Help Evaluate Some of the Game’s Worst Hitters

Hello! Yesterday I posted this. In that post, I briefly discussed five outrageously hot offensive starts — specifically, those achieved by Eric Thames, Bryce Harper, Eugenio Suarez, Mitch Haniger, and Aaron Judge. I solicited feedback in the form of a rest-of-season wRC+ projection for each bat. Although I didn’t include every hitter off to a scorching start, I touched on five of significant interest, and your overall participation level has been great. Thank you for that — without participants, these polls would be super embarrassing.

Comments and tweets were left suggesting I run a similar post, focusing on guys who’ve been bad hitters. This has happened because humans love symmetry, and also because it’s just simply the obvious thing to do. So now, same thing, with different players owning very different numbers. Again, the post below doesn’t cover everyone who’s mired in a slump — sorry for those of you who want to read about, say, Carlos Gonzalez or Keon Broxton or Jonathan Lucroy. I’ve chosen five players and stuck with five players, and I’d love it if you’d participate once more. There’s no such thing as a participation trophy, but if there were, you could get one! All for placing an internet vote. (Actually up to five internet votes.)

Byron Buxton

• Current wRC+: -13
• Rest-of season projected wRC+: 83

The most obvious of all players to include. I think it’s not just that Buxton had such a promising month last season — it was his last month, which meant we had all offseason to dwell on how promising it seemed. So the hype train might’ve gotten a little out of control, and now we’re here, with Buxton once again looking entirely helpless against major-league competition. I know I’ve made this crack dozens of times before, but wRC+ is a statistic with a plus in the name. Byron Buxton’s wRC+ is negative. Even his numbers are backwards.

Buxton’s been bad because his strikeouts have been bad. Why have his strikeouts been bad? Because his contact rate has been bad. Pitchers have opted to throw Buxton fewer fastballs, and he hasn’t yet had an answer. He’s been credited with literally one line drive. Meanwhile, he’s hit five routine pop-ups. His soft-hit rate is more than twice as high as his hard-hit rate, and four of his six base hits have stayed in the infield. Everybody knows about the tools. The tools are no less present than ever. The question is, will he ever know how to use them?

Dansby Swanson

• Current wRC+: -6
• Rest-of season projected wRC+: 82

This one’s been quieter. Relative to Buxton, Swanson hasn’t generated the same kind of hype, and he also isn’t experiencing the same sort of strikeout problem. Strikeouts are the most conspicuous outs, so Swanson’s slump has been a bit more under the radar. But we’re talking about a wRC+ gap of seven points. Swanson’s still negative. Of the 224 players who’ve batted at least 50 times, Swanson’s been more productive than only Buxton, Leonys Martin, and Paulo Orlando. This is the young player who’s supposed to be safe.

Something just about everyone bad has in common: a low BABIP, and limited power. Swanson has one home run, and only 10 hits. Compared to last year, his exit velocity is very slightly *up*, and his launch angle has also increased. That seems like it should be good news, but Swanson’s been exposed against heaters and sliders, and he’s walked only twice. You could say he’s been caught in-between, and one wonders if he’s had trouble adjusting to the top of the order after spending the bulk of his debut hitting eighth. The Braves will be patient, but the same might not be said of their fans.

Gregory Bird

• Current wRC+: 23
• Rest-of season projected wRC+: 102

So much for carryover momentum. Bird was, by a fair margin, the best hitter in spring training, and that’s without adjusting for Florida’s more pitcher-friendly environment. To all observers, it looked like Bird’s game hadn’t missed a beat, and one would’ve wondered whether Chris Carter would ever get a chance to play. Carter might now feel a little worse about the Yankees but a little better about his own playing-time projection. Bird has five hits out of 54 chances. He’s gone deep once, and he’s had issues pulling the ball.

Bird’s hard-hit rate is just fine. The issue seems to be twofold: Bird’s contact rate so far has plummeted, and he’s hitting nearly twice as many balls as before out toward left. Bird isn’t a zero when he goes the other way, but he’s supposed to be benefiting from the Yankee Stadium porch. That’s one of his major selling points. In a sense, Aaron Judge has been on fire the way Bird was supposed to be, and Bird has been slumping the way people expected Judge to slump. All right.

Alex Gordon

• Current wRC+: 37
• Rest-of season projected wRC+: 92

Gordon didn’t just start slumping. In case you missed it, he turned in a mediocre season a year ago, when he saw his strikeout rate spike. Some tried to pin that on injuries he sustained, but the whiffs began early, even when Gordon was fine. Anyway, fast-forward, the good news: Gordon’s strikeouts are now back to normal. He’s making a league-average amount of contact again. But the contact itself is not what it was. So now Gordon just has a new problem, which is preventing the Royals from scoring consistent runs.

Gordon has always been a fly-ball hitter. His career grounder rate is 39%. Last year’s grounder rate was 38%. His current grounder rate is 59%, and he hasn’t hit a homer. Gordon’s hitting grounders like Christian Yelich, without hitting the ball as hard as Yelich always does. He’s struggled to elevate anything down and away. It could be a simple timing issue. It could just be a few too many mis-hits, that don’t mean anything. But Gordon was supposed to be a safe and reliable investment when the Royals gave him a new contract. The Royals can’t afford to miss with that much money.

Jose Bautista

• Current wRC+: 38
• Rest-of season projected wRC+: 121

Bautista isn’t the sole reason why the Blue Jays are where they are in the standings, but he’s probably the face of their slump, since he’s been the face of their team. So many different players have been hurt, or they haven’t been pulling their weight, but Bautista doesn’t do what he does in the shadows. People notice when he’s on fire, and people notice when he’s cold.

There was hope that this would be a bounceback campaign. And, you know, it could still turn out that way. Bautista’s eye hasn’t gotten any worse, as determined by his various swing rates. He still has one of the best strike-zone ideas in the sport. But, you know — Bautista, historically, has made 81% contact. So far, he’s made 71% contact. His whiffs are up both in the zone and out of it, and Bautista, rather uncharacteristically, has struggled most against fastballs. Have I mentioned that he hasn’t pulled the ball? Bautista’s whole game is to left and left-center. Instead of pulling the ball half the time, Bautista to this point has pulled the ball a third of the time. So his hard-hit rate has cratered, and the picture is painted of a guy who just isn’t catching up. How much can he still do at 36? Don’t look at me, I’m not God. You’re the people I’m crowdsourcing. There’s a poll! There’s a poll right there!