FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/4/13

by Paul Swydan

June 4, 2013

6:27

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Just another day around here at FanGraphs. I was busy pulling off the steal of the ESPN Franchise Player Draft:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9341222/jurickson-profar-steal-franchise-player-draft-mlb

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/franchise130603/espn-franchise-player-draft

And Jeff was busy introducing a new and very helpful injury finder:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mash-report-6413-introducing-hidden-hitter-injury-finder

And Chris? Well, Chris is still on vacation, so he’s useless. But Jeff and I are putting in enough work to cover for him. And we’re STILL ready to do more work for you, the people. Join us at 9 pm ET and we’ll cram some baseball down your cramholes!

6:43	Paul Swydan: By the way, we’re taking suggestions for Jeff’s injury tool. Early front runners are the reader-suggested acryonyms HURT Score (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma), or PAIN (Player’s Abiding Injury Number).

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi guys, let’s do this! Sorry if you couldn’t submit questions for awhile, I closed my computer like a dum-dum. But the phone lines are open now!

9:02	Comment From Doo bob Subtracted Performance Runs After Injury Notice (SPRAIN)

9:02	Paul Swydan: That’s a good one. Jeff will be along in a sec, btw.

9:02	Comment From Roster Rooster How about F-HIM (Forecaster of Hidden Injury Metric)

9:02	Paul Swydan: Less PC, but I still like it.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Nice

9:03	Comment From Pork Sale Who would you rather have ROS in a standard non keeper. Profar or Puig. Basically, who would you have ranked higher if we were drafting today.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Profar, I would expect Texas to finally get it together and find room. Puig needs injuries (or trades) to happen for PT

9:05	Paul Swydan: Well, it all comes down to playing time, does it not? It seems like both will have cases to stay. Jon Daniels finally relented. Perhaps Kinsler being on the DL will be the hammer Daniels needs to boot him out to the outfield, where Nelson Cruz is once again playing subpar defense.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I would say Profar, btw.

9:05	Comment From Metsamorphosis HanRam RoS, great or awsome?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I’ll say merely great. And even that is optimistic to me.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Meh

9:06	Comment From Harmon Killebrews Base-Running Protective Glove Please take a crack at ranking ROS for: Puig, Myers, Rendon and Prufor.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Profar, Myers, Rendon, Puig

9:07	Paul Swydan: But I like all four.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Profar, Puig, Rendon, Myers.

9:07	Comment From Graham Would you trade Ortiz/BJ Upton/Weeks for M. Carpenter/Markakis/Headley in OBP/SLG/hits/runs/HR/SB league (I know it’s a stupid format)? Thanks

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: In a heart beat.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Yup. Ortiz the only one you’d worry about missing.

9:08	Comment From AJT HURT sounds better. I don’t know why, it just does.

9:08	Comment From Taylor H. MiniMalized Mashing Because Of Pain… MMMBOP

9:08	Paul Swydan: Now that’s funny.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: That it is.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I think that’s enough for a poll, btw. Give me a sec.

9:09	Comment From Mike Jeff: what’s the best resource for learning to use databases?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think I like HURT and MMMBOP the best.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I really don’t know. I followed Colin Wyers 2 part series (at the hardball times) and learned the rest on my own (never took a class). I got a basic understanding and then ask others or google works pretty good. It may seem tough at first, but Bradley W. has caught on.

9:11	Comment From zorzo if you have a chance to call something MMMBOP you have to take it

9:11	Paul Swydan: And if Jeff doesn’t know, I really don’t know, because I always ask him when I have a question.

9:11	Comment From Jaker Gyorko or Rendon? Deep mixed OPS league.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Gyorko. Already established, and he even hit cleanup last night. Good times.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Keeper, Rendon, Redraft Gyorko

9:12	Comment From Dylan If the Yankees were having the season the Cardinals are having would the media ever shut up about them?

9:13	Paul Swydan: They’re not exactly shy about their praise of the Cardinals either.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: The media will never shut up about the Yankees, ever.

9:13	Comment From Dylan Could Jaime Garcia be traded in the offseason? The Cardinals have so much pitching.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: No one would touch him with his injury.

9:14	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure that there’s going to be a robust market for a guy with a bum shoulder. The more likely scenario is that he gets dealt once he’s ready to get back on the mound. If he gets back on the mound.

9:14	Paul Swydan: And for the record, he’s got no one to blame but himself. He was given two opinions last winter that he needed surgery, and decided to seek a third opinion. This has been coming for awhile.

9:14	Comment From Steven Do my eyes deceive me, or was Anthony Rizzo not chosen in the franchise draft?

9:14	Comment From Steven Snubs from the franchise draft? Off the top of my head… Segura, Rizzo, Goldschmidt, Castro, Bundy, J. Zimm

9:15	Paul Swydan: I don’t think Zimmermann is a snub, and Bundy is a question mark while he’s hurt, but the others certainly deserved consideration.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Tough to take a 1B, but Rizzo and Gold where the only big glaring omissions.

9:15	Comment From Puig The reason you haven’t seen Puig connected to PEDs is that his athleticism is so great that it can’t be enhanced. #Puig2013ROY&MVP&CY

9:16	Paul Swydan: I think Puig is the clear frontrunner for the Cy Young Award.

9:17	Comment From MehGatron Dinner and wine with Vin Scully or taking a bat to Hawk Harrelson’s car?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Scully. I’m pretty big on not going to jail. It’s a life goal, you might say.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Vin Scully, someone else will destroy Hawk’s car anyway.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Ha

9:18	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Should I offer Gattis and D. Brown for Joe Mauer in obp league?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Yeah, of course.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you would get him. Ride the hot hands.

9:19	Paul Swydan: In an OBP league, I can’t imagine either of those guys being all that valuable.

9:19	Comment From Parmesan Trees Sell high on Donaldson?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I would hold on for one more day.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: yea, but I can see people being leary of him.

9:20	Paul Swydan: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIbXvaE39wM

9:20	Comment From Fuzz Aldrin Does Coco Crisp make his first ASG appearance?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I’ll be pretty surprised if this happens. He’s not going to get voted in, and Leyland selecting him seems like a stretch.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: it will be close, I could see Cespedes getting picked.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Or Donaldson.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well OK, I guess Donaldson would make 4 AL 3Bs. So maybe not him. But Machado could play SS, and Miggy could play 1B…

9:22	Comment From JAson If you had Kipnis to fill 2b, would you trade cano for Kershaw

9:22	Paul Swydan: No, but then I’m not big on Kipnis. Although I do love me some Kershaw.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Only in a re-draft and only if I need pitching.

9:23	Comment From The Oberamtmann Do you think the biogenesis thing is legit? Or an MLB witchhunt to justify someone’s ego?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Not justify someone’s ego, get revenge on Braun. The other players are simply collateral damage.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I will never understand what the main MLB heads are thinking, ever.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Wow, LeBron just said Paul Pierce was his biggest rival. I feel so proud by that statement.

9:24	Comment From yo mama whose the oddman out. Niese, skaggs, wacha, kendrick, gausman

9:25	Paul Swydan: Redraft, one of the rookies – probably Skaggs, because he has most competition for PT. In keeper, Kendrick.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Niese for this season, he is a mess, but may end up with the a decent amount of innings.

9:25	Comment From Jaack Can we start a Jamey Carroll all star campaign? I’m sure we have enough tech savvy readers to get him in.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Anyone got a link to all the players link in the report. I can only find partial lists.

9:26	Paul Swydan: You can start it, but no one is going to successfully finish it. Mauer and Perkins two pretty solid picks there.

9:26	Paul Swydan: http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/9301536/major-league-baseball-suspend-20-players-including-alex-rodriguez-ryan-braun-part-miami-investigation

9:27	Paul Swydan: I guess that’s only 15 names.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: not all 20 are listed in it, from what I can tell

9:27	Comment From Chris Do you have any predictions for the Yankee outfield? An Overbay/Wells platoon once Grandy returns?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I think Mr. T said it best: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, I could just see them stick with Wells.

9:28	Paul Swydan: If you read my Fortnight article today – and if you did, you were apparently the only one – I noted that Wells has been dog doo lately: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fortnight-6413/

9:29	Comment From Duder MacGruder If you could pick, would you rather have: (a) a Cy Young Award, or (b) Nobel Prize in Literature. Basically, do you want to be in the company of Jim Lonborg or Jean-Paul Sartre?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Cy Young, easy.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Probably the latter. I couldn’t conceive of myself being deserving of either, but at least the latter is in the realm of possibility.

9:30	Comment From Graham I believe someone said that some of the Biogenesis names are code names, and ESPN doesn’t know the real names yet.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Also this.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: OK

9:30	Comment From Steve I’d like to spend a fortnight with you Paul 🙂

9:31	Paul Swydan: Hi-yo! Right back at ya.

9:31	Comment From Ryan Has Mike Carp made any mechanical adjustments, changes in approach, etc. that make his recent success at all sustainable???

9:32	Paul Swydan: I haven’t watched him closely enough in previous seasons to answer that accurately, but my feeling is that not much has changed for the better in terms of his approach. He has a .382 BABIP and is striking out more than ever.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: None. a +.380 BABIP with a 11% LD rate. totally sustainable.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Having said that, Carp is effective in certain situations, and the Red Sox have done a good job of using him ONLY in those situations.

9:32	Comment From Guest Nelson Cruz with another error

9:33	Paul Swydan: Shocking.

9:33	Paul Swydan: #KinslerForRightField

9:33	Comment From Four Score and a Fortnight Ago Has anyone actually read George Will’s Men at Work?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: I saw him against KC, he is rough out there. Maybe worse than Francoeur.

9:34	Paul Swydan: I have not read it, nor anything by George Will. I’ve never understood his popularity.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I own it, got it in a library sale, havent read it yet.

9:34	Comment From Sgt. Pepper The union would sooner burn down every stadium in the league before allowing a player to be suspended without a positive test right?

9:35	Paul Swydan: You would think so. I’d be surprised if any of these double suspensions hold up in arbitration. MLB is making up the rules as they go, and that usually doesn’t play well with any sort of objective party.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: No, they have to fight it to the nails. A lot of money is at stake.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Wait a minute, a player on Walt Weiss’ team doesn’t know the rules? SHOCKING!!!

9:36	Paul Swydan: Edgmer Escalona just balked in a run with the fake to third fake to first move. What a moron.

9:36	Paul Swydan: The go-ahead run, I might add.

9:36	Comment From Kevin What’s the deal with Al Alburquerque? When do we see him back? Could he eventually work his way into a closer role with someone? Reminds me of Ernesto Frieri.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: He needs to stay in the minors for the annual minor league name bracket.

9:37	Paul Swydan: The deal SEEMS to be that Jim Leyland straight up doesn’t care for him or Bryan Villareal. Because the guys they have called up in their stead are simply not as talented. To your latter question, I will say yes.

9:37	Comment From guest… How many questions do you guys have?? I posted several and none were answered

9:37	Paul Swydan: We’re answering about 50% right now. Which is high. We have less questions in normal in the queue tonight because I unwittingly cut off questions for two hours like a moron.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul is in charge of the questions. I blame him.

9:37	Comment From Jaker When do we start talking about Gregorious’ offensive numbers? Color me impressed. BABIP will regress a bit but his batted ball profile is looking fantastic.

9:38	Paul Swydan: We can start right now!

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I am a little worried about the plate discipline.

9:40	Paul Swydan: A little bit, yeah. But overall it seems a lot better than the scouting reports suggested. Mike Newman was bullish on that trade for the Dbacks, and he is looking more right than wrong at this point.

9:40	Comment From Pork Sale How can one not understand an author’s popularity if they haven’t read any of said author”s work?

9:40	Paul Swydan: What I should have said is that I’ve never read any of his books. I’ve read columns he’s written, and seen him speak on TV, etc.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:41	Paul Swydan: But yes, that was a very fair comment.

9:41	Comment From Jaack The union burning down the stadiums sounds like something out of industrial revolution Britain. You know, luddites and stuff.

9:41	Paul Swydan: Or the Watts riots.

9:41	Comment From Chris Do you think a manager of a major league team spends time teaching a player the rules? In theory I would like to think this happens, but I just assume it does not.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I figured the 3rd to 1st would have been gone over since it was a huge change.

9:42	Paul Swydan: It may not be the manager who does it, but he should certainly be delegating rules briefings to coaches or other staffers. It’s his responsibility to make sure the players know, put it that way.

9:42	Paul Swydan: And yes, this was a huge change in the rules.

9:43	Comment From guest in your humble opinions, which ballpark gives up the cheapest-feeling HRs?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Yankee Stadium.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Wrigley when the wind is blowing out.

9:43	Comment From Gabe Does anybody at Fangraphs play OOTP (Out of the Park Baseball)? If not, you should! Great game.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I know Brandon Warne does. I don’t. Sorry.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I love it, but too addictive. I don’t have the hours it would suck out of my life.

9:44	Comment From Men w/o Hats You can dance if you want to

9:44	Paul Swydan: Can I leave my friends behind? Because if my friends don’t dance, then they’re no friends of mine.

9:45	Comment From Jaack I don’t understand Stephenie Meyer’s popularity and I refuse to read any of her books.

9:45	Comment From Gabe I’ve read “Men at Work” (and actually wrote an essay about it for a college class on baseball). It’s really nothing special.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Boom. Jaack and Gabe with separate arguments that both absolve me of reading George Will’s books!

9:46	Comment From Gabe Does Houston really want to pull off the old draft-a-borderline-first-overall-pick-so-they-can-spend-money-in-later-rounds gambit for the second year in a row? Gray and Appel are pretty tantalizing picks…

9:47	Paul Swydan: It strikes me as a little odd as well, especially because what they need most is top shelf pitching. If Appel is as good as people say, he could be ready to go in 2015.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see why they make take the hitter with pitcher health concerns.

9:48	Comment From Jason Greinke and/or Hamels, should I be worried?

9:48	Paul Swydan: This one’s for Jeff.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I did see the head of Astro scouting watching Gray a couple of weeks ago.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Both seem to be aging (getting worse). Nothing I have seen points to an injury.

9:49	Comment From Vernon Wells I’ll forgive all the bad things you guys have said about me IF you write my a funny haiku, right NOW

9:49	Paul Swydan: I think you’re in the wrong chat, Vernon. Try a NotGraphs chat for haikus.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t need forgiveness, I need a fantasy league member to quit offering you for Altuve in one of my leagues.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Haha

9:50	Comment From Kevin Would you prefer Kyle Zimmer long term to Trevor Bauer? Do you think Bauer is going to have HR problems? (On top of the control problems, clearly)

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Bauer >> Zimmer. At least he has been effective in AAA and majors. Zimmer is struggling in the minors right now.

9:51	Paul Swydan: It’s not really a fair question at this point. I would say Zimmer, but Zimmer hasn’t experienced much failure yet. Bauer has, so he looks like the worse prospect. Not sure, sorry.

9:52	Comment From Dr. Spaceman Is Matt Carpenter the best second baseman in baseball right now, and can he keep it up? His BABIPs high, but it’s been pretty high throughout his career…

9:52	Paul Swydan: Did Robinson Cano die and nobody told me?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:53	Comment From Kevin How long until Rutledge is back?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Probably a month or so.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea.

9:53	Comment From Tim Try 2014. Keith Law says Appel could pitch this season if he had to

9:53	Paul Swydan: Right, well I was being conservative. Astros would have little reason to rush Appel.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably. I think Stanek could in a bullen also after seeing him live this weekend. Stanek seems a bit like Max Scherzer.

9:54	Comment From Jaack Speaking of NotGraphs chats, go bully Cistulli into doing them more often. Please. But don’t say please to him.

9:54	Paul Swydan: I would never say please to Carson.

9:54	Comment From Jose Altuve Never let me go Jeff. I hit for average and can fit in your pocket.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: and it is a AL only league and I need a MI.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Just like Tom Haverford’s tiny racist kangaroo!

9:56	Comment From Scott How do you think Rondon will do if he becomes Detroit’s next closer?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Not well enough to hold the job for any extended period of time.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Not this year for sure.

9:56	Comment From WuShock Jeff, were you surprised to see Gene Stephenson fired?

9:56	Comment From Bill C Do you ever get sorta depressed (but not seriously) because of the failure of your fantasy team?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Whoops, sorry Jeff.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Not one bit, heard through the grapevine it was in the work.

9:57	Paul Swydan: I just read that Stephenson story that Rany posted to Twitter. He sounds like a great guy.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: was great, lost it over the last few years.

9:57	Paul Swydan: And yes, my fantasy team causes mood swings. Big whoop, want to fight about it?