FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/24/17
4:25 |
What is your strongest opinion on the TB-LA trade?
Friedman is just plundering his old team (1.5% | 4 votes)
TB did well to get De Leon (50.7% | 134 votes)
Boy do the Twins have egg on their face (38.6% | 102 votes)
Something else (9.0% | 24 votes)
Total Votes: 264
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4:28 |
What do you think is Andruw Jones’ biggest legacy in baseball?
His playing career (37.1% | 75 votes)
How he has inspired kids in Curacao/Aruba to play baseball (15.8% | 32 votes)
Hard to choose, they’re both pretty great (47.0% | 95 votes)
Total Votes: 202
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4:29 |
Will you be watching the World Baseball Classic?
Hell yes! (19.3% | 46 votes)
Probably (32.3% | 77 votes)
Meh (19.3% | 46 votes)
Probably not (18.9% | 45 votes)
Definitely not (7.9% | 19 votes)
What’s the World Baseball Classic? (2.1% | 5 votes)
Total Votes: 238
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4:33 |
Which movie would get your vote for Best Picture?
Arrival (13.0% | 29 votes)
Fences (1.7% | 4 votes)
Hacksaw Ridge (6.2% | 14 votes)
Hell or High Water (4.4% | 10 votes)
Hidden Figures (2.6% | 6 votes)
La La Land (11.6% | 26 votes)
Lion (1.3% | 3 votes)
Manchester By The Sea (4.9% | 11 votes)
Moonlight (5.3% | 12 votes)
Who cares what a group of 80-year-old men think? (48.4% | 108 votes)
Total Votes: 223
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9:00 |
: Hi everybody!
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9:01 |
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9:01 |
: I think that’s a natural thing to say. I can’t specifically recall any studies on tall hitters, however. The study that always comes to mind when someone mentions height is Jeff’s piece a couple years back on how short pitchers are underrated.
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9:02 |
: Better keeper in a 4X4 Roto league Samardzjia or Wei-Yin Chen?
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9:02 |
: Samardzija. As Sullivan said last week, AT&T really depresses those homers.
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9:02 |
: Jeff Z will be late tonight, by the way. He’s coaching his daughter’s basketball team.
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9:02 |
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9:03 | : Well, that’s certainly a fair criticism. He hit more grounders than anyone else on the Orioles last year: |
9:04 |
: And playing in that park, ground balls are certainly suboptimal. Having said that, I like Kim. I like him better in an AL-only league, but he’s good enough to be a 4th OF in mixed leagues.
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9:04 |
: Maybe even a 3rd OF if your infield is strong.
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9:04 |
: Is the Braves’ mission to build the best 84 win team in the history of baseball?
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9:04 |
: The Braves’ mission is to appear respectable so the good people of Cobb County don’t burn their new ballpark to the ground.
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9:04 |
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9:05 |
: Benintendi. It’s not even clear that Puig is a starter at this juncture.
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9:05 |
: What do you think of maikel Franco? Is he more of 2015 or more of 2016?
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9:05 |
: More 2016.
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9:05 |
: if you’re the d’backs: would you rather have ty walker (and give up segura +) or jose de leon (straight up for segura)?
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9:06 |
: Well, I don’t know that that is a fair comp, because the Dodgers probably had no interest in trading with the Dbacks.
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9:06 |
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9:06 |
: As great as Andruw Jones was, he needs another category for us Dodger fans. After signing a 2-year, 32 million dollar contract in 2008, he put up a 38 wRC+ and -1.1 WAR before being cut next January. He was great elsewhere, but he legacy in LA is one of frustration and disappointment.
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9:07 |
: Certainly it wasn’t his finest hour, but I trust you to evaluate his career outside of that two-year context.
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9:07 |
: What kids of fruit would you put on opposite sides of a pen?
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9:07 |
: Wha?
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9:07 |
: What’s your opinion of moving Strasburg to an Andrew Miller type roll? The Nats currently don’t have a closer and this could prolong his career. I realize his salary is that of a starter, but if he gets hurt he is getting paid regardless.
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9:07 |
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9:08 |
: I’ll be on a first date tonight and miss the chat. I think an extra poll should be how will it end up? A) Troutian where I’m smooth in all aspects of my game B ) Ryan Howard-esque where I’m too old and still striking out or C) Joey Bats Style where she didn’t really want me except on an expensive one date deal?
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9:08 |
: No need, I’m sure the answer is A!
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9:08 |
: Rays seem to like guys who throw high in the zone taking the good (k’s) with the bad (hr’s). Any reason to think part of reason they valued De Leon more than Twins?
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9:08 |
: No, I think it probably had more to do with a more realistic valuation of Forsythe.
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9:09 |
: George Brett or Chipper Jones? Andruw Jones or Jim Edmonds? Freddie Freeman or Mark Teixeira? Dale Murphy or JD Drew?
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9:09 |
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9:09 |
: Is defense cumulative? i.e., does having more good defenders make each of them better? How good do they have to be to trigger such an effect?
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9:10 | : That’s a good question. I know Jesse Wolfersberger has found that this is true of hitters. I do not know if the same is true of fielders though. |
9:10 |
: Is Mike trout the last Jedi?
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9:10 |
: No, Mookie Betts is the last Jedi. Trout is next-to-last.
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9:10 |
: In a Score Sheet keeper league, looking at my 13th keeper slot. Is J Profar’s potential worth more than K Morales in 2017 and beyond. Realizing Profar doesn’t actually have a position to play.
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9:11 |
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9:11 |
: Is G Richard’s upside worth the risk?
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9:11 |
: Yes.
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9:11 |
: Is market size the issue with why MLB won’t consider places like Omaha or Nashville as options for an expansion team?
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9:12 |
: I would think that’s part of it. Another large factor is likely team territories. Omaha is probably split among a bunch of teams, most notably the Royals, while Nashville likely belongs to the Braves. Not sure about that, but there is probably some factor there.
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9:12 |
: It’s why I support putting a team in Mexico City and San Juan – less of the territorial claims to deal with.
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9:13 |
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9:13 |
: Please, I’m flattered you all ask a dullard like me any questions at all! Trout, Kershaw, Votto, Sanchez, Diaz.
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9:14 |
: Bogaerts for $18 is attractive, as is Duffy at $1.
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9:14 |
: Goldschmidt at $44 is pretty good too, but you can’t tie up half your budget on three players, and you have to keep Trout and Kershaw.
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9:14 |
: If you do hate fantasy questions, how many wins could a good 3rd base coach add?
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9:15 |
: 0.5 at most.
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9:15 |
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9:15 |
: I’ve only seen two — Arrival and Hidden Figures. I imagine most people in the chat haven’t seen the majority of these movies, but I could be wrong.
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9:15 |
: Let’s put that to a poll, actually.
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9:16 |
How many of this year’s Best Picture nominees have you seen? (see prior poll)
All nine (0% | 0 votes)
7-8 (0% | 0 votes)
5-6 (3.5% | 2 votes)
3-4 (3.5% | 2 votes)
1-2 (28.0% | 16 votes)
None (64.9% | 37 votes)
Total Votes: 57
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9:16 |
: So last week I asked a question about pre-arb/arb salaries, and Travis’ article on the middle class of baseball spoke to my question: The way players have been compensated seems to be at least bending, if not breaking. How do you see MLBPA fighting to change player compensation in the next CBA?
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9:18 |
: To be honest, the MLBPA doesn’t seem all that interested in fighting this fight. What they need to be doing is fighting for more rights for the young class of players – minor leaguers and young major leaguers. Get their pay upped and on a closer playing field to veterans, and veterans would again become more desirable. But that doesn’t seem to be happening, nor do I expect it to.
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9:18 |
: I’d like to mention that I’m only watching the WBC because I’m starved for baseball
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9:18 |
: That’s OK though!
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9:18 |
: Biggest hole in baseball: Tigers CF, Nationals Closer, Angels rotation, or elsewhere?
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9:18 |
: I mean, in all of baseball? Probably elsewhere.
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9:18 |
: Where’s the best landing spot for Dozier now?
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9:19 |
: I fear that he won’t be going anywhere until the trade deadline or until a contender suffers a debilitating injury.
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9:20 | : When I looked at this, the Yankees and Angels seemed like good fits, but the Angels signed Valbuena, and the Yankees don’t seem to want him, so … |
9:20 |
: It seems like playing the game in 1950 and playing the game in 2000 would be very different things. In 2050, will we feel the same away about the year 2000? Or is baseball “solidifying”?
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9:21 |
: I’m sure it will feel different. If I knew *how* it would be different, I can assure you I would be spending my time in Las Vegas, getting rich off of my omniscient ways.
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9:21 |
: It’s difficult to argue with what Freidman & Co have done to ensure the Dodgers are a healthy franchise (personnel wise) top to bottom. Strong MLB team, strong farm. However – with the ultimate goal being a World Series win, how long does the ownership group give this front office before they decide to go in another direction? One feels that, regardless of the process, results will determine their fate. Do you think there’s a line penciled on a calendar?
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9:21 |
: Nope. They got within two games of the World Series last season, I think they’ve done a very good job thus far.
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9:21 |
: What kind of career should we expect from Lewis Brinson? Star? Superstar maybe?
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9:22 |
: I would never *expect* anyone to become a superstar.
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9:22 |
: Dave’s post about the Marlins got me thinking. What team(s) are most like to try the ‘new’ bullpen multi-inning ace strategy?
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9:22 |
: I don’t think any teams, to be honest. Starting pitchers are stubborn, as are managers and coaches.
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9:22 |
: Facing a dillema in my keeper (12 team, $260 budget, 5X5): Have 2 keeper spots available for 4 players. Jon Lester $10, Robbie Ray $3, Matt Shoemaker $3 and Andrew Miller $3. Note I have already used $185 from my first 6 keepers. That’s why I lean Ray + Miller because upside and those sweet ratios.
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9:23 |
: Definitely Miller. I probably bite the bullet and keep Lester too, because despite your budget crunch, $10 for him is a bargain, and if you need to deal him the day after the draft, you could get a lot for him.
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9:23 |
: WAR is a useful tool to compare pitchers to hitters for trade purposes. But the fielding part for position players screws things up a bit IMO. Is there an alternative way to do this comparison?
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9:24 |
: Well, you don’t need to look solely at WAR, nor should you. You need to compare a variety of statistics, plus the normal scouting reports and soft-side factors.
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9:24 |
: Could a team of FG staff + Trout beat a Rookie level team?
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9:25 |
: Wow. I doubt it. If you gave us Trout plus say, an actual professional pitcher, maybe, but I don’t think any of us is capable of actually pitching to professionals.
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9:25 |
: I don’t know if any of us is actually capable of throwing strikes from 60 feet 6 inches even 4 times out of 10.
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9:25 |
: There was an Archer chat? Dammit!
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9:26 |
: Yup, you missed it. We might have another as we get closer to the start of the new season, you never know.
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9:26 |
: New playoff format after realignment : 5 best records from AL and NL make playoffs. 4 plays 5 in one-game playoff; 3 plays the winner of that in a three-game series: 2 plays the winner of that in a five-game series; 1 plays the winner of that in a seven-game series; and the winners go to the WS. What say you?
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9:27 |
: That sounds inaccessible and complicated, and you have introduced another short series, which I don’t like. Other than that it sounds just ducky.
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9:27 |
: Any optimism that Forsythe has set a higher market value for Dozier and a good first half will net the Twins more that JDL and stuff?
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9:27 |
: No, but I admire your optimism for such a scenario.
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9:27 |
: McCutcheon, Puig, Braun, Quintana: who gets moved before the 2017 trade deadline?
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9:27 |
: I’ll be conservative and say just Quintana.
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9:27 |
: How do I make myself not care about Hall of fame voting?
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9:28 |
: By reminding yourself that you can only worry about the things that you can control?
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9:28 |
: Standard 5×5. Im keeping Machado, Correa, Betts and Freeman. I can keep 1 more between Bregman, Sano, Springer, Hamilton
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9:28 |
: Leaning Springer.
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9:29 |
: Could be talked out of that.
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9:29 |
: 4×4 AL-only 11 team league. Two of the teams are expansion teams this year (no players to start with before the draft) and I’m expecting severe draft inflation. Should I keep Stroman ($16) to go with Rondon ($6) and Gausman ($2)? I think Stroman has break-out potential this year, and I’m planning to add a No. 1-type SP in the draft
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9:30 |
: I don’t see his breakout potential, but in an 11-team AL-only league, I think you probably have to keep him at that price.
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9:30 |
: Please rank Benintendi, Dahl, and Mazara
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9:30 |
: I’d rank them just as you have them there.
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9:30 |
: Should the Pirates be rebuilding, shooting to win now, or something in between?
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9:31 |
: Win now. To me, they owe McCutchen the chance to shoot for the moon and give Pittsburgh a championship before they ship him out next season. I’m not holding my breath though.
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9:31 |
: Are either of you football or basketball fans?
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9:31 |
: I love the NBA, and while I am rapidly falling out of love with the NFL, I still pay attention to it
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9:31 |
: .
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9:31 |
: Jeff and Paul… Love your work. What odds would you give the Dbacks’ chances of sneaking into a playoff spot?
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9:32 |
: It’s obviously non-zero, but it’s somewhere between 0-5%.
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9:32 |
: What to expect from the rumored Valencia/Vogelbach platoon this year, in terms of ABs? Valencia is the one who hits lefties – does that make him the short side of the platoon?
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9:32 |
: Yeah, I would think so. Also, awesome name.
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9:33 |
: How you foresee the challenges faced by “the MLB middle class” playing out?
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9:33 |
: Poorly, for them.
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9:33 |
: How many more 35+ SB seasons do you forecast for Villar and how long before the brewers trade him?
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9:33 |
: 1-2. Whether Milwaukee trades him soon or not soon probably depends on how quickly this rebuild comes together.
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9:34 |
: Blanton or Blevins? Who do Dodgers sign?
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9:34 |
: Can’t say that I have a prediction there, but to me it’s always better to sign the devil you know.
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9:34 |
: I really want to watch ‘Cloverfield Lane’ but can’t find it online to rent. Worth paying $14.99 to buy online?
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9:34 |
: I haven’t seen it, but I would probably want to see it before comitting to $14.99 for it.
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9:35 |
: I did want to see it though.
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9:36 |
: I think the reason you probably can only buy it and not rent it is just came out on video? Maybe if you wait a bit it will be available to rent?
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9:36 |
: Is AJ Reed cooked? Are we all overreacting to a small MLB sample?
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9:36 |
: He was very good in the minors last year, so I wouldn’t say he is cooked by any stretch.
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9:36 |
Who makes the biggest impact for the Pads in 2017? In the long-term? |
9:37 |
: Guessing Margot for both.
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9:37 |
: Drew Pomeranz or Vince Velasquez get to 150 innings? Do either of them stick as a starter?
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9:37 |
: Will say that Pomeranz does not get there if everyone in Boston’s rotation is healthy. I think the only obstacle to Velasquez getting to 150 is his health. I think they’re both good enough to be very good starters
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9:37 |
: .
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9:38 |
: Does Gregory Polanco finally live up to the hype this year and become a 25/20 HR/SB machine?
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9:38 |
: I mean, he was 3 HR and 3 SB shy of that last year. Is that not good enough for you? I like Polanco a lot.
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9:39 |
: Hey now! I’m not 80 and get an Oscar vote. (It should clearly be Moonlight, btw. First movie in a long time where I would’ve just walked back into the theater after it was over to watch it again.)
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9:40 | : Well, good for you. Keep fighting the good fight. But as I’m sure you know, most of the voters are old, white men. |
9:40 |
: Which is why the Oscars have become increasingly irrelevant for me.
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9:41 |
: And I’m guessing for you as well, as 37 votes in, none of you has seen 7, 8 or all of these movies. 34 of you haven’t seen more than 2.
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9:41 |
: Would you rather see a strike and work stoppage as opposed to the garbage CBA the MLBPA just signed? I think I would – no minimum salary increase, internat’l kids got hosed, favors the owners on every issue. #fuckthebourgoisie #seizethemeansofproduction
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9:42 |
: Absolutely. With all due respect to Tony Clark, I think it might be better if the MLBPA found a labor lawyer to run their association.
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9:42 |
: Cloverfield Lane — jiggly camera throughout, if it’s the sci-fi movie I’m thinking of. Hard to watch a jiggly camera movie for two hours
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9:43 |
: You’re thinking of Cloverfield, I think. Cloverfield Lane is a somewhat related cousin to that movie, though I tried to avoid reading precisely how they were related because I wanted to see the latter.
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9:43 |
: Will I regain my MVP-like form this year?
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9:43 |
: I believe you will, yes.
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9:43 |
: Chipper or Boggs?
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9:44 |
: Boggs. Just barely.
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9:44 |
: Childhood sentiment plays a role there, for sure.
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9:44 |
: Do you think the Rockies will shed an outfielder before the season starts?
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9:44 |
: I’ve given up trying to predict what the Rockies will do.
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9:45 |
: Its a decent movie, I wouldnt pay 15 dollars for it though
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9:45 |
: RE Cloverfield Lane
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9:45 |
: Are the Indians setting a new model for smaller market teams by building a talented cost-controlled starting rotation, as they can’t afford expensive free-agent hitters? It looks like the Rays are following the same course
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9:45 |
: I don’t know that this was a model that Cleveland built, or that can be built. I think it’s something that all teams are trying to do at all times.
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9:46 |
: Is Carl Edwards the next super elite reliever posting absurd K-rates and low ERAs a la Miller, Betances, Chapman, Diaz, etc.?
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9:46 |
: He’s on the list, but the real gem I think is a guy who I will have a piece on tomorrow. Stay tuned for that!
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9:46 |
: If you like fantasy questions: who’s your favorite 5 category sleeper for the year? If you don’t: who’s your favorite 5 category sleeper for the year?
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9:46 |
: Ha. I don’t know that a guy who contributes in all five categories can be considered a sleeper.
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9:48 |
: To be honest, I haven’t really compiled a sleepers list, but Jose Ramirez is a name that sticks out to me. Despite him playing in the World Series, I feel like people still might not know who he is.
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9:48 |
: Think Sadaharu Oh could’ve been a successful MLB player?
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9:48 |
: Probably, yeah.
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9:48 |
: Hello, sir. Do you see J-Hey getting back to being a productive hitter this year? If not, I guess you hit him 8th and be happy with his glove and arm?
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9:49 |
: I do. But yes, if he doesn’t, then yeah, you drop him down in the order.
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9:49 |
: Who do you like better for this year and Rest of Career. Sano or Schwarber?
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9:51 |
: I think from a rate basis, Schwarber, but I don’t know that he’ll play as much as Sano. I think it’s an interesting question because Sano’s stock is down and Schwarber’s is at its peak, so the best long-term answer would seem to be Sano. But I just don’t trust Minnesota.
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9:51 |
: Do you foresee Andrew Toles as a top 30 or 20 outfielder this season? Does he continue his exceptional late-season/postseason form from last year?
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9:51 |
: I don’t foresee him being that good, no. But I do like him.
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9:51 |
: Do you like the Blue Jay signing of Salty or should they have gone more defense?
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9:52 |
: I think teams need to sign minor league deals with catchers heading into spring training because you always need lots of catchers to get your pitchers ready. If he sees significant major league action, we can revisit the decision then, but I don’t think it’s worth having much of an opinion on at the moment.
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9:52 |
: Would 2/$6 million get it done for Travis Wood? Rich or too little? Also would it help to possibly add consideration that in the second year he can start.
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9:52 |
: Seems light.
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9:52 |
: If Puig sucks for 2 months and Bellinger tears it up in AAA, does he come up?
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9:52 |
: I think Bellinger’s call-up decision is going to be more determined by how well he plays.
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9:53 |
: Do you think Joc makes another stride forward this year and becomes a Top-20 OF?
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9:54 | : Well, he was a top 20 outfielder last year, and he didn’t even get into a full complement of games. So, he doesn’t really need to stride forward much, he just needs to be as good as he was last year and maybe stay a little healthier. |
9:54 |
: Do you think that moonlight fared poorly at the poll at the beginning because fangraphs has a heavily white audience?
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9:55 |
: To be honest, it’s been awhile since I checked FG’s demographics, but in the past, nothing has stuck out as overly remarkable about our demos other than the heavy skew toward men over women.
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9:55 |
: Judging from the second poll, it seems likely that most of tonight’s participants have simply not seen the movie.
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9:55 |
: I’ll say something nice about the Rockies, Coors is aging quite nicely. Where does it rank in your current top ballparks? Hard to believe it’s the third oldest park in the NL.
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9:56 |
: It’s top 5. And the reason it ages nicely is because the team sets aside millions of dollars each offseason for refurbishments, even if those refurbishments are as simple as new paint for railings and girders. In other words, keeping the ballpark is a point of focus for the team, and it shows.
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9:56 |
: keeping the ballpark looking pristine, that should say
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9:57 |
: Staying on theme, what do you see from Trevor Story next year? Similar or little bit less production.
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9:57 |
: Similar if a little lower on the slugging percentage
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9:57 |
: What disastrous injuries/under-performances will wreck the Red Sox season a la 2014/2015?
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9:58 |
: Well, if you’re asking me to actually predict injuries – and I have to say, only a Yankees fan would ask someone to predict injuries like that – I’d say it would probably be Pedroia and Chris Sale.
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9:58 |
: But that’s a bad look. Don’t ask me to predict injuries!
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9:58 |
: David Dahl, the new face of the Rockies for the next couple years? Will he be a star?
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9:58 |
: I think he will be very good, but I expect Nolan Arenado to remain the face of the Rockies.
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9:59 |
: How do teams protect their valuations of players? If a team offers one prospect over another to a team, doesn’t that tell the other team how they value their players? Or does everyone know what everyone thinks about their players?
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10:00 |
: I think an isolated example of a certain team’s player valuation probably has a ton of noise in it, and isn’t predictive of their behavior. In addition, there is enough shuffling between front office employees and scouts that how most teams value their players probably isn’t the closely guarded secret that they would like it to be. To be honest, I find the whole secrecy thing to be a little bit ridiculous.
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10:00 |
: Do you think the Tigers have any chance of catching Cleveland this year?
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10:01 |
: There’s always a chance. Cleveland is good, but they are certainly not in “infallible” range. However, I am not particularly enthused about Detroit’s chances, so they would need to overperform AND see Cleveland underperform. It could happen though.
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10:01 |
: does Zymborksi look like bubbles from trailer park boys in real life?
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10:02 |
: Having never watched Trailer Park Boys, I really couldn’t say. But I will say that Dan Szymborski (you forgot the S you jerk!) is a really great guy and that you should meet him in person if you can!
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10:03 |
: OK everyone, thanks for hanging out, but I need to call it a night. I guess Jeff never did make it, but he’s allowed, as coaching his daughter is far more important than our little chats. Until next week, stay safe on those internets!
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Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Well, I disagree that Dozier likely will not garner more than JDL at the break, if he plays well. One, I think if he plays well in the first half, it quiets the concerns some may have had about him. Two, teams trading for him at the break would be in more of an urgency situation, and he would still be a great option that would not mean taking on much money. Three, there may be more competition for his services for him at the break, as there really wasn’t any demand for a 2B this offseason, even if he’s a power hitter.