Goodbye To The Greatest Walkless Streak We May Ever Know

In retrospect, it was inevitable. Monday night, Bartolo Colon did what once looked to be impossible and drew the first walk of his major league career. The all-time leader in plate appearances without drawing a single free pass stepped to the plate in the fourth inning against Diamondbacks pitcher Robbie Ray and seven pitches later the history books were rewritten.

It was a bittersweet moment for me. Seeing a 43-year-old player achieve something on the baseball diamond for the first time is always thrilling, but this achievement also brought an end to one of my favorite streaks. In June, I wrote about Bartolo Colon’s record-setting game in celebration of an accomplishment I’d actively watched develop for months. The problem with records like these, however, is that it takes just one plate appearance to undo everything. Ben Revere had an incredible stretch with zero career home runs… until he didn’t. Bartolo Colon had an incredible stretch with zero career walks… until Monday. One of these days, Matt Albers and Ryan Webb may even draw a save and put an end to their remarkable streaks.

During Colon’s record-setting game — his record-setting plate appearance, to be even more precise – he provided a hint that this record would not be long-lived. The previous (and now current) record holder was Tracy Stallard whose career ended with zero walks in 258 plate appearances. When Colon tied Stallard’s record, not only had he never drawn a walk, he’d worked just six three-ball counts over those 258 plate appearances. So, naturally, in the record-breaking 259th PA, Colon worked a full count.

As it turns out, the impeccably timed three-ball count wasn’t a mere fluke, but instead was indicative of a significant shift in Colon’s approach at the plate. In his first two seasons with the Mets, Colon posted a 51.6 Swing% which was the 95th highest among 546 batters with 130+ plate appearances. This season, his Swing% has plummeted to 41.2% which ranks 446th among 517 batters with 40+ plate appearances. Although his Contact% has also dropped from a bad 63.5% in his first two seasons to an atrocious 48.5% this year, going from a guy who swung too much and rarely made contact to a guy who swung rarely and hardly ever made contact was enough to set up the inevitability of a base on balls.

Since setting the record, Colon has worked another three three-ball counts (including Monday night’s walk) which gives him four three-ball counts in his last 24 plate appearances or one in 16.7% plate appearances– a tremendous increase over the 2.3% rate over his first 258 PA. The increased patience heavily foreshadowed the walk which, at long last, Robbie Ray made a reality.

As coincidence (or the realities of the modern schedule and universal five-man rotations) would have it, Colon and Ray squared off last Wednesday, five days before the walk which brings us here today. In his first at bat of the night, Colon battled Ray to a 3-2 count and, true to his new modus operandi, he showed that he was willing to take the walk. If Ray wanted to keep Colon and his blistering speed of the base paths, he was going to have to do the heavy lifting and throw a strike past Colon and the bat firmly glued to his shoulder. Ray was up to the challenge.

On Monday night, however, the showdown had a different ending. Let’s start with a broad overview of exactly how this all went down. Here’s the full strike zone plot of the historic at bat courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

Every single one of those pitches was a mid-90s fastball. This was Bartolo Colon at the plate, after all, he of the career -50 wRC+. If the home run in San Diego has caused any pitchers to be even moderately more cautious with Colon at the plate this season, Robbie Ray is clearly not among them.

The first fastball missed high and Bart wanted no part of it:

However, the second pitch brought out the Bartolo Colon who has so endeared himself to the baseball-loving public — the big man with a terrifically violent hack:

There was some speculation by the SNY broadcast booth that Colon may have hurt himself on this violent swing, but he was not deterred. He took the next fastball off the plate inside to run the count to 2-1, before fouling off two consecutive inside fastballs down the third base line. With the count 2-2, Bartolo was one false start away from bringing an end to his run at walk #1.

The next fastball sailed well inside on Bartolo who had no problem keeping bat to shoulder:

Finally, the moment was here. For the tenth time in his career, Bartolo was one pitch away from a walk and, this time, he stuck the landing.

The pitch didn’t miss by much, just an inch or two above the top of the zone. It left me wondering whether or not 2014 or 2015 Colon would have had the plate discipline necessary to layoff the pitch and take his free pass. This is one of the most fascinating and underappreciated aspects of Bartolo Colon’s late career, in my opinion — at age 43, he’s still improving and not just on the mound. No one expected him to be any sort of offensive threat when he signed with the Mets, but he’s worked hard on his hitting and now has a major league home run and a walk to show for it — which is a heckuva lot more than most professional hitters can say of their age 43 seasons.

Congratulations, Tracy Stallard. Your record has been restored. It must be noted, though, that Colon has simply moved from one record to the next. Do you know who now holds the record for most career plate appearances for a player with one walk or fewer? Bartolo, of course.