Evolution of Lincecum
The first pitch Tim Lincecum ever threw in the major leagues was reported to be 99 MPH on the Giants stadium gun (we don’t have Pitch F/x data for that performance, unfortunately). He then proceeded to hit 100 three times in his first big league inning, showing the velocity that had gotten him drafted in the first round, even as scouts were concerned with his command, delivery, and workload. In that first year, Lincecum’s fastball averaged 94.2 MPH, the seventh hardest fastball in the game, and he threw it 67 percent of the time.
Other than the hair, Lincecum barely resembles the pitcher he was just three years ago.
You don’t need a best fit line to see the trend in that image. His velocity has been steadily falling since he arrived in the big leagues, and through his first three starts this year, his fastball is averaging just 91.7 MPH. He has thrown 312 pitches this year, and only three of them have topped 95. He now throws about as hard as Matt Harrison and Clayton Richard. But, this is the crazy thing – it hasn’t mattered at all.
While Lincecum’s lost his top end fastball, he’s shown zero effects from it. In 20 innings this year, he has a 2.20 xFIP, and he’s still blowing hitters away with nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s worked in his slider more often and increased his change-up usage, so he now throws nearly as many off-speed pitches as he does fastballs. In just three years, Lincecum has gone from a flame throwing ace to a junkballer whose best asset his the command of his secondary stuff.
It’s a pretty remarkable transformation. The pitcher he is now is almost the exact opposite of the guy he was in college. If you watched Lincecum in college, where he posted a career 5.7 BB/9, and projected that he’d become more Greg Maddux than Nolan Ryan, you’d have been laughed out of the room. But that’s essentially what has happened.
Usually, when we point to reduced velocity, there are injury concerns or performance declines, but there’s really nothing like that with Lincecum. He’s still one of the best pitchers in the game – he’s just doing it in a dramatically different way.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
When Gammons was doing the intro for him that game, he talked about his change possibly being his best pitch. I almost fell over laughing because he was a FB curve guy who didn’t throw his change all that much. Now he has 4 above average pitches, and that change is an ethereal pitch. It’s almost more fun watching him now because you never know what he’ll throw.
If Peter Gammons watched game tapes of Tim’s five games for Fresno before being called up, I can see how he came away impressed with Tim’s change up. In Tim’s first start for Fresno, he struck out three with his new change up, three with his curve and two with his fastball.
Tim’s curve was hard to miss, though, and coming out of college was likely his best pitch. But Tim’s adding the change up (really a modified forkball) before the 2007 season and his slider before the 2008 campaign has certainly congtributed to his success.
As for his 2007 change up (which Giants announcer Mike Krukow, a pretty decent pitcher himself, say Tim didn’t yet have that season), it took Giants catcher Bengie Molina a while to realize the effectiveness of the pitch. But by the end of the 2007 season, though, it was Tim’s most effective pitch, as Tim stated that hitters were picking up his hammer curve. That might have had something to do with his coming up with a slider the following winter.
Speaking of Peter Gammons, years ago he predicted a World Series win for the A’s, saying southpaw reliever Rick Honeycutt would be the difference.
After a game in which Honeycutt was rocked and the A’s blew the game, my dad happened to run into Gammons in the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum elevator. My dad nodded to Peter, saying “You were right. Honeycutt was the difference alright.”
In a coincidence involving Lincecum, my dad passed away on Tim’s 12th birthday. In a coincidence involving that first start by Lincecum, Tim wore #55, pitching into the 5th inning, gave up five runs on five hits and five walks, striking out five.
Excuse my American League ignorance, but is the drop in Lincecum’s velocity a conscious decision on his part — perhaps to save his arm for later in his career — or is it a sacrifice to improve his command?
That’s sort of my question. The article reads as though Dave is implying that he CAN’T throw it as hard as he used to, but what if he can physically dial it up that high but realizes he doesn’t need to? The kid is 25 years old, when does velocity start to diminish with flamethrowers?
The typical “flamethrowers” start to lose velocity right around age 30. However, given Lincecum’s stature and body type, I wouldn’t call him prototypical. I’m sure he could throw that hard, but I’m not sure if it would be incredibly beneficial for his long term health. We might be witnessing what people were concerned about in the draft: attrition on a body that just can’t bear his prodigious talent.
Lincecum’s just good enough to make up for it.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/preliminary-aging-curve-for-fastball-speed/
“The article reads as though Dave is implying that he CAN’T throw it as hard as he used to, but what if he can physically dial it up that high but realizes he doesn’t need to?”
I dunno if I buy that theory – the graph shows that not only is his average fastball velocity decreasing, but he also doesn’t dial it up the way he used to for certain situations, either. If his decreased velocity is really a choice, then it’s one he seemingly refuses to break, ever.
I’ve read an article recently where in spring training of last year Tim was quoted saying to his pitching coach “I don’t hurt, so where is it?” in reference to his lost fastball velocity. So it really seems like he just can’t gas it like he used to.
I believe that he is just progressing as a pitcher. Only two guys I can think of who were able to throw a ball through a wall throughout long careers – Nolan Ryan and the Big Unit.
Speaking of a flamethrower who “lost it” and had to completely evolve/start over as a pitcher, how about Frank Tanana? Check out his stats – when he came up pitching with the Angels (teammate of Mr. Ryan) he was dealing serious lefty heat. He then hurt his arm in 1979 and had to completely change his pitching style, which he did successfully. He pitched an additional 14 years and won 240 games. It’d be interesting to use some advanced statistics to see how he pitched differently after the injury.
Can we check other great pitchers with 4 plus pitches for this same trend? A pitcher with as many pitches as Lincecum shouldn’t have to throw that hard. As he’s learned how to “”pitch” in the Majors, he has found that his velocity doesn’t need to be 94+ anymore. Natural evolution of a good pitcher, I think.
I read an article on mlb.com a while back quoting him saying he didn’t know where his velocity had gone. I will find it and post it here. Not so sure the velocity drop is intentional.
It may not have been intentional (i’ve seen the article you are referring to), but he also hasn’t had to go looking for it once it disappeared.
It’s not from mlb.com, but this turned up on a Mercury News blog in ST:
Also from Spring Training, and also not from mlb.com (rather Yahoo), there’s this:
Notice that he still brings the heat out when he feels its necessary. I think that one of the things that Rags does really well is to teach giant’s pitchers how to work the fastball in one range, and then dial it up in a pinch. The difference between him and Cain is that Tim doesn’t find himself in a pinch very often. This way, he has three different tiers of speed: change, fastball, and heat. This is probably a conscious decision.
He’s more FB/Change up than breaking pitches though. In that way, I compare him more to Pedro Martinez than Greg Maddux.
Lincecum now throws just over half fastballs, with the rest of his pitches being closely divided between his two breaking balls and his change up. He is making a conscious effort to use his breaking balls more this year.
Tim has cut his walks from 4.0 in 2007 to 3.3 in 2008 to 2.7 in 2009. This won’t hold up, but so far this season he’s at a paltry 0.9.
As Tim’s career has gone on, he has become more and more comfortable throwing any of his four pitches in any situation — although the change up is increasingly becoming his strikeout pitch.
If the Giants ever make the playoffs, I am guessing we will find out the true answer. I guarantee if the velocity is still there that is when he would use it. If he doesn’t then my guess would be that the innings are catching up to him and his velocity will continue to decrease. It is nice to see a guy like him, and I hope that injuries don’t catch up to him. It is really nice to see a guy evolve and develop from a throwing into a pitcher. You don’t see that at all. And even if his velocity continues to decrease I bet he will continue to be successful. Pitching isn’t always all about velocity.
I agree, he really is extremely fun to watch. I’m going to the game this friday, he currently is lined up to pitch that one, knock on wood, so that should be great. I hope that someday soon I will feel the same way about Strasburg. I really want him to succeed and become one of the most exciting pitchers in baseball. My hope for both of them is a HOF-worthy career.
Lincecum has pitched at a Hall of Fame level thus far in his career. His ERA+ of 156 is the highest of any starter ever (although it should be noted that he obviously hasn’t gone through a decline phase.
The past two seasons Tim has pitched at a level which if he continued it for 10 more years, would likely make him one of the best pitchers of all time.
L-O-N-G way to go for that though. But my expectation was that he would continue his improvement this year and that he actually entered the season with perhaps one in four chance of a sub-2.00 ERA.
A reasonable average prediction for him would be in the high two’s, but I believe 2010 will be Tim’s best season yet. The question is, how long can he keep improving? I think he’s getting close to his limit, but who knows?
From what I have heard, Lincecum almost exclusively uses his 2-seamer now, for movement and control. If that is the case, it can pretty easily explain the drop in velocity.
He’s always used mostly the 2-seamer.
He’s still effective, absolutely, but I don’t think the velocity drop is intentional. If it were, you think that once in a while you’d see him flash 98. I don’t think he can throw that hard anymore. Luckily for him, his splitter is so good that all he needs is about 7 mph between that and his fastball and he’ll be effective. If he can stay healthy. And to me, that’s a pretty large if.
It doesn’t take a genius to predict a pitcher will get hurt, because they all do. But I’m not sure why you think he’s at risk over any other pitcher. The only time he was seriously hurt was swinging a bat. This isn’t Mark Prior and his “perfect” delivery were talking about. In truth, we have no idea how he will age and whether or not he’ll stay healthy.
My belief has been that Tim’s unique delivery — which is intended to have his body carry his arm in much the same way that a pole vaults a pole vaulter over the bar — makes him less than an average injury risk.
I believe his area of greatest vulnerability is his core, but he has been working on core flexibility and strength for most of his life. He also is blessed with tremendous flexibility. He can perform back flips (a la Ozzie Smith), can walk on his hands, and can perform a gymnist’s kip, the movement that allows a gymnast to “leap” from a prone position to his feet.
He’s always used the 2-seamer as his primary fastball, including those fastballs Dave mentioned in his first game that were hitting triple digits.
He never tried the 4-seam before, according to reports from Giants announcers who talked to him about it. If he used that, it would add a couple of miles to his fast ball, reportedly.
Which velocity readings were used for this article? The stadium radar gun or the same radar gun as MLB Gameday?
Has the run value of his fastball declined with the velocity?
wFB/C
’07 – 0.29
’08 – 1.11
’09 – 0.59
’10 – 2.08 (SSS alert)
In my limited experience with pitch-type valuations, there hasn’t been a whole lot of year-to-year consistency with them, so it would be tough to read much of anything from those numbers.
There was a major drop in effectivity from ’08 to ’09, the two years we should really be looking at (’07 was a partial rookie season).
According to Fan Graphs, Tim’s fastball was his best pitch in 2008, replaced by his amazing change up last season. Thus far in 2010 they have his fastball and change up of equal value. Since Tim throw’s just over two fastballs for every curve, that would mean that on a per-pitch basis, Tim’s change has been twice as effective as his rejuvenated fastball (from a success standpoint, not a speed standpoint).
I guess when your FB averages below 92 for 3 starts you automatically become a junkballer. Don’t get me wrong, Lincecum has evolved as a pitcher and has improved his command but to suggest he can’t blow away hitters is wrong. By the way, Felix Hernandez has also lost a couple mph on his FB too.
In the past, Lincecum’s father has said that Lincecum’s delivery puts less stress on his arm and that his son has never felt soreness in his arm. If the decrease in velocity for Lincecum is not one of volition then that would seem to contradict those claims. Another thought about Lincecum is that since he relies more on his athleticism in his delivery than most pitchers, it will be interesting to see how he pitches when he reaches 30.
What article did you read?
If you’re referring to the stuff about Lincecum’s dad, I believe that’s from an article in Sports Illustrated that Verducci wrote right around Lincecum’s call up. The article had a lot of discussion about the gensis of Lincecum’s delivery. I would guess (without having looked the article up) that it came from there.
It’s not a conscious change. Lincecum straight up admits that he doesn’t know where his fastball went.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-lincecum022210
I think it is a combination of factors. The absolute drop in his best fastball looks real, he simply can’t throw it near 100 MPH anymore if his life depended on it. But part of the drop is clearly a change in philosophy and pitching style. It is possible that is what he feels he must do to pitch 200+ innings a year as an ace. Many pitchers exhibit decreased velocities as they age who still remain as effective as they ever were at their maximum velocity. Velocity, location and movement are the three ways that pitchers get outs. A decline in velocity can be masked by improving the other areas.
Does a decline in velocity necessarily mean an arm injury? Lincecum has a long, explosive stride to the plate. Could it be that he’s just lost something off of that explosiveness which has resulted in a loss of velocity without any arm problems? If so, it might be something of which he isn’t really aware, and hence he might not know where his velocity went.
It’s funny how the Giants’ top two strikeout-heavy starting pitchers (Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez) actually have less velocity on their fastball than a guy (Matt Cain) who has been dropping in K/9 numbers since his first full season with the Giants. Sanchez averaged about the same on his fastball last year (91.7 MPH), but Sanchez, when he’s on, has an amazing ability to strikeout guys as well.
I think one reason Lincecum and Sanchez are so good at making guys whiff (in addition to their secondary pitches, which are very good, while Cain’s secondary pitches aren’t), are their deliveries. Both Sanchez and Lincecum are very deceptive and though they are not blowing guys away, I think batters have a hard time picking up the ball, despite the lack of heat behind the pitches. I think Bumgarner could be similar: he has a delivery that from what I heard, that makes it tough for hitters to pick up pitches. If Bumgarner develops his secondary pitches, then the lack of velocity won’t matter (the only problem is that his secondary pitches aren’t that well developed yet).
I agree, I’m sure their motions help a lot. Lincecum’s stride is enormous and Sanchez comes from the side. Pitchers who don’t do the prototypical over the top motion can be tougher to hit. Also, Lincecum can get closer to the plate than many pitchers for less reaction time.
According to Fan Graphs, Matt Cain lost a mile per hour off his fastball in 2008, but regained some of it last season.
Here is an amazing analysis of Lincecum’s mechanics. “Conclusion: Lincecum’s mechanics are basically perfect.” Oh and, ChuckO, Lincecum is actually extremely quick to home plate. If anything is long it’s his stride.
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/06/12/pitcher-analysis-tim-lincecum/
This could explain why he doesn’t even ice his arm after he pitches. He uses every ounce of his body/athleticism to his advantage.
I was extremely confused when I was watching highlights of him the other day and saw a relatively straight pitch popping at 91-92. I thought he must have adopted a new slider. I would be interesting to see an analysis like the one above now to see if he is still as explosive/quick to the plate, or if he has toned down his delivery to gain command.
“Oh and, ChuckO, Lincecum is actually extremely quick to home plate. If anything is long it’s his stride.”
It looked to me like ChuckO was referring to his stride when he called it long….
Tim may have (or at least had) the fastest arm movement of any pitcher.
Yeah this was an issue when he was drafted and can be seen in some like Pedro where their body couldn’t handle it as much. I was always high on Lincecum for his excellent command and adaptibility. I had seem in College and while his velocity impressed me , I had seen college flamethrowers such as the Rice Big three before. He had something that most college flamethrowers don’t which is strong command for his age and level. WHich is why I agreed with the Giants picking him up because despite concerns of his small stature this guy was a good pitcher. Its probably not intentional, he’s not throwing slow all the time it seems but he can’t pull back and throw the same way like he used to. So he’s getting smarter and moving the ball around more. Guess what it works. It will probably be better for him in the long run especially with his high workloads. its also possible that he’s suffering from a sort of dead arm that is hampering his normal velocity a bit. Who knows but its probably for the best since he’s becoming a more complete pitcher. I wouldn’t say he’s maddux yet but he definitely is using much more finesse.
Tim’s control began improving when he pitched in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2005 (after his sophomore season). Tim was quoted as saying it all came together there.
The hair’s pretty different, actually.
I don’t think Lincecum needs to look any further than Tim Hudson and Roy Oswalt for a glimpse at his future. Hudson and Oswalt are similar to Timmy in their diminutive stature, and each of their respective fastball velocities trended down after their first few years. But their effectiveness did not (substantially) follow suit, at least for the first 8 or 9 years. Though they are each now beginning their twilight years, a decade of solid success and 100 million dollars in bank isn’t a bad life to hope for.
I think a maddox-esque ability to get men out after the velocity leaves might be too much to expect.
Oswalt also did not ice his arm when he came up but warned Lincecum that he eventually had to.
Is posting a Lincecum story on 4/20 intentional?
Yes, because Lincecum is a small man with a large following… like Hitler!
(Yes, that’s humor… too soon?)
I’m curious how his father retiring and is now available in person 24×7 if necessary to help him tweak things mechanically might help him.
While Tim rightly gives huge credit to his dad for helping to make him what he is, Chris is also mature enough to have given Tim the freedom as a professional to solve his own problems unless he requests help. They have done a lot of texting over the years though.
When Tim struggled for the only elongated time in his professional career, over four starts beginning on June 3rd of his rookie season, Chris gave Tim the freedom to work it out himself, as Tim preferred to do. There was talk of having Tim skip a start, pitch in relief or even (God forbid, since it would have been futile) send him back to Fresno for a bit.
In Tim’s last start in June — in what was probably a last opportunity for Tim before the Giants took some type of temporary action as they had done with Matt Cain the previous season — he put together an excellent outing against the Padres and followed up on July 1st with a 12-strikeout shutout of the Diamondbacks over 7 innings. He has never really looked back.
I assume “junkballer” was for comedic effect? I don’t remember a lot of junkballers with a ~92mph fastball.
I’m pretty sure most junkballers aren’t working off the threat of their fastball to devastating effect.
I found the “junkballer” comment to be hilarious/ridiculous as well.
I mean, did he suddenly turn into a right-handed Kirk Reuter or Jamie Moyer? What about Walt Terrell?
Name me a starter who consistently dialed it into the high 90’s for their career and had any semblance of success and longetivity? I can think of 2 – Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson. Lincecum is just continuing his progression as a pitcher, and that entails the ability to take something off the ball, locate it, and dial it up when needed. I think if he continued to try and throw the ball through a wall, he would potentially face physical issues. Why press his luck? If he can comfortably pitch in the low 90’s, locate at his leisure, and then crank it up to 97 when needed, GOD BLESS!
I thought the junkballer comment fit in well with the previous statement about how almost half his pitches were offspeed stuff. It wasn’t meant to say he’s like a Jamie Moyer out there, just that he throws a high proportion of offspeed stuff.
Just to add two cents about his ability to dial it up. In a start late last season when his velocity was on a downward trend (I believe BTB had a graph showing it) He was pitching against the cards and Pujols steped into the box. I had gameday up and he jumped from 91 the previous pitch to 97 against Albert. So, yea I think he can gas it when he needs to.
Just looked this up at Brooks to confirm/deny. June 29, 2009. 3 AB vs. Pujols.
Pujols At Bat / Avg FB / Max FB / Result
1 / 96.4 / 96.8 / SO
2 / NA / NA / LO
3 / 94.5 / 94.5 / 2B
Previous At Bats to Pujols (Derosa..)
AB / Avg / Max
1 / 94.4 / 95
2 / 94.6 / 95
3 / 93.4 / 93.6
Entire Game (Avg / Max)
94.0 / 96.8
Take from that what you will.
“Junkballer” that term does not apply to Lincecum. You must be a secret Tim Lincecum Giant hater. Very worried with your full time addition.
Very worried about the quality of commenter the site is attracting.
i think junkballer was a bit of an overstatement, this isn’t Daniel Ray Herrera here. He still hits 94 during his starts, that’s more than enough for tiny tim.
I think saying Tim is a junkballer is somewhat like saying that a rooster gets up late in the morning. The morning part is correct.
No, it’s like saying that with the advent of the A380, the 747 has gone from a jumbo jet to a sardine can. The truth (and the point) in the statement lies not in the absolute, but in the relative.
It would appear we were visited by Lincecum’s mom and/or agent. 😛
It’ll be a sad day if Cameron has to give up on nuance, hyperbole, simile, and sarcasm just to make his point clear for the mouth-breathing literalists.
First off — not much room left in the sar-chasm with people tumbling into it left and right over the junkballer comment…
As for Tim hitting 100 in his first start: that was the stadium gun, which I am as certain as I can possibly be was juiced to herald the arrival of the Giants’ shiny new toy. I wouldn’t pay much attention to it — I don’t recall ever seeing him hit higher than 98 at any point, and even in his rookie year 97 was where his max fastball generally sat.
All that said, I do think the velocity drop is for real, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it continued. Other pitcher comparisons aren’t as useful with Timmy as they are with most other pitchers, because the way that he generates energy potential is so unorthodox. The posters who have mentioned Tim’s athleticism, flexibility, and gymnastic capabilities are pointing at the real signifier; and to predict Tim’s future velocity, the aging curve of gymnasts is probably a better indicator than other pitchers.
Lincecum’s delivery, as has been stated ad nauseam, is designed to reduce stress on his arm by generating torque with the rest of his body — and specifically his core. But no matter how agile someone may be, agility decreases beginning around the early or mid-twenties as muscles in general (and more to the point, core muscles) begin to thicken. The thickening of these muscles may not diminish their overall strength, but it does reduce their fast-twitch capabilities, which in Lincecum’s case likely means that the amount of energy he can generate with his delivery is slightly reduced due to the fact that he can’t get everything firing quite as quickly as he could in younger days. That’s my theory, at least.
I don’t know when this is going to become a concern, though, because at least so far, his success has been inversely proportional to his fastball velocity, at least roughly. So let’s all relax about pure velocity and just enjoy watching a once-in-a-generation talent.
I think you guys answered the question of whether it is a choice or not by looking at the walk rates. NOTICE that the walks have declined every year as he has learned to control his fastball better?
He still hits 94-95 regularly even if the avg. velocity is lower. To call him a “junkballer” is laughable. He is the scariest type of pitcher: A guy that can still blow you away or make you look absolutely stupid on the offspeed stuff. “Junkballers” don’t have the ability to blow guys away. Timmy still does.
Prior to last night, opponents were 0-17 against Lincecum with runners in scoring position. They were able to get their first hit last night in that situation with a seeing eye single up the middle.
BOTH Lincecum and Matt Cain have made a conscious effort to control their stuff better at the sacrifice of the radar gun numbers. BOTH pitchers are lights out, despite dropping multiple miles on their fastball. Both also have a tendency to buckle down with men on and dial it up a little higher. That isn’t a coincidence. It is a conscious effort on the part of both pitchers.
Also, another thing to note is the variation on Lincecum’s fastball speeds.
If you look at his first game against Houston for example, he hit 95 multiple times, but the fastball ranged from 90-95. Most pitchers will just pump 92-92-92 all day long on their fastball. Lincecum doesn’t. His speed varies from pitch to pitch. It is no wonder guys are off balance.
Also, be aware of the small sample size on his velocity. He has only thrown in 4 games and clearly didn’t have his fastball against Atlanta. He ranged from 87-91 that day. In his other three starts, he has ranged from 90-95. He worked at mostly 90-93 last night, but did hit 94. He hit 95 in both the LA and Houston games.
Having watched Lincecum a lot, when he used to pump it up there 97+, it had a tendency to sail high on him. I don’t know if he can hit 97 still, but he doesn’t put that thing up high on a consistent basis either like he did when he first came up.
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