FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/30/13

by Paul Swydan

July 30, 2013

6:24

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

The perpetual rebel intellectuals – aka Jeff, me and maybe even Chris – will be here at 9 pm ET to talk trades, trades, TRADES, TRADES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Get your questions in, and I’ll get up some sweet, sweet polls action (posted at bottom of transcript). See you soon!

6:35	Paul Swydan: Both of the acquisition polls should read “most impactful this season.” I only made that clear on one of them.

9:02	Chris Cwik: I’m ready to light this candle. Just waiting for Swydan

9:02	Paul Swydan: So, there MAY be a three-way trade tonight: https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/362372652251348993 but there is DEFINITELY going to be some three-way chatting, because the menage a chat is back, BABY!

9:02	Comment From Guest So is this one of those “Very special FG’s After Dark Chats” like those very special episodes of bad tv series of the 80’s and 90’s?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Yes. Yes it is.

9:03	Chris Cwik: Just saw Jackie Bradley was pulled from minor league game

9:03	Chris Cwik: HOT STOVE

9:03	Comment From C. Danger Let’s light this hot stove!

9:03	Paul Swydan: Crap on a cracker. Say it ain’t so, Ben C.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Before we get started in earnest, one more poll:

9:04	Comment From juan pierres mustache as a red sox fan, i don’t know if i’m rooting for them to make a trade for peavy/lee or not. rumored prices are steep.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Good evening gents and Chris.

9:05	Chris Cwik: Give the White Sox all of your prospects. Mua ha ha

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Rumors are just rumors. Ignore most of them.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m right here with you jpm. I think ultimately I’m cool with trading anyone but Bogaerts. My son’s name is Xander, and I want him to be able to watch someone named Xander. It’s how I plan to trick him into loving baseball! Also, because he’s going to be good and junk.

9:06	Comment From Steve Middlebrooks seems to be a forgotten man. Do you see Bos using him as a trading chip and bringing Bogaerts up to cover 3B? Pevay would certainly help their staff and the CHI has a void at 3B>

9:06	Chris Cwik: I’m losing faith in Middlebrooks’ approach. Not sure I want him to be a major part of the deal if I’m the White Sox.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Could work, but I have my reservations with Peavy.

9:07

Paul Swydan: He’s not a forgotten man at all. Johnny Farrell said yesterday/the other day that Middlebrooks has been just as inconsistent in Pawtucket as he was in Boston and to not expect to see him in the majors anytime soon. But sure, maybe they can pawn him off on someone who didn’t hear that quote…

9:07	Comment From zack If a tree fell in the forest and no one heard it, would Bud Selig blame AROD?

9:07	Chris Cwik: Most definitely

9:07	Paul Swydan: Yes, and then right after that he’d threaten to contract the Twins.

9:07	Chris Cwik: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f28klp1qQGI

9:08	Comment From Andy Why are FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR so different?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Jeff always explains this better than I do.

9:09	Chris Cwik: Yep. I’m waiting for Jeff here too.

9:09	Chris Cwik: Jeff is gone?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Well, Jeff is having internet problems, ha. Basically they’re measuring slightly different things. We’ll circle back to that.

9:10	Chris Cwik: But hey…how about this.

9:10	Chris Cwik: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

9:10	Paul Swydan: Or that.

9:10	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Most of those “very special” episodes involved child predators in some way. What are you trying to tell us?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Or dangerous drug addictions: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bflYjF90t7c THERE’S NEVER ANY TIME!!!

9:11	Chris Cwik: Paul isn’t allowed to be within 200 yards of a school

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, internet issues. On WAR, for hitters the difference is Defense and Base Running.

9:11

Comment From Skore
On the Giants, I am personally in favor of a reload rather than a rebuild, possibly even packaging Pence and Scutaro for some good not great close to being MLB ready prospect, then using the Lincecum and Pence and Zito money to make a run at Cano. Thoughts? Could they get anything worth doing for Romo or Lincecum?

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: For pitchers, FG uses FIP and BR uses RA. Of the rest of the stats are the same (baseline, etc)

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Giants need to pick their spots if they do.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I think if they think they can get Cano, go for it. Personally, I don’t see that happening, but if you can, then reload. If not, the time to rebuild may be drawing neigh. They got two rings out of the deal, not too shabby. As for Pence and Scutaro, eh, you’re not going to get much.

9:13	Chris Cwik: I think a reload could work there. I would guess Romo brings an ok prospect (considering he’s a reliever). Lincecum, I’m not sure what he brings. I have a feeling teams would be afraid to offer too much.

9:13	Chris Cwik: Anthony Ranaudo pulled too

9:14	Paul Swydan: Snap digs. Something’s going down.

9:14	Chris Cwik: That sounds more like Cliff Lee than Peavy

9:14	Comment From jesse the angels (according to Crasniks tweet) would get Kennedy. are the Angles attempting gather as many sub par pitchers as possible?

9:14	Chris Cwik: Yes. Though, in fairness, Kennedy has to be a bounce back candidate.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Seems like it. But let’s not kill them yet. This seems … SEEMS mind you … like them getting Kennedy for very little. Arizona has to move him if they get another pitcher, and kind of even if they don’t.

9:15	Chris Cwik: Right. That sounds like the Peavy deal.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Reminder that I called this two months ago: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-ian-kennedy-be-the-odd-man-out-in-arizona/

9:15	Paul Swydan: Kennedy was always on borrowed time.

9:15	Comment From Will Clemens joined radio booth in Boston tonight. He had the gall to talk about Koby’s power stroke with the Sugarland Skeeters. Please discuss

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:16	Paul Swydan: It’s his son. Calm down. We’re all proud of our kids.

9:16	Chris Cwik: Can’t blame a guy for bragging about his son.

9:16	Chris Cwik: Ranaudo may have been pulled due to pitch count. Tossed 98 pitches.

9:16	Chris Cwik: We can calm down slightly.

9:16	Paul Swydan: You’re just trying to get me all riled up.

9:17	Comment From Izzy What would you consider a fair trade for both sides if the Phillies trade Cliff Lee to the Red Sox?

9:17	Chris Cwik: I’m leaving this for Paul.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree.

9:17	Paul Swydan: I’d do three non-Bogaerts guys for him if Phillies eat say 50% of the salary. If they eat none of the salary, then they can get one top 5 guy and a top 6-15 guy.

9:17	Paul Swydan: In other words, I’d eat some money if I was them.

9:18	Comment From Pork Sale Is Carlos Martinez too much straight up for Erick Aybar? I get this vibe that the Cardinals are willing to ditch him. Seems like a Mozelliak move. Everyone sees it as an overpay, then Aybar has the game winning RBI in all 4 World Series games.

9:18	Chris Cwik: Now Alex Rios leaving a game after fouling a ball off his foot

9:18	Chris Cwik: I think that’s too much for Aybar.

9:18	Paul Swydan: It’s an overpay, but it might end up a worthwhile overpay. I will say though that I don’t think Aybar is a lock to turn things around. His BB% has fallen each of the past three seasons.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: It is just Aybar, he is not worth too much.

9:19	Paul Swydan: And his contract isn’t exactly cheap either.

9:19	Comment From morf tnemmoC What does “First batter efficiency” mean (watching Pirates-Cards and Randy Choate’s is 74%)?

9:19	Chris Cwik: I don’t really know???

9:20	Paul Swydan: It means he retired the first batter he faced upon entering the game, which is a big deal for Choate since he frequently only faces one batter.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Out% for 1st batter?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Bingo.

9:20	Comment From Anthony Suggested poll question: ideal score for a baseball game? (Personally, I waver between 3-2 and 4-3.)

9:20	Paul Swydan: Oooh, I like it!

9:21	Comment From jesse 17-3?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I say 4-3, with the 4 being a walk-off triple.

9:21	Comment From Sgt. Pepper 1-0, walk off Yasiel Puig inside the park home run.

9:21	Comment From jesse JBJ/Igleseas/Renaudo?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I do love me a 1-0 game every once and a while.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Law firm?

9:21	Chris Cwik: I’m going to work on a poll real quick

9:22	Paul Swydan: I could see that. I’d hate to give up JBJ, but you gotta trade someone.

9:22	Comment From Vlowe Is Wil Myers a tiger or just a vicious koala bear?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Maybe he’s a liger? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liger

9:23	Comment From fo.star Tell me something about Andrew Heaney.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Napolaon Dynamite agrees.

9:23	Paul Swydan: He was just promoted to Double-A.

9:23	Comment From Big Daddy Would you trade Wil Myers for Jose Fernandez both in A contracts in a 15 team mixed keeper laegue?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: No, always take the hitter.

9:24	Paul Swydan: It would depend on team needs. Close call.

9:24	Paul Swydan: I saw Pedro strike out 17 once!

9:24	Chris Cwik: Feel like that’s a solid poll question. Patting myself on the back

9:25	Paul Swydan: Although, the Rockies comeback walk-off in the play-in game against SD is still my favorite live game ever, narrowly beating the Celtics’ epic Game 3 comeback in the 2003 ECF.

9:25	Comment From jesse I saw Ellis Burks hit an extra inning walk off- followed by a 4th of July laser show!!!

9:25	Chris Cwik: Solid day

9:25	Paul Swydan: Very solid.

9:25	Comment From John NO WAY 7% HAVE SEEN PERFECT GAME YOU LIARS

9:25	Chris Cwik: Jerks

9:26	Paul Swydan: You have the faces of jerks!

9:26	Comment From Sox Fan How stupid was Ken Rosenthal’s idea of Bogaerts for Lee?

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Veryish

9:26	Chris Cwik: About an 8 or 9 on a scale of 10.

9:27	Comment From John “How stupid was Ken Rosenthal’s [x]?” is always such a great question

9:27	Chris Cwik: That’s a trade that happens maybe 20 years ago.

9:27

Paul Swydan: Not stupid at all. A) We’re talking about it, so mission accomplished. B) The Phillies have every right to demand Bogaerts. C) There’s no guarantee that it would be a bad deal for the Sox. Like Dave Cameron said, it’s all about the odds, and the odds say it would be a bad deal. But it’s worth talking about.

9:27	Comment From Ryan David Schoenfield had a list of the active players most likely to make the Hall of Fame– did you see it/what are your thoughts?

9:27	Chris Cwik: I didn’t see it, but will take a look now.

9:27	Paul Swydan: I saw the tweet about it but didn’t get a chance to read it.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: OK list. I wish he did it in tiers. It was kind of all over the place.

9:28	Comment From zack Who you taking longterm: Cole or Wheeler?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Ooof. Tough. I’ve been encouraged by Cole’s uptick in K’s.

9:28	Chris Cwik: Wheeler if I have to choose.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Good question, Wheeler?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I will say Cole for now, just to be contrarian.

9:28	Comment From zack If Derek Jeter got caught using PED’s would he still make the hall of fame?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Yup. Because he’d smartly apologize right away and everyone would accept his apology.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: That would be AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111 The writers would blow a gasket.

9:29	Chris Cwik: I say yes, because there would be a rationalization for it. He didn’t use until now, and he was trying to recover. Or something like that.

9:29	Paul Swydan: But his getting caught would still be the worst player getting caught.

9:30	Comment From Ventura What do you think the Rangers will do, if anything, to bolster their offense at the deadline? Their outfield is iffy, don’t you think?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Maybe get Kubel or Pence. Not seeing a lot out there, especially if Rangers are demanding a high price for Rios. And yes, Murphy has been a big disappointment in that outfield. And they are probably losing Cruz too.

9:30	Chris Cwik: They are worried Nelson Cruz is going to get suspended, so, yes, outfield is key.

9:31	Paul Swydan: especially if White Sox

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: With outfielders, they may be able to pick up a players on waivers like when the Giants got Cody Ross a few years ago,

9:31	Comment From zack I’m not sure why everyone is so eager to deal for Peavy. He’s given up 18 home runs in 80 innings.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Fair.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree Zack: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mash-report-72913-peavy-and-davish-in-detail/

9:31	Chris Cwik: That rate is much higher than his career average. Though, he has become a homer prone pitcher. Also pitches in a tough HR park.

9:32	Comment From Robin Any noise out there about Brewers moving Aoki or Weeks? Should they?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Haven’t heard anything about Weeks, but have heard that they are trying to re-sign Aoki.

9:32	Chris Cwik: Not that I’ve seen. Royals apparent had some interest in Weeks, but it didn’t seem serious. The Brewers should probably be making moves, but it’s been real quiet.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I know there was some news of Weeks (or Beckham) to KC.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Ah. OK, thanks Jeff.

9:33	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Last week I accused Jim Leyland of being responsible for the Irish Potato Famine. Is Leyland in cahoots with Bud Selig to pass the blame off to A-Rod?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Yes?

9:33	Chris Cwik: Afraid to say anything

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: A-rod will get blamed for everything.

9:34	Comment From Charlie Manuel Layman’s explanation of the difference between wRC+ & wOBA?

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: wOBA is set to scale similar to OBP

9:35	Chris Cwik: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/

9:35	Comment From zack AROD=History’s greatest monster?

9:35	Paul Swydan: No, that’s still Jimmy Carter.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: or Selig

9:36	Comment From F U Jobu it was AROD who taught Pete Rose to gamble, right?

9:36	Chris Cwik: He’s behing Hitler…but barely.

9:36	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Someone on my TV is talking about some Rays-Bosox twitter feud. Is this a real thing or just sensationalism?

9:36	Chris Cwik: A little bit of both.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Uh, both, I think. The Rays had some fun with the Sox last night, and the Sox childishly fired back. It was stupid.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: It is twitter, who cares?

9:37	Chris Cwik: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/30/red-sox-rays-twitter-feud_n_3676486.html

9:37	Comment From Cale What is your favorite non game part of baseball? The trade deadline? Draft? Winter meetings? Am I missing anything.

9:38	Chris Cwik: Tough to say. Right now I’m really into the deadline, but that’s because the team I root for is supposed to be active.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Probably the winter meetings, unless there’s a really good Hall of Fame weekend. Can’t wait to take my son to Pedro’s induction!

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe the draft, I think too much non-baseball is covered, like AROID

9:38	Comment From WRL If the Jays were to trade Bautista to Pittsburgh, Reyes to St. Louis and Encarnacion to Texas what sort of return could Toronto expect? I know Toronto does not want to rebuild but it is hard watching these players getting older while the team spins its wheels.

9:38	Chris Cwik: That last question deserves a DISAGREEMENTS

9:39	Paul Swydan: I see absolutely no reason why they would trade Encarnacion. Bautista and Reyes I guess I could see, and I would still expect at least one top 50 prospect for each. But I think they’re going to gear up for one more shot with this roster in 2014.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will give it one more try. They have a decent core.

9:40	Chris Cwik: this happened http://pauls.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/quallsfalls.gif

9:40	Chris Cwik: Also, agree with Paul

9:41	Comment From Joe Rank my pitchers ROS? (W, ERA, WHIP, K) King Felix, Bumgarner, Iwakuma, Price, Scherzer

9:41	Paul Swydan: Felix, Scherzer, Price, Bumgarner …. Iwakuma.

9:41	Chris Cwik: Yeah. I’m ok with that ranking.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Price, Felix, Max/Bum then Iwakuma

9:42	Chris Cwik: Might switch Price and Scherzer in Paul’s ranking, but that’s it.

9:42	Comment From Sgt. Pepper I don’t understand the Red Sox response. Wtf is that even supposed to mean.

9:42	Chris Cwik: Avisail Garcia pulled…THE PLOT THICKENS!!!!

9:42	Paul Swydan: What it means is that there are usually more Red Sox fans than Rays fans at Red Sox-Rays games in Tampa.

9:42	Comment From Three Fingers Stump Yadier Molina out of the game for the Cards

9:43	Chris Cwik: #hotstove

9:43	Paul Swydan: The plot thickens even more!!! Maybe….?

9:43	Comment From Blargh Dynasty league. Wainwright and Rios for Fowler, Chris Archer, Hultzen and Alex Meyer.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Fowler side.

9:43	Chris Cwik: Yeah. That’s a lot of young talent

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Fowler long term, the other side short term.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Think Fowler > Rios, and then Archer, Hultzen & Meyer is good return for Waino.

9:44	Comment From derp Speaking of PEDs, which player do you think benefited the most from steroid use? How would you try and measure that?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Sosa, he was basically a 4th OFer before the juice.

9:44	Chris Cwik: It would be someone who was a 26th man, but was able to turn themselves into a middle-of-the-order hitter. Made a ton of money

9:45	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t try and measure it, but the players who admitted to using and came out the cleanest were Pettitte and Giambi because they owned up to it right away and in essence changed the narrative.

9:45	Chris Cwik: So…Jeff’s answer works well using my rationale.

9:45

Comment From derp
In retrospect, Nationals fans shouldn’t have been so entitled this year, but next year we have a lot going on. All we really need to address is the back end of the rotation, and the bullpen, and the outfield, and sort of shore up the bench and maybe explore options at 1B because LaRoche is kinda meh and oh god that’s like everything

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Chris, what was your thought when Sosa was on the Sox?

9:46	Chris Cwik: I was, like six back then, Jeff.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Chris’ thought was probably, ‘oh boy, first grade is gonna be great!!!’

9:46	Chris Cwik: Haha

9:46	Paul Swydan: derp wins comment of the night btw.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Was it that long ago, damn I am old.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Also, don’t forget a horrible medical staff.

9:47	Chris Cwik: I still think the Nats are in good shape. You can move Espinosa back to second if needed, shift Zim to first and use Rendon at third. Taylor Jordan is your five, so you might need one starter. Not sure what to do with Span. It’s not terrible, though.

9:48	Paul Swydan: You mean the Espinosa who will be coming off of wrist and rotator cuff injuries and has about one season of good play in the majors? THAT Espinosa?

9:48	Chris Cwik: Well…yeah, that will happen.

9:48	Comment From Sgt. Pepper MOVE THEM BACK TO MONTREAL

9:48	Chris Cwik: But still, that’s one major spot and a back end starter

9:48	Chris Cwik: Plus, given how quickly bullpens can turn around, I wouldn’t be concerned.

9:48	Paul Swydan: I’m more down with moving Tampa to Montreal, but yeah, sure. Whatever gives me more excuses to visit Casino de Montreal, the better.

9:49	Comment From Sean Chris, thoughts on Rienzo’s start tonight?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Chris…?

9:50	Chris Cwik: I only saw the first few innings. Was somewhat impressed. He seemed composed and was throwing strikes. That’s always a concern. Like his curveball quite a bit. Fastball didn’t look hard, but hitters had a tough time with it.

9:50	Chris Cwik: I’m hoping to watch his whole performance later tonight.

9:50	Comment From timmy What could the Jays get for Casey Jansen? Also would you trade or extend Rasmus?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: For Jansen, a younger bullpen arm. Trade Rasmus, never like him.

9:51	Chris Cwik: Yeah, I’m not sure I would extend Rasmus

9:51

Paul Swydan: See now this is a trade I could get behind. Not a top 100 guy probably, but someone like a team’s 5th-6th best prospect, like the Brewers did for K-Rod.

Rasmus is tougher. Leaning extend, since he’s still only 26, but the money would have to be right. I think I’d rather keep him and go year to year.

9:52	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Based solely on questions you receive in the chat which team do you think is the most popular?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Red Sox, White Sox and Royals.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: For this chat, Boston.

9:52	Chris Cwik: Tonight it’s the Red Sox

9:52	Paul Swydan: Yeah, tonight it’s Boston. But we usually get a lot of Royals questions.

9:52	Comment From Guest How screwed are the Phillies for the next, say, decade?

9:53	Comment From Alex Wood Do I keep my starting job or am I destined for the pen?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I think he’s done enough to get 2-3 more starts and see what happens.

9:54	Chris Cwik: I think you deserve a shot in the rotation eventually. But your rise to the majors has been aggressive, and it’s not crazy to expect some early struggles.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Phillies – How long is the Howard contract, yea, that long. Wood will get messed around like Minor or Medlen.

9:54	Comment From Cale Iglesias has been pulled to start the 9th. Could be nothing. COULD BE SOMETHING. My Column:

9:54	Chris Cwik: Pretty much accurate

9:54	Paul Swydan: Cale wins second funniest comment of the night.

9:54	Comment From Foul Ball Gag 2 parts… Team that benefits the most by acquiring Utley (BALT, LAD, OAK)? And which of those teams would give up the most to get him?

9:55	Chris Cwik: I say Baltimore for both answers

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Part 1 Baltimore, Part 2 is the Dodgers, they will pay the most 95% of the time.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Slight agree, but all three teams could use him. OAK getting him would pretty much lock it up for them, I think.

9:56	Comment From fo.star Why doesn’t Rajai Davis play more often? Seems like a stud leadoff guy.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Can’t hit righties.

9:56	Chris Cwik: There you have it.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Career vs LHP – 111 wRC+ Career vs RHP – 47 wRC+

9:57	Chris Cwik: Zoinks

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: It is 74 not 47

9:57	Paul Swydan: Yeah. Basically THE perfect fourth outfielder. His SB% is ridiculous.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Oh sorry, his vs R as L is 47 and his vs R as R is is 76. I read wrong column. Still though.

9:58	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Who are the frontrunners for manager of the year?

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Eno Sarris

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Hurdle?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Johnny Farrell, Melvin, Maddon, Francona in AL. Hurdle, Mattingly in NL

9:59	Chris Cwik: Farrell probably gets some, maybe Melvin in AL. Agree in NL. Hurdle

9:59	Comment From Pork Sale Is David Freese traded to accommodate Wong via Carpenter moving to 3rd next year?