New Study Finds Link Between Jet Lag, Performance
What happened to Clayton Kershaw in Game 6 of the NLCS? According to a new study by Northwestern University, maybe it was jet lag.
Looking at 20 major-league seasons and 40,000 games’ worth of data, researchers found that jet lag perceptibly “impairs” player and team performance. The study is likely to be passed around many major-league front offices and strength-and-training departments. In a sport where every team is looking for hidden value at the margins, the value of better rest and recovery is just beginning to be explored, understood and focused upon — and is perhaps a considerable inefficiency in the game.
Dr. Ravi Allada, a circadian-rhythms expert, led the study:
“The negative effects of jet lag we found are subtle, but they are detectable and significant. And they happen on both offense and defense and for both home and away teams, often in surprising ways….
“For Game 6, the teams had returned to Chicago from LA, and this time the Cubs scored five runs off of Kershaw, including two home runs. While it’s speculation, our research would suggest that jet lag was a contributing factor in Kershaw’s performance.”
One of the homers in question:
Of course, Kershaw did pitch on extra rest that start, and Kyle Hendricks himself did just fine after traveling back east, but perhaps the rest could not save Kershaw from the clutches of jet lag.
The study found that jet lag is a more powerful detrimental force when traveling from west to east. “This is a strong argument that the effect is due to the circadian clock, not the travel,” Allada said.
Allada and his researchers found the most impairing effects of jet lag, in terms of run production, were tied to baserunning inefficiency.
They found the influence of jet lag on pitchers most often manifests itself in the form of home runs allowed. “The effects are sufficiently large to erase the home-field advantage,” Allada said.
Perhaps most interesting from the study is the suggestion that pitchers should more often fly on commercial flights a day or two ahead of the team, and not on the team charter.
“If I were a baseball manager and my team was traveling across time zones — either to home or away — I would send my first starting pitcher a day or two ahead, so he could adjust his clock to the local environment,” Allada said.
Pitchers occasionally fly a day ahead of a team, but it’s not a regular practice, and I’m not aware of pitchers flying out two days ahead of time. Perhaps Kershaw should have flown out earlier, say on October 20, and enjoyed two days on the Magnificent Mile before his Game 6 start?
Of course, teams are already interested in combating travel fatigue, and fielding better rested, better recovered players.
In addition to a celebration room in their new Wrigley Field clubhouse, Cubs players also enjoy a “quiet room” with three beds, a place to rest and recover. In the NBA, the Golden State Warriors are among the teams on the vanguard of studying rest and recovery and putting practices in place. And, interestingly, home-court advantage is on the decline in the NBA. “Teams are smarter about their travel habits and getting rest these days,” Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban told ESPN. “Guys aren’t going out as often, so the road just isn’t as hard as it used to be.” Still, some believe certain NBA game outcomes are almost pre-determined due to travel and schedule considerations.
I know the Pirates are invested in rest and combating jet lag from my time covering the organization.
While on a road trip in Seattle covering the Pirates last season, my conversation with Jared Hughes in the Safeco Field clubhouse turned to his preferable type of sleeping eye mask. There was a relevant purpose to the interview.
I was reporting on a story about how teams deal with travel. Given that the Pirates were three time zones and 2,100 miles away from PNC Park, and in the midst of grinding stretch of 46 consecutive days of games or travel without a true off day, it seemed like an appropriate time.
I had been given a mask by my wife for an overnight flight to Europe a few years earlier, and while initially opposed to the idea, I felt it helped me sleep better by reducing light. I’ve adopted the mask as a regular practice.
“The key is the foam kind which does not touch your eyes. It’s really nice.” Hughes said of the eye mask. “It helped me sleep until 10 a.m. (Tuesday) because it was dark.
“Not everyone does it. I know some guys don’t like how it feels on their face.”
Not every player wore a mask, but all of them had been made aware of its benefits. Pirates players had met with sleep “experts” during spring training, who had advised players on the benefits of masks, traveling with their own pillow, and how to adjust to traveling across time zones which can disrupt our natural circadian rhythms.
On the first night after arriving to the Pacific time zone, Pirates shortstop Jordy Mercer said he plays Xbox to force himself to stay up later – while avoiding caffeine – to combat the disruption to his circadian rhythm.
“(The sleep experts) told us when we go east to west, the first night stay up as late as you can and force yourself to get used to it,” Mercer said of the sleep consultants. “That’s the biggest thing I took out of it… Get somewhat acclimated to the time change.
Before arriving in Pittsburgh, head athletic trainer Todd Tomczyk worked for innovative sports medicine and training staffs with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Indians. He’s curious about many things that can help players rest and recover. He even educated players about how blue wavelengths from smart phones and electronic devices can be disruptive to sleep. The Harvard Medical School has researched the dark side of blue light. The lesson? Always keep your smart phone on night mode.
“It masks the blue light,” Tomczyk said.
Others outside pro sports industries are also studying how to best rest and recover.
One of my first pieces at FanGraphs was tied in part to rest and recovery issues in examining whether home field advantage is becoming endangered. I spoke with Whoop CEO Will Ahmed, whose wearable technology start-up company studied more than 200 minor-league players last year. While the study wasn’t focused on jet lag, the study did find insufficient rest and recovery can have a quantifiable influence.
Ahmed found that, when athletes return home from a road trip, or traveled a distance for a road trip, they required two days to adjust. That’s similar to finding of the Northwestern study.
“We found that athletes, when traveling, on average got an hour less sleep than athletes that did not travel,” Ahmed said. “An hour less in bed, 45 minutes less sleep. That’s about 10% lower recovery. Conventional wisdom says the home team wins because they have their fans supporting them or they are playing in a familiar park. The study suggests the home team may win because they are better recovered and well-rested…
“There was a direct correlation between the higher your recovery and the faster your exit [batted ball] velocity. We found the same correlation with pitchers and fastballs,” Ahmed said. “I didn’t know for sure we were going to see such strong correlations with travel, recovery and performance. Those were a bit of a eureka [moment] with us and for people in Major League Baseball who saw this study.”
The next big thing in the majors might deal with how to extract more efficient performance from players. It might in part be tied to better understanding of rest and recovery, it might be tied to information from the wearable technology wave.
And if the Cubs and Dodgers meet again in the postseason, perhaps Kershaw will be flying out a day or two earlier for his start.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Very interesting Travis.
Would it be possible to do a follow-up post quantifying the findings? I am working my way through the paper but the walls of text make it difficult to decipher in a concise manner.
My own thoughts on jet lag, I am interested if there are quantifiable impacts on relief pitchers specifically traveling west for late games. Games that start at 10 pm EST and end at 1 am EST. Every year a small handful of college football teams from the Eastern and Central time zones travel to the west coast to play a late game and my anecdotal bias has led me to believe they suffer in the 2nd halves of these games. Similarly west coast teams traveling to the east coast for a noon kickoff getting off to incredibly slow starts in a game that feels like it starts at 9 am.
Thanks! There is enough there to write a follow up post at some point … I know the Whoop study (Whoop is a wearable tech startup) on minor league players claimed to find a decreased exit bat velocity and and throwing velocity for travel-lagged players, but I have not seen their study results.
Fantastic article, Travis. Love reading your stuff.
This is going to be interesting to see where some teams go, and where others don’t go, in terms of being on the cutting edge of providing rest/recovery time for their players. I love love the idea of sending your SP a day or two ahead to get accustomed to the new time zone in advance of the game.
Agree with everything you said.
One consequence of SPs travelling before the rest of the team would be that guys like Madison Bumgarner would be less frequently available for pinch-hitting duties.
Sure, but if a 5 win starting pitcher will be worth roughly his regular 0.16 wins given the time to acclimate and lets say 0.13 if he isn’t, then you are giving up 0.03 wins to have him available as a PHer. I used 32 starts and 5 vs 4 total fWAR for those figures… mostly pulled from butt 🙂
Now how much more win value do the Giants actually gain from having Bumgarner as a PHer, versus anyone else on their bench? They gain a little because it is an extra body, sure. Beyond that, a 0.003 bump for a single PA would be the average expectation for a slightly below average hitter [he’s been a 90 OPS+ hitter the last three years] if he’s taking the place of a replacement level hitter.
And, if my count is right, he has actually PH in about 1.5% of his non-pitching games 2014-2016, so about a 1:70 chance of actually utilizing that 0.003 bump, so we’re talking a pretty big advantage in the pitching dept versus PH.
IMO, the drop-off in expected pitching performance would have to be almost nothing to warrant holding back the SP. And if it is almost nothing then this article doesn’t exist 🙂
I was just making an observation, not saying the PH thing should impact a team’s decision on whether to send the pitcher ahead.
Thanks so much! Thanks for reading. I think a number of teams are taking rest and recovery seriously …. key is getting players to buy in (and then quantifying meaningful improvement)
I think it’ll be a tough choice for teams aware of this whether to try and push players into a night-shift type sleep cycle for more alertness, or avoid doing so for better health.
The other side of the blue light phenomena that’s less publicized is that shift work has very well documented negative health outcomes. Damage to the immune system and increased risk of heart disease and diabetes seem to have as much to do with lack of exposure to the normal cycle of the sun (not just the light itself but the varying wavelength as the day progresses) as it does with night-time exposure to blue light.
No idea what the short term effect on athletic performance would be, but if it’s causing those other problems its a reasonable inference.
Moving players away from the “wake up at noon, go to sleep at 4AM” cycle that many major leaguers seem to fall into might have some large health outcomes? Just a theory.
MLB needs to shorten the season back to 154.
I like a shorter season, too.
…And to make regular season series matter, extending them to five games called after the third win. It would disrupt the evenness of game totals but would be interesting measure and way to focus the season. 30 five game series is more comprehensible than 40 to 50 series of different length.
Absurd.
I went right to my phone and changed brightness settings. thx. I thought it was fairly common to send ahead the first starter of the next series.
Maybe it’s the elevation level at Wrigley being 200ft+ higher than at Dodger Stadium that helps this particular ball get out. I don’t know it seems like playing 162 game and half the season being on the road that jet lag shouldn’t have as much of an impact….and as much as us guys who look so much into marginal value in stats and other things would hate to say this but in a playoff atmosphere you’d think his adrenaline would be pumping and wouldn’t notice something as minuscule as jet lag.
The study found that away teams travelling east gave up on average 0.073 more HRs/game and 0.162 more runs/game….or 1 more HR every 13.7 games and 1 more run every 6.2 games.
When you have monstrous sample sizes, any consistent effect can be “significant”, but significance does not necessarily mean that it is meaningful and it really has zero predictive or explanatory power for any 1-game performance.
So that Kershaw speculation is pretty silly. They probably have the necessary data to see how jet lag specifically affects Kershaw, that would be more applicable that using data from all pitchers…but still not very insightful.
And those are regular season numbers, yes? Wherein a visiting team can travel from the west to the east to meet a team in the middle of a homestand? What about the playoffs, when the teams are traveling together, changes this, if at all? And of course, if jet lag mattered in that game, then Kyle Hendricks’ performance deserves even more praise.
Very interesting article, thanks Travis. As a fan anecdotally I’ve tended to mentally write off games when my team is playing a game after traveling (more than a short distance) without an off day. Seems the research is starting to agree.
On the Kershaw bit though: the hitters batting against Kershaw are going through exactly the same jet lag he is. Is there evidence that pitchers suffer worse than hitters?
The article cites this fangraphs community post. That is pretty cool.
http://www.fangraphs.com/community/what-is-more-important-for-a-fastball-velocity-location-or-movement-2/
I’m no statistics expert, so take this with a grain of salt. It doesn’t look to me like they corrected for multiple comparisons, and given a large number of tests you expect some (not as many as they’ve found I think) to come up significant by chance. Maybe that type of correction is not common practice when someone is running a regression. Not sure.
Here are two facts:
-The Mariners have under-performed their projections more than any other team over a significant period. See: recent Jeff Sullivan article.
-The Mariners travel a longer distance each season than any other MLB team by a good margin
Some of this I feel would be captured by the projections, as it might appear as the players having a lower true talent. However, it might impact new players, causing them to underperform their projections. It’s also possible players leaving the Mariners might outperform theirs. Just something to think about.
I would personally prefer if teams played other teams in the same time zone more often. Selig tried to implement radical realignment and it failed since everyone wanted to play the Yankees and Red Sox or whomever, but I’d actually prefer the A’s playing the NL west coast teams more than eastern AL teams.
I’d like to think this information would be used by the league to give priority to minimizing Short cross country trips for West Coast teams, particularly Seattle, which has to travel substantially more than every other team in the majors every year.
Very cool finding. So does this mean that teams that travel short distances to the same time zone tend to not be affected by being away? For example, would a Subway series not expect to yield a home field advantage to either team?
I posted in the expansion/realignment article on 1/20 by Travis. In my post I put more than a expansion, realignment, relocation, etc. I also put what schedule could look like. I geographic focused divisions could certainly help with less travel. I think implementing better scheduling with less travel could produce better performance and less injuries. I’ll paste my crazy what if I were an omnipotent MLB commissioner model below.
North
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins
St Louis Cardinals
South
Atlanta Braves
Austin Athletics
Charlotte White Sox
Houston Astros
Miami Marlins
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
Washington Nationals
East
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
Montreal Expos
New York Mets
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
Toronto Blue Jays
West
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers
Portland Mavericks
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
144 game schedule
84 = 12 games vs each division opponent
48 = 6 games vs rotationally paired division Ex: (East vs West and North vs South)
12 = 6 games vs paired opponents from the other 2 remaining divisions. The pairing will be determined by matching teams with the same ranking from the pervious seasons divisional standings. Stipulation to the pairings could occur to produce a matchup between previous season’s World Series opponents.
25 weeks 6 games a week
April 3 Opening Night and September 24 last regular season game
(Tuesday-Thursday) (Friday-Sunday)
Monday is universal off day except for holidays and Monday Night Baseball (Monday Tuesday Wednesday series)
All Star is Week
June 26-July 1 week 13 of the season
-Continue with the timed tournament style Home Run Derby format
-Each division has its own All Star team
– The 4 teams matchup according to their same rotational pairings for scheduling Ex: (East vs West and North vs South)
12 team Playoff
-4 division champs have 1st round bye
-1st round: 8 teams: 2nd place teams host 3 game series vs 4 Wild Card teams
-2nd round: 8 teams: 4 division champs host 5 game series
-3rd round: 4 teams: 7 game series
-World Series: 7 game series
If MLB is going to do a radical realignment, it makes more sense to base the choices on time zone (more because of TV ratings than jet lag). There are currently 14 teams in the East, 8 in the Central, 7 teams in the Pacific time zone (I am including Arizona since they do not observe daylight savings) and the lonely Rockies in the Mountain zone. If there is expansion, 2 teams could be added to the East and every team but the Rockies would play the majority of their games in their home time zone.
I’m sorry, but any study that tries to draw conclusions about a single data point is clearly desperate and invalidates itself. The odds that Keyshawn was affected by jet lag on a single game in the postseason, with extra rest and consistent travel, are lower than the odds that a fly hit him in the eye right when he threw the pitch.
This is a common tactic when publishing a study. You may have used statistically valid measures to find evidence in support of an effect, but it’s likely to remain unappreciated unless you can tell a story, usually involving a relatable anecdote, that helps brings it to life.
(See how boring my point is without an example – say, “the Monty Hall problem” – that provides a touchpoint while being at least vaguely relevant?
I’m surprised there’s a bigger effect when flying from West to East. Given that baseball teams already play a fair number of day games, I would think a West Coast team playing at 7pm ET (4pm PT) would be better off than an East Cost team playing at 10pm ET for a 7pm PT start.