Fan Projections Update

by
January 14, 2011

Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley yesterday wrote an article titled, “FanGraphs Fan Projections Are Craaaaazy”. And there certainly was something crazy going on with some players on the Braves.

Long story short: I’ve made some updates and the Braves projections have returned to sanity and now look like this:

Player       Fans   CarAvg    Diff
Heyward, J   .393   .376      .017
McCannn, B   .360   .364     -.004
Uggla, D     .365   .359      .006
McLouth, N   .337   .343     -.006
Prado, M     .351   .352     -.001
Freeman, F   .332   .213      .119
Gonzalez, A  .294   .298     -.004

Player        Fans    CarAvg    Diff
Hanson, T     3.25     3.38    -0.13
Lowe, D       3.94     3.80     0.14
Minor, M      3.83     3.77     0.06
Jurrjens, J   4.02     3.85     0.17
Hudson, T     3.98     3.82     0.16





 

David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

11 Comments
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SeaWolfMember since 2020
15 years ago

Was it only the Braves’ projections that were off or were other teams/players affected as well?

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David AppelmanFanGraphs Staff
15 years ago
Reply to  SeaWolf

The one other player that saw a big change was Albert Pujols. Other than that I think it was only the braves. This issue only popped up in the past couple days due to the introduction of some bad ballots that weren’t being properly validated.

0
Fred
15 years ago

This long story sounds interesting to elaborate upon.

1
Biased Fan
15 years ago

I’m a Braves Fan, and let me say I’ve thought about attempting to influence reality by dropping some ridiculous stats on J-Hey’s player projections, but it looks like someone already tried it. I looked at projection leaders yesterday and thought, “Hmm, Jason right behind Pujols in value… I like it.

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CircleChange11
15 years ago

Fans over-rate …

[1] Players on their favorite team.
[2] Prospects.

1
Heyward
15 years ago

What is CarAvg?

1
Ricky
15 years ago

“Clearly the result of the overwhelming mid-market southeast media bias.”

This.

1
Mike
15 years ago

@Heyward: Career Average I believe

0
Heyward
15 years ago
Reply to  Mike

Oh yes. CareerAverage wOBA. I was thinking career batting average and knew that couldn’t be right.

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phoenix2042Member since 2016
15 years ago

what were the projections before?

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Biased Fan
15 years ago
Reply to  phoenix2042

I copied them down as part of some data gathering for my own porpoises (the swimming ones) on the 14th – the day before they were reverted to sanity. The formatting sucks because I copied them straight from excel. Too lazy to fix.

Player (BT) fWAR fFIP
Chipper Jones 4.6 0.389
Jason Heyward 7.8 0.426
Alex Gonzolez 3.8 0.339
Brian McCann 6.0 0.383
Dan Uggla 4.9 0.382
Martin Prado 4.3 0.371
Freddie Freeman 3.3 0.368
Nate McClouth 3.9 0.380

Player (SP) fWAR fFIP
Tim Hudson 5.0 3.51
Derek Lowe 4.9 3.43
Tommy Hanson 7.7 2.63
Jiar Jurjjens 4.4 3.46
Mike Minor- 3.9 3.24

Player (RP) fWAR fFIP
Jonny Venters 1.5 3.03
Craig Kimbrell 2.0 2.68
Eric O’Flaherty_ 1.0 3.50

0