FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/29/14
5:38 |
That’s right, it’s the penultimate night before the trade deadline, so let’s talk some trade rumors!!! Jeff will be off watching live baseball, so you have me all to yourselves tonight. 9 pm ET. See you soon! |
9:00 |
: Hi everybody! I’ve got the last can of Summer Shandy cracked and a queue full of questions, so let’s do this thing.
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9:00 |
Hey Paul. Is Jackie Bradley figuring things out, or just having a good month in a bad season? |
9:01 |
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9:01 |
: The general tone of the media is always going to be positive wrt Bradley, because everyone likes him. But it’s one month with a 110 wRC+, and for the season he’s still at 70. I want to see more.
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9:01 |
Hey Paul – How beautifully would Beltre fit in the Jays lineup? Move Lawrie to 2nd when healthy, that would be a scary lineup. Would a Norris+Pompey+Barreto package get it done? |
9:02 |
: It’s certainly not an insulting offer, that’s for sure. I would definitely think it’d be in the ballpark.
|
9:02 |
: And yes, quite beautifully.
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9:03 |
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9:03 |
I know the Pirates want A.J. Burnett back, but they refuse to take on his 2015 player option. |
9:03 |
: The Pirates are starting to get a little too cute, I think.
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9:03 |
I know that the Pirates want A.J. Burnett back but they refuse to take on his 2015 player option. Would it be unthinkable to make a trade of A.J. Burnett for a prospect and a PTBNL. Making the PTBNL A.J. Burnett after the season? |
9:04 |
: I mean, I think stuff like that has happened before, but I’d file that one under very, very, very unlikely.
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9:04 |
Chances Marcus Stroman wins AL ROY with Tanaka going down? Has ace numbers since joining the starting rotation. |
9:04 |
That Jose Abreu guy says hi though. |
9:04 |
Who is more valuable Lester or Lackey? |
9:04 |
: Right now, Lester. Next year? Probably Lackey, given the weird club option. After that, Lester again.
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9:04 |
Do you think the Mets should trade from their pitching depth, and for who? |
9:05 |
: Yes. Trading pitching depth for hitters is always the right play. Not all those guys are going to pop, and even if they do, the Mets won’t have places for them.
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9:05 |
Do you like the prognosis for the Mets future considering their enviable pitching depth? |
9:06 |
: No, not really. They don’t have enough good hitters, and haven’t shown the willingness and/or aptitude to make the correct moves in free agency that they need to make up for their talent gap.
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9:06 |
If you are the Dodgers and you’ve got Gordon/Hanley/Barney/Uribe for this season and Seager coming soon, why not sweeten the pot on a deal for one of your less at hand desire able outfielders with Alex Guerrero? |
9:07 |
: Because Barney and Uribe are not desirable long-term assets.
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9:07 |
Kipnis and Cobb both suffered oblique injuries this year, and Kipnis says it’s robbed him of his power. But Cobb seems to have come back as good as before. Any thoughts on the impact of oblique injuries on hitters and pitchers, and on Kipnis and Cobb ROS? |
9:08 |
: My main thought would be I’m not a doctor and I have no idea. But even if there was a hitter vs pitcher trend, these two guys wouldn’t be enough to prove it.
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9:08 |
Price to STL for Taveras, Miller and a prospect? Who says no? Do the Rays risk a clubhouse meltdown if Price is traded, as Bob Nightengale says? |
9:08 |
: I generally tend to take anything that Nightengale says with a shaker of salt.
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9:09 |
12 team roto dynasty. Standard 5×5. Keep all players. Been offered either Bogaerts or Russell for Baez. Have Utley, Dozier, and D. Gordon at 2B and Hanley at SS. Make either move? |
9:09 |
: I would definitely rather have Bogaerts or Russell than Baez in a vacuum, and Bogaerts has 3B eligibility that Baez may or may not get. So I like it for your team as well.
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9:09 |
I read some Cueto on the block rumours, could this possibly be true? Given his club friendly contract with I believe 10MM club option for next year, he would theoretically net more then Price, no? Perhaps the Taveras + package would make sense for both Cincy and the Cards. |
9:10 |
: I wouldn’t expect Cueto to move. The contract is good, like you said, and the Reds tend to define inertia among major league teams.
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9:10 |
Which team cracks first and gives up their top 3 prospects to get Price? |
9:10 |
: I don’t think any. I think Price stays.
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9:10 |
So what are the Royals gonna do? |
9:10 |
: Not enough, that’s for sure.
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9:10 |
Which is more likely, sShields getting traded, or the Royals making a big name acquisition? |
9:10 |
: The latter. DMGM is too committed at this point to trade Shields.
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9:11 |
Why wouldn’t the Padres try and trade Ian Kennedy? Do they think they could really contend next year? |
9:11 |
: Well, Kennedy is one of their bigger pieces, and he will be OK at worst next year. So, without a GM, I don’t think it’s a great idea for them to trade him. If someone takes the job in the next week or two, and decides they don’t need Kennedy, they can try to move him in August.
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9:12 |
People don’t tell the staff here how much we appreciate all the work you guys do for us while still keeping this a free site. It is nice for everything to be at the quality it is including having these awesome chats everyday without having to pay a dime. So, send my thanks forward |
9:12 |
: You’re welcome!
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9:12 |
Bill Bellamy wants to know who ya got between Gyorko and Wong the rest of the season? And don’t give him the WONG answer. |
9:12 |
: Probably Gyorko. He’s been worse than awful, but there is still potential there. I don’t see the potential in Wong.
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9:13 |
I am one of those guys that looks ahead for cheap stud potential middle infield guys that can pop 10 homers and steal 30 bags heading into next season. Think Segura from 2013. Is Alcantara the guy for 2015??? |
9:14 |
: He is if they play him in the middle infield going forward. Right now, he’s at 9 games at second and 6 in center, so you should be fine for at least next season. Beyond that, well, heed Sarah Connor’s advice.
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9:14 |
Why would the Mariners give up so much for a top of the line starter? Seems like given their position it wouldn’t be worth it to mortgage the farm to give them a slightly better chance to win. |
9:14 |
: Preach.
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9:14 |
Rocky remake starring Fangraphs writers. Who’s who? You ready to rock that Paulie lifestyle? |
9:15 |
: I don’t drink nearly as much as Paulie did in the early Rocky’s, but I’d definitely be willing to give it a go. Maybe without all the threats of hitting my sister though?
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9:15 |
Seems as if Wacha just keeps getting pushed back. Drop him and use his DL spot on someone like Pineda or Myers? |
9:15 |
If it’s a dynasty league, hang onto Wacha. |
9:15 |
I’ve heard a lot of criticism of the Red Sox not signing Lester, but it is hard to ignore that that he had pretty bad mechanical problems and an ERA for 4.00 prior over the last few seasons. Is it really smart to sign a aging starter coming off a career that is slow to make adjustments? Or do you and most Red Sox fans not care about overpayong because they can afford it. |
9:16 |
: But that’s not where the criticism comes in. If you don’t think a guy is worth keeping around, you don’t offer him a 4+ year contract. The Red Sox DID do that, they just put an insulting dollar figure on it. That was a huge mistake, and potentially one that will cost them dearly.
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9:16 |
If traded What could Lackey return? He has been better than Samardijza the past couple year. I know he is older, but he is also cheaper in 2015 and has significant playoff experience,which teams seem to value. |
9:17 |
: On the right team, a lot, thanks to that funky 2015 option. But we’ll see.
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9:17 |
: That option is also a great argument for the Red Sox keeping him, since they are not bailing on the 2015 season.
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9:17 |
can the red sox just trade every player over the age of 25? i think that would be really kind of fun. but keep koji. because, you know. |
9:17 |
: I’d rather keep Ortiz and Pedroia than Koji, no offense.
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9:17 |
Where does HanRam go in the off season? The Dodger make sense, but will have to deal with Seager. The Yankees make sense, but have to deal with A-Rod. The Red Sox make sense, but have to deal with Middle rooks,Xander, and Cechinni. You have to imagine one get Lester, one gets Scherzer, and the other HanRam. |
9:17 |
: I think he ends up on the Dodgers.
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9:18 |
If Lester gets dealt to the Brewers in a deal around Nelson, will the picketing be worse at Fenway or Market Basket? Personally, I will wear a vest with multiple slots for extra pickets so that I can carry more than 2. Seriously though, can we expect a top 20 or 30 like Glasnow, Pederson, Seager, Heaney? |
9:19 |
: I received quite the education on Twitter today about the merits of Jimmy Nelson, but I’m hoping that if the Red Sox toss aside a guy who beat cancer to come back and win them a World Series (and then another) that they get a little more than Jimmy Nelson.
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9:19 |
true false: Conforto/Lagares/Nimmo will be a good enough OF to be a positive contributor on the next Mets team to make the playoffs (2015 or 2016) [assuming pitching staff is stocked/infield mostly sucks still] |
9:19 |
: False. They’ll still need something from shortstop.
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9:19 |
I keep hearing Corey Dickerson is good but not this good. What do you think? |
9:19 |
: I think he’s this good.
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9:20 |
When your favorite/hometown Eastern time zone team is playing in the Pacific time zone how late do you stay up? |
9:21 |
: I used to stay up for the whole thing. These days though, I’m generally in bed by midnight. So I just hope for a quick game. Someday I won’t have to make and/or feed my children breakfast and I will have the luxury of staying up later, but that’s a few years off at least.
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9:21 |
For all this fuss with Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales not wanting to be eligible for qualifying offers next year, would either of them even get a qualifying offer this year if their teams had the option? |
9:21 |
: I doubt it.
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9:21 |
3 way trade: Angels get Puig/Ryu/Kershaw and pay nothing of their contracts, Dodgers get Hamels and his whole salary, Phillies get Trout/Pederson/Urias/Seager/Guerrero and the Dodgers pick up their entire future career earnings. Phillies make this deal? Thanks. |
9:22 |
: That might be the craziest trade proposal I’ve ever seen. There’s not a chance in hell that this happens. I bet this would even somehow get rejected in a video game.
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9:22 |
What’s reasonable to expect to get back for Lester? |
9:23 |
: One good prospect. Top 30-40.
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9:23 |
boy bogaerts is just as lost as he’s ever been. How long do you let him “figure it out” up at the MLB level before he may need a couple weeks in Pawtucket to get some confidence back? |
9:24 |
: He’s not going to figure anything out in Pawtucket, where they have lesser facilities and fewer coaches to help him through things. Sending players to Triple-A is for contending teams who need to be running on all cylinders. The Sox are not that team. No reason to send him down other than if you want to punish him, and they’ve done that enough this year already.
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9:25 |
: Wow, weird play in the Orioles game just cost them a run.
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9:25 |
Why should the Rockies trade Tulo? |
9:26 |
1. You’ve decided to do a full-scale rebuild. Other than that, I can’t see the argument for trading him. |
9:26 |
If the Red Sox can actually get Marte, that’s like an absolute win, right? |
9:26 |
: The Red Sox aren’t getting Marte.
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9:27 |
Cobb is looking sharp tonight. Who you like more ROS/next year, him or G Richards? |
9:27 |
: Cobb
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9:27 |
Corey Dickerson 1st round pick next year? |
9:28 |
: That’s a bit extreme. With regular drafts, you need to be mindful of how others view the players you want, and I doubt Dickerson will be viewed as a top-five rounds guy.
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9:28 |
Don’t mean to pile on the Met’s pitching surplus questions. But with having such a surplus, does it make sense to go all in for Tulo over the winter? Say trade Syndergaard, Niese, Plawecki, Nimmo, SMith? Does that even get it done? Mets rotation would still then be Harvey, Wheeler, Colon, DeGrom, Gee. |
9:28 |
: Again, the Rockies can’t possibly trade Tulo unless they get a shortstop of the future back. The Cubs could fade a Tulo trade. The Mets, not so much. Sorry.
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9:28 |
apparently there’s a little known rule that if an umpire is hit with a ball it’s automatically a strike to the batter, at least if Washington-Miami is to be believed |
9:28 |
: Good to know!
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9:29 |
2015 Outfield: Would you rather have (LF – CF – RF) Kemp – JBJ – Stanton (assuming Swihart, Betts & Owens get dealt) or Pederson – JBJ – Betts (assuming Sox can get Pederson for Lester)? |
9:30 |
2015 only, definitely the one with Stanton. Probably that one going forward too, but I’d lean harder on the Pederson one in the years beyond. |
9:30 |
It wasn’t serious. |
9:30 |
: Joe, you have my sincere apologies.
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9:30 |
I think Ruben Amaro, Jr. is participating in the chat as “Joe”. |
9:30 |
is it appropriate to have a favorite team is a commentator? i think no |
9:31 |
: I think I’m going to need you to rephrase this into a coherent sentence.
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9:31 |
Do you agree with Keith Law that the Mets have the 4th best Farm system in baseball, behind the Cubs, Twins and Astros? |
9:31 |
: Keith is far better equipped to make that call than I am. So, ya.
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9:31 |
true or false SD should be contracted |
9:31 |
If we want to start talking contraction, I don’t think there’s any question that the Rays would be the first to go. |
9:32 |
: The Rays front office could then all go work for San Diego.
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9:32 |
as*** |
9:33 |
: I think, if you’re a national guy, then no. If you’re a local guy, you don’t really end up with much of a choice. A lot of the broadcasters fly on the team planes to help the networks save money. Hard to maintain your objectivity in situations like that.
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9:33 |
I refuse to accept your apologies. |
9:33 |
: You’ll accept them and like it!
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9:33 |
If you were Astros GM what would you do to try and get some positive spin? I assume the Houston FO has a long leash on the rebuild process, but pissing off teams (trade DB leak), agents (draft fiasco), and players (this stupid Appel thing) seems like that could get a GM kicked out early. |
9:34 |
: It does seem like that. They should maybe try winning some ballgames. I would also stop trying to go cheap with the #1 pick in the draft, which they have done three times and been burned by doing so twice. That’s not a great track record.
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9:35 |
: It may turn out that the Carlos Correa pick was the worst thing that ever happened to them, because it likely emboldened them to try it again with Appel, and then, well, Buxton.
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9:35 |
People are mad that a player was promoted within the minor leagues? |
9:36 |
: No, some of the players were mad that he got to throw a bullpen session in the Minute Maid Park bullpen when he has like a 9 ERA in High-A. I can see both sides of that argument, but it’s pretty telling that said players went out of their way to complain to the media about it.
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9:36 |
Not sure how my assistant had time for a question, but Pineda is starting a rehab assignment…worth a grab? |
9:36 |
: Yeah, definitely.
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9:37 |
Joe is definitely the guy who offers Francoeur for Trout in his Dynasty league once a month, calls it hilarious |
9:37 |
: You going to take that from Jake, Joe?
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9:37 |
Any chance the Cardinals move Allen Craig before the deadline for a Price or another SP? Seems kind of bold, but they have depth in their farm system regarding OFs and Adams is great at 1st. |
9:37 |
: There’s a chance that they move Craig, but if they do, he won’t be the headliner for a David Price, that’s for sure.
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9:37 |
I won’t deny it. |
9:37 |
: Joe’s a straight ridah.
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9:37 |
can the Rockies ever be successful in Colarado |
9:38 |
: They have been before, and they will be again, provided they clean house. They will someday, I’m sure, but I’m not holding my breath.
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9:38 |
The national broadcasters often offer the kind of analysis that reading old headlines and bullet point media guides make possible. Local broadcaster homerism is just another kind of terrible. |
9:39 |
: They’re not easy jobs, no matter what we might think of them. But the important thing to keep in mind is that we never are, and never will be the target audience.
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9:39 |
lol Craig for Price is the deal I would throw out there to make fun of cardinal homers |
9:39 |
I like Don Orsillo as a commentator but he really needs to stop saying “Coby Rasmus” |
9:39 |
: Orsillo is the best. NESN better re-up him in the offseason. The week he was gone was terrible.
|
9:39 |
Any chance we see something in the vein of Noah Syndergaard for Baez? |
9:40 |
: I don’t think the Cubs have any incentive to do that. The Mets would have to put someone else in.
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9:40 |
I hear from alot of Cubs fans how great Castro is and that Zack Wheeler for Castro Would be rejected by the Cubs, but i don’t suse Castro is at best a 3.0 WAR player, an is already with a ton of potential! What do you think? Also what would you say to a trade offer of Wheeler and Plawecki for Addison Russel? |
9:41 |
: I think that the Cubs would need to do better than Wheeler, who is basically league average, if they are to trade Castro. Loooooooot of teams with bad shortstops.
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9:41 |
Game calling on Fangraphs audio. Make it happen Paul. |
9:41 |
: Oh my. I don’t even know if we have the tech for live streaming at hand, nevermind the willingness to make it happen.
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9:41 |
pretty sure that’s illegal |
9:42 |
: There’s also this.
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9:42 |
: I suppose we could tape it live, and air it the next day? But you’d need to be a pretty dedicated fan to want to re-watch the game in its entirety just to listen to us.
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9:42 |
The Cardinals should stand pat in my opinion, given some of the ridiculous prices I’ve heard for top end guys. But Taveras, Miller, comp balance pick for Price is a quick yes, right? |
9:43 |
: It would be a very quick yes. But I don’t see it happening either.
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9:43 |
There are rumors that the Astros might trade some of their young pitchers like Cosart, Keuchel or mchugh unless blown away should they trade any one of them |
9:44 |
: I’m not 100% sure what you’re asking, but the way to look at any player on the Astros is this — Do you expect them to be on the 2016 ballclub? If yes, keep them. If not, trade them. Not all three of those guys will make it to 2016, so trading one of them now makes sense.
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9:44 |
I know this isn’t a deadline question but i’ve been meaning to ask for a while. Baseball Prospectus declared Mike Piazza as the 4th best pitch framer ever saving over 200 runs and Johnny Bench saving 2- which is average- (over 60,000 PA) do you agree with this study? is Mike Piazza the best catcher of all time? |
9:45 |
: I haven’t taken the time to read through any of that — I barely have enough time to read our work here at FanGraphs — but I’m obviously wary of any study that says that Johnny Bench was worse defensively than Mike Piazza.
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9:45 |
As a Mariners fan I like the local broadcasters and they are homers without being terribly obnoxious about it. Besides, they are in the business of trying to get you to watch/listen to all the games. Would even the most realist cold blooded Diamondbacks fan watch/listen to 162 games of the announcers saying everyone sucks and everyone should be fired? |
9:47 |
: Well, there is a balance to be struck. I think far too often the local guys don’t strike it, and that leads to me not trusting anything they say. The Rockies broadcasters are like that. Drew Goodman and Jeff Huson seem to think that every player in a Rockies uniform walks on water, and nearly every deficiency is hand waived. You just can’t do that.
|
9:47 |
Honestly, Tavares+spare parts: Price doesn’t sound crazy to me. The Rays might get better, but they could do a lot worse |
9:47 |
: I guess it depends on what you think of Taveras. I think by now we assumed he’d be a star. He isn’t. Not even close. That should give us pause. I don’t think he’s the slam dunk that he seemed to be a year and a half ago.
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9:48 |
It’s only pitch framing not other defense. And Mike Scioscia is also ranked high and was Piazza’s mentor. |
9:48 |
: I mean, fair enough I suppose, but again, I haven’t read it, so I don’t have anything intelligent to add to the discussion.
|
9:48 |
Why can’t the Cardinals score runs? I believe they were right in the middle of the pack in wRC+ |
9:49 |
: That’s a good question. I would imagine it will come back around, but at quick glance I’m not seeing why.
|
9:50 |
The Braves guys–and I’m speaking as a Braves fan–make Sartre’s “Hell is other people” dictum true every night with every bad pun and anti-analytical analysis they stammer out. |
9:50 |
: Yeah, I don’t enjoy their broadcasts.
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9:50 |
Give me all the cold SABR answers on why Ackley’s July is just a hot streak before regression breaks my heart again. |
9:51 |
: But I don’t want to. I want you to believe that this is the time he rewards all of your faith!
|
9:51 | : If it makes you feel any better, Ackley is still the fourth-best pick of that first round by bWAR: |
9:52 |
: He isn’t a bust by any means. He just isn’t what we thought he would be.
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9:52 |
The Angels’ broadcasters: oh dear lord, it like listening to a super fan and a guy who gets paid by the cliché. |
9:52 |
: Anyone else want to bag on their local broadcasters? Lol.
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9:53 |
What would it take to get McHugh? Top 100 offensive prospect, a high ceiling guy, and another piece? |
9:54 |
: He’s 27 and in his rookie season, during which he’s been six percent better than league average. I would not think the price to be exorbitant enough to warrant a top 100 prospect.
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9:54 |
That’s not a pretty first round…sees Mike Trout…nevermind |
9:54 |
: Yeah, which makes him slipping so far even more mind blowing. I wonder how many northeast area scouts have been fire in the past five years.
|
9:54 |
: fired
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9:54 |
The Nats radio guys are cool! And I can bear the TV guys more than a lot of people can |
9:55 |
The Seattle broadcasters used WAR to explain how awesome Cano is at the beginning of the season. I guess I’ve also learned to translate “It sure would help the Mariners if Morrison and Hart could heat up” into “These guys suck and have no business being on a playoff contender |
9:55 |
Well i’m a Mets fan #1 Howie Rose is the best. #2 the White Sox announcers are easily the most annoying. i Hate them! And every time Abreu hits a HR… |
9:55 |
: Look at that, positive comments.
|
9:55 |
your response to the Taveras/Price deal also shows how absurd it would be to deal Price for this year’s Taveras, either. Prospects are stupidly overvalued. |
9:56 |
: Yes and no. They are overvalued, but not stupidly so. The Cardinals have more incentive than most to try to get Price because their odds of winning the division are much higher than their odds of winning the wild card.
|
9:56 |
Strikeouts have been going up at a linear trend? At what point does it hit it’s ceiling. |
9:57 |
: I’m not sure. We may not be there yet though.
|
9:57 |
Is Josh Bell & Tyler Glasnow a good return for Lester? |
9:57 |
: I think that’d be too much to expect for Lester.
|
9:57 |
What do you pay for Gardner on the open market? |
9:58 |
Is pretty close to what his actual value is. |
9:58 |
Talking to a Red Sox fan and they suggested they wouldn’t trade Lester for Marte straight up. Please help me destroy them. |
9:58 |
: Well that’s just silly. But in a way, I can understand the sentiment. I don’t want them to trade Lester either. I feel like if they trade him, he’s gone forever.
|
9:58 |
Why didn’t anyoe (you, Dave Cameron) on Fangraphs apply for the Padres GM job. It’d be really cool. And i don’t think you’d be overmatched. |
9:59 |
: First of all, that’s not a job that you can apply for. You won’t see it on the Teamwork Online job board. Second, it’s a pretty grueling job, and I can definitely understand not wanting it.
|
9:59 |
But with all the Price hubbub, aren’t the rumors of Taveras for Lester a bit silly? A thousand-ish games from Taveras for 8 Lester starts? |
9:59 |
: Well, but then most rumors are silly. We’ll see what actually happens.
|
10:00 |
Before you go one last Oh so important question!!!!!!! What can we do to try and keep NotGraphs in any way, shape, or even form?!?!?!?! |
10:01 |
: Nothing. Carson is a man, and he made a decision, and we all support him.
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10:01 |
just when you think the Nats are going to pull away in the East, they have a little stretch like this where they become impossible to watch for a few games while the Braves are hot |
10:01 |
: Yeah, I don’t think they’re going to pull away. They might win, but I don’t think they pull away.
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10:01 |
Is deGrom for real? or is this just a tease to the Mets fans? |
10:02 |
: I think he’s more for real than he is for fake.
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10:02 |
: Alright guys, it’s been real, but I’m going to get going. Keep it real out there on those internets. Thanks very much for hanging out, as always!
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Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.