FanGraphs 2014 Crowd Predictions: National League

On Friday, managing editor Dave Cameron published the various (and probably wrong) FanGraphs staff predictions for the American League and National League — shortly after which the present author provided the readership their own opportunity to make embarrassing predictions.

Below are the results of that same exercise for the National League. The results for the American League, published earlier this afternoon, are available here. Note that, owing to rounding error, percentages might add up to slightly more or less than 100%.

Division Winners

West: L.A. (89%), San Fran. (6%), Arizona (3%), San Diego (2%), Colorado (1%)
Central: St. Louis (87%), Pitt. (8%), Cinn. (5%), Milwaukee (1%), Chicago (0%)
East: Washington (82%), Atlanta (17%), Miami (1%), Phil. (1%), New York (0%)

As Cameron noted on Friday, there was near-total consensus with regard to the staff’s divisional picks. This is also largely the case with the crowd’s divisional selections. Moreover, just as Atlanta was the only club besides the triumvirate of Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Washington to receive as many as three of the staff’s 31 votes, so Atlanta is the only club here to appear on more than 10% of the crowd’s ballots.

Wild Card Winners (Top Five)

Note: Consensus division winners are excluded, and the non-consensus winners have had their division title selections added to their Wild Card selections, so for the teams listed below, their placement is based upon their combined number of total predicted playoff appearances, either through WC or Divisional victory.

Atlanta (47% WC, 17% DIV)
Pittsburgh (42% WC, 8% DIV)
San Francisco (26% WC, 6% DIV)
Cincinnati (23% WC, 5% DIV)
Arizona (11% WC, 3% DIV)

Predicted Playoff Appearances by Overall Percentage

Los Angeles: 97%
Washington: 96%
St. Louis: 96%
Atlanta: 63%
Pittsburgh: 50%
San Francisco: 32%
Cincinnati: 28%
Arizona: 13%
San Diego: 8%
Milwaukee: 6%
Colorado: 6%
Philadelphia: 1%
Miami: 1%
Chicago: 1%
New York: 1%

Once again, three clubs appear to be regarded as virtual certainties to qualify for the postseason. Both the staff and the crowd view the fourth and final playoff berth as considerably more open.

MVP (Top Five)

1. Bryce Harper: 21%
2. Andrew McCutchen: 15%
3. Paul Goldschmidt: 10%
4. Hanley Ramirez: 8%
5. Joey Votto: 7%

Among the staff, no single NL field player received a vote on more than five of the 31 ballots cast. There are similar questions among the crowd with regard to the likely best player in the National League. Of note: despite finishing among the staff’s top five and also receiving entirely favorable projections, San Francisco catcher Buster Posey was omitted from the crowd’s own top five.

Cy Young (Top Five)

1. Clayton Kershaw: 46%
2. Stephen Strasburg: 14%
3. Jose Fernandez: 9%
4. Adam Wainwright: 9%
5. Madison Bumgarner: 7%

Owing to how he also received a number of MVP votes, it’s not surprising to find Clayton Kershaw’s name atop this list. More surprising was the support for Turd Sandwich, a pitcher of whom the author was previously unaware.

Rookie of the Year (Top Five)

1. Billy Hamilton: 19%
2. Gregory Polanco: 14%
3. Archie Bradley: 10%
4. Kolten Wong: 10%
5. Javier Baez: 9%

The author would like to extend a debt of gratitude to the reader who felt that my mother was the favorite for Rookie of the Year honors this season. My mother, likewise, sends along her regards.