FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 8/16/16

by Paul Swydan

August 16, 2016

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01

Daniel Carroll: The visitors score three in the first, and as we go to the bottom of the first, the visitors are approximately 80% likely to win by Win Probability, but a portion of that 80% includes situations where the home team hits a grand slam in the 6th and the visitors still come back to win. Is there any way to tell what the probability is that the visitors will never relinquish the lead?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Wow, uh, probably, but I’m not sure that I’m the person equipped to tackle that equation. Jeff?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, doing 2 runs is somewhat easy

9:04	Ray: Peralta or Didi ROS?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Survey says it’s a wash – http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rfangraphsdc&team=0&lg=all&players=l28959

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Close …. Didi. If it really matters look at strength of schedule

9:05	Paul Swydan: At this point, oddly, I’d go with Didi, because I can count on Didi playing, whereas Matheny seems to have a new idea about his infield every other week. You know, because Matheny is a moron.

9:05	Patrick: Drew Pomeranz – where has his cutter gone? I’m a Red Sox fan and heard a lot about his new third pitch he added in SD, and I’ve barely seen it in Boston.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Where have all the cutters gonnnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeee?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Pitch fx has him only throwing 64 all season to start with, so it wasn’t a major pitch for him any way

9:07	Paul Swydan: Not sure, to be honest. The key is that he’s pitching better.

9:07	Art Vandelay: Dansby Swanson being called up already? I get that he’s got pedigree but he’s not exactly raking in AA at age 22.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: His regular fastballs had a higher swgStr%

9:08	Paul Swydan: Counterarguments – 1. He could be getting bored, and might need the challenge. 2. There’s no reason not to, if the Braves believe he’s the future.

9:09	carrotjuice: Why aren’t there NERD scores anymore? I WANT NERD SCORES!

9:09	Paul Swydan: Calm down, Carson is just on vacation. They’ll re-appear soon.

9:09	Patrick: Do you see Blake Swihart as the 2017 Red Sox everyday catcher, or Dombrowski selling low on him this winter?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Give the nerd, Carson, a break

9:09	Paul Swydan: If you’re asking me to pick, I’ll say the latter, but I think he’ll probably end up back in Triple-A again.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: No on Swihart, Isn’t he out this year. I think they will get a verteran framer

9:10	Tom: Team(s) with best 2019 outlook?

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Cubs

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Red Sox

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: The Indians … maybe. Not sure on their pitchers’ contracts

9:11	Paul Swydan: Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves, Yankees, Phillies, Rockies, Brewers, come to mind.

9:11	Paul Swydan: And then St. Louis and San Fran also always find a way to be good.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Phillies because they are about to reload

9:12	Mike: What should the mets do with conforto? Play him until he adjusts?

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, yes, YES

9:12	Paul Swydan: Yes. He is an everyday player and he should be playing every day. That he hasn’t been is quite a shame, and a big reason Collins needs to be fired.

9:13	Josh R.: Predict what happens next with the Dodgers starting rotation. Whatever was wrong with Maeda’s arm finally flares up? Kershaw makes it to the 5th inning of a rehab start onlyu to take a liner off his face? Bus crash where only the pitchers all break their arms?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I think probably the bus crash. It’ll probably look like this:

9:13	Paul Swydan:

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: They are a mess, but ask for it with the pitchers they signed

9:14	Murdoc: Who has the most work to do for 2017 and beyond: A’s, Twins, Rays, or Angels?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Definitely the Angels.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Angels by a long ways

9:15	Zonk: Death, Taxes, Robin Ventura getting fired. Are these 3 certainties in life?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no. I think the White Sox got off to a hot start that wasn’t really indicative of the quality of their team, and the front office probably knows that pinning it all on Ventura would be unfair. So, unless they need a scapegoat, no, I don’t think he’s definitely gone.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Taxes …. Ventura would just be the escape goat. The Sox are just not talented enough

9:16	Zonk: Do the Mets have to make the playoff to save Terry Collins’s job?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I think so, yes. Collins doesn’t even know how fast his players are.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably. He is messing up the stuff a manager can’t mess up, especially who is does or doesn’t play

9:17

Da Bum: The lights go out. The darkness sets in. Slowly people begin to creep out, looking, searching, desperately trying to find someone, anyone, to reach out to in the dark. A hand stretches out in the dark, edging closer, seeking anyone, anything to grasp and hold onto. Suddenly, it happens. The awkwardness is untenable. You can’t let it go. You sheepishly cry out into the dark, “Alright, who grabbed my ass!”

9:18	Paul Swydan: Well alright.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Why cry, just let them keep grabbing

9:19	Apple Pie: How often do you answer the same questions every week?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Me …. rarely it seem. Less so after the first month

9:19	Paul Swydan: Eh, I think you all do a pretty good job of coming up with new questions. There are periods of time – March, July, December – where the questions can sometimes be repetitive, but those are to be expected!

9:19	Cracker Jack: Would you or any of the FanGraphs team please write an ‘Amateurs Guide to Scouting’. Highlighting specific things to look for during games both watched on television and in the stands? For example, how to do prep work, where to sit at a game, things of that nature.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I’ll pass that on to Eric, it sounds like a fun topic.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: I had a sort of one a year ago

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.hardballtimes.com/creating-a-draft-ranking-with-my-2015-rankings/

9:21	John: Dombrowski excluded, how many future GMs do you think were at Saber Seminar? This includes speakers, attendees from teams, students, and anyone else who may have been there this weekend.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Just start and you will find out how you mess up

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Well, most likely only two a year.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on the visiting team

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well, there’s this guy who brings his two sons every year, I think the oldest must be 10 now. Those kids are definitely going to be GMs someday.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think one of them won the Effectively Wild email raffle, actually.

9:22	Patrick: Tyler Anderson – what is he in the future? #3 starter realistically? He’s impressed me a lot in his time with the Rockies this year.

9:24	Paul Swydan: I think #3 is in the realm of possibilities, yes. Between Gray, Chatwood, Bettis and Anderson, the Rockies actually have a decent SP base now. They just need to figure out the bullpen, and find one more competent starter. Shouldn’t be too hard of an offseason task, actually.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I have not looked at him, but he is on my short list. Ask me next week if I haven’t written him up for MF&R

9:24	Roger: Should Raisel Iglesias start or close? Or should he be the next version of Dellin Betances?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Start, but his health may not let him

9:25	Paul Swydan: August just wrote about this today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-reds-have-a-raisel-iglesias-decision/

9:25	Paul Swydan: I would like to see him start.

9:26	carrotjuice: If Mike Trout was a Pokemon, which one would he be?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Whichever the best Pokemon is. (I don’t play Pokemon)

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Whatever that fish flapping on its side evolves into.

9:27

Kevin: Mookie Betts can dunk at 5″9, can solve a Rubik’s Cube in under 2 minutes, and has bowled 7 perfect games. Do things like this – a sort of overall aptitude at all sorts of athletic and mental endeavours – ever factor into scouting a player, or is this more the type of thing that becomes exposed after the fact and confirms what we already know – that this guys a great athlete

9:28	Paul Swydan: Well, first, it should be noted that bowling alleys aren’t really where you go to find superior athletes. Having said that, yes, I think this is the sort of thing that scouts look for as they build relationships with a player’s family and coaches.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said

9:29	John: What could the Mets get for Bartolo Colon if they tried to move him in a waiver deal this month?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: AAA bullpen arm

9:29	Paul Swydan: Mostly salary relief, but perhaps a couple of A-ball prospects.

9:30	Moose: Felix, Paxton, Iwakuma. What’s the playoff order for the M’s rotation?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I like your optimism, Moose.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Not Paxton

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: hurt

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Iwahuma and then Felix

9:31

Kevin: How come so many Japanese pitchers are able to limit walks compared to American/Latin pitchers? Is this an instance where we are seeing the cream of the crop only, or is there some sort of tangible difference in coaching/player development that could be present between MLB Organizations and Japanese teams?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Velocity. American pitchers are throwing out of their shoes.

9:32	Paul Swydan: I think if you read Jeff Passan’s book, “The Arm,” you will quickly realize that there are innumerable differences between the ways that Japanese and American pitchers are trained/developed.

9:32	Darius: Pirates are going to sneak into the playoffs aren’t they?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry

9:33	Paul Swydan: I mean, would it be sneaking? Their WC odds are exactly the same as Miami’s: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=wc&date=current

9:33	Apple Pie: Where does Beltran go in the offseason? What’s his contract look like?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: $4M to DH for the Rays

9:34	Paul Swydan: I would think that this is probably it for Beltran, but if he stays in the game, it would almost certainly have to be with an AL team where he can DH.

9:34	YouBettsYa: Mookie just hit another one out. This has to be his ceiling right? There can’t possibly be room for growth can there? Is this just his imitation of J.Ellsbury’s career year, or do you think he may be able to sustain this type of production moving forward?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think he can sustain this type of production moving forward. He’s only 23.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think people will stop challenging him like Dave wrote about in his article today

9:36

Bill: Hope this isn’t too much league context, but I have Urias ($5), Reyes ($1), Snell, ($3), and Bundy ($1) in a 16 team roto, 5×5 (OBP replaces BA), 5 keepers, keep 3 years, with salaries escalating $10/year ($500 cap). 5 keepers, but keeper slots are tradeable, so teams that went all in to contend, or otherwise have few good keepers can trade keeper slots during the year, or after, and I can accumulate up to 8 (they re-set after each auction), though I may or may not do that because of cost. There is also one minor league slot you can keep players in indefinitely, as long as they are in the minors, and it doesn’t use of one of your keeper slots. I currently have Moncada there. I am likely to keep Odor (for his second keeper year at $25-500 cap), and Sano (21, second year), and at this point Kepler (he’ll be $11). I also have Hernan Perez who looks like he could be worth keeping.Of the group of young pitchers, who do you see as good keepers, given the 3 year cap, innings caps, etc

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Whoa

9:37	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t keep Hernan. I would keep Urias, Reyes and Snell.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Also, that is by FAR the most context we’ve ever received in a dynasty question. Well done.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul, but I would go Bundy over Snell. I like what Bundy is doing now

9:38	Guest: Bregman has arrived!!!! First MLB HR!!!!!!

9:38	Paul Swydan: Welcome!

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: About time, he has been a drag on my AL-only team

9:39	Genghis Cohen: When you’re differentiating between a top of the rotation starter, a back end starter, and a possible relief pitcher, at what point does Penis Size become a consideration?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Um, never. But thanks for checking in with us on that.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: I didn’t know penis size was a proper term?

9:40	Jim: Could the Mets have gotten Frazier or a similar prospect had they moved Jeurys Familia at the deadline?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I don’t think Familia is as good as Andrew Miller, if that is what you’re really getting at.

9:41	Paul Swydan: Mookie did it again.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not even close

9:41	Paul Swydan: I mean, that pitch was RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE.

9:41	Paul Swydan: At least make him earn it, Brad Brach.

9:42	Charlie: Does the Red Sox’s lack of developing pitchers concern you even with the strong free agent class of 2018?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Absolutely. It was a huge blind spot for the team under Theo and Cherington, but at least they made up for it by signing world class hitters.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they are going the right route with concentrating on hitting and deal with pitching later

9:43	Paul Swydan: Agreed, but it would be nice if the team could develop one competent pitcher every now and then.

9:43	Aunt Jessie: Can you give my giants fandom a hug?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Giants will be just fine.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: No …. they can wait 90 years for their next WS after they won 3 recently

9:45	YouBettsYa: GFD…Mookie just took Brach deep. This is not a question, but WTF. As a lifelong Orioles fan, but a bigger fan of baseball, I just cannot believe Mookie. He’s out of his mind right now.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: How about throwing the ball off the plate some.

9:45	Paul Swydan: He is indeed. 5 homers in 3 games. I’ll allow it.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Yeah. 90 mph two seamers that come right down the middle are not much of a challenge for most hitters.

9:46	jv: Choose one player to throw back in an OBP keeper league.. Rizzo $47, Altuve $41, Segura $1, Bryant $25, Pederson $10, Blackmon $15, Stroman $1, Edwin Diaz $10, Betances $1, DeGrom $15. M. Fulmer $10. I can only keep 10.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Blackmon or Diaz. Or, if you really need the cap space, I guess Rizzo.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Diaz

9:46	Paul Swydan: Gotta hang on to Altuve.

9:46

bananastand: Do you think that teams should be more open to prospect for prospect swaps? Teams could trade off a position of strength towards a position of weakness, especially in the case of prospects who are near the big leagues. Also teams could accelerate their timelines by trading guys farther away for a lesser but more immediate impact player without it being a short term play.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I thought some teams would trade hitters (Cubs) for some pitching/MLB prospects.

9:48

Paul Swydan: They probably should be, but when you draft/sign a player and bring him up through your system for 3-5 years, it’s pretty crushing to see that player traded. You accept it if it’s for a star player, but I think front offices would be more hesitant to make these prospect for prospect trades simply due to human nature. Which, frankly, is understandable.

9:48	Minty: Has Javier Baez actually improved, or was he just hot for awhile and is now evening out?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I think overall his process has improved. The K% is way down, his ISO is up, and he is putting up the same wRC+ he did last year but with a BABIP more than 70 points lower.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I see his value all over the place since he relies on power and has strikeout issues.

9:50	Apple Pie: Thoughts on David Phelps this year?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I think we will likely be a #4 to #5 for a while

9:51	Paul Swydan: Leaning career year, but he has cemented himself in the rotation for another year at least.

9:51	NOT Carson Cistulli: If Carson Cistulli was the GM for a Major League team, over/under 5.5 championships for said team?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Under. He’d probably only win 4.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Who cares, think of the Q&A at Saber Seminar.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Or just the daily media sessions. They’d be epic.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Or, I guess a GM doesn’t talk daily. But still.

9:53	Apple Pie: Will Saber Seminar ever be in another city besides boston?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Can’t miss TV

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:53	Paul Swydan: I sincerely doubt it.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Not sure why you’d want it to be in another city. It’s already in the best city in the country!

9:54	Kevin: Why is catcher so thin? Something systematic, or a function of the thin margins of elite talent at the position?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I think these things go in cycles, 1, but 2, it’s also the hardest position, so it stands to reason that it would be the hardest to find talent for.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I think teams are quickly to move players off C. I think Harper would still be a catcher 20-30 years ago.

9:55	Moose: What will be the team with the longest playoff drought from today on?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Angels. Perhaps the Twins. Jury is out on them until they hire a good GM. Hopefully they can manage that this time around.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Rays … no money in a tough Division

9:56	Paul Swydan: Braves are in the mix, as are, as Jeff said, the Rays.

9:57	Paul Swydan: I really have no idea what the Rays’ plan is. Both this year and last year their goal seemed to be to get to 75 wins.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Angels at least have money

9:57	Paul Swydan: True.

9:57	Apple Pie: Can you guys do a thumb war, and the loser has to write an article about an exciting Angels prospect?

9:57	Paul Swydan: No, because Jeff is stronger than me and I don’t want to write about any Angels prospects.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Who did they draft first

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Sadly one of favorite scouts works for the Angels

9:58	Paul Swydan: See, Jeff knows people with the Angels, he should write it up. No thumb war needed, boom!

9:58	Dirk Hayhurst: Did either of you read the 9/11 Seinfeld episode? If so, what are your thoughts on it?

9:59	Paul Swydan: No, I’m not familiar with this.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not my thing

9:59	Minty: What do you think happens when Mookie quits getting poorly located/planned pitches?

9:59	Paul Swydan: His walks and stolen bases will go up.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Walk more, always had good rates