Projecting 2016 Team Strikeout Rates

I’m not sure if baseball is that much of a copycat league, but even if it is, the Royals make things a little tricky, because they’re the defending champs, but they didn’t exactly have just one identity. Think about the various team strengths. Some people think of the Royals as being the team with the defense that catches everything. Some people think of the Royals as being the team with the bullpen that doesn’t ever budge. And some people think of the Royals as being the team with the lineup that puts everything in play. Really, they’re all true — the Royals have played good defense, and they’ve relieved well, and they’ve kept opposing defenses on their toes. If you’re looking to copy the Royals, you have some decisions to make.

What I want to talk about here is contact, and therefore not striking out. We’ve seen teams load up on relievers, and it’s interesting. We’ve seen some other teams focus on improving the defense, although in fairness that’s been going on for a while. Contact is interesting because strikeouts have been going up, and the game just isn’t rewarding discipline like it used to. Hitters are more incentivized now to be aggressive, and though the Royals didn’t prove that, they’ve helped to drive the point home. I think, more than we’ve seen in a while, teams are searching for contact. They want to counter this undeniable trend.

It’s February now, the month in which spring training begins. Certain free agents remain available, but pretty much all the impact moves have been made. Rosters are nearly complete. Because of that, we can look at the projected strikeout landscape. Some numbers are more difficult to project, because they bounce around. I’m referring to stats like batting average. Strikeouts, though, are a good deal more stable. So which teams, right now, look like they’ll make the most and least contact?

The method was simple: I used Steamer-projected K%. Then I looked at our 30 current depth charts, and using those playing times as weights, I calculated a projected strikeout rate for every team. I should note that I’ve calculated K% for non-pitchers, since we don’t project pitcher hitting statistics. So if you want to mentally adjust these numbers, you can lift the NL rates a tiny little bit.

Here’s everything:

The numbers range from the Royals, at 16.3%, to the Brewers, at 22.3%. Last season, the numbers ranged from the Royals, at 15.8%, to the Cubs, at 23.5%. Once again, the Royals project to have the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball, and that shouldn’t be a surprise, because it’s kind of their thing, and they’re returning many of the same players. Steamer does project a smaller gap between the Royals and second place, but then the difference between first and second is still greater than the difference between second and sixth.

If you’re curious, the average last year was 19.9%, with a standard deviation of 1.7% among teams. The projected average for 2016 is 19.3%, with a standard deviation of 1.6%. I’d caution against making too much of the reduced average — Steamer might just be working with an inaccurate baseline. But I suppose there’s some chance Steamer is looking into the future and observing more frequent contact.

More interesting than the above plot, I think, is this plot of projected changes between 2015 and 2016. Negative numbers mean a reduced projected strikeout rate. So, improvement, at least as contact goes.

If you want to start at the bad side, the Brewers project to make less contact, and that’s in large part on account of Chris Carter. But then, if there’s a silver lining, the Brewers aren’t really looking to win much of anything this coming year, as the primary goal is young player development. (This is a lousy silver lining.) The Blue Jays also project to strike out a little more, coming from increased playing time going to Troy Tulowitzki and Michael Saunders. The core remains the core, so no one should worry too much.

The other end is more dramatic. No team projects to trim its strikeout rate by more than the Mariners, who also happen to be under new management. That management has emphasized contact and controlling the zone, and the preference has been reflected in some of the moves — like, say, signing Nori Aoki, or bringing in Adam Lind. The Mariners also said goodbye to Austin Jackson, Mark Trumbo, and Brad Miller, and Mike Zunino will be working on major swing changes in Triple-A. Give the Mariners this: they’re going to feel different, even if they stay unsuccessful.

The Nationals have the biggest projected drop in the NL. Ian Desmond is gone, and Michael Taylor ought to play less. Ditto Danny Espinosa. Ben Revere and Daniel Murphy have been brought in, and for all their alleged inadequacies, they both possess superior bat control.

The Cubs are interesting in third, and there are a couple obvious reasons — Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist are proven contact hitters. Beyond that, though, Steamer also figures Addison Russell is going to strike out plenty less, so that’s helpful. It’s in part about Heyward and Zobrist, and in part about steps forward from some of the youth. The Cubs should pose more of a challenge against powerful pitchers.

And just because I’m here, I’ll point out the Angels, who Buster Olney mentioned earlier Tuesday. I wouldn’t say Angels fans are thrilled with the present shape of the roster, but if you look at the newer players, Andrelton Simmons hits for relentless contact. Yunel Escobar puts the ball in play, and Craig Gentry has historically put the ball in play, and Daniel Nava has been an adequate contact hitter in the past. Carlos Perez isn’t new, but he’s a contact-hitting backstop, unlike Chris Iannetta. The Angels are going to put a little more pressure on defenses, pending whatever they choose to do in left field, if the current plan doesn’t stick.

There are players, naturally, who change their approaches, and the projections can miss them. Last year, for example, Matt Carpenter sacrificed contact for power. George Springer, on the other hand, sacrificed power for contact. So the numbers you see above aren’t going to all come true in the season ahead. But at least for now, the Royals remain the most contact-heavy lineup in the majors. That’s not a shock, but the Mariners, for their part, have lunged forward. So have the Nationals, and so have the Cubs. A good offense isn’t all about contact, mind you. Yet what some teams are looking for is offense and contact. Given the era, I don’t think you can blame them.