FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/3/17

by Paul Swydan

January 3, 2017

8:59	Paul Swydan: How many players will be elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA this year? Zero (0% \| 0 votes) One (3.8% \| 2 votes) Two (17.3% \| 9 votes) Three (48.0% \| 25 votes) Four (11.5% \| 6 votes) Five (13.4% \| 7 votes) More than five (5.7% \| 3 votes) Total Votes: 52

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Paul Swydan: Back to work.

9:01	Paul Swydan: Which RTJ album is your favorite? RTJ1 (0% \| 0 votes) RTJ2 (4.8% \| 2 votes) RTJ3 (2.4% \| 1 vote) Don’t make me choose. (0% \| 0 votes) I don’t understand this poll. (63.4% \| 26 votes) I don’t care for this poll. (29.2% \| 12 votes) Total Votes: 41

9:01	andres: David Peralta helps me? Muricio Dubon too?

9:02	Paul Swydan: This was tonight’s first question, which I always post. I’ll be honest though, I don’t get the context of it. I like both of those players…

9:02	CarrotJuice: Give me your hottest take on the Rubby De La Rosa minor league deal with Arizona!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Rubby De La Rosa still has enough talent to warrant a flyer. Maybe someday he’ll put it all together like Yusemeiro Petit or Jorge De La Rosa did.

9:03	v2micca: One gaping hole in the Braves rebuild is anything resembling a viable catcher within the next 4 years. Do they have the ammo to swing a trade for a Chance Sisco or Reese McGuire level catching prospect without hurting their rebuild?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Giving up prospects from their cache on an unproven catching prospect probably isn’t the best strategy. I’d probably try to find a veteran who frames pitches well or can otherwise offer a positive contribution. Not every player on the team needs to be a prospect.

9:04	YKnotDisco?!: Who was better at baseball: Bo or Deion?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Bo.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Bo was better at football too, and I say that as the guy in this conversation who usually defends Deion.

9:05	JDubb: Any idea on potential innings and stat line for Mike Montgomery if he makes rotation?

9:05	Paul Swydan: No idea about his innings limit. I wouldn’t expect greatness from him in the rotation. He was good in the bullpen, I’d stick with that. But who knows.

9:05	Brad: Do you see rox signing a 1b, putting Desmond in of.

9:06	Paul Swydan: It’s not about signing a first baseman, it’s more about trading an outfielder. They don’t have an outfield spot for him at the moment, which is what made the signing so odd absent of future moves.

9:06	Brad: do you see rox signing 1b, putting Desmond in of, and sending Dahl to minors? See Brad Johnson take on rotographs

9:07	Paul Swydan: With all due respect to Brad, Dahl was an above-average hitter in the majors over nearly half a season of PA. I can’t see what the rationale for sending him back to the minors could possibly be.

9:07	Eli: Will the threat of an Otani posting next offseason affect the July 2 market this year?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I doubt it.

9:08	Filthy Wil: Rate ’em: Urias, Story, Trea Turner, Gary Sanchez, Swanson, Al Reyes, Fulmer

9:08	Paul Swydan: Turner, Urias, Sanchez, Reyes/Fulmer, Story

9:09	Jay: Does Ken Giles become an elite closer this year?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Is he not already an elite closer? If you don’t think of him as one now, then no, unless his superficially high ERA turned you off.

9:10	Paul Swydan: His ERA should be lower in ’17, is what I mean.

9:10	Jay: Will Profar find a permanent position or is he destined fo a utility role. Does he ever realize the predicted stardom of his past number one Prospect ranking?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I don’t think either is true. I doubt he finds a permanent home THIS year, but I also don’t think he’s DESTINED for a utility role.

9:11	The Cincinnati Kid: My league is switching to Saves + Holds – Blown Saves as one category. Is this something I can wait late on in the draft and just be active on the wire?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Yes, with a caveat. Some set-up guys who rack up a lot of holds also rack up a lot of blown saves. Nate Jones and David Phelps and to a lesser extent Tyler Thornburg are good 2016 examples of this.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Also, no one really ever racks up more than 40 holds, so it’s not like you will be zooming past by getting set-up guys. More just keeping things even. Which is fine, of course.

9:13	The Cincinnati Kid: I’m trying to determine my last few Keeper spots. Pick 2: Blackmon (Rd 3), Scherzer (Rd 4), Gallo (Rd 25), or G. Bird (Rd 28.)

9:14	Paul Swydan: Scherzer and … Gallo.

9:14	Friarfaithful117: Who are the top three draft picks in the 2017 draft?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Wow, you want Eric Longenhagen’s chat for that.

9:14	Friarfaithful117: Should the Padres trade or extend Wil Myers?

9:14	Paul Swydan: If those are my only choices, trade.

9:15	Paul Swydan: The next time the Padres are good, Wil Myers probably won’t be anymore.

9:15	bosoxforlife: After 30 years of Double-A baseball within a couple miles of my home, last year was traumatic for this prospect hound. Please tell me that the Hartford Yard Goats will not fold before ever playing a game.

9:15	Paul Swydan: The Hartford Yard Goats will not fold before ever playing a game.

9:15

5 Run Homer: I was talking with some friends about rushing prospects vs. keeping them in the minors, and I put forward the notion that overdevelopment is bad, guys like Joey Gallo have been ruined by bouncing up and down and never getting their shot. Thoughts? Personal preference in regards to how aggressively you should promote prospects?

9:16

Paul Swydan: I agree with your general premise that you shouldn’t promote a prospect until you’re ready to play him every day. Another example would be what the Red Sox did with Yoan Moncada. They wanted to see if they could find a spark, but then cut bait after a couple of games. In the long run, that does a disservice to the player and team IMO.

9:17	Zock jr: Was last year quite this dead around this time? Cuz the last week+ has felt BARREN.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Yeah, my recollection is that it’s usually like this at this time. Things seem to perk back up after the HoF announcement, but the HoF announcement is late this year, so maybe it’ll pick back up before then.

9:18	Mariners101: The Mariners are going to be competitive this coming year, but they probably aren’t going to win the AL West. Would Hammel and another reliever make them contenders to win the division?

9:18	Paul Swydan: They’re contenders to win right now, but yes, those players/player types would certainly help.

9:19	The Cincinnati Kid: If you could Keep UP TO 2 of Carlos Santana, David Dahl, Jake Lamb, Ryon Healy, or Hernan Perez in Rd 10, who would you Keep? Settings: Runs, HRs, RBIs, Net SBs, OBP & SLG?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Santana and Dahl, I’d consider keeping. Not the other two, not in round 10.

9:19	Mike Foltynewics: Should Curt Flood be in the HOF?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Yes, but not because of his statistics.

9:20	Mike Foltynewics: Steve Phillips has said there’s a good chance Bautista will have to sign after the June draft.

9:20	Paul Swydan: If you’re coming here, you already know to question statements like this. Trust that instinct.

9:21	VanExelent: Could Bellinger be ready fast enough to push Adrian Gonzalez out the door before his contract expires?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Absolutely, and that will be a fascinating situation to follow. Gonzalez certainly didn’t have his best season in 2016.

9:22	Sonny Gray: Should I not work out with David Price this offseason?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Who players work out with is one of the last possible things I would care about.

9:22	Connor: With the Cubs and Red Sox leading the way, are we entering an era of MLB super-teams? Is the gap between the top teams and bottom teams now wider than ever before?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for showing up later, I was coaching my daughter basketball team

9:22	Paul Swydan: Nope. The Cubs literally had to go to extra innings in Game 7 to win the World Series.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Hi Jeff!

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Hey Paul

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Super teams don’t really exist IMO

9:24	Paul Swydan: You guys, Jeff put up a zip line in his yard for his kids. It looks awesome.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: It is pretty cool

9:24	Don: Would you trade Quintana for a package headlined by Judge and Rutherford?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman:

9:25	Paul Swydan: It depends on whether we’re talking about Blake Rutherford or Rutherford B. Hayes.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: No. I am not a fan of Judge at all and Rutherford is pretty raw

9:26	Paul Swydan: Statistically, we don’t know much about Blake Rutherford yet, since he only has 130 PA under his belt. So I am afraid I’m not qualified to answer that part. I’d lean no for now.

9:26	Alfonso: Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline named some prospects in his personal top 50. Top 3 in order were Moncada, Torres, Benintendi. I’m a huge Torres fan…… but #2 in baseball?

9:26	Paul Swydan: He was top 10 last year, was he not?

9:26	Paul Swydan: It’s best to always think of top prospects in buckets.

9:27	Paul Swydan: 1-5, 6-10, 11-25, 26-50, etc.

9:27	Paul Swydan: There generally isn’t a ton of separation between individual prospects on these lists. It is only our irrational need to rank things that makes these lists look the way they do.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the top 2 to 10 could be pretty interchangeable. Look to see how they or graded on the 20 to 80 scale

9:28	Khris Davis: Am I really one of the best power hitters in the league, or were my 42 homeruns a fluke?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Can neither be true? I pick neither.

9:29	Paul Swydan: I guess if you’re FORCING me to pick, I’ll say one of the better power hitters.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: You are a good long flyball ball hitter, not much power otherwise

9:29	Man of Steel: Who is your best guess to be this year’s version of Sam Dyson? I was able to get him late in NFBC drafts last year due to Tolleson being the closer. I don’t see anyone fitting that mold yet this year hoping for some insight, thanks!

9:30	Paul Swydan: NATE JONES

9:30	Paul Swydan: Say it in the “MIKE JONES!!!” voice.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Blake Trenien (sp) of the Nats

9:30	Paul Swydan: I assume that at some point David Robertson will be traded.

9:31

Jim Lonborg: I saw your piece on the most popular stories, Paul–it’s pretty interesting to see Dave’s transaction grades a year later. Any thoughts on those? It seems like Dave undervalued Murphy and overvalued Heyward and maybe Grienke, but mostly he was rather prescient. That Giles trade looks awfully good for the Phillies, does’t it?

9:32	Paul Swydan: The Giles trade looks great for the Phillies, and it did at the time. The assumption had to have been that the Astros really liked Giles, which is why it was so funny to see them turn around and dick with his role for the first half of the season.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Dave did pretty well knowing the information at the time. The only one I would ping him on is Murphy who people have been undervaluing for years

9:33	Paul Swydan: In general, pieces like that are so widely read because Dave is so good at putting them together. Few people put together Dave’s package of knowing the stats and working contacts for additional info.

9:33	Edwin Encarnacion: How did my market collapse so drastically? I understand that the QO situation and my 1B/DH role sapped my value, but man, I’ve been an elite power hitter over the last five years and I just turned 33!

9:34	Paul Swydan: Because you overplayed your hand? That’d be my guess. The owners are doing everything possible to drive down the price of contracts, and reaching free agency may no longer be the best way to maximize your earning potential.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: People saw how Teix aged in NY

9:34	Jim Lonborg: Is Dombrowski done? Still seems light at 1st/3rd/DH. I feel like we’ll be seeing a lot of the Brock Star.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Yeah, outside of a reliever or two, he’s done. We’ll definitely see plenty of Brock Holt. He’s Farrell’s binky.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see them sign one of the DH/1B to a one-year deal

9:36	Paul Swydan: Mitch Moreland is so upset with you right now.

9:36	Ryan : Is FG going to do an off season trade value update? Seems like some adjustments are in order, given that Eaton didn’t even make this year’s list, on the grounds that teams don’t pay for defense.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Not that I know of

9:37

Paul Swydan: I doubt it. That series is very time consuming for Dave, and I wouldn’t expect him to do it more than once a year. In addition, it’s a snapshot of where we are at THAT particular time. It’s not meant to be everlasting. You could do it once a month and it’d be different every month. What’s the point of that, other than empty clicks?

9:37	Tommy Lasordid: Who would be better at football? Puig or Trout?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I would assume Trout, just on the basis that I doubt Puig has ever played football. Unless you mean soccer, which in that case, still Trout.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Trout. He would make a sweet TE

9:38	Roadhog: A’s sign Rajai for 1/6. Contract is worth the flier alone, no?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Absolutely.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Good deal and could be moved at the deadline

9:39	bosoxforlife: Mauricio Dubon was seen as org. fodder but has hit everywhere and added pop. Can he beat out Arcia for the Brewers SS position?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I doubt he beats out Arcia, but he could have a future at a different position.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I am just not familiar with him.

9:40	Tommy Lasordid: Was the Rose Bowl wicked or what?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Didn’t watch it

9:41	Paul Swydan: Oh yes, the team with a history of skirting the rules and taking advantage of free labor beat that other team with a history of skirting the rules and taking advantage of free labor. Can’t top that!

9:41	Tomas: Better HOF chances: Pedroia, Kinsler, or Mauer?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Pedroia and Mauer have much better chances on the strength of their MVPs. Kinsler will have to be excellent for far longer, which … I dunno, maybe.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Pedroia. He may be able to get the counting stats. Mauer falls into the Murphy/Mattingley/Nomar class of short great peak seasons which don’t get people into the HOF

9:44	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think the only thing that could save Mauer is that he was a catcher and there aren’t as many of them in the Hall.

9:44	bosoxforlife: I would rather see Holt at third and Sandoval in Santo Domingo.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Hanley Ramirez bounced back. Why can’t Sandoval? Especially since he was also playing on a bum shoulder? Don’t be so negative. Wait until May for that, ha.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Then how is Holt going to play five different positions a week?

9:45	Dr Evil: Is Posada going to get dropped from the HOF ballot? Seems ridiculous – not sure he should get in, but he should get stronger consideration.

9:46	Paul Swydan: He’s on the borderline. And no, I think he’s getting the exact sort of consideration he deserves. He’s certainly not more deserving than Kenny Lofton or Kevin Brown or Jim Edmonds.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Too much post-season push. Not really a HOF IMO

9:46	Melvin Upton Jr.: Do I still have a spot on the Jays next year or should I be ready to pack my bags?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Don’t pack those bags, Melvin.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: You hit 20 home runs, just like everyone else in the league

9:47	Steve: Bonds & Clemens getting in this year?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Next year.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Not yet, getting closer though

9:47

Rick: Come down off your high horse Paul: Baseball, like all professional sports to a degree, is founded on an exemption from antitrust liability precisely so that teams can hold down salaries–they don’t get “free labor” like college teams, but they get a much sweeter deal than if the professional sports market were truly free.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I am pretty sure Paul would agree with your statement.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Free labor is but part of the equation. Don’t ever ask me to care about what Penn State does. Ever. In anything. What they did to cover up for Jerry Sandusky is unconscionable and forever unforgivable. And USC isn’t exactly the All-Saints Club.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Also, yes, I don’t like the anti-trust exemption.

9:49	Devin Mesoraco: how many games will I play before I break again?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Hopefully thousands. But probably less than 300.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Odds are a full season. I just did a study for BHQ and found there is no such thing as being injury prone with hitters

9:51

Jack C: Are there any rules in the MLB I’m regards to signing a player without a “base” salary? I was talking to a friend about a possible Kris Bryant extension, and he suggested a 7/150 deal, with 2 options at the qualifying offer+ 10%, with a 20% total buyout. Is that type of offer even allowed by the MLBPA?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I don’t know if it is or isn’t, but generally the MLBPA frowns upon creative contracts because while it might work out for an all-world player like Bryant, it could set a negative precedent for less talented players.

9:53	Terry: Most overrated holiday: New Year’s Eve, Valentine’s Day, or Halloween?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Of the three, New Years eve. The other two involve getting candy.

9:55

Paul Swydan: I say Valentine’s Day. At least the spirit of New Year’s Eve and Halloween is that you socialize with your friends and neighbors. The spirit of Valentine’s Day is that you spend way more money on normal products like food and flowers to show your significant other that you love them. It’s an objectively ridiculous premise.

9:55	Ray : Will Trevor Story be hindered by the thumb injury or will he be good to go in 2017?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Jeff knows this better than me. I would think he’d be past the normal adjustment period players experience after thumb injuries by the end of spring training, but I don’t know the stats on the carry over from one season to the next, I just know that it is a big deal IN-season.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: He should be good by now if he correctly did all the rehab .

9:57	Jim Lonborg: Ugh, so glad Trout isn’t a football player. Wouldn’t you rather see him play 3000 games rather than 60 or 70?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I would, though I certainly haven’t watched the majority of Mike Trout’s games. I guess I’m wasting my life.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t watched enough of him either.

9:58	Biff Tannen: Is TEX done adding starting pitching? They still need desperately need a #3 as neither Perez nor Cashner are very good.

9:58	Paul Swydan: You’d certainly hope they are looking for rotation upgrades, but I can’t say for certain whether they are.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably, but I figured they would have moved Profar

9:59	Tony: If you had 7 keepers in a standard 5×5 but with obp over avg and your bats were Donaldson, springer, c.seager, Villar. Would you finish with price, arrieta and kluber or go with kinsler or belt? 14 teams

9:59	Paul Swydan: I don’t see how you can possible be keeping Villar over Kinsler or Belt.