FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/27/16

by Paul Swydan

September 27, 2016

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01	Byron: So it looks like the Dodgers are going to let Julio Urias pitch in the postseason going past his innings limit. Thoughts?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I think that flags fly forever, and that innings limits are arbitrarily set by teams out of fear and not science. Let the kid pitch.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Not a huge deal, but I may start his spring training late next year

9:02	Aladdin Sane: Voted Kluber because the wording made me think we are assuming, for poll purposes, that he’d be out for the season.

9:02	Paul Swydan: No, I’m not assuming that, for the record. But perhaps I could have worded it better.

9:03	Stevil: Hello there / Boa noite. I’m going to ask what should be on every Mariner fans mind: who starts the one-game Wild Card match up for the M’s if they get in, Felix on short rest, or Paxton. I’m conveniently leaving Iwakuma out of the discussion.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is Iwakuma, but I don’t know how their rotation is set up. Get to the game first and then worry about

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: it

9:04

Paul Swydan: I think you do everything you need to do to get to that game, and worry about who’s available later. If I’m not mistaken, you get to set a different 25-man roster for that game than you do for the ALDS, so if you need to set a roster that includes 12 relief pitchers, you set one that includes 12 relief pitchers.

9:04	Carrotjuice: Would it be in bad taste for the voters to award Jose Fernandez the Cy Young posthumously? From a statistical standpoint, he probably has the strongest non-Kershaw case.

9:05

Paul Swydan: We were debating this internally. There was no clear consensus, and I don’t think that I have a clear answer either. On the one hand, you want to respect the process for the sake of history. On the other hand, Bob Welch and Barry Zito have Cy Young Awards that should belong to Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez, so sometimes history is ridiculously unfair.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: A little. I think voters should just assume he was shutdown early and judge from there. I think I would give him a bump if it was a close call with someone else.

9:06	Shaemoose: Is there anything to my quick estimations that pitchers with low fastball velocities have positive ERA-FIP? if you look at the bottom 20, only 5 of them have larger ERA’s vs FIP.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Jeff would know this better than I would…

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Most of those slower guys have low GB%, those are the guys who beat FIP with a link coming ….

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/use-ground-ball-rate-to-determine-when-dips-breaksdown/

9:08	Mariners 101: Do the Mariners have to win out in order to make the playoffs?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Probably, yeah. The good news is that if they can weather the storm against Houston, they have four gimmes at home waiting this weekend.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: They may, there problem is not the distance, but the traffic

9:10	Ceej: When a player, like Baez, is said to have fast/strong hands, what does that actually mean for hitting?

9:11	Paul Swydan: It means, I believe, that he gets the barrel of the bat through the strike zone quicker, and thus is able to better handle good fastballs.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: The are different. Fast means he can wait on the ball more and make his swing quickly and possibly adjust during the swing.

9:11	Paul Swydan: What Jeff said.

9:11	Bill Belichick: I can win in baseball too

9:11	Paul Swydan: Well OK.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably with Brady as a cleanup hitter

9:11	The Letdowns: So how can we ever trust Strasburg again?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Not sure, I haven’t trusted him for a long time.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: People should not have to begin with

9:12	Next Big Thing: Next season who will be the rookie callups who will dazzle us?

9:12	Paul Swydan: YOAN MONCADA.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Could be this season but veteran presents.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Presents huh? Everyone loves presents.

9:13	Dynasty Dilemma: Have an option to extend upto 4 years. Sale at $45, Thor $40, Gray $19, Jon Gray $17 and Aaron Sanchez $21. Any of them worth it or should I throw back to auction?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Standard reminder that if you want to ask us dollar- or round- based questions, that we can give better answers if you include your salary cap / # of rounds, etc.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: None of them I think

9:14	Paul Swydan: I mean, who knows, right? My answer would be a lot different if it was a $600 salary cap…

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: True

9:15	HankLloydWright: How stupid were the Blue Jays to start a bean ball war resulting in two injuries when they are in the midst of a wild card battle? Follow up: Will MLB ever do anything to stop this sort of thing?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I believe that’s what they call natural selection. The Blue Jays just selected themselves out of being in prime position for the postseason with their stupidity. And no, as we’ve said before, you can’t legislate stupid. Stupid is, unfortunately, as stupid does.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Stupid. It could wait until next year. MLB will do nothing as long as no one dies. Fights attract eyes.

9:16

Jim Lonborg: A few questions about the Red Sox backup catcher situation: 1. How much of Sunday’s night strikeout-fest should be credited to Vazquez? 2. Is the backup catcher horse race pretty much Vazquez by a nose over Holaday, with Hanigan a length behind? 3. If Leon doesn’t start hitting a little more this week, could there be a more even split in catching duties than usual? I am remembering how much Ross caught in 2013, though of course Leon is surely superior defensively to Saltalamacchia so it’s not strictly comparable.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Hi Jim. 1. Some, but not as much as to Sam Holbrook, who had a wide zone. 2. No, Pete Abraham wrote today that he thinks it’ll still be Hanigan, and he is better plugged in than I am. 3. Yeah, the barn door is ope n now. Farrell loves those veteran presents.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Did we really get a backup catcher question?

9:17	Paul Swydan: These are the kinds of questions you get when your favorite team is in the playoffs, Jeff.

9:17	Paul Swydan: BOOM

9:18	Pinstripe Wizard: With the retirement of David Ortiz and the untimely passing of Jose Fernandez, who takes the mantle as the game’s most nationally beloved player?

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Like the discussion on the final bullpen spot next weeik

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: last week

9:18	Paul Swydan: Beltre, Colon, Trout. For the record, I don’t think Ortiz was ever nationally beloved.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Colon is my choice

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Betts should be it

9:19	Paul Swydan: Oh ya, Mookie too.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Good call Jeff.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks

9:20	B.B. Rodriguez: Carson for President!

9:20	Paul Swydan: He would unequivocally be the best choice this year.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Better than our two current choices

9:20	Roger: Red Sox rotation next year consists of Price, Porcello, Pomeranz and . . . ? Has E-Rod shown enough to win a spot? Do they exercise their 13.5MM option on Buccholz?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: brb, getting kicked out of my spot

9:21	Paul Swydan: It’ll be Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, and Pomeranz/Buchholz

9:21	Paul Swydan: If Pomeranz is healthy, he’ll be the guy. If not, then Buchholz. His option is most definitely getting picked up.

9:21	Paul Swydan: If Pomeranz is healthy, Buchholz will be the 6th starter again.

9:22	Rufus T. Firefly: Would it be possible to add final 2016 MLB stats to the auction calculator’s databases? I’d love to be able to look at actual values for the season.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Duly noted.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Passed it along.

9:23	Rufus T. Firefly: Cubs vs. Red Sox in the WS. How hard is MLB rooting for it? I know I am.

9:23	Paul Swydan: I think they’d be just as OK with Toronto or Texas, since those are both huge media markets. Bigger than Boston.

9:24	Rufus T. Firefly: Why isn’t John Farrell resting Mookie? Isn’t the poor guy gassed? Why not give him 3-4 days off this week? Do players not like that?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I think you’ll see everyone get a breather once/if the Sox clinch the division.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Really depends on the player, but a breather will come

9:25	Paul Swydan: On the other hand, Mookie is trying to win MVP, and the ALDS doesn’t start until Thursday, so he’ll have a few days of rest no matter what.

9:25	Roger: How concerned should the Ms be about Felix Hernandez? Should they try to trade him before teams realize that he is borderline terrible now? (I wish that were an exaggeration, by the way, but Nate Karns has more WAR this year in 50 fewer innings)

9:26	Paul Swydan: I don’t think they’ll try to trade him. He has 10/5 rights now, so it’d have to be a trade he liked, and as such, the M’s wouldn’t get much for him.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: No is going to buy Felix now. I think he needs to try to get healthy and pull a Verlander. Stay OK, but not great

9:27	Paul Swydan: And I’m sure he can do that.

9:27	Trader Andy: Hey buddy. What’s your thoughts about andrew benintendi long term? Does he move up in the lineup next year? 280avg 12hr 15 SB next year?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I think there could be more power there, but something like this, yes. And I do think he’ll move up in the lineup. If nothing else, he should move up at least one spot with Ortiz’s departure.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is going to be a good player. I see a lot of early Beltran in him. Good rounded player, but not great at anything

9:29	Michael H: If Jose wins the Cy Young, will he be the first to win a season award after passing?

9:30	Paul Swydan: … I think so. I’m not sure, to be honest. Sorry.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I am guessing so, but I am not sure.

9:30	Jo-Jo Reyes: Freeman’s absolutely ridiculous right now.

9:30	Paul Swydan: That’s weird, I thought he was a baseball player right now!

9:31	Tony: Are we ready to board the Trea Turner hype train? 2nd round pick next year?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Second round pick…….maybe? Feels a little high. I could be talked into it, but suddenly there are a lot of high-level shortstops about, so it’s not as desperate of a situation as it used to be there.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, those steals will be huge in fantasy. Lots of good young players and I am not sure where he will fit in.

9:33	Vic Romano: Earlier today, a friend of mine told me that he prefers kit kats over reese’s peanut butter cups. Should I simply cut off all future contact with him and remove him from my life….or remove him from the face of the earth?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Nah, I prefer Kit Kats too.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Let’s go to a poll. It is almost Halloween, after all.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see someone like the crispiness, so no need to remove him from the earth. The rest is fine though

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I have always wanted to do a Halloween candy draft

9:35	Paul Swydan: We could do that, Jeff. Next week?

9:35	Vic Romano: Paul, you and your kit kats are an abomination unto the world.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Keep preaching Vic

9:36	Paul Swydan: Like being insulted is going to dissuade me from spreading my bad opinions all over the internet.

9:36	Llewelyn: What is the single best tool in baseball right now?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Kershaw’s command?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Jeffrey Loria

9:37	Paul Swydan: Hey, in Loria’s defense, at least he immediately did the right thing and retired Fernandez’s number. More than I expected.

9:37	kevinthecomic: n=12 on the kit kat question — it is now statistically significant.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Wait, how do you know our polls are statistically significant at n=12?

9:38	Jim: Do you see the Royals trading (in the offseason) Wade Davis to the Giants – for the royals, salary relief (and a few internal replacements), for the giants, a closer

9:39	Paul Swydan: Why the Giants? And why do the Royals need salary relief? Did Wal-Mart go in the tank recently and no one told me?

9:39	Paul Swydan: (No, is my answer, in case that wasn’t clear.)

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: The Royals need starting pitching, everyone needs starting pitching and Davis is not going to get the needed SP. Also, I think Davis is hurt

9:40	Carrotjuice: Paul, you watch the Red Sox a lot. fWAR and bWAR greatly differ on David Price (4.9 vs 3.2 coming into tonight). Which would you say is more accurate?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:40	Paul Swydan: fWAR. His K and BB numbers are pretty dominant. He seems snake bit this year for sure, but the talent is still clearly there.

9:41	Paul Swydan: Be interested in Jeff’s opinion…

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Looking at a few things … one sec

9:43	Paul Swydan: OK, while he’s on that.

9:44

Bad Commish: Thinking about doing a league next year where you try to finish last. With the caveat that you need to hit a minimum in every position (ie. Derek Norris would be the leagues best catcher). Any loopholes you could see? Who do you think would be this kind of leagues Mike Trout? My money is on Hechavarria (starts every game, does literally nothing offensively) Cy Young, James Sheilds?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I would expect his ERA over his FIP some since he is not at the ends of the batted ball spectrum. He struggles just a bit with runners on base. I think an average of the two values is about right.

9:45	Paul Swydan: This sounds awesome, assuming you do make a fairly high floor on all statistical categories. The strategy/loophole would be to find guys who suck but still play all the time. I think it’d be great because the waiver wire would be crazy.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Doesn’t BP do this and have rules for it?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Ultimately though, I don’t think I could do it. It’d be too depressing for me.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Do they?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: One time a team of just Phillies was winning it.

9:45	Grand Admiral Braun : Does Ryan Braun get moved?

9:46	Paul Swydan: I’d be willing to bet he cried at the end of “Braveheart” like every normal human being.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Called Hacking Mass, use their rules

9:46	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, Hacking Mass. But is that on a whole team level?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Oh, it is. Whoops. My fault.

9:47	Vic Romano: Assuming the Cubs don’t resign Chapman….do you think they make some kind of splash for another FA bullpen arm, or do they just sit back contented with the Rondon/Strop combo and see how the rest of the arms shake out in spring training?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I think now that the outrage about Chapman has died down that they’ll probably just go ahead and re-sign them. Teams won’t change until fan bases make them change, and Cubs fans (understandably) just want their ring. But I do think they would be fine with Rondon/Strop, yes.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they can sit back. I think some of the FA pitchers may be good bullpen arms. I think they also would be a good fit for some rehabbers like Greg Holland

9:49	Paul Swydan: I could see Melancon being a fit there.

9:49	Ryan: Both the Orioles or Rangers have overachieved this year, at least compared to Base Runs. Which is better set up to compete next year?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Oh Texas by a long shot.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Rangers, they are so loaded. I think they are going to rip someone off on a Gallo trade

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’m not discounting Baltimore’s ability to compete, but Duquette and Co. to a certain extent need to create a new team every year, whereas the Rangers have a much more stable core.

9:50	Ryan: Could Nelson Cruz go down as one of the best FA signings in, say, the last decade? He’s also contributed more value than his entire contract his worth, and he’s got two more years to go.

9:51	Paul Swydan: He could, sure. I think a lot of teams would sign him if they could do it all again, and he is a great reason why the MLBPA is going to try and get rid of or drastically modify the qualifying offer system this year.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure it is the best, but it is really good.

9:52	Tom: If you could pick one current rookie to have for the next ten years, who would it be?

9:52	Paul Swydan: If we are working under the boundaries of someone who extinguished his rookie eligibility this year, then Corey Seager.

9:53	Paul Swydan: But it’s a good question with a lot of different answers. Jon Gray and Trea Turner would be slam dunk answers in some seasons.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Seager right now.

9:53	Bill: Coming into today’s game, Felix Hernandez had 116 strikeouts and 63 walks. That has to be very concerning…. right?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, the best bad team for 2016 is (Hacking Mass leader):

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Carlos Perez First Base Yonder Alonso Second Base Omar Infante Third Base Adonis Garcia Shortstop Alexei Ramirez Left Field Daniel Nava Center Field Billy Hamilton Right Field Avisail Garcia Pitcher 1 Jered Weaver Pitcher 2 Yovani Gallardo

9:53	Paul Swydan: It’s definitely concerning. I’m just not ready to dig his grave and bury him in it just yet.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: His velo is down and Zone% is at a career, BB% career high, K% at career low.

9:54	Jimmy: If you could pick one current 30 year old for the next 10 years who would it be?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Gotta be Josh Donaldson, right? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=30,30&filter=&players=0

9:55	Paul Swydan: Price and Kluber and Lucroy all get consideration too, but I’ll stick with Donaldson.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe Blackmon, his D could hold up. Right?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Uh, maybe?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t bet on it.

9:57	Tom: Should KC non-tender Hosmer? And even if they should, is there any chance they do?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I would say there is probably no chance that they do.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: They won’t, but should. 2017 is the last year before a massive over haul of the team.

9:58	Vic Romano: Reese’s winning the poll right now, with 60% of the people being correct and the other 40% being varying degrees of insane.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Yeah but that poll is +/- 2 votes, so it’s still pretty close.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: 40% of people are insane? Seems low

9:59	Paul Swydan: Very low.