FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/2/16

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Let’s do this.

Paul Swydan: Jeff will be along momentarily.

Cwsoxfan: Ethier and Hernandez for Avi and Danks. (LAD love old LHP?)

Paul Swydan: You’re dreaming. Garcia and Danks are both terrible.

Sean: How much playing time will Refsnyder get in the majors this year? Is defensive issues the main problem with an early call up?

Paul Swydan: We have him at 105 PA right now. I think a lot will depend on how well Castro takes to second/the AL. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=9#2B

The Dude of NY: So Ken Griffey is obviously a HOF. However, both Mussina and Schilling have higher career WARs. Now, IF Ken Griffey Jr. spent his whole career in Seattle, he would not have gotten all of those easy Reds HR during his drastic decline due to stadium conditions. So, assuming it costs him say, 50 HR, does he get less support for the HOF? Does he not break a record for highest % of votes, b/c his HR total is less shiny?

Paul Swydan: No, Griffey was already a hall of famer when he left for Cincy.

zach: In your opinion is buxton a bust? What percentage would you give him living up to his superstar potential?

Paul Swydan: No, not yet. He’s had 138 PA at the major league level. Let’s give him a full year in the majors, injury free, before we judge.

Jeff Zimmerman: Compare him to Trout’s first season.

Cam: What is holding back the Rockies most, from being a consistently competitive team – location, or front office? Should they seriously be considering relocation?

Paul Swydan: The Rockies should absolutely not be considering relocation. Denver is a fabulous city and they have a great fanbase there. I get that altitude is a concern, but that’s a ridiculous solution. Sorry.

Jeff Zimmerman: They need a better front office first before anything.

Tim: Hello Paul, If you applied WAR to your and your competition’s Fantasy teams is it reasonable to assume that you could identify areas of weakness and who has the strongest team?…or is Defense to much a factor in WAR?…..or does WAR not translate well to the Fantasy game?

Paul Swydan: Defense is an issue, but unless you’re in a linear weights league, I’d guess that WAR doesn’t really translate well.

Jeff Zimmerman: Offense barely translates, defense not at all

Ol Sea Cap’n : Should I trade khris davis for Lance mccullers? Same price. 14 team, 24 player league. 7×7.

Paul Swydan: Um, I know I would.

Jeff Zimmerman: FYI, McCullers will continue to be a huge injury risk because of previous injuries and the large number of fastballs he throws.

Paul Swydan: Steamer has McCullers at 2.7 WAR, Davis at 1.2.

anon: What would be the most surprising WS matchup? I say Orioles vs Dbacks (or Marlins)

Paul Swydan: Phillies vs. A’s

Jeff Zimmerman: Twins vs Phillies

anon: Superbowl pick?

Paul Swydan: Panthers by 800

Jeff Zimmerman: Beer

Paul Swydan: Is the Refrigerator playing in the Bud Bowl this year, Jeff?

Jeff Zimmerman: Good times. I really don’t care or have an educated opinion on it.

Paul Swydan: God only knows why they stopped doing the Bud Bowl. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47SMBrviAO8

John Farrell: Was there anything you saw from Rusney Castillo last year to suggest that he could turn into an above average major league hitter or he is looking more likely to be a bust?

Paul Swydan: He’s still a very good fielder. He basically has the same deal as Jackie Bradley. If the offense is average, he’s an above average player.

Jeff Zimmerman: He could be an average-ish, but the situation in Boston is not good for him. Maybe Boston is waiting for his stock to rise to get more in trade.

Paul Swydan: Eh, now that Ramirez is a full-time first baseman, Castillo should have a clear path to regular playing time. We’ll see.

Sara : What is the projected win total for Dodgers now with Howie and Maeta

Paul Swydan: We still don’t have Maeda in there (believe me, we’re more frustrated about this than you are) but right now we have the Dodgers at 91 wins.

Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t looked, but probably around 90 wins. Loss of Greinke will hurt projections. Hopefully soon I will have a cool graphic with actual Win% knowing preseason win projection.

Reggie Smith: For a QOed free agent who is still unsigned when spring training starts, and is choosing between a very cheap deal or waiting, is his short-term financial interest at odds with his long-term career interest?

Paul Swydan: No, I think at that point the lessons of Drew and Morales are that you need to just sign and get in the groove. It took both of them forever after waiting to get back to it. Drew never really did. Though John Farrell never seemed to notice.

Jeff Zimmerman: The player messed up earlier not excepting the qualifying offer. Also, I think they are d u m b …. dumb.

Mike: Is Juan Uribe a substantive upgrade over Urshela? Is Jose Ramirez Indians best option at third?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think all three aren’t the answer.

Paul Swydan: I don’t know if Uribe is a substantive upgrade over Urshela, but he provides good stability. Furthermore, he’s generally a guy who works well in both a starting and bench capacity, so if/when Urshela steps up, Uribe can take a step back.

Paul Swydan: Definitely don’t think Ramirez is the answer.

The Dude of NY: The Reds announced that Brandon Phillips is there everyday 2B. Why? If Jose Peraza is their 2B of the future, shouldn’t they be playing him every day? Maybe it would even incentivize Phillips to waive his NTC w/out needing an extension.

Jeff Zimmerman: The Reds signed him to the contract, I am not sure what they are complaining about. Maybe it will like $5 to waive a NTC.

Paul Swydan: I think the reason why is that they don’t really have much choice. Unless they deal Phillips, which seems less likely every day, they have to play him. The real question is why didn’t they trade him in November. Or last July.

dprat: 12 team OBP dynasty, 27 player roster and need to cut four of following from a pretty young team that will probably not be competitive this year but big hopes for 2017: Teixeira (old – not much trade interest), Bird (shoulder – oy!), Kike Hernandez (buried), Jake Lamb (not good), Souza (also buried or platooned), Jarret Parker(is he anything?) , and Oswaldo Arcia (forgotten).

Paul Swydan: The good news is you can’t go wrong here. I’d cut Tex, Bird, Parker and ………………… Lamb or Arcia.

Fred: Keep Kang (18th round) or Odor (9th round)?

Jeff Zimmerman: Kike, Jarret, Oswaldo and …Teix

Paul Swydan: I like both, but Kang.

Jeff Zimmerman: Odor, I like the upside

anon: How big will the difference be between this years rookie class vs last years?

Paul Swydan: Probably big. Last year’s rookie class was pretty special. I wouldn’t expect that kind of impact again.

Jeff Zimmerman: Less, comparing any rookie class to the ’15 one will 99% of the time have the ’15 one as the better one. It may be one for the ages.

Arnie: Gentlemen I need to keep 2 of these 4 guys. AL 5×5 $280 cap 14hitters 10 pitchers. Sale $36, Weiters $12, T Walker $5 or Eduardo Rodriguez $10. I am already keeping Bogaerts $5,JD Martinez $10, Betts $10, C Davis $19 and Wade Davis $4. Could really use your help.

Jeff Zimmerman: Walker and …. Sale. Price for sale not great, but he will likely go for about the same price later with inflation.

Paul Swydan: I think this is a clear Sale and Walker situation. Gotta keep Sale, and then in Walker vs Rodriguez I want the cheaper guy.

gern cranium: Keep forever with no salaries. Would appreciate if you rank these 5. Jose Reyes, W. Myers, Ozuna, Cashner, Iwakuma

Jeff Zimmerman: Myers, Ozuna, Reyes, Cashner, Iwakuma

Paul Swydan: Oof. Ozuna, Myers, Iwakuma, Cashner …. Reyes.

Paul Swydan: Haha, you said Cashman.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, yes I did

Jordan : Everyone seems to be drinking Red Sox cool aid, I don’t see that much of an improvement beyond the bullpen, I do think that they COULD be the best team in the AL or just another mid pack team, I see the Jays as the most complete team in the east even if they have a mediocre starting staff, am I overly optimistic?

Paul Swydan: Well, first of all, now is the time to be overly optimistic. Hope and faith, and all that. Second, the Red Sox improvement mostly comes from the hypothetical rebounds for Hanley and Sandoval. If you believe they will still be bums, then Toronto and New York should be better. If you think Hanley and Sandoval turn it around, then we have ourselves a nice little division race.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, the Jays may be able to blast their way into the playoffs, but that team is getting old and I am worried about them getting the injury bug.

Guest: Which AL team is most likely to win 100 games this season? (This does not necessarily mean win the pennant/WS)

Paul Swydan: Houston, probably. They come to mind first.

Jeff Zimmerman: I was going to go with the Rangers. I think it would be out of the west if it happens.

Ryan: If you guys want a good laugh just look at rubby de la rosa righty lefty splits

Paul Swydan: Aww, poor Rubby.

Jordan : Is It just me or does there seem to be way to much fan fare given to the idea that teams are tanking? Seems as that teams are rebuilding at the same rate or even lower rate that they normally do. I also feel as that buster onley is perpetuating this in a very negative way.

Paul Swydan: I think we should all just be thankful that the tanking story has prevented us from breaking into early renditions of “best shape of his life” stories.

Jeff Zimmerman: It is a non-story to me. Teams need to rebuild at times and low revenue teams will have to suck for a few seasons to do it. It has been this way for a couple of decades.

Andy: Looking to do some research on aging curves. How would I go about getting a whole bunch of players’ stats for a couple of years? The “multiple years” feature on FG only lets me see the the totals for that time period, not a breakdown by season.

Paul Swydan: One for Jeff.

The Dude of NY: Why does Fangraphs make Jeff Sullivan write like 3 times as many articles as everyone else?

Jeff Zimmerman: You will need to download the .csv for a few seasons and then match up the playerid (uncluded on sheet) for the players with something like vlookup

Jeff Zimmerman: He is a cyborg.

Paul Swydan: While Jeff is answering – Sullivan writes more because he doesn’t really do anything else. Dave and Carson edit FG, Carson has the pod, Eno has RG, I have THT, Dan has prospects all by himself. We need Jeff to be the guy who writes a lot. August too.

Paul Swydan: Also, that’s not a knock on Sullivan. Very few of us could do what he does. It’s very hard to pick 10 engaging topics a week, and then also write eloquently about them. Jeff is amazing.

Ed in Iowa: I feel like there is probably a non-linearity of $ per WAR for generational talents like Harper and Trout. I don’t think Harper will get a contract that will actually pay him $9M (plus inflation) per projected WAR because he will simply have too high of a projected WAR. What if you predict him to produce 95 WAR over the length of a 13 year contract, with inflation that’d mean he was “worth” around a billion dollars. I don’t see a team being able to stomach that risk for a guy that could get drilled in the head (or choked by a teammate) at any moment. Similarly (though not exactly the same), I don’t think Trout is the most valuable trade commodity because to make a reasonable offer you’d have to give up something like $120M in value to make up his surplus value and that’d win you the privilege of paying him $30M per year for the next 4-ish years. Would a team really risk $120M in player assets and 15-20% of its payroll in one player?! I’m thinkin probably not. Thoughts?

Jeff Zimmerman: Whoa

Paul Swydan: First thought – this might be the longest question ever.

Paul Swydan: I think you’re definitely correct on the Trout part. Which is why the Angels are stuck with him. Which I’m sure they’re just fine with. As for the Harper deal…I don’t know, we’ll see. I doubt he signs for 13 years, first of all. But with him seemingly destined to test free agency, it’s going to be fascinating to see what he gets.

Paul Swydan: Certainly what you’re saying makes sense.

Jeff Zimmerman: First, everyone at the time thought Arod contract was insane and the 1st one was OK. And Stanton just got $400M, I think a $600M to $800M contract is reasonable.

The Dude of NY: Re Phillips: But why do they *need* to play him? Couldn’t they just relegate him to a backup roll?

Paul Swydan: No, the clubhouse would be a disaster if they did that. If the player coming up is a bonafide star, you deal with it. Peraza doesn’t have that profile.

Jeff Zimmerman: He would be a mess then, might as well release him.

Who_Is_Zorbist: Why are teams not moving fences in more? Home runs are fun and home run saving catches are fun. The Marlins are doing it. The Mets did it. Imagine Kiermaier playing on the Orioles’ shallow 7 foot fence 81 times a year. Instead, he’s at a homer killing 9 foot fence. Want to fix offense, and make it more entertaining? More HR and more miracle catches.

Paul Swydan: You say move in, but I think you make a better argument for move down. If your fence isn’t 5-7 feet high, then it should be 20-30 feet high. That 9 foot mark is just awkward and aggravating. As for why more teams don’t move the fences in, I suspect it’s because most teams don’t have their ballparks designed in such a way that would allow them to put more seats in. IE, the places where they move it in are occupied by the bullpens, etc.

Jeff Zimmerman: IMO, there should be a rule that all fences should be 8 to 9 feet hight. Personally, I like a good double or triple more and would like to see some more.

Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

Derek: Jotcast is blocked at my work. Do you know of any workarounds?

Paul Swydan: Get a better job?

Paul Swydan: Kidding, kidding. Beyond waiting the hour for the transcript to go up, no, sorry.

Jeff Zimmerman: Nope

Paul: In a 5×5 H2H, the commish is proposing a switch to K/9 instead of K (w/ S, ERA, WHIP, QS). If we make that switch, is there any reason NOT to punt QS and run out a staff of relievers? We have three roster slots for RP/P, so I think I could hit the 10 IP minimum each week with just a few additional SP-eligible relievers.

Paul Swydan: I mean, I don’t like punting any one category, but this would definitely be a viable strategy, especially in head to head format. (Standard reminder that I loathe the head to head format)

Jeff Zimmerman: I may go with the route, but if I was him, I would push up the IP min.

Paul Swydan: Yeah, that’s a good solution.

Fred: When are we gonna get more Farnsworth? Can you lock him in a room and make him write 7 times a week?

Paul Swydan: I think the plan right now is 3 lists per week. There’s a list scheduled for tomorrow.

Bill Brasky: What is a realistic return for Khris Davis for Milwaukee?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think you will see stuff in bunches as he gets information. He is not Kylie and his connections.

Paul Swydan: Not much. B prospect.

Jeff Zimmerman: 3-4 starter or a 50 grade prospect. I should look for comps in my THT article

Reggie Smith: I wonder if lowering fences would lead to more outfield injuries? It always makes me nervous when someone–usually Betts–tumbles into the bullpen at Fenway.

Jeff Zimmerman: I am into the jump, but not go over height.

Paul Swydan: Well, Fenway’s right field wall is the lowest, I believe. I’m not saying go that low. But to be honest, that situation almost never happens, and it does so with Betts because he’s such an amazing athlete.

Fred: Stroman or R. Iglesias next year, next 3 years?

Paul Swydan: Stroman

Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, computer went a little weird on me.

Reggie Smith: The funny thing about the Red Sox bandwagon is if you read the papers or listen to the radio in Boston you don’t get much sense of optimism. It seems like a lot of the local writers are still saying if Dombrowski doesn’t trade Hanley by the end of March he’s already a failure.

Jeff Zimmerman: People need some real baseball to cover. Spring training can’t get here fast enough.

Paul Swydan: Oh, the wolves are out for sure. The Sox finished in last, the Patriots didn’t win the Super Bowl, the Bruins are still owned by Jeremy Jacobs, and no one is taking the Celtics too seriously yet. It’s going to be all negative for the foreseeable future with the Boston media.

Chuck: Why all the Shelby Miller hate? Did anyone see him pitch last year?

Paul Swydan: No one hates Shelby Miller. The hate is contextual thanks to the trade bounty he cost.

Jeff Zimmerman: He is a #3 to #4 starter. Good, but not great

Ryan: Which top 100 (or so) prospect list is your favorite: MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, FanGraphs KATOH, or FanGraphs Scounting-Based?

Paul Swydan: Obviously, I love what our guys do here. And I am particularly fond of Chris’ work, since I developed a relationship with him at THT. Otherwise, I like BA’s the best, simply for the historical precedent. BP and MLB do a great job though, as does John Sickels.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think BA is the best for now, it is all they do, but I love having different sources. Heck, I have my own ranking using just stats.

Jeff Zimmerman: 361 degrees is a good source also.

Stuafoo: The redirects away from the main site kind of made fangraphs unreadable on Friday (I’m pretty much always on mobile). What’s the deal? (PS I realize this is probably a question for a Dave)

Paul Swydan: It’s an ongoing issue, and we apologize for any inconvenience it causes. Whenever it becomes an issue, the best thing to do is honestly to fill out a contact form and describe your issue as specifically as possible. We are best able to deal with these problems when we have as many data points to attack the issue with as possible.

marlinfan: Has Ryan Zimmerman’s plantar fascistis(?) healed?

Paul Swydan: Jeff?

Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know, but probably not. Let me find a link on its reoccurrence.

Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/better-playing-times-estimates/

Jeff Zimmerman: Dickerson description

Billy Corman: Is there a metric-driven way to set a batting order, i.e. Bell curve of OPS or wRC+? Or is it still speed/OBP to power to guys in the field for defense?

Paul Swydan: This is something they covered in “The Book.”

Jeff Zimmerman: It is all in The Book

Jeff Zimmerman: One sec on an old BTBS article

Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

Justin: NL only $250 cap. My $19 Pollock for his $2 Turner/$6 D.Peralta?

Jeff Zimmerman: If for both, I would do it, if for either or, nope, keep Pollock

Paul Swydan: See, this is why we need all the info. Is this Justin Turner or Trea Turner? Either is possible. If it’s Justin, definitely not. If it’s Trea….maybe. I love me some AJ, and that’s a good price.

Minty: Giolito, Urias, or Berrios for dynasty league?

Paul Swydan: I would say Urias, since he hasn’t gone under the knife yet.

Jeff Zimmerman: Urias

Roger: Why can’t the O’s seem to close the deal on the most obvious upgrades? Kazmir was a perfect fit at a decent price. They had as much to trade for Dickerson/Blackmon as the Rays. Heck even Austin Jackson is still out there.

Jeff Zimmerman: They’re cheap

Paul Swydan: Well I’m not sure why they would want Austin Jackson, since that Adam Jones guy is pretty good. Same goes for Blackmon, though I suppose Blackmon might have enough value for a corner. The bottom line is that Duquette is always looking to win a trade, at least from his perspective. Execs like that can be a little harder to deal with.

Paul Swydan: But, no one is as hard to deal with us, and you did it, for a whole hour! So, kudos to you. We’ll be back next week to answer all the hard questions yet again. See you soon!