FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/15/15

by Paul Swydan

September 15, 2015

6:18	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET for all of your baseballing questions, including but not limited to just how much Jeff is panicking over the state of Johnny Cueto. See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this.

9:01	Comment From Brad Paul, as a red sox fan, do you have a twinge of disappointment that new Yankees stadium is so dull. It used to be sold out all the time and loud.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: and the Yankees were dominant with players every knew and loved.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Well, I take comfort in the fact that when things are really important, the Stadium will be filled. I expect a wild card game there to be absolutely awesome TV.

9:03	Paul Swydan: But yes, it’s a little sad that they can’t fill it up every night. To Jeff’s point, it’s been a little bit since they had that kind of team on the field.

9:03	Comment From anon Keep 6 in H2h points: Betts, Sano, Cespedes, Springer, Peralta, Bogaerts, Correa, Wong, Gomez, Scherzer, Kluber. Hitting worth a lot more than pitching.

9:04	Paul Swydan: 1. Sano 2. Correa 3. Betts 4. Bogaerts 5. Springer 6. Cespedes/Gomez (lean Cespedes)

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Correa, Betts, Sano, Cespedes (I would look to sell high if possible), Scherzer and ???????. Springer

9:05	Paul Swydan: You have a lot of premium bats there.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: No on Bogaerts, the other would be 1-3 round talent.

9:05

Comment From Nick
I was looking at positional leaderboards today and noticed that it does not take into account only that players performance at that position. For example, addison russell has his entire season’s stats under the 2B leaderboard when he has played about 1/3 of his innings at SS. Is there an option to see the stats put up only at that position or is this not available? Thanks

9:06	Paul Swydan: Yeah, if you want a guy’s stats at just the position in question, you choose that position from the splits field.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: In the splits page right?

9:06	Comment From losing+my+roto Have you gents started to formulate a list of targets for your leagues next season?

9:07	Paul Swydan: For next season? No, not yet.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: A little, in an insanely deep industry league, I am picking up possible setup men like Hoover to be a closer.

9:08	Comment From Yo Knows Best Anthony Rendon seems to be finally knocking the rust off after a lost first half. Can he deliver top 5 2B value to end the year?

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: In two weeks, hell anyone could be a top 5 player at a position.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Having said that, yes, he can.

9:09

Comment From Ryan
Chris Davis seems like one of the harder free agent contract to predict. His 2013 and 2015 have been good enough that he’ll be looking for a sizeable contract, but his 2014 was worrisome, and most of the big market teams are already set at first base. Where do you think he lands, and for how much?

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Seattle, they can never have too many 1B/DH types.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I do think it will be an AL team, maybe Tampa will pony up.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think definitely an AL team. I was just going to say Tampa.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Too slow.

9:11

Comment From Nolan
Brandon Phillips has been worth 2.3 WAR and has a modest 2-year 27 million dollar commitment left on his contract. Can the Reds trade him this off-season and install Suarez at second base? It would be nice to save the money on Phillips’ contract when the Reds aren’t competing, to say nothing of getting a potentially decent prospect back.

9:12	Paul Swydan: The problem with this line of thinking is that it is too logical. With Jocketty’s apparently safe, you can leave all that logical thinking at the door. The Reds are contenders, baby!

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably, I have done a deep look into FA needs and the supply of talent. I could see the Angels a possible fit.

9:13	Comment From Ryan Which would be the best pitching matchups to watch in the wild card games? Tanaka-Hamels? Keuchel-Price? Arrieta-Liriano? Lester-Cole?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I like the lefty on lefty Keuchel-Price. Lester-Cole comes in a close second.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: The AL game IMO.

9:15	Comment From The+Dude To quote Kent Brockman on Cueto, “Is it time for Royals fans to crack each other’s heads open and feast on the goo inside?

9:15	Paul Swydan: That;s a quality Simpsons-related question right there. Bravo, The+Dude.

9:15	Paul Swydan: To answer your question, yes, yes I do.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Most Royals fans think the Twins will over take them within the week

9:16	Paul Swydan: Yeah, but what do YOU think, Jeff???

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the 100% playoff odds that this cool website, Fangraphs.com, has for them.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Pfft, odds.

9:17	Comment From Ryan What do the Rockies do with Reyes this off-season? It seems like playing in Colorado should have given him a chance to showcase any remaining offensive talent, but that obviously hasn’t happened, and I find it hard to imagine they could trade him for much.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I thought they would move him immediately after the trade. I think they will take whatever they can get for him.

9:20	Paul Swydan: I think the Rockies are just going to hang on to him.

9:21	Comment From Alex Opinion on the Braves rebuild?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I think that they’re unnecessarily tanking so that they can be good when they’re unneccessary new ballpark opens, so on the one hand, I don’t think much of it. On the other hand, they seem to be going about it in the right way, so that’s good.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Olivera needs to be a 4 Win player with what they gave up. Otherwise, it has been fine. Really tough to tell right now, but we will know in a couple of years.

9:24	Comment From Rick Which playoff contender is in the worst shape for 2016?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Yankees

9:25	Paul Swydan: If I’m allowed to count the Angels, I’ll say the Angels. If I can’t, then probably the Mets.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Aging team with huge questions about the rotation. The Royals could be in rough shape also with Gordon leaving.

9:26	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Watching Canadians whip themselves into a frenzy over the Jays is a sight to behold. Bandwagons are underrated.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Easy now, Sgt.

9:27	Comment From Alex Chris Davis a fit for the Braves?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree with Sarge, the wagon is still going strong in the KC area

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: No on Davis. Would he just be a PH?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, because they have Freeman.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Anyone got a link to crazy foul ball by Blanco?

9:28	Comment From Guest In your opinion, who’s a better player; A healthy, quick Mike Trout or a healthy, agile Tulo?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Uh, Trout. Tulo’s pretty good, but Trout may be one of the best five players of all-time.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Trout

9:29	Comment From Sad+Reds+Fan Is there any hope for Jay Bruce

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe for a dead cat bounce. He just needs to stop the free fall

9:30	Paul Swydan: Yes, one of these years, he’ll have another season with a .320+ BABIP and look like a star again. He won’t be, but there’s still that hope.

9:30	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Damn it Paul if bandwagons raise my social status for a couple months what’s wrong with that? It’s all I have.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Oh, nothing. I think I maybe read your comment the wrong way initially.

9:31	Comment From Guest Side question, does anyone here also play MLB The Show?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I haven’t played a baseball video game since MVP Baseball 04.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Damn, that was a long time ago. I played the hell out of that game though.

9:32	Paul Swydan: I still don’t even have a PS4. I’m so lame now.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, I happily waste a few months playing OOTP a few years back, but that was it.

9:33	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Yeah, I was saying I LIKE it. I love how the whole country is enamoured with the Jays. Except that the Donaldson shirseys are sold out. I don’t like that.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I like it too. Also, I saw a girl at Fenway with a Donaldson shirsey on last week. She probably bought the last one. Sorry.

9:33	Comment From padresfan do you think Matt Kemp and continue his good play long term?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: No, no I don’t for health reasons.

9:35	Paul Swydan: And also, he hasn’t been that good. His season line is 0.5 WAR and he is hitting only 10 percent better than league average. Have to think the Padres were hoping for way better than that.

9:35	Comment From Sad Reds Fan Seeing Duvall hitting this wall so far, is the Leake deal gonna be worth it?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure what the Reds really expected from Leake. I still think the trade was fair.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I mean…no, probably not. The Reds didn’t get a ton for him. Which makes sense, since he isn’t that good.

9:37	Comment From a Paul, before the season I asked you about JA Happ and you gave a less-than-optimistic reply. Has your stance on Happ changed? The projection systems have him in the 3.6-3.7 ERA range now.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Let’s say he definitely has my attention now. Lefties always get more chances, and Happ is taking advantage this year. Good for him.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: He has improved, but he is still JA Happ

9:38	Comment From Dr. Hoist Is joe kelly cuttable after tonight? Had some hopes he would produce in the playoffs for me.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Yeah you can cut him.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, BTW, I finally got around to creating projections for the next weeks pitchers. We will roll it out Friday or Sunday

9:39	Comment From Nolan If you could be an MLB player but couldn’t be a star or even a regular starter, what would be your preferred role? Left-handed specialist? Backup catcher? Fourth outfielder? Long-reliever/spot starter?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Pinch runner – that what speed do

9:41

Paul Swydan: Very cool Jeff!

As for Nolan’s question, I think fourth outfielder. I wouldn’t want to be a pitcher, ever. And if I’m a utility infielder, I have to talk to all the idiot baserunners, and pretend that I’m paying attention to the coaches. And the shifting, my god the shifting! I just want to stand in the outfield and chew a big wad of gum. Is that too much to ask?

9:41	Comment From The+Dude Who’s the ace of Chicago? Sale or Arrieta?

9:41	Paul Swydan: With all due respect to Jake Arrieta, it’s Chris Sale.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Speaking of Chicago, super smart Joe Maddon let Lester lead off the inning, even though the Cubs could REALLY use an insurance run. Not smart IMO.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Sale, no arguement

9:43	Paul Swydan: RE – Sale, check out who is #5 on this list: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:44	Paul Swydan: Pretty decent.

9:44	Comment From The+Dude Will an Astros Rangers rivalry lead to civil war in Texas?

9:44	Paul Swydan: If Jade Helm couldn’t do it, probably nothing can, but here’s hoping!

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not at all

9:46	Comment From Dave Never up late enough to read the after dark chat, just wunna say you guys are awsome! My Blue Jays are gunna hold on to the division lead right? Getting more the nervous the closer the finishing line approaches.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Thanks Dave! I think so. Toronto has played them well head-to-head, and that is the most important thing.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Enjoy it

9:47	Comment From Rick Who pitches in the KC rotation in the playoffs and in 2016?

9:47	Paul Swydan: One for Jeff.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Cueto, Ventura, Voquez/Duffy/Medlen. It is going to ugly IMO especially with the bullpen not at 100%

9:49	Comment From Min Do the Jays catch the Royals to take home field advantage throughout the playoffs? (keeping in mind they hold the tiebreaker)

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:50	Paul Swydan: I’ll also say no. Though I did think about it for a minute.

9:51	Comment From Dr. Hoist Playoffs start next week in my h2h league. If medlen starts this Sunday is he droppable in 10 tm dynasty if I need the streamer spot? He would be a $1 keeper for next year.

9:51	Paul Swydan: I def think Medlen is droppable in that scenario. Or most other scenarios. I wouldn’t worry about him being a $1 keeper, because he won’t go for more than $2-3 in your draft next year. You probably can get him back for the same $1.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Drop him and try to win the championship. Worry about ’16 after the playoffs

9:52	Comment From Guest Do you think that WPA/LI is a good stat for determining who the MVP should be?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I think in matters of WPA, I always listen to Studes (aka the guy who invented WPA). And he likes a different stat for MVP. In fact, he wrote about it today at The Hardball Times! http://www.hardballtimes.co…

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Not really and I really just don’t care.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Jeff is so jovial, isn’t he?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Well, Lester finished his complete game, so I guess it worked out for Maddon. I still would have tried to get the insurance run.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Why doesn’t someone just play Caroline so we can all sing along.

9:55	Paul Swydan: It’s SWEET Caroline, damnit!

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Whatever

9:55	Comment From The+Dude https://www.youtube.com/wat…

9:56	Paul Swydan: I think The+Dude wins the chat tonight.

9:56	Comment From Blast Hardcheese What would it take for Arrieta overcome the Greinke for CY hypetrain? Another no-hitter? A perfect game?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Where is the drunk NYY version of the song

9:57	Paul Swydan: I think it would honestly just take a really bad finish from Greinke. I think Arrieta has done all he can do at this point.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: A Greinke implosion and Arrieta winning the division on the last day. But I think Kershaw is better than Arrieta at this point.

9:58	Paul Swydan: I mean, Arrieta has been reaching outtttttttttttttt, touching meeeeeeeeee, touching youuuuuuuuuuuuuu

9:58	Comment From The+Dude I got you covered Jeff. https://www.youtube.com/wat…

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks

9:59	Paul Swydan: End of the 3rd? Well, I guess you have to be sauced to watch the Dbacks, amirite?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Royals win, Jays lose

9:59	Paul Swydan: Oh ya, I remember this. This was actually super nice of the Yankees.