| 1:03 |
 David Laurila: Happy postseason, all.
|
| 1:05 |
David Laurila: I’ve seen each of the Guardians and Tigers in-person six times this month, so I have a decent feel for this series.
|
| 1:06 |
David Laurila: And despite their records over the past month, I favor the visiting team in this series — unless the Tigers don’t win with Skubal on the mound.
|
| 1:08 |
Pocket Pancakes: Favorite pitching matchup today?
|
| 1:08 |
David Laurila: Crochet-Fried, but Skubal-Williams is close. Gavin Williams is really good.
|
| 1:08 |
 Dan Szymborski: G’afternoon!
|
| 1:09 |
Guest: Tigers fan here- I have my “They can’t keep getting away with this” gif ready
|
| 1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: Crochet Fried is my pick too
|
| 1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: Though this one is a big one. At least by ZiPS, this is *the* swingiest game
|
| 1:12 |
Go River Cats: If Dan’s cats were to predict the WS winner, who would each pick?
|
| 1:12 |
Dan Szymborski: Presumably Tigers
|
| 1:12 |
Dan Szymborski: and Cassie would HATE the Blue Jays. For some reasons, she hates the blue jays and cardinals that come into the yard but doesn’t seem to hate other birds to the same degre
|
| 1:12 |
Lily: Tigers have the better starting pitching, but need to get the lineup hitting well again
|
| 1:12 |
David Laurila: This is… probably true? The latter part is without question, but outside of Skubal being the best in baseball, are Detroit’s starters truly better? Cleveland has sneaky-good starters.
|
| 1:12 |
Dan Szymborski: But if you see her at the window trilling and chattering, you KNOW it’s a colorful bird of some type
|
| 1:14 |
David Laurila: Having seen a fair bit of the Tigers recently, I can confidently say that a run-scoring blooper is a sign that maybe everything won’t continue to go wrong for the offense, as it seemingly has been for weeks.
|
| 1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: ALSO, I’ve got three OOTP 26 keys to give away during the game, which I will do after the second, fifth, and eighth innings
|
| 1:15 |
RH: What happens if the Dodgers just don’t submit a roster? Are the last pitcher and last position player alphabetically just dropped?
|
| 1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: They can only play people in the crowd
|
| 1:15 |
Ineffectively Tame: True or false: this game is must-win for Detroit, but not for Cleveland
|
| 1:15 |
David Laurila: Reasonable opinion.
|
| 1:15 |
Kate Shrike: I don’t have a question I’m just so excited the postseason is here
|
| 1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: naturally, streaming wouldn’t cooperate so I missed the first half inning!
|
| 1:16 |
Jimmy: Which of the teams skipping the WC round is most likely to have the “bitten by the bye” label applied to them? Not most likely to lose, mind you, but most likely if they lose to get this label?
|
| 1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: it tends to be the best team, so either brewers or phillies
|
| 1:16 |
El Tim: While we’re not quite in Bold Predictions Retrospective Season, now that the regular season is over, what do you think would have been the bolder prediction in March 2025. Cal hits 60 home runs or Juan Soto leads the NL in stolen bases?
|
| 1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Soto
|
| 1:16 |
goreds: If Hunter Greene goes out and throws a gem and the Reds take game 1, would it ever make sense to sell out and try to steal game 2 by starting Lodolo and bringing in Abbott after ~ 4 IP or so instead of hoping one of them can put together a 6+ inning start in game 2 or 3?
|
| 1:16 |
David Laurila: I think the Reds would be better served to have both start,
|
| 1:17 |
NowIOnlyWantATriumph: Why are the Tigers playing? According to MLB.com’s website right now, the Astros are ALWC3.
|
| 1:19 |
Go River Cats: Is the OOTP key thing a contest of some sort? Or do we simply request one and it’s picked at random?
|
| 1:19 |
Reds vs Dodgers: The Dodgers may have the better lineup, but the Reds have some truly game-changing pitchers on their side, like Greene, Abbott, Burns, Scott, and Treinen. My money’s on the Reds.
|
| 1:19 |
David Laurila: Not sure if the reasoning behind that take is A+ or D-, but is an entertaining take.
|
| 1:19 |
Dan Szymborski: they gave me some keys to give out a while back adn we haven’t had an appropriate chat
|
| 1:20 |
TameImp: Please rank the baseball holidays: Opening Day, the old One Game 163 Playoff (RIP), WC round day 1, WS Game 7
|
| 1:21 |
Lily: Riley Greene really feels lost at the plate lately. A shame after such a strong start
|
| 1:21 |
Dan Szymborski: The good thing, if you’re a Tigers fan, is there isn’t any significant relationship between late season performance postseason performanc3!
|
| 1:21 |
Dan Szymborski: WS Game 7, 163, Openign Day, WC
|
| 1:22 |
Oaktown Blues: Dan, I think the intended question was, how will the OOTP key handout work? Will you just drop one in the chat and the first to register it wins?
|
| 1:22 |
Dan Szymborski: trivia and pm
|
| 1:23 |
David Laurila: Greene did hit a bomb in Cleveland last week, but yes, he is definitely scuffling. The Tigers need him to produce in order to have an October that lasts beyond the next few days.
|
| 1:23 |
J: Man people tend to way underestimate the randomness of the playoffs. The Fangraphs odds give about a 25% chance not a single writer will have correctly guessed the World Series winner! (I don’t mean this to criticize any of your picks – I just think it’s quite hard!)
|
| 1:23 |
Go River Cats: Not a super bold prediction, but I think Skubal is going to go CG Shutout today
|
| 1:23 |
Dan Szymborski: cg prediction is always bold in 25
|
| 1:25 |
Syndergaardengnomes: Man, this is awesome! Been looking forward to Mets playoff baseball ever since I woke up from that 2 month coma last night! LFGM!
|
| 1:25 |
J: Saying “repa-twah” should get you immediately booted from the broadcast booth
|
| 1:25 |
Jeb: Bold: CG Shutout in 2025; Bolder: Complete Series Shutout in 2025, only Skubal pitches. Gotta get those numbers up, Dan
|
| 1:26 |
TameImp: Will see Ohtani in the outfield at any point this postseason?
|
| 1:27 |
TameImp: Which team do you think has the biggest home field advantage
|
| 1:27 |
David Laurila: I believe that the Cubs had the best home record of the teams that didn’t get a bye. It is also Wrigley, and Cubs fans are Cubs fans, so I’ll go with them.
|
| 1:27 |
Dan Szymborski: no i think
|
| 1:27 |
PCAs stylist: Cease g2, Darvish g3, how many goats should I sacrifice?
|
| 1:28 |
David Laurila: Gavin Williams — featured here at FG today — is one of the most-underrated pitchers in the game IMO.
|
| 1:29 |
Victoria: day games at wrigley have to favor the Cubs over a west coast team
|
| 1:29 |
The person who asks the lunch questions: What’s for lunch?
|
| 1:29 |
Dan Szymborski: wings
|
| 1:31 |
STiVo: What’s up with Gavin Williams only having 1.4 fWAR this year?
|
| 1:31 |
Dan Szymborski: .254 babip
|
| 1:31 |
Quarantino Martinez: I know it’s 2025 and he wasn’t a full-timer, but it still feels weird that the Guardians cleanup hitter is batting .197
|
| 1:31 |
re: what victoria said: as a cubs fan in socal i have to agree, i won’t be at 100% listening to that game while at work
|
| 1:33 |
David Laurila: Javier Baez continues to have incredibly quick hands. No idea how well he takes a punch, but I could see him being a good boxer.
|
| 1:33 |
guardians fans, probably: “Wake me up when Skubal exits.”
|
| 1:37 |
Dan Szymborski: OK, first trivia question coming in 30 seconds. Look for a private message if you’re first to answer. First correct gets an OOTP 26 key.
|
| 1:38 |
David Laurila: At the onset of the season, I asked The Detroit Free Press’s Evan Petzold who the key to the Tigers’ success is this year. He went with Parker Meadows. Has me wondering what Meadows might have done had he been healthy for most of the campaign.
|
| 1:38 |
Dan Szymborski: TRIVIA: This former Tiger outfielder was once fined $100 for a slide into second base that was clean in baseball terms, but very, very messy in reality.
|
| 1:39 |
Syndergaardengnomes: Trivia Question – Gates Brown
|
| 1:40 |
David Laurila: I assume this is the correct answer.
|
| 1:40 |
Dan Szymborski: The first correct one! Gates Brown once was on the bench for a game and was called to pinch-hit while he was buying hot dogs. He put them in his pocket, got a hit, and slid into second base, getting mustard and hot dog splatter all over his jersey.
|
| 1:41 |
Syndergaardengnomes: Nobody, and I mean nobody, is going to beat me in a hot dog related baseball trivia question.
|
| 1:41 |
Dan Szymborski: Syndergaard, verify to me that you got the PM
|
| 1:41 |
Justin: It was a different time if players had to buy hot dogs during games
|
| 1:42 |
David Laurila: Gates Brown being, of course, one of the two players the Tigers signed out of prison.
|
| 1:42 |
Ineffectively Tame: In my headcanon, that is the actual Noah Syndergaard
|
| 1:45 |
Dan Szymborski: This game has been QUICK
|
| 1:45 |
Josh Zerkle: just googled him; amazing story
|
| 1:45 |
Victoria: Putting a hot dog in my pocket as a way to sneak in sticky stuff
|
| 1:45 |
drplantwrench: true or false: 1-0 is the final score
|
| 1:45 |
Dan Szymborski: F
|
| 1:45 |
Oaktown Blues: Not playoff related, but: will the FanGraphs mailbag continue now that the season is over? Is it intended to run through the off-season?
|
| 1:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I believe we’re stiill doing it weekly, so long as people give us questions!
|
| 1:46 |
Ignorant Question: When FG’s player page says Skubal is a FA in 2027, does that mean after 2026 season?
|
| 1:46 |
Dan Szymborski: yup
|
| 1:46 |
gav hater: isn’t gavin williams’s WAR better explained by his poor walk and home run rates
|
| 1:46 |
Dan Szymborski: But BABIP is the big disconnect here between the ERA and the FIP
|
| 1:46 |
Dan Szymborski: Bad walk rates and homers already in FIP
|
| 1:47 |
sodo mojo: So are the big advantages to having they Bye being able to sequence your starters and a fully rested bullpen?
|
| 1:47 |
Dan Szymborski: Certainly helps, but it’s like getting to skip red light/green light in Squid Games
|
| 1:47 |
Idiotic Failson: After watching the Red Sox trade away Devers and make the playoffs – and the Giants subsequently miss the playoffs with him – is this just a coincidental turn of events or is there something ‘there’?
|
| 1:47 |
David Laurila: This is almost impossible to answer definitively. I’m inclined to say coincidental turn of events, but… maybe?
|
| 1:47 |
Victoria: O/U $300 mil for Skubal
|
| 1:47 |
Dan Szymborski: over
|
| 1:47 |
Tacoby Bellsbury: Victoria, you’re going to want a cheddar brat for that.
|
| 1:47 |
Go River Cats: Would hot dog water give someone a better grip on the baseball?
|
| 1:48 |
Dan Szymborski: isn’t hot dog water kinda gross and slimy?
|
| 1:48 |
Dan Szymborski: and you should be grilling hot dogs, monsters
|
| 1:48 |
Sonny: no Guardians are allowed to have a .700 OPS. You can either be .800+ (let’s be real that’s just JRam) or comfortably in the low to mid .600s
|
| 1:49 |
Guest: Per Jon Stewart, the only three things that belong on hot dogs are mustard, relish, and lukewarm hot dog water
|
| 1:49 |
Dan Szymborski: I feel a Chicago dog is the perfect combination
|
| 1:49 |
Dan Szymborski: and outside of that formulation: sauerkraut + mustard + onion
|
| 1:49 |
Brian: Is this CLE lineup the worst hitting lineup ever fielded by a playoff team?
|
| 1:49 |
Dan Szymborski: no way!
|
| 1:51 |
Cameron: Hoping for a pitching duel here
|
| 1:51 |
David Laurila: Three innings in, this is what we have. Long way to go though, and Williams’s pitch count is up to 47.
|
| 1:51 |
Sonny: Our .310 OPB and .340 slug kings
|
| 1:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Lowest OPS+ for a playoff team is 73 Mets and 07 Diamondbacks at 83
|
| 1:52 |
Sonny: Imagine pitching around Austin Hedges
|
| 1:52 |
Dan Szymborski: I understand the fear: if he hits a postseason HR off of you, you never work again!
|
| 1:52 |
Ineffectively Tame: Skubal walking Hedges has to be one of the unlikeliest single PA results possible.
|
| 1:55 |
David Laurila: FWIW: Hedges is 10-for-30 vs the Tigers over the past three seasons.
|
| 1:53 |
Dan Szymborski: (I’d do wRC+ but we don’t have an easy playoff filter checkbox, stathead does)
|
| 1:53 |
Quarantino Martinez: Looking at the Guardians runs-created leaders over the last few years shows the JRam reliance:
|
| 1:53 |
Quarantino Martinez: 2021: Ramírez with 109 (Amed Rosario second with 71 2022: Ramírez with 114 (Andrés Giménez and Kwan second with 89) 2023: Ramírez with 108 (Kwan second with 87) 2024: Ramírez with 115 (Josh Naylor second with 80) 2025: Ramírez with 111 (Kwan second with 85)
|
| 1:53 |
Brian: I meant specific to this game not Team as a whole… This lineup is lower than 83…doing math now
|
| 1:54 |
Dan Szymborski: Guardians vs. lefties is definitely the worst projected lineup/platoon combo in ZiPS among playoff teams thi syera
|
| 1:54 |
Dan Szymborski: best estimate based on current lineups is Yankees vs. lefties
|
| 1:55 |
baseball_is_life: not to mention a 4 pitch walk on hedges
|
| 1:55 |
Stephen: Michael Conforto is not on the Dodgers WC Roster. Justin Dean IS, presumably for pinch running and defense. Did you expect this, after keeping him on the team the entire year?
|
| 1:55 |
Dan Szymborski: Not after they kept sending him out there all year
|
| 1:55 |
Dan Szymborski: Man, Green WANTED that pithc
|
| 1:56 |
Sonny: If 105 wrc+ corner types are so abundant and available why has Cleveland not employed more than one at a time since the Clinton administration?
|
| 1:56 |
EccentricATLFan: Something I will always find hilarious is how Andrew Vaughn went from “replacement-level guy on the worst team in modern baseball history” to “a notable part of the team that had the most wins in the 2025 regular season” within 12 months.
|
| 1:58 |
Matt: Why must Rob Manfred schedule the game I have tickets to for 8 minutes after a meeting I can’t move?
|
| 1:58 |
Dan Szymborski: oof
|
| 1:58 |
Guest: Dan, thoughts on Emilio Pagan, playoff closer?
|
| 1:58 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m meh, but he was better this season than he’s been
|
| 1:58 |
drplantwrench: Rob Manfred cares about your career obviously, Matt
|
| 1:58 |
baseball_is_life: do you think a flip like that in vaughn is coaching related?
|
| 1:59 |
Brian: If I just evenly weight the WRc for the lineup today I get 80.66. For this specific lineup for CLE.
|
| 1:59 |
Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me ghost the chat while I go through seasonal wRC+ of every individual lineup i postseason history!
|
| 1:59 |
The Oriole Bird: Ballpark the odds: Trout (87.2 fWAR) passes Ripken (92.5) in career WAR in 2026?
|
| 1:59 |
Dan Szymborski: 40/60 against
|
| 2:00 |
drplantwrench: also not related to playoffs, but is benji gil really available for coaching jobs? should i get my hope up for the angels now that ron washington is officially not coming back
|
| 2:00 |
Bencle Mens: Hey Kyle Manzardo ain’t that bad.
|
| 2:00 |
David Laurila: Ramirez, Kwan, and Manzardo give the Guardians a solid threesome of hitters, but they certainly need more. I can see Kayfus being a plus bat going forward.
|
| 2:02 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what Gil’s up to. He’s managing Mexico again in WBC. I know he was an Angels coach a few years ago, btu I’m not sure what he’s been up to last year or so
|
| 2:02 |
The Oriole Bird: Just to check that…. Would ZiPS give Trout a ~40% chance of amassing at least 5.3 WAR in 2026?
|
| 2:02 |
Dan Szymborski: maybe? I don’t have it open!
|
| 2:02 |
Josh Zerkle: Does anyone else miss the one-game wild card? Seemed like a more exciting start to the postseason and a better fit logistically.
|
| 2:02 |
David Laurila: What do people think? I favor the best-of-three, but the one-game was definitely compelling.
|
| 2:02 |
Guest: Think it’s interesting that 23 of 25 FG writers think the winner of this series gets beat by the Mariners next round. Any rough estimations of what Zips would put the odds at?
|
| 2:02 |
Dan Szymborski: I would GUESS probably 55 mariners vs. det, maybe 60 vs. cle
|
| 2:03 |
Vlad’s Dad: Glass cleanup delay? Who had that on their bingo card?
|
| 2:03 |
Go River Cats: What just shattered in the backstop?
|
| 2:04 |
cirquedusoulay: If Martinez gets a knock here, he’s gotta change his walk-up music to Stone Cold’s
|
| 2:04 |
VottoStillBangs: Camera hit by foul tip <<<< random bird
|
| 2:04 |
David Laurila: A home run following the smashed-camera delay would be a story.
|
| 2:04 |
The Oriole Bird: I thought the one-game series were lots of fun and chaotic. I appreciated how each team would have to burn their best pitcher as punishment for only being a WC team.
|
| 2:04 |
MyBloodyBallantine: My preference would have been to just make the wild card game a best of 3 and keep the two wild card teams. It’s weird to me that winning the division counts, but only for two of the division winners.
|
| 2:04 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t mind it. It rewards being a BETTER division winner, not just a division winner
|
| 2:04 |
Dan Szymborski: and I like things that incentivize teams to win more games
|
| 2:04 |
Oddball Herrera: One game wildcard was a bit like a shootout in hockey/football. Sure it may be fun to watch, but it sure didn’t feel like anywhere close to a measurement of who was the better team
|
| 2:05 |
Dan Szymborski: I think of it more as a punishment for good teams not winning more games
|
| 2:05 |
Neelix: Luis Robert Jr. .223/.297/.364 2025 Guardians .226/.296/.373
How did a team of Luis Robert Jrs make the playoffs? And how can we get Robert to Cleveland next year?
|
| 2:05 |
David Laurila: How many Tigers fans are thinking about the three-run, no-balls-hit-out-of-the-infield inning last week?
|
| 2:06 |
muxosk: Broken glass not a sound I’m sure I’ve ever heard watching pro baseball before
|
| 2:06 |
Dan Szymborski: my favorite baseball sound is still the stanton oh shit home run during COVID
|
| 2:07 |
Oddball Herrera: my favorite baseball sound is the JJ Putz guitar shredding right when he was in his windup
|
| 2:10 |
Dan Szymborski: dangit, the MLB link to the stanton oh shit homer no longer works
|
| 2:10 |
Dan Szymborski: splat!
|
| 2:10 |
STiVo: Speaking of baseball sounds… did that Miami monstrosity make noise when the Marlins hit a HR back in the day? I can only imagine what sound effects would’ve been dreamt up to pair with that debacle.
|
| 2:10 |
David Laurila: Wow.
|
| 2:11 |
Dan Szymborski: they had some sounds
|
| 2:11 |
Dan Szymborski: usually a song, I think they had three or four
|
| 2:11 |
David Laurila: Another no-balls-out-of-the-infield rally or the Guardians against Skubal. Unreal.
|
| 2:12 |
Guest: I don’t understand how they keep scoring like this
|
| 2:12 |
Dan Szymborski: I always thought the Marlins shoudl have had some creepy circus minor key waltz for the homers
|
| 2:13 |
Alex: what did we do before replay? Hasn’t been around that long but I cannot imagine baseball without it lol
|
| 2:14 |
Oddball Herrera: Hopefully all calliope music
|
| 2:14 |
Finnegan’s SSW: My favorite COVID-era swearing was Joc Pederson saying a bad word followed by BLEHHH
|
| 2:14 |
David Laurila: Had that bunt worked, Tigers fans would be heading for liquor cabinets en masse.
|
| 2:15 |
Sonny: Infield choppers against Skubal are the new ‘Jon Lester can’t throw to 1B’
|
| 2:16 |
Smiling Politely: someone help me understand the logic behind bunting there
|
| 2:16 |
David Laurila: September 23, sixth inning, Progressive Field.
|
| 2:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Doing the next trivia OOTP 26 key after fifth
|
| 2:18 |
bada87bing: four out of five runs the Guardians have scored this year against Skubal have come in innings where the ball hasn’t even reached the second base bag, let alone the outfield grass
|
| 2:20 |
PlanetDust: Hey, late to the chat–what’s the projections’ logic behind SEA twice as likely to win WS than TOR? Gut-wise it feels OK to me but that ‘s a bigger gap than I’d expect from projections
|
| 2:20 |
Dan Szymborski: The projections were just kinda meh on Blue Jays, though ZiPS a bit higher than Steamer
|
| 2:20 |
Dan Szymborski: Steamer liked Seattle mor than ZiPS IIRC
|
| 2:22 |
Natitude Adjuster: You have to have ZiPS “open”? I thought it was some kind of scary cybernetic part of you…
|
| 2:22 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not smart enough to program human/computer amalgams
|
| 2:22 |
Neelix: Seattle gets to play DET/CLE, while Toronto has to play NYY/BOS. Big gap in opponent quality too, no?
|
| 2:22 |
Dan Szymborski: yup
|
| 2:22 |
Sonny: From a fan enjoyment standpoint watching Cleveland struggle against heaven and earth to push one run across over the course of like 6 hitters and 20 minutes is a delightful experience. When Stanton hits a solo HR 118 mph tonight against Crochet and does all the work Cleveland just did in less than 3 seconds I’m going to cackle.
|
| 2:23 |
Justin: Any insight on why Meadows leads-off
|
| 2:23 |
David Laurila: No insight, but it seems Carpenter would make more sense.
|
| 2:25 |
Quarantino Martinez: Big Christmas at a disadvantage because he struggles hitting infield singles
|
| 2:26 |
Dan Szymborski: If he gets sent to the minors is it part of the war on christmas?
|
| 2:26 |
Guest: Better chance of making a run assuming they advance: Cleveland or Detroit?
|
| 2:26 |
Dan Szymborski: I still think detroit.
|
| 2:28 |
Dan Szymborski: OK, next OOTP 26 key question in 30 seconds
|
| 2:29 |
David Laurila: Worth noting that Skubal has thrown 100 or more pitches in a game just three times this season, with a high of 105. He told me in August that it is difficult to throw a large number of pitches when you’re out there dealing at 97-100 mph.
|
| 2:29 |
lzfreak: How many pitches do we think Skubal will go today?
|
| 2:30 |
David Laurila: Maybe 110?
|
| 2:31 |
Dan Szymborski: A speedy Royals outfielder and member of the Hall of Very Good never hit more than 10 home runs in a season, holds a significant post-deadball career home run record. Who is the outfielder and what post-deadball career home run record does he hold?
|
| 2:32 |
TOM TIMMERMAN: I have Gates Brown’s autograph. It has no mustard smudges.
|
| 2:34 |
David Laurila: Timmermann was of course the Tigers closer before Fred Scherman displaced him.
|
| 2:32 |
Hal: Dan how do you pronounce your last name? Realizing now I have no idea if the way I say it makes sense (“sim”, rhyming with “jim”)
|
| 2:32 |
Dan Szymborski: zim-BORE-skee, which is absolutely wrong in the original Polish, but is horrible to say
|
| 2:32 |
Dan Szymborski: gotta say the OF *and* the record he holds (don’t need the exact number)
|
| 2:32 |
Go River Cats: Willie Wilson and Inside the Park HRs
|
| 2:32 |
Dan Szymborski: Bingo
|
| 2:34 |
Gemini: AI got your answer too quickly. Sad state of affairs.
|
| 2:34 |
Dan Szymborski: AI can hallucinate quite a bit!
|
| 2:34 |
Dan Szymborski: Don’t worry, the last one isn’t googlable and you can only cheat if you’re at my house
|
| 2:35 |
Dan Szymborski: what REALLY amuses me about my last name pronunciation – Boog knows how I say my last name, so MY pronunciation gets to be in MLB the Show
|
| 2:35 |
Syndergaardengnomes: Final tricia question cat and lunch related confirmed.
|
| 2:35 |
guy who’s in dan’s house: finally.
|
| 2:37 |
baseball_is_life: Gavin is generating a ton of swing and miss, even for him. Will be excited to see how it looks compared to his baseline when it’s all said and done.
|
| 2:37 |
chatgpt: i said this was the record: The record: Wilson holds the post–deadball era career record for most home runs hit by a player who never reached double digits in a single season (he hit 41 career HRs without ever hitting 10 in a season).
|
| 2:38 |
David Laurila: I don’t know many swings-and-misses and called strikes the Tigers have against Williams, but it seems like a good mix of both. And a good bit of both.
|
| 2:40 |
Quarantino Martinez: People make a lot of mistakes. AI hallucinations are basically the most human thing they do.
|
| 2:40 |
Go River Cats: Who does hold the record for most home runs without reaching double digits in a single season?
|
| 2:40 |
Dan Szymborski: hmm, i can find tha tout
|
| 2:40 |
David Laurila: Sixth inning, tie game. As good as Skubal is, I think it would be a good idea to not give Jose Ramirez anything to hit. You don’t want to give this guy a chance to beat you.
|
| 2:42 |
Gemini: I copied and pasted the question about most HR without double-digits directly into Gemini (Google)… and it hilariously said the answer was “multiple players” with “9.”
|
| 2:44 |
Guest: 9 *is* the most home runs you can hit in a single season without going into double-digits! AI is coming for us all
|
| 2:44 |
Quarantino Martinez: The Guardians should just be bunting. Their batting average is way higher on balls in the infield.
|
| 2:44 |
David Laurila: Looking ahead to tonight, the Red Sox are 8-1 in their last nine postseason games against the Yankees. Obviously not predictive, but worth noting.
|
| 2:44 |
Raph Fangs: Is this the most evenly matched Wild Card series? Feels like good pitching, few runs is going to be the case for all 2 or 3 games
|
| 2:44 |
David Laurila: Yes and yes.
|
| 2:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I personally think SD/CHC is closest
|
| 2:45 |
Dan Szymborski: (ZiPS might too, I forget)
|
| 2:49 |
Dan Szymborski: The answer is Brad Ausmus with 80 career homers and a career high of nine.
|
| 2:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Tony Taylor is 75, 9
|
| 2:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Garry Templeton 70/9
|
| 2:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Fred Clarke 67/9
|
| 2:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Edd Roush 64/8
|
| 2:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Tommy Leach 63/7
|
| 2:50 |
War2D2: Dan: Do you actually know Boog, or does he just have a general knowledge of your professional work?
|
| 2:50 |
Dan Szymborski: acquainted
|
| 2:50 |
Dan Szymborski: Remember, I worked for ESPN from 2010-2018
|
| 2:50 |
Guest: How did you find the single-season/career homer info?
|
| 2:50 |
Dan Szymborski: I ran the numbers myself
|
| 2:50 |
Bosoxforlife: Skubal is at 82 pitches with a season high of 105. Do you think he will be allowed to surpass that figure and, if so, by how many?
|
| 2:50 |
Dan Szymborski: Depends whta lead is, if any
|
| 2:50 |
STiVo: Feels lucky that both players escaped without an injury in that weird play at 1B…
|
| 2:51 |
Dan Szymborski: if this inning ends with tigers up 5-1 or something, he goes fairly quickly i think
|
| 2:53 |
David Laurila: Small-ball Tigers. Giving the Guardians a taste of their own medicine.
|
| 2:53 |
Dan Szymborski: If Skubal goes like 110 or so, I think the Tigers try and get him five days rest and not four
|
| 2:54 |
Dan Szymborski: four days rest would allow Skubal to get game 1
|
| 2:54 |
NG3: cue small ball/bunts are how you win narratives
|
| 2:55 |
Alex: Does the ballpark a game is played in impact how enjoyable the game is to watch for everybody? I like the fact we have games at Wrigley field, Yankee Stadium and Dodger Stadium coming up. (I’m from Toronto, so I have an aversion to boring cookie cutter fields)…
|
| 2:55 |
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s REALLY person specific
|
| 2:55 |
Dan Szymborski: on TV it doesn’t really make a difference to me
|
| 2:55 |
STiVo: I know sac bunts are out of favor. But Skubal on the mound, and this CLE offense makes that feel like a much better play than normal
|
| 2:55 |
David Laurila: The Tigers had five sacrifice bunts during the regular season.
|
| 2:55 |
Bosoxforlife: I love squeeze play and wonder why more teams don’t try it, especially in the extra inning game with so many strikeouts with a man on 3rd.
|
| 2:56 |
Dan Szymborski: I think a lot is opportunity cost
|
| 2:56 |
Dan Szymborski: it’s a hard play to pull off and if you’re working on that, what else could you have been working on instead?
|
| 2:57 |
Oddball Herrera: Statcast in game odds seemed to think that the one run for one out trade there was pretty neutral
|
| 2:57 |
Dan Szymborski: always remember though, that it really changes depending on WHO is doing the bunt/squeeze
|
| 2:57 |
Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t take a lot of bunt hits to make the payoff really good
|
| 2:57 |
Dan Szymborski: or a lot of bunt failures to make the payoff horrible
|
| 2:58 |
Guest: McKinstry is such a ‘wins playoff game with squeeze bunt’ type player
|
| 2:58 |
Ineffectively Tame: What are the cats up to Dan?
|
| 2:58 |
Dan Szymborski: three are sleeping becuase dinner was a half hour ago
|
| 2:58 |
Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s meowing at me a ton, which he usually does after I come home after being away for a week
|
| 2:58 |
Guest: Gotta imagine having Skub makes you feel better about trading one sure run for a chance at 2
|
| 2:59 |
David Laurila: Wondering if Skubal is emptying the tank here.
|
| 2:59 |
Raph Fangs: Jeez, Skubal — 101 in the 7th
|
| 2:59 |
Dan Szymborski: Ai but I still like it: 
|
| 3:01 |
Dan Szymborski: 
|
| 3:01 |
lzfreak: You absolutely have to let him at least start the 8th
|
| 3:04 |
Mr Trivia: one more innning for skub ?
|
| 3:04 |
David Laurila: Grady Little comes to mind. Kevin Cash comes to mind.
|
| 3:05 |
 Jon Becker: Howdy everyone! Sporer should be joining in a few mins here but we’ve got simultaneous chaos — Paul and I will be tuned into Padres/Cubs!
|
| 3:06 |
Bosoxforlife: This is baseball as I remember it very fondly. Sandy Skubal mowing down the opposition late into the game, Come on A.J., leave him in.
|
| 3:08 |
Guest: Is it Vest or Finnegan for the 9th?
|
| 3:08 |
David Laurila: Presumably Vest. Whether or not the Tigers still have a lead is another question.
|
| 3:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Hey Jon!
|
| 3:08 |
STiVo: There’s no chaos quite like simultaneous chaos!
|
| 3:09 |
Jon Becker: Was hoping Tigers/Guards would be a little bit of a blowout by now but nope I have to have one eye on that game too
|
| 3:09 |
Go River Cats: Dinner at 230? My cats would wake me up way too early for breakfast if I fed them before 7
|
| 3:10 |
Dan Szymborski: They get wet food at 2:30 or 3, some dry food at 8 PM and 10 AM
|
| 3:10 |
Dan Szymborski: they don’t wake me because I’m not getting them a damn thing when I wake up
|
| 3:11 |
Jon Becker: Shoutout to ESPN for having the other score in the top right of the screen like they had with MNF last night
|
| 3:11 |
Dan Szymborski: For some reason, Sabrowski is always wild as hell when I play him in MLB the Show
|
| 3:11 |
Guest: Late to the party – thoughts on chili cheese dogs?
|
| 3:11 |
Dan Szymborski: Good if not Cincy
|
| 3:12 |
Sonny: No part of me believes Cleveland can score not one but two more runs today. Bring on Cubs v Padres
|
| 3:12 |
Dan Szymborski: I tend to not think of those as traditional hot dog preparations as chili *and* cheese overpowers the dog and maeks it kind of a chili and hot dog dual meal
|
| 3:12 |
Dan Szymborski: I think best hot dog toppings for HOT DOGS have to be condiment related
|
| 3:12 |
Jon Becker: I’ll take onions and mustard over chili and cheese any day
|
| 3:13 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m always afraid to get the chili and cheese in OH because of risk it’s cincy
|
| 3:13 |
Matt: Proper hot dog accoutrements are chili, mustard and onions.
|
| 3:13 |
Dan Szymborski: not kraut?
|
| 3:13 |
Dan Szymborski: :max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/chicago-style-hot-dog-FT-RECIPE0524-3ff9e5b8d0cc41b2bdfa6738d8fca7f5.jpg)
|
| 3:13 |
Dan Szymborski: my favortie “complex” dog
|
| 3:13 |
Jon Becker: I think this will get me kicked out of Chicago but I’m pretty meh on a Chicago dog
|
| 3:14 |
Jon Becker: I can appreciate the flavors but it’s too unwieldy
|
| 3:14 |
Jon Becker: Less is, in fact, sometimes more
|
| 3:14 |
Matt: The best part of being able to bring your own food into Wrigley is that I bring my own chili in a small tupperware and assemble my own chili dogs
|
| 3:14 |
Dan Szymborski: I bring food in my laptop bag all the time, they’re not really strict with press outside of scanning for metal/weapons and such
|
| 3:14 |
Raph Fangs: What, you don’t want a chocolate and nutmeg-based chili?
|
| 3:15 |
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t mind it so much if it were less chocolate forward and more like pasticcio
|
| 3:15 |
Guest: Thoughts on keeping Carpenter in vs the lefty there?
|
| 3:15 |
Jon Becker: Fine with it since they have the lead, and if you’re in an add-on situation later you’d love to have Carpenter against a righty. Now, we return to your regularly scheduled hot dog programming.
|
| 3:15 |
Dan Szymborski: more allspice/clove/cinnamon
|
| 3:15 |
Dan Szymborski: and nto served on the saddest gray “hot dog” or spaghetti
|
| 3:15 |
Sonny: The Cubs haven’t won a World Series since the concession stands switched to a ‘build it yourself’ Chicago dog model and they never will.
|
| 3:16 |
Guest: I burst out laughing after that at bat
|
| 3:16 |
HOT DAWGS:  how many of these have the FG writers had?
|
| 3:17 |
Dan Szymborski: by my count 30
|
| 3:18 |
PCAs stylist: Is “Boyle-can” the proper nickname for Mathew Boyd?
|
| 3:18 |
Ineffectively Tame: Tarik Skubal has allowed six baserunners today. Two of them have been Austin Hedges walks.
|
| 3:18 |
Oddball Herrera: Georgia seems to have misunderstood the hot dog assignment
|
| 3:18 |
Dan Szymborski: the Argentina hot dog is fire
|
| 3:19 |
Dan Szymborski: weirdly, I never had baltimore
|
| 3:22 |
Dan Szymborski: See My Vest but about Will Vest
|
| 3:22 |
STiVo: I’m keeping Skubal in the game there.
|
| 3:22 |
2131, 1312: They have them at Attman’s. Never seen them anywhere else
|
| 3:22 |
Dan Szymborski: I never even noticed it there!
|
| 3:22 |
Bosoxforlife: Yes, he did walk Austin Hedges, but I haven’t seen the slightest dropoff in stuff. May Hinch receive the same treatment from the baseball gods that Cash was slapped with when he pulled Snell, after 73 pitches, in Game 6 of the 2020 WS.
|
| 3:22 |
Jon Becker: eh, pretty big difference to me here, Snell I think faced exactly 18 batters and Skubal got to face 28 with 35 extra pitches
|
| 3:23 |
Dan Szymborski: At Attman’s I get either the reuben or the chopped liver and onions
|
| 3:24 |
Dan Szymborski: OK, LAST OOTP26 key that I have to give out, question in 30 seconds
|
| 3:25 |
Dan Szymborski: I just ran and up-to-date ZiPS projection for Cal Raleigh. How many homers, assuming he stays in Seattle, does ZiPS have remaining for him? Closest guess in 60 seconds gets the key. If you guess twice — I can see IP address — you are disqualified.
|
| 3:26 |
Dan Szymborski: this is CAREER remember
|
| 3:27 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ll allow those that said 0 to get a second guess
|
| 3:27 |
Dan Szymborski: because it’s proper to assume that I’m trolling and it’s a trick quwestion, but it isn’t here
|
| 3:28 |
Dan Szymborski: and time!
|
| 3:28 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says 284
|
| 3:29 |
Dan Szymborski: NG3, let me know if you didn’t get the PM
|
| 3:29 |
Slew(Seattle): 284 career, or *remaining* to be hit in his career?
|
| 3:29 |
Dan Szymborski: “haev remaining!”
|
| 3:29 |
Dan Szymborski: but spelled correctly
|
| 3:29 |
Guest: 7 consecutive strikeouts between the 7th and 8th inning is both quite the sign of the times and awfully representative of these two teams’ construction
|
| 3:29 |
David Laurila: The Guardians don’t strike out a ton. More than anything, today’s Ks were a matter of facing the best pitcher in baseball.
|
| 3:31 |
J: Not sure in what world that’s an error on PCA
|
| 3:31 |
Jon Becker: when the baserunner advances you have to give an error, and I’ve never seen it given to the infielder for not grabbing a short hop
|
| 3:35 |
Jon Becker: Never ceases to amaze me when converted infielders like Merrill (and Tatis!) immediately take to the OF with seemingly no in-game adjustment period needed
|
| 3:37 |
Dan Szymborski: CRY HAVOC
|
| 3:38 |
lzfreak: Dubious first base play in Cleveland today
|
| 3:38 |
David Laurila: Guardians with a hit that nearly made it out of the infield.
|
| 3:39 |
Kyle W: Throw was bad but man you really need your first baseman to dig that one out
|
| 3:43 |
Jon Becker: I think that’s the most ridiculous ending to a playoff game since Brett Phillips’ walk-off in 2020, right?
|
| 3:44 |
Jon Becker: The whole inning, that is
|
| 3:44 |
Lily: What an insane final inning
|
| 3:44 |
David Laurila: Fantastic job by Vest. Outstanding baseball game in terms of drama.
|
| 3:44 |
Paul Sporer: Let’s goooo babyyy!!!
|
| 3:45 |
Jon Becker: Paul told me he’d be here, I quote “ after Cleveland puts together 8 more 17 mph exit velo pieces of $#!+” to beat his Tigers
|
| 3:45 |
David Laurila: That’s it for me chat-wise. Time for a cold drink and some more baseball watching. The postseason is great.
|
| 3:45 |
Jon Becker: so Paul is a liar for showing up at all
|
| 3:45 |
Raph Fangs: Fun start. Let’s go playoffs!
|
| 3:45 |
MattStats5: Now, lets go Cubbies!
|
| 3:46 |
Dan Szymborski: Well, Zim is off!
|
| 3:46 |
Jon Becker: Two Arraez whiffs in a row? Just call this game for the Cubs
|
| 3:46 |
Paul Sporer: LOOOOL making a liar out of me. I shouldn’t be here
|
| 3:47 |
Paul Sporer: Can we just talk about 2 Austin Hedges walks?! I know walks aren’t AVG, but he’s a .185 career hitting who hits .262 v. Detroit somehow!
|
| 3:47 |
Quarantino Martinez: Ok, so we’ve had a PCA error AND an Arreaz swinging k? What the heck is happening?!
|
| 3:47 |
Paul Sporer: Fits w/the Hedges walks… what other insane events could happen today to follow in this line?
|
| 3:47 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Hedges is an all-time OOTP stud, and thus he can do no wrong.
|
| 3:48 |
Paul Sporer: I can’t disagree despite getting annoyed w/him every time the Tigers face the Guards
|
| 3:48 |
Jon Becker: I’m fully expecting Mason Miller to come in throwing knuckleballs at some point, let all the against-type weirdness commence today
|
| 3:48 |
Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL that’d be amazing
|
| 3:48 |
Paul Sporer: Estrada and Miller collect 6 outs w/0 Ks or some shiz
|
| 3:48 |
MattStats5: Since my Orioles died in May, rooting hard for a Tigers-Cubs World Series.
|
| 3:49 |
Paul Sporer: My bias is obvious for my Tigers, but I think that’d be objectively a fun series. While the Tigers obviously melted in September, there’s still plenty of star power to make a run and have appealing storylines if they were somehow able to run that far
|
| 3:49 |
Chris: Al Central baseball is like watching a bunch of teams say “no, YOU win”
|
| 3:49 |
Paul Sporer: Try watching it for 6 months
|
| 3:49 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: I’ve heard it said anecdotally that BA increases by 70 points with the infield in. Does anyone have a study handy? Maybe one that looks at OPS or wOBA instead of BA?
|
| 3:50 |
Paul Sporer: I’ve heard 100 in fact, but also not sure the basis for that. Perhaps Dan would have some insights if he’s still here
|
| 3:50 |
MattStats5: Wait, Paul. Try watching the Orioles for six months…that was a root canal without novocain.
|
| 3:51 |
Paul Sporer: I definitely feel bad for O’s fans bc not only was it bad, but it was a 180 flip v. expectations which made it doubly bad. At least Trevor Rogers was a god, but unfortunately it was all in meaningless ball
|
| 3:51 |
CWess: At least Tarik Skubal was every bit of the Tarik Skubal as advertised. He’s so so good
|
| 3:53 |
Jon Becker: He’s no Skubal, but “amped for the playoffs Nick Pivetta” looks very sharp so far
|
| 3:54 |
Paul Sporer: Had to clock some of my Tigers brethren for trying to put any of the skid’s blame on Skubes. Trying to pretend his bad start at MIA was just 1 part of a bad 2H or some crap as if he didn’t have a 2.48 ERA/1.01 WHIP/23% K-BB in his final 10 starts. Plenty of blame to go around for the Tigers collapse, none of it on his doorstep
|
| 3:54 |
2-out walk: Shoutout to Randy Vasquez (SDP) who threw 134 innings this year with a 3.84 ERA but a SIERA of 5.43. His K-BB% was just 4.6%!
|
| 3:56 |
Paul Sporer: One of my toughest grades on the SP chart every 5th day. Absolutely never felt confident recommending him even as he just kept stringing competent results (read: low ERA) together for nearly 3 mos.
|
| 3:56 |
Kwanbelievable: Kind of ironic that the Guardians got out guards-balled today by the Tigers. Both Detroit runs were the direct result of sloppy defense that a team like Cleveland just can’t afford, and then Detroit executed better with a man on 3rd.
|
| 3:56 |
Kyle W: Extremely funny that the small ball team didn’t bunt once with a runner on third and nobody out.
|
| 3:56 |
Paul Sporer: I was totally in line w/Kyle at how shocking it was that Detroit was the one bunting, not Cleveland!!
|
| 3:58 |
Bencle Mens: Hi Jon, I’ve been meaning to ask Jason about this but I don’t want to forget before the next RR chat. Is it possible to create an “upcoming free agent” page to organize upcoming free agents in future years? Understandably, option years make it less than clean but it would be useful
|
| 3:58 |
Jon Becker: I’ll add it to the wishlist! We love hearing everyone’s ideas
|
| 3:58 |
CWess: Padres are bunting with…Jackson Merrill?
|
| 3:59 |
Jon Becker: Don’t get hitting him cleanup but also not trusting him to swing the bat, unless he did it himself
|
| 3:59 |
Jon Becker: Which, right after I sent that, Kevin Brown said Shildt estimated that he didn’t call for around half of the sac bunts the team laid down
|
| 4:00 |
Paul Sporer: Heck yes, tyvm! I will save that for future citing and stop saying .100 pts.
|
| 4:01 |
Kwanbelievable: It’s easy to second guess now that the decision didn’t work, but why put DeLauter on the roster if you’re not going to play him? 3 different leverage lefty at-bats went to Naylor, Valera, and Kayfus, the math ain’t mathing to me.
|
| 4:01 |
Jon Becker: I can get the logic of not wanting his first PA to be coming off the bench, which he’s not used to (though I agree he’s still probably the best option of the LHH PH), but if he somehow doesn’t start game 2 or 3, I’m right with you
|
| 4:10 |
J: Dansby Swanson my goodness
|
| 4:10 |
MattStats5: Swanson D’ing it up today.
|
| 4:10 |
Paul Sporer: He’s just so damn smooth on defense
|
| 4:13 |
Bosoxforlife: Is everybody as ready for the ABS as I am?
|
| 4:16 |
Raph Fangs: Oh dang, Giolito out for the rest of playoffs — that’s gotta move the needle down a bit more on the Sox’s WS odds
|
| 4:16 |
Jon Becker: A little, though he was having control issues down the stretch and Connelly Early certainly looks the part
|
| 4:18 |
Jon Becker: Maybe would’ve let Boyd go a little longer here but it wasn’t too far away from being a 3-0 game and the Cubs have a good bullpen, too, so
|
| 4:19 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Looking ahead a bit – how do we feel about CIN’s decision to push Lodolo to the pen to give them more lefty innings each game (only other lefty is Suter)? Seems smart if Littell gives them a solid start.
|
| 4:20 |
Jon Becker: I like it a lot, and I think they were also concerned about his ability to hold up for a non-abbreviated start after throwing 26 pitches Sunday, anyway
|
| 4:22 |
Nate: I may be behind, but has anything happened about the Clase and Ortiz betting situations
|
| 4:22 |
Jon Becker: Nope, just continued extending of leave
|
| 4:23 |
Neelix: I would never be comfortable givin Zack Littell a postseason start. 4.88 FIP, 4.50 xERA, 4.40 SIERA Dodgers will smack him around.
|
| 4:23 |
Jon Becker: Yeah even if there was the concern with Lodolo’s stamina (which I share) I would’ve piggybacked him with Chase Burns. That would be a VERY tough adjustment as a hitter.
|
| 4:26 |
Jon Becker: Seiya went from awful to hottest hitter in the NL seemingly overnight, that was roped
|
| 4:29 |
nat: whoa, did you know you can hit the ball right over the wall? guardians take note
|
| 4:29 |
Jon Becker: They didn’t even hit one anywhere near the warning track!
|
| 4:29 |
Jon Becker: Parker Meadows was just chilling in CF all game
|
| 4:32 |
Guest: Cleveland hit more balls that didn’t reach the infield dirt than they hit that reached the outfield
|
| 4:35 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: This is the point where I say something like “BABIP increases at BOTH extremes of the EV spectrum” meaning if you can’t hit it hard, you may as well hit it really, really soft.
|
| 4:36 |
Jon Becker: Right, the whole point of aligning defenses is to defend against the most likely outcomes, which for no hitter is going to include “dribbler into no man’s land” and if Chandler Simpson could put the ball there perfectly every time, they’d start defending against that, too
|
| 4:41 |
Tom G: Doesn’t Palencia usually close for the cubs? Surprised they are doing him now instead of the top of the lineup in the 8th/9th
|
| 4:41 |
Jon Becker: He hasn’t since he was on the IL for a bit with a shoulder strain, been mostly Kittredge or Keller since
|
| 4:42 |
Jon Becker: And I anticipate Palencia, Thielbar, Kittredge, and Keller are the only relievers the Cubs would like to use here to seal a win, barring scoring a bunch of runs
|
| 4:45 |
Phil: Were the Red Sox kind of hoping to lose on Sunday? I wouldn’t blame them for preferring CLE, and de Leon pitched better than he had in Worcester. Weirdly, the Tigers seemed less than engaged, and it was bizaree that they didn’t pitch-hit Greene in a one run game in the 9th.
|
| 4:46 |
Jon Becker: I think they would’ve been more than fine with losing, not sure I’d go so far as to say they were hoping. Every team in the playoffs is tough in their own way
|
| 4:47 |
MattStats5: I’m having pains hearing KB and Ben calling this game…great broadcast team NOT calling an Orioles playoff game.
|
| 4:47 |
Paul Sporer: KB and B Mc had me watching y’all’s games way longer than necessary, really enjoy their broadcasts
|
| 4:55 |
Willie hears ya, Willie dont care: I always LOL whenever outfielders fight the sun on fly balls, only to see their sunglasses on the bill of their cap, or in Happ’s case, behind his head
|
| 4:55 |
Nick Perry: Happ losing ball and making an amazing adjustment. Tough to do with his sunglasses on the back of his head weighing him down
|
| 4:56 |
Jon Becker: Some people say the sunglasses just make it even worse (it makes the sun dimmer but you can’t see anything else, either), not sure I buy that though
|
| 4:56 |
Jon Becker: That said, PCA and Suzuki both had their sunglasses on and made the plays much more easily than Happ did
|
| 4:57 |
Maddy: These low score first games have me thinking. If you’re a low-slug team like the Pads or Brewers, would you care if a close game is like 5-5 versus 1-1 in the 6th inning? Is there something meaningful to say about like, one/both teams hitting hot that day, which meaningfully affects your probability calculations? Like maybe small-ball teams have differently shaped distributions of runs scored than normal (besides just a smaller center), so it’s extra encouraging to see them scoring, even if it’s a tie? Or are these two tie situations basically equal?
|
| 4:57 |
Jon Becker: Oooh this is interesting. My gut would say basically equal, but also a 5-5 game means you’re probably in the bullpen sooner on both sides, so that becomes part of the calculus, too
|
| 5:02 |
Jon Becker: Feels like a violation of the Geneva Conventions or something to force hitters to face Mason Miller in the shadows
|
| 5:05 |
Davy Andrews: Hey everybody! Just filed my Tigers-Guardians gamer and I’m ready to chat.
|
| 5:10 |
Dan: I’m rooting for the Guardians solely for the possibility the Shane Bieber drops 14 scoreless innings on them.
|
| 5:11 |
Jon Becker: Hello Davy!
|
| 5:13 |
Davy Andrews: Hi Jon, how are you doing?
|
| 5:13 |
Mr Trivia: how about kevin brown and ben mcdonald in a national booth??? rare W for ESPN
|
| 5:14 |
Davy Andrews: They are great, and I hope everybody who doesn’t get to hear them on a regular basis really enjoys it.
|
| 5:16 |
small e: On one hand I’m upset they gave Red Sox – Yankees by far the worst of the four ESPN booths, on the other hand it makes simply turning on the radio instead a way easier decision
|
| 5:16 |
PCAs stylist: Counsell is bunting?? Thought he was a modern mgr
|
| 5:16 |
Davy Andrews: Maybe he was watching that Tigers-Guardians game.
|
| 5:17 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: (quick non-playoff question) – What’s more unacceptable: Rockies giving up over 1000 runs scored or only scoring 595 themselves in that ballpark?
|
| 5:17 |
Davy Andrews: The answer to this question is yes.
|
| 5:18 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Kiké Hernandez (who gets the start in LF today) is a career 133 wRC+ hitter in the playoffs versus 91 wRC+ in the regular season. Small sample size, pure chance, signal in the noise, or something else?
|
| 5:20 |
Davy Andrews: I mean, I am legally required to tell you that this is just a small sample size thing. But…I can think of a couple reasons that it might not necessarily be luck.
|
| 5:21 |
Davy Andrews: For example, is all the care and scrutiny that goes into the postseason allowing the Dodgers to put him in more favorable matchups? That’s not necessarily a true talent thing, but it’s also not luck.
|
| 5:21 |
MattStats5: Mr Trivia, I mentioned earlier in the chat….KB and Ben are awesome. We O’s fans listen to them nightly, along with Melanie Newman and Palmer occasionally. Great broadcast team.
|
| 5:22 |
Guy who asks the dinner question: Mike trout has an .083 batting avg in the playoffs. is he just ass?
|
| 5:22 |
Jon Becker: yes
|
| 5:23 |
Davy Andrews: That’s just science.
|
| 5:23 |
MattStats5: Nice answer to that question, Jon. LOL
|
| 5:23 |
Guy who asks the dinner question: is it over padresbros?
|
| 5:25 |
Davy Andrews: Just off the top of my head, I would say that it is 92.9% over.
|
| 5:25 |
Eventually….: …MLB will get it and allow me to upgrade my streaming service that I’ve paid for every year since it started during playoff time, and let me watch postseason baseball, right?
|
| 5:25 |
Davy Andrews: I would not venture to put a probability on that.
|
| 5:26 |
Davy Andrews: WAIT A SECOND. They’re putting Avatar 2 back in theaters?
|
| 5:27 |
Davy Andrews: My wife and I went to see that on a whim. Just as a, “Sure, how bad could it be?” kind of thing.
|
| 5:27 |
Davy Andrews: We were not prepared for the answer to that question.
|
| 5:27 |
Tacoby Bellsbury: Who do we need to kill to get regular Davy chats?
|
| 5:28 |
Davy Andrews: I don’t think murder is the way to get this done.
|
| 5:28 |
Davy Andrews: But I can confirm that I really enjoy the chats.
|
| 5:27 |
Tom Ess: They’re putting a LOT of library content back in cinemas
|
| 5:29 |
Wes: Ok, no murder to get more chats. Which crime would do it? Jaywalking? Retail theft?
|
| 5:30 |
Davy Andrews: I imagine harassment might be most effective. But please don’t do that.
|
| 5:30 |
Guest: Oh man the big pitch clock incident in a playoff game, it’s here
|
| 5:31 |
Davy Andrews: Ok, that seems like a reasonable solution. I don’t know if it hews to the letter of the law, but that would’ve been a really unfair situation.
|
| 5:31 |
Guest: And it is a glorious mess
|
| 5:31 |
Guest: auto strike is wild
|
| 5:31 |
Guest: they should remove the pitch clock in the post season
|
| 5:32 |
Davy Andrews: I go back and forth on this, but I think I disagree. Jon, you have thoughts?
|
| 5:32 |
Guest: Hot take? Your timeout as a batter should just be burned if you still have your timeout and do a violation.
|
| 5:32 |
Davy Andrews: That’s not a crazy idea.
|
| 5:32 |
from chicago radio: “Mike Shildt just ran over as fast as a mid-50s man can go”
|
| 5:33 |
Davy Andrews: Honestly, managers running is one of my favorite things. If FanGraphs would let me do a weekly managers and pitchers trundling out onto the field update, I would absolutely do it.
|
| 5:33 |
Nick Perry: Pitch clock is amazing. Including in the postseason. That was a reasonable resolution
|
| 5:34 |
Jon Becker: That’ll do it for me, everyone, enjoy the rest of the slate tonight!
|
| 5:35 |
Manager Cast: Davy, your idea for managers running update is great, but only with StatCast data
|
| 5:35 |
Davy Andrews: Now we’re cooking.
|
| 5:35 |
Quarantino Martinez: Classic jelly-legging
|
| 5:35 |
Guest: what does ZiPS say the odds of a meteor striking the bronx is
|
| 5:36 |
Davy Andrews: As I almost certainly live within the blast radius, I’m hoping the odds are pretty low.
|
| 5:36 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: The rules should be the same in the regular season and post-season, IMO. It’s my biggest gripe with the Manfred man.
|
| 5:36 |
Wes: I think the pitch clock is even more important during the postseason. I don’t want to watch four 4-hour games per day
|
| 5:36 |
Davy Andrews: I’m glad that you’re happy, Tony.
|
| 5:37 |
Mr Trivia: soooo one battle after another?
|
| 5:38 |
Davy Andrews: I am excited to see it and I have heard great things.
|
| 5:38 |
Davy Andrews: But I’m curious to hear anyone else’s opinion of it. I also invited Matt Martell, our resident cinephile, who is also trying to edit my Tigers-Guards gamer right now, to weigh in, so we’ll see what he has to say.
|
| 5:40 |
eattherich: as a non-Cubs fan, Go Cubs Go is far and away the best win celebration tradition in MLB by a wide margin IMO. It’s a lot of fun to experience in person, and genuinely so wholesome
|
| 5:41 |
Davy Andrews: I’m sure that plenty of industrious Chicagoans have found a way to make it less wholesome.
|
| 5:43 |
Phil: Fun fact: “Go Cubs Go” is by the same guy who wrote “City of New Orleans” (Steve Goodman).
|
| 5:43 |
gonna keep changing my name: I saw One Battle on Sunday at the CityWalk IMAX (major flex for anyone who knows), I’d stop short at calling it a masterpiece but it’s certainly great and worth watching, lots to think about in there
|
| 5:44 |
Quarantino Martinez: One Battle After Another is great! Intense, funny, emotional. A couple of the best chase scenes I’ve ever watched.
|
| 5:44 |
Davy Andrews: I heard the same thing about the chase scenes. I’ve never really been a fan of chase scenes, so I’m curious what makes these ones stand out so much.
|
| 5:45 |
Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, I’m showing up a little early to chat for next game.
|
| 5:46 |
Davy Andrews: Ben is here! Ben! Ben! Ben!
|
| 5:46 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: What’s y’all top 3 post-win team songs? I am obviously partial to “I Love LA”.
|
| 5:46 |
Davy Andrews: I think I don’t know that many post-win songs! Off the top of my head, the only other one I can think of is “New York, New York.”
|
| 5:47 |
Ben Clemens: Ooh. I liked the years when the Yankees were more Empire State of Mind than NY NY, because that was kinda my peak attendance in NY
|
| 5:47 |
Ben Clemens: I want to give a huge shoutout to when the Mets fans keep singing My Girl even after the PA cuts out when Lindor is batting
|
| 5:47 |
Davy Andrews: Yeah, I also made the mistake of hanging around the ballpark for a really long time after the Yankees beat the Orioles in 2012, and hearing it 50 times in a row while so crushingly depressed about the game really soured me on that song forever.
|
| 5:48 |
Phil: Dirty Water is the best song as a song
|
| 5:48 |
Guest: My favorite post-win things are just the eardrum-rattler foghorns that don’t really make a lot of sense to me but they’re loud! And people are loud after a win! Just primal big noise.
|
| 5:48 |
Phil: Tessie (always played right after Dirty Water) is surprisingly decent also.
|
| 5:48 |
Phil: Red Sox are starting one left-handed hitter tonight (Duran). Is this the most extreme lineup in the playoffs? Do Fried’s platoon splits even justify it? Did not have “Nick Sogard starting game 1 in the playoffs) when the season started.
|
| 5:48 |
Ben Clemens: I don’t think anyone is gonna be more extreme than that this year. In fact, the Dodgers aren’t even carrying Michael Conforto, which surprised me. That implies that they’re going to lighten up on platoons significantly.
|
| 5:50 |
Neelix: The last two NYY pitchers to record a win against the Red Sox in the postseason: Masahiro Tanaka and Javier Vázquez.
|
| 5:50 |
Paul Sporer: 2 of my faves from their respective eras
|
| 5:51 |
Davy Andrews: Paul is here too!
|
| 5:51 |
Paul Sporer: Vazquez was an old school horse – 30+ starts in all but 1 of his 14 seasons (26 in that season)
|
| 5:51 |
Guest: To Phil, I think it’s less that Boston is intentionally running some extreme lineup for Max Fried so much as it is their roster encourages platoons and they’re not really a great hitting team in this state. It’s not like they’re benching a Roman Anthony or a Devers.
|
| 5:52 |
Davy Andrews: Yeah. If you follow the Red Sox closely, though, this is a wild spot for them to be in. For the entire offseason and a significant portion of the 2024 season, the battle cry was, “We’re too left-handed!”
|
| 5:52 |
Guest: is j-ram a top 10 player of the decade?
|
| 5:53 |
Davy Andrews: I’ll look up the numbers in a minute, but he has to be, right?
|
| 5:52 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think I concur with this. Weird Sox lineup construction, Wilyer has been ice cold, etc. This is kind of similar to the lineups they’ve been running out recently – because so many of their guys aren’t in there, whether b/c of injury, trade, underperformance
|
| 5:53 |
Paul Sporer: I think so easily re: J-Ram, will be curious what the actual numbers look like
|
| 5:54 |
Davy Andrews: Right. Looks like he’s fourth in total WAR. (I didn’t add up Ohtani’s pitching and batting, but I assume he’s ahead.)
|
| 5:54 |
Wraith: The two best lefty bats the Red Sox are leaving on the bench with this lineup construction are Masataka Yoshida and Nathaniel Lowe and neither of them are really the kind of difference maker you’d be beating yourself up for not starting in this kind of a game to me.
|
| 5:54 |
Mr Trivia: i’d rather walk to irvine than go to the citywalk AMC
|
| 5:56 |
Quarantino Martinez: Especially the final one is unlike anything I’ve seen. Has pieces of Hitchcock (remote setting, simplicity) but with a contemporary thriller intensity, a 70s-ish palette… Really singular.
|
| 5:57 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Is Happ actually a good defender? OAA says he’s average, DRS likes him well enough, he’s got a couple of gold gloves, but the eye test never really bore that out for me…
|
| 5:57 |
Ben Clemens: I think that he was at his peak
|
| 5:57 |
Ben Clemens: And that it was a bit obscured by how much he was switching positions
|
| 5:59 |
Ben Clemens: I ahve thought about him in particular a lot for Fielding Bible voting, and I think I agree that he’s overrated if you think he’s elite. But I do think he’s above average, based on the accumulation of evidence over the years
|
| 5:59 |
Neelix: If you were managing the Yankees tonight, would you go with José Caballero or Ryan McMahon at third base? McMahon can’t hit lefties (44 wRC+) but is a top-5 glove at the position and Max Fried is a groundball guy.
|
| 6:01 |
Davy Andrews: I mean, they have sat him against eight of the last 11 lefties, so that’s certainly not unreasonable.
|
| 6:01 |
Ben Clemens: Davy, how much worse would you expect Caballero to be than McMahon at third?
|
| 6:01 |
Ben Clemens: I thought about it for a while and I’m still not sure
|
| 6:02 |
Davy Andrews: Oh wow, me neither. He has graded out pretty well there!
|
| 6:02 |
Ben Clemens: Like yes, McMahon is good at third. I won’t remotely dispute that. But Caballero is a plus shortstop
|
| 6:02 |
Davy Andrews: Alright, I’m on board, Neelix.
|
| 6:03 |
Nick Perry: 129 WRC+ vs 44 WRC+
|
| 6:04 |
Davy Andrews: To be fair, the career numbers are much closer. 116 vs. 72. Still not close, but much closer.
|
| 6:04 |
Guest: Since the game hasn’t started yet, I do want to ask my off topic question. What’s a good SS comp for Bobby Witt’s career so far? Hanley almost feels like it…young A-Rod? Like both of those guys became power monsters and Witt is for now just the ideal imagined SS. 20-30/30, .300ish, best defender in baseball. And it’s strange to me that I can’t think of an obvious comp for a shortstop like him? Maybe there’s one I’m missing.
|
| 6:04 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I mean it’s not perfect but Young A-Rod is where I am going in my head
|
| 6:05 |
Ben Clemens: Does it all, big frame, you can project more power easily
|
| 6:05 |
Ben Clemens: it’s a little different because he’s also a speedster, but I think that betting on Witt to improve his power output over time would be very wise
|
| 6:06 |
Davy Andrews: Let me hit you with a crazy one just for fun: Maikel Garcia.
|
| 6:06 |
Davy Andrews: (2025 version only.)
|
| 6:07 |
Guest: The problem is of course that by age 27 A-Rod had 6 straight 40 homer seasons (Holy Shit!)
|
| 6:07 |
Nick Perry: ARod did have 42 wins through his age 25 season (including a 9 win season as a 20 year old!)
|
| 6:08 |
Guest: Young Barry Larkin stole 40 in 1988 and went 20/20 in ’91
|
| 6:09 |
Ben Clemens: Right, yeah,A-Rod had one of the best 20’s in baseball history. Witt is great. But A Rod is a level ahead. It’s like, same style, but not as good
|
| 6:09 |
Nick Perry: Young Tulo has a lot a similarities (hopefully Witt doesn’t follow that injury path)
|
| 6:09 |
Ben Clemens: that’s the reason I don’t love the comp
|
| 6:09 |
Davy Andrews: Hey! The baseball’s starting.
|
| 6:09 |
Ben Clemens: let’s gooooooo
|
| 6:09 |
Guest: do you guys play geometry dash
|
| 6:12 |
Davy Andrews: I found this stressful. Also, I died immediately.
|
| 6:10 |
Davy Andrews: Pardon me while I look this up and try it.
|
| 6:10 |
Ben Clemens: This Fried changeup is making me want more lefties in the Boston lineup 😉
|
| 6:11 |
Guest: I see TOR around 48% to win ALDS. I’m curious what you guys have as the series probability for NYY or BOS
|
| 6:12 |
Ben Clemens: Our playoff odds have a ‘make LDS’ field, which has it 57.4/42.6 Yankees edge
|
| 6:13 |
Ben Clemens: That said, I like the ZiPS game-by-game odds more for looking into individual playoff matchups, our system is purposefully generalized and robust, whereas Dan takes advantage of the narrow scope of the playoffs to model specific pitching matchups and team composition
|
| 6:13 |
Ben Clemens: whereas we look at the overall team
|
| 6:13 |
Ben Clemens: and THOSE have it 65/35 NYY
|
| 6:14 |
Guest: BrewJays ws would save vaseball
|
| 6:14 |
Davy Andrews: This would be so fun.
|
| 6:14 |
Nick Perry: 65/35 seems like a lot. Is most of that Rodon > Bello?
|
| 6:15 |
Ben Clemens: Basically no
|
| 6:15 |
Ben Clemens: Per ZiPS, every matchup massively favors the Yankees
|
| 6:15 |
Ben Clemens: RS win probability by game: 42.6%, 40.5%, 36.8%
|
| 6:15 |
Ben Clemens: I think that ZiPS looks at the Red Sox lineup and goes eh, wait, what?
|
| 6:15 |
Ben Clemens: these guys are a playoff team
|
| 6:16 |
Davy Andrews: Can we ask Dan to run it with Nate Eaton pitching instead of playing right field?
|
| 6:16 |
Ben Clemens: But I would imagine that they do not project particularly well given their diminished current state
|
| 6:16 |
Nick Perry: all fair… Crochet isn’t bad though
|
| 6:16 |
Ben Clemens: I mean, I don’t make the odds
|
| 6:16 |
Ben Clemens: and to be honest, it’s not like Dan ‘makes’ the odds either, he trains the model
|
| 6:17 |
Guest: Yankees are favored more in game one than the Dodgers are. Definitely interesting, and seems to run counter to most previews of these series. I assume ZiPS thinks of Judge as Judge when projecting the Yankee offense, and I guess we’ll see
|
| 6:17 |
Ben Clemens: We’re not trying to say that these are perfect reflections of reality, but I’m confident in saying that Dan is working hard at avoiding bias and creating the best odds he can
|
| 6:17 |
Ben Clemens: I’d argue thath probably, things like ‘oh Judge won’t be good in the playoffs b/c of, you know, things’ are more likely to be guilty of bias
|
| 6:18 |
Welland Jackfish: mlb has “The Rivalry” as headline for Yankees-Sox which is just leaning into the East Coast bias
|
| 6:18 |
Ben Clemens: Haha, a)sure but b)I live in SF and I think of this as the biggest baseball rivalry
|
| 6:19 |
Guest: can you run ZiPS for a scenario where Ohtani was on the plane
|
| 6:19 |
Welland Jackfish: I grew up going to Candlestick and am contractually obligated to say Giants/Dodgers is better for most of its history
|
| 6:19 |
Nick Perry: I’ve lived my entire life within an hour of the Pacific Ocean, and yes, this is The Rivalry in baseball
|
| 6:20 |
fried rice: reverse splits for fried each of the last two years… i think the fastball shape is the primary culprit
|
| 6:20 |
Ben Clemens: fastball shape is great, I aree
|
| 6:20 |
Ben Clemens: I think that his extreme variation helps too. Plus the changeup
|
| 6:20 |
Ben Clemens: I mean, Max Fried is just awesome in a lot of ways
|
| 6:21 |
Ben Clemens: That said… the Sox don’t have a lot of great options here. Like, are you dying to have Wilyer Abreu and Nathaniel Lowe in the lineup?
|
| 6:22 |
Leland: Aaron Judge is 1-1 so far in his postseason redemption tour
|
| 6:22 |
Ben Clemens: psh, oh for one on homers
|
| 6:22 |
Davy Andrews: Seriously, 1.000 BABIP much?
|
| 6:23 |
Nick Perry: Crochet vs Fried in game 1 does give some hope to all of us who’s team didn’t make the playoffs… If your team has the best farm system in baseball to trade from and/or can pay market rate for the best starter in free agency
|
| 6:23 |
Ben Clemens: I absolutely love that Fried has ‘sweeper middle/middle’ as an option to righties as his first pitch
|
| 6:24 |
Guest: This game is exactly how we expected it to go between the contact-manager getting a big double play and the strikeout monster racking up the Ks.
|
| 6:25 |
Ben Clemens: Haha yes, just don’t look too closely at the jerseys
|
| 6:26 |
Guest: I remember seeing a theory on reddit that Amy Adams’s character in the Starfighter movie will be the new Mara Jade. Do you think that would be hype?
|
| 6:26 |
Ben Clemens: Okay I waited for a commercial break to click on this one, and honestly I’m a little out of date on my Star Wars knowledge, but I am not optimistic that they’d make Mara Jade as interesting as she was in the EU, so I think I’m against it
|
| 6:26 |
Bosoxforlife: Actually I am very happy to see Refsnyder in the lineup. He absolutely rakes against left handers and is preferable to Yoshida. I am already wondering if he has a spot on the 2026 roster which I am all in favor of.
|
| 6:27 |
Davy Andrews: I agree. I love how well Refsnyder has hit.
|
| 6:28 |
Guest: a Seattle Vancouver rivalry would be better if they actually expanded
|
| 6:28 |
Davy Andrews: I agree with this too. That would be so fun.
|
| 6:29 |
Ben Clemens: I’d be really into it
|
| 6:29 |
Phil: Can we ask non-playoff questions? Wondering about Giolito’s option. I think he hit the innings threshold to get to the 19 million one, which seems a lot for a 2-WAR guy who just posted his lowesr K rate since 2018.
|
| 6:29 |
Davy Andrews: There are no rules here, Phil.
|
| 6:31 |
Guest: I’d really like to see a team score four runs. I like pitching but I miss runs
|
| 6:31 |
Ben Clemens: Let’s give it more than two games, imo
|
| 6:31 |
Ben Clemens: but the postseason is generally lower-scoring, unfortunately
|
| 6:31 |
Guest: are we ready for volpe’s linsanity run
|
| 6:32 |
Davy Andrews: I would love to see people trying to wrap their heads around this.
|
| 6:31 |
Ben Clemens: I sadly don’t know how we’re fixing that
|
| 6:32 |
Guest: Do you all think we’ll see a team score more than three runs by the end of today? Seeming less and less likely as this game goes on…maybe the Reds will get a fourth off Tanner Scott?
|
| 6:33 |
Ben Clemens: now that’s a called shot
|
| 6:33 |
Welland Jackfish: trying to come up with a portmanteau with volpe…
|
| 6:34 |
Ben Clemens: Hmm… he just went medievolpe on that pitch?
|
| 6:34 |
Davy Andrews: I’m so far behind all of you.
|
| 6:34 |
Nick Perry: Guest, are you Nostradamus?
|
| 6:34 |
Guest: guys can I get a job with u for that prediction
|
| 6:34 |
Nick Perry: Volpowerswing?
|
| 6:34 |
Quarantino Martinez: He got volped
|
| 6:35 |
not guest: he volped on him
|
| 6:35 |
Guest: also the obvious decision is volpedoed
|
| 6:35 |
Davy Andrews: Leading contender.
|
| 6:35 |
Bosoxforlife: I hate to see that pitch thrown in The Bandbox in the Bronx. Anything away and up is just asking for trouble.
|
| 6:36 |
Davy Andrews: I don’t think you can just eliminate a whole quadrant of the zone, especially if you have Crochet’s fastball.
|
| 6:36 |
Welland Jackfish: he can volpedo a baseball, but i don’t think we can call the surrounding hype volpedo?
|
| 6:38 |
Lazy: 105 off the bat at 382ft. Miss me w/ that “bandbox” nonsense.
|
| 6:38 |
Pun DMC: Statcast has that as a HR in 29/30 parks, so NOT a Bandbox HR
|
| 6:38 |
Quarantino Martinez: I had a cortizone shot last year. Wish I’d known it could make me a postseason hero. Gotta call my md…
|
| 6:39 |
Ben Clemens: I will say that Yankees RHH’s are well-suited to employ an opposite-field approach, and that there’s some issue with throwing it where they’re looking for it. But also, like, homers happen
|
| 6:39 |
Ben Clemens: and misses, too
|
| 6:40 |
Ben Clemens: so long as your approach is good overall, I’m never too worried about leaving the occasional pitch where you don’t want it
|
| 6:40 |
drplantwrench: breaking angels news that no one asked for – hector gomez is reporting albert pujols will be the new angels manager
|
| 6:41 |
Davy Andrews: I am struggling with how to react to that.
|
| 6:42 |
Ben Clemens: Honestly, I assume that Pujols is a manager that tons of players would love to play for
|
| 6:42 |
Ben Clemens: The man knows a LOT about hitting and longevity
|
| 6:43 |
Ben Clemens: but I have very little idea of how he’ll be able to handle the rest of the job, both because I’m not terribly certain of what the most important skills are and because it seems hard to know without him having any managerial experience
|
| 6:43 |
Davy Andrews: Leones del Escogido would beg to differ.
|
| 6:44 |
Ben Clemens: haha touche. And tbh I think that winter league is probably a good way to break in
|
| 6:44 |
Davy Andrews: I’m mostly with you. Especially on players being psyched to play for him.
|
| 6:44 |
Guest: Pretty sure Pujols is doing the WBC for the DR…? Would he skip Spring Training with his new team? That seems sort of important
|
| 6:46 |
Davy Andrews: Right. I imagine he might have to step down.
|
| 6:46 |
Bosoxforlife: Despite following the game closely I have no idea how he was perceived by his peers while he was playing. He did manage Puerto Rico in the WBC.
|
| 6:46 |
Ben Clemens: Revered to a very high degree
|
| 6:47 |
Bencle Mens: This all means that Pujols is bad for a few years with the Angels before taking over the Cardinals in 2028 after they fire their manager (Yadier Molina) and taking them to the playoffs
|
| 6:47 |
Ben Clemens: I’ve seen a lot of videos of Trout talking about Pujols, it borders on TOO impressed by him
|
| 6:47 |
Welland Jackfish: is Ben chatting for 2 games or is there another West Coast team for Dodgers-Reds?
|
| 6:47 |
Ben Clemens: Nope, my wife and I are heading to a bar to watch b/c she loves a bar full of people yelling BEAT LA
|
| 6:48 |
Ben Clemens: to be fair, I also enjoy that
|
| 6:48 |
Guest: Can I continue my crusade of anger at the standard camera angle for making backdoor sliders/cutters look like whatever instead of awesome pitches
|
| 6:48 |
Ben Clemens: Davy and I are both among the FG writers most likely to agree with you on this
|
| 6:48 |
Ben Clemens: or at least, I think. I love to be a camera angle nerd, and CF is way better than this nonsense offset
|
| 6:48 |
Ben Clemens: the only advantage of the offset is that it can be zoomed in more, but ESPN isn’t even doing that, they’re leaving it wide to capture more ads
|
| 6:49 |
Davy Andrews: I totally agree — watching the pitch move is truly one of the best things about baseball — but I would also note that there isn’t really a perfect camera angle.
|
| 6:49 |
Ben Clemens: My favorite is the slightly up high CF camera
|
| 6:49 |
Ben Clemens: it’s not perfect but like, it’s pretty good
|
| 6:51 |
Davy Andrews: Yeah, but I also find the aesthetics of the Globe Life Field angle really unpalatable for some reason.
|
| 6:51 |
Ben Clemens: I think that might ahve to do with the stadium
|
| 6:51 |
Ben Clemens: but it’s true, nothing’s perfect
|
| 6:51 |
Davy Andrews: I’m sure it is.
|
| 6:51 |
Ben Clemens: I just hate when righty breaking balls look bad
|
| 6:51 |
Colton: I liked the new angle in Cincy this year a lot
|
| 6:52 |
Guest: Second question on stadium aesthetics: Dark blue or dark green walls
|
| 6:53 |
Davy Andrews: That’s a great question!
|
| 6:53 |
Bencle Mens: They should have two offset angles, depending on pitcher handedness
|
| 6:53 |
Davy Andrews: This sounds reasonable, but then you play Bases Loaded 4 and you realize that it’s really jarring to move back and forth like that.
|
| 6:53 |
Nick Perry: What is the definition of “just missed it”? Is it the follow through? Is it the ball flight? Is it pitch location? Is it batter reaction? What % of each
|
| 6:54 |
Ben Clemens: My view is that it’s basically just ‘that was a good looking swing but the ball got popped up’
|
| 6:54 |
Ben Clemens: hit it but it doesn’t go far? probably just missed it
|
| 6:54 |
Davy Andrews: Right. I suppose it could be any of those things for different people, but I definitely mean how the ball comes off the bat.
|
| 6:55 |
Bhaim Cloom: red sox lineup sure could use nolan arenado
|
| 6:55 |
Welland Jackfish: who had Paul Goldschmidt as a playoff leadoff hitter on their bingo card?
|
| 6:55 |
Davy Andrews: These two back to back really tickled me.
|
| 6:55 |
Ben Clemens: maybe you could measure it in something about squared up rate
|
| 6:55 |
Davy Andrews: Oh yeah, you totally could. Like 75 to 80% collision efficiency?
|
| 6:55 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah. I think that’s close to what we’re all saying
|
| 6:56 |
Ben Clemens: Boy that Fried changeup is amazing
|
| 6:56 |
Davy Andrews: I don’t know. From this camera angle, it doesn’t look like much…
|
| 6:56 |
Ben Clemens: Look at that smooth Caballero glovework, I love it
|
| 6:57 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: ok I was just made aware of this absolutely unhinged Shohei use case scenario: he starts at P, goes 5 IP, transitions to DH, then comes BACK out in the 9th to close. Apparently, perfectly legal.
|
| 6:57 |
Ben Clemens: okay this might be crazier than the Pujols managerial news
|
| 6:57 |
Ben Clemens: that kind of implies that he could pitch the first 5, the 7th, and the 9th?
|
| 6:58 |
Davy Andrews: Is the goal here to see how fast you can get him back onto an operating table?
|
| 6:57 |
Davy Andrews: I take issue with Ravech saying Fried “induced” a groundball from Romy Gonzalez. Romy Gonzalez just hits the ball on the ground.
|
| 6:58 |
Bosoxforlife: We are watching a master at work. This is a pitcher in the truest sense of the word, not just a guy who can throw it past everybody.
|
| 6:58 |
Colton: What’s the list of most fun pitchers to watch? Fried has to be in the top 5 for me
|
| 6:59 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I like guys of this general style. Cris Sanchez, Logan Webb, Fried, honestly Skenes is so fun because he’s a power pitcher who is also a command guy
|
| 7:00 |
Davy Andrews: Right. And I love a fun arm angle.
|
| 7:00 |
Davy Andrews: Man, lots of foul tips into the catchers’ faces. I do not love it.
|
| 7:01 |
Guest: See I love watching Kevin Gausman pitch because it’s just like an endless coin flip
|
| 7:02 |
Davy Andrews: I also think splitters are just fun to watch.
|
| 7:02 |
Raph Fangs: Who is the most surprising (in the abstract, so discounting matchups, injuries, etc.) player to be in a starting lineup today? And how is it not Nate Eaton?
|
| 7:02 |
Davy Andrews: Ralph submitted this 20 minutes ago. Props.
|
| 7:02 |
Guest: maybe we don’t need Nate eaton to pitch
|
| 7:02 |
Davy Andrews: Strongly disagree.
|
| 7:02 |
Phil: Eaton and Sogard leading the offense.
|
| 7:03 |
Davy Andrews: That’s how you draw it up.
|
| 7:03 |
Guest: But fouling it back is usually referred to as just missed and that’s almost missing the entire ball. Sam Miller said something once about how it was about the angle – you don’t call grounders just missing even if you square it up into the dirt. It’s about being under the ball and hitting it with the fat part of the bat
|
| 7:04 |
Davy Andrews: Sure, but that’s about timing. Usually, what people say about that is some variation of, “He was right on it.” There’s more than one way to just miss it.
|
| 7:04 |
Ben Clemens: I do agree that it has to be in the air, though
|
| 7:04 |
Ben Clemens: so maybe it’s a combination of in the air and hit square but not fully square
|
| 7:05 |
Ben Clemens: Do you guys think that Max Fried has never fist pumped before?
|
| 7:05 |
Davy Andrews: I disagree! I think you can pound it into the ground because you were just a little bit early. That may be something that you feel as a hitter and is a little harder to see as a spectator.
|
| 7:05 |
Ben Clemens: that had real baby giraffe energy
|
| 7:06 |
Davy Andrews: It’s never too late to learn.
|
| 7:06 |
Guest: That ESPN mic is hanging on for dear life
|
| 7:06 |
Davy Andrews: Is everyone else hearing constant crackling?
|
| 7:06 |
Ben Clemens: yeah, it’s super annoying
|
| 7:07 |
Davy Andrews: I like to think the noise is just because Ravech and Perez are sharing a big bag of peanuts.
|
| 7:07 |
Ben Clemens: it’s the spotters running back and forth to them with notes stepping on the shells
|
| 7:08 |
Bencle Mens: Why does Baseball Savant use “ST” to abbreviate “sweeper”?
|
| 7:08 |
Ben Clemens: I don’t know but I doooooo not like
|
| 7:09 |
Welland Jackfish: in the earlier game we celebrated more people getting to hear the orioles broadcast team- who should replace ravech and perez to get more national exposure?
|
| 7:09 |
Ben Clemens: just a quick note that yeah, more Ben McDonald please
|
| 7:10 |
Ben Clemens: Honestly, I think that the average booth has gotten pretty great
|
| 7:10 |
Ben Clemens: I very rarely listen to a game these days and go ‘ugh, these guys?’
|
| 7:10 |
Ben Clemens: there are a few, but I won’t name names. Mostly, though, I think that around 20 booths would be great doing this
|
| 7:10 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Per Tom Tango – From Tom Tango: “In the backlog was a Slider/Cutter (ST) and Slider/Curve (SV). Those were around for years. Ideally, we would have had SW already in the backlog. Rather than create a new code, we activated an existing one.”
|
| 7:11 |
Ben Clemens: Hear me out – just do a post-processing pass on this. The code is ST in the database but it shows to us plebs as SW. I mean, I don’t find this a huge issue b/c the only people nerdy enough to be in the data files are the ones who can figure it out, but it just seems like low-hanging fruit
|
| 7:10 |
Davy Andrews: I totally agree. I avoid a lot fewer booths than I used to.
|
| 7:11 |
Bencle Mens: ^^^^Ben showing Ben-bias
|
| 7:11 |
Welland Jackfish: I’m very glad that Joe Buck decided to focus on his true love of handegg
|
| 7:11 |
Davy Andrews: I published this even though I do not know what it means. Probably shouldn’t get in the habit of doing that.
|
| 7:12 |
Guest: now that it is commercial time, when will you guys start watching hockey
|
| 7:12 |
Davy Andrews: I would love to get into hockey, but it has not happened yet.
|
| 7:13 |
Ben Clemens: Hey guys, now that we’re at a commercial break, Davy and I have two copies of OOTP26 to give away, one each, and I’d like to give mine to the person who comes up with the best (family-friendly) nickname for a player in the playoffs
|
| 7:13 |
Ben Clemens: I’ll stop taking submissions after the bottom* half of this inning
|
| 7:13 |
Ben Clemens: but if you’re interested in trying out my favorite baseball simulation game there is, it can be yours for free
|
| 7:14 |
Nick Perry: Nice for the hollywood execs to time the Springsteen biopic to come out so all the traveling baseball writers have something to do on day off between World Series game 2/3
|
| 7:16 |
Davy Andrews: I should note that I finally got really into Springsteen like the exact second that FanGraphs brought me on full-time. It is a natural law.
|
| 7:16 |
Ben Clemens: I’m sorry to say that I’m not really into him
|
| 7:17 |
Ben Clemens: That said, I am not yet a BBWAA member. So perhaps it comes with a membership
|
| 7:17 |
Welland Jackfish: Blue Jays pitcher Trey Yes, Savage is already a nickname with just what his parents gave him
|
| 7:17 |
Guest: Jeff blowsgamesintheninthinningfornoparticularreason. If I win (I will) just donate it to a kid at shriners or smth I already have ootp26 lmao
|
| 7:18 |
RTJ: My hottest take is that games are too fast. It’s one thing to speed up mid-june games that are 11-2 between the rockies and the pirates, but I want to be able to savor a yanks sox game- nothing like a 4.5 hour 2-1 slog in October
|
| 7:18 |
Ben Clemens: Starting off with a strong showing from our northern neighbors
|
| 7:19 |
Davy Andrews: I think this is a perfectly valid opinion. Sometimes it really does feel like you looked away for a second and half the game just disappeared.
|
| 7:19 |
Ben Clemens: it’s funny, though, you would have really disliked baseball for the vast majority of its history if you’re hoping for 4 hour games
|
| 7:20 |
Ben Clemens: i’m not really sure what the right answer is, but I don’t think the natural state of the world is these super super super long games where pitchers just don’t throw the ball
|
| 7:21 |
Ben Clemens: like, I HATED old NYY/BOS games because they’d start late, and good luck working the next morning (I lived in NY and had early morning hours back then)
|
| 7:21 |
Phil: Having finally played a full season, I think Trevor Story is ready to be promoted to Trevor Novella.
|
| 7:21 |
RTJ: you should be required to not throw a pitch while I go to the kitchen to stir the pasta for dinner
|
| 7:22 |
Ben Clemens: Now, that argument I could get behind
|
| 7:22 |
Ben Clemens: Let’s just make sure to sync up our pasta stirring
|
| 7:22 |
Raph Fangs: Romy “Oh, and Juliet” Gonzalez
|
| 7:22 |
Ben Clemens: okay I laughed a lot at this one
|
| 7:22 |
Davy Andrews: Oh yeah, this is great.
|
| 7:23 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: I also have OOTP26, but for some reason my Rockies 2025 rebuild was like, orders of magnitude easier than my White Sox 2022 rebuild. Make it make sense.
|
| 7:23 |
Ben Clemens: I like exclusively rebuild the Rockies when I play OOTP these days
|
| 7:23 |
Ben Clemens: maybe the budget is the reason it’s easier than it feels like it should be? I dunno
|
| 7:25 |
Guest: What do you all think of the 1pm, 3pm, 6pm, 9pm start times for the Wild Card round? Feels like midday games are missing out on some
|
| 7:25 |
Ben Clemens: I think they’re kinda weird!
|
| 7:25 |
Ben Clemens: I think I’d prefer like 1:30, 3:30, 5:30, 7:30
|
| 7:25 |
Ben Clemens: or mayyyyyybe 8
|
| 7:25 |
Ben Clemens: the first game is too early and the last game is too late, basically
|
| 7:26 |
Guest: the 1pm games are hype tho, I remember back in grade 4 our teacher pirated the jays games during the 2015 run, and we would all watch that instead of actually learning
|
| 7:27 |
Bosoxforlife: It is definitely going to be tough to make it through the Dodgers-Reds game here on the east coast.
|
| 7:28 |
Ben Clemens: I think I somehow agree with both these takes
|
| 7:28 |
Ben Clemens: the 1pm game does give a bit of a march madness feeling
|
| 7:28 |
Ben Clemens: but I think that 1:30 would probably feel similar
|
| 7:28 |
RTJ: speaking of Crochet, who are the top 3 leg-kickers in baseball right now?
|
| 7:28 |
Ben Clemens: Davy, I’m almost certain you’d be better suited to answer this question than me, but I assume Skubal is number one
|
| 7:29 |
ayeff: Matthew Boyd has a fancy-boy leg kick
|
| 7:29 |
Guest: Does Kwan count for the leg kickers thing?
|
| 7:29 |
Welland Jackfish: Gausman’s is a bit weird because he makes a little triangle at the end, but before that he gets it up there
|
| 7:30 |
Raph Fangs: Red Sox radio update: Lou Merloni is on his fourth coffee. Look out.
|
| 7:30 |
Ben Clemens: Lou Merloni reference on the broadcast too
|
| 7:31 |
JV: Tarik Skeubalmorphism
|
| 7:31 |
Ben Clemens: alright, one last call for nicknames during the commercial break and then I’ll hand somebody a code
|
| 7:31 |
muxosk: This nickname thing is tough, best I’ve got is “blech, snail” which is too mean to a great hurler imo
|
| 7:32 |
Welland Jackfish: having performed in R+J in college (as the prince of verona, basically narrator), I am happy to concede nicknames to Romy Oh and Juliet. That’s great
|
| 7:32 |
Finnegan’s SSW: Myles Straw: The Scarecrow (a straw man)
|
| 7:33 |
Ben Clemens: ooh, another good one
|
| 7:33 |
Ben Clemens: and coming from “Finnegan’s seam-shifted wake” no less
|
| 7:33 |
Guy who asks the dinner question: Tommy edmantium
|
| 7:33 |
Davy Andrews: I’m sorry I missed the leg kick question! My wife just got home and we are heating up dinner. Crochet’s leg kick is absolutely way up there.
|
| 7:34 |
Davy Andrews: I remember when the Red Sox got him there were very few pictures of him in the photo service that all the baseball sites use, so you’d just see this one picture with his knee right up by his face in every single article.
|
| 7:34 |
Davy Andrews: It was a delight.
|
| 7:34 |
Ben Clemens: alright, let’s call it a contest
|
| 7:34 |
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna concur with Davy and be right back
|
| 7:34 |
Guest: Crochet: Big Leg Kick
|
| 7:35 |
Ben Clemens: alright, winner is Romy “Oh, and Juliet” Gonzalez, in a landslide as it turns out
|
| 7:35 |
Ben Clemens: (one brief break to answer a real question)
|
| 7:35 |
Dmytro: What is generally more important for platoon splits, the hitter’s or pitcher’s? Or it depends?
|
| 7:36 |
Ben Clemens: almost exclusively
|
| 7:38 |
muxosk: Top of zone curves seem brutal to call correctly
|
| 7:39 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah, agreed
|
| 7:39 |
Ben Clemens: I think that’s gonna be a hard thing to get used to in the automatic zone
|
| 7:42 |
Raph Fangs: Big for the Sox if they can get into the Yanks bullpen in the 6th
|
| 7:42 |
Ben Clemens: Hey guys, had to step off for a second but I’m back while Davy steps off
|
| 7:42 |
Ben Clemens: teamwork makes the dreamwork
|
| 7:42 |
Ben Clemens: maybe the bullpens are the way to make these games high scoring
|
| 7:42 |
Welland Jackfish: Has anyone assigned Lou Merloni’s partner Will Flemming to a national game yet? His brother Dave is great and last year they called innings together when the Giants played the Red Sox
|
| 7:42 |
Ben Clemens: Not that I’ve seen, but the Flemming brother broadcasts are always great
|
| 7:43 |
Ben Clemens: they soudn so similar!
|
| 7:43 |
Nick Perry: top and bottom of the zone so much harder to adjust to with coming ABS/challenge and the east/west edges
|
| 7:43 |
Ben Clemens: yeah, absolutely. The hardest things to adjust to, in my opinion, are gonna be the top edges, and the different lefty/righty zones
|
| 7:43 |
MattStats5: Love a good pitching duel, but Red Sox left some juice on the squeeze so far.
|
| 7:43 |
Ben Clemens: Quite a bit. Honestly, I think that’s been a lot of the story of the day
|
| 7:43 |
Ben Clemens: the pitching is really good, as it should be with all these aces going, but the hitters are leaving a bit of meat on the bone
|
| 7:45 |
MattStats5: Yep, meat on the bone, juice on the squeeze….just words. But all true.
|
| 7:45 |
Ben Clemens: delicious words
|
| 7:45 |
Guest: I feel like a reds sweep would be the funniest thing ever, can we please manifest it
|
| 7:45 |
Ben Clemens: I wrote my preview as a ‘how the reds can upset the dodgers’ because neutral fans are all kinda hoping for it
|
| 7:45 |
Guest: Do the Sox stretch Crochet to 7 if he has say 95 pitches through 6
|
| 7:46 |
Ben Clemens: I would attempt to, but only if I’d discussed it with him first
|
| 7:46 |
Ben Clemens: Honestly, Im almost positive he’d want to
|
| 7:46 |
Guest: If Boston is losing they should probably stretch Crochet and save their leverage arms, if they’re winning you might go to Whitlock (I assume)
|
| 7:47 |
Guest: Can’t imagine an ace not wanting to stay in his first playoff game, especially with the rivalry
|
| 7:47 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think he should just stay in
|
| 7:47 |
Welland Jackfish: did the mlb.com stringer call it right that caballero flied out SHARPLY? Did I read an article on that earlier this year?
|
| 7:47 |
Ben Clemens: as I understand it, sharply means 100mph+
|
| 7:47 |
Ben Clemens: But that one was sharp, 105 to the wall
|
| 7:47 |
Phil: Crochet is not going to want to come out, and he’s a lot bigger than Cora.
|
| 7:47 |
Ben Clemens: now i LOVE that
|
| 7:48 |
RTJ: do you know how teams leverage stat cast data to evaluate whether the pitcher is tired?
|
| 7:49 |
Ben Clemens: I don’t know the particulars, but I know that you can use it to look at movement and velo
|
| 7:49 |
Ben Clemens: you may be able to link it up with stuff they already have about intent and location
|
| 7:49 |
Ben Clemens: like, they should theoretically have more data than I do, because they know what was supposed to happen
|
| 7:49 |
Welland Jackfish: would mlb website ever do native EV/launch angle/ distance in the gameday text?
|
| 7:49 |
Ben Clemens: it’s tehre, ish
|
| 7:49 |
Ben Clemens: if you click on the play
|
| 7:50 |
Appa Yip Yip: When the ABS system is introduced it’s going to be really interesting to see which hitters have the green light to challenge and which hitters do not. My Jays prediction: green light, Alejandro Kirk. Red light? Vlad Jr. He’ll use both challenges in his first at bat every game because he’s too exuberant.
|
| 7:50 |
Ben Clemens: I’m very excited to see this
|
| 7:50 |
Ben Clemens: I also really want to know who’s good
|
| 7:50 |
Ben Clemens: Luckily, Tango is also very intersted in this and I’m certain that Statcast will have a leaderboard ready
|
| 7:50 |
Guest: Crochet got his extension, so he’s presumably willing to pitch in the playoffs now.
|
| 7:52 |
Ben Clemens: I mean, I supported his decision last year
|
| 7:52 |
Ben Clemens: and I think that he has always said he wants to pitch as long as he can
|
| 7:52 |
Ben Clemens: like, he could have easily asked for more load management htis year, the Sox would have agreed to protect their investment
|
| 7:52 |
Ben Clemens: but he wants to pitch
|
| 7:52 |
Guest: The only prediction I have about ABS challenges is that some team is going to get busted after a few years for using some kind of communication system from a replay room that tells a hitter when to challenge
|
| 7:52 |
Ben Clemens: ooh, this is a good prediction
|
| 7:53 |
Ben Clemens: but I do wonder if they’ll remove the boxes on TV broadcasts
|
| 7:53 |
RTJ: when will riders stop sliding into first when there is a foot race
|
| 7:53 |
Ben Clemens: I mean…. probably never. I think it’s just instinctual
|
| 7:53 |
Ben Clemens: It’s not always wrong, it’s just most always wrong
|
| 7:54 |
Guest: i think they are planning to remove the boxes for that reason
|
| 7:54 |
Dirt: Diving in like that also helps avoid a collision
|
| 7:54 |
Guest: sliding into first might not be faster but it certainly *feels* faster
|
| 7:55 |
Guest: “Not a bad postseason debut for Max Fried” yeah I guess if you don’t count his 67 innings in the postseason over the last decade
|
| 7:55 |
Ben Clemens: Yankees is life
|
| 7:56 |
Welland Jackfish: old story, can’t verify: Bill Klem told a pitcher “When you throw a strike, Mr. Hornsby will let you know”
|
| 7:56 |
Welland Jackfish: Hornsby and Ted Williams would have challenged violently i think
|
| 7:56 |
Ben Clemens: “Well, Mr. Williams didn’t think it was a strike”
|
| 7:56 |
Phil: So, who’s the first Sox lefty to come in–Masa or Abreu? Or is Masa going to be held for Refsnyder?
|
| 7:57 |
Ben Clemens: probably they’ll hold Masa for Refsnyder, I think that given the close score, the leverage isn’t that different so you might as well keep the positions clean
|
| 7:57 |
Guest: Are these “ominous two-strike noises” over the PA something that we really need?
|
| 7:57 |
Ben Clemens: I think it would just be more important to pick good ones
|
| 7:58 |
Ben Clemens: Darth Vader breathing isn’t bad for the Yankees, imo
|
| 7:58 |
Ben Clemens: oh hey, guy who asks the dinner question, can you ask a question real quick?
|
| 7:58 |
Phil: Is this Darth Vader sound effect for Luke Weaver? Is the suggestion that Luke is secretly on the dark side?
|
| 7:58 |
Ben Clemens: I think it’s for all Yankees
|
| 7:58 |
Ben Clemens: Jaws music is another popular one
|
| 7:59 |
Well-Beered Englishman: To the Darth Vader point, I’ve heard from friends that Yankee Stadium has the loudest PA system/sound effects
|
| 7:59 |
Ben Clemens: I’ll skip my detailed description of why I prefer Citi to Yankee Stadium this time, since I’ve bored people with it enough already
|
| 7:59 |
Ben Clemens: but yeah, I prefer Citi
|
| 8:00 |
Guest: Ben, how do I convince my cousin, who lives in Seattle, is Canadian, and has a red-sox diehard for a dad to not cheer for the dodgers
|
| 8:00 |
Ben Clemens: oooh…. I mean, there’s nothing wrong with rooting for the Dodgers
|
| 8:00 |
Ben Clemens: there are plenty of teams I’d root for the Dodgers against (I mean, I don’t “root” that much, but obviously I’m not 100% impartial)
|
| 8:00 |
Ben Clemens: but the Reds? not them
|
| 8:01 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: there is certainly a stadium PA decibel cold war going on right now
|
| 8:01 |
Davy Andrews: Hello, I have returned. Citi is vastly superior to Yankee Stadium.
|
| 8:02 |
Davy Andrews: What did you guys do with Max Fried?
|
| 8:02 |
Guest: is nick sugared really that guy
|
| 8:02 |
Ben Clemens: ooh, nick sugared is a new one
|
| 8:02 |
Ben Clemens: new late entrant!
|
| 8:02 |
Davy Andrews: That is good. I bet he’s super smooth.
|
| 8:02 |
Well-Beered Englishman: Can’t believe Eric Sogard switched to contact lenses
|
| 8:02 |
Guest: #baserunningwinsgames
|
| 8:03 |
robertobeers: Playing like April 2019 Eric Sogard
|
| 8:03 |
Tom G: Face of MLB Eric Sogard
|
| 8:04 |
Ben Clemens: April 2019 was the first time I wrote for FanGraphs and I was like uh what
|
| 8:04 |
Guest: classic yankees bullpen lol
|
| 8:04 |
RTJ: I wonder if it would have been bad to leave Fried in another two batters
|
| 8:04 |
Davy Andrews: Great for Masa. He got a raw deal this year. And poor Max Fried.
|
| 8:04 |
Guest: ashamed to get out exclamationed by Phil
|
| 8:04 |
Phil: I am pretty sure Eric and Nick Sogard are two different people. Not totally sure, but pretty sure.
|
| 8:05 |
Ben Clemens: Phil is just an elite exclaimer
|
| 8:05 |
Davy Andrews: No one knows.
|
| 8:05 |
robertobeers: Masa showing up like April 2019 Eric Sogard
|
| 8:05 |
Davy Andrews: This made me laugh.
|
| 8:05 |
Pun DMC: If only someone had told me that the Yankees weak point is their bullpen
|
| 8:06 |
The M’s only win when I’m abroad: Checking back in to see Yankees fans lose their mind how Aaron Boone is the devil
|
| 8:06 |
Guest: So then the question is, do you take out Crochet if you’re Boston?
|
| 8:06 |
Guest: Is there some rhyme or reason in getting comments past the moderation? I didn’t say anything offensive, I promise!
|
| 8:07 |
Ben Clemens: Everything goes to mod so that Davy and I can click on questions to answer them
|
| 8:07 |
Ben Clemens: but sometimes we just get caught in the crush
|
| 8:07 |
Davy Andrews: Yeah, we are to blame here.
|
| 8:09 |
Davy Andrews: As someone who read chats religiously for many years, I tend toward trying to publish anything that’s not offensive, but you also try to keep themes and conversations going, not to publish too many things by any one person. Just logical stuff to try to make the chat engaging.
|
| 8:07 |
Guest: Imo the red sox and yankees should battle hard for a three game series and both use all of their best relievers. Hopefully lots of extra innings.
|
| 8:07 |
Ben Clemens: an unbiased, neutral take
|
| 8:08 |
Opifijikl: Hey you all were right that the Sox needed to get to the Yankees bullpen! Great game by fried though.
|
| 8:09 |
Ben Clemens: Poor Fried, I’m picturing him hitting the dugout to quickly change his shirt and coming back like DOnald Glover in Community
|
| 8:09 |
drplantwrench: personally i think both the yankees and red sox should forfeit
|
| 8:09 |
Ben Clemens: another unbiased, neutral take
|
| 8:09 |
Bencle Mens: Yankees bullpen cursed
|
| 8:09 |
Guest: The Yankees going all-in at the deadline to shore up an already-good bullpen only to have the bullpen turn into a dumpster fire is one of my favorite, funniest storylines of the season
|
| 8:09 |
Guest: Cruz going to shut this down. Source: I can’t hit off him in MLB the show
|
| 8:10 |
MattStats5: I’m an Orioles fan, so I’m totally unbiased and neutral. These first three games have been fire.
|
| 8:10 |
Go River Cats: Has anyone asked Davy about his performance in the EW bold predictions game? Maybe he shows up as a guest predicter next year?
|
| 8:11 |
Davy Andrews: You are the first person to ask, but I am very proud. I have no idea whether other FG writers participated, but I’m going to tell myself that they did because it makes me feel good.
|
| 8:11 |
Ben Clemens: ooh how’d you do Davy?
|
| 8:11 |
Davy Andrews: I am currently in seventh!
|
| 8:11 |
Ben Clemens: I think I didn’t do ALL that well on mine this year, but both “White Sox to lead ALC for a day” and “bears/cubs” were really fun for me
|
| 8:12 |
Davy Andrews: I think I gave the Sox one 0%.
|
| 8:12 |
Ben Clemens: Davy it was SO close
|
| 8:12 |
Welland Jackfish: what’s bears/cubs?
|
| 8:12 |
Ben Clemens: I predicted that the Cubs would double up on the Bears in September (runs vs. points)
|
| 8:12 |
Ben Clemens: I was like, super wrong
|
| 8:12 |
Ben Clemens: but it was fun to follow
|
| 8:12 |
Bencle Mens: Actually, thinking about it, I think it is: New York City bullpens cursed
|
| 8:13 |
Guest: I mean, the bullpen imploding literally immediately after the starter leaves almost seems scripted for narrative writing. Like, it’s almost comical
|
| 8:13 |
Guest: You’re offered $10 million to take a walk, steal a base, or get a hit in an MLB game over the course of a month. The manager is in on it and wants you to get the money but no one else knows. Which option do you choose?
|
| 8:13 |
Davy Andrews: The walk, 100%.
|
| 8:13 |
Ben Clemens: ooh. I might be on steal a base
|
| 8:13 |
Ben Clemens: I think I’d look so uncomfortable in the box that thye’d just pour it in
|
| 8:14 |
Davy Andrews: Sure, but it depends a lot who “they” is.
|
| 8:14 |
Ben Clemens: hm….. well…. can I pinch run?
|
| 8:14 |
Guest: I think we may all be underestimating the speed of even the slowest MLB players, stealing a base is really hard!
|
| 8:15 |
Ben Clemens: I did the math on this a few years ago, and at the time, Ji-Man Choi was about as fast as, in my description, ‘the fastest kid at your high school growing up’
|
| 8:15 |
Timbo: Is there a way to see catch probability on a recent play? That play be Judge did not look that hard and the announcers went wild
|
| 8:15 |
Ben Clemens: catch probability on that one is gonna be high. The reason it was a tough catch (and I think so too) is that it was right at him so kinda turned him around. Catch probability doesn’t consider that.
|
| 8:15 |
Phil: If the manager is in on it, I’d ask him to let me pinch run in a blowout. No one would expect the steal. Then I’d get beaned if I ever came to the plate of course.
|
| 8:15 |
MattStats5: Baseball is hard…that’s why we’re all here chatting.
|
| 8:15 |
Guest: steal a base is my answer, I think there’s more opportunity for the opponents to screw something up (which is what it would take)
|
| 8:16 |
Raph Fangs: Playoff baseball rocks. That is all.
|
| 8:16 |
Ben Clemens: My friend, it sure does
|
| 8:16 |
Bosoxforlife: Does Crochet come out for one more inning? To pitch or not to pitch, that is the question.
|
| 8:16 |
Ben Clemens: I’ve had it on all day and it’s so fun
|
| 8:16 |
Ben Clemens: (baseball, that is)
|
| 8:16 |
Davy Andrews: I’m sorry, is the bumper music here an orchestral version of In Da Club?
|
| 8:17 |
Ben Clemens: I was thinking the same thing, lol
|
| 8:17 |
Davy Andrews: I hope Jesús Luzardo is watching, because it is, in fact, his birthday.
|
| 8:18 |
Phil: The problem with the walk is that I’d bail so hard on inside pitches that the ump wouldn’t call them.
|
| 8:18 |
Davy Andrews: Nah, the Statcast zone took care of stuff like that. They can’t penalize catchers for big obvious frames or batters for bailing out. It would crush their grades.
|
| 8:18 |
Go River Cats: Smoky Joe Wood mention!
|
| 8:18 |
RTJ: before we get caught up in the end of the game chaos and end of the chat for the day – just want to say i love these live game chats – really is nice to chat with a community of people who view baseball through the same filters
|
| 8:19 |
Davy Andrews: I love them too.
|
| 8:19 |
Guest: Will this chat be continuing for the game tonight
|
| 8:19 |
Ben Clemens: It will not be
|
| 8:19 |
Ben Clemens: We used the entire stable of chatters already
|
| 8:19 |
Davy Andrews: Wait, I though Eric was supposed to jump on soon!
|
| 8:20 |
Ben Clemens: he is, but for the end of this one
|
| 8:20 |
Phil: Crochet does not look takeoutable right now.
|
| 8:20 |
Guest: do you think crochet stays in for 1 more
|
| 8:20 |
Guest: …Crochet for the 8th?
|
| 8:20 |
Wes: Crochet is really stitching up the Yankees
|
| 8:20 |
Ben Clemens: haha I love it
|
| 8:21 |
Davy Andrews: Really tying them in knots was right there.
|
| 8:21 |
Davy Andrews: There’s a way to get the word hook in there too, but I don’t have it yet.
|
| 8:21 |
MattStats5: Sox need a run or two, and let Crochet shut the door stress free. Either way, he’s coming back out.
|
| 8:21 |
Ben Clemens: I want him to pretty badly now
|
| 8:22 |
Davy Andrews: Yeah. What’s really fun is that he definitely wants to be that guy.
|
| 8:22 |
J: Get Sad Trombone to chat with us
|
| 8:22 |
Davy Andrews: Word. Where are you Sad Trombone?
|
| 8:22 |
Bosoxforlife: There aren’t many prettier things in this situation than a 6 pitch inning.
|
| 8:22 |
Ben Clemens: depending on who you’re rooting for, haha
|
| 8:22 |
muxosk: These fast innings from crochet are huge for my chances of getting a curry cooked up before too much happens in the reds/dodgers game.
|
| 8:22 |
Davy Andrews: What kind of curry?
|
| 8:23 |
Davy Andrews: Ben, we haven’t talked about food at all, which seems like an oversight.
|
| 8:23 |
Davy Andrews: What are people making for dinner?
|
| 8:22 |
Guest: That Crochet-Cora interaction really didn’t look like he was coming out
|
| 8:23 |
Guest: Eno used to do chats this long on random Thursdays, those were the days
|
| 8:23 |
Wes: Playoff baseball and leftover pizza. I’d feel like a kid again if I didn’t have a couple hours of work left to do tonight
|
| 8:23 |
Davy Andrews: You are so close to living the dream.
|
| 8:23 |
Ben Clemens: Davy, we have not talked about food, but tonight I’m going to a sports bar, so probably like chicken wings? maybe a nice caesar
|
| 8:24 |
Guest: Made chicken birirra earlier! Family approved
|
| 8:24 |
Davy Andrews: Yeah, way to go. Got a recipe you can pass along?
|
| 8:24 |
Ben Clemens: wow, that is impressive
|
| 8:24 |
Guest: Every Yankee reliever so far has walked a batter.
|
| 8:24 |
The M’s only win when I’m abroad: Any Yanks fans care to entertain me by losing your mind over Devin Williams?
|
| 8:24 |
Davy Andrews: A very reasonable request.
|
| 8:25 |
Guest: Red Sox pinch hitting 3x vs Yankees not at all could be the difference here
|
| 8:25 |
Ben Clemens: hey, the platooning worked!
|
| 8:25 |
Davy Andrews: Story of the game!
|
| 8:25 |
muxosk: red lentils and whatever I spices i happen to grab out of the drawer. I have no recipes and even fewer commitments to culturally authentic cuisine.
|
| 8:26 |
Davy Andrews: Ok, we got a couple takers:
|
| 8:26 |
Sonny: 2025 Devin Williams has that (all of the years) Jordan Hicks thing where on TV it looks impossible and yet batters are telling you it’s quite possible to hit them
|
| 8:26 |
RTJ: i know managers “don’t matter” but sure seems like aaron bone is getting out managered
|
| 8:27 |
Davy Andrews: Look at that Caballero defense!
|
| 8:27 |
Ben Clemens: He’s been really good out there today! Not great at hitting, lol
|
| 8:27 |
Ben Clemens: haha all of the years Jordan Hicks thing
|
| 8:27 |
Davy Andrews: You guys are really going for it.
|
| 8:27 |
Bencle Mens: Yankees’ fans, don’t worry, the main guy you gave up for Devin Williams only had 2.6 WAR at a position you had a hard time filling consistently this year.
|
| 8:27 |
Ben Clemens: arguably not even the main guy, though Nestor was bad
|
| 8:27 |
Guest: that was certainly a route
|
| 8:28 |
Davy Andrews: I think that was the wind. He sprinted to the spot then looked back up for the ball and adjusted. Really hard to do.
|
| 8:28 |
Mook: Devin Williams is Paul Sewald with better branding
|
| 8:28 |
Joe: I think pop ups seem hard to catch
|
| 8:29 |
Ben Clemens: in an extreme ‘you’ll write about everything if you write long enough’ moment, I looked it up and major league fielders are WAY better than minor league fielders at catching pop ups with the same LA/EV characteristics. Or, in other words, it’s hard!
|
| 8:29 |
Davy Andrews: Ohhhhh, that rules. I wonder whether better lighting and stuff factors into it.
|
| 8:28 |
Guest: Birirra was super easy…. for some reason not letting me link but it’s the NYT recipe that takes less than an hour
|
| 8:28 |
Well-Beered Englishman: Did that fan reaction shot include a Red Sox fan flipping the camera off while her relative tried to obscure her face?
|
| 8:29 |
Sonny: Caleb Durbin had 2.6 WAR?!?!? I’m moving to Milwaukee
|
| 8:29 |
Ben Clemens: it would probably improve all of our careers
|
| 8:30 |
Mook: I was vocally dragging Cora for attempting to galaxy brain starting Sogard lol
|
| 8:30 |
Zach: It’s not Boone’s fault that his guys can’t hit Crochet
|
| 8:30 |
Sonny: Aaron Boone is a personality hire. You can’t fire him without acknowledging your own shortcomings
|
| 8:30 |
Davy Andrews: Alright, here we go. Crochet in for the eighth, Whitlock warming up.
|
| 8:30 |
Sonny: The 2025 Brewers are proof that the Miller cave water actually has the restorative powers Topo Chico claims
|
| 8:31 |
Guest: Story of the postseason so far: good pitchers are in fact good!
|
| 8:31 |
Ben Clemens: Told that one to my wife, who’s from Milwaukee, and she laughed out loud
|
| 8:31 |
Commenting makes me anxiousSee Caballero on the Yankees is still so weird to me after his Gerrit Cole finger-wag incident
|
| 8:31 |
Davy Andrews: Publishing this just because I didn’t want to leave someone with that username hanging.
|
| 8:31 |
Mook: Love leaving in crochet for LHP here
|
| 8:31 |
Opifijikl: Good or bad idea to keep crochet out there? Mortgaging his future? Are they relying on his short history to mean he has a healthier arm?
|
| 8:32 |
Davy Andrews: I mean, we’ll find out eventually, but this is why they got him and extended him, and this is who he wants to be. And he’s still dealing.
|
| 8:33 |
Ben Clemens: I don’t think that 10 pitches today can mortgage his future, or un-mortgage it in reverse.
|
| 8:32 |
Guest: Year of the lefty ace?
|
| 8:32 |
Davy Andrews: I love that.
|
| 8:33 |
Davy Andrews: Another Volpedo.
|
| 8:33 |
RTJ: there can’t be any signal to significant noise in the guy who throws slightly more pitches one game and their risk of injury or anything
|
| 8:33 |
Bencle Mens: The Italian Fox strikes again
|
| 8:34 |
Ben Clemens: Where were you when we were giving away the nickname things?
|
| 8:34 |
Guest: How did this turn into an Aaron Boone discussion? He brought in one setup guy who gave up both runs in three batters. There’s not much story unless you think it’s actually controversial to take Fried out, and he seemed to lose several MPH in the previous inning.
|
| 8:34 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah I don’t mind that ove
|
| 8:34 |
Ben Clemens: I do like that Cora is pinch hitting, but like… the Red Sox still have their starter in. The Yankees just played their best hitters against him in the first place
|
| 8:35 |
Davy Andrews: Volpe with the attempt on the big vault lead that the Yankees (and Mets) love.
|
| 8:36 |
Ben Clemens: that base was stolen, imo
|
| 8:36 |
RTJ: Things I hate when watching baseball on tv: when the crowd boos after the pitcher throws to first. Things I love doing when attending a game in-person: booing the opposing pitcher when they throw to first
|
| 8:36 |
Ben Clemens: oh wow, I couldn’t agree more
|
| 8:37 |
Guest: surely the last batter here?
|
| 8:37 |
Ben Clemens: lol what in the world was Wells doing there?
|
| 8:37 |
Davy Andrews: Wow. Ice cold from Crochet.
|
| 8:37 |
Guest: its like how home fans cheer when their manager gets ejected, and home fans cheer when the visiting manager gets ejected
|
| 8:38 |
Davy Andrews: Ok, we’ve waited long enough:
|
| 8:38 |
J: Wow what a terrible move to leave Crochet in (please don’t post this unless the Yankees score here)
|
| 8:38 |
Dirt: The pitching today has been insane. Let’s hope Greene keeps it going
|
| 8:38 |
Guest: crochet and skubal, man
|
| 8:39 |
Wes: I love booing at games! I would never yell an insult at a player, but booing is just fun
|
| 8:39 |
Ben Clemens: Couldn’t agree more
|
| 8:39 |
Ben Clemens: I boo a lot of people at baseball games when I’m attending as a fan
|
| 8:39 |
Ben Clemens: i don’t even dislike them, communal booing is just delightful
|
| 8:40 |
Sonny: Elongated vowels are just fun to say. Name your dog Goose or Moose and enjoy
|
| 8:40 |
Davy Andrews: I’m sorry to be a wet blanket, but I disagree. I just don’t feel right being mean to somebody, even in that format.
|
| 8:41 |
Davy Andrews: It feels mean to me.
|
| 8:41 |
Opifijikl: Happy for crochet! Was scarred from the July game with the Judge homer, but this time he pulled through!
|
| 8:41 |
MattStats5: Crochet was money….what a performance.
|
| 8:41 |
Welland Jackfish: Balloon is a delightful word for a delightful object
|
| 8:42 |
Guest: That’s why I love pro wrestling. They WANT you to boo! It’s their job!
|
| 8:42 |
RTJ: I don’t really like booing when a player messes up or stinks in a game. But booing innocuous situations is very fun
|
| 8:42 |
Wes: I respect that, Davy. I feel like players generally ignore boos as opposed to directed insults, but I might be wrong!
|
| 8:42 |
Timbo: Given technology today, it is hilarious how massive the pitchcom is
|
| 8:42 |
Ben Clemens: I really like the Mets PitchCom robot graphic
|
| 8:42 |
Ben Clemens: because it’s outrageous how bad PitchCom is
|
| 8:42 |
Ben Clemens: it’s like printers
|
| 8:42 |
Davy Andrews: Oh yeah, that’s so great.
|
| 8:42 |
Welland Jackfish: when do they use a pitchcom robot graphic?
|
| 8:43 |
Ben Clemens: every time the pitchcom malfunctions
|
| 8:43 |
Davy Andrews: It’s hilarious.
|
| 8:43 |
Ben Clemens: they have a little malfunctioning cutesy robot graphic
|
| 8:43 |
Davy Andrews: I’ve actually had an article idea sitting in my notes for months and months. It’s a tell-all from the person whose job it is to make sure that every reliever enters the game with a PitchCom that’s fully broken.
|
| 8:44 |
Ben Clemens: omg Davy please write this
|
| 8:44 |
Wes: The Cubs announcer repeatedly says that he’s convinced that pitchcom almost never malfunctions. He believes 99% of alleged malfunctions are either the volume being set incorrectly or an attempt at getting extra time. What do you think?
|
| 8:44 |
Ben Clemens: I think that’s why it’s so funny
|
| 8:44 |
MattStats5: You can’t do that there, Aroldis
|
| 8:45 |
Ben Clemens: if anyone can get away with it, it’s him
|
| 8:45 |
Ben Clemens: not like he gives up a lot of hits
|
| 8:45 |
Guest: Off-season article idea: how much of the saved time from not having to do signals do we give back from pitch com malfunctions
|
| 8:45 |
Davy Andrews: Ooh, that is good.
|
| 8:45 |
MattStats5: I know, but still…..tight game, on the road. Small things matter.
|
| 8:45 |
Guest: Even I can nearly see the pitch in Chapman’s glove from the TV view. Wonder what the peekers can see
|
| 8:46 |
Wes: Are pitchcom devices available to the public? Would be cool if you could get your hands on one to try it out
|
| 8:46 |
Guest: that one was close
|
| 8:46 |
Davy Andrews: That could have been disastrous.
|
| 8:46 |
RTJ: ooh that’s good I should get a pitch com for my wife
|
| 8:47 |
J: The classic Red Sox tradition of not letting Rafaela does what he does best for some inexplicable reason
|
| 8:47 |
Ben Clemens: That was Wilyer respecting the rules of the Red Sox and not letting Rafaela just exist in CF, it’s true
|
| 8:48 |
PX2J: that’s a case of a couple outfielders having barely played together in the second half
|
| 8:48 |
Davy Andrews: It might also be a case of a really loud stadium.
|
| 8:48 |
New UK Fan: Going to the Bronx tomorrow for the first time. What should I know? (I’m a Sox fan)
|
| 8:49 |
Davy Andrews: Get there early. The lines to enter are really long and slow.
|
| 8:49 |
Bosoxforlife: Wilyer is probably going to get his second Gold Glove this year. His 9-3 putout of Alejandro Kirk was epic.
|
| 8:49 |
Ben Clemens: I’m in the midst of compiling my Fielding Bible ballot and he is a strong contender.
|
| 8:49 |
MattStats5: You should know that Bello needs to post up large.
|
| 8:49 |
J: Bring food into Yankee stadium! So many good options in NYC and none of them are inside.
|
| 8:50 |
Ben Clemens: It’s tough to though, haha. But I tend to agree, they should offer better food options.
|
| 8:50 |
Zach: Is it smart to use your closer in this situation (to try to keep the deficit at 1) or should you save him for Games 2 and 3?
|
| 8:51 |
New Yohk Food: They do have that authentic New York pizza in Yankee Stadium, though. :sbarro.gif:
|
| 8:51 |
Ben Clemens: I think that saving him to keep the deficit at one is defensible, I don’t think it’s clear either way
|
| 8:51 |
Ben Clemens: if this were a five game series with off days and whatnot, I’d say rest him
|
| 8:51 |
Ben Clemens: but like, what if you just lose big tomorrow?
|
| 8:51 |
Davy Andrews: Yeah, don’t think you can fault them for that.
|
| 8:51 |
Ben Clemens: season’s over and Bednar didn’t get to do anything? seems bad
|
| 8:51 |
Guest: Assuming they hang on, Boston saving Whitlock and winning is just about the perfect win, especially burning 4 good arms in the Yankee pen
|
| 8:51 |
Guest: Can we get a full stop on mid-inning ads? so disruptive
|
| 8:52 |
Davy Andrews: I hate them with a fiery passion, and the answer is no. There’s no way we’ll ever go back.
|
| 8:52 |
War2D2: Is there a worse audio stinger than the Yankee Stadium K sound?
|
| 8:52 |
Ben Clemens: We used to joke about this when I lived in NY. That company, WB Mason, probably has really good publicity from people associating their jingle with good outcomes
|
| 8:52 |
Davy Andrews: Wait, I thought it was BP Richard & Son.
|
| 8:53 |
New Yohk Food: Also worth mentioning that Yankee Stadium is next to the East Bronx chop shop that turns the Karz 4 Kids donations into scrap parts for auto repair places in Queens.
|
| 8:53 |
Guest: Should teams with elite relievers consider opening with them in short series so you’re guaranteed to have innings going to your best pitchers?
|
| 8:53 |
Ben Clemens: Sam Miller wrote about this once and I really liked it
|
| 8:53 |
Wes: 2016 Zack Britton would tell you to use the closer because you never know if the correct situation will ever come
|
| 8:53 |
Duck Boat Hopeful: WB Mason used to be the sponsor for all the Sox pre and postgame programming.
|
| 8:53 |
Mook: I hate the Fenway K sound too (Sox fan)
|
| 8:53 |
Phil: Red Sox radio just said that Masa was the first pinch-hitter in Sox postseason history to turn a deficit into a lead. That’s a lot of qualifiers but still seems surprising.
|
| 8:54 |
Guest: Novella is back at it
|
| 8:54 |
Davy Andrews: Feel good story.
|
| 8:54 |
War2D2: I didn’t realize the K sound was associated with a company, I just thought it was an annoying sound. I’ve never lived East of Chicago so I’m not familiar with WB Mason or whoever.
|
| 8:54 |
Davy Andrews: Yeah, you hear it in commercials all the time here.
|
| 8:54 |
Ben Clemens: oh yeah. I don’t even think I’ve ever been to a WB Mason or anything. They’re like…. paper supplies?
|
| 8:55 |
Ben Clemens: but yeah, if you had lived in NY, you’d think it was less weird
|
| 8:55 |
Opifijikl: Are there rules about the length of sliding mittens?
|
| 8:55 |
Ben Clemens: they actually just talked about this on the broadcast
|
| 8:55 |
Ben Clemens: noted that there was some momentum towards a limit, but also that Story’s glove isn’t huge
|
| 8:56 |
Guest: How drastic should the change be in your odds of winning required to challenge as the game goes on? (i.e. should you challenge on a 10% chance in the 9th)
|
| 8:56 |
Ben Clemens: because, despite the rules, you can just ask the umps to review it and they will if it’s close late
|
| 8:56 |
Opifijikl: re. Mittens. Sorry, bar is loud missed it.
|
| 8:56 |
Ben Clemens: oh no worries. I assume that not all of our readers are listening to the same broadcast
|
| 8:56 |
Guest: Well, Bednar did something!
|
| 8:57 |
Davy Andrews: It was indeed a thing.
|
| 8:57 |
Davy Andrews: (By the way, please go ahead and keep writing in LMAO or LOL. I will just publish it right after I make a joke to make it look like you think I’m funny.)
|
| 8:58 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: what are the stats on teams going down 0-1 winning a 3 game series?
|
| 8:58 |
Ben Clemens: bad. um…. bear with me
|
| 8:58 |
Davy Andrews: Thank you for taking this, Ben.
|
| 8:58 |
Brian Cashman: Wow Davy that joke was so funny
|
| 8:59 |
Davy Andrews: (I am cackling.)
|
| 8:59 |
New Yohk Food: The radio hosts were saying game 1 winners were 12-0 in the WC.
|
| 8:59 |
MyBloodyBallantine: David $&?& the Bednar
|
| 8:59 |
Davy Andrews: Ok, this is pretty funny.
|
| 9:00 |
Ben Clemens: that’s true, but they had non-wild-card 3 game series in 2020
|
| 9:00 |
Ben Clemens: and the Padres came back from down 0-1 to beat the Cards 2-1
|
| 9:00 |
Sean: Remember all the drama over torpedo bats after 3 days? That was fun
|
| 9:00 |
Davy Andrews: It really was fun.
|
| 9:00 |
Sonny: Karl Ravich shouldn’t write a “wear what the players are wearing” check that his butt can’t cash when I go to store.mlb and search ‘Nate Lowe Dickey’
|
| 9:00 |
Ben Clemens: if you look at all 3-game postseason series throuhgout history, it’s 2-22
|
| 9:00 |
Ben Clemens: which is not great!
|
| 9:01 |
Guest: Can’t be often that the team coming out of Game 1 with the better bullpen rest is the winning team
|
| 9:01 |
RTJ: Nathaniel Lowe looks like what you get when you open Create a Player tab in a video game
|
| 9:02 |
Well-Beered Englishman: That mustache is making Tim Hill look ~48 years old
|
| 9:02 |
Mook: Meg talking about Tim Hill’s “bootlegger face” was a great moment in EW history
|
| 9:02 |
3 game series: Do those three game series include regular season game 163/4/5 series like giants/dodgers 1962?
|
| 9:02 |
Ben Clemens: they sure do!
|
| 9:02 |
Ben Clemens: there were four of those, and the team who lost game 1 went 0-4 in them it looks like
|
| 9:02 |
Guest: if only the yankees had nestor cortes to put in instead of tim hill!
|
| 9:02 |
Brian Cashman: This season, Chapman has given up multiple runs in an outing 0 times, which is so fun
|
| 9:03 |
MattStats5: Chapman to shut the door here….come on, man.
|
| 9:03 |
Timbo: That is because you needed to write “Nathaniel Lowe Dickey” or his mom will beat you up
|
| 9:03 |
Phil: So. . . why is the record that bad? Shouldn’t they average out to 25%, if I’m remembering anything about math?
|
| 9:03 |
Ben Clemens: it’s a little trickier than that b/c the team who wins game one is generally the better team
|
| 9:03 |
Davy Andrews: Does a mock turtleneck count as a dickey too? I thought it was only a full turtleneck.
|
| 9:04 |
Ben Clemens: this is what we’ve all been waiting for
|
| 9:04 |
Davy Andrews: That’s why Goldy’s your leadoff man.
|
| 9:05 |
Guest: Well, a full serving of drama, because of course
|
| 9:05 |
Ben Clemens: wow Judge hit that HARD
|
| 9:05 |
Davy Andrews: That’s batting champion Aaron Judge to you.
|
| 9:05 |
Ben Clemens: you could hear that it was different, even on the amped up mics
|
| 9:05 |
Guest: now this is very intresting
|
| 9:05 |
Guest: Good day of baseball!
|
| 9:05 |
Mook: Game ending triple play set up
|
| 9:05 |
RTJ: but he didn’t ‘just miss it’ because it was on the ground
|
| 9:06 |
Ben Clemens: i mean, he did not miss that ball. He got ALL of it
|
| 9:06 |
Opifijikl: planning for the triple play? praying for the triple play.
|
| 9:06 |
Guest: will the yanks noble tiger?
|
| 9:06 |
Guest: The right guy for a grand slam or a triple play. And Chisholm being put in for defense over Rosario looms very large now
|
| 9:06 |
Ben Clemens:
Will the Yankees NOBLETIGER
Yes (46.5% | 20 votes)
No (23.2% | 10 votes)
What? (30.2% | 13 votes)
Total Votes: 43
|
| 9:06 |
Guest: i thought rafaela had that, wow
|
| 9:07 |
Ben Clemens: NOBLETIGER is no out bases loaded ending in team incapable of getting easy run
|
| 9:07 |
Guest: Sac fly, K, F8 if you ask me
|
| 9:07 |
Sonny: that ball was kind of in Duran’s lap right? Where was he?
|
| 9:07 |
Ben Clemens: i think he was playing no doubles
|
| 9:07 |
Ben Clemens: which is not unreasonable given the situation
|
| 9:08 |
Davy Andrews: Not to be confused with a NOBLEDUMPER, which is Cal Raleigh wearing a tuxedo.
|
| 9:08 |
Guest: Davy is the funniest guy ever LOL
|
| 9:08 |
Wes: He had to stop to look both ways for Abreu
|
| 9:08 |
Davy Andrews: Ooh, you earned this one, Wes:
|
| 9:08 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: I bet we see a FARTSLAM here in addition to the NOBLETIGER
|
| 9:08 |
Ben Clemens: I’m not seeing it, tbh
|
| 9:08 |
Ben Clemens: unless we count fielders running into each other
|
| 9:08 |
Ben Clemens: (fielder allows runner to score like a moron)
|
| 9:09 |
Guest: can Chisholm even run
|
| 9:09 |
Ben Clemens: I guess we’ll find out!
|
| 9:09 |
Guest: remind me of the jays sox game from 2022 lol
|
| 9:09 |
Guest: Meanwhile, there’s another game starting now!
|
| 9:09 |
J: If we figure the team that wins the first game (who is probably better on average than the loser) has a 40% chance at each of the following 2 games, there’s a 12.3% chance that in 12 series that team would win every time. This is actually not that improbably even if the odds are essentially what we think!
|
| 9:09 |
Ben Clemens: great work J
|
| 9:09 |
Bosoxforlife: This is testing my 83 year old heart.
|
| 9:10 |
Ben Clemens: what a way to start the playoffs
|
| 9:10 |
Davy Andrews: Chisholm taking that 0-1 pitch right out of the catcher’s mitt.
|
| 9:10 |
Guest: Chapman’s catching a whole lot of the zone but it’s 100 so who cares?
|
| 9:10 |
Guest: That pitch was FAST
|
| 9:10 |
Guest: they may actually nobeltiger
|
| 9:11 |
Well-Beered Englishman: NOBLEDUMPER. No Outs Bases Loaded Ending in Demented Umpire Making Perfectly Enraging Ruling
|
| 9:12 |
Davy Andrews: Man Grisham up with the bases loaded and two strike after going 0-for-3 with three strikeouts.
|
| 9:12 |
Guest: If he walks Grisham and it comes down to Volpe bases loaded 2 outs down a run NY might explode
|
| 9:12 |
Ben Clemens: how tempting must it be to just never swing at anything Chapman throws? like you’re gonna have trouble hitting it anyway
|
| 9:12 |
Davy Andrews: It worked for Austin Hedges.
|
| 9:12 |
Welland Jackfish: I know Grisham hit 30 home runs this year surprising everyone, but isn’t Jasson Dominguez supposed to be the Yankee of the Future tm?
|
| 9:13 |
Ben Clemens: and the nobletiger has occurred!
|
| 9:13 |
Ben Clemens: what a perfectly Chapman ending
|
| 9:13 |
Davy Andrews: Damn Roku. You guys are so far ahead of me. We need spoiler alerts.
|
| 9:13 |
Paul Sporer: Wow, he’s insane
|
| 9:13 |
Guest: omg they nobeltigered
|
| 9:13 |
Guest: golden sombrero for grisham
|
| 9:13 |
Ben Clemens: guys, I have to run so that I can get to my aforementioned dinner plans, but have a wonderful evening everyoe
|
| 9:14 |
Paul Sporer: So many of the streaming services are MULTIPLE pitches behind cable
|
| 9:14 |
Go River Cats: What’s the Yankee radio station for hot takes tomorrow? Might listen online during work
|
| 9:14 |
Davy Andrews: I think it’s WFAN.
|
| 9:14 |
Ben Clemens: ‘let’s just use all lefties’
|
| 9:14 |
Ben Clemens: worked well for BOS today
|
| 9:14 |
Ben Clemens: catch you all later, Davy, a pleasure as always
|
| 9:14 |
Guest: DAAAA JANKEES LOSE
|
| 9:14 |
Bosoxforlife: Baseball at its very best!!!
|
| 9:14 |
New Yohk Food: NOBLE TIGER!
|
| 9:14 |
Tacoby Bellsbury: We have had insane pitching all day. What a blessing.
|
| 9:15 |
Mook: Should yanks have sent goldy?
|
| 9:15 |
Davy Andrews: I mean, the risk is so, so high there for a high who’s not at all fast and not the tying run.
|
| 9:15 |
Go River Cats: Thanks Davy. hope WFAN has an online stream
|
| 9:15 |
Sonny: I need a cigarette
|
| 9:15 |
Wes: Oooo they switch games right as Ohtani is up. That’s some good timing
|
| 9:16 |
Davy Andrews: Alright everybody, I’m sorry to say it, but we’re going to wrap up the chat now.
|
| 9:16 |
Davy Andrews: We so appreciate all of you spending this super fun day with us, and I hope the last game of the day is as exciting as the previous ones.
|
| 9:17 |
Davy Andrews: My goodness, Ohtani.
|
| 9:17 |
Guest: Hindsight bias being 20-20 and all, is there a reason not to ph dominguez for grisham? I realize his rh splits aren’t great but surely that’s a better matchup than l on l.
|
| 9:17 |
Davy Andrews: Off the top of my head, sure. But I’d want to check a bunch of splits that I imagine the Yankees have already checked. I doubt they made that decision without some data behind it.
|
| 9:18 |
Richard: You can’t leave after that!
|
| 9:18 |
Bosoxforlife: Please do more!!!!!
|
| 9:19 |
lzfreak: Thanks for chatting, fangraphs people! Hope to have more of these this postseason
|
| 9:19 |
Guest: Thanks so much for the chat!
|
| 9:19 |
Phil: Thanks for chatting!
|
| 9:19 |
Davy Andrews: Have a great night, everyone. Enjoy the playoffs!
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
They no more than close the chat and Ohtani leads off the Dodger 1st with a bomb.