FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/7/17

by Paul Swydan

February 7, 2017

3:31

Paul Swydan:

Which recent contract do you think will work out the best?

Yankees sign Chris Carter (17.8% | 51 votes)

Rangers sign Mike Napoli (16.0% | 46 votes)

Cleveland signs Boone Logan (15.3% | 44 votes)

Blue Jays sign Joe Smith (1.3% | 4 votes)

Dodgers sign Sergio Romo (14.6% | 42 votes)

Royals sign Jason Hammel (16.7% | 48 votes)

All of them will be marvelous! (5.2% | 15 votes)

All of them will be horrible (1.0% | 3 votes)

Meh (11.5% | 33 votes)

Total Votes: 286

3:32	Paul Swydan: What would you do about intentional walks? Nothing (73.3% \| 195 votes) Go with Manfred’s proposal (24.4% \| 65 votes) Something else? (2.2% \| 6 votes) Total Votes: 266

3:35

Paul Swydan:

What was your favorite season of “Lost” ???

One (16.3% | 45 votes)

Two (5.4% | 15 votes)

Three (4.0% | 11 votes)

Four (1.0% | 3 votes)

Five (0.3% | 1 vote)

Six (0.3% | 1 vote)

I never watched “Lost” (55.6% | 153 votes)

Don’t make me choose! (4.3% | 12 votes)

None of them, “Lost” was terrible (12.3% | 34 votes)

Total Votes: 275

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Jeff might be a few minutes late.

9:01	anonymous: Isn’t run prevention (defense) more valuable than run production (offense) when available in equal amounts? Because you’re saving wear and tear on your pitchers…?

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Extra pitches don’t lead to injuries

9:02	Paul Swydan: That’s an interesting concept, but I think that would be very difficult to prove in a meaningful way.

9:02	ChiSox2020: First off- Episode 3 of Lost where there’s the big reveal that John Locke is in a wheel chair and can’t go on the walkabout is ALL TIME great.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Truth.

9:02	ChiSox2020: What’s a fair price for David Robertson from Nats? I’m thinking two mid level prospects maybe Severino/Nick Banks assuming Sox eat some $$$$$$$$.

9:03	Paul Swydan: I feel like if the White Sox and Nats were going to a Robertson deal it would have happened by now, but yes, two mid-level prospects seems right to me. He’s no Craig Kimbrel.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, I may need to leave you alone with Paul. FSWA awards are up tonight and I may get a call if I win.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Fingers crossed for Jeff – he’s up for five awards!

9:03	Jason : Does Schwarber for Archer straight up irl make sense?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I figured the Sox are going to hold off for the deadline and get a huge take

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: No. Schwarber > Archer

9:04	Paul Swydan: If Schwarber is really one of the 15 best hitters in the game and not Brett Lawrie 2.0, it might, but then if he’s that good, Archer alone might not be enough.

9:04	Devil Ray J. Johnson: Talk me through the scenario where the Rays make the playoffs

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: 30 players staying healthy and having career years

9:06	Paul Swydan: Well, the Rays would have to have a lot of injury luck — good injury luck for them, bad for the rest of the division. They’d need to get a few career years, and they’d need some weak spots on other teams — 3B for the Red Sox, for instance — to go horribly awry.

9:07	Paul Swydan: They’d need De Leon to be as advertised. It’d help if Kiermaier could go the whole year without killing himself. They’ll probably need some bullpen help.

9:08	Paul Swydan: It’s not impossible, but I just don’t see the standout hitter in the lineup, which narrows the ways they can win games.

9:08	Patrick Kane: I’m a White Sox fan, I should be excited about Moncada, but I have heard a TON of negativity. (Giolito too). Is this just normal prospect uncertainty or should I be crying my self to sleep?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Normal prospect uncertainty.

9:08	A Tribe Called Kipnis: Does Cleveland have the easiest path to the playoffs?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Or the Cubs

9:09	Paul Swydan: By the gap in wins in our projected standings between 1st and 2nd place teams, the Cubs have a slightly easier path (10 wins) than the Red Sox and Indians (9).

9:10	Paul Swydan: But the four teams below the Red Sox are grouped btw 79-83 wins, while the third place team in ALC has 77. So Cleveland wins that tiebreaker.

9:10	Hannah Hochevar: I realize the O’s have heaps of 1B/DH types, but what would you say to their taking a chance on BH Park? The bat has promise and, if demeanor is indeed an issue, maybe Kim can be a good influence.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I don’t see the harm in it, to be honest, but I expect he’ll try to sign somewhere where he can actually play.

9:11	Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : Yoan Moncada speaks spanish. Rick Renteria (the new White Sox manager) also can speak spanish. As Dave Cameron’s article suggests, communication is more important now than ever. Did the Sox make a savvy, under the radar move?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: What can it hurt

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it was a coincidence.

9:12	Paul Swydan: For more than just the Moncada connection, yes. Fluency is key. When players are able to speak freely in their native language, communication improves drastically.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think the Moncada part is a coincidence, but obviously the White Sox do have/will have other Hispanic players.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Also, Renteria is a good manager. He didn’t deserve the axe from the Cubs.

9:12	Hannah Hochevar: Are you now even less asleep on the Yankees? Seems like Carter’s a nice addition.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I am indeed now even less asleep on the Yankees. Great depth signing by them.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Nice move to help fill some holes

9:13	Guy Incognito: Does Tyler Austin return to AAA? Get traded? Seems like he proved himself in AAA last year, so what is to gain from sending him down?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: He would get regular at bats in the minors instead of sitting on the bench.

9:14	Paul Swydan: I agree he doesn’t have anything left to prove in the minors, but depth is never a bad thing. I don’t think they’ll move him, unless it’s to help fill another depth need.

9:15	Paul Swydan: In other words, I wouldn’t expect to see him traded for a younger prospect.

9:15	Jeff Smardhjkgfdjsklja: Why are the Dodgers projected to be better than the Cubs? The Cubs just had a historic season with essentially the same young nucleus of players returning. Am I missing something or did ten wins disappear like a fart in the wind?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: They may have problems replication a historic defense to start with.

9:17

Paul Swydan: Projection systems don’t care that the Cubs ended their long World Series drought. They’re worried about future performance, and just because everyone was awesome last year doesn’t mean they will be again in the future. If it DID always mean that, we wouldn’t be 16 years into a no-repeat-champs drought.

9:17	Camp: Name a player better than Nolan Arenado in the NL, both in fantasy and real life. You can’t, right?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Was Clayton Kershaw traded to the American League? What about Kris Bryant?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Harper was elite in ’15 also.

9:17

Dominik: Is the Dodgers depth a little overrated? Tons of average players but so much hinges on kershaw and seager. The depth in average players is good but if one of the big two gets hurt there is not much. On the other hand the cubs could replace one of their stars better (baez for bryant or schwarber for rizzo). It seems lIke the Dodgers match the cubs in superstars and even beat them in those average guys but the cubs have a lot more good players behind their superstars then the Dodgers have.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: What if Lester and Arrieta go down? Cubs have the same issues as the Dodgers.

9:19	Paul Swydan: There’s a couple of problems here. First, Seager is one of just four Dodgers projected to have a .345 wOBA or better. They have plenty of good hitters. Second, the fortunes of MOST teams come down to their best two players.

9:20	Paul Swydan: The Dodgers have 6 players forecasted for 3.0+ WAR. The Cubs have 7. So your claim that the Cubs have more stars is a bit off. Sorry you hate Joc Pederson and Justin Turner?

9:20

Vic: I have the 15th pick and the 30th pick in a 5 x 5 with many Top 30 picks already kept….ie Betts, Bryant, Correa etc etc….My question, I know I shouldn’t take Posey with the 15th, but due to Top 30 keepers already being kept later in the draft, Posey might not last until Pick 30. Take the chance, or definitely get him at #15? 2 catcher league.

9:21	Paul Swydan: I don’t have any issue with taking him at 15 in a 2-catcher league. It’s a bit of a reach, but if you think you need him, then do it.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: That is about right for him. He won’t last to the 30th pick

9:21	Julio Urias: over/under 150 IP?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I’ll take the over.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Over

9:23	magicarpenter: A recent article on the cardinals claimed they have no stars. I agree they have no celebrity power, but isn’t Matt Carpenter a star? Like, isn’t he one of the top players in the league when healthy?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I guess it depends on your definition of star. Steamer has Carpenter as the 55th-best position player overall, 24th-best in the NL. Is that a star? It’s not to me, but maybe you take a wider view.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s good but not a star. Very even team right now.

9:25	AO: I just bought season tickets for the first time and now a four week trial I’m working on has been pushed back to the week after opening day, which is going to be an incredibly busy time during which we prepare. I’m entitled to leave work to make a 1:10 first pitch, right?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Pretty sure you’re going to have early onset bronchitis that week, my friend. It’s in the air. I know it, you know it, everyone knows it.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: It happens

9:26	Dr Evil: Padres have taken I think 6 players in the Rule 5 draft the last 2 years. Should there be a limit on how many players a team can take? Seems like they are shotgunning it and hoping one pans out, but it potentially sets back the development of the guys returned

9:26	Paul Swydan: Nope. That’s their right. If the union was worried about setting back the development back of these handful of players every year, then they’d negotiate for that.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: No, it is just 5 of the players rated 800th or worse in baseball.

9:27	Curious: hmmm, interesting to see so many questions about the dodgers vs. cubs. It’s not really hard to see on paper why the dodgers and cubs are so similar in expectations.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Oh, I’m sure it’s going to be a major question force between now and Opening Day, especially after we all but declared that we’re on the verge of a Cubs dynasty after the World Series.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Cubs fans are pissed not to be #1

9:28	Paul Swydan: Please believe, there’s no shame in being projected to win 94 games. Last year, IIRC, there wasn’t a team pegged over 91.

9:28	Curious: how did napoli get 8.5 while carter got 3 and then how’d trumbo get 3/37.5?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Because Brian Cashman is really, really, really good at his job? It doesn’t get said enough.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea. I don’t understand the 1B/DH market

9:29

Guest: On from Australia, thought the chat was broken. Turns out I just can’t do time. Given that a few prospects have come out of the Australian Baseball League recently and carved out reasonable MLB careers to this point (Gregorius, Keon Broxton, Maurer to name a couple), do you think the league is a reasonable place for higher end prospects to come to, or will it be further down the pecking order in terms of level of prospects or players coming out here.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Wow, thanks for tuning in all the way from Australia!

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Further down for guys to work on aspects of the game.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, like the old Hawaii Baseball League – which I was a big fan of – it is unlikely to be a destination for top flight talent, because the teams don’t want to send them so far away from home. Teams are risk averse.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Also I think the league as a limit of MLB players

9:31	Paul Swydan: Right, that too.

9:31	Deep Keep : I’m in a deep Keeper league I need to choose 4/5 SP, from best to worst these 5 (Smyly, Pomeranz, Mchugh, Descalfani, Lynn) , GO

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Pomeranz, Descalfani, McHugh, Smyly, Lynn

9:33	Paul Swydan: Well, do we know that Pomeranz is definitely a SP this year? I don’t think we definitely know that yet. So, that could make your decision real easy. Assuming they’re all SPs, I agree with Jeff, Lynn is a risky bet coming off of TJ.

9:33	John: Ben Lindbergh wrote a fantastic piece for The Ringer yesterday where he asserted that competitive advantages between front office analytical staffs have significantly dropped. Where is the next market inefficiency? Is there one? Because if not that would be boring.

9:33	Paul Swydan: It would also be boring if we could predict the next market inefficiency, no?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I think taking care of MILB players is one.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that’d be nice.

9:34	Curtis: Who is the worst position player currently on a 25 man roster?

9:35	Paul Swydan: The Dbacks signed Daniel Descalso today. He’d have to be in the conversation.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Is Matt Garza still on it?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Yonder Alonso has gotta be in the convo too. No idea why he’s still in the majors.

9:36	magicarpenter: I’ve always thought Lost and the OC had two of the best pilots I’ve ever seen

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: OK

9:37	Paul Swydan: I’d support this statement. Of course, the OC went downhill a lot faster.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Of course, both shows had the fantastic Alan Dale. http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0197638/?ref_=ttfc_fc_cl_t33

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I never followed either

9:38	Paul Swydan: Shocker.

9:38	The Cincinnati Kid: Could you spitball a little bit on how you would approach a league that has the following settings: QS, IP, WHIP, ERA, K, and Net Saves + Holds (6 cats total)

9:39	Paul Swydan: I’d probably focus on SPs and set-up guys.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Stud starters for QS and some great setup man. Also, depends on daily or weekly lineups.

9:39	Sonny: Chris Carter made so much sense for the Red Sox that the Yankees signed him! feels like 2003 all over again

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: E5 made sense for the Red Sox even more

9:41	Paul Swydan: Are we comparing Chris Carter to the A-Rod trade?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Even comparing it to the Tom Gordon signing seems like a stretch…

9:41	David Ortiz: am I pulling a Brett Favre/MJ this year?

9:42	Paul Swydan: No. Also, I don’t remember Bret Favre unretiring?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think he is done. He has nothing to prove on his non-existing knees.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Feet. It’s his feet that really hurt.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Well, maybe knees too. Who knows.

9:43

Luda: I’m in a 10 team $260 cap Only 6×6 league (holds and TB+BB) where we keep 8. The first 6 rounds of draft are snake draft (we use an auction calculator and you get the player for whatever his auction calculator or book value is) and the rest of the roster is filled out by auction. What would your strategy be during those first 6 rounds. There’s decent options in the auction but none of the top tier talent will be left, would you worry about how much you had left going into the auction? We also have a 5 round “reserve” draft to select our bench after the main draft is over, cap doesn’t count towards this. Is the reserve draft where you would draft your holds guys?

9:43	Paul Swydan: This wins for longest question of the night.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I would keep the best players. Holds for sure in the reserve round as long as some are available.

9:45

Paul Swydan: First, I would just try to get the best guys available in the first six rounds, I wouldn’t sweat the cap $$. Second, I generally think of reserve drafts as the place where you draft prospects. I suppose that if you are gunning for a title you could make an exception and use a couple of those slots for holds guys, but I would make sure you save at least 2 picks in the reserve draft for prospects. If nothing else, having prospects at the ready gives you chips to make midseason trades without breaking up your core team.

9:47	Pragmatist: Doesn’t it make sense to expect some regression from Lester, Jake and Hendricks?

9:47	Paul Swydan: It does indeed. Don’t tell the Cubs fans.

9:47	Whoa Nelly: Is there any reason for the Dodgers to ever be bad again, aside from mismanagement? Doesn’t seem like they have a window in the same way other teams do anymore. Also, can the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, and other big money teams reach a similar status?

9:48	Paul Swydan: They all could, but you could have said that through eternity. Life rarely cooperates, unfortunately. We’re just human.

9:48	Guest: Thanks for answering my ABL question mates! The ABL is still a good league to follow down here as it has an interesting blend of US and Asian prospects of all experiences, plus the best local talent.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Indeed. We have featured the ABL a couple of times at THT. I am a fan.

9:49	Guy Incognito: I have to wonder if there is a correlation between the poor market for 1B/DH sluggers and market inefficiency. Maybe they all realize something we don’t yet.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Could be, but I doubt it.

9:49	magicarpenter: re Australia: i dont think too many young men want to move 10k miles when there are so many opportunities here. look at basketball: a HS grad could go play pro for a year or two in turkey or russia or wherever that has good talent, but most just play for free in ncaa

9:50

Paul Swydan: Yes, but two points. The comparison isn’t apples to apples. Playing as a pro in Turkey or Russia a) carries more personal safety risks than does Australia and b) it’d be your main job. When MLB sends players to Australia, it’s with the knowledge that they have jobs back in the States when they’re done.

9:51

Paul Swydan: For those that aren’t with major league clubs, it’s a chance to play baseball and see one of the most beautiful places in the world, and a place where all things considered, you don’t have to sweat your safety all that much. That’d be a pretty interesting proposition to me, I know that.

9:52	Phil: Standard 5×5, up to 3 keepers… I am definitely keeping Mookie, but trying to decide if I should keep both Correa and Sale and lose the first three rounds, or let one or both go and luck it out in the draft?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Those three guys are all worth keeping.

9:52	Curious: I am a cubs fan and am most certainly not pissed. The dodgers are really good. Also being #1 doesn’t really = ws in the baseball

9:52	Paul Swydan: Thanks for being Rational, Curious.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, back

9:53	John: Do you think Sano will ever become the star many thought it would become? His hit tool was once thought of to be advanced. Think he justs swings too hard and tries to hit homers too much?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I think we will be like Chris Davis-like

9:53	Paul Swydan: I think that all Minnesota hitters are suspect until they become proven. Maybe that will change under the new regime.

9:54	KZone: Who would you rather have for your last keeper in a 5×5 OBP league. $285 cap keep 15. $5 Taillon or $5 Greg Bird

9:54	Paul Swydan: Taillon, but I’d try to keep both.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Tailion

9:55	Chaps: Dodgers vs. Cubs seems like a matchup of 2 large-market teams. What would be a plausible World Series match-up between 2 small-market teams? (I know the Dodgers & Cubs can’t meet in the WS, just got me thinking)

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Cards and Indians

9:56	Paul Swydan: Cleveland vs. …… St. Louis I guess? Most of the good NL teams are major market teams.

9:56	Terry: Would you rather have Chris Carter or Byung Ho Park?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Carter. I know he can hit 40 home runs

9:57	Paul Swydan: Depends. If I’m a contender, I’d rather have Carter, because I know who he is. If I’m rebuilding/middling, I’d rather have Park, because he could still have some upside.

9:57	Javier Baez: Think I ever blossom into a star/top flight MLB player?

9:57	Paul Swydan: No, but I’m still going to enjoy your career a great deal.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: No, too much swing-and-miss

9:58	Tom: Which young Reds pitcher has the most potential for a breakout season?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Cingrani

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: no

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Descalfani

9:59	Paul Swydan: Whichever one of Stephenson and/or Finnegan learns how to control his walk rate.

9:59	Paul Swydan: I know the FANS projection is bullish on Desclafini as well.