2016 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
White Sox batters produced the lowest collective WAR among all 30 teams in 2015, combining the worst park-adjusted offense in the majors (-108.1 runs below average overall) with also the worst defense (-60.3 runs below average). The result: a mere three wins above replacement level as a group.

That’s not to say there weren’t encouraging invidual contributions. Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton, for example, produced nearly eight wins between them. On the one hand, that’s a positive. On the other hand, what it reveals is that the rest of the roster provided less value than freely available talent might, in theory, supply. Gordon Beckham, Conor Gillaspie, and Mike Olt — who accounted for roughly two-thirds of the club’s third-base starts — recorded a -1.5 WAR between them. Emilio Bonifacio, Micah Johnson, and Carlos Sanchez — who made all but seven starts at second base — posted a collective -1.3 WAR. Those outputs quite possibly don’t represent the true talents of all those players, but they certainly had an adverse effect on Chicago’s win-loss record.

The advantage for a club which possesses glaring holes is that addressing those holes with merely serviceable replacements represents a considerable upgrade. If the newly acquired tandem of Todd Frazier (624 PA, 3.7 zWAR) and Brett Lawrie (509 PA, 1.8 zWAR) approximate their projections in 2016, they’ll conspire to produce a roughly eight-win improvement by themselves.

Pitchers
Leo Tolstoy writes in one of his cold Russian novels that “All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” The veracity of that particular comment is debatable. How it’s relevant to the White Sox rotation, though, is because of left-handed ace Chris Sale (195.2 IP, 5.9 zWAR), who is rendered dull almost for his lack of weaknesses. Sale is actually projected to produce the second-best season of his career. He’s accompanied by two other above-average left-handers in Jose Quintana (195.1 IP, 4.1 zWAR) and Carlos Rodon (158.1 IP, 3.2 zWAR).

While a relief ace — and strong bullpen, in general — is of considerable benefit to a club on a postseason run, the advantages are less pronounces for a team that finishes the season 19 games out of first place. In either case, Chicago continues to employ one of the league’s top pitchers on a per-inning basis in David Robertson (60.1 IP, 1.3 zWAR). The remainder of the bullpen bears a strong resemblance to every other, roughly average bullpen.

Bench/Prospects
Shortstop Tim Anderson (504 PA, 0.7 zWAR), who enters his age-23 season, receives the top projection among all rookie-eligible field players who aren’t also 28-year-old catchers. He’s exhibited poor plate discipline almost uniformly in the minors but appears to have demonstrated sufficient production on contact — and defense, naturally — to profile as a solid bench player in the present. With regard to pitchers, there are fewer obvious options. Zach Phillips (41.1 IP, 0.2 zWAR) merits the top forecast among White Sox rookie-eligible pitchers — and also the only such forecast that’s also a positive number and also he’s a LOOGY.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Todd Frazier	R	30	3B	624	78	144	30	2	25	80	12	7
Adam Eaton	L	27	CF	669	93	164	28	9	9	54	21	11
Jose Abreu	R	29	1B	611	84	157	30	2	29	89	1	2
Brett Lawrie	R	26	3B	509	55	119	21	2	15	53	5	2
Tyler Saladino	R	26	3B	463	54	97	13	4	9	41	20	4
Dioner Navarro	B	32	C	306	26	72	11	0	8	32	1	0
Alex Avila	L	29	C	350	32	60	12	0	9	29	0	1
Jerry Sands	R	28	RF	375	42	76	13	2	14	43	1	1
Melky Cabrera	B	31	LF	596	71	154	28	3	11	64	5	2
Kevan Smith	R	28	C	405	43	86	15	2	9	38	1	1
Tim Anderson	R	23	SS	504	55	124	17	5	9	42	24	8
Carlos Sanchez	B	24	2B	570	57	126	24	3	6	43	10	5
Jake Peter	L	23	2B	566	59	123	20	4	4	42	11	3
Matt Davidson	R	25	3B	580	63	106	20	1	21	61	1	1
Dayan Viciedo	R	27	1B	438	51	103	18	3	16	52	0	0
Mike Olt	R	27	3B	386	41	69	14	0	15	41	1	1
Rob Brantly	L	26	C	342	33	77	13	1	6	34	0	1
Dan Black	B	28	1B	427	51	89	15	2	13	46	2	1
Adam LaRoche	L	36	1B	477	51	94	17	1	18	57	1	0
Jason Coats	R	26	LF	574	63	130	28	2	16	66	7	3
Daniel Fields	L	25	CF	470	47	90	18	5	9	38	13	5
Jacob May	B	24	CF	421	43	90	12	2	6	32	22	12
Avisail Garcia	R	25	RF	501	61	123	15	3	13	58	7	5
Leury Garcia	B	25	SS	352	36	79	11	3	3	23	21	7
Hector Sanchez	B	26	C	225	20	49	9	0	6	28	0	0
Andy Parrino	B	30	SS	404	37	75	13	2	6	27	2	1
Chris Curley	R	28	SS	397	42	84	15	2	10	40	4	3
Adam Engel	R	24	CF	495	53	92	12	4	7	34	30	11
Nick Delmonico	L	23	3B	272	30	56	17	0	7	28	2	2
J.B. Shuck	L	29	RF	370	40	87	13	3	2	32	7	5
Gerson Montilla	R	26	3B	476	48	104	15	1	11	42	5	5
Courtney Hawkins	R	22	LF	431	48	80	16	2	16	50	4	4
Justin Sellers	R	30	SS	248	22	52	10	1	2	16	1	1
Matt Tuiasosopo	R	30	RF	391	46	72	13	0	13	43	1	1
Trey Michalczewski	B	21	3B	569	58	107	23	3	11	55	4	4
Neftali Soto	R	27	1B	352	35	76	14	0	6	31	1	0
Chris Jacobs	R	27	1B	404	42	72	13	1	9	35	2	1
Joey DeMichele	L	25	2B	533	49	101	20	3	5	38	9	4
Steve Lombardozzi	B	27	2B	391	33	90	14	1	1	24	8	3
Eudy Pina	R	25	RF	425	42	79	13	4	7	36	7	4
Danny Hayes	L	25	1B	483	48	85	18	2	8	42	0	1
Drew Garcia	B	30	SS	320	24	59	13	1	2	19	4	3
Tony Thomas	R	29	2B	413	37	73	16	3	9	35	8	3
Tyler Colvin	L	30	RF	338	31	64	13	3	6	30	2	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Todd Frazier	624	7.4%	21.2%	.194	.289	.255	.318	.449	.337
Adam Eaton	669	8.4%	17.6%	.123	.331	.277	.352	.400	.341
Jose Abreu	611	7.5%	19.5%	.220	.316	.285	.352	.505	.361
Brett Lawrie	509	6.3%	21.8%	.151	.303	.255	.310	.406	.313
Tyler Saladino	463	6.9%	21.2%	.115	.278	.232	.290	.347	.290
Dioner Navarro	306	7.5%	15.7%	.126	.283	.259	.314	.385	.304
Alex Avila	350	14.6%	33.1%	.133	.297	.203	.321	.336	.298
Jerry Sands	375	10.1%	26.9%	.178	.282	.229	.309	.407	.315
Melky Cabrera	596	6.2%	12.1%	.122	.303	.281	.325	.403	.316
Kevan Smith	405	6.2%	23.0%	.125	.285	.232	.290	.357	.284
Tim Anderson	504	2.6%	27.2%	.112	.340	.257	.283	.369	.298
Carlos Sanchez	570	4.7%	20.2%	.091	.293	.239	.281	.330	.273
Jake Peter	566	5.8%	19.1%	.076	.287	.235	.284	.311	.268
Matt Davidson	580	8.1%	36.2%	.164	.289	.203	.276	.367	.281
Dayan Viciedo	438	5.5%	21.2%	.177	.289	.253	.299	.430	.313
Mike Olt	386	8.8%	36.3%	.171	.278	.199	.275	.370	.285
Rob Brantly	342	4.4%	19.0%	.103	.280	.240	.275	.343	.269
Dan Black	427	9.8%	26.9%	.153	.299	.235	.312	.388	.304
Adam LaRoche	477	11.5%	25.2%	.175	.270	.226	.317	.401	.309
Jason Coats	574	4.5%	20.6%	.149	.280	.242	.280	.391	.293
Daniel Fields	470	7.9%	31.9%	.131	.305	.213	.284	.344	.285
Jacob May	421	4.8%	24.0%	.087	.295	.231	.272	.318	.279
Avisail Garcia	501	5.4%	23.6%	.129	.326	.265	.311	.394	.312
Leury Garcia	352	4.5%	25.0%	.080	.321	.242	.280	.322	.281
Hector Sanchez	225	4.9%	24.0%	.129	.285	.236	.277	.365	.278
Andy Parrino	404	7.7%	29.0%	.096	.280	.204	.270	.300	.255
Chris Curley	397	4.0%	25.4%	.132	.280	.226	.263	.358	.274
Adam Engel	495	6.7%	31.7%	.091	.293	.203	.264	.294	.269
Nick Delmonico	272	5.5%	28.3%	.151	.287	.222	.266	.373	.280
J.B. Shuck	370	7.0%	9.5%	.074	.281	.260	.311	.334	.290
Gerson Montilla	476	5.5%	23.3%	.113	.288	.235	.279	.348	.280
Courtney Hawkins	431	6.0%	39.0%	.172	.298	.202	.256	.374	.278
Justin Sellers	248	4.8%	17.3%	.079	.270	.229	.273	.308	.257
Matt Tuiasosopo	391	10.7%	33.2%	.152	.294	.211	.303	.363	.295
Trey Michalczewski	569	7.0%	33.9%	.120	.302	.206	.268	.326	.264
Neftali Soto	352	6.3%	23.3%	.098	.292	.233	.284	.331	.271
Chris Jacobs	404	8.7%	36.4%	.117	.306	.200	.282	.317	.269
Joey DeMichele	533	5.6%	29.1%	.083	.285	.204	.251	.287	.243
Steve Lombardozzi	391	5.1%	13.8%	.052	.286	.248	.289	.300	.265
Eudy Pina	425	5.6%	31.3%	.107	.281	.201	.252	.308	.252
Danny Hayes	483	10.6%	30.6%	.108	.283	.200	.287	.308	.266
Drew Garcia	320	4.4%	29.1%	.070	.279	.198	.241	.268	.230
Tony Thomas	413	5.1%	37.5%	.127	.286	.189	.235	.316	.246
Tyler Colvin	338	5.3%	32.5%	.117	.289	.203	.249	.320	.250

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Todd Frazier	624	5.1	111	4	3.7	Pinky Whitney
Adam Eaton	669	5.2	110	-4	3.2	Johnny Damon
Jose Abreu	611	6.6	136	-2	3.1	Willie Horton
Brett Lawrie	509	4.6	98	-1	1.8	Kevin Kouzmanoff
Tyler Saladino	463	3.8	77	9	1.8	Hector Luna
Dioner Navarro	306	4.4	94	-2	1.4	Milt May
Alex Avila	350	3.6	84	-3	1.1	Scott Hatteberg
Jerry Sands	375	4.4	98	2	1.0	Ozzie Timmons
Melky Cabrera	596	4.9	102	-4	1.0	Shannon Stewart
Kevan Smith	405	3.6	80	-5	0.8	Blake Barthol
Tim Anderson	504	4.0	80	-6	0.7	Carlos Garcia
Carlos Sanchez	570	3.3	70	5	0.7	Diory Hernandez
Jake Peter	566	3.2	66	4	0.4	Martin Prado
Matt Davidson	580	3.4	78	-3	0.4	Jared Sandberg
Dayan Viciedo	438	4.7	101	-2	0.4	Kevin Grijak
Mike Olt	386	3.4	78	-1	0.4	Shane Andrews
Rob Brantly	342	3.3	71	-2	0.4	Matt Merullo
Dan Black	427	4.3	94	1	0.3	Jeff Bailey
Adam LaRoche	477	4.5	99	-2	0.3	Lee Stevens
Jason Coats	574	3.9	85	1	0.2	Mark Smith
Daniel Fields	470	3.4	75	-2	0.2	Larry Whisenton
Jacob May	421	3.0	64	4	0.1	Virgilio Silverio
Avisail Garcia	501	4.4	95	-5	0.1	Matt Murton
Leury Garcia	352	3.5	68	-2	0.1	Curtis Wilkerson
Hector Sanchez	225	3.6	78	-5	0.1	Ramon Castro
Andy Parrino	404	2.8	59	2	0.1	Doug Baker
Chris Curley	397	3.2	71	-3	0.1	Andujar Cedeno
Adam Engel	495	2.8	56	6	0.1	Kenny Kelly
Nick Delmonico	272	3.4	76	-1	0.0	Jamie Taylor
J.B. Shuck	370	3.7	81	1	-0.1	Terry Bogener
Gerson Montilla	476	3.3	74	-3	-0.2	Tommy Whiteman
Courtney Hawkins	431	3.1	73	4	-0.2	Willie Magallanes
Justin Sellers	248	2.9	62	-2	-0.2	Kevin Baez
Matt Tuiasosopo	391	3.7	85	-6	-0.4	Kurt Airoso
Trey Michalczewski	569	2.9	65	-1	-0.5	Corey Smith
Neftali Soto	352	3.4	71	2	-0.6	Mike Eylward
Chris Jacobs	404	3.0	67	2	-0.8	Sean Freeman
Joey DeMichele	533	2.5	50	4	-0.9	Eric Nelson
Steve Lombardozzi	391	3.2	65	-7	-1.0	Bien Figueroa
Eudy Pina	425	2.6	56	5	-1.0	Cecil Rodriques
Danny Hayes	483	2.9	67	2	-1.1	Chris Weinke
Drew Garcia	320	2.1	42	-2	-1.1	Chris Petersen
Tony Thomas	413	2.5	52	-5	-1.5	Kody Kirkland
Tyler Colvin	338	2.7	58	-5	-1.7	Kevin Koslofski

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Chris Sale	L	27	29	29	195.7	241	41	20	165	70	65
Jose Quintana	L	27	31	31	195.3	166	47	17	198	87	81
Carlos Rodon	L	23	25	25	158.3	169	63	19	144	72	67
David Robertson	R	31	60	0	60.3	83	17	6	46	20	19
Erik Johnson	R	26	27	26	141.7	120	61	18	145	79	74
John Danks	L	31	28	28	166.0	114	50	24	182	96	90
Zach Putnam	R	28	52	0	55.0	61	23	5	48	22	21
Nate Jones	R	30	49	0	54.3	63	19	5	48	22	21
Zach Duke	L	33	67	0	54.7	62	24	7	48	25	23
Dan Jennings	L	29	56	0	57.3	53	22	5	57	27	25
Jake Petricka	R	28	66	0	70.7	55	26	6	70	33	31
Matt Albers	R	33	29	0	33.0	24	10	3	33	15	14
Jesse Crain	R	34	17	0	17.0	18	7	2	16	7	7
Zach Phillips	L	29	37	0	41.3	42	19	4	39	20	19
Onelki Garcia	L	26	28	2	43.3	44	26	6	42	25	23
Josh Wall	R	29	37	0	43.7	39	19	5	44	24	22
Chris Beck	R	25	20	20	105.3	59	36	15	123	67	63
Terance Marin	R	26	21	10	79.0	48	24	11	91	49	46
Matt Lindstrom	R	36	35	0	33.7	23	11	3	37	18	17
Tommy Kahnle	R	26	57	0	63.0	69	37	8	58	34	32
Scott Carroll	R	31	25	16	99.3	57	37	14	115	63	59
Cody Winiarski	R	26	31	0	41.7	40	20	6	42	25	23
Javy Guerra	R	30	29	0	34.0	26	15	5	37	20	19
Michael Ynoa	R	24	31	0	42.7	40	23	6	44	26	24
Tyler Barnette	R	24	31	8	81.3	48	33	11	95	52	49
Will Lamb	L	25	46	0	55.0	47	32	7	56	33	31
Mark Blackmar	R	24	25	22	128.0	60	49	17	151	86	80
Daniel Webb	R	26	51	0	64.3	54	39	7	67	40	37
Maikel Cleto	R	27	40	0	55.0	64	31	10	52	34	32
Brandon Brennan	R	24	14	14	58.0	36	35	9	68	43	40
Matt Purke	L	25	18	15	62.7	40	28	12	75	46	43
Peter Tago	R	23	44	0	61.3	54	41	8	64	40	37
Jacob Turner	R	25	17	14	81.3	54	31	14	98	58	54
Tim Crabbe	R	28	31	11	91.0	66	40	16	105	63	59
Phillippe Aumont	R	27	34	7	68.3	66	59	10	69	48	45
Hector Noesi	R	29	25	17	109.7	80	40	22	126	77	72
Arcenio Leon	R	29	28	2	40.7	30	33	7	46	32	30
Tyler Danish	R	21	25	25	123.0	76	54	23	152	91	85
Myles Jaye	R	24	26	26	134.7	80	55	25	162	100	93
Nik Turley	L	26	19	19	93.3	74	56	22	107	75	70
Matt Lollis	R	25	51	0	66.3	53	41	14	75	51	48

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Chris Sale	195.7	793	30.4%	5.2%	.303	2.99	2.77	73	67
Jose Quintana	195.3	831	20.0%	5.7%	.304	3.73	3.29	91	80
Carlos Rodon	158.3	682	24.8%	9.2%	.296	3.81	3.88	93	94
David Robertson	60.3	244	34.0%	7.0%	.292	2.83	2.44	69	59
Erik Johnson	141.7	631	19.0%	9.7%	.299	4.70	4.50	115	109
John Danks	166.0	730	15.6%	6.8%	.295	4.88	4.61	119	111
Zach Putnam	55.0	236	25.8%	9.7%	.297	3.44	3.27	84	79
Nate Jones	54.3	230	27.4%	8.3%	.303	3.48	3.03	85	73
Zach Duke	54.7	236	26.3%	10.2%	.291	3.79	3.76	93	91
Dan Jennings	57.3	251	21.1%	8.8%	.304	3.92	3.38	96	82
Jake Petricka	70.7	308	17.9%	8.4%	.292	3.95	3.67	96	89
Matt Albers	33.0	142	16.9%	7.0%	.288	3.82	3.65	93	88
Jesse Crain	17.0	74	24.3%	9.5%	.298	3.71	3.75	91	91
Zach Phillips	41.3	182	23.1%	10.4%	.307	4.14	3.86	101	93
Onelki Garcia	43.3	198	22.2%	13.1%	.303	4.78	4.88	117	118
Josh Wall	43.7	194	20.1%	9.8%	.304	4.53	4.18	111	101
Chris Beck	105.3	475	12.4%	7.6%	.301	5.38	5.01	131	121
Terance Marin	79.0	352	13.6%	6.8%	.303	5.24	4.80	128	116
Matt Lindstrom	33.7	149	15.4%	7.4%	.306	4.54	3.88	111	94
Tommy Kahnle	63.0	284	24.3%	13.0%	.296	4.57	4.33	112	105
Scott Carroll	99.3	450	12.7%	8.2%	.302	5.35	5.06	131	122
Cody Winiarski	41.7	187	21.4%	10.7%	.302	4.97	4.57	121	111
Javy Guerra	34.0	154	16.9%	9.7%	.305	5.03	4.99	123	121
Michael Ynoa	42.7	195	20.5%	11.8%	.309	5.06	4.82	124	116
Tyler Barnette	81.3	372	12.9%	8.9%	.304	5.42	5.01	132	121
Will Lamb	55.0	253	18.6%	12.6%	.299	5.07	4.96	124	120
Mark Blackmar	128.0	584	10.3%	8.4%	.297	5.62	5.18	137	125
Daniel Webb	64.3	299	18.1%	13.0%	.306	5.18	4.71	127	114
Maikel Cleto	55.0	248	25.8%	12.5%	.300	5.24	4.94	128	120
Brandon Brennan	58.0	277	13.0%	12.6%	.306	6.21	5.90	152	143
Matt Purke	62.7	291	13.7%	9.6%	.304	6.18	5.85	151	141
Peter Tago	61.3	289	18.7%	14.2%	.308	5.43	5.19	133	126
Jacob Turner	81.3	373	14.5%	8.3%	.309	5.98	5.16	146	125
Tim Crabbe	91.0	418	15.8%	9.6%	.307	5.84	5.42	143	131
Phillippe Aumont	68.3	333	19.8%	17.7%	.304	5.93	5.80	145	140
Hector Noesi	109.7	495	16.2%	8.1%	.298	5.91	5.40	144	131
Arcenio Leon	40.7	201	14.9%	16.4%	.304	6.64	6.52	162	158
Tyler Danish	123.0	575	13.2%	9.4%	.311	6.22	5.79	152	140
Myles Jaye	134.7	621	12.9%	8.9%	.302	6.22	5.71	152	138
Nik Turley	93.3	443	16.7%	12.6%	.297	6.75	6.55	165	158
Matt Lollis	66.3	315	16.8%	13.0%	.301	6.51	6.20	159	150

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale	195.7	11.08	1.89	0.92	138	5.9	Ron Guidry
Jose Quintana	195.3	7.65	2.17	0.78	110	4.1	John Candelaria
Carlos Rodon	158.3	9.61	3.58	1.08	108	3.2	Mark Langston
David Robertson	60.3	12.39	2.54	0.90	145	1.3	Kiko Calero
Erik Johnson	141.7	7.62	3.87	1.14	88	1.2	Jim Dorsey
John Danks	166.0	6.18	2.71	1.30	84	1.0	Andrew Lorraine
Zach Putnam	55.0	9.98	3.76	0.82	120	0.7	Rich Garces
Nate Jones	54.3	10.44	3.15	0.83	118	0.7	Cliff Politte
Zach Duke	54.7	10.20	3.95	1.15	109	0.5	Damaso Marte
Dan Jennings	57.3	8.32	3.46	0.79	105	0.5	Mike Munoz
Jake Petricka	70.7	7.00	3.31	0.76	104	0.5	Eddie Watt
Matt Albers	33.0	6.55	2.73	0.82	108	0.3	Jim Umbricht
Jesse Crain	17.0	9.53	3.71	1.06	111	0.2	Jeff Nelson
Zach Phillips	41.3	9.15	4.14	0.87	99	0.2	Ricardo Jordan
Onelki Garcia	43.3	9.15	5.40	1.25	86	0.0	Tim Drummond
Josh Wall	43.7	8.03	3.91	1.03	91	0.0	Keith Shepherd
Chris Beck	105.3	5.04	3.08	1.28	76	0.0	Jason Karnuth
Terance Marin	79.0	5.47	2.73	1.25	79	0.0	Dicky Gonzalez
Matt Lindstrom	33.7	6.14	2.94	0.80	91	0.0	Fred Gladding
Tommy Kahnle	63.0	9.86	5.29	1.14	90	-0.1	Billy Sadler
Scott Carroll	99.3	5.17	3.35	1.27	77	-0.1	Randy Kramer
Cody Winiarski	41.7	8.63	4.32	1.29	83	-0.2	Jaime Cerda
Javy Guerra	34.0	6.88	3.97	1.32	82	-0.2	Paul Giel
Michael Ynoa	42.7	8.43	4.85	1.26	81	-0.3	Jaime Cerda
Tyler Barnette	81.3	5.31	3.65	1.22	76	-0.3	Rosman Garcia
Will Lamb	55.0	7.69	5.24	1.15	81	-0.4	Tom Thurberg
Mark Blackmar	128.0	4.22	3.45	1.20	73	-0.4	Bobby Howry
Daniel Webb	64.3	7.56	5.46	0.98	80	-0.5	Heathcliff Slocumb
Maikel Cleto	55.0	10.47	5.07	1.64	79	-0.5	Bo Donaldson
Brandon Brennan	58.0	5.59	5.43	1.40	66	-0.6	Tim Harrell
Matt Purke	62.7	5.74	4.02	1.72	67	-0.7	Joe Humphries
Peter Tago	61.3	7.93	6.02	1.17	76	-0.7	Edwardo Sierra
Jacob Turner	81.3	5.98	3.43	1.55	69	-0.7	Donne Wall
Tim Crabbe	91.0	6.53	3.96	1.58	71	-0.8	David Walters
Phillippe Aumont	68.3	8.70	7.77	1.32	69	-0.8	Jake Robbins
Hector Noesi	109.7	6.56	3.28	1.80	70	-0.9	Pat Rice
Arcenio Leon	40.7	6.63	7.30	1.55	62	-1.0	Dick Selma
Tyler Danish	123.0	5.56	3.95	1.68	66	-1.4	Larry McWilliams
Myles Jaye	134.7	5.35	3.67	1.67	66	-1.4	Jim Brower
Nik Turley	93.3	7.14	5.40	2.12	61	-1.7	Chris Waters
Matt Lollis	66.3	7.19	5.57	1.90	63	-1.8	John Thompson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.