FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/25/17

by Paul Swydan

April 25, 2017

6:46

Paul Swydan:

What is your favorite flavor of original Starburst?

Cherry (24.2% | 49 votes)

Lemon (11.3% | 23 votes)

Orange (13.8% | 28 votes)

Strawberry (38.6% | 78 votes)

I can’t decide! (3.9% | 8 votes)

I don’t like any of them (4.9% | 10 votes)

I’ve never eaten original Starburst (2.9% | 6 votes)

Total Votes: 202

6:50

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7 pm matchup?

TB (Ramirez) vs. BAL (Miley) (1.5% | 3 votes)

CHC (Hendricks) vs. PIT (Cole) (44.7% | 86 votes)

SEA (Hernandez) vs. DET (Zimmermann) (12.5% | 24 votes)

CIN (Feldman) vs. MIL (Davies) (2.6% | 5 votes)

Rain vs. Mankind (38.5% | 74 votes)

Total Votes: 192

6:54

Paul Swydan:

What is the best 8 pm or later matchup?

MIN (Santana) vs. TEX (Cashner) (6.3% | 12 votes)

KC (Duffy) vs. CHW (Covey) (1.0% | 2 votes)

TOR (Estrada) vs. STL (Wacha) (29.7% | 56 votes)

WAS (Ross) vs. COL (Marquez) (5.3% | 10 votes)

SD (Richard) vs. ARI (Corbin) (4.7% | 9 votes)

OAK (Hahn) vs. LAA (Ramirez) (0.5% | 1 vote)

LAD (Kershaw) vs. SF (Blach) (52.1% | 98 votes)

Total Votes: 188

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01	Alex: 10 team OPS league should I trade Cruz, Cespedes, Chris Davis for Rizzo and Daniel Murphy?

9:01	Paul Swydan: Are you saying should you trade all of those players? I don’t think you are? Of the players you have listed, I wouldn’t trade Rizzo, but I’d probably be ok with dealing 1 of the other 3 for Murphy.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Tough call, I think I would keep the 3

9:02	Paul Swydan: I mean, if you have Davis and Rizzo and need a 2B…

9:02	Ceej : What’re the odds that once Joc comes back, Bellinger goes back down for service time issues?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, I guess we’ll find out soon enough, I’m sure someone will ask Dave Roberts. He’s got a great opportunity to get off to a good start. One way to make yourself memorable is to do damage against the Giants.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Service time is no longer the issue, just Super 2 ($$$) and the Dodgers have plenty of $$$$$

9:03	Paul Swydan: My guess is that they wouldn’t call him up now if they weren’t prepared to have him up all season. So if they send him down, it may not be for service time monkeying.

9:04	hscer: asked this once a year or two ago: will Harper manage a .500 OBP season in his career?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I’ll say no. Not that his .460 OBP season was anything to shake a stick at.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:04	Jordan: Need good hitters out of these for H2H league: Puig, Rendon, Bautista, Moreland, Conforto, Hosmer. Which two would you pick?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Rendon, Conforto (if he keeps playing) and if not then Puig/Bautista. Can’t quit Bautista yet.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Puig and Bautista (most upside)

9:06	JP: 12 man H2H league. Q) Hold Bautista until _________. 1) Dump now. 2) Early May. 3) Late May. 4) What do you mean? Keep holding.

9:06	Paul Swydan: 3 or 4

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: 3

9:07

Puig’s Left Bicep: Is there something to be had for the related velocity of pitches with similar movement to each side? For example, an 84mph slider paired with a 84mph change that move similarly and tunnel off the fastball are more effective than greater pitch pairing velo differentials? Too many factors to say?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I think generally speaking the most important velo difference is that you want separation between your fastball and your changeup/offspeed stuff.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul

9:08	Jason: is Austin Hedges already a top 5 catcher? How good is his bat and how elite is his defense?

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: No, do it for a couple years.

9:09	Paul Swydan: It’ll be tough to be a top 5 catcher with that BB% and K%. Not prepared to say just yet on his defense. Like Jeff said, let’s give it some time.

9:09	Boom Boom Mancini: Hi Paul, again with a Meadows question. Do you like his chances of being up before June OR, as I have seen speculated, will the Pirates require him much more seasoning and aim for next year?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I don’t think he’ll need to wait until next year unless he’s really bad at Triple-A this season.

9:10	Paul Swydan: So far, he’s been really bad at Triple-A, but hope springs eternal.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Once he’s hit AAA for a couple months, then he’ll be up

9:10	BoJack Horseman: No early polls? Damn it Paul, get your shit together! Ask about BoJack, give the people what they want!

9:10	Paul Swydan: Sorry Bojack, nobody felt worse about it than me, I assure you.

9:11	DbackGrit: Is there still reason to worry about Greinke? Velocity is down, but other peripherals look good. Maybe it won’t hurt him as much because he relies on tunneling more than his velocity?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Jeff can speak to the health issues better than I can.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes there is worry. I wrote about the risk last week

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mash-report-greinke-lackey-and-tomlin…

9:12	Paul Swydan: Statistically, things seem fine. But the health is the bigger concern.

9:12	Nelson: This new 10day dl is wrecking my fantasy team. In losing players by the minute

9:12	Paul Swydan: ME TOO. I feel your pain. I was whining about this on Twitter yesterday.

9:13	Paul Swydan: In one league, I have Miggy, Tulo, Gary Sanchez, Britton and Sonny Gray on the DL, with Pedroia soon to join him.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure. I like that I know the player is gone instead of waiting a week to make the decision.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Probably.

9:14	Paul Swydan: In a vacuum, I love that Jeff. But I have been very unlucky with lots of DL players so far. I think next year I will be pushing for extra DL slots in my leagues!

9:14	Billy Beane: Thames/Joey Bats or Villar/Pollack. Which side do you like? Thames seems like a monster, but Pollack is pretty great. The other two pieces are pretty meh. Joey Bats seems done to me?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I’ll take Thames/Bautista.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Really comes down to if you need stolen bases or home runs

9:15	Theo: Why aren’t the Rockies being talked about as possible destinations for Jose Quintana? They have the prospect depth to meet the demand. It’s already hard enough to get any free agent pitchers to go there

9:16	Paul Swydan: Well, one, nobody ever talks about the Rockies. Two, the Rockies suddenly have lots of pitching depth. Three, it’s April.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Wait until the trade deadline. The White Sox will. Teams will increase the desperation as they get closer to the season’s end.

9:17	Boo Marte!: E5 off to a slow start and wondering if I should move him now for another bat while the season is still young. with Marte suspended and JD Martinez out, its been a tough first month.

9:17	Paul Swydan: I feel your pain, but I’d hold onto E5 for now.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Hold for now and at least you are holding Hosmer

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: or maybe you are.

9:18

Frank: Re Otani in fantasy leagues, several services have said they anticipate having both a pitching Otani and a hitting Otani listed. Which of these do you think a league should do:

1. Require the team who drafts him to declare him as either a pitcher or a hitter
2. Require the team who drafts him to use him as both a hitter and pitcher
3. Allow the team who drafts him to be either a pitcher, a hitter, or both
4. Have pitching Otani and hitting Otani as two separate players
5. Something else?

9:19	Paul Swydan: 5 – What you said in 4, but you don’t have to draft them separately, you just have to use 2 different roster spots for him.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Which would be weird, I think. Either way, I think 4 is the best solution.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Too early to tell. #4 makes the most sense

9:20	Jesus: I would just like to point out that people are sleeping on David Peralta. Bats 2nd vs RHP and 7th vs LHP in a potent lineup. Only owned in 20% of ESPN leagues. FOR SHAME!

9:20	Paul Swydan: I have him in Ottoneu, I know that much.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, I guess. And it’s ESPN.

9:21	Jesus: Is this Zimmerman-Palooza going to continue or should we be trying to sell high? My brain says yes, but my heart says ride it out because he’s hitting cleanup in a top 5 lineup

9:21	Paul Swydan: Every week at this chat it’s always Zimmerman-Palooza!

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Sell on Zimmerman, I have inside information 😉

9:22	Steve Zissou: Will Joey Gallo potentially replace Choo at DH?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: He might. Gallo needs to keep making contact

9:24	Paul Swydan: This seems unlikely, but if Choo doesn’t pick it up…

9:25	Paul Swydan: Then again, Choo is hitting better than Gallo.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Or maybe I’m looking at 2016 stats. Damnit.

9:25	Paul Swydan: DISREGARD THIS WHOLE THREAD

9:25	Starting Pitching: Who has a better year for the Pirates Cole or Nova?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Wow, someone has a very high opinion of Nova.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: FYI: Choo’s OBP: .357, Gallo’s ISO: .359

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I may take Nova right now. Cole is a mess

9:27	Paul Swydan: Cole was awesome tonight!

9:28	Villar: Is Villar still good for 15hr & 40 steals?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Still might not be as good as Nova as been

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: The projections are close, he needs to get the strikeouts under control

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Swing% up, Contact% down

9:30	Paul Swydan: I mean, yes, but he needs to get that BABIP back up. And the Ks, like Jeff said.

9:30	Doziet: Does Dozier still hit 30 hr in 2017?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I’ll say no.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: No, probably not. I could still see 25

9:31	Carlos Martinez: Am I broken or can these walks be fixed?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Walks can be fixed.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, not broken

9:32	BoJack Horseman: Damn it, Paul way to put in a poll after I complain about it. Now everyone will think I’m just a stupid actor from a garbage sitcom who never amounted to anything. But I’m a good person, I just keeping these horrible mistakes and life is meaningless.

9:32	Paul Swydan: That was my plan all along Bojack.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul hates Bojack

9:33	Paul Swydan: I love Bojack!

9:33	rustydude: In Otto Fg pts league, is asking for $67 Trout & $51 Giancarlo too much to ask in return for an affordable $11 Thames, from a team that is going to punt the season? Thames may qualify at OF before the season ends and may provide a lot of surplus value in the off season.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: In all fairness, you are giving up the most surplus value. I don’t see a problem with it.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Yeah but I probably wouldn’t want to do that. Even if I’m punting, it’s not like Trout and Stanton are going for cheaper next year.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Well, maybe Stanton.

9:36	Coldbottom: “Antonio Senzatela ” sounds super sexy if you say it three times in a row, in a dimly lit room, with a husky voice and some conviction. Y’all buying, or am I wearing after dark chat beer goggles?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m buying

9:37	Paul Swydan: I think it sounds sexy no matter how many times you say it. I’m in.

9:38	Big Tuna: A lot of teams are after me for Holland because of his hot start. Is trading now selling high or just selling? You have to start 4 RP in my league, so closers have lots of value.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Just selling. He’s in the 10 to 15 range of RP, which is valuable.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m on board with selling.

9:40	ppeters: Byron Buxton doubled his walk total last night. Is there any chance this triggers something in him going forward?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Here’s hopin!

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: No, he seems lost.

9:41	Big Tuna: Would you trade Gausman for Moreland in a 12 tm OPS?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Probably not.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:42

Bright Lights: Minute Maid Park is looking like it’s gotten really pitcher friendly over the last 2 seasons thanks to some LED lights aimed at the batters. Do you think this is a trend that is going to happen in more ballparks, but with more intention? Like create “hot spots” and “cold spots” and have fielders avoid the hot spots? Maybe make it harder for left hand hitters if you have a right hand heavy lineup? Could this be the new homefield advantage?

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: I think if teams push it too far, MLB will crack down

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Teams will need to limit the interference.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Agreed.

9:45	12 to 6: At what point should a fan start rooting their team towards a protected draft pick instead of a playoff spot?

9:45	Paul Swydan: September 15th.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Once effectively out of the race and it won’t matter for the teams just eliminated because the top few spots are taken.

9:46	12 to 6: These people voting for lemon starburts need to have their tastebuds checked

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I think talent flattens after 10 picks or so. Will check.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:46	Paul Swydan: I dunno, I’ve been more partial to lemon lately.

9:47	Rudy: I dropped my streamer sport to pick up Bellinger in a shallow HTH league just to get him first. Would you drop Moreland for him? I could also drop Joseph or Shaw. Or Bellinger.

9:48	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure which Joseph you mean, but ……. Joseph.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d take a shot on Bellinger for all three. The other lack Bellinger’s upside

9:49	Dozier some nice Hanigers: What metrics do you start with when looking at which players to start each day? I know BvP is mostly a wasted stat, but what are a couple others of which you would first look?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I generally try to keep it simple. Quality and handedness of starting pitcher, last 7/14 days stats.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I just looked and MLB.com has the top 15 draft prospects with a 55 grade or higher. Then a 50 grade for the rest (to #50)

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: No daily leagues for me, I like to take too many camping vacations.

9:50	John Lackey: Anyone who hits a home run off of me is clearly on steroids. I’m looking at you A.J. Burnett in July of 2015!!! No one ever just gets better at baseball. Everyone is cheating except me.

9:51	Paul Swydan: I legitimately laughed at this. We’re going to miss John Lackey when he retires.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s done, I expect him to be on the Kansas Stars soon.

9:52	SP: Evening Fella’s. I have an injured David Dahl on my bench, with Conforto on waivers, do I make the switch?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe try to trade Dahl first

9:53	Paul Swydan: Agreed. With Parra hitting well, Dahl is now basically in the same situation as Conforto, except we know Conforto is already hitting well.

9:53	Dee’s nutz: In a 12 teamer with six bench spots can I drop Bird? Everyone keeps saying he’s going to come around.im sure the minute I drop him, he’ll hit 5 home runs in a week.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I’d hold onto him.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on your options but feel free to move on

9:54	Grape: I am six months old. Will the Mariners win a WS in my lifetime?

9:54	Paul Swydan: First, you are very advanced for a six-month-old, Grape! Congrats on that. Second, yes. I believe.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:56

Matt: I don’t know if either of you have experience this, but have you ever deal with people abusing analytics on business end? I’ve been experiencing a lot of business trying to be more analytic/metric driven, but it seems to be reminding me of baseball years ago. If I suggest a certain metric could not have a large enough sample or doesn’t tell us much…Etc, I get a lot of people trying to weasel out of answering those questions. A lot of “he is hitting .400 vs. Pitcher X”, of course that is meaningful” kinda talk. It can be incredible frustrating.

9:57	Paul Swydan: I can’t honestly say I’ve dealt with that particular instance, but in my experience, when people don’t believe you at work, the worst thing you can do is to lose your cool.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: The best way to fight this is to find examples of it failing. In baseball bring of Bonifacio. There has to be some in every industry

9:58	Paul Swydan: Yeah, emotional examples are sometimes better than statistical ones.

9:59	Jared: I have Lucroy who takes about 2 games off a week. Am I better off getting rid of him for someone who actually plays every day?

9:59	Paul Swydan: It is rare that a catcher plays every day, and you probably wouldn’t want the ones who did on your fantasy team. Lucroy is fine.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: The only catchers who play every day are Perez and Molina. Perez is probably owned and Molina sucks.