very impressive. Any chance he gets a shot at 1B in Sept/next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed he’s hit well in upper-minors but NYY acquisition of Cooper and McBroom kinda tells you what they think of Ford.

Scott: Astros prospect Jairo Solis has some really good numbers thus far as a 17 year old in rookie ball.  Has his stuff ticked up?

Eric A Longenhagen: 91-94 touch 96, still has some projection.

LudeBurger: You label Future Values on so many other people in this world, but what is your Future Value, Eric? (not meant to sound abrasive, more of a joke)

Eric A Longenhagen: If human contributions to society are laid out on a 20-80 scale then I’m probably a 30. I’m chatting about baseball in a Pokemon t-shirt and boxer briefs while people rescue the elderly from a hurricane.

Anthony: What’s your favorite area to scout? AFL, AZL, college, etc?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fall League and Area Codes are neck and neck

My Man Stanton: Thoughts on Brian Anderson, MIA 3B? Does he have a good shot of being a fixture in their lineup going forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he hits enough to be an average regular but he has throwing accuracy issues that need to be remedied.

D’Angelo: Who has the better offensive skill set, Robles or Acuna?

Eric A Longenhagen: Acuna, more power.

LudeBurger: Also, I am the ichthyologist from previous chats and I just passed a big hurdle in my Masters program. Welcome, piranhas!

Eric A Longenhagen: Congrats, I am partial to sharks.

Soxfan90 : Given Devers’ presence at third, what becomes of Chavis?  Great season, but does he fit first base or will he be more of a trade chip?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe we’ll see him move around in the AFL?

Jamie: Do you have any updated opinions of Marlins prospect Brian Anderson since the pre-season Marlins’ list?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have updated top 10s for all orgs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-top-10-prospect-lists-al-east/

Batman: How do you project the White Sox Rotation when they’re competitive? I would go Rodon/Kopech/Hansen/Lopez/Giolito

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d slot Dane Dunning in there somewhere, at least one of the guys you listed will probably wind up in the bullpen.

Babadook: Who do the Cards sent to the fall league?  Alcantara, Sierra, and that other speedy CFer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Alcantara is coming, so is Jordan Hicks.  Oscar Mercado is the OF they’re sending.

Kevin: Have you seen Dilon Tate this year? With a strong showing at Arizona League, can he get back his top prospect status?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll probably need to be healthy for an entire year before we start talking about him as a ‘top prospect’ but if his stuff is great while he’s here that a good start.

Drew: Does player evaluation chafe for specific teams? I’m thinking about teams that are known to teach specific pitches very well

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel a sense of security when projecting a player in orgs that have a clear track record of player development (it’s why I was aggressive with Paul DeJong and am with Yankees pitchers, for example) but it doesn’t really change how they’re evaluated

PTBNL: Jason Groome had an underwhelming first professional season, do you still have him above Houck in the Sox system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hell yes

Cartman: Why does it seem like everyone in short-season A- puts up poor numbers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bizarre competitive environment with heavy emphasis on development for the guys who are honest to goodness prospects

Saltie : Do the Rangers look mighty foolish for giving up on Tate so early, or are there some smoke and mirrors here?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, they knew more about Tate than anyone when they gave him up. They did it to try to win a title and it just didn’t work out and it looks bad simply because Tate still exists. Did they ‘win’ the deal? No, pretty objectively no. But it doesn’t mean it was a bad deal.

Joe from Minnesota: Is Wander Javier gonna push his way onto your top-100 list this offseason? He’s been raking this year after a decent amount of hype preseason.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah relatively polished shortstops like that typically have a shot to land on the back of the 100.

Tom M.: Can Adam Haseley be a truly productive MLBer with his inside-out swing? I know he generated power at Virginia, but he hasn’t done much in A-ball so far. I like his BB%, but can he be a 15-25 HR guy, since he rarely seems to pull the ball with power?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can’t see that kind of power but think the combination of contact and defense will make him an everyday guy. League average line in CF this year is like .260/.340/.430, which is pretty good, but I think he out-hits those first two columns.

Mikey T: This has been the most depressing Giants season and minor league season in my lifetime. Is there any hope for us? Is it just Heliot Ramos?

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually really like their AZL team (Ramps has a concussion now, btw) and scouts are partial to Aaron Bond, Ricardo Genoves and Diego Rincones. I don’t think the system has a fast-rising star but lots of potential big league pieces.

PTBNL: Any updates on the possibility of Otani in the MLB next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve heard there’s a good chance. His initial bonus will be small compared to market value but he could just sign a new contract shortly after that.

Anthony: Deichmann’s been pretty good so far. I know you were down on him pre-draft. Any reasons for optimism, or largely college player just beating up low – level pitching?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m always skeptical of college hitters, especially ones who are used to good college pitching like you see in the SEC, feasting on low-level minor leaguers after the draft. It’s good that he’s hitting, though.

Jay: Saw someone tweet out that their roster had Francisco Mejia listed as an INF and not a C. Glendale roster page says he’s a C. What is he on the list you were given? Do you think Cleveland tries him at 1B with Carlos Santana an impending FA?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a catcher. He was an INF on the roster I got yesterday but there were several other typos. I’ll check to make sure, and if he is going to see time on the infield I’ll report it, but for now I assume it’s just an innocent mistake and that he’ll be catching.

Anthony: Not sure if you address this in the piece, but most surprising inclusion/exclusion on AFL rosters this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did a spit take when I saw Henry Owens’ name.

Proops: If you had to pick one of Yordan Alvarez and Ryan McMahon, who do you take?

Eric A Longenhagen: Alvarez

PTBNL: Have you considered doing a top farm systems piece in addition to top prospect pieces? Might be interesting to see things at the club-level as well as at the player-level.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but I think depth is an important part of those rankings and I’m waiting until I see teams instructional league teams in Florida before doing farm system rankings for the first time.

eno: is kyle cody a legit MORP possibility at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: We called it Sadie Hawkins

Eric A Longenhagen: He has mid-rotation stuff, yeah.

The Dude: Does Acuna’s spot on the AFL roster mean 0% chance at a call up?

Eric A Longenhagen: It does not, we’ve seen guys be listed on the roster and then be called up in September before.

He Hate Me: I know you’re not high on Josh Ockimey just because he’s from Philly but some who have seen him complain that he’s too “passive.” Is that a common thing? Something that could hurt him as he climbs the rungs?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not ‘common’ but I’ve heard it associated with guys before. Wil Myers comes to mind. I think that’s easier to fix than ‘too aggressive’ and think Ockimey has a good shot to be an everyday guy.

Jim: Do the managers have much say in the rosters in the AFL on who plays etc. or is it more of a prospect rotate them out kind of thing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Playing time is very evenly distributed for developmental purposes and only late in the ‘season’ do they show any signs of managing to win games.

GPT: Very encouraging season for Garrett Williams, can he stick as a SP long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has the stuff to, yes. I think there’s a chance. He’s had issues throwing strikes for a long time but it was so bad at OKst that he was basically shelved, so this is an improvement.

Benny: Erceg had a rough year, as did a lot of lower minors Brewers bats. Something in the water down there or do you think their struggles were warranted?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have no real answer for you but I agree that it’s unfortunate many of their high-profile hitters have had down years.

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/arizona-fall-league-roster-highlights-2…

Eric A Longenhagen: Fall League roster reaction there

Eric A Longenhagen: let me tweet that out very quickly and then hop back in here…

Benny: What are your thoughts on Ryan Boldt? Something there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, saw he’s been hitting. I thought there was really something there when he was in high school and then cooled on him substantially when I saw how big he’d gotten in college. If he’s had a swing change that will allow him to make better contact, then yes I think he has a chance to be quite good. I don’t yet know if that has occurred.

Tyler: Re: Andres Munoz–How much weight do you put into walk rates in lower minors? Despite a 13K/9, hard to look past the 6 BB/9

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a relief-only prospect for me and I agree that’s a lot of walks. But how many teenagers do you know that throw 100? It’s going to take time to harness that stuff.

Geronimo A: For ceiling and probability of reaching it, who ya got:  Estevan Florial or Jesus Sanchez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a Sanchez guy but you’re right to line them up with eachother.

BR: Thoughts on Oscar De La Cruz? Often injured, but potentially devastating stuff it seems

Eric A Longenhagen: Was 88-92 for me two Fridays ago (or was it Thursday?) down here in AZ.

Billy Beane: Does Yairo Munoz interest you at all? KATOH and Carson seem to like him but he didn’t crack your midseason top 10.

Eric A Longenhagen: 3B for me (and I don’t love him there) and don’t think there’s enough power/on base ability to be an average regular. Like him as a utility guy.

CB: The Fringe Five loves Ryan Helsley (STL-AA). Do you?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do not. He’s interesting, but I’m not all in right now.

Jim: how is playing time divided up in AFL with 4 catchers on roster?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rotating behind the plate with lots of DH’ing when you’re not wearing the gear.

Ford: Any idea why Marcus Wilson hasn’t been promoted? Seems like he’s ‘solved’ A ball and adjusted to the adjustments

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question that I don’t have an answer for. I know Matt McPhearson is having a better year up in Hi-A but it’s not like there’s a glut of OF prospects  blocking a Wilson promotion.

Nick: Do you think Jackson Kowar or Jeremy Eierman have a shot at going 1-1? If no HS RHP makes history, who else is in the running for 1-1?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s so early to say but I think looking toward the shortstops, college and pro, is a good place to start.

The Swanson, Rodgers, Bregman draft can give us guidance here. Eierman, who I really like, has power and if you think he can stay at shortstop then of course he’s in the conversation. Bregman wasn’t a consensus SS and still went very high. Swanson didn’t have huge offensive tools but when you step back and look at what one has to do to be a quality big league SS (Jordy Mercer is a 45/50, folks) then of course he was worthy of a high selection. That might be Brice Turang this year. And then Brendan Rodgers wasn’t a consensus SS for everyone but had power and could hit, that might be Nander de Sedas this year.

Taco Guy: Any thoughts on Joe McCarthy? Not a typical 1B profile but he seems to be holding his own in AA.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cistulli asked me about him yesterday on the podcast, so give that a listen when it goes up. I think he’s a big leaguer of some sort, more likely a platoon option or bench bat than everyday guy.

Stuafoo: Who’s your favorite prospect who you think has the least likely chance to succeed?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fran Cespedes

Reincarnated Frank Menechino: Do you have any updates on the AZL A’s? Specifically: teenage hype-centers Lazarito, Austin Beck, and Nick Allen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lazarito looks really good, he’s timing everything and has great bat speed. Beck I’ve talked about, Allen remains the same: great glove, scouts not sure how much bat will be there.

Jim: how do you make money, does fangraphs pay you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. I am a fangraphs employee.

Jason D.: How many games do you think you watch each season?  All levels

Eric A Longenhagen: I stopped counting when I moved here. 200-250? There are days when I’m seeing 3-4 games, sometimes simultaneously.

Jason D.: Best AFL park to watch a game at?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scottsdale. 70 water fountains. 30 parking, though.

august gary sanchez: no tebow this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: It was such a zoo last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, thanks for stopping in. That’s it for me this week. See you next Tuesday, be well and enjoy baseball in the interim. And please consider helping out our friends in Houston if you have the means.