FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 8/9/16

by Paul Swydan

August 9, 2016

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	M.O.: People don’t talk about Josh Donaldson enough. He’s awesome. Any reason for lack of coverage?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I mean, he’s been tagged in four FanGraphs posts since May 11. How much more coverage should he receive?

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know. Sometimes the best player are the least interesting … at least for me.

9:03	Paul Swydan: In the general media world, people aren’t going to talk about mid-market teams that aren’t awesome, and the Jays are mehhhhhh this year.

9:03	mike: i’m concerned about cleveland. are you concerned about cleveland? what is going on in cleveland?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t say I’m concerned because they’ve already exceeded my expectations for this season. If they come back a little bit that wouldn’t surprise me too much. Especially with Brantley’s latest setback.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Not really, but the race has got a little more interesting.

9:04	M.O.: Not specific to fangraphs (re: Donaldson) obviously

9:04	Paul Swydan: Ah. Well thank you for that.

9:04	Grole: How could the Rockies make the postseason?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Releasing Scott Oberg would be a good start.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Play better baseball than the best of league?

9:06	Paul Swydan: But realistically, 2 of the 4 teams ahead of them for the wild card — the Mets and Pirates — seem to be trending down. If they can pass them, then they’d really be in the hunt. It’s not inconceivable. Unlikely, but not inconceivable.

9:06	JD15: Should pitches per at bat be more important stat? The more pitches a player makes the pitcher throw no matter the result makes that result more valuable, right? Is this counted in any more overarching stats like WAR?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Intuitively, you’d think so. But any time I’ve actually looked to test it out, it hasn’t measured up as anything important.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Also, it really depends on the bullpen. I used to like to see Royals’ starters at 100 pitches in the 5th because I trusted the bullpen more than the starters.

9:07	Carlo: Arenado, Story, CarGo, Dahl, Blackmon plus SP and full yr of Ottavino…Rockies are NL West favorite 2017?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Favorite is a stretch, given the resources available to the teams in LA and SF, but the Rockies are definitely going to garner a little more respect next year, especially if Gray and Anderson finish the year strong.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: First they need more than Otta in the bullpen to make it Colorado. And they need more than couple above average starters

9:09	Name^3: Will the DBacks end up in last, or is it still the Braves, and when the DBacks do get last how long until they trade the #1 overall pick to the Braves?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Burn.

9:10	Jim Lonborg: Do you see anything in Bryce Brentz? I don’t like the approach, and I feel like on a team that’s been great at developing young outfielders quickly, he’s the obvious negative outlier.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: The D-Backs are just horribly run.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know a lot about him, sorry

9:11

Paul Swydan: I think he’s a good replacement level bat. Capable of an 80-85 wRC+. That can be valuable when a rash of injuries hits, as it did when Chris Young and Blake Swihart went down. But he should never stand in the way of a better player, like Benintendi, for instance. Fortunately it seems like he won’t.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: He should be a Royal with that K/BB rate

9:12	WM11: I read alot of these chats and the consensus seems to be about 1/5 of submitted questions are answered. I don’t really have a question but submitting this has to increase my odds.

9:12	Paul Swydan: It did indeed!

9:12	TengoPreguntas: What’s your take on Tommy LaStella’s failure to report to Iowa?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I think he’s probably trying to force them to trade or release him, and I can’t say that I blame him, to be honest.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Smart if he wants to watch any baseball. Too many blacked out games.

9:13	Paul Swydan: He’s hitting too well to be sent down.

9:14	Paul Swydan: On the other hand, the Cubs have a lot of good players. I’m sure they would prefer to keep him as an emergency option, but La Stella’s 27 and probably deserves to go somewhere where he can play more regularly.

9:14	Ed: In a 16-Team OBP league, should I use my #1 waiver spot on Alex Reyes, or should I save it for Gurriel?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Ooohhh, well I guess it depends on what your pitching needs are. I believe Craig Edwards said the Cardinals are going to use Reyes in relief, which should strike fear in the heart of every baseball fan, since Mike Matheny just might be the most incompetent successful manager ever.

9:15	Paul Swydan: It doesn’t sound like it’ll be too long for Gurriel though. He made his Double-A debut tonight.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Reyes, there are no guarantees on Gurriel. I think I would wait and see if you can use it on someone else.

9:16	Billy from CO: Votto/Desmond for Stanton/Nola in an OBP dynasty, which side wins?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Hard to trade Votto in an OBP league. He literally has the 15th best OBP in major league history: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=14,d

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Stanton’s. I think I would take just Stanton for the other two

9:17	Paul Swydan: If you limit the time period to the time since the color barrier was broken, Votto is fourth in OBP – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1947&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=14,d

9:18	Paul Swydan: If you believe in Desmond’s resurgence even a little bit, I’d hang on to Votto/Desmond.

9:18	Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:19	JD: 4 years of my JBJ for 4 years of Taillon plus non keep Sale. Thoughts?

9:19	Paul Swydan: If Sale is going to put you over the top for the pennant this year, do it. If not, stick with JBJ.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: This is close. I am not sold on JBJ in fantasy. He is better real life than fantasy. Really based on needs

9:21	Jim Lonborg: Surgery for Swihart. Does that make an offseason trade out? Is he a Pawtucket left-field in 2017, at least until trade deadline time, or is catcher still a possibility?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think if they are not able to trade him this winter it’s a clear message that he no longer has any trade value, and we can put him out of our minds. Unless the Sox put him back behind the dish, it would appear his Red Sox career is over.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: A huge disappointment so far in his career.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Sort of. He had a lot of help on the way to disappointment from John Farrell, who jerked him around as best as he could.

9:23	vztaxes: So, does the impending end to Prince’s career, due to injury, mean an insurance claim for the Rangers or are they on the hook for all future salaries?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I read that the Rangers’ insurance policy on him covers 60% of his remaining salary.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Not sure if that is confirmed or if it will BE confirmed, but if true, that’s great news for them.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know his contract situation and I thought the Tigers were paying some of it.

9:24	The Kid: Should Dan Warthen be considered a threat to young arms? “Hold the ball like this and throw it hard as shit.”

9:25	Paul Swydan: I think pinning things solely on Warthen would be grossly unfair, as for the most part he is just marching to the beat of the team’s drum.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Anything the answer is “Throw hard as shit”, there is a threat to anyone’s arm.

9:26	Kevin: how many teams are starting a centerfielder worse defensively than all three Red Sox outfielders?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Oooh, good question.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure, the Padres probably

9:27	Paul Swydan: 2 or 3 probably

9:27	R: In auction leagues, is it ever a good idea to keep one player over another because he’s a better value? Or do you want to always keep your best players assuming they are below or at market value.

9:28	Paul Swydan: That is an awesome philosophical question. Unfortunately the answer is that you need to balance it out. You can’t just keep a bunch of $1 players if they’re not going to be really good players, and you can’t always keep a bunch of $50 players just because they’re awesome.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: This is a tough question because all teams are keeping valued players, the price you will pay for non-keepers sky rockets. I usually try for my best values on $20 or more players

9:30	Josh: Is it weird that Hill is currently penciled into start on Friday without having thrown a bullpen or thrown off a mound in a month?

9:31	Paul Swydan: No because he couldn’t pitch because of the blister issue. Also, as far as I’m concerned, I’m not banking on him pitching until he’s pitching. He was supposed to start a couple of times now and couldn’t go because the blister hadn’t healed.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Note – Benintendi is 3-for3 tonight.

9:32	Jays Fan: A 64-49 record is mehhhhhhh? You have quite the high standards!!!

9:32	Paul Swydan: I do indeed.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Jeff will be back in a minute.

9:33	trackvoice: When infields shift, do all/most teams just move everyone left, or does it vary by teams? Tigers seem to move 3B to deep 2B at times

9:33	Paul Swydan: It definitely varies by teams, and it mostly involves whether they shift over the 3B or SS.

9:34	Paul Swydan: And then also where the players shift to. As the guys from BIS noted in last year’s THT Annual, some teams do the full Ted Williams shift, and some teams don’t.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Varies a ton. The Royals love the SS behind 2B

9:34	KurtThomas: Keep 10 roto league: Chapman + Myers (and a rental player for the team in the race) for K. Byrant, who wins or is it a fair swap?

9:35	Paul Swydan: In my opinion, the team that gets Bryant wins that trade by a lot. Especially since we don’t know where Chapman will pitch next year.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I love the Bryant side

9:35	Paul Swydan: Chapman is probably less dependent on his team than most relievers, but if he say, signs with the Padres or Braves or something weird, he might not get as many save opps.

9:36	cheese: Is kazmir opting out? 2 for 32 left.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Given this winter’s market, I think it’s likely he opts out, yes.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Normally, I would say no, but like Paul said, this year’s pitching market is going to be crazy

9:37	gee: Is there any data available to see which teams have the best fielding fans.. on foul balls, home runs and such?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: None I know of

9:37	Paul Swydan: No but you should bug Tango and Petriello about that. It seems like the sort of thing Statcast could track!

9:37	Paul Swydan: Or at least the ball boys/girls.

9:37	Barves: Can you explain to me why Braves fans still hate the Markakis signing? Team is way under budget and isn’t he worth 11MM per year? Trade chip to a contender in the offseason?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Because he’s terrible and they’re only keeping him around so that Tony Clark and the PA don’t yell at them for not spending enough money on major league players?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Well, maybe not terrible, but the rest is true.

9:38	Jim Lonborg: I gather you’re not a big Farrell fan, Paul. Is it Lovullo in ’17 no matter what?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Oh no, they’re doing too well now to fire Farrell in a vacuum. He’ll have to have a Grady Little moment to get fired.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Or the team would have to collapse.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: There is hope, Ned Yost got fired with a 1st place team

9:39	Kevin: follow up: which outfield would you rather have long-term – Red Sox or Marlins?

9:39	Paul Swydan: That’s a poll question!

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Red Sox for me. Bend’s potential make the difference

9:41	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Red Sox, but I’m biased.

9:41	Jordan: what do you see Mondesi’s ceiling as? He has great tools, I’ve seen people saying his ceiling could be Jose Reyes in his prime

9:42	Paul Swydan: Well, it’d sure be nice if he’d draw a walk. 41 plate appearances isn’t the record, I don’t think, but he’s gotta be getting close.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: High K’s, Low power, no BB’s. He needs to do something offensively.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Given Jose Reyes’ lack of plate discipline at 20 though, the comparison is apt. For now at least.

9:43	Tengopreguntas: Kyle Hendricks article plz

9:44	Paul Swydan: Neil Weinberg wrote one on 6/2, but you’re right, it’s probably time for another. Dave is on vacation this week. Might let him do it when he gets back. He loves Hendricks.

9:45	Barves: Who wins a home run derby, Michael Jordan or Tim Tebow? We can move the fences in like they do during celebrity softball.

9:45	Paul Swydan: JORDAN

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Tebow right now. Give Jordan a month or two to work out, it may be him

9:46	Paul Swydan: haha

9:46	Michelle: Can you tell me anything good about the Dbacks? Anything at all…

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: You have a really good first baseman signed to a decent contract.

9:47	Paul Swydan: They still have Paul Goldschmidt. Jake Lamb has been great this year. Jean Segura has been a pleasant surprise. They were smart to trade away what few pieces they didn’t need for the rest of 2016-2017. Yasmany Tomas hasn’t been a total disaster. And they still have Zack Greinke.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Buried it.

9:48	confused about most things: Question that may be boring for everyone but me: is offering Bregman, Benintendi, & McCullers fair for Bryant in a dynasty?

9:48	Paul Swydan: That’s probably more than fair, yes. I’d start with just one of the B’s + McCullers and see if that gets it done.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Fair, but I like the three side especially if the league is really deep

9:50	Tengopreguntas: It was reported that lastella would retire if traded. If that’s the case, I’m not sure he’d really want to be released or traded.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Oh, I’m sorry, I hadn’t read that. Then….yeah, I’m not sure.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he wants to play in the majors and doing his hardest to keep the dream alive

9:51	Crusty Juggler: Would you rather have August’s hair or Eno’s hair?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Like, if I had to KEEP one of their hairdos? Definitely Eno’s. It’s amazing how much hair August actually has in that bun. It seems like a ton of effort to take care of it.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Eno’s. I pretty much have the same hair, but I cut it.

9:52	Paul Swydan: LOLOLOL

9:52	Baba Yaga: If you had to set the Cubs playoff rotation, where do you put Hendricks? He doesn’t have the big name or big salary of some of the other Cub starters, but as the saying goes….all he does is get guys out.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Well, you can never tell what they’ll do because Joe Maddon is always going to be too cute by half, but cuteness aside, they’ll probably line it up as Arrieta-Lester-Hendricks-Lackey. If the team they’re facing is especially right-handed, maybe they move Hendricks ahead of Lester.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: #3 or #4. Might depend on the match up

9:54	Defectation: Any wild guesses about what Gurriel will be able to do this season?

9:54	Paul Swydan: After watching Rusney and Soler not live up to their billing and Abreu’s slump this year, I’m out of the Cuban player forecasting business, sorry.

9:55	Paul Swydan: But I did pay good $ in Ottoneu for the privilege to find out, so I’m just as curious as the rest of you are!

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I have 0 expectations. And how about Guerro (sp?) for the Dodgers

9:56	Paul Swydan: Right. And Puig’s been demoted.

9:56	Crusty Juggler: Have the same hair as Eno?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

9:56	Paul Swydan: That might be a slight exaggeration, but there is definitely a bit of curl in Jeff’s hair.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, it can curl quite a bit.

9:57	Coach: Who goes off the board first in next year’s fantasy drafts: Mookie or Rizzo?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Tough. Mookie is definitely going to give him a run for the money, but Rizzo delivers more of the “first round” hitter traits.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the Mookie types as I can find 20 HR power at the end of the draft, but 20 SB guys are gone.

9:59	Cybo: Trevor Story is a __ rounder in fantasy for 2017?

9:59	Paul Swydan: 6-8th?