FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/26/16

by Paul Swydan

January 26, 2016

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Paul Swydan: Let’s talk some baseball.

9:00	Jeff Zimmerman: sounds good

9:01	birdie slanders: Reddick – extended or traded?

9:01	Paul Swydan: I would say traded, but I’ll admit I haven’t been closely following this situation.

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Neither have I

9:01	The Dude of NY: I remember reading in one of the chats that Fangraphs+ will be free. Is that true? If so, when?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I believe that is the case, yes. Late next month.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably when Eno gets done with the edits.

9:02	Billy from CO: What should I expect from Ian Desmond this year? Is all hope lost with him, or is there a reasonable chance he can be a top 10 dynasty SS for the next few years?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Somewhere in the middle probably. I’m not banking on him to be top 10, but that says as much about the new blood as it does Desmond.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: If you look, seven of the past eight-half seasons have been the same (good), just this year’s first half was bad. I think some team will get a bargain on him.

9:04	Billy from CO: Duffy or Panik?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Panik, but I like them both.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Duffy, but close.

9:06	David: Assuming we are in bizarro-world where the Dickerson/McGee+ deal goes through, what would it take for the Indians to get Jennings?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure it would take a ton, given that the Rays would be the ones with less trade leverage, but then I’m also not a huge Jennings fan. I’ve always thought of him as a little overrated.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Why would they really want Jennings? I think the Indians could do better.

9:07	Ryan: London games sound fun for fans, but sound like a disaster for players. Wasn’t hurting Clayton Kershaw with that stupid Australia plane-ride enough to say that?

9:08	Paul Swydan: More than that, I just don’t see the appeal of trying to break into a sports market that is already incredibly rabid for one sport.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, it will come down to money. I do expect to east coast teams to be involved with it though

9:09	Biscuit: Favorite closer in waiting to snag later in fantasy drafts?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Seems like there will need to be multiple Tampa options.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Cingrani and the stud in Arizona …. Silvino Bracho

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, had to look the name up.

9:11

Jake: Dynasty league question: We always hear people say that ‘flags fly forever’ and as defending champ believe me I want to fly another one this year. But I’m awfully tempted to keep Wil Myers over Adrian Gonzalez given the 8+ year age difference, even though I think Gonzalez is an easy choice in a redraft league. At what point does age become a legitimate consideration in dynasty?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I would just take Gonzalez. I’m not so sure that Myers will ever be as good as Gonzalez has been or will be.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Even when going for it, you can still look to future. I would keep Myers.

9:12	Mike D: Paul, is it you who doesn’t like Joe Maddon? Can I ask why?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Not me, I don’t really like, but don’t dislike him either.

9:13	Paul Swydan: It IS me. It is in large part due to his breeding animosity toward the Red Sox, and partially because he flaunts how smart he thinks he is constantly. Which leads to him getting too cute.

9:15	Bob Smiley: dickerson to the Rays? would love to see him in SF. or Houston. any other contenders in the mix for him?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Sorry, got distracted.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: He would fit in with the previously mentioned Indians

9:16	Paul Swydan: It honestly is hard to get a read on what the Rockies are doing. They make a point to talk to very few people, so it’s likely that rumors about them are coming from third parties, which may or may not be trustworthy.

9:16	Paul Swydan: But yes, I’d love to see him in SF or Houston. Or any team that has a legit chance of winning. Boston’d work too.

9:17	Deece: the Canadian media has poisoned me against the Jays b/c of how biased they are towards the jays and their players. So realistically where is stroman next year top 20-30 pitcher? less? The media makes it sound like he is an ace but i see a #2 possible 1.5

9:17	Paul Swydan: I think top 20-30 is reasonable, yes.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: For now, 20-30 sounds good, but I would like to see him make it a full season

9:18

iron wolf: Hello guys: I have the #1 pick in the prospect draft in my AL-only league. I need depth. The best offers for the pick: 1) Pompey + Jennings + Holland (all cheap) + the final pick in the first round; 2) T. Walker+ Daniel Norris + 9th pick in the second round. I’m not sanguine about Jennings having a bounceback season and I think, in a league that has QS as one of the cats that Norris can be solid. I’m in love with his curve and changeup and his velo ticked up after the trade to Detroit. Thoughts?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Definitely don’t like the first offer. The second offer could be good for sure, though I would try to do better than second round.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends if Moncada is available. I would take him over those two offers.

9:20	Who_Is_Zorbist?: This expos thing on MLB network is awesome so far.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Good note.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Cool

9:20	Who_Is_Zorbist?: Who won the Big Trade Wade/Myers deal? The Royals got 2 WS appearances, but the Rays got Odorizzi, turned Myers in to Souza and Jake Bauers, turned Montgomery into Erasmo, and still have hopes for Leonard.

9:21	Paul Swydan: I would say the Royals won, to be honest. The Rays didn’t do poorly, but I don’t see them as the winner.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure if there needs to be a winner. Both teams got what they wanted.

9:21	Stew: Braves take on Aaron Hill and his contract for Dbacks sup. pick…Can Coppy pull it off???

9:22	Paul Swydan: Would think it unlikely that the Dbacks and Braves make another trade this offseason.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Aaron Hill will need to be involved in a bad contract swap. Loshe?

9:23	Brett: What is your favorite baseball season of all time? (combination of who won, dominant individual seasons, good storylines… whatever makes a good season in your eyes)

9:23	Paul Swydan: Not sure how I could give you a different season than 2004.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: ’85

9:24	paul: Which low home attendance MLB fanbases seem to have a surprisingly large Fangraphs fandom?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Huh, that’s a good question. I guess Atlanta comes to mind first.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Rays

9:25	Paul Swydan: But maybe they’re just more vocal.

9:25	Billy Corman: Most writers/prognosticators think Corey Seager moves to 3B because he lacks ideal lateral movement. Do you agree? If so, how long does he last at SS?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Go back a decade and people were saying the EXACT same thing about Troy Tulowitzki. Let’s not make Seager a third baseman until he’s at least played a full big league season.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t seen him play much at short to make a call.

9:27

Who_Is_Zorbist?: It is said over and over when talking Lucroy, “Catchers aren’t traded in season”. How legitimate is this concern? 13 new pitchers, new team philosophy, etc. It makes sense, and you have to go back to ’09 and Victor Martinez to find a comparable in-season trade that was made. Welington Castillo, a 2 then 3 WAR catcher with 3 years of control left was traded last May for a 26 year old AAA reliever who has since been DFA’d twice. Castillo seemed to have way more value than was realized. Are speculators right, in that catchers don’t have the same value in season as every other position?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I think there is something to that notion, that catchers need to do so much prep work with pitchers that they have a longer learning curve. But I think a player with Lucroy’s bat — assuming it comes all the way back — deadens a lot of those concerns.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Their value could be lower, but tough to tell. I think it comes to if teams need one or not.

9:29

Murdoc: What do you think of this far out idea for the Rockies; Give every minor league position player an Eno Sarris approved pitch grip sheet before the offseason. Whether or not the player does anything in the offseason is up to them. When spring rolls around, have every position player throw a bullpen session with said standard gripped pitches. Then evaluate shape and speed to find new pitchers.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Uh, I can’t see any position players agreeing to that. But you’re thinking. I like that.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Not the right time or place, but at HS and lower, I think every kid should practice pitching some.

9:30	George: Can you rank the AL East starting rotations?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Yes. Yes I can.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Rays Red Sox Jays Orioles Yankees

9:32	Paul Swydan: Tulo, Bogaerts, Miller, Hardy, Gregorious

9:32	Biscuit: Hey Fellas, when can we expect more content from Mr. Farnsworth? Seems like ages since the last team prospect write up!

9:32	Paul Swydan: New list coming tomorrow!

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Good new Paul

9:33	Adam: Are any of these worth keeping in ottoneu 5×5 ($400 cap, 40 roster spots): $53 Miggy, $33 JUpton, $28 Gomez?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Probably not. Maybe Upton. I have Gomez at $21 and I’m right on the edge. Can’t picture keeping him at $28 though.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Close to all being at actual value, they could go for more. Inflation can be huge in some leagues

9:34	Balls mahoney: I know that the Mariners are probably out of money and are high on Marte, but at what $ point does Ian Desmond make some sense considering giving up the draft pick as well? A three or four year deal in this Cano-Cruz-King window makes sense no?

9:34	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think that is the right play for Seattle.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Not really. Keep Marte and spend the money (if they have it) on a starter

9:36

Who_Is_Zorbist?: “The field dimensions are within the range found optimal by FIFA: 110–120 yards (100–110 m) long by 70–80 yards (64–73 m) wide”. Does London have a stadium large enough to hold a baseball field? We can play exhibitions with smaller than normal fields, but you need 40 feet behind home plate, and can’t have CF only be 300 ft deep in a MLB game.

9:36	Paul Swydan: I mean, it’s a big city, I’m sure they have a field big enough somewhere. I wouldn’t worry about that end of it.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:37	Aaron: Some national writers look for TEX to be a strong contender. Steamer and ZIPS are less optimistic. And, of course, D. Cameron is on record that they are “bad,” their division title was due entirely to luck and sequencing. Your thoughts?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Pretty sure Dave expressed optimism for the Rangers in his chat last week. Either way, I lean toward Texas being a contender. Perhaps not a strong contender, but a team right in the thick of it for sure.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they could repeat. Darvish will help and they sent a ton of players to the DL last year. Also, they have 3 studs in the upper minors who can help.

9:39

Tom Brunansky: I have sometimes tried to explain baseball to British people. I have seldom found anything so frustrating. They don’t get it at all, but the one thing they’re sure of is that it’s stupid. A lot of that is because to them it seems to vaguely resembles rounders, which they think of as a kids’ game. And they can’t understand the count, because there’s nothing equivalent in cricket.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I mean, I’m sure there are British people who love baseball. The BBC has broadcast baseball in the past, and done a good job of doing so. I just would go to other markets first is all.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Their loss

9:40	Jamie: Early on, it looks like Mookie Betts is ranked as a top 5 OF across most sites going into 2016. What say you?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I think he can be. Top five may be a bit strong at the moment though. Let’s say top 10. 🙂

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: probably in the 5th to 10th range

9:41

natsfan: Bullpen question: I play in a 10-team AL-only keeper league. $280 cap, 25 man rosters (extra pitcher and utility). I have Miller $10, Robertson $19 and Sanchez $3. Many closers available (Chapman, Kimbrel, K-Rod, Perkins, plus the unsettled TOR/SEA/OAK/TEX pens? Are any of my guys worth keeping?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Yeah I would hang on to Robertson at least.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Keep Robertson for now. Sanchez is pretty cheap for $3 also (could start)

9:43	Sad Sam: How long until Yoan Mocada is an every day player? First call up?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I would say probably 2017 at the earliest. If the Sox contend as planned this season, I don’t see them bringing him up, assuming everyone is healthy.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Late season call-up, 2017 regular. Contact issue are keeping him down longer.

9:45	Sad Sam: Do you see Blake Swihart changing postions? I can’t see where he would go. LF? 1B?

9:45	Paul Swydan: No, why would he change positions? Didn’t Farrell just annoint him the starting catcher.

9:45	Paul Swydan: ?

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Not this early in his career.

9:46	GoRox: What kind of package will Colorado get for Dickerson?

9:47	Paul Swydan: It seems that the Rockies are targeting pitching in every trade. This isn’t exactly unwise, but trading the guy who is one of your three best hitters to get more pitching strikes me as counterproductive.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I figured they could get a decent haul, but the Rockies will hold out for as much pitching as possible.

9:49	Sad Sam: Do the Red Sox have a top 5 defensive OF w Castillo, Betts, Bradley and Young?

9:49	Paul Swydan: It’s a strong possibility, yes.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably, Pirates and Royals are also in the discussion

9:51

Jojo: Cameron and Cistulli were talking Rockies on the podcast, mentioned how their geographical situation and altitude puts them at a huge disadvantage. One presumes this applies to Mexican baseball as well, especially since the Red Devils play in Mexico City at 7300 ft. Has there been any investigation/study into stat lines in the Mexican league that could possibly shine line on the Coors conundrum?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Not that I’m aware of, no. Anyone else?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: None I know of

9:52	Ed in Iowa: If the 10 or so primary Fangraphs writers were a major league front office would they be league average? Better? Or is there some area of expertise that is woefully lacking from the group?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Player development would be a big challenge.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Missing connections to others in the industry which normal front office people have

9:54	Fogcode: If Reyes starts the year suspended who do the Rockies open with at shortstop?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, it’d probably be Daniel Descalso.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Can’t we hope on Story?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Sure, but I doubt they’ll call him up before June.

9:55

Sidd Finch: What happens with Jenrry Mejia? I guess the Mets appear to still have faith in him, they just made a deal with him to avoid salary arbitration. Do we know if he’s eligible for the post-season next year? Even if he does preform well, how do you think the suspensions effect his trade value?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I would guess he starts in a set-up role, and probably won’t move beyond that.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Truthfully, I just don’t know … I will have to think about it more

9:57	Who_Is_Zorbist?: Wha…? Kiermaier, Jennings, Souza, Guyer, Mahtook? That’s 5 CF, and that’s your best defensive OF.

9:57	Paul Swydan: The question was whether Boston could have a TOP FIVE defensive outfield, not the TOP defensive outfield.

9:58	Brett: Will someone sign Greg Holland to an incentive-laden two-year deal, or is he just going to sit around for a year and then sign with somebody? If the latter, can he collect unemployment?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I would assume so, yes. Not sure about unemployment. I’m going to guess no, however.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe on the contract, but he isn’t pitching this season. I expect teams will wait.