FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/22/14

by Paul Swydan

July 22, 2014

5:27	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to cram as much baseball as we can cram into your cramholes. Until then, fill up the queue! See you soon!

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hey guys, let’s do this thing.

9:01	Comment From Cobbieguy Conventional wisdom says Brock Holt won’t be a first ballot hall of famer; however, what can his value be going forward? Ben Zobrist lite with less power?

9:01	Paul Swydan: Ben Zobrist lite with less power is a utility player, which is what Holt really is.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: I am just not buying to his season. Zobrist without the power and a little worse defender.

9:02	Comment From Ceej Is Byron Buxton injury prone similar to someone like Ellsbury and Harper where it just keeps happening but he isn’t necessarily brittle and more fluky?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I think it’s wayyyyyy too early to know this, but maybe Jeff has an inkling?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: No way to know right now, just no way.

9:03	Comment From Jimmers Thoughts on Chase Headley to NY (specifically Yankee Stadium)?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I like it. As Petriello said, the Padres probably should have traded him awhile ago, but at least he landed in a good situation.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe a couple more HR’s this season. Only half the games at home and about 1/3 of a season.

9:04

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
We are seeing big variations in Defensive stats, and we all know they are NOT an exact science. Do you think we are putting too much weight in Defensive Values? I mean Alex Gordon has been worth more on Defence than Victor Martinez has been worth on Offense (if you weigh them equally, and he has been awesome).. Like Gordon has 206 PO and Victor has 360 PA?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I do not think we are putting too much weight on defensive values, no.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Weight is not the issue and I believe defensive numbers will only get better and more people are looking at the games.

9:06	Comment From DistinguishedWreck Please give your thoughts on the demise of NotGraphs and Carson Cistulli being revealed as inherently evil.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I am a little saddened by its passing and Carson is evil no matter what.

9:07

Paul Swydan: I think Carson was revealed as inherently evil a looooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnngggggggggg time ago.

Also, I think that the writers of NotGraphs will find their talents applied elsewhere in the FanGraphs family of blogs.

Beyond that, I don’t want to speak for Carson. I’m certain that he will discuss it more when he feels the time is right.

9:08	Comment From Dave There was an article on SI discussing because of declining offensive numbers (mainly lefties) if the shift should be banned. Thats never gunna happen right?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I would certainly hope not.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Not going to happen any time soon.

9:09	Comment From Stephen If i’m “giving up” on Verlander, would trading him for Chris Archer be acceptable?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Trading for Chris Archer would be acceptable either way.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so.

9:09	Comment From Stephen What do you think of Matt Cain ROS? Injury spooks me.

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’ll let Jeff field this one.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like it, but it will really depend on how the Giants are doing. If close with the Dodgers or wild card, I could see him come back too early (Buchholz last season). I think he will need a while though.

9:11	Comment From Hannah Montana I’m seriously having a bad day. Play me a Bieber song.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I just tried to think of one, and couldn’t come up with anything.

9:11	Comment From Los How do you feel now that Stephen Drew is leading the Red Sox second half surge? [ducks]

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Racing my Lamborghini?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Why I oughta…..

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I wish he would do something, I need some production from him in an AL only league.

9:12	Comment From Miles Should I keep Josh Beckett or get rid of him in anticipation of his ERA regressing to his FIP? Also, his hip sounds like it really hurts.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I’d have no problem dropping him.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Stay away with the hip, I think LA is seeing if he can be productive or do they need to get another pitcher for the stretch.

9:13

Comment From Stephen
My league has a unique rule in that any player picked off the waiver wire may be kept in the 12th round for next year. Normally this makes sense for finding “diamonds in the rough”, but we’ve had some issues recently with high level players being dropped (like Pujols last year when he got injured) and teams scrambling to pick him up to keep because of the incredible value. Have any opinions on how we can adjust this? Its a 12 team mix, keep 5 or 3 if one is a 1st rounder.

9:14	Paul Swydan: First of all, I like this rule a lot. Second of all, if you really think it’s that big of a problem, and I would say that picking up Pujols doesn’t qualify as the system getting broken, then I would simply move the round up to the 9th or 10th.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: We always have dropped players keep their previous year’s draft level.

9:15	Comment From Moneyballer Will the Mets make a deadline move, and if so, what?

9:15	Paul Swydan: It looks like Colon will be on the block, as he should be.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see Colon or Murphy get traded.

9:16	Comment From fats What were your thoughts on Stroman when he came up?

9:17

Paul Swydan: That they should have put him in the rotation immediately. You do the reliever trick when you have five good SPs, which Toronto did not have since Happ and McGowan were part of the mix.

Also, given Stroman’s splits as a reliever and starter, I feel confident in saying that I was right in this instance.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: He has some nasty stuff. I like him.

9:17	Comment From Matt Is Garrett Richards due for a rude awakening, or have the Angels found their new ace of the future? I think he should’ve easily made the All-Star team, but now I’m wondering if he’ll ever get back to that level in future years.

9:18	Paul Swydan: I think something in between. I don’t think he’s an ace long-term, but he is a solid building block for them.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: #2 to #3 starter

9:18	Comment From based is it just me or have nesn broadcasts started to get completely insufferable?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I’m just glad Don Orsillo is back.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t know.

9:19	Comment From Jonah Is Corey Kluber getting unlucky with his .325 BABIP or will that always be an unfortunate part of the equation with him?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Seems like this is part of the program, which given his not superb fastball, makes some sense.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: The BABIP isn’t totally out of whack. Maybe if Cabrera wasn’t his SS, it would be better.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Zing!

9:20	Comment From Jordan dynasty league, who intrigues you more short and long term in this group of mi’s, la stella, alcantara, miller, owings, bogaerts. Thanks.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Miller and (duh) Bogaerts at shortstop. Probably only Alcantara is another intriguing middle infielder, but I don’t think he’ll log much time at shortstop.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Short term: Miller, Long term Bogaerts.

9:21	Comment From Brad How are you guys doing in your fantasy leagues this year?

9:22	Paul Swydan: 3rd of 12 in the FG staff Ottoneu league, 4th of 12 in my home Yahoo! 5×5 league, 12th of 20 in my Scoresheet league.

9:22	Paul Swydan: My Scoresheet team had Santana, Sandoval, Miller and Molina all basically put up an 0-fer for the first half. Painful.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Not good, one team is the DL team (Fielder, Latos, Myers, Trumbo) Another one is DL and shitty players. I am fighting for first in a AL only and was only 1.5 points out first.

9:23

Comment From Brett Gardner
How much power realistically does an agent have as it pertains to the threat that Casey Close will steer clients from Astros. It seems like the market is the market. Seems like he’d breach his fiduciary duty by steering a player away from millions because he’s pissed a deal went wrong.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: 2nd, 7th and 8th

9:24	Paul Swydan: Huh. I just pubbed a question and it got swallowed. It was a good question too. Damnit!

9:24	Comment From just a fool How much will Xander Bogaerts outplay his 21st round keeper status I own him at for the next two years in a 5-keeper, 12-team league?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I believe by a lot. Unless the Sox sign Stephen Drew again.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Then all bets are off.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Especially if they do it in the middle of the season.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure with him going forward, I am souring on him more and more.

9:25	Comment From Michael Please tell me the Red Sox are actually going to trade Peavy.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I wish I could, but every time Farrell has a chance to make him look good, he leaves him an inning or two too long and he gets lambasted again. Pretty odd.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Who would want him?

9:26	Comment From Michael How much more reliable do you think defensive stats will become with the new technology MLBAM is working on? Like, 10 years from now, will half a season’s worth of defensive stats be enough to know who a guy is as a defender?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I think that’s probably a stretch, but I wouldn’t rule it out. 10 years ago we barely had advanced defensive metrics at all.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I think we will have a reference with them. It would be like the advances Pitch F/x gave us.

9:28	Comment From Mike Has anyone been hurt more by the shift then McCann (look he just lost a hit to it as I was typing this)

9:28	Paul Swydan: Chris Davis says hi.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Fielder was also.

9:28	Comment From Scraps 10-team, H2H 5×5 (w/ QS) – keep 6 at round drafted + some inflation. Please rank Wheeler, Wood (both will cost mid-round picks next year), Arrieta, Quintana and Hahn (all last rounders) in terms of keeper value past this season. Wouldn’t keep all 5 but perhaps 1-2. Thanks!

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: which wood?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Assuming you mean Alex Wood…. Quintana, Wood, Arrieta, Wheeler, Hahn

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I am with Paul if Alex, I may even have him #1 with the lower pick. I really like the top 3.

9:29	Comment From brad amaro would want peavy

9:30	Paul Swydan: Yeah I say Quintana because it’s close and he’s a lower round, and also because the Braves seem to like to screw around with Wood.

9:31	Comment From Sad Tulo Owner Is Heyward for Andrus a bad deal if I need AVG, runs, and steals?

9:31	Paul Swydan: No, not given those circumstances.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Not at all, I like it.

9:31	Comment From A My $18 Goldschmidt, Rios, Carpenter for his $29 Stanton, Wainwright, Longoria. (Players other than Goldy and Stanon aren’t keepable). I need pitching. This a good deal or is Goldy untradeable?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: If you need pitching, go for it. Also, I think your haul is better.

9:33	Paul Swydan: A) I’m not that jazzed up about Wainwright’s second half. B) Goldy isn’t untradeable, but he’s better and cheaper than the guy you’d get. C) If you’re desperate, sure.

9:33	Comment From Jason Thoughts on the possibility of Tulo being traded to Seattle in the offseason?

9:34	Paul Swydan: I don’t see it. Even if they put in Miller, Franklin and Walker, I’d still call that not enough for Tulo, and I’m not sure the Mariners have anything of value that they could be reasonably expected to trade.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t see it really, I don’t think Seattle will part with the pieces need to get Tulo.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Obviously, a double play combo of Tulo and Cano would be fun to watch.

9:35	Comment From Michael According to BP stats, in a 5-game sample, Christian Vazquez has been worth about 4.5 WAA/120 in pitch framing alone. He has also allowed 0 SB despite catching John Lackey twice. Am I crazy for wanting the Red Sox to offer him an 8+ year contract right now?

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Offer him the Sal Perez contract.

9:35	Paul Swydan: You are definitely crazy. Offering eight-year deals to catchers is not a thing that any team should ever do.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Unless it’s the Sal Perez contract, I guess.

9:36	Comment From PS isnt swihart widely considered to be better?

9:36	Paul Swydan: That too.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t know.

9:36	Comment From Jared Which Red Sox player is a better pickup for us Tulo owners, Drew or Xander?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Betts?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Xander probably.

9:37	Paul Swydan: At this point, probably Drew. With Victorino back and Middlebrooks close, Xander may start losing some playing time to Holt and/or Middlebrooks. Because, you know, the best way for him to break out of his slump will be to be jerked around in the lineup some more.

9:37	Comment From Michael We have no data on Swihart pitch framing though, no reason to assume that he is Molina+ level …

9:37	Paul Swydan: We also have no data on Vazquez’s pitch framing. Five games is nothing.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: and we can’t assume Vaquez is either after and hand full of games.

9:38	Comment From Steve Does Tulo get traded this offseason? If so, where do you think he fits best? My guess is St Louis

9:38	Paul Swydan: I don’t see it, but if it does happen, I don’t see St. Louis as the destination.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: The yankees could use a short stop.

9:39	Comment From Joe Which of Swihart or Vazquez will end up being the Red Sox long term catcher? Swihart could fetch a bunch in a trade if Vazquez is very good the rest of this year and they commit to him, but by all accounts Swihart is much better.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I think the hope is that they’re BOTH the catcher of the future.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea, Paul?

9:39	Comment From Ceej Rizzo/Sale combined $14 for $25 Stanton? I have Encarnacion

9:40	Paul Swydan: Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, $14 is really cheap for that pair, but it’s hard to pass up Stanton.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Gut says no.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: A $7 Sale and Rizzo are nice.

9:41	Comment From Jim Do you see GMDM moving any parts (shields, butler, gordon) and if do you see any value coming back for any of them ?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I definitely don’t see them trading Gordon. Not sure who would want Butler. I think they’ll keep Shields and make him the QO.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, he thinks the Royals are still in it and is looking to add #year9

9:42	Comment From Bill I almost missed this chat, close call. Do you usually do Tuesdays?

9:42	Paul Swydan: We do usually do Tuesdays.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:42	Comment From Pirate Parrot What should Russell Martin get in free agency? Will the Pirates be able to submit a competitive offer?

9:42	Paul Swydan: A contract? 1-2 years. Pirates will definitely be able to make him a competitive offer.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Martin won’t get that much, teams don’t pay yet for framing.

9:43	Comment From Earworm Jim I got a four pack of heady and Lawson’s Double Sunshine and Super Session that I won’t be able to drink before I leave the county for a month. Anyone want to trade me for something I can cellar

9:44	Paul Swydan: Uh, I think you want Eno’s chat.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: no

9:44	Comment From Moneyballer what do you think about the mets trading for Asdrubal and signing him for a few years?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I think that’s a terrible idea. Sorry.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Stupid.

9:44	Comment From PS do you guys ever read each others chats? (during or after)

9:45	Paul Swydan: I generally try to read Cameron’s chat, but I don’t generally get a chance to consistently read anyone else’s.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Not usually, I really don’t have time. I usually look through KLaws tough.

9:46	Comment From StL Paul Craig for Price who says no

9:46	Paul Swydan: Obviously the Cardinals.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Rays.

9:47	Comment From Bill Better in 2018: Astros or Cubs?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Cubs. Not even close for me.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree, but I think they won’t be next year.

9:48	Comment From Chase How much longer until the Cubs move Baez to the outfield for good?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Probably awhile. No need to do that at present time.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Not anytime soon.

9:50	Comment From Guest I look at the Angels and Royals, and then I think about how pleased (generally) Cubs and Astros fans are with their teams’ approaches vis-a-vis “reckless spenders.” Should fans in Houston and on the northside be so smug?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Neither fan base should be smug, no.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Also FWIW, not sure that the Royals qualify as reckless spenders.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not at all, they each need a lot of pieces to start contending and prospects will fail (see Brandon Wood).

9:52	Comment From Moneyballer Who should the Mets target to fill the HUGE whole at SS?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Starlin Castro.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Obviously they should be going all in for Hanley Ramirez. Barring that, JJ Hardy, or Starlin Castro would also be good fits.

9:53	Paul Swydan: To be clear, I don’t think the Mets are going to find their shortstop of the future at the trade deadline.

9:53

Comment From Guest
Heh, I meant that the Angels’ purported reckless spending has not looked so bad this year, and the Royals many years of highly-regarded future-building futility has led to seemingly a peak of potential WC berth. Ergo — maybe taking the Royals’ approach isn’t as hot as Epstein and Luhnow’s true believers think it is.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Nor should they.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Ah, point taken. Though I’d feel a little more confident in Epstein and Luhnow than I would Moore.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Moore can’t cut it with a small market team. Not inventive enough.

9:55	Comment From Moneyballer But I feel that Castro is too overvalued and the Mets wouldn’t be willing to spend the cash to make him the long term guy

9:55	Paul Swydan: Well, that’s a different sort of problem. You didn’t ask us what cheap player the Mets should target, now did you? Hmmmm? Hmmmm?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, there just aren’t a ton of choices out there right now.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Stephen Drew

9:56	Comment From Rated Rookie After participating/observing far too many fantasy baseball chats, two responses are capable of answering 98% of submitted questions: (1) Be patient. (2) Play fantasy football instead.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: #2 is never an option

9:56	Paul Swydan: Fantasy football sucks. It’s fun for literally, LITERALLY, one day. Draft day. That’s it.

9:57	Comment From Mike T. Jeff Sullivan v. Jeff Zimmerman FITE

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: he will probably take me, I am too old

9:57	Paul Swydan: Unless Sullivan could unleash the power of his volcanoes somehow, Zimmerman would have him unconscious in under a minute.

9:58	Comment From Red More likely to be traded by the Cubs: Russell or Baez?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Neither.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:58	Comment From Guest Are you both in the same irl room while you chat? If not, how do you negotiate choosing questions

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul pick them all

9:59	Paul Swydan: We’re definitely not in the same room. I’m in Massachusetts, Jeff is in Kansas.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yeah, generally, I pick. I’m a dick like that.

9:59	Comment From Red Where do you see Hanley landing if he doesn’t resign with LA?