FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/7/15

by Paul Swydan

July 7, 2015

5:44	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff is on vacation, so you’re stuck with just me! Get your questions in, and I’ll see you at 9 pm ET.

9:00	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this.

9:00	Comment From Pale Hose Did you have a good 4th, Paul?

9:00	Paul Swydan: I did. Went to a friend’s lake house, and two of the houses on his lake had dueling illegal fireworks shows. It was pretty awesome, actually.

9:01	Comment From Pale Hose One of these years there will be a FG meetup I can make it to.

9:01	Paul Swydan: I know, I was disappointed I couldn’t make the DC one this weekend, since I set it up and all. But I heard good things!

9:01	Comment From Jung Ho Kodos I like to pick up injured stars in H2H where I feel my roster management leads me to good results throughout the season. I offered Teixeira for Miguel Cabrera and he countered with Joey Bats which is ludicrous. Should I just drop it here or throw in a sweetener with Tex?

9:01	Paul Swydan: I would let it go.

9:02	Comment From Stephen Paul, I have a dilemma. Can I drop Starlin Castro in a 12 team mixed league? I would drop for brad miller, or I’ve been offered tulo for my scherzer. SS kinda sucks this year, or really the past several years.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Or, really the past all of the years. I don’t mind dropping Starlin for Miller, and in most years I would tell you go ahead and do Scherzer for Tulo, but this year you need to ask for something more for Scherzer, since he’s been awesome.

9:03	Comment From Xolo Rumors are starting to spread in San Diego that the owners have given Preller the green light to start selling off parts. Is that an old timey glove to the face of Dave Cameron?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I think it’s an old timey glove to the face of AJ Preller, to be honest. Either he’s some kind of salesman, or the owners are willing to accept that they need to cut their losses.

9:04	Comment From Jonny Flapjacks What’s up with all these superstars forgetting how to walk and K’ing at career high levels? Beltre, Kemp, and Tulo come to mind, to name a few. Is this something that’ll correct over the course of the season (Tulo’s shown some improvement recently), or what?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Well, I’d be hesitant to group all those players together. Kemp hasn’t been a star for five years. Beltre is old and tends to swing at everything, and when you swing at everything and you’re old, sometimes you miss. And, like you said, Tulo is getting back to being Tulo.

9:05	Comment From Matty Os Chances Hunter Strickland becomes the Giants closer within the month? Casilla seems lost, and Romo’s ERA is almost 5.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I’d still say low. The Giants have had plenty of chances to cut bait on Casilla, and they keep going back to him.

9:05	Comment From Archibald Are you wearing pants?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Don’t you hate pants?!?!?!

9:05	Comment From Chicago Guy Who says no – Sale for Correra.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Astros. Quickly.

9:05	Comment From Rocket Roger What is the chance that the Red Sox transition Hanley back into an infield position?

9:07

Paul Swydan: The prevailing opinion among those i talk to think that putting him in a position to field the ball more frequently is probably a mistake. Observationally, he really does look quite fat and out of shape this year. I’m not sure the quick movements required of an infielder are something he can manage at this point.

9:07	Comment From NL Central Is David Price’s next contract closer to Lester’s $155M of Kershaw/Schrezer’s $215M?

9:07	Paul Swydan: The latter.

9:07	Comment From Ullu Ka Patta Petition to gather Soria, Aaron Judge and Jeurys Familia onto the same team so that we can have Judge, Jeurys & Mexecutioner

9:07	Paul Swydan: Doesn’t Familia really not like that Mexecutioner name?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Or, Soria, rather.

9:07	Comment From Minty Will Schwarber be stuck in AAA until at least September no matter how well he hits?

9:08	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so. I’ll think we’ll see movement on his situation either at the trade deadline or in August.

9:08	Comment From Ullu Ka Patta Over/Under on “smarmy comments from people proud that they noticed your poll typo” will be set at eleventy billion

9:08	Paul Swydan: If that wasn’t a Freudian slip, I don’t know what is.

9:08	Comment From Dwight Swain If you had to be in one of the following professions and the pay was equal, would you rather be a movie writer, TV writer, video game writer, novel/short story writer, or poetry writer?

9:09	Paul Swydan: OH, fun! 1. Novel/short story 2. Movie writer 3. TV writer 4. Video game writer 5. Poetry writer

9:10

Paul Swydan: I love novels, so no way I could top that. Someday when my kids are both in school, maybe I’ll even get around to writing one. I love movies. TV is cool too. I put video games low because I’m from the generation where video games didn’t have much in the way of story, outside of maybe Zelda and Mario Bros. Stories in video games are kind of stupid, if you ask me. I just want to go and kill things/beat them at sports.

9:11	Comment From Dwight Swain On a scale of 1-10, how disturbed are you by the fact that all human life will become extinct at some point in the future? Is nihilism and/or self-delusion the solution to this problem?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I guess a 1. I’m not concerned at all. I’ve had a good run, and I spend as much time with my children as I possibly can, so I’ll go out with no regrets. Ready. To. Die.

9:12	Comment From Jenju Have an Ottoneu trade- send Machado 21, Calhoun 5, Wacha 8, A Bradley 5 get Cueto 11, Gardner 13, Cespedes 19, N Cruz 16, A Guerrero 6. I’m in 4th and 1100 pts back- would need a heck of a finish. I was leaning towards yes. Your thoughts? Thanks

9:13

Paul Swydan: I’d be hesitant to trade for a package that centers around a pitcher (Cueto) with such an uncertain future. A) he’s already had elbow trouble this year, and B) he’ll almost certainly be on a team in a couple of weeks. If the new team happens to play in a bandbox – like say, Baltimore or Toronto – that’d probably be bad news for you.

9:13	Comment From Park Chan hos Beard Where is Tulo playing come the trade deadline? CarGo?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Colorado. Colorado.

9:14	Comment From Tony Starks And is this CoverIt Live or some other crappy chat host site we have to thank for a summer football camp background picture in a baseball chat? Details, people

9:14	Paul Swydan: All Cover It Live. Be thankful it’s a picture of sprots.

9:14	Comment From Mr. Met Do you expect anything out of Beachy? Looks like he’s back right after the break.

9:14	Paul Swydan: No, been burned by him before.

9:14	Comment From Angel Dust in the Outfield Will Aaron Nola be mixed league relevant?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I can’t see him being relevant in any league that counts wins, but I’d be happy to be proven wrong.

9:15	Comment From Mr. Met Isn’t popcorn better when it’s just a little burnt?

9:16	Paul Swydan: No, gross.

9:16	Comment From Joss I am very mad that an obvious call up option like Rob Refsnyder isnt listed on Yahoo, now I’m sure to lose him on the wire.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Yahoo is the best and worst at the exact same time.

9:16	Comment From ryN Paul, better hitter stash, Schwarber, Gallo or both?

9:16	Paul Swydan: As it stands now, I think Schwarber, but it depends on what Chicago does at the trade deadline.

9:16	Comment From Jimmy Johns Jung Ho Kang show over? Hes been awful lately..

9:17	Paul Swydan: Well, Clint has been yanking him in and out of the lineup pretty relentlesly. Hopefully with Harrison on the shelf, Kang sees some steady playing time and can make some adjustments.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Don’t forget, this is around the time now when the whole league finally has a book on him and can start exploiting his weaknesses. President Kang has to adjust back.

9:17	Comment From Jimmy Johns Better stash? Trea Turner or Oswaldo Arcia?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Turner.

9:18	Comment From Ryan Who are your picks in the NL and AL final all star votes?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Kershaw and Bogaerts.

9:18	Comment From Dwight Swain RE Pick a writing career question: Have you read Stephen King’s On Writing? It’s not very helpful in improving your writing skills, but it’s good at making you feel inspired to write a novel. I recommend it.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Eternally on my list. Perhaps if King ever stopped writing new novels, I’d have a chance to dig in on it. Though I have been meaning to go re-read The Stand again, so who knows.

9:19	Comment From Adam So I lost Miggy and am in dire need of power. I just traded brad miller for chris carter. is carlos santana worth a waiver claim as well?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Santana is definitely worth a waiver claim, but he’s been having a pretty frustrating year.

9:19	Comment From Ryan What kind of odds could I have gotten for Brock Holt being the Red Sox all star this year?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Oh, probably pretty decent now that the game “counts.” Can’t believe a manager chose him over A-Rod, and worse, that it was the correct call in context of the situation. The ASG counting is a travesty.

9:20	Comment From yoooo Do you have faith in Sano being a productive choice for 3B in a redraft that uses OBP/OPS, especially versus Forsythe or some similar mid-to-low level option?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well, he’s not playing third base yet. Just DH so far.So, if he doesn’t play 3B, then he won’t be listed there next year.

9:22	Paul Swydan: If you mean this year, then yeah, I’d take him over Forsythe.

9:22	Comment From john Do you see Corey Seager as a major contributor at all this year?

9:22	Paul Swydan: No, I expect him up in mid-to-late August.

9:22	Comment From Mattmatt Does anyone know why Dale Murphy was the top search result on Fangraphs for much of the day? Not that I am complaining, the stormin mormon is my favorite player.

9:23	Paul Swydan: I am guessing that someone linked to his player page in a well-read article. The culprit in these situations is often old friend Jonah Keri.

9:23	Comment From Michael Could someone please explain the times through the order penalty to John Farrell? You think it’d be simple … don’t leave Miley out for the 4th time through, don’t leave Masterson out for the 2nd time through, etc. Also why does FanGraphs not have times through the order splits?

9:23	Paul Swydan: The latter question is certainly worth asking, and I will inquire about it! As for things that John Farrell needs to be taught, whew, don’t get me started.

9:25	Comment From Bakkemon New to a league with some aggressive and competitive players who clearly see me as a novice. How do you balance being active and polite when at times it feels like they’re trying to fleece you?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, no one has ever accused me of being polite before, so you’re asking the wrong person, haha.

9:26	Comment From Jimmy Johns i have Joe Panik AND Devon Travis on my team…. who should I trade for maybe an outfielder or catcher since that is a weak spot on my team?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Ha, that’s funny, I have Panik and Travis too. If I had to pick, I’d trade Panik, just on the fact that the Blue Jays’ offense is better as a whole.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Bogaerts making a good case for winning that Final Vote with a bases-clearing single.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Jerry Remy is convinced!

9:27	Comment From Michael Bogaerts with a 3-RBI single to take the lead! ALL-STAR!!!

9:27	Comment From Minty If he’s back to pitching the way he was in AA, do you think that Urias will debut this year if they do/do not make a trade?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I think that the Dodgers probably won’t debut him this year unless they get desperate.

9:28	Comment From WAR-time Consigliere ROS in H2H category league: Taijuan or Montgomery? Also, rank these for ROS: AMiller, Melancon, Perkins. Thanks, Paul!

9:28	Paul Swydan: Made in Taijuan for sure. Assuming Miller is healthy, Miller, Perkins, Melancon.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Remy is having an embolism over Carter Capps’ throwing motion. Pretty amusing.

9:29	Comment From Mattmatt Oh yeah, found it:

9:29	Comment From Mattmatt https://grantland.com/the-t…

9:29	Paul Swydan: BOOM.

9:29	Comment From Jimmy Johns I think its safe to safe the chance to buy low on Bogaerts has dried up.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Well, it should be, anyway.

9:30	Comment From G In the first game of the Cubs/Cards doubleheader, Motte entered the game with one out in the 9th with the Cubs up by 3 runs. He got the next two outs yet wasn’t credited with a save. Do you know why this is?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Probably because the official scorer was feeling high and mighty. Sometimes they screw with the rules. Shrug.

9:30	Comment From hanstone Time to drop Alfredo Simon? His 4.17 ERA is killing me. ZIPs has him at 4 to 5 wins RoS… Thinking about nabbing Gausman.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, Simon is just a guy. Don’t worry about dropping him/

9:31	Comment From Steve Who is a better fantasy prospect – Michael Conforto or Manuel Margot? Will either have an impact in 2016?

9:32	Paul Swydan: It’s an interesting question. Conforto doesn’t have much power yet, but he’s supposed to. So I guess I’ll take him over Margot, even though Margot is probably the better prospect overall.

9:32	Comment From BMarkham what will the Cardinals need to part with to get Lind? Adams for Lind who says no?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Probably the Brewers, because they probably want a younger player than Adams.

9:33	Comment From Gaardians of Asgaard Does it make more sense for the Mets to be buyers, sellers, or stay put?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Mets should have already been buyers. They still should be, but their clownshoes front office will probably find an excuse for why they can’t be.

9:33	Comment From BMarkham Can you add plate discipline stats to the box scores? Like contact%, swing%, swstr%?

9:33	Paul Swydan: For pitchers or hitters or both? Not sure how helpful it’d be for hitters….

9:34	Comment From Matt Buccholz for Brandon Finnegan and Sean Manaea… Who says no?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Sox.

9:34	Comment From David Wiers I can only assume you’re running multiple screens to watch baseball and soccer. Right?

9:34	Paul Swydan: I’m not, Wiers, leave me alone, I’m tired. I’ll put on soccer when the chat is over. Maybe.

9:34	Comment From KinersKorner Think either of Cueto or Hamels ends up in Arlington?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I do not. But if either of them does, I’d think it would be Cueto.

9:35	Comment From Jimmy Johns Will we see Daniel Norris starting for the Blue Jays again this year?

9:35	Paul Swydan: At least for a spot start, yeah.

9:35	Comment From Jimmy Johns Thoughts on Joe Ross? He was extremely impressive in his 3 starts.

9:36	Paul Swydan: He was, but the mark of a rookie isn’t the first three starts (see, Rodriguez, Eduardo) but what he does after the league has some major league video with which to build a gameplan around.

9:36	Comment From KinersKorner Think the Twins try and add a SP from the outside? They’re not typically active traders especially anything splashy, so maybe Niese? He’s controllable and not a big payroll hit. Is Polanco a guy they’d let go in a move like that?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Polanco, Polanco, ah, Jorge Polanco, SS prospect. Ah, no, they need all the shortstop help they can get. Seems like they rushed him to the majors, but if he can hang, you leave him be.

9:38	Comment From Joe This is a serious question, not trolling at all. Do you guys have editors? Someone commented on Dave’s article that fangraphs seems to have a ton of basic spelling, etc errors that big websites don’t usually have, and I’ve noticed it too.

9:39

Paul Swydan: We do have editors, yes. Sometimes in our haste to get a story up we’ll make mistakes, and that is regrettable. If you see an error, the most constructive thing to do is point it out without putting on your King Grammar hat, but unfortunately that is not how most commenters choose to play the situation. Which is also regrettable, since it just makes the writer or editor in question defensive.

9:40	Comment From Joe Dynasty start up where salary matters. Is Tulo the number 1 SS or would you rather have correa and his minimum salary?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Probably Correa.

9:40	Paul Swydan: But you couldn’t be BLAMED for going with Tulo.

9:40	Comment From Sonny "Salmonella" Gray When does Kazmir for Singleton happen? Seems like an obvious win-win.

9:40	Paul Swydan: I would think the A’s would want more than Singleton.

9:41	Comment From Cage If the Twins want pitching help, they should just call up Berrios.

9:41	Paul Swydan: There’s still time for that. Ideally, they’d call him up right after the break, and get him 2 or 3 starts before they make any moves. We’ll see.

9:41	Comment From rustydude Our traditional 5×5 roto league is going with 2 rounds of playoffs, head-to-head, for 2 weeks each round. Any advice to weather the transition? I know nothing about H2H.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Nor should you. This isn’t fantasy football. Head to head in fantasy baseball is stupid. Just make sure you can be flexible enough to pick up the starting pitchers who will start twice in your weeks in question.

9:43	Comment From Michael #FreeStevenWright

9:43	Paul Swydan: Indeed.

9:43	Comment From Mr. Met Is it possible that the whole Mets pitching staff, including Niese, is feeding off each other to show us better and better performances? I don’t remember Niese pitching this well and Matz used to help out Syndergaard in Las Vegas.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Niese is actually pitching his worst ball since his very first call-up. So, I guess I’d have to go ahead and sort of, disagree with you there.

9:44	Comment From Pat The Pirates need to upgrade their (blank) if they are going to make a deep playoff run.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Defense and bullpen seem like the biggest culprits right now.

9:46	Comment From Guest I wonder how Billy Beane is escaping the criticism from the Donaldson trade….I mean how the hell did that happen?

9:46	Paul Swydan: It was a good question at the time, and remains a good question now.

9:46	Comment From jc I’d rather H2H, roto tends to get boring with no direct competition, like the diference between a race and an actual sport. More room for bets and banter too.

9:47	Paul Swydan: If you want to make bets, go to Vegas. I find H2H abhorrent, because you can draft the best team possible, and it all goes out the window because your best pitcher only throws once a week. So stupid.

9:47	Comment From Joe Thanks for the answer to the editor question. I know how hard your job is and how much harder it gets when up against a deadline. Was definitely not trying to be grammar police, as we all hate those types.

9:48	Paul Swydan: No worries.

9:48	Comment From Jimmy Johns Paul, gun to your head, choose 1 player in the minors that will be a superstar? Who do you choose?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Gun to my head, I’d just take Seager, since he’s now seemingly the consensus #1 prospect. Prospect people know better than I do.

9:49	Comment From Michael Can Mike Napoli pull it back together after the ASG, or is he toast?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Nice, crispy toast. There’s a reason that no team beat the Red Sox offer when the Sox reneged on their larger commitment to him. I think his hip really is shot, and no one is talking about it.

9:50	Comment From francis Angels on fire since DiPoto left. I wonder if he left that stat pack with the players before he left.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Oh, I’m sure ole Mikey Scioscia gave them a nice rallying cry after it all went down. Though I’m sure playing the Rangers helped a little bit.

9:51	Comment From Nick Piggybacking that dynasty start up question, what’s your strategy in dynasty? Go young or treat it like a redraft basically? I know Eric karabell always talks about how he treats it like a regular redraft

9:52

Paul Swydan: I have begun to see the wisdom in that. Essentially that viewpoint is this — there are always prospects. Don’t fall in love with any one, because Mike Trout only comes around once in a century. Maybe half century. Whatever, you get the point. Certainly nothing wrong with a balanced approach, but I am starting to use prospects in dynasty as trade chips for current talent.

9:52	Comment From Jimmy Johns How come the Yankees arent going after all of the Cuban players? Seems like with a payroll like theirs, they have been awfully quiet the past couple of years.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Having a large payroll isn’t the determining factor with acquiring international talent, though IIRC the Yankees blew through their July 2 money in one of the most recent years.

9:53	Comment From Brett Currently rostering Boxberger, is McGee more valuable as insurance versus holding Clippard?

9:54	Paul Swydan: No, Clippard more valuable right now. Who knows what will happen with McGee. As for Clippard, no guarantee that the A’s punt on the season.

9:54	Comment From JV Better keeper? Altuve at $41 or Odor at $8 in standard $260 with 12 teams

9:54	Paul Swydan: Ooooh, close. Probably Altuve, but I won’t blame you if you’d rather have the payroll flexibility.

9:55	Comment From skip Need catching help! Roll with one of Wieters, Jaso or Hundley or stream whoever has the best matchup/chance of playing that day?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Streaming with catchers can be difficult unless you’re putting in a lot of time, because even most starters get a lot of rest. I’d roll with Jaso or one of the other two guys.

9:55	Comment From Snape Player comparison for Nomar Mazara ???

9:56	Paul Swydan: I just learned of his existence yesterday, so that’s probably a better question for Kiley.

9:56	Comment From Angel Dust in the Outfield Traded away Stanton in our keep forever at no cost 5×5 roto. Got Joc, Puig, and Harvey. I’m going for it this year which is why I did it, but did I get enough long term? Or is trading Giancarlo always a bad move?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I think you got plenty. Nicely done, holmes.

9:57	Paul Swydan: (Holmes being a subtle “Friday” joke)

9:57	Paul Swydan: (one related to angel dust) (raise your hand if you got it)

9:58	Paul Swydan: OK I put on the soccer game so Wiers stops yelling at me.

9:58	Comment From Wrong Leverrrrr Do you buy CJ Cron’s hot start since being recalled? Obviously the K% has always been an issue, but he absolutely feasted on AAA pitching and slugged enough to mostly overcome it at the plate last year

9:58	Paul Swydan: No, I need to see a couple months of this before I’m a believer.