FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 8/25/15

by Paul Swydan

August 25, 2015

4:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff is travelling home from Saber Seminar tonight (did you go to Saber Seminar? If not, go next year!!!) so you’re stuck with just me. Come back at 9 pm ET, and we’ll talk some baseball, or anything else you’d like to talk about! See you soon!

9:04	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! OK, let’s do this.

9:04	Comment From Jasper How much of Joc’s struggles should be attributed to a .218 2nd half BABIP?

9:07

Paul Swydan: Obviously a good bit of it. His BB and K %s have remained basically static. But the drop in his BABIP doesn’t explain the drop in his HR rate, and it’s also a little weird how he’s going oppo more often (11% more often). He’s not as good as he was in the first half nor is he as bad as he has been in the second half, but there is a good chance he is going to be streaky like this.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Also notable is that his soft % was 14.9% in the first half and it’s 31% in the second half.

9:07	Comment From Ol Sea Capn I have a tough keeper question – Do I keep the hot-lately Reisel Iglesias or trade him high? He’s really cheap ($3) and I can trade bigger names like TWalker, McHugh (both at 10x cost) and the bat Maybin. 14 teams obp league.

9:09

Paul Swydan: I think that if you’re just looking at what these 3 pitchers have done, you’d see no reason to take the more expensive pitchers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

The question is do you think Iglesias will keep it up. His SwStr% and his Contact% both indicate that he can maintain his K rate, so I say roll the dice with him.

9:09	Comment From Quong I’m a little worried that deGrom might be injured…hasn’t thrown his slider much, and wen he has it has been ineffective. Also last night

9:11	Paul Swydan: Quong is right – deGrom has been flashing his slider way less in August: http://www.fangraphs.com/st… He’s also been featuring his 2-seamer more, and his changeup more. It could be that he’s hurt, but it could also be that he’s just trying different stuff right now.

9:11	Comment From Carney Trying to persuade my league to dump W/L cats next year. Pitching cats are currently W,L,K,SV,HLD,ERA,WHIP. If we swap QS for W what is a good candidate to replace L?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Do you NEED a candidate to replace losses with? I would submit that you don’t. But if you do want a negative category to replace it, I would go with home runs allowed, since you’re already counting walks allowed in WHIP.

9:12	Paul Swydan: or maybe HR/9 or HR/FB.

9:13

Comment From Ryan
The Dodgers recently have used their financial resources mainly to pay other teams to take overpaid players (e.g., Kemp); to take on expensive players that other teams no longer want (e.g., Rollins); or to absorb high salaries in exchange for also receiving quality, cost-controlled players (e.g., the Alex Wood deal). That obviously hasn’t worked out as well as it might have this year, so do you think this off-season we’ll see more traditional flexing of their financial muscle in the FA market (e.g., signing Cueto, Price, etc)?

9:15

Paul Swydan: Wait, which deal hasn’t worked out? I think the Dodgers are over the moon to have Grandal. Maybe the Rollins move didn’t work out so spectacularly, but what exactly were their other options? Also, I’m not sure how you’re already declaring the Alex Wood deal a bust.

Having said all of that, they’re going to have to pony up (again) for Greinke this winter, and I would expect them to do so. Beyond that, we’ll see, they don’t have a ton of holes.

9:15	Comment From Urkel Who would you prefer ROS Cashner or Tyson Ross (IP, QS, K/9, ERA, and WHIP)?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Ross, mainly because he’s the better pitcher.

9:15

Comment From Ryan
Assuming for the sake of argument that the MVP must come from a playoff team, who is your pick in the NL? Rizzo has the highest WAR of playoff-team position players, but he trails Kershaw considerably in that stat. Then again, Kershaw isn’t even if the most valuable pitcher on his team if we instead look at RA9-WAR or WPA (that honor goes to Greinke).

9:17

Paul Swydan: I mean, from a team CURRENTLY in the playoffs if the season ended right this second? Rizzo or Kershaw or Greinke, sure. Or that McCutchen fellow. But there’s still a pretty good chance that the Giants or Nationals snag a spot, and then Harper or Posey would be in the hypothetical discussion. It’s still too early for that kind of thing, is what I’m saying.

9:17	Comment From Rick Which of the Reds’ many rookie starters has shown the most signs of long-term promise over the last month or so?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Definitely Iglesias. http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:17	Comment From Guest Is Miguel Sano going to be basically Adam Dunn that can play a passable 3B? He is seemingly a three true outcome guy that hits the ball really really hard.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Could be: http://www.fangraphs.com/le… Could also be that Sano is a much more gifted hitter. But we’ll see. We need to see what his true talent BABIP ends up being. I think it may be higher than Dunn’s .286.

9:19	Comment From Rick Who would you take in Rangers-Yankees wild card game? And who would you start if you were the Yankees (assuming you had the chance to set up the rotation in advance)?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Yankees, because of the bullpen.

9:19	Paul Swydan: I would make it a bullpen game. You always make it a bullpen game.

9:19	Comment From Matt I planned on going to Saber Seminar, but found out my 23 year old twin sister has cancer instead 🙁 Cancer sucks. At least my money was going to the Jimmy Fund.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Oh, I’m really sorry to hear that, Matt. I hope it was detected early enough that she will have a good chance at beating it.

9:20	Comment From Guest Is Manny Machado underrated given his age and the fact that he is coming off major knee injuries?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I think he’s more underrated because people really still don’t pay a ton of attention to the Orioles.

9:21	Comment From David Sir, please talk about Rougned Odor being flippin awesome

9:22

Paul Swydan: Before the season, I had Odor locked up at $5 in my keeper league. When they sent him down, I dropped him. He was hitting so well at Triple-A that he got snagged on the wire before he got called back up, and I missed the chance to get him back. This vexed me. He’s been real, and he’s been spectacular.

9:22	Comment From Eric Given his bounceback performance and a skillset that should age well, would any team take on Votto’s contract or will it be a obstacle in a Reds rebuild?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Both. Some team will trade for him if the Reds put him on the block, but the only way they get back something of value for him is if they agree to eat all the money on his deal, and they’re simply not going to do that.

9:23	Paul Swydan: But honestly, the biggest obstacle to the Reds’ rebuild is not Joey Votto’s contract, but rather Walt Jocketty’s. He should have been fired months ago.

9:23	Comment From JJJJShabado Past or present, game show you’d most like to be on and game show you think you would be the best at?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I’m tempted to say Supermarket Sweep, but it’s been so long since I saw it I don’t remember the rules. Probably for both the answer is The Price Is Right, just so I could (potentially) hear “IT’S A NEW CAR!!!!!!” in person.

9:24	Paul Swydan: That’s a good question though. What does everyone else say????

9:25	Comment From Pikachu The Top 5 in WAR does not match the Top 5 in WPA. Which one is wrong?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Neither one is wrong, they’re measuring different things.

9:25	Comment From Guest As Someone who didn’t expect it to be this extreme, now that Donaldson probably has a 50/50 shot at MVP, could that be one of the worst trades in recent memory? Has an player ever been traded prior to an MVP season with years of control left?

9:26	Paul Swydan: The judgment on that trade really depends on how good Franklin Barreto turns out to be. If he isn’t at least a 3 WAR player for a number of years, then yes, it will look really bad. But we don’t know that yet.

9:26	Comment From SeaHotDog I’ll follow that up with what the hell do I do with Puig in a 10-team, keep 5 league? His regression is uuuuuuugly.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, you need to hold on Puig. You’re not going to get value for him, but you can’t dump him either.

9:26	Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist? Ben Zobrist’s contract? 3 years 60 mil? Panda, Shields, Porcello, Hanley all got approx 20 mil on 4 year deals. Zorilla is older, but better, than any of them.

9:28	Paul Swydan: This seems reasonable, particularly if he shows well down the stretch. If he follows recent trends though, he’ll probably want more than three years. Off the top of my head, perhaps Chase Headley’s deal is a good comp – 4/$52M.

9:28	Paul Swydan: In other words, he may take more years and less money.

9:28

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist?
Kershaw vs Trout in the WS. Full count. Trout fouls off his 5th pitch. Trout fouls off the 10th pitch. The 15th. The 20th… At what point should Mattingly call for an intentional ball? Stupid question, but whatever. At what point is a fast baserunner allowed instead of wasting like 2 innings worth of pitches?

9:29	Paul Swydan: A smart manager would probably call for it somewhere around the 20th pitch, because at that point I believe the balance has swung way toward the hitter. But I wouldn’t expect Don Mattingly to make that call until around the 35th pitch.

9:30	Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist? The no wammy’s game was rigged. Some guy figured out the sequence. If this guy could solve the sequence, I’d like to think I could too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…

9:30	Paul Swydan: No. Way. How did I never know this?

9:30	Comment From Merv Throneberry Bring back Celebrity Bowling…my dad actually invented it.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Well alright.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Parrot!

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’m refusing to watch NESN tonight, so I have Jays-Rangers on instead. The Rangers announcers are about as boring as paint, but at least their execs didn’t two-time them.

9:31	Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist? Gut instinct: Better defender, Kiermaier or Andrelton?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Andrelton, because shortstop is harder to play.

9:31	Comment From Guest Would a potential Puig-young Met’s pitcher trade make sense to some extent?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Maybe next year, if the Mets let Cespedes walk, which doesn’t sound very intelligent but I still expect them to do it anyway.

9:32	Comment From The Dude Shelby Miller has a great ERA-, a good FIP-, and a terrible record. Will his record be held against him during arbitration this winter? His Dudeness requests an answer!

9:33	Paul Swydan: I’m sure the Braves will try to use that against him, yes, but historically speaking, the things that move the needle most in arbitration are games started and innings pitched, and it’s going to be hard to mess with Miller on those accounts.

9:34	Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist? Asdrubal Cabrera getting a QO this offseason? Currently at 105 wRC+. Since May 1, .279/.325/.452 good for a 115 wRC+. Since June 1, .306 /.345/.489 and a 132 wRC+.

9:36

Paul Swydan: He has been better this season, and by WAR this in fact his 4th-best season with a month-plus to go. Still, he is only making $7.5 million this season, so the qualifying offer would more or less be doubling his salary. I’m not sure that makes a ton of sense, but the offer wouldn’t be the worst thing, esp given the current state of shortstoping.

9:36	Comment From ngozi What does Forsythe have to offer in 2016?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Well, he has a few things going for him. He’s still cheap, and with the drop in his K rate, he’s about as efficient as you could ask him to be. He plays good defense at second and third, and is capable of filling in at the other infield spots. Frankly, he’s got a lot to offer.

9:38	Comment From Merv Throneberry So the new rumor is Urias might make his MLB debut as a reliever in September?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I think Mattingly came out and said today that that wouldn’t happen.

9:38	Comment From Guest Speaking of Cespedes, what is the deal with him become an elite defender after leaving Oakland? I imagine it isn’t really the park change.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Well, to be fair, he was a pretty good defender in his second year in Oakland. If you look at his defensive record, the season that looks out of line is his first season.

9:40	Paul Swydan: And to be even more fair, that first season is when he was asked to play more center field than he has since. 432 innings in center in 2012, and just 267 innings there from ’13-present.

9:41

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist?
Matt Moore: ? The Rays have Cobb, Archer, Smyly, Odorizzi, Karns, Erasmo, Blake Snell, and Taylor Guereri (The last 2 have to be added to 40 man this offseason). Is Moore most likely in the bullpen, traded, ? It’s an absolute mystery to me what to do with someone so talented, but gets slower and wilder every year.

9:43

Paul Swydan: It’s tough. Normally you’d say they want to trade him because he’s about to get expensive, but he signed that deal that pays him just $5 million next year and then just $7 million for each of the next 3 years (or low buyouts if they don’t want the options). So, it might make more sense to trade someone like Cobb, who has been hurt and is not locked up to a long-term deal.

9:44	Comment From Pete Betts, Puig or Buxton? Who you got in 2016 and forward in roto?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I think Betts. I trust the Red Sox to play Mookie everyday, and to value his contributions as they do. I don’t trust the Dodgers to do the same with Puig, and I don’t know that Buxton is a valuable fantasy contributor.

9:45	Comment From Roger Re Ryan’s Q: I think he meant the Dodgers deals haven’t worked because they are barely in a playoff position despite a 300 mm payroll

9:47

Paul Swydan: Well, I understand that sentiment, but I don’t think it’s because of those trades. I mean, Grandal has been their third-most valuable position player, and when you factor in that WAR doesn’t properly account for catcher defense and that Grandal has good catcher defense, he might be their best position player:

http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:47	Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist? Is Deez Nuts a viable choice as president of the US?

9:48	Paul Swydan: He’s just as viable as the rest of the people leading in the polls right now.

9:49	Comment From The Dude Tulo has struggled for the Blue Jays so far in the lead off spot. Does moving him to middle of the line-up (say 5th) , and bumping Revere up to 1st help Tulo’s offensive output? You know, because the Blue Jays aren’t scoring enough runs as it is.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I actually kind of like Tulo in the leadoff spot. I don’t think moving Revere up to the leadoff spot and moving Tulo back to fifth is a net positive for that lineup, certainly.

9:50	Comment From cornflake5000 Lindor! F Yes!!!

9:53	Paul Swydan: Lindor by month: June – 63 PA, 49 wRC+ July – 112 PA, 114 wRC+ August – 103 PA, 146 wRC+

9:53	Paul Swydan: That’s what you call trending in the right direction.

9:53	Comment From Zonk Does Dexter Fowler get a QO? Is he the best option for the Cubs CF in 2016?