FanGraphs 2021 Opening Day Chat Part II: Even More Chat!
| 10:03 |
: FanGraph After Dark in full effect! Good evening everyone!
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| 10:03 |
: I am very excited to watch Lucas Giolito face this Angels lineup.
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| 10:03 |
: You should be excited to see him face any lineup, no?
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| 10:03 |
: Howdy from Phoenix Muni. I’m here to see Chase Silseth and will also be popping in and out of here.
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| 10:04 |
: This gap in live games seems like an oversite by MLB on opening day. Couple this with the fact that I couldn’t stream my team from the office and It kinda feels like MLB just can’t get out of it’s own way getting it’s product to the people. I know this is a broken record at this point by man, for a day we are all hyped for, the flaw is just so obvious.
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| 10:04 |
: I mean, hard to blame MLB for the Nats’ COVID issues.
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| 10:05 |
: Opening Day overreaction: Dodgers /Yankees hitting .120 with RISP
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| 10:05 |
: Hey from SF; had a quick bit of dog training to do but I’m back.
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| 10:05 |
: Opening day overreaction: Every reaction
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| 10:05 |
: exclusive chat news: Jo Adell took Corbin Martin deep in an Alt Site game a few minutes ago.
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| 10:06 |
: No EV and launch angle?
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| 10:06 |
: Hello Kevin, Ben, and Eric!
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| 10:06 |
: no idea
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| 10:06 |
: Hello Dodger fan, thanks for joining us.
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| 10:07 |
: Youre telling me I shouldn’t preorder a Julian Merryweather replica Rolaids Relief Award?
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| 10:07 |
: The reason you shouldn’t do that is unrelated to small samples
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| 10:07 |
: My god did Merryweather look absolutely nasty today.
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| 10:07 |
: Hey Eric, I’m in Tallahassee. Any area prospects I should be looking to watch (aside from FSU games)?
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| 10:07 |
: Sounds like you should have been in to see Jackson Baumeister tonight.
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| 10:07 |
: Some hard feelings, Kevin! 🙂
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| 10:07 |
: I understand. I don’t take it personally.
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| 10:07 |
: What games are you watching, Kevin and Eric?
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| 10:08 |
: Or, will you be watching, I suppose
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| 10:08 |
: I turned on the Angels/Sox game and the first thing I heard was Dexter Fowler’s career fielding percentage in right
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| 10:08 |
: i’m watching mostly ASU/UofA
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| 10:08 |
: and I have the A’s/Astros on my laptop
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| 10:09 |
: I have Angels/Sox on ipad, Astros/A’s on second screen.
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| 10:10 |
: I can switch to Ms so one of us is watching that.
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| 10:10 |
: Have teams and scouts recognized the recent increase in prep talent in Wisconsin (e.g. Jarred Kelenic, Gavin Lux, Danny Jansen, etc.)? Hitters Baseball in the greater Milwaukee area has been the top prospect producer in the state for years, but Greg Reinhard Academy (former pro player) in the greater Madison area seems to be doing well too.
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| 10:10 |
: Yeah they have that little indoor facility along the highway that just gets all the guys. Max Alba, too.
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| 10:10 |
: I can distinctly hear trash can bang sounds in the Oakland crowd.
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| 10:10 |
: Adam Eaton is really batting second in that lineup…
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| 10:10 |
: Yeah, there’s video of the intros in Oakland and it was a small, but rowdy crowd.
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| 10:11 |
: Eaton sure seems to bat second on a lot of teams
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| 10:11 |
: The Cardinals scouting director is here to see SIlseth/Holgate, etc.
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| 10:12 |
: I’m excited for Taylor Trammell getting to hit fifth. I don’t know if it’s going to work for him, but I’m rooting for it to work
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| 10:12 |
: I really like Trammel as a person, seems to be great, and I love his tools, but I can’t get past the Ks and lack of minor league performance to buy into the hype.
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| 10:14 |
: Speaking of the M’s, Marco Gonzalez, mister control, with a 5 pitch walk to the first guy he faces. He struggled in his last 2 spring starts, too.
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| 10:15 |
: And then he perfectly elevated a FB for a K….
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| 10:15 |
: Super interested in seeing another full season from Moncada and how that whole BABIP thing he had going on settles in
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| 10:15 |
: Kumar Rocker update: 6 4 0 0 1 8 on 89 pitches against a struggling LSU squad.
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| 10:16 |
: I am too; I’m not worried about the downtick in contact quality last year b/c he was dealing with COVID, but I do want to see him get back to attacking earlier in the count
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| 10:16 |
: @Ben, how’s Ruby?
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| 10:17 |
: If Correa can make it through a full season (~150gms), what does his FA contract look like? 10/$250m too high?
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| 10:17 |
: It’s tough to see him getting 150 games with his track record, but if he does, and he’s good, he’s getting more than 250….
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| 10:17 |
: She is doing great. I was a little late b/c we are working on leaving her alone in the apartment (she has separation anxiety unfortunately), and she was here 50 minutes without so much as a peep
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| 10:17 |
: Giants twelfth consecutive season opening up on the road wow.
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| 10:17 |
: KG- Have a Greinke story to add to the legend?
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| 10:17 |
: I’ve never spoken to him.
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| 10:18 |
: Greinke is totally into scouting and loves seeing draft guys and in a normal world I would have had a chance to maybe go to a game in Florida with him, but 2020 wasn’t that normal world unfortunately.
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| 10:18 |
: Albert Pujols has batted 6th 18 times more often than 2nd in his career
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| 10:18 |
: 5-4-3 DP! Kevin, are you saying I can’t conclude he sucks after the first at bat??! He’s a bum!! oh wait, Marco for Cy Young!
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| 10:18 |
: That’s the Opening Day reaction spirit!
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| 10:18 |
: Wow Dusty Baker’s mask
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| 10:19 |
: Dusty’s mask game is always strong.
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| 10:19 |
: Exacly 8 PA in the 2 spot, which feels weird
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| 10:19 |
: Give me these elevated changes from Giolito.
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| 10:19 |
: Yeah they’re so fun
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| 10:19 |
: Dusty once also called me a “cool motherf***er” and I have that forever.
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| 10:19 |
: Will David Fletcher run a 100% strikeout rate this year? Stay tuned
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| 10:20 |
: Ethan Long single plates ASU’s first run. 3-1 Wildcats. Mishandled throw on the infield allows tying run in scoring position, nobody out here yet.
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| 10:20 |
: Nice play by Longo and Belt on a tough 5-3 play.
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| 10:20 |
: Any thoughts on the Fletcher extension?
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| 10:21 |
: Dan is writing it up, I love David Fletcher so much that I can’t be impartial
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| 10:21 |
: Speaking of Rocker – \ Leiter/Rocker best 1-2 college combo since Bauer/Cole?
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| 10:21 |
: Gotta be….am I missing someone(s), Eric?
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| 10:21 |
: I don’t think so
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| 10:21 |
: Ty France is up: KG breakout pick.
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| 10:21 |
: nobody came to mind right away, certainly no better tandem.
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| 10:21 |
: 6% walk rate KG, that doesn’t scare you?
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| 10:22 |
: xStats from ’19 are insane tho
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| 10:22 |
: He can HIT
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| 10:22 |
: I was just going to ask about your opinion of France. Seems like a huge bat, even if the defense is a work in progress.
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| 10:22 |
: It’s a bat.
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| 10:23 |
: If you guys have a spare 3.5 hours, I think KG and I spent maybe 1.5 minutes of his podcast talking about him
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| 10:23 |
: Hancock and Wilcox were good too but not *this* good. Silseth balked in a run, 3-2.
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| 10:23 |
: When I was trying to play Cistulli and come up with a Fringe 5, every single sort I did was putting France at the top
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| 10:24 |
: Thanks for the set up Ben! If you missed it, Ben and I previewed the 2021 season on my podcast that came out today. We talked about every team, so we talked for almost three and a half hours. Listen here! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chin-music-episode-7-he-had-that-haircut-i…
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| 10:24 |
: Radio said Giolito and Bundy both from Harvard Westlake HS wow
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| 10:24 |
: Flaherty too.
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| 10:24 |
: Fried
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| 10:24 |
: #RichKidSchool
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| 10:24 |
: Bundy is from OK
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| 10:25 |
: Giolito/Fried/Flaherty
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| 10:25 |
: TROUT… oh wait foul ball. I’m not in fly ball judging shape obviously.
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| 10:25 |
: Bundy was part of the Oklahomas HS 1-2 punch with Archie Bradley.
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| 10:25 |
: He absolutely obliterated that ball; I also was not in fly ball judging shape
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| 10:26 |
: little Sam Ferri single and we’re tied at 3
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| 10:26 |
: Trout EV on the foul ball: 112
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| 10:27 |
: Longo oppo! Giants lead 1-0.
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| 10:27 |
: Giolito shortened up his arm atroke
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| 10:27 |
: Even shorter? I hadn’t noticed
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| 10:27 |
: He’s already cut it down significantly
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| 10:28 |
: 101/25/358 on the Longo HR
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| 10:28 |
: Belt just missed back to back.
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| 10:28 |
: Soon he’ll be pitching like a t-rex
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| 10:29 |
: The old no-load pitch
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| 10:29 |
: Typo – he had shortened up his arm stroke, and it is pretty clear visually, but from a mechanical perspective, how has it helped him?
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| 10:29 |
: What are the odds Stanton, Y. Alvarez, or F. Reyes play the field this year? Because I may or may not have drafted 5 DHs…
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| 10:29 |
: I mean if you just need one game, you should feel pretty good. If you need more . . . .
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| 10:29 |
: Oh, yeah, I got you. If you want to hear Eric talk about this for hours, it’s one of my favorite things to ask him about
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| 10:30 |
: Question: Does everyone see the same MLB.tv commercials? or are they region specific? I saw a lot of anti pharmaceutical price control commercials and now i’m wondering if baseball fans are the target demographic for that.
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| 10:30 |
: Presidente Golden Light
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| 10:31 |
: What is TLR doing with this lineup? Have already discussed this?
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| 10:31 |
: Does it really matter?
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| 10:31 |
: Hi folks, Jake Mailhot has joined the chat. In time to see Buster Posey launch a rocket into the stands
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| 10:32 |
: Welcome back Buster Posey! Pull job on a 2-0 meatball, and Giants are up 2-0. Cut job that was middle instead of up.
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| 10:32 |
: Velo on that Robert double?
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| 10:32 |
: 111/15
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| 10:33 |
: Steve Stone barely got finished describing why stealing third was a bad idea with two outs (and I think he was right) before he came home on a wild pitch
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| 10:33 |
: Dang, lost his chain though
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| 10:33 |
: 107/26/367 on the Posey HR
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| 10:35 |
: Can we get definitive confirmation on the pronunciation of Luis Robert’s last name? Is it Ro-Bert or Row-Bear?
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| 10:35 |
: Robert.
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| 10:35 |
: I am now receiving loanDepot ads on mlb.tv. It’s nice to put a face to the name of Marlins Park.
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| 10:35 |
: That’s Marlins park to you, buddy
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| 10:35 |
: I was told different things by Robert’s uncle and the White Sox (shrug) can’t remember which each of them said. He’s LouBob to me.
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| 10:36 |
: Bucs still haven’t lost, Ke Hayes locks in ROY. I’ve got the fever, and its Opening Day!
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| 10:36 |
: We need a LouBob BobSteve faceoff this year
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| 10:36 |
: Enjoy it while you can Sweet Lou!
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| 10:36 |
: Or a LouBob DickMountain matchup.
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| 10:36 |
:
Pronunciation of @whitesox OF Luis Robert:
loo-EES RAH-burt First name is like Sojo and Gonzalez Last name is like Duvall and Frost |
| 10:37 |
: Kevin Gausman looks REALLY good thru two.
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| 10:37 |
: Would be great to get Eric’s thoughts on Giolito’s mechanics
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| 10:37 |
: Lol, the ASU baseball trackman laptop kids are literally talking about how short his stroke is now.
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| 10:40 |
: 2 year olds are horrible human beings. Source: my 2 year old was supposed to be asleep over 2.5 hours ago and instead spent the time repeatedly kicking me in the head until I got fed up and left his room. Now he’s opening his door before running back and jumping in his bed. All of which is preventing me from watching baseball in peace for the first time in months
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| 10:40 |
: Foolish humans
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| 10:40 |
: Having kids, and such
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| 10:41 |
: Was Giolito not working out with the Nats the Nats fault? or something that he would have figured out in DC anyways? I remember sitting in the cold rain to see his debut and then after that I try to forget his Nats tenure.
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| 10:41 |
: I think it’s easy cause-effect thinking to blame a team in situations like this, but sometimes it takes a while and sometimes players change, at times dramatically….
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| 10:41 |
: Good lord, Matt Chapman is a really good 3B.
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| 10:42 |
: Short hop, spin and throw vs. an 80 runner in Straw.
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| 10:42 |
: Was curious of Pujols stats in the 2 spot compared to 6th.
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| 10:43 |
: Well, he’s hitting .125/.125/.125 in the 2 spot
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| 10:43 |
: …. in 8 pa
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| 10:43 |
: It’s kind of remarkable how rarely he’s hit there
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| 10:44 |
: I guess TLR has always been a bat-control-dude-second manager
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| 10:44 |
: I fear people have spent so much time bitching about Pujols’ last few years that they’ve forgotten about how amazing he was.
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| 10:44 |
: …. as he has shown with Eaton tonight
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| 10:44 |
: People should try being Cardinals fans
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| 10:44 |
: It’s easy for us to remember the greatness
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| 10:44 |
: Highly recommend it
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| 10:45 |
: Favorite Cardinal?
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| 10:45 |
: Ozzie
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| 10:45 |
: I’m going Willie McGee
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| 10:45 |
: JD Drew
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| 10:45 |
: My favorite Cardinal is Jim Edmonds
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| 10:45 |
: (just kidding)
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| 10:45 |
: Eric . . . .
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| 10:45 |
: Rick Ankiel!
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| 10:45 |
: I’m a lefty and I used to watch along to my Ozzie That’s a Winner tape (vcr’ed on a trip to my uncle’s house in St. Louis) 20 times a day
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| 10:46 |
: Placido Polanco
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| 10:46 |
: I’m actually into Edmonds as well; of the post-Ozzie era, he’s my favorite I think
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| 10:46 |
: Ah I guess Furcal was a Cardinal for a little bit. 80 arm
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| 10:46 |
: 80 wheels for a bit
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| 10:46 |
: Did you hate Rolen, Eric?
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| 10:46 |
: no
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| 10:47 |
: Here’s the Giolito arm action change: Eric Longenhagen on Twitter: “I’m posting this here for chat. You maybe wanna come chat here: https://t.co/JswbVMCO33 https://t.co/oKVopvNqef” / Twitter
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| 10:48 |
: this is also a useful visual 
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| 10:47 |
: Feel like he was pretty disliked in Philly
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| 10:47 |
: The loud, Italian know-nothing radio guys needed something to talk about so it was ROlen being selfish and Abreu being lackadasical
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| 10:48 |
: equal opportunity haters
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| 10:48 |
: “Imagine your arm walking up a spiral staircase”
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| 10:49 |
: Anyone want a Rafael Furcal story?
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| 10:49 |
: yah
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| 10:49 |
: Yes on Raffy Furc
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| 10:50 |
: So the Astros complex in the DR is on land owned by Rafael Furcal. So every month, the Astros write a check to Rafael Furcal for the land lease. Royals too, right next to Astros complex. I guess he owns a ton of land in the DR.
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| 10:50 |
: If Correa leaves in FA, do you think Bregman can be avg or better at SS?
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| 10:50 |
: No, more of a 40-45 SS.
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| 10:51 |
: Elvis Andrus just took a 2-1 ball and started trotting to first . . . whoops.
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| 10:51 |
: One of my favorite baseball memories is watching Albert Pujols absolutely annihilate that pitch from Brad Lidge in the 2005 playoffs
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| 10:51 |
: Gausman CRUISING
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| 10:51 |
: I joined late. Have we already covered Giolito’s change to Trout?
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| 10:51 |
: Yes, it was preposterous
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| 10:52 |
: Eric, as one of the brightest minds on hawk hill, I had a important question for you.. When will the Phillies make the playoffs again?
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| 10:52 |
: Put your palm pilot in your fanny pack and gtfo.
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| 10:52 |
: I know this is one of maybe three people^
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| 10:52 |
: people at my college did not like the profs who did the capstone courses
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| 10:53 |
: BREAKING: The 2021 MLB Draft will be 20 rounds. This was expected.
MLB has informed MLB’s teams that the 2021 draft will be limited to 20 rounds.
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| 10:53 |
: Steve Stone breaking out a description of how BABIP can let you know whether someone is due for regression
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| 10:53 |
: The White Sox broadcast is just great
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| 10:53 |
: And Benetti trolled him afterwards, too
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| 10:53 |
: Does KG ever sleep?
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| 10:53 |
: I’m a late nite person out of habit.
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| 10:54 |
: If anyone ever builds a time machine I’m using it to take statcast equipment back to that game because I want to know how hard he hit that ball
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| 10:54 |
: My favorite part of that is a story I read in Sports Illustrated (those were the days). Something made a clanking sound on the Astros flight back to StL that night
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| 10:54 |
: And one of the players told Lidge it was Pujols’s ball coming down
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| 10:54 |
: Is the 20-round draft going to be the new norm with the contracted minor league systems?
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| 10:54 |
: I would bet with next CBA it will be 20-30.
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| 10:55 |
: More impressive: striking out Ohtani and Trout to start a game or striking Astudillo and Arraez in extras?
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| 10:55 |
: He struck Fletcher out too!!!
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| 10:55 |
: That was as unhittable as I’ve ever seen Hader, and he often looks unhittable.
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| 10:56 |
: It was one game, but I keep feeling better about my +Kolten Wong -Keston Hiura take
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| 10:56 |
: Brewers game was a ton of fun
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| 10:56 |
: Wait. I logged on during my lunch break (west coast) and saw KG chatting. Now I’m logging on after dinner. Still KG in the mix? (btw. a new Chin Music listener — good stuff)
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| 10:57 |
: It’s Opening Day what the hell else am I going to do? You realize I love baseball, right? Also, thanks for listening!
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| 10:57 |
: Jeez Giolito is rolling
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| 10:57 |
: Who sleeps less? Kevin Goldstein or Ben Lindbergh?
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| 10:57 |
: I sleep! Just more of a 1-9/2-10 type of person.
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| 10:57 |
: It’s probably confirmation bias, but the inclusion of the strike zone outline on every broadcast now makes me feel even more that home-plate umpires need to go sooner than later (re: Stassi strikeout)
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| 10:58 |
: The zone isn’t always right, which is annoying
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| 10:58 |
: Hader was up a few ticks too, right?
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| 10:58 |
: Touched 100.
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| 10:59 |
: KG, how optimistic are you that the new CBA will get done without any games being missed?
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| 10:59 |
: 50/50.
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| 11:00 |
: How confident would you have to be that Hader would be a stud starter to try to convert him?
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| 11:00 |
: THere’s no level at this point, right?
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| 11:01 |
: NO POINT. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. See Bard, Daniel.
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| 11:01 |
: YOAN MONCADA BABIP GOD
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| 11:01 |
: I can’t figure out how to pirate the WhiteSox-Angels game right now…how has Giolito looked? It seems like he’s hanging a lot of changeups.
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| 11:02 |
: Nah he looks amazing
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| 11:02 |
: Batters can’t see the ball at all, they’re taking the wrong ones and swinging at the wrong ones
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| 11:03 |
: Marco walked a second batter. He’s almost at last year’s total
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| 11:03 |
: Lefty-masher Wilmer Flores doubles into the corner and the Giants are up 3-0 and threatening for more. Marco just doesn’t have an in-zone weapon.
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| 11:04 |
: He thrives on the edges and his command just hasn’t been there today
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| 11:04 |
: I understand that most righties’ platoon splits are mostly sample size and you shouldn’t read too much into them
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| 11:04 |
: Any chance Kikuchi breaks out in 2021?
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| 11:04 |
: I also believe wholeheartedly that Wilmer Flores is one of the best hitters in baseball vL
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| 11:04 |
: Kikuchi is my favorite breakout pick
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| 11:05 |
: The velocity is real and the new cutter he debuted last year is nasty
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| 11:05 |
: Astros have something going Top 4 in OAK. Altuve walk and Brantley double to make it 2nd and 3rd to start the frame.
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| 11:05 |
: Is this the worst starter opening day ERA ever? It certainly feels like it. Not a lot of good showings today, some horrendous
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| 11:05 |
: This is not a question for me, because I’m on my second beer of the night
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| 11:05 |
: But it definitely feels that way
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| 11:05 |
: and everyone looked bad, too
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| 11:06 |
: It’s not like there were a bunch of hard luck seeing eye singles
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| 11:06 |
: Bregman RBI groundout, 1-0 HOU
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| 11:06 |
: Mariners broadcast showing wRC+ on the overlay with a short explanation
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| 11:06 |
: That’s new
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| 11:07 |
: ESPN showed OPS+ as a default today
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| 11:07 |
: That’s really cool
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| 11:07 |
: I can recommend the Ben Clemens / Kevin Goldstein conversation on Chin Music re: Kicuchi’s velo vs. control and how it may impact his breakout (this is not a fangraphs bot account)
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| 11:07 |
: Donta Williams just spanked one deep to right field here w/ 2 outs, runner on 2B. Twisting catch in RF ends the inning. Devils 5 Wildcats 4 Middle 6th
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| 11:08 |
: Second? teetotaler
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| 11:08 |
: I’m about to freshen a cocktail, myself….
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| 11:08 |
: Best starting pitcher performance today Glasnow yes?
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| 11:08 |
: Seems that way, no?
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| 11:08 |
: Yes, and please ignore the Chin Music section about the Rays
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| 11:09 |
: We were insanely complimentary of Glasnow, you’ll just have to trust me
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| 11:09 |
: Anyone see that video of Glasnow talking about how he holds his fastball because he had carpel tunnel in high school? Pretty cool
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| 11:09 |
: also 80 hair
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| 11:09 |
: Alcantara looked good too, though
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| 11:09 |
: Great catch by Chad Pinder on a drive by Tucker, saves a run….
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| 11:09 |
: How many swinging strikes do you think is David Fletcher’s one-game max
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| 11:10 |
: Gonna go look this up really quickly
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| 11:10 |
: Correa plunked, Oakland crowd going nuts
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| 11:11 |
: Really love the small rivalry the A’s and Astros have developed over the last few years. They really don’t like each other.
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| 11:12 |
: They really don’t.
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| 11:12 |
: Fletcher had 5 swinging strikes against the immortal trio of Darwinzon Hernandez, Ryan Brasier, and Brandon Workman in 2019
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| 11:12 |
: Giolito v. Trout for you channel flippers….
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| 11:12 |
: If we assume there are 25 X 30 MLB players, and 80 means 3 SDs above the mean, that means we have 11 guys with 80 hair. We’ve got Glasnow on the list. Who are the other 10?
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| 11:12 |
: Put Rendon on there, I’d say
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| 11:12 |
: Tatis
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| 11:13 |
: I haven’t always loved the curls, but they’re great at the moment
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| 11:13 |
: Harrison Bader?
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| 11:13 |
: Ben Gamel
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| 11:13 |
: Trout isn’t getting a heater in the zone this whole AB after the 96 he pulled foul his first AB
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| 11:13 |
: This is fun. Can we do this every day? Lol
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| 11:13 |
: Every day? No. We got content to create. Do it more? Absolutely.
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| 11:13 |
: Trout walks.
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| 11:14 |
: We did some watchalongs last year, we’ll probably do some again
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| 11:14 |
: Brandon Crawford has 80-grade hair.
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| 11:14 |
: on twitch
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| 11:14 |
: Crawford is too wet to be 80 grade
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| 11:14 |
: I’m giving Crawford like a 35
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| 11:14 |
: The wetness is off-putting
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| 11:14 |
: Corey Seager for the 80 hair.
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| 11:15 |
: Corey Seager’s brother breaks up Gausman’s perfect night
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| 11:15 |
: Gregory Soto’s hair today?
|
| 11:15 |
: OUTSTANDING. Unlike his performance.
|
| 11:15 |
: With the way Giolitto (tonight) and others (Devin Williams comes to mind) can change the shape of their change ups pitch to pitch, is there really any use to categorizing them as the same pitch when one breaks 2 inches glove side and the next 5 inches arm side? Do you as a scout categoize them separately?
|
| 11:15 |
: This is an old question that I went back up to
|
| 11:15 |
: B/c I forgot to answer it
|
| 11:15 |
: Yeah it’s tricky
|
| 11:16 |
: check this out
|
| 11:16 |
:
@tangotiger Here’s another, Lucas Giolito. One clue is the SSW (red), which seems to spread out in two opposite directions, one leading to armside shift, other leading to upward shift. There are probably others who also do this. It’s not so hard to find them with graphs like these.
 |
| 11:16 |
: KG, any specific insights on the A’s-Stros rivalry?
|
| 11:16 |
: Nothing you don’t know. Frequent battles in the standings. Tough road series for both teams. The Laureano/Cintron stuff, etc.
|
| 11:16 |
: the green dots are the location of the pitches. the blue dots are the magnus movement, red dots SSW movement
|
| 11:17 |
: the blue and red components add to the green
|
| 11:17 |
: Alan Nathan is a great Twitter follow, incidentally
|
| 11:17 |
: And Lucas Giolito is a witch, as you can clearly see from the graph
|
| 11:18 |
: Giolito has gotten a little loose command wise. Two walks. Ramped up a couple pitches here and there.
|
| 11:18 |
: Ben, thanks for answering, but I asked that when I was two beers in and now I have no idea what you’re talking about.
|
| 11:18 |
: In good company
|
| 11:18 |
: Not sure what is more incredible – that Giolito can do that, or guys can hit him
|
| 11:18 |
: Right? Major league hitters are so good
|
| 11:19 |
: Except for Austin Hedges /s
|
| 11:19 |
: I’ve written a lot of articles about Jeff Mathis and Austin Hedges
|
| 11:19 |
: Thank god for them
|
| 11:19 |
: 80 hair: Yuli, Harper, Galvis, Keynan Middleton, Dustin May (sorry, Parks), Glasnow, Bichette, Tatis…idk that’s a good list
|
| 11:20 |
: Yuli?? I dunno man
|
| 11:20 |
: Players I still like, despite the fact that I shouldn’t: 1. Austin Hedges.
|
| 11:20 |
: Middleton’s dreads having the Mariners blue and green in there is super sick
|
| 11:20 |
: Yuli is 80 hair.
|
| 11:20 |
: Why are you guys ignoring my Sean Manaea hair comment
|
| 11:20 |
: Giolito has become mortal.
|
| 11:20 |
: If May is an 80 so is Synnderggard.
|
| 11:20 |
: Hard disagree
|
| 11:20 |
: also strong
|
| 11:21 |
: Syndergaard’s doesn’t work as well as May’s
|
| 11:21 |
: I think May’s whole Waluigi vibe makes the hair better
|
| 11:21 |
: oh crap, I thought Pujols got that.
|
| 11:21 |
: deGrom did a good job switching from long to short, while we’re on long hair
|
| 11:22 |
: Jeff Mathis had shockingly good statcast numbers last year. .393 wOBACON
|
| 11:22 |
: Self promotion time?
|
| 11:22 |
: Self promotion time
|
| 11:22 |
: #ItsAlwaysSelfPromotionTime
|
| 11:22 |
: deGrom is so much better looking with short hair
|
| 11:23 |
: Mookie Betts and Jeff Mathis had (a very few) similar batted ball metrics last year
|
| 11:23 |
: All these hair styles are but pale attempts to eclipse vintage Mariners Randy Johnson
|
| 11:23 |
: Oscar Gamble is the GOAT
|
| 11:23 |
: deGrom also throws harder with shorter hair. Analysis!
|
| 11:23 |
: Can we take a minute to admire NOBs that have to curve around the jersey to fit in? Yaz’s jersey giving me Saltalamacchia vibes.
|
| 11:23 |
: I met a bunch of the people at Majestic who used to put those on there before Nike took over. Lotta nice older ladies.
|
| 11:24 |
: STRANGE-GORDON looks good on a jersey
|
| 11:24 |
: Ball’s not dead
|
| 11:24 |
: Yeah it was really flying today, I thought.
|
| 11:24 |
: Crow-Armstrong
|
| 11:24 |
: ROGERS-CROMARTIE
|
| 11:24 |
: I dunno, maybe he played in high school and his high school had … yeah okay fine
|
| 11:25 |
: Us there any new analysis on if the Statcast proprietary metrics are any good? I recall upon them being created they weren’t any better than regular old wOBA but people used them anyway
|
| 11:25 |
: If you mean xwOBA and that kinda thing, they’re more descriptive than predictive
|
| 11:25 |
: First and third for Arizona’s Daniel Susac of the many catching Susacs. 0 out, still 5-4 Sun Devils here
|
| 11:25 |
: Martin Maldonado spends more time on his hair than anyone in the league only to be disrespected in this chat
|
| 11:25 |
: I guarantee you I am Martin Maldonado’s biggest fan.
|
| 11:26 |
: I hate that I’m about to say this but Bryce Harper has pretty solid hair
|
| 11:26 |
: a pretty blockable wild pitch scores the runner from third, tied at 5
|
| 11:26 |
: Harper is the David Lee Roth of baseball
|
| 11:26 |
: OH YEAH
|
| 11:26 |
: The Angels have a low-key great defensive infield
|
| 11:26 |
: if you only had one predictive metric (and couldn’t see anything else about a player’s profile other than hair), it would be…
|
| 11:26 |
: Barrel rate? It’s kinda cheating, it tells you a few things
|
| 11:27 |
: Slater hit a ball with a 99 mph exit velo and a 29 degree angle 346 feet for a homer. So much for a dejuiced ball
|
| 11:27 |
: Ball is flying period in SEA tonight.
|
| 11:27 |
: As a member of multiple Brewers Blog communities, I can guarantee you, KG, you are not Martin Maldonado’s biggest fan.
|
| 11:27 |
: I’ll take the bet.
|
| 11:28 |
: You’d rather have barrel% than xwoba which accounts for that as well as K% and BB%? It’s not perfect predictively but it’s sure better than barrel%
|
| 11:28 |
: Susac hit a really hard grounder to short, throw forced the 1B off the bag, ball came loose when he tried to apply tag. first and third 0 out again for Arizona’s best hitter draft prospect for this year, Ryan Holgate.
|
| 11:28 |
: Muuuuuuch rather have barrel rate
|
| 11:28 |
: not even close
|
| 11:28 |
: Pinder with another run-saving catch.
|
| 11:29 |
: like, it does a good job of saying what a hitter *should* have done
|
| 11:29 |
: but if you hit a bunch of flares to shallow OF
|
| 11:29 |
: well, those have like a 1.000 xBA
|
| 11:29 |
: But they’re not particularly replicable
|
| 11:29 |
: Adam Eaton top 2-hole hitter
|
| 11:29 |
: I’d rather have the underlying data that goes into barrel rate
|
| 11:29 |
: Hah.
|
| 11:30 |
: I mean haha okay sure
|
| 11:30 |
: As and 80s child I’m old enough to know who David Lee Roth is and that he was part of Van Halen but not old enough to understand if that is a good or a bad thing
|
| 11:30 |
: And now, the best song ABOUT Van Halen ever:
|
| 11:30 |
: I’ve really missed watching a grounder up the middle turn into a base hit
|
| 11:30 |
: Embrace change.
|
| 11:31 |
: Interesting (barrel over xwoba). I just got annoyed how they put a predictive name on it and all the sudden everyone used it as a predictive stat. Still do. “He had a .330 xwOBA last year, he is due for a breakout”
|
| 11:31 |
: I think they should have called it dwOBA
|
| 11:31 |
: deserved
|
| 11:33 |
: Former always-somehow-in-Boston man Mitch Moreland now batting
|
| 11:33 |
: Gonna be weird turning on a Sox game and not seeing him
|
| 11:34 |
: If you’re still interested in my rapidly-spiraling xwOBA discussion, here’s a good thread by xwOBA creator Tom Tango on why it isn’t the best predictive metric:
|
| 11:34 |
:
In the thread yesterday, the min 100 batted balls was only in season 1. Adding the condition of at least 100 batted balls in both seasons, the shape remains largely the same, except all the correlations go up.
#Statcast
For each batter-season, I took their 5% hardest hit balls, and correlated the average exit velocity of these batted balls to the next season wOBAcon. Then I took their 10% hardest hit balls. And so on, and so on. Best metric would use batters 40-50% hardest hit balls. |
| 11:34 |
: Cameras in Seattle have best concessions cam, prove me wrong
|
| 11:34 |
: How do you guys think Kiner-Falefa fared today? How do you see him working out at SS? Same with Suarez? Why aren’t more teams, other than the Dodgers/A’s/Rays, doing similar things with superb athletes of moving them around and developing them into playing as many positions as possible?
|
| 11:34 |
: He didn’t deserve the error he was charged
|
| 11:35 |
: Lowe should have had it
|
| 11:35 |
: On the other hand, I’m not a huge fan of having him lead off
|
| 11:35 |
: Couple of balls have been just out of the reach of Sun Devil defenders (including a triple past a diving CF) and all of a sudden U of A has opened this one up, big. 9-to-5
|
| 11:36 |
: As Max Stassi takes Giolito deep to cut the White Sox lead to 3-2, I just want to say that he’s among the nicest dudes I ever dealt with.
|
| 11:36 |
: Mathematically, it’s probably someone in this chat’s birthday. Happy birthday, fellow baseball fan!
|
| 11:37 |
: Barrels are great but BBs and Ks are such a large part of the game (and an increasing part of the game). Flares/burners get overrated predictively, so I can understand if you’re looking at xwoba in a small sample, but over a large enough sample you should be able to differentiate the guys who get lucky with them vs the guys who actually have flare-hitting as a skill
|
| 11:37 |
: Yeah over a sufficeintly large sample, just gimme wOBA
|
| 11:37 |
: at that point, why do you want the x?
|
| 11:37 |
: Greinke at 5 2 0 0 0 4 on 75 pitches. He’s been quite something.
|
| 11:38 |
: I’d like to see a Greinke start this year where he sells out to hit every number on the gun
|
| 11:38 |
: Giants broadcasters arguing maple bats are better than corked bats, quintessential SF broadcast banter that I love
|
| 11:38 |
: That whole maple bat thing during peak Bonds was quite funny
|
| 11:38 |
: As a kid I wanted a maple bat
|
| 11:38 |
: And I wasn’t even playing baseball anymore
|
| 11:41 |
: Speaking about Chin Music… What if the White Sox players let TLR choose their Walk-Up songs for a day? What shall we expect?
|
| 11:41 |
: Nice catch by Elvis Andrus, who is depressingly no longer a Ranger.
|
| 11:42 |
: It’s really weird. And even more weird that he’s in an A’s uniform
|
| 11:42 |
: David Fletcher has struck out again. What the f*** is happening.
|
| 11:42 |
: It’s wild
|
| 11:42 |
: With the contract signed, maybe he’s a power hitter now
|
| 11:42 |
: Money has gone to his head.
|
| 11:42 |
: Well Fletcher refused to swing at 3-1 down the middle so…
|
| 11:43 |
: Well that’s just classic Fletcher
|
| 11:43 |
: Take take take softball swing
|
| 11:44 |
: Fletcher is up to 3 swinging strikes tonight, tied for the second-highest of his career
|
| 11:44 |
: I don’t think he’s topping 5, though
|
| 11:45 |
: two on, one out and Bassit is done in OAK. Petit coming in.
|
| 11:45 |
: Correa booing time
|
| 11:45 |
: Love to see Gausman dominating and Bundy holding his own on opening day. Love to see it. Love it. Love it. I’m loving it. I
|
| 11:45 |
: Bumgarner got touched up again but his velocity was reportedly back up. Interested?
|
| 11:45 |
: Not especially, no.
|
| 11:46 |
: I have to say this for the White Sox: they have a lot of very talented players
|
| 11:46 |
: Leury Garcia doesn’t even start in left in my OOTP team of all 59/100 or lower players
|
| 11:46 |
: Guys, depth matters
|
| 11:47 |
: Watching Bumgarner complain about the umpire after nearly every pitch today = 😃
|
| 11:48 |
: So TLR said that ‘It’s a big loss, but you do hvae to continue to play the season’
|
| 11:48 |
: in regards to Eloy
|
| 11:48 |
: Do they think he’s WAYYYYYYYY better than he is?
|
| 11:48 |
: Like, players get hurt, it’s not THAT weird
|
| 11:49 |
: Well he’s not wrong…they do have to continue playing the season
|
| 11:49 |
: “RIP Eloy” was trending on Twitter and the White Sox had a weird “we play for Eloy” tweet. It’s a bit odd.
|
| 11:49 |
: that jersey in the dugout!
|
| 11:49 |
: he died ben
With us tonight & always.
 |
| 11:50 |
: With us, literally physically, b/c he was doing rehab and stayed at the park afterwards
|
| 11:50 |
: Yeah, that’s weird
|
| 11:51 |
: I think I heard that was an April fools prank on Jimenez. Although that doesn’t make a ton of sense haha
|
| 11:51 |
: Okay I’m happy with this explanation
|
| 11:51 |
: Still a little weird but less so
|
| 11:51 |
: maybe Eloy just really ties the room together
|
| 11:51 |
: Yordan two-run double, 3-0 Astros. He’s still scary.
|
| 11:51 |
: Love it
|
| 11:51 |
: He’s my breakout pick for the year
|
| 11:51 |
: b/c I don’t like picking breakout players, i like picking ones who are already great who people forgot about
|
| 11:52 |
: I wish we had FG chats for games at least once a week. I realize that’s an unreasonable ask for all of you as writers of the terrific content, but this is the most fun I have all year until playoff chats
|
| 11:52 |
: Duly Noted. We should do it more.
|
| 11:52 |
: Probably knew what was coming…
|
| 11:52 |
: Lolllllll
|
| 11:53 |
: Sigh.
|
| 11:53 |
: the strikethrough was very well done
|
| 11:53 |
: I was thinking the Jersey thing was weird. Then I remembered that Braun wore Yelich’s jersey after he got hurt. Literally wore it under his own jersey. Baseball players are weird.
|
| 11:53 |
: Ryan Braun does seem quite weird
|
| 11:53 |
: So many are weird.
|
| 11:53 |
: Speaking of Brewers jerseys…those jerseys today were 80-grade
|
| 11:54 |
: The ball with the wheat seams
|
| 11:54 |
: wonderful
|
| 11:54 |
: Braun wore it because he wanted Yelich’s magic to rub off on him…
|
| 11:54 |
: Restrained myself from a variety of jokes about Braun and controlled substances here
|
| 11:54 |
: You’re welcome, everyone
|
| 11:55 |
: What’s the highest strike percentage you’ve seen a starter throw in 6 innings?
|
| 11:55 |
: I wish I could remember who, because he wasn’t a big draft guy, but there was a college starter who throw 100 strikes in a game last year, like 118 pitches or something.
|
| 11:55 |
: Speaking of break out candidates: Edwin Rios murders baseballs, when he hits them. If he strikes out at anything like his 21% rate last year vs his +35% rate in 2018 and 2019 he is a very scary hitter.
|
| 11:55 |
: KG take from yday: Rios would start at third for double-digit teams
|
| 11:55 |
: Rios would be an every day player for most teams.
|
| 11:55 |
: ta da!
|
| 11:56 |
: TLR in post season bullpening form
|
| 11:56 |
: Back from instructing at the Billy Joel Driving School.
|
| 11:56 |
: This is a really small thing, but when you pull up a game on Gameday now, the name of the tab is ‘Free Live (game)’
|
| 11:56 |
: So I have ‘Free Live White Sox at Angels’ as a tab
|
| 11:56 |
: and like, guys, we don’t need the adjectives
|
| 11:57 |
: Trout another walk – drink
|
| 11:57 |
: I am, coincidentally, opening another beer, an Anderson Valley amber
|
| 11:57 |
: Must be SEO so MLB beats out all the other people searching for free White Sox at angels
|
| 11:57 |
: <3
|
| 11:58 |
: Rendon is great
|
| 11:58 |
: apropos of nothing, I just love watching him hit
|
| 11:58 |
: Is there a player who projects more cool?
|
| 11:58 |
: Since he’s on screen rn, KG, is there an heir apparent to Strom?
|
| 11:59 |
: Bill Murphy is wonderful.
|
| 11:59 |
: Fernando Tatis Jr.
|
| 11:59 |
: Fair
|
| 11:59 |
: Different kind of cool
|
| 11:59 |
: In the Rendon school of cool, I’d put up Brantley.
|
| 12:00 |
: Solid one
|
| 12:00 |
: I really like the laid back hitters
|
| 12:00 |
: Me too.
|
| 12:00 |
: slow the game down.
|
| 12:01 |
: Is Mike Trout a laid back hitter
|
| 12:01 |
: I don’t think so. He looks more like he’s building up power to me
|
| 12:02 |
: Hey hey it’s still Thursday here! Why is the chat trying to manipulate my sense of time?
|
| 12:02 |
: Chat time is EST. Them’s the rules.
|
| 12:02 |
: Favorite current player to watch hit? Mine is Juan Soto and its not even close
|
| 12:02 |
: Soto is a lot of fun
|
| 12:02 |
: I’d put him, Harper, and Rendon on my list
|
| 12:02 |
: Harper’s swing is gorgeous
|
| 12:02 |
: Prime Robby Cano is some of my favorite hitting, not sure if it’s laid back
|
| 12:02 |
: Yes, Laid back. With his mind on his money and his money on his mind.
|
| 12:02 |
: Mine is Cody Bellinger and I am not at all biased.
|
| 12:04 |
: Favorite current payer to watch field a routine ground ball to third. Mine is Kyle Seager and it isn’t even close.
|
| 12:04 |
: This is a much more specific question
|
| 12:05 |
: Chapman, because he makes everything look routine
|
| 12:05 |
: I saw Matt Chapman getting some fungoes hit to him when I showed up early to a Mets game once, and it was awesome
|
| 12:05 |
: Yeah, Chapman, easy.
|
| 12:05 |
: Machado a close second to Chapman
|
| 12:06 |
: Machado has a ‘fine whatever I’ll field this’ vibe that I love
|
| 12:06 |
: Very lucky to have seen Rolen thru Chappy/Machado/Arenado and now Hayes
|
| 12:06 |
: Enoli coming in to pitch the 7th for Houston. It’s upper 90s, it’s a killer slider, and the command will be determined by the roll of a dice.
|
| 12:06 |
: Worst baseball player doing routine thing: Dexter Fowler’s routine catch
|
| 12:06 |
: Terrifies me
|
| 12:06 |
: I wrote about Fowler catching!
|
| 12:06 |
: It’s like he wants you, the viewer, to feel afraid
|
| 12:07 |
: Videos and everything! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dexter-fowler-deal-isnt-really-about-d…
|
| 12:08 |
: I’m watching this video even though I know it will upset me
|
| 12:08 |
: Thanks a lot, KG
|
| 12:08 |
: 2021 = Altuve comeback season?
|
| 12:08 |
: It’s only one game, but he’s looked REALLY good tonight.
|
| 12:08 |
: Upset you. Imagine working for the team he’s on when he’s doing that.
|
| 12:09 |
: Nick Madrigal = Ichiro…who says no?
|
| 12:09 |
: I do
|
| 12:09 |
: I do. Strongly. While laughing maniacally.
|
| 12:09 |
: Why didn’t the white sox challenge that play?
|
| 12:09 |
: Wonderful question
|
| 12:09 |
: Nick Madrigal = Ichiro, who says yes?
|
| 12:09 |
: Neither Ben nor I.
|
| 12:10 |
: Ichiro is probably not a good comp for anyone at all
|
| 12:10 |
: He’s on the no-comp rule.
|
| 12:10 |
: Like, there aren’t a lot of Ichiros
|
| 12:11 |
: I’m pushing Madrigal = Fletcher
|
| 12:11 |
: As my official comp of the year
|
| 12:11 |
: was ichiro really the type of guy that could have hit 30 hrs “if he wanted” or was that just tv analyst gibberish?
|
| 12:11 |
: 30 is a bit much, but he had some real raw.
|
| 12:12 |
: what grade would ichiro’s arm/speed/hit tool’s get?
|
| 12:12 |
: Let’s hear your 1-5 person no-comp rule list.
|
| 12:12 |
: Ichiro, Bo Jackson, Nolan Ryan, Alex Rodriguez, Greg Maddux.
|
| 12:12 |
: I just put this here so KG and Eric would answer it
|
| 12:12 |
: arm 80 run 70+ hit 80 (prime Ichiro)
|
| 12:13 |
: Ichiro’s arm is just so dumb
|
| 12:13 |
: It was excessive
|
| 12:13 |
: No one needs an outfield arm like that
|
| 12:13 |
: I’m just saying: striking out under 10% of the time with a .350+ BABIP seems like a quality Ichiro recipe to me (nvm the defensive aspect)
|
| 12:13 |
: Ichiro hit balls hard. Nick Madrigal does not hit balls hard. It’s a massive difference.
|
| 12:13 |
: Enoli starts off the 7th giving up a double after a dropped foul pop followed by a walk.
|
| 12:14 |
: I actually have Andrelton Simmons on my no-comp list
|
| 12:14 |
: There will be another 80 SS, no?
|
| 12:14 |
: He doesn’t play defense like other great shortstops, though
|
| 12:14 |
: He’s so much more arm and awareness, to me
|
| 12:15 |
: I dunno, maybe I’ve just watched too many Simmons highlights
|
| 12:15 |
: But I think of most 80 shortstops as really acrobatic types, and he’s more of a mobile cannon
|
| 12:16 |
: Heuer is like as far from Giolitos arm action as one can be. It’s impressive the sling hes got going.
|
| 12:16 |
: I’m looking forward to seeing Bummer pitch
|
| 12:16 |
: quite underrated
|
| 12:16 |
: QUITE
|
| 12:16 |
: I think it’s b/c of his name
|
| 12:17 |
: Is Rickey Henderson an honorary mention to the no-comp list, or will he be replicated again
|
| 12:17 |
: No, he will not. Probably my favorite player of all time.
|
| 12:17 |
: I’m not actually advocating for Madrigal being Ichiro, but I think he’s sneaky good because I think there are really elite bat-to-ball skills there in a way that will allow him to be a very successful MLB hitter despite his obvious flaws
|
| 12:17 |
: I mean, he has a chance to be Luis Arraez.
|
| 12:18 |
: way better defender tho
|
| 12:18 |
: Which reliever name is more unfortunate: Aaron Bummer or Grant Balfour?
|
| 12:18 |
: Or Scott Blewett
|
| 12:18 |
: Important to note, that I’m the low guy on Nick Madrigal.
|
| 12:18 |
: Blewett, I guess?
|
| 12:19 |
: I just think he’s a terrific baseball player (excuse my completely non-fangraphs speak) and that counts for something on rare occasions
|
| 12:20 |
: I think he’s only maybe kinda good. Has to hit .315 to have positive value due to the lack of walks and power.
|
| 12:20 |
: I think he’ll be a solid regular
|
| 12:20 |
: But I think a lot of it will be defense
|
| 12:20 |
: Not a bad outcome, but also not a unicorn like Ichiro
|
| 12:20 |
: Madrigal just made the catch in the second deck at the Oak Coliseum. Anybody see that?
|
| 12:20 |
: I’m like 85% sure a guy wearing a black Athletics “Madrigal” jersey just caught a foul ball
|
| 12:21 |
: Anybody see Madrigal make that catch in the second deck just now at Oak Coliseum?
|
| 12:21 |
: I’m willing to say you guys all saw correctly
|
| 12:21 |
: Enoli is wild. first and second, one out in the 7th still and 22 pitches in. Joe Smith, who chose to sit out 2020 is warming.
|
| 12:21 |
: Yikes, not what you want to hear
|
| 12:22 |
: Benetti just dropped an ‘it’s like Wayne’s World’
|
| 12:22 |
: effortless
|
| 12:22 |
: Madrigal reached the big leagues doing exactly what he did in college, despite the doubts that he could continue to do what he has always done against professional pitching, and then did it again against MLB pitching. Call me crazy, but I’m sold on him being a .315 hitter every year
|
| 12:22 |
: He hit .340 last year and somehow still only had a 112 wRC+….
|
| 12:22 |
: He’s the Rendon of announcers
|
| 12:24 |
: Can you imagine blowing a bubble right as you decide to run down the first base line for a walk when you know it was a strike, that is skill baby
|
| 12:24 |
: Good lord Jose Iglesias. What a shortstop.
|
| 12:25 |
: jeeeeeez
|
| 12:25 |
: So Bummer is “quite underrated” so: Williams/Hader or Bummer/Hendricks?
|
| 12:25 |
: Oh, jeez
|
| 12:25 |
: okay my game’s over so I’m gonna split. Thanks for hanging out. Mets list will publish tomorrow!
|
| 12:26 |
: Cya Eric
|
| 12:26 |
: bye Mr. Longenhagen.
|
| 12:26 |
: I think I lean Hader/Williams but I think most people would pick that side without thinking?
|
| 12:26 |
: Paredes finds the zone, whiffs a pair, and it’s HOU 3 OAK 1 after seven.
|
| 12:26 |
: too many ‘think’s in that sentence, sorry
|
| 12:26 |
: I think I lean towards the MIL pair as well.
|
| 12:27 |
: Gausman got 41 strikes on 52 fastballs. His stuff was very good tonight
|
| 12:27 |
: Enoli with the holler. Man he’s fun
|
| 12:27 |
: One of the concerns people had about Gausman was whether his velo bump in 2020 was an artifact of the short season. He averaged 93.6 tonight and ramped it up to 96. The Mariners lineup did him a bunch of favors, but still good to see from him.
|
| 12:27 |
: speaking of quality shortstop play… What’s the answer in Cincy?>
|
| 12:27 |
: Enoli is wonderful. Few humans love baseball more than Enoli.
|
| 12:27 |
: I don’t hate what they’re doing, tbh
|
| 12:27 |
: Cincy?
|
| 12:27 |
: Contingent on screwing up the offseason so badly that you have no shortstop
|
| 12:27 |
: yeah
|
| 12:27 |
: I hate it.
|
| 12:27 |
: Like given the predicament they’ve put themselves in
|
| 12:28 |
: I’d play Suarez there too
|
| 12:28 |
: Now, why’d they put themselves in that pickle? Sincerely no idea
|
| 12:28 |
: How many games into the season before LaRussa rants about the 3 batter minimum in a postgame chat
|
| 12:28 |
: I mean, he’d be right. It’s a dumb as hell rule.
|
| 12:28 |
: But what else are they gonna do?
|
| 12:28 |
: I guess have India play short?
|
| 12:28 |
: It’s a pickle.
|
| 12:29 |
: With Eric leaving, I thought I’d mention: I just finished “Future Value” and it was one of the coolest, most informative, and educational book on baseball I’ve ever read. If you haven’t read it, go get a copy.
|
| 12:29 |
: Just wanted to promote it
|
| 12:29 |
: I’d rather go Moose/Suarez/India than Suarez/Framer/Moose
|
| 12:29 |
: Wonderful book, agreed
|
| 12:30 |
: Senzel played on the left side of the infield right?
|
| 12:31 |
: Yeah, though I don’t know if he’s a passable shortstop
|
| 12:31 |
: Michael Brantley, who has been hitting lasers all night, goes deep.
|
| 12:31 |
: And he’s also their best center fielder
|
| 12:31 |
: Professional hitter, says every announcer in uniso
|
| 12:32 |
: I would say it after every hit in a previous life.
|
| 12:32 |
: 108/19/376 on the Brantley HR
|
| 12:33 |
: Ohtani is huge, every time he steps into the box I’m reminded of that
|
| 12:33 |
: lefty on lefty HR >>> righty on righty HR…I don’t know why I feel that way but I do
|
| 12:33 |
: I completely agree
|
| 12:33 |
: It’s something about the natural lefty motion
|
| 12:34 |
: Alex Bregman follows up Brantley with a HR of his own. Absolute bomb. Stood and watched for a bit as well. specs should be impressive.
|
| 12:34 |
: 106/31/418 for Bregman
|
| 12:34 |
: Remember when Bregman did the bat carry thing, and then Soto did it better immediately?
|
| 12:34 |
: i was just thinking the same thing Ben
|
| 12:34 |
: All too well
|
| 12:34 |
: Lefty swings are just pretty
|
| 12:34 |
: Ichiro doesn’t make an error there.
|
| 12:35 |
: Bregman is a lot of fun, I like the heel role he plays quite a bit
|
| 12:36 |
: Also yeah he’s just awesome
|
| 12:37 |
: I don’t really feel comfortable judging catchers’ blocking skills, but that looked awful by Grandal
|
| 12:37 |
: Bregman is like a youth pastor trying to play the heel
|
| 12:37 |
: Trout doing Trout things and Sox/Angels are tied at 3.
|
| 12:38 |
: I went to the University of Nebraska with Aaron Bummer. I can assure you, he doesn’t like the jokes about his last name.
|
| 12:38 |
: That’s cool, and also I didn’t need to hear that story to know that
|
| 12:38 |
: If your name’s Bummer, you’ve definitely heard it enough
|
| 12:38 |
: Not the debut that Adam Kolarek had in mind.
|
| 12:39 |
: ESPN cites Fangraphs pct chance to win AL West nice!
|
| 12:39 |
: Awesome
|
| 12:39 |
: What occupation, other than MLB reliever, is a good fit for the name J.B. Wendelken? Board game maker?
|
| 12:39 |
: Hand-sewn tie maker
|
| 12:39 |
: Chocolatier
|
| 12:39 |
: Bespoke carpenter
|
| 12:39 |
: J.B. Wendelken is a cobbler
|
| 12:40 |
: Versatile name as it turns out
|
| 12:40 |
: initials “J.B.” get you into the artisan class pretty easily
|
| 12:40 |
: Tobacconist
|
| 12:41 |
: I get being excited when somebody plunks an Astros as a base emotional response, but I don’t understand it when that Astro is Yordan, who didn’t become an Astro until 2019.
|
| 12:41 |
: I just don’t think they’re thinking it through that much
|
| 12:41 |
: Rooting for laundry….
|
| 12:41 |
: Yordan is clearly not a part of it, but yeah
|
| 12:41 |
: He’s an Astro so
|
| 12:42 |
: If you perceive it like an intentional walk, it makes strategic sense
|
| 12:42 |
: Upton looks washed so far tonight
|
| 12:42 |
: And I say that knowing he broke up the no hitter
|
| 12:43 |
: Let me tell you about washed
|
| 12:44 |
: When you walk Yuli Gurriel, you know you’re having location issues.
|
| 12:45 |
: Let *me* tell you about washed
|
| 12:45 |
: Matt Wisler, the man who only throws sliders, walks his first batter of 2021 on five straight sliders
|
| 12:45 |
: That’s actually a pretty great AB by Upton.
|
| 12:46 |
: Yeah I feel like I have to take back what I said about him
|
| 12:46 |
: He did get gifted a ball, but still
|
| 12:47 |
: Bummer’s outing has been quite a….. poor and unfortunate performance.
|
| 12:49 |
: No swings and misses from the underrated reliever. I am now basing my personal evaluation of him on one outing.
|
| 12:49 |
: Yeah a real downer of an outing there
|
| 12:50 |
: should moncada have let the ball go foul…maybe? Tough play there
|
| 12:50 |
: I don’t think so
|
| 12:50 |
: Nice to get the ESPN coverage. Before we finish, a quick reminder that we’re currently having a membership drive, so head on over to fangraphs.com and become a member if you haven’t already done so. It means more content, it means more chats, it means we get to keep doing whatever the hell it is we do.
|
| 12:50 |
: Ty France RBI single!
|
| 12:50 |
: Vive Ty France
|
| 12:51 |
: Mariner bats start to come alive against the Giants bullpen
|
| 12:51 |
: je suis Ty
|
| 12:52 |
: Wisler with ∞ ERA
|
| 12:53 |
: Just two fastballs in 14 pitches
|
| 12:53 |
: I think we can let that Wisler debut…. slide.
|
| 12:53 |
: Yeah, to echo Kevin, it really means a lot to us when people subscribe. It helps us keep doing the nonsense you like, as well as the actually useful stuff you also like
|
| 12:54 |
: Crap, nobody told me about the useful stuff…
|
| 12:54 |
: Very happy to be a member. Nerd question: is there any SQL-query-able baseball databases out there? Does fangraphs have a public facing one?
|
| 12:54 |
: Might I recommend this:
|
| 12:54 |
: Ours is not public-facing, but Bill has some useful tools to scrape Statcast and create your own
|
| 12:54 |
: I already subscribe but if I pay more can I get rid of these pop-ups ads that obscure half the screen?
|
| 12:54 |
: You most certainly can with an ad-free membership
|
| 12:55 |
: In a tie game in the bottom of the 8th, what’s the marginal value to the home team of going up by two runs instead of just by one run?
|
| 12:55 |
: Check out this sweet tool
|
| 12:55 |
: Thank you, love to see something R friendly
|
| 12:55 |
: I will add that SO MANY teams have really embraced R.
|
| 12:55 |
: ad-free membership–totally worth it
|
| 12:55 |
: I got the ad free membership and it’s worth it. I also just bought a mug.
|
| 12:55 |
: BaseballR is great, and so is https://github.com/jldbc/pybaseball
|
| 12:56 |
: I feel inferior for not knowing R
|
| 12:56 |
: “check out this sweet tool” sounds like something artisan JB Wendelken wouldnsayy
|
| 12:56 |
: Learning R is on my list of things to do with all that free time I have
|
| 12:56 |
: I pretty much got through “hello world” in R. I do have a 40 SQL tool.
|
| 12:57 |
: I know Python pretty well already so jumping to R shouldn’t be too hard, right?
|
| 12:57 |
: I’m like 45 SQL, 40 Python
|
| 12:57 |
: that’s the theory I think
|
| 12:57 |
: Thank Ben! If only I could figure out how to use the sweet tool!
|
| 12:57 |
: Basically you put in the state of the game
|
| 12:57 |
: in each
|
| 12:57 |
: and it will show you the team’s chance of winning
|
| 12:58 |
: oooooh. Altuve takes his time on a ground ball to set his throw (remember last year’s issues) and Chad Pinder beats the delayed throw. Mini A’s rally going.
|
| 12:58 |
: There are a few specific things you need to know — run differential is from the home team’s perspective, as is win%
|
| 12:58 |
: Halos are TIED FOR THE BEST RECORD IN BASEBALL.
|
| 12:59 |
: Ben should note that Fowler finished the game by catching one at his chest.
|
| 12:59 |
: Tied starting the bottom of the 8th: 60.7% WP for the home team. Up 1: 86.9%. Up 2: 94%
|
| 12:59 |
: So the first run is way more important
|
| 12:59 |
: We’re so terrified when I see Fowler catch the final out of my son’s save like that
|
| 12:59 |
: Fowler just did a catch straight from that video y’all posted
|
| 12:59 |
: Wait, M’s have them juiced?
|
| 12:59 |
: NIghtmarish
|
| 1:00 |
: Yep, Mariners are threatening to tie with no outs in the eighth
|
| 1:00 |
: Have to switch to youtube tv; thanks, blackouts
|
| 1:00 |
: I have turned the ipad to Seattle…..
|
| 1:00 |
: Evan White chasing a backfoot slider is VERY Evan White.
|
| 1:01 |
: Evan White swings three times trying to tie the game. Comes up empty
|
| 1:01 |
: Kevin, do you still have access to a fancy MLB.tv account without blackouts?
|
| 1:01 |
: Maybe…..
|
| 1:02 |
: lol Jarlin Garcia pitching high leverage innings
|
| 1:02 |
: I tried to say that Jarlin Garcia was an interseting reliever yday
|
| 1:02 |
: But I couldn’t sell it
|
| 1:02 |
: What matters is that you tried.
|
| 1:03 |
: Merryweather owns all the interesting reliever stock after today
|
| 1:03 |
: Alex Reyes looked good
|
| 1:04 |
: But yeah, I guess he’s probably too good of a prospect/name to be ‘interesting’
|
| 1:04 |
: Dolis too, loved watching him
|
| 1:05 |
: Really good at-bat by Trammell here
|
| 1:05 |
: Taylor Trammel putting together a fantastic AB
|
| 1:05 |
: Was about to type the same. Really impressive.
|
| 1:05 |
: RBI walk
|
| 1:05 |
: Impressive zone awareness.
|
| 1:05 |
: Really nicely done. Laid off a bunch of sliders away and fouled off everything close
|
| 1:06 |
: BBeaut
|
| 1:06 |
: Hi Dylan!
|
| 1:06 |
: any chance of doing a twitch stream like this in the future instead of chat? want to hear the voices
|
| 1:07 |
: Well . . . Dylan is our Twitch mastermind so . . . maybe?
|
| 1:07 |
: We did a few of them last year — mainly to test out whether we could talk for that long
|
| 1:07 |
: I’d be up for it.
|
| 1:07 |
: I think it’ll definitely happen again, frequency and timing tbd
|
| 1:07 |
: Ben and I have both proven we can talk for a long time.
|
| 1:07 |
: Stay tuned on that, have plans to discuss it internally next week. But yes, people seemed to enjoy it, so we could do more!
|
| 1:07 |
: Dylan it’s public now
|
| 1:08 |
: Was planning on going to bed, but this Mariners rally + this chat is too good
|
| 1:08 |
: Well, at least the game is.
|
| 1:08 |
: Dylan Moore slaps the first pitch from Rogers into the right field corner. Mariners down by one
|
| 1:08 |
: I believe I called Dylan Moore “sneaky good” on the podcast when I said the Mariners might be pretty good.
|
| 1:09 |
: Do you think it’d be frustrating to make the majors, as Tyler Rogers, and have your brother just be better than you at the same thing?
|
| 1:09 |
: He IS sneaky good. Really like his batted ball data
|
| 1:09 |
: I think it would be weird.
|
| 1:10 |
: What’s weird is that they throw with opposite hands but both are sidearmers.
|
| 1:10 |
: Jason Martinez plans to regularly do the Roster Resource show on Twitch on Wednesday evenings, and line it up with games when possible, and more guests could mean a similar vibe too etc
|
| 1:10 |
: Seager, Rogers and Crawford siblings represented tonight
|
| 1:10 |
: I can’t believe Reymin Guduan is in the big leagues.
|
| 1:11 |
: And based on the first two hitters it might not be for long.
|
| 1:11 |
: Ooof, really poor error in Seattle and the Mariners have the lead
|
| 1:11 |
: DEFENSIVE FUNDIES
|
| 1:11 |
: ‘and everybody’s starting to run’
|
| 1:11 |
: love the Giants broadcast
|
| 1:12 |
: Watching this disaster on the Giants broadcast is something.
|
| 1:13 |
: the brutal part is that aside from McGee, these are the GOOD bullpen arms
|
| 1:13 |
:
La Russa said they received word from their video review team to challenge the call on Nick Madrigal being thrown out stealing second to end the seventh, but by the time the message had been relayed, their 20-second window had expired. Window was reduced this year from 30 seconds
|
| 1:14 |
: Single, walk, walk to start the inning for Guduan. This is what he does.
|
| 1:14 |
: Can montero save it!!
|
| 1:14 |
: We don’t know! We will find out together!
|
| 1:14 |
: Chris is very excitable. Big fan of the exclamation mark.
|
| 1:15 |
: To TLR’s credit, he was honest about it
|
| 1:15 |
: Not to CWS’s credit, uh, that seems bad
|
| 1:16 |
: 6 runs on 3 hits and one error for the Mariners in the eighth. Not great for the Giants bullpen.
|
| 1:17 |
: Montero to the ninth, one run lead, Slater/Yaz/Solano due.
|
| 1:17 |
: Astros pulling away. Looks like Guduan is going to wear the ninth regardless.
|
| 1:18 |
: Kevin, would you call it a professional at bat after Brantley walks on four pitches?
|
| 1:18 |
: Depends on where they are.
|
| 1:18 |
: Like four borderline? I might.
|
| 1:18 |
: Oh, these four from Guduan
|
| 1:18 |
: One close, three ehhhhhhhh not so much
|
| 1:19 |
: Who had the worst Opening Day – Reds, Cubs, Twins, White Sox or (probably) Giants?
|
| 1:19 |
: Twins unless Donaldson is okay
|
| 1:19 |
: Twins probably
|
| 1:21 |
: Montero can’t save it!!
|
| 1:21 |
: ALEX DICKERSON
|
| 1:21 |
: How was that a home run?
|
| 1:21 |
: WOW. Alex Dickerson is really good vs. RHP and shows it there. Makes Indiana proud.
|
| 1:21 |
: Ben: 106/19/408
|
| 1:21 |
: I didn’t think it got up enough
|
| 1:22 |
: Yeah 19, he pounded that thing to hit it that far
|
| 1:22 |
: It just kept carrying
|
| 1:22 |
: was that a bad pitch?
|
| 1:22 |
: Yes, and three straight CH was a bit weird.
|
| 1:23 |
: How valuable is a truly plus 1B like White?
|
| 1:23 |
: kevin were you covering indiana during his draft year?
|
| 1:23 |
: It was 2011, I was still in media career No. 1
|
| 1:23 |
: re: White, he still has to hit.
|
| 1:24 |
: Well yeah, that appears to be a problem
|
| 1:24 |
: He’s just a really impressive defender. 1B defense can’t be THAT valuable but I do feel like we don’t do a good job (on the public side) quantifying it
|
| 1:24 |
: Yeah, Crawford probably doesn’t win his Gold Glove at SS if White isn’t picking his throws
|
| 1:26 |
: One more reason to love the SF tv crew: it’s rarely incessant, “I think you’re right, Bob” back-and-forth. Feels like watching with good friends!
|
| 1:26 |
: Yeah they’re solid
|
| 1:26 |
: But he’s gotta prove he can turn that raw batted ball data into consistent contact
|
| 1:26 |
: Opening Day is fun when we’re getting excited about Giants/Mariners
|
| 1:26 |
: is this where the cool kids hang out?
|
| 1:26 |
: Now that you’re here, maybe
|
| 1:26 |
: and just maybe.
|
| 1:27 |
: The only person I hear about re: 1B defense is Keith Hernandez. Are there any other seminal examples?
|
| 1:27 |
: He’s the one I always think of as well
|
| 1:27 |
: Um… I mean Eric Hosmer, but that’s kind of a joke about how hard it is to quantify
|
| 1:28 |
: Doug Mientkiewicz
|
| 1:28 |
: Brandon Belt is pretty elite at 1B defense
|
| 1:28 |
: Belt is good, for sure
|
| 1:28 |
: Goldschmidt is reputed to be excellent, I have a hard time seeing it with my eyes though
|
| 1:29 |
: Baseball is so awesome. I got my second vaccine 2 weeks ago, taking my 71 year old, fully vaccinated father to the game on Sunday. Today got me even more excited. Thanks all!
|
| 1:29 |
: Mattingly was pretty fantastic
|
| 1:29 |
: Amazing, and congratulations
|
| 1:29 |
: Fantastic. I got shot No. 1 yesterday (Wednesday) and I couldn’t be happier to have a sore right arm.
|
| 1:29 |
: Was Olerud a plus defender or am I imagining that
|
| 1:29 |
: Oh yeah, he was good.
|
| 1:30 |
: Olson (OAK)?
|
| 1:30 |
: Okay maybe there are more than I think!
|
| 1:30 |
: Jake McGee is too old for a mohawk.
|
| 1:30 |
: I came across this late and can’t imagine a better way to wind down today’s slate. Thanks for doing this!
|
| 1:30 |
: Thanks for coming!
|
| 1:31 |
: I just realized this chat is still going from this morning and I’m shocked to see KG still here
|
| 1:31 |
: What the hell else would I be doing?
|
| 1:31 |
: I feel less good about McGee after seeing his haircut
|
| 1:32 |
: Did the Dodgers fix McGee or did Coors field break him and he was always this?
|
| 1:32 |
: I’ll still never understand why McGee was used so little last postseason.
|
| 1:32 |
: Is it funny that the Giants have a pitcher in their bullpen who throws almost exclusively sliders and another that throws only fastballs
|
| 1:33 |
: I feel like they were worried he was tiring, I don’t have any other good explanations
|
| 1:33 |
: What are you looking for, Ty?
|
| 1:33 |
: Haha, I said that out loud too
|
| 1:34 |
: KG, I opened today by saying I still had some hard feelings re: HOU. I still do, but you’re freakin amazing for doing this almost all day.
|
| 1:34 |
: That’s fine, you can have them. I do too.
|
| 1:34 |
: official FG breakout pick Ty France was not up there swinging
|
| 1:35 |
: And we go to extras in Seattle
|
| 1:35 |
: This is when I tell people that I like the runner on second rule.
|
| 1:35 |
: I thought I’d hate it, but it was fine once the games got underway
|
| 1:35 |
: pointless trivia question
|
| 1:35 |
: Do you know who the first regular season big league runner on second was?
|
| 1:36 |
: One person already got it
|
| 1:36 |
: It was an Astro wasn’t it?
|
| 1:36 |
: AL
|
| 1:36 |
: Two people now
|
| 1:36 |
: Okay, we have enough now
|
| 1:36 |
: I was wrong.
|
| 1:36 |
: Shohei Ohtani
|
| 1:36 |
: Who promptly ran himself into an out
|
| 1:37 |
: I remember b/c I’d been writing about the strategy of it
|
| 1:37 |
: Astros win 8-1. Ninth straight Opening Day win which tells me they never lost on Opening Day during my eight years there.
|
| 1:37 |
: and then yeah, no strategy, no one bunted
|
| 1:37 |
: I’m still sad about that
|
| 1:38 |
: speaking of good first base defense, Matt Olson threw Ohtani out in that game
|
| 1:38 |
: lol Longoria with a fake double celebration
|
| 1:39 |
: even with shifts, no one bunts
|
| 1:39 |
: Bunting is really hard against mid to upper 90s FBs and mid-80s sliders.
|
| 1:39 |
: With the runner starting at second, why wouldn’t you just intentionally walk the first batter… give you a DP option right away?
|
| 1:39 |
: more reasonable in the bottom
|
| 1:40 |
: in the top, you have an okay chance at tying if they only score one, so don’t get yourself into extra trouble
|
| 1:40 |
: I thought we were anti-bunt here
|
| 1:40 |
: I’m extremely pro-bunt when it makes sense
|
| 1:40 |
: It’s just, it almost never makes sense
|
| 1:40 |
: I’m extremely pro bunt when it makes sense, but I think those times are VERY rare
|
| 1:40 |
: jinx
|
| 1:41 |
: it’s like getting a knight instead of a queen in chess when you make it across the board
|
| 1:41 |
: Love this example
|
| 1:41 |
: if it makes sense there, what a sweet artisanal play. It’s one J.B. Wendelken would construct for you
|
| 1:41 |
: But it usually just doesn’t
|
| 1:41 |
: 30-grade hair on the pitcher
|
| 1:42 |
: J.B. Wendelken, artisan and amateur chess champion of the village.
|
| 1:42 |
: J.B. Wendelken only plays timed chess.
|
| 1:43 |
: Wilmer, mash lefties please
|
| 1:44 |
: Wilmer did not mash lefties
|
| 1:44 |
: We jinxed him with all the talk about it earlier
|
| 1:44 |
: Longoria didn’t even budge
|
| 1:44 |
: A run on a wild pitch here would be oh so very Giants/Mariners
|
| 1:45 |
: Fantastic catch by Mitch Haniger to get out of the inning
|
| 1:45 |
: I gave up on this one in the fifth. Fun game now.
|
| 1:46 |
: Oh right, Mitch Haniger is a plus defender
|
| 1:46 |
: I haven’t seen him play in so long
|
| 1:47 |
: He was so fun to watch in 2018
|
| 1:47 |
: If there was one position you could upgrade on this Mariner roster, outside of pitching, what position would that be?
|
| 1:47 |
: Second base
|
| 1:48 |
: Shed Long doesn’t look like the answer and Dylan Moore would be best used as a super utility player
|
| 1:49 |
: What about catcher?
|
| 1:49 |
: Torrens is fine and Cal Raleigh is on his way up
|
| 1:50 |
: Bunt makes sense here?
|
| 1:50 |
: I’m a big Cal Raleigh fan.
|
| 1:50 |
: Here is a troll-ish article I wrote about it
|
| 1:50 |
: The title should tell you how much I was trolling
|
| 1:51 |
: Trammel putting up some good at-bats this game
|
| 1:51 |
: His eye at the plate has always been a skill. The power was new this spring and it’ll be interesting to see if he can carry it over in April.
|
| 1:51 |
: It took me a second to realize that Cal Raleigh wasn’t a UC school I’d never heard of
|
| 1:52 |
: what if the player in question bunts successfully at a high rate for his career? does that move the needle?
|
| 1:52 |
: Florida State. Realy liked him in the draft and he’s improved defensively.
|
| 1:52 |
: For me it would
|
| 1:52 |
: This woo-ing woman is the WORST btw
|
| 1:53 |
: She hasn’t been able to go to a M’s game in over a year! Cut her some slack.
|
| 1:54 |
: When Kelenic comes up, who loses their OF job?
|
| 1:54 |
: Depends on how Trammell fairs this month.
|
| 1:54 |
: Here’s a good reason not to auto-walk the first batter, btw
|
| 1:55 |
: The worst. I just got the “can you please turn it down” from upstairs and it was all the woo-er. She really carries.
|
| 1:55 |
: No ability to land the slider, but year, keep calling for sliders.
|
| 1:55 |
: Happy baseball!
|
| 1:55 |
: Wow!
|
| 1:56 |
: Thanks for spending the day with us everyone. I’m OUT.
|
| 1:56 |
: a true walk off
|
| 1:56 |
: gnight everyone
|
| 1:56 |
: YAY THE GIANTS LOSE THIS IS WHAT I LIVE FOR
|
| 1:56 |
: Dodgers and Giants tied
|
| 1:56 |
: Thanks for chatting all! Goodnight!
|
| 1:56 |
: Thanks for hanging out, everyone
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.