FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/4/14

by Paul Swydan

June 4, 2014

5:33

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody. Different night this week, sorry if that’s a bother for you. But same time, 9 pm ET! Jeff and I will both be here to cram some baseball into your baseball holes. So crack open a Sam Summer, or whatever snooty beer you kids are drinking these days, and hit us with a question or six. See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this! Sorry for the one minute delay, I was just reading an upcoming Hardball Times post. You guys and gals are all reading THT every day, right? Right, I knew you were.

9:01	Comment From Alex IT’S 9 PM!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Yes yes, sorry Alex.

9:02	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw This MUST be Shared! Yesterday “Hawk” Harelson said this “No Shortstop in the league, including Troy Tulowitzky, has had a better season than Alexei, both on offense and defense”. Has he lost all credibility of what comes out of his mouth?

9:02	Paul Swydan: 95%. He has to say something intelligent every now and then or even his bosses would tire of him. But he’s incredibly biased, we already knew that.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: He hasn’t had nay for years.

9:03	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw Are you guys (at FG) going to bring back Prospect Chats? That was my favorite chat..

9:03	Paul Swydan: Not sure, but I’ll put this here so that everyone can see it.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea

9:04	Comment From Jimbo Which INDIVIDUAL tool is better, Hamiltons Speed or Giancarlos power? (they are both 80, but which one is a cut above the other)

9:04	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Stanton’s, because I foresee it aging better.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Hamilton, I have seen Stanton power, no Hamilton speed.

9:04	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!!!

9:04	Comment From Jimbo If you could watch a game where 1 pitcher faced 1 hitter for 27 outs.. Which hitter/pitcher combo would you choose? Present and All-Time.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Present Felix vs Cabrera.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I would love to Randy Johnson vs Babe Ruth

9:05	Paul Swydan: All-time is easy – Pedro vs. Manny

9:05	Paul Swydan: Felix vs Miggy is pretty good. Let’s go with that.

9:06	Comment From JV What are the chances no team wins more than 90 games this season?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: .0001%

9:06	Paul Swydan: I’ll say the chances of that are pretty low. SF, LA, DET, OAK and ANA all seem like pretty good bets to top that number.

9:07	Comment From Lefty In head to head dynasty pts league. Polanco/Kipnis or Bruce/Darvish? If it helps I am giving Kipnis and am very much in contention for ’14.

9:07	Paul Swydan: If you’re going for it, OK, but I think longterm the Polanco/Kipnis combo is probably better.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:07	Comment From BoomBoom So at this point ROS Kluber or Price? My Crush for his Kluber/Price + Bruce is very solid yeah? Never ask for help but can’t decide on this one.

9:08	Paul Swydan: I think this one depends on team needs. It’s pretty even, though I just really am not a big fan of Jay Bruce, which is giving me pause.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Shallow league no, but if it is a deep league I would take the 2 players.

9:09	Comment From Jacks colon Should JBJ fear Mookie?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Everyone should fear Mookie.

9:09	Paul Swydan: I think he’s probably already fearing him. JBJ has another month to prove he’s better than a fourth outfielder, which given his defense he could be for a very long time.

9:10	Comment From Edge O Lowrie is a free agent this winter. Do the A’s 1) resign to play SS so Russell gets more experience 2) resign him to fill the hole at 2B and give Russell the SS job or 3) is he playing for NYY, Tor, Atl, Col, Bal etc that have a 2B/SS need?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Either 2 or 3. 1 would not be an option for me.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: #3

9:11	Comment From Nick Thoughts on the Sox this year? They only trail Detroit by 4 games and Jose Abreu seems to hit a lot of home runs. Plus Hawk says this team has The Will To Win this year.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is perfect backup on a team loaded with money.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think they will probably still sell off at some point. De Aza and Dunn, in particular.

9:12	Comment From Edge O Reddick on the DL, any chance Gentry keeps the everyday job? Career OBP is 350ish with an ok BB rate, the kind of guy Beane likes.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think they have enough fire power right now.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: He could, also I see Beane making a move. He always does.

9:13	Paul Swydan: He has an 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Not someone I want playing every day, as much as I do like Gentry.

9:13	Comment From Edge O Can Nathan be fixed? Tigers run last year was hampered by their closer struggles all year. So far more of the same.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Isn’t Nathan’s velo still down?

9:14	Paul Swydan: He already has more meltdowns than last year, and his velo is down. 1 mph on 4-seam, 2 mph on 2-seam. He needs to learn how to pitch at that level.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Problem is that he has less room for experimentation, given his job description.

9:14	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Whoever does the DraftStreet posts for Rotographs needs a raise.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: 91 for a releiver won’t cut it.

9:14	Paul Swydan: I’ll let Eno know!

9:15	Comment From Ken Are the Giants really for real? Call me crazy, but getting two thirds of your runs with two outs smacks of luck.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Morse not being a black hole of suck helps.

9:15	Paul Swydan: I think they stay in the race all season, provided that Posey’s back doesn’t become a bigger problem than it already is.

9:15	Comment From Trouts OKAY…for now What are your thoughts on Hosmer? 12 team roto dynasty trade Shields and Hos for Pujols and D. Gordon? In 3rd only 5 points back with just 3 points in SB’s. Projected 15 over my starts cap already. Or just do Shields for Dee? Thanks.

9:16	Paul Swydan: I approve of this trade. I don’t think much of Hosmer.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Do the trade, Hosmer is mess, needs to quit swinging at balls in the dirt.

9:17	Comment From Slow Mobius Lonnie Chisenhall won’t keep up his .417 BABIP, but do you think he is finally ready to be an everyday major leaguer?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Truthfully, I don’t care, That man as burned me too many times.

9:18

Paul Swydan: The plate discipline and ISO are exactly the same, so I am going to say it’s unlikely he’s for real. But, as Dan Szymborski likes to point, things like BABIP are stickier in-season, so he may not come all the way back to a .300 BABIP, and if he rocks a .350 BABIP all year he’ll probably be pretty valuable.

9:19	Comment From Lenard My girlfriend just saw that this chat was “After Dark” and began questioning what I was up to. First time the answer of “Baseball!” has been a relief for her.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Putting this quote on my tombstone.

9:20	Comment From Guest John Farrell about (not) playing Nava: “I fully recognize that consistent opportunity is needed but yet we’ve had some other guys that have either maintained their performance or have stepped up and they’ve taken some of those at-bats away.”

9:20	Paul Swydan: John Farrell would make a good politician.

9:20	Comment From Edge O Towers appears to be “dead man walking” so let’s not count him. Who is the first GM fired? Who should be the first but will hold on?

9:20	Comment From Pork Sale Daily leagues for money aren’t legal in Louisiana? What the hell?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Louisiana – sucking the life out of us since forever. Should be first – Jack Z Will be first (besides Towers) – Josh Byrnes?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Dayton should have been done years ago. I actually think Towers is done.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Oh, ya, Dayton too.

9:22	Comment From Dan Shaughnessy When will you admit these Red Sox just aren’t very good?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Never Dan.

9:23	Paul Swydan: If you need me to admit something like that, I sort of feel bad for you. The Sox just have very little depth right now.

9:23	Comment From JV Garrett Richards or Drew Hutchison ROS?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Hutchison, because I still don’t buy Richards.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Ohhhh……Richards based on home park, but very close.

9:23	Comment From Tony G. Am I crazy to think that Brad Boxberger has the stuff to be a closer, potentially sooner rather than later?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Not crazy, I’m sure that is what the Rays were thinking when they acquired him.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: All depends if they turn him into a setup man to keep his salary down.

9:24	Comment From Jake Time to drop Jesse Chavez?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Not based on this start, no. Unless he gets crushed in this inning or next. Right now his numbers are acceptable for tonight.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on depth of league. AL no way.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not as high on him as Eno is.

9:26	Comment From Andy Traded my Posey for his Rizzo and Rosario in an OBP keeper. Did I embarrass myself?

9:27	Paul Swydan: The OBP makes it hard to love getting Rosario, but no, I don’t think you embarrassed yourself.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not at all.

9:28

Comment From Stephen
Hey Paul, thanks for answering questions tonight. So why do some prospects seem to ride the promotion roller-coaster more so than others that either always climb or just fall off? My question is related to Kaleb Cowart and his progress over the last three years. And Stone Ruination is what I will be drinking.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Hey, Jeff is here too!

9:28	Paul Swydan: I think a lot of this depends on the team. Each team does its promotions a little differently.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: GM are a weird lot. Each does thing are their own.

9:29

Comment From Derek
What is it about Kendrys Morales that makes people think he’s so bad at first base. Serious question. I have never seen Kendrys Morales play, so I have no frame of reference here. UZR and DRS don’t seem to hate him as much as people do. I know they aren’t exact and it’s a bit of a SSS. No range? Can’t pick bad throws? Bad foot work? Mental mistakes?

9:30	Paul Swydan: No range. It took him a long time to come back from his ankle injury.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he will last about 1 day after draft. He is OK on defense, but there is a reason no one gave him a multi-year deal this off-season.

9:31	Comment From Baker Phil Hughes has solid swinging strike rate, great K-BB% & good SIERA. You buying as legit improvement, & would you consider him now a top 40 SP?

9:32	Paul Swydan: It might be legit improvement, but no, I wouldn’t peg him as a top 40 SP at this moment. Lot of mediocre/crappy numbers in his resume, and a couple of good months aren’t going to outweigh that.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure on ranking, but I wrote him up for Rotowire today. He is throwing strikes at Bartolo Colon rate and his HR rate is close to his non-Yankee stadium rate.

9:33	Comment From Slow Mobius Why would the Cleveland Browns draft Johnny Manziel if he couldn’t even command the rain to stop on the night he’s supposed to throw out the first pitch?

9:33	Paul Swydan: CUT HIM!

9:33	Comment From Alex Don Zimmer passed away

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: RIP

9:33	Paul Swydan: I am just seeing this now on Twitter. Very sad. He’s a lifelong baseball man, and it’s a shame that the first thing people think of is him charging Pedro.

9:34	Comment From Jobas mom Joba closing in Detroit soon? Can his brain handle the pressure of closing?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Detroit can’t catch a break with closers, I see them trading for one from a non-contender.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Either him or Alburquerque, seems like.

9:35	Comment From Alex Is this a fantasy friendly chat? I always forget. In case it is, I sent someone a Luis Sardinas and Erik Johnson (mine) for Nick Franklin trade offer. Fair?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Sure. Fair.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing wrong there.

9:36	Comment From Pork Sale Does Betances close this year?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I’ll say not unless Robertson gets hurt. Betances has been great, but Robertson has been pretty great for a few years himself.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: /delete my writing What Paul typed

9:37	Comment From Brad !st thing I think of Zimmer is Spaceman Lee bad mouthing him in his book that I read as a kid

9:37	Paul Swydan: Hey, Brad might be as old as we are. I like this Brad.

9:37	Comment From Yan Should we sell high on Brantley?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yes. Yes you should.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: BRB

9:38	Comment From DelusionalYankeesFan Please tell me the Jays aren’t for real.

9:39	Paul Swydan: See, but I can’t tell you that. They needed two more good SPs, and Hutchison and Stroman have the chance to be them, and Buehrle is on an absolute roll. They’re not bonafide favorites, but this isn’t a stone cold fluke either. They’ll hang around.

9:39	Comment From Brad I like you guys too. Love mash report and started to venture into hardball times.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Thanks Brad!

9:40	Comment From Rated Rookie Doolittle: great name, greater fastball.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Agree. Horrible beard though. I’m just embarrassed for him in that thing.

9:40	Comment From Rated Rookie I’ll second the motion for a prospects chat.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Noted!

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: ok

9:40

Comment From Stephen
Sorry about leaving out Jeff, as a follow up to the both since I have a man crush on Cowart for some reason. What hope does he have, has shown solid defense and good speed, but the bat seems to be hit and miss, is it just because he is trying to be a switch hitter, should he just focus on one side or just a bad streak after a really awesome start?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I posted this because he said sorry to Jeff. I really am not familiar enough with Cowart to assuage you one way or the other.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Generally, I hate switch hitters. hitting from one side is hard enough.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Jeff also hates fun of all forms though – rollercoasters, ice cream cones, etc. So, you know.

9:42	Comment From Brad speaking of hardball times, what did you think about the article about woman being in major leagues. I just don’t see it ever happening, but all the comments seemed to agree with author.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think eventually we will see a woman break through. I don’t think it will necessarily come in the next 5-10 years, but I believe it will happen in my lifetime.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t see it, and the only way would be a knuckle baller.

9:43	Comment From DelusionalYankeesFan “They’ll hang around.” It wasn’t supposed to be this way…

9:43	Paul Swydan: Sorry DYF. At least the Rays suck!

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Only a 4 team race.

9:44	Comment From Brad do teams scout umpires very thoroughly?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Can’t speak to this with any authority, but they certainly should be.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: They scout them, I am not sure how thoroughly.

9:46	Comment From Neal Huntington Hey Gregory, pack your bags for Pittsbu–nevermind, next week. Maybe.

9:46	Paul Swydan: This incident is not helping their reputation as a bunch of cheapskates, but it might not be their fault. Credit to his agent if he leaked the story on purpose to put heat on the team.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I need him up in one league, I have been getting decimated in one league (Myers, Fielder, Trumbo).

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yikes! Makes my Votto and Nate Jones combo seem tame by comparison.

9:47	Comment From Yan Do you believe that Matt Kemp will turn it around at some point? So many holes in his swing right now.

9:47	Paul Swydan: I have less faith in this by the day.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Kemp is done, should just sit it out.

9:48	Comment From Jacks colon With Taveras and the Astro boys already up, who else should we expect to be up soon,? (Not counting Polanco)

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Myers from Minnesota.

9:48	Paul Swydan: He means Meyer. Eddie Butler is coming up Friday for the Rockies.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Correct Paul

9:49	Comment From stonepie thoughts on oswaldo arcia?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Like the raw power, not much else.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Trendig towards 1-2 win player.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Trending.

9:50	Comment From Chatter would you trade CarGo for Oscar Taveras in a re-draft mixer??

9:50	Paul Swydan: No, I would hang onto CarGo and hope for a more established return.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Close, go with CarGo

9:51	Comment From Ken Can you think of any reason why the A’s wouldn’t trade Johnson for the 39th pick? Are they that close to the league salary minimum?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: None, none at all

9:52	Paul Swydan: My guess is that they realized they would spend more trying to replace Johnson than they would get in the draft bonus. Not sure if I agree with that sentiment, but that would be my guess for why they didn’t do it.

9:52	Comment From Chatter thanks for answering questions guys: what might we expect from Eddie Butler? worth a fourth or fifth rotation spot in a mixer??

9:53	Paul Swydan: I picked him up to hold. His strikeouts have been down enough that I was a little surprised that they promoted him at this time. Maybe they think he’s bored.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure on Butler, but picked him up in one league. I am kind of playing wait and see, but don’t want to miss out.

9:54	Comment From Rated Rookie In a keep-forever league, would Polanco or Taveras be enough to offer for Wacha? If not, what sweeteners need to be added?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: They would be more than enough. I would want both over Wacha.

9:55	Paul Swydan: I probably wouldn’t give up Wacha for either if I was contending this year, but I might if you threw in someone like Soriano or Alex Rios – a player having a good year but who doesn’t figure to be good for much longer. If I wasn’t contending though, I would do either for Wacha.

9:55	Comment From FeatherWearer Doctor Smooooooooth, smoothed one into center field giving the Indians a 1-0 lead heading into the second inning.. Is “Doctor Smooth” the best handle you can think of for Michael Brantley?.

9:55	Paul Swydan: It is, in the sense that I never thought Michael Brantley would be nickname worthy.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: It is better than anything I can think of.

9:56	Comment From Lenard Has the rest of Fangraphs stopped working for anyone else?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Not sure what you mean, Lenard.

9:56	Comment From Careless Whisperer People still seem to underrate Donaldson. Think Hosmer and Stroman or Bauer is enough to get him in a dynasty league?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: It did seem so for a bit.

9:57	Paul Swydan: It shouldn’t be, but if you can do it, then do it. Also, he’s leading the AL in 3B votes by a not insignificant margin. I think people are catching on.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: You can try, may take all three. Some one stated the other day he may be the #1 3B drafted in 2015

9:57	Comment From Gila Monster Fangraphs was down for like 20 minutes for me too.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Oh, yeah, it was for me too. I took “not working” in a different way. Sorry.

9:58	Comment From Rated Rookie Hosmer’s up to bat. Just in case you wanted to see a groundball out.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Why don’t you just punch Jeff in the blueberries while you’re at it?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: He will swing at a couple pitches in the dirt.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Sadly, the wife has the remote right now. No baseball.

9:59	Comment From RWG thoughts on RDLR?? does he stick in the rotation?

9:59	Paul Swydan: For now. We’ll see. Lot of options, so his margin for error isn’t high.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure of the stickiness, but I have loved him for a while.