FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 1/31/17

4:22

Paul Swydan:

What was your favorite new Netflix show of 2016?

Stranger Things (55.4% | 117 votes)

The Get Down (0.9% | 2 votes)

Luke Cage (6.1% | 13 votes)

The Crown (7.1% | 15 votes)

The OA (1.4% | 3 votes)

Other (6.6% | 14 votes)

I don’t have/watch Netflix (20.3% | 43 votes)

Don’t make me choose! (1.8% | 4 votes)

Total Votes: 211

4:26

Paul Swydan:

Which team currently pegged for 74-79 wins in our Expected Standings do you think is most likely to make the playoffs?

Orioles (22.1% | 56 votes)

Rockies (49.0% | 124 votes)

Dbacks (3.5% | 9 votes)

A’s (3.1% | 8 votes)

Royals (7.1% | 18 votes)

Twins (0.7% | 2 votes)

Braves (3.1% | 8 votes)

None of them (10.6% | 27 votes)

More than one of them (0.3% | 1 vote)

Total Votes: 253

4:28

Paul Swydan:

Which of the following center fielders has Mike Trout NOT already passed on the career WAR leaderboard?

Kirby Puckett (16.8% | 39 votes)

Bernie Williams (19.8% | 46 votes)

Hack Wilson (14.6% | 34 votes)

Johnny Damon (9.4% | 22 votes)

Torii Hunter (15.9% | 37 votes)

Mike Cameron (23.2% | 54 votes)

Total Votes: 232

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	+ison Russell: Hendricks in the 14th; Giolito in the 23rd; Mazara in the 26th (26 rounds, rd picked is the cost to keep). Pick 2.

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hendricks and Mazara

9:03	Michael: How come no wGDP stats before 2002? If we’re just looking at GIDP, GIDP opportunities, and league average, those stats are available.

9:03	Paul Swydan: That’s a question I don’t know the answer to, but leaving this here so we can talk about it.

9:04	John: You’re granted your own expansion team with the choice of joining any one division becoming the sixth team. Which division would you join to optimize your clubs future success?

9:05	Paul Swydan: AL Central

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree,

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe AL West

9:06	Samoa Jospeh: What are the odds of Greg Bird developing into a 35 HR/.850 OPS 1B over the next couple of seasons?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Decent.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: 5 to 10%

9:06	Doolitte’s Beard: Is the Oakland pitching staff underrated heading into the season? Full seasons of Cotton/Manaea/Triggs and potential bounce back of Sonny Gray.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure it is underrated. There are question marks for each one of those pitchers.

9:07	Paul Swydan: I think for the moment that it’s properly rated, but I will allow that they have a good bit of upside.

9:08	Murdoc: Theoretically, would the Rockies benefit in having another high altitude affiliate between Rookie and AAA?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I believe so, yes.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe

9:08	Zack: Will it take an injury or trade for Moncada to see significant playing time before the all star break?

9:09	Paul Swydan: No, not necessarily. But that is the strongest possibility.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: An injury may not even do it if he is struggling to make contact.

9:10	paul: keeper question-12 team keeper league ..Arenado in the 18th round (last year on keeping him) or Story in the 23rd (can keep him at that round for 3 years) ?also keeping Turner in the 24th (for 3 years)

9:10	Paul Swydan: Arenado, no brainer.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Oh, I’m sorry.

9:11	Paul Swydan: No, keep Trea Turner.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Though I’d try to keep them both, somehow.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you go with Story unless this year is do or die. Maybe try to move Arenado (or Story)

9:11	5 Run Homer: The Get Down just barely beats Stranger Things for me, but I’m a music nerd

9:11	Paul Swydan: I haven’t seen The Get Down yet, but I hear good things!

9:12	Eli: Do you get the feeling the Astros FO feels they deserve the picks they got, or do you think they’re kinda playing with house money on those? (not that they’re going to value them any less)

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: House money. I didn’t think they would get anything but money with the Cards picks just disappearing.

9:13	Paul Swydan: If I had to guess, I’d say the feeling is probably closer to the latter, but I honestly have no idea.

9:14	Ryan: What are your feelings on Lewis Brinson? Future star?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: All-Star future

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I like him a lot.

9:16	Paul Swydan: I agree.

9:16	00: Is there a player you have a tough time quitting on?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I’ve never really quit on Franklin Morales or Ubaldo Jimenez.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Stroman. he seems like he should dominate but doesn’t.

9:17	Yellow LedBettser: 1 keeper – HR, RBI, SB, TB, K, R – 10 teams, loss of round, Betts (2) or Corey Seager (8)? thanks

9:17	Paul Swydan: Seager

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Seager but it is close for me.

9:18	Derek: Trea Turner and Alex Bregman (6 years of control) Vs. Arenado and Machado (2 years of control). Thoughts?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Depends on how quickly you want to win, but absent that information, I’ll say ride or die with Arenado/Machado.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I would take the 2 years of control and try to find prospects in the meantime.

9:20	Nick: Do you watch Top 10 Right Now on MLB network? if so, why do you think Bill James’ opinion is so different from that of the other sabermetric panelists? He had Andrus as the like 5th best 2b.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I haven’t been watching them, no, but Bill James has always held different opinions than the crowd. It’s why we pay attention to him.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t watched the top 10. I don’t mind people who are wrong. I just want to know why they are different.

9:21	Where’s Eno?: Anyone got a Joc Pederson deep dive on tap in the coming months? I thought I saw some encouraging trends under the surface last summer.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Not that I know of, but maybe this will spur someone to it.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Someone will have a report once the players caps come out.

9:22	Slim Pickens: Kyle Schwarber sure seems polarizing when you see the wide disparity in pre season rankings. The Cub brain trust have been known to consider him the best hitter on the roster. What say you?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I think the reality is that if he’s a 550 PA player, he’s a top 3 round pick. If he’s a 400 PA player, he’s a mid-round player.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Good hitter, but position qualification will be huge as he will be DH only in most formats but I read Yahoo has him as a catcher

9:24	Where’s Eno?: Hi Paul, I’m looking at basing a league specific draft sheet off the Depth Charts. How often are those updated once the season starts?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Fairly regularly

9:24	Paul Swydan: They are updated all the time.

9:25	Tim: Byron Buxton > Mike Trout

9:25	Paul Swydan: Uh, I like your optimism?

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: You mistyped a <

9:25	Aunt Jessie: Big Time Timmy Jim(cecum) to the Padres? He can’t play for an east coast team – humid summers kill him. He’s from Seattle after all.

9:26	Paul Swydan: They might as well, though I doubt he lasts any longer than he did last year.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: No, they might as well try out some AAA arm.

9:26	Aunt Jessie: On the topic of netflix shows, the new Series of Unfortunate Events with NPH is pretty rad / feels like wes andersen / worth watching.

9:27	Paul Swydan: I was going to put that in, but it is technically a 2017 show.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: k

9:29	Hannah Hochevar: I’ve been wondering why a team with some cash and a weak system doesn’t just buy these decent relievers (like Howell or Blanton) to deal them at the deadline. They won’t net the Chapman/Miller haul but would bring something and you control the market.

9:30	Paul Swydan: It’s hard for teams to game the system that way, because you can’t just clog your roster like that.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Teams are looking for good relievers. Howell on a one-year deal is pretty worthless

9:31	Old Man Roto: Trade advice needed. 11 team mix 5×5 keeper. Matz $3 for Joc P $6 or Odubel Herrera $3. I’m loaded at pitching with max, kluber, carrasco, tailor, Duffy, t walker. Have mookie and ozuna and k broxton in OF. Loaded at middle and corner. Think I need speed.

9:32	Paul Swydan: I def like Pederson or Herrera better.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I grab Herrera but you may be able to get more.

9:33	Dago: Watching a Michael Pineda start from 2015, and attempting to convince myself that he guy posseses “ace” skills. Using the 20-80 scale, how much trust (do you guys have) left, if any, for him to put it together? Same scale for King Felix’s comeback? Thanks guys. Keep up good work.

9:33	Paul Swydan: I’ll be boring and say 50 on both.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: 30, he has 2 pitches and can only throw one for strikes. Hitters just sit and wait for the fastball. Robbie Ray has this same issue.

9:34

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Update from last weeks date: I felt a lot like Rich Hill. Started off promising. Completely fell apart at the end. Spent the next few days just hanging around. Then I somehow got another invite to big league camp. I’m just still waiting on that contract offer to make this analogy complete.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Glad to hear it!

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Beats me life

9:35	Billy Beane: I think your Netflix question should have the following answers: 1. Stranger Things 2. I have bad taste in television

9:35	Paul Swydan: Well, generally speaking, if you insult people like that, they don’t take your poll as seriously.

9:36	bl27: best Gray in 2017. Jon or Sonny

9:36	Paul Swydan: Jon!

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Jon if stadium is taken into account

9:37	diadem: Pappy Ross was the perfect fit for Lester. Ross is baseball smart and did well against the running game. Do Contreras or Montero have equivalent skills? Or is Lester in for some adjustin’ that could affect his numbers?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Lester will be fine. Think about that for a second. How many catchers do you think Jon Lester has pitched to in his life? Dozens? Hundreds?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll be fine.

9:39	Stevil: Could Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks actually be the Rangers best option for 1B?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I sincerely doubt that, but let’s get him to spring training again and find out!

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:40	Nick: Paul, as a Sox fan, what are your thoughts on Dombrowski? Prospects are far from sure things, and Chris Sale is amazing, but does his overall strategy make you concerned about long term sustainability? They have a great young core anyway, but as a third party observer, I’m not a big fan…

9:41	Paul Swydan: I don’t view it as a Dombrowski thing. Henry & Co. wanted someone to win now, and that’s what they’re doing.

9:42	Paul Swydan: They’re not worried about long-term sustainability, because if they were, Bogaerts and Betts and Bradley would already have contract extensions.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he does a good job of winning at the MLB level. Prospects are just currency to help the MLB team win.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Seems like I lost Paul

9:45	John: Do you guys think Javier Baez becomes a star? His contact rate has gotten better each year and last playoffs he looked incredible at times.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Oh sorry

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: And horrible at times

9:46	Jose: 16-team 40+ man rosters. Points scoring that roughly mirrors linear weights (i.e., de-prioritizes steals relative to standard roto). Need a SS and MI. Have Correa and Swanson, considering moving Swanson for Amed Rosario and Vladdy Jr. Not competing this year. Would you make that trade?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I would want other major league players for Swanson.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so but its close.

9:47	paul: would you keep britton in the 7th round or mcullers in the 15th?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Britton, I guess, but I don’t like either.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: That is about their ADP. Keep Britton I guess

9:48	Brad: 12 team NL only – if one team keeps 3 closers, are you more or less likely to try to buy one at auction?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: More. One closer puts an owner in the middle of the pack.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Wouldn’t factor into my decision-making, as there is usually a team that tries to horde closers, and that team will usually end up with enough holes that they won’t keep their closers all season.

9:49	Mark: Dynasty league – trade benintendi and pedroia for trea turner?

9:49	Paul Swydan: No, I’d stick with Benintendi and Pedroia.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: No, unless is really shallow and a replacement can be found for Pedroia

9:50	Tom: Rangers and now Astros moving minor league teams out of California to less hitter friendly environments. Will this become a trend to get a more actuate reading on players?

9:50	Paul Swydan: It probably can’t become a super trend because there’s only so many minor league destinations to go around.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is so their pitchers can develop correctly.

9:51	Tony: I’m considering taking Harper at 6 in my roto league, especially if Altuve and Arenado are gone. Would I be crazy to take him over Machado/Bryant/Goldy?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I would have a hard time justifying taking Harper over Machado or Bryant.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, Harper is too risky

9:52	Guest: How do you like the DRA stat and how much would you use it towards fantasy analysis?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I like it just fine, but I don’t know that I would incorporate it much. I generally try to keep things simple with my valuations.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not a fan as of now. I have my own methods I trust. I do know that FIP was a better ERA estimator for 2015 to 2016 than DRA

9:53	ben: Best games you saw in person?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I was at the 2007 Wild Card game between the Rockies and Padres. Hard to top that one.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: 2014 Wild Card Royals vs A’s

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Beat you

9:54	Paul Swydan: Non-baseball, I was also at the Celtics huge comeback in Game 3 of the 2002 Eastern Conference Finals over the Nets.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Recent edition – I was at Isaiah Thomas’ 52-point game a couple of weeks ago.

9:55	Paul Swydan: The Rockies comeback was better.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Down 2 in extras vs Trevor Hoffman

9:55	Greg: What are your thoughts on Mazara? Does he take a step forward this season or next into stardom?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Lot of Mazara questions tonight!

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Didn’t we answer this already?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I think he’ll improve, but without a significant jump in his OBP, stardom is not in his future.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Did we?

9:56	BoJack Horseman: I’m still the best show on Netflix. I’m hilarious and also a deep exploration of depression and self-destructiveness.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Okey dokey.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Netflix smackdown … we have it all in the After Dark Chat

9:58	Dr Evil: How close will Machado and Harper get to…. ONE BILLION DOLLARS?

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think they will but they will be north of a half billion.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Not as close as you’d probably like, Dr.

9:59	Guest: Stranger Things was great, Luke Cage was a real pleasant surprise