FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/3/15

by Paul Swydan

February 3, 2015

9:37	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to answer all of your base-and-or-balling queries. See you soon!

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hey guys, one minute and we’ll get started.

9:04	Paul Swydan: OK, here we go. Jeff is making more polls.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Glad to see BU is leading the Beanpot poll (of the four schools anyway).

9:05	Comment From Rated Rookie

9:05	Paul Swydan: I forget why he does this. This is from Fletch right? I need to whip out that DVD again soon.

9:06	Comment From Yo Why can’t teams negotiate backdoors on salary if certain minimums aren’t met?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Uh, because the players union doesn’t allow them?

9:06

Comment From Cronut Burger
Specific question for you on this fine evening, so I hope you’ll indulge me. I’m tormenting over whether or not to keep Jose Altuve at $33 in my AL-only league. I feel like he would go for that in the auction, and yet, $33 for Altuve seems a little steep. Your advice would be greatly appreciated!

9:07	Paul Swydan: Cronut Burger a – love that name b – what is the salary cap? on the face, that seems like too much, but i want more info!

9:08	Comment From Minty Is hoping for a September call up for Corey Seager crazy talk?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. In fact, depending on how Uribe is playing, I could see the last week of August call-up to make sure that he’s eligible for the playoff roster.

9:09	Comment From Jake Odor Easy I’ve read a number of articles raving that Jake Odorizzi will have a major breakout in 2015, and then a few saying the exact opposite. Where do you side in this debate?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I don’t see a huge breakout, no. I think he’ll build on last year, but major breakout seems a bridge too far. Just my two cents.

9:09	Comment From Roger Dodger Any chance Drew Smyly has a top-10 worthy 2015 season? He was lights out in the final month of the season…

9:10	Paul Swydan: There’s always a chance, but I would call it a very, very small chance.

9:10	Comment From El Guapo Why is Netflix not working right now?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Because the Seahawks passed up the middle from the 1-yard line, would be my guess.

9:11	Comment From James Shields It’s February and I still haven’t signed…Perhaps I overestimated my worth. Who will sign me in the end? Cardinals? Giants? Expos?

9:12	Paul Swydan: You think you overplayed your hand? Nahhhhhhhh! To be honest, I have sort of stopped caring. I think the fact is that Shields was a slightly above average pitcher next year, and I don’t see why I should be super excited about where he signs.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: You may be waiting for the first major TJS of the season.

9:12	Comment From Roy Top 5 rookies you’re most excited to watch this season?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Betts, Baez, Rodon…..

9:13	Paul Swydan: Mookie, Rusney, Bryant, Lindor, Rodon. Probably in that order.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Oh, and Soler. Does he count still? He does, I think.

9:14	Paul Swydan: And also Butler and Gray.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Rockies don’t get top shelf pitching prospects often.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Bryant for sure.

9:14	Comment From Benny Beanpot? You can continue pretending that the best college hockey rivalries aren’t west of the Great Lakes, but we know better.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Benny is feisty tonight. I like it. Especially when he’s wrong.

9:15	Comment From El Guapo You think the new turf in Toronto will actually help keep Edwin and Bautista healthy? Or is it just some Canadian jive?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I sure hope so. Not being a turf expert myself, I think we’ll just have to wait and see.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I heard the old turf was horrible. Worn out for years. Turf does seem to be related to more injuries.

9:16	Comment From Biggbiggyy Leave out one in a keeper: Rendon, puig, miggy Cabrera. Am I crazy to leave out Cabrera?

9:16	Paul Swydan: If Jeff’s poll is any indication, no you would not be.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I am considering heavily dropping him in a league with 4 keepers. I want to wait as long as possible until ST to find out.

9:18

Comment From RD
NL auction league, can keep up to 5, possible keepers – CarGo 30, Hamels 18, Rosenthal 17, Kolten Wong 14, Joaquin Benoit 12, Duda 9, Tyson Ross 8. Leaning Duda-Ross-Hamels-Wong-Benoit at moment, but does Rosenthal > Benoit? Is keeping two closers a good option? Thanks for any opinions.

9:18	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t keep two closers in general, and especially not those two. I wouldn’t keep Wong at 14. I would keep Hamels, Ross and maybe Duda, and call it a day.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you are good with your picks and Steamer right now has Benoit rated as the 5th best reliever in both leagues.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I’ll take the under on that. No offense to Steamer.

9:20	Comment From mtsw If you could coat the infield in some sort of hydrophobic substance would there be any reason not to play baseball in a snowstorm?

9:20	Paul Swydan: It would probably be hard to see the ball.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Baseball sucks in the cold, go and watch some colleges try to play this weekend

9:21	Comment From Biggbiggyy Corey Dickerson is being drafted like a full time, 650 pa guy. Is he such an animal?

9:22

Paul Swydan: I think he is CAPABLE of being that animal. Whether he is or not is going to depend on just how much in love with Blackmon and Stubbs Walt Weiss is, and how often CarGo can suit up. Judging by the fact that Blackmon has been on the Rockies little winter caravan tour, I’m guessing Weiss loves him quite a bit, so I’m wary of Dickerson getting to 650 PA, but I could just be paranoid.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: he may end up being that good, but not this season.

9:23	Comment From Biggbiggyy Keeper league, have Rendon for third or scond. So…..last keeper…..Machado, soler, or Dickerson?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Wow, tough one. I’ll say Soler, but you can’t really go wrong there.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Dickerson

9:24	Comment From Dave+in+London 11-team, AL-only 4×4 Auction, new team this year with $260 to spend. Should I keep JD Martinzez at $20, Jon Singleton at $6?

9:24	Paul Swydan: See, this is how we like these auction questions. We need to know how much money you have and what your format is.

9:25	Paul Swydan: And yes, I think those salaries are reasonable.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: JD probably, not a fan of Singleton, but he is probably good at that price

9:26

Comment From Sal
Gentlemen, 14 team keep 3, value based on last year’s draft slot plus inflation. My best options are Miggy (1st), C Gomez (2nd), Kluber (10th), Dickerson (20th), Betts (20th) and Richards (20th). I’m leaning heavily towards Miggy, Gomez and Dickerson. Thoughts? I know it’s better to move Miggy too soon than too late but I still think he has a couple of very good years left in him.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Miggy would be my last choice, actually. Not sure he’s a first-round guy anymore. Definitely Dickerson and Betts, and then one of Gomez or Kluber.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Really depends of if you are going for it or trying to get younger. You can go with your list or Pauls

9:28	Comment From bearproof More innings this year, Rodon or Syndergaard?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Rodon, simply because I don’t trust the Mets because they’re a bunch of morons.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Also, they have more starting pitcher candidates than do the White Sox.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Syndergaard

9:28	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!!!

9:29	Comment From Matthew Am I the only who would start Victorino over Castillo if he is healthy?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Rodon will be in the bullpen quite often

9:29	Paul Swydan: Jeff throwing shade at Rodon!

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he will get the Sale treatment

9:29	Paul Swydan: Getting back to Matthew’s question, no, I believe that will be Farrell’s decision as well, but that is a BIG if.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Back issues never go away

9:30	Comment From JJB Trying to convince my league to use saves+holds instead of each category separately. Thoughts?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Anything that makes relievers less important to have on your team is a good idea IMO. And it also gives you more of a reason to play closer-in-waiting games, which is fun.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: One I went to Saves+Holds+Wins, I like it, just get good pitchers.

9:31	Comment From Guest How would you feel about a point system in baseball? Teams could get an extra point for things like sweeps. Like hockey, they would also get a point for extra inning games.

9:32	Paul Swydan: How I feel is that points are stupid and I hate them.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, I don’t like it at all

9:32	Comment From Matt I really really want BC to lose to Northeastern(As a NEU grad and BU law student). Luckily BU’s team is insanely good.

9:32	Paul Swydan: I agree, BU’s team IS insanely good.

9:32	Comment From bearproof Most watchable AL pitching matchup this year: Felix vs Stroman or Felix vs Yu?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Felix vs Stroman.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: No Sale? For me it is Sale vs Felix.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Oh, ya, that guy.

9:33	Comment From Bryan G. Where do you think

9:33	Paul Swydan: I get my best thinking done in the bathroom.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: On the lawn mower

9:34	Comment From Bryan G. Where do you think Yoan Moncada ends up? One of the big-money contenders (NYY, BOS, LAD), or one of the other guys?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: NYY only

9:34	Paul Swydan: Oh I see, there was more to that question. Ahhh, MIS establos! I’ll take “mystery team” for $600, Alex.

9:35	Comment From Tom Where do you see Masterson in 2015 (closer to the 2014 ugliness or the 2013 goodness)?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Closer to 2013, but I’m not expecting greatness.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably somewhere in between

9:36	Comment From peachesnnuts Who are 3 guys in Yahoo default ranks you immediately thought “whoa, he is way too low”

9:36	Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, I haven’t looked at the default Yahoo rankings quite yet.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t seen their list yet

9:37	Paul Swydan: But if people want to chime in in the comments, feel free!

9:37	Comment From bearproof Note: Sale was eliminated due to Hawk……remember it was a ‘watchability’ question.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Mute button

9:37	Paul Swydan: Well I could — and would — say the exact same thing about Buck Martinez. It’s like listening to nails on a chalkboard.

9:38	Comment From Dave+in+London Can Josmil Pinto provide enough defense to unseat Suzuki as Minnesota’s starting catcher this year?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know, maybe.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I certainly think he could, but a lot of that comes down to timing. If Pinto gets off to a slow start, he’ll be behind the eight-ball for unseating Suzuki. That sort of thing.

9:39	Comment From Bryan G. Okay, here’s one for Jeff. Care to guess as to three big-league starters who will need TJS this season?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Ross, Tanaka and Darvish

9:40	Paul Swydan: I don’t get to guess? Aww man. I’ll say Wainwright, Tanaka and Clay Buchholz.

9:41	Paul Swydan: But maybe I just want Buchholz to get injured so I can stop looking at his wet hair.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Wainwright is up there also.

9:41	Comment From Rated Rookie Worth dropping Taijuan Walker and Carlos Rodon in order to draft Carrasco and Stroman?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I think that is definitely defensible. At the very least, drop Walker for Stroman.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I would make the exchange, I am not a huge Walker fan

9:42	Comment From Curtis More walks in 2015…Philip Hughes or Adam Jones?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Ha. I’ll say Hughes.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Jones actually

9:43

Comment From mtsw
What does stats/analytics-savvy writers’ readiness to pick defending the playcall on the play that resulted in -85% win expectancy in the most-watched American sporting event ever as their hill to die on say about said writers? Is there an overemphasis on counter-intuitive conclusions and going against conventional wisdom among analytics people?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think what it says is that a lot of people are desperate for clickthroughs and that that was a good way to get them.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said, easy views and everyone had to have an opinion

9:44	Comment From mtsw Oscar predictions?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t even know who is up?

9:45	Paul Swydan: My Oscar prediction is that a bunch of old white men will pick a stuffy film that was only seen by the old white men who vote for the Oscars. I gave up caring a few years ago.

9:45	Paul Swydan: They ostensibly expanded the best picture field to nine so that they could include more popular movies, and yet this year they just picked nine arthouse flicks. What a joke.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Movies like Rocky, Return of the King, The Godfather – movies people actually watch – used to win Best Picture. Now it’s all prestige movies. I can’t see why anyone cares at this point.

9:46	Comment From Cronut Burger More info for you: 11 teams, $260 cap, traditional 5×5, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, INF, 4 OF, UTIL, 7 P, 3 Bench. Hope that helps. Thanks!

9:47	Paul Swydan: Thank you Cronut Burger. I think it is more justifiable to keep a $33 Altuve because you have the $260 and because you have the extra INF position.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Altuve is a good at that price

9:47	Comment From Rated Rookie Whose offseason does this most resemble?

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Royals, starts out fine, but just got worse and worse

9:48	Paul Swydan: Hahahahahaha. The Braves? The Rangers?

9:48	Comment From Matt You are given Tom Brady in a universe where the NFLPA doesn’t suck. Is he worth a billion dollar contract considering Stanton’s $325M contract?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’m assuming by “doesn’t suck” you mean there is no salary cap? In that case, still no, because he’s 37. But 2004 Tom Brady, on the heels of 3 trophies in 4 years? Ya, maybe.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: He may have been, but not now.

9:49	Comment From Aaron lol american sniper arthouse lolol

9:50	Paul Swydan: I saw American Sniper a couple of years ago. It was called “The Hurt Locker.”

9:50	Comment From Guest whoever doesn’t know about the beanpot is missing out on a great sporting event

9:50	Paul Swydan: You tell ’em, Guest!

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: brb

9:50	Comment From mtsw Why do NFL QBs never need Tommy John surgery? It seems like the stresses they’d put on their arms would be similar, no?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Fair question. I would guess because they don’t throw nearly as often? They at most throw 50 x 22 balls at maximum strength. Major leaguer pitchers get to that level in about one-third of a season.

9:52	Paul Swydan: 50 balls per game x 22 games – 2 preseason, 16 regular season, 4 playoffs.

9:52	Comment From bearproof Best signs your leagues too deep? #1 Jesus Montero gets drafted on purpose. #2 ) You hear Andruw Jones is coming back so you try to do a conversion for his .220 AVG in the Japanese leagues. Others?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Uh,not any that are going to top that, no.

9:52	Comment From Matt Any league with a salary cap has a bad union. It is simply exists for owners to limit player’s salary under the guise of competitive balance.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: 3) You follow Carson’s fringe 5 for value picks

9:53	Paul Swydan: Ya, I’m not arguing that at all. Though I think with the NFLs non-guaranteed salaries, the idea of the salary cap is a little fuzzier than it is for baseball.

9:53	Comment From Jeffrey Mtsw: the throwing motion used to throw a football is more natural to your shoulder and puts less stress on your arm. Throwing a baseball is pretty bad for your arm; they also throw much less often than pitchers.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that’s a good point about throwing motion.

9:54	Comment From Tom 4) You are asking Dan S for Barry Zito projections?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Yikes.

9:54	Comment From Dave+in+London Major bounce-back for McCann this year, or has he become an old catcher in his early 30s? The shifts seem to really seemed to really do him in last season.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Bounce back, but not major bounce back.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I think there is some chance of a bounce back and it season wasn’t horrible

9:55	Comment From Minty Would you trade DeGrom/Posey/Lucroy for Carrasco/Carlos Santana/Tulo?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Yup. Unless you need two catchers on your team, I like that trade a lot.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but close.

9:57	Comment From guest Can Stroman be top 15 fantasy pitcher this yr? And should I trade him I have for $3 in Ottoneu 4×4?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Yes. If you have him for $3, definitely do NOT trade him.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes and don’t trade him unless you get a haul

9:57	Paul Swydan: As an aside, I wish I could boot the 8% of you who have voted for BC.

9:58	Comment From Matt It Does get tricky. I wouldn’t view a QB that differently from an elite pitcher, but gaurenteed contracts for a lineman would be very difficult

9:59	Paul Swydan: Guaranteed contracts in football for any player are difficult. Three years ago, a guaranteed contract for RGIII looked pretty damn good. And then Mike Shanahan decided he was another mule he could ride until he broke.