FanGraphs Chat – 10/9/13

Dave Cameron: Plenty to look back at from last night, plus looking forward to a couple of Game 5s over the next two nights. And, for the other 24 fanbases, we can talk off-season stuff. The queue is now open.

Dave Cameron: We’re on Jeff time today.

Dave Cameron: Sorry about that. Had to finish up the post on A.J. Burnett before starting.

Comment From Guest
Do the Rockies sign a big 1B/OF bat this offseason?

Dave Cameron: They already said Cuddyer is moving to first. My guess is they’ll make a trade rather than a FA sign. I could see them wildly overpaying for Cespedes.

Comment From Tristan
Kevin Towers says the Dbacks will look for a power bat in a corner position. Who makes sense? Nelson Cruz? Trumbo? Any other FA?

Dave Cameron: Which players do we know that spend their off-seasons as lumberjacks? Because that’s who they’d sign.

Comment From Brian
Who do you think has the advantage going into tonight’s Cardinals – Pirates game?

Dave Cameron: Cardinals, clearly. Home game with Wainwright on the mound.

Comment From Jim
any truth to “the more pitches a hitter sees the more dangerous he becomes”?

Dave Cameron: In the same game, yes? In the same at-bat, I’m not sure.

Comment From Dennis
Dave, although Dusty Baker’s managing was a big problem with the Reds, how much blame should the front office take with their lack of deadline moves to improve the offense?

Dave Cameron: Were there any real good right-handed outfielders who got moved at the deadline?

Comment From Greg
Cubs just signed Sweeney for 2 years with an AAV of 1.5 and a team option – that’s a really solid deal for them, right?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Cheap solid depth.

Comment From SK
What do you think the Rays could get from the Rangers for David Price?

Dave Cameron: A package that doesn’t include Jurickson Profar.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
Did Kevin Towers really fire his pitching coach because his pitchers didn’t retaliate for perceived slights enough? Is a statement like that something that should draw some sort of discipline? He basically made it sound like he would trade any pitchers that didn’t retaliate when it seemed appropriate.

Dave Cameron: If you haven’t seen the article yet, read this. http://arizonasports.com/42/1668458/Arizona-Diamondacks-GM-Its-going-to-be-an-eye-for-an-eye

Dave Cameron: I think MLB would be completely justified in asking the D’Backs to ask Towers to resign.

Dave Cameron: His comments are that stupid.

Comment From Justin
Thoughts on Cole starting over Burnett?

Dave Cameron: The differences between them are probably not huge, so I don’t think there’s a wrong choice here.

Comment From Nate
Reasonable expectations for Granderson’s contract?

Dave Cameron: I think the QO kills his market value, and he goes back to NY on a short term deal.

Comment From Reddickulous
Who should start for the A’s tomorrow? How short should the leash be? And who’s the first guy coming out of the pen?

Dave Cameron: Start Colon, have Gray warming in the pen early.

Comment From Greg
Would you have brought Kimbrel out for the 8th?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From howlingwolf
Hardy, Wieters, Machado, Chris Davis, Jim Johnson. The Orioles will have some tough decisions to make over the winter and the upcoming year. No way they can afford all–is J.J. the odd man out, or possibly Wieters?

Dave Cameron: Johnson is easily replaced. Shopping Wieters might not be a terrible idea.

Comment From Dan
seems to me Reddick makes that catch absent interference but since it was over the fence interference is allowed

Dave Cameron: It’s impossible to know if he catches it or not. I don’t think fans should be rewarded for interfering, but I’m not sure there’s a good solution either.

Comment From JEB
Off season stuff, screw that. Did you see the top of the 8th in Detroit last night?! My hearts still pounding. Awesome.

Dave Cameron: Scherzer’s change-up is pretty good.

Comment From Greg
What did you think of Maddon’s bullpen use yesterday? Obviously Hellickson was struggling, but why pull Moore after only 2 innings when he was pitching well?

Dave Cameron: Because pitchers do worse multiple times through the order.

Comment From SK
Given the ongoing saga of irrational, old school decisions this postseason – nothing more glaring than the Braves’ decision not to use Kimbrel for 6 outs, would it be smart for a team to consider having an on-field, in-game coach who specializes exclusively in analytics and can assist a manager? Couldn’t that be what a 21st Century bench coach does? Why don’t more well-run teams insist that their coaching staffs embrace evidence-based decision making?

Dave Cameron: Because there aren’t that many people in the world who are both good at evidencd-based decision making and can inspire a bunch of jocks to play hard.

Comment From Prich
Maddon handle last night correctly, pitching staff wise, in your view?

Dave Cameron: Yep. I probably wouldn’t have started Hellickson to begin with, but he made the right moves after that.

Comment From Greg
What kind of contract do you expect for Nelson Cruz this offseason?

Dave Cameron: I think he re-signs in Texas for something like 3/30.

Dave Cameron: Again, the QO is going to really hurt him.

Comment From David
Do you consider “The Royals Mortgage The Future To Be Mediocre in 2014” your best ever headline?

Dave Cameron: Probably the most memorable. That doesn’t make it the best.

Comment From Dee
If Verlander can pull off one more remarkable game 5, I think it’s safe to say that nobody will care about his slip-ups this season.

Dave Cameron: Pretty sure no one should care anyway.

Comment From JEB
This Oakland/Detroit matchup is turning into last years all over again. What are your thoughts for game 5? Think the Tigers will pull it off again, or is it the A’s turn?

Dave Cameron: Tough to bet against Verlander.

Comment From Marty
How would you use your pitchers tonight if you were Clint Hurdle?

Dave Cameron: Like Maddon did last night. Cole out at first sign of trouble, have Liriano and Burnett ready to pitch the middle innings.

Comment From Steve 1
See the Braves making any largish moves? They get a few players off the books but all the young guys are due for raises. And if Uggla does get traded, who is available for 2B?

Dave Cameron: McCann’s leaving and Uggla will likely be traded, so yeah, it’s going to be a different team. I think they’ll probably look for a leadoff hitter.

Comment From Daniel
Why did the Sox pitch to Longoria in game 3 with men on 2nd and 3rd? I would have fired Farrel after the game if I was GM, Smoltz was on TBS and he was shocked he wasnt walked as well. It was such an obvious/ no brainer move. Very confusing.

Dave Cameron: Walking the bases loaded is often a very bad idea.

Comment From GSon
New puppy here (3 days).. She’s 8 weeks old. We call her Pita… and has done her “business” one time inside the house in her three days here.. How is your puppy doing?

Dave Cameron: She was totally house broken within about three weeks. She’s gotten a lot easier now that we’ve decided to allow her on the couch (with a blanket across it). She thinks laying next to me while I work is the greatest thing ever, and it’s way easier than having her roam around the house looking for something to chew.

Comment From GSon
Kendrys Morales.. good chance, little chance, no chance of returning to the Mariners?

Dave Cameron: Very good chance. Mariners only team who think he’s worth big money.

Comment From GSon
Revisit the Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo trade.. Cashner has turned into the Ace of the Padres staff while Rizzo had a mostly unlucky / poor season on the Northside.. Who doesn’t want to make the trade again?. Who wants to give their guy a 7 year deal?

Dave Cameron: Much rather have Rizzo than Cashner.

Comment From Jeff
Who do you like more going forward: Miller or Teheran?

Dave Cameron: Miller.

Comment From Guest
Is pitchers using sunscreen to improve their grip something that is known and just accepted?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Jay
In trying to understand the decision to NOT bring Kimbrell into the game, I started thinking about what managers do all day and how involved GMS get for big games. When facing elimination, surely the manager has gone through at least some of the more obvious possibilities. “If it’s a close game in the 8th inning, I will do x” which suggests that not using his best reliever was part of the plan? Also, facing such a big game, if I were GM I don’t think I could resist checking in with the manager of my $100 million enterprise to make sure he will follow a logical path. Does this happen? Do you think Wren was on board? Is it really that hard to find good management?

Dave Cameron: It’s definitely an organizational discussion. They planned to use Kimbrel for four outs. I’m sure they have some reason why five is too many. I just don’t know what it is.

Comment From Dan
How can Leyland keep playing Cabrera at third when he can’t move? If they advance I can see Victorino and Ellsbury with a bunch of infield singles.

Dave Cameron: I continue to be amazed that teams don’t bunt the ball towards him until he just falls over and dies.

Comment From bdhudson
thanks for linking that scherzer article – great stuff

Dave Cameron: There is so much good baseball writing out there now. It’s really kind of incredible.

Comment From Logan
DAVID PRICE QUESTIONS. The Rangers for Profar+ makes sense for everyone, right?

Dave Cameron: Not the Rangers.

Comment From RDA
Is there an issue with the defensive metrics fangraphs uses for first baseman? Only 4 qualified players had a season with a positive defensive rating at first in the last 4 years.

Dave Cameron: DEF is not position specific. It is average compared to all fielders, not just the position he played.

Dave Cameron: First baseman, as a group, are below average fielders. It’s why they are playing first base.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Anyone live blogging the game 5s?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m doing tonight.

Dave Cameron: Someone will do tomorrow night. Probably Jeff.

Comment From J6takish
The rays tried the ’empty the bullpen for matchups’ last night and lost. Isn’t this idea a bit dangerous because using more relievers raises the chances that somebody blows up?

Dave Cameron: They held the best offense in the league to three runs. No, that’s a myth.

Comment From Kirsh
If you were Clint Hurdle tonight, would you look for a short outing from Cole (five innings or so) and then play for matchups and arm freshness with Mazzaro, Watson, Wilson, Melancon and Grilli? Or does Cole’s late-game velocity make that unnecessary?

Dave Cameron: Mazzaro wouldn’t take the hill tonight. Cole/Burnett/Liriano/Watson/Wilson/Melancon/Grilli.

Comment From JB
When examining player’s defensive abilities (using UZR, runs saved etc.) how many innings do you think is a significant enough sample size to fully judge a player?

Dave Cameron: As many as possible. There is no number at which you don’t need any more information. You always want more data.

Comment From GSon
Do you think that when the Tigers fail this year. Mike Illitch will make one more try by signing Robinson Cano to be the missing piece?

Dave Cameron: No, I think even he has his liimts.

Comment From Tom
To what extent, if any, do you believe Baker’s statements about Votto’s lack of RBI affected his firing?

Dave Cameron: I think the fact that Baker didn’t value Votto’s contributions were a big factor.

Comment From Greg
How wise is it for teams to spend upwards of 5 million per year on a manager? That money could be better spent on something else in the baseball budget, right?

Dave Cameron: The two budgets generally aren’t interchangeable.

Comment From Chess
Who do you think will end up with Garza?

Dave Cameron: Feels like he could be a fit in Baltimore.

Comment From Nick O
After yesterday, many A’s fans are fearing another heartbreaking game 5 loss. Please reassure me that we’re not snakebitten, and actually have close to a 50% shot at winning tomorrow.

Dave Cameron: You’re not snakebitten, but you don’t have a 50% chance of beating Justin Verlander. Probably more like 40%.

Comment From Lucky
Which team is getting the bad deal – Jordan Zimmermann for Jurickson Profar?

Dave Cameron: Rangers.

Comment From Jeff
Why do you “need to get to good pitchers early” when pitchers get worse as the game goes on? Follow-up: Why do teams want to up the pitch count on a pitcher? Leaving in the 6th instead of the 7th just means you have to face another fresh reliever throwing 100 (obviously not always true).

Dave Cameron: Yeah, these are old notions leftover from 20-30 years ago. The game has changed, and neither of these things is true anymore.

Comment From Shawn
Re: your answer to the Rangers not offering Profar, then do you think that that package would beat the competing offer (if it doesn’t include Profar). Or rather, would the Rays accept a package w/o Profar.

Dave Cameron: Texas’ system, after Profar, isn’t that great anymore. I think Price ends up elsehwere.

Comment From Andrew Brotherton
What do you think the Yankees do for their starting pitching situation if Kuroda retires? Josh Johnson? Bronson Arroyo? David Phelps?

Dave Cameron: Why would Kuroda retire?

Comment From F. C. Lane
I understand that defensive metrics are the least stable, but is there still issues with DRS, and how it accounts for shifts? Neil Walker is suddenly a +8 DRS, after being worth/rated negative runs for three years and his UZR is unchanged. Similar story with Pedro Alvarez, in the year the Pirates increased their usage of shifts from ? 100 to 400 plus. Is this not similar to Brett Lawrie or I am suffering from apophenia?

Dave Cameron: BIS stopped giving credit to shifted players for plays they make out of position.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Funny how the first two sets of playoff games were uncompetitive and kinda dull and then all of a sudden we get a bench clearing, a near no hitter, a walkoff homerun, a controversial fan interference, and a bunch of close games.

Dave Cameron: The last few days have been intense.

Comment From odbsol
Obviously it worked out, but do you think putting Scherzer in there to work 7th & 8th was the right call?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Guest
Should the Tigers consider Peralta at 3B, Miggy at DH and Martinez at C? They would improve their defense in LF with Dirks, and greatly at 3B at only the cost of Avila’s bat and game calling. I think it’s worth it.

Dave Cameron: Peralta at 3B, Miggy at DH, Martinez as PH.

Comment From Marty
Reading that article on Towers makes me more glad the Dodgers peed in that pool.

Dave Cameron: He’s really doing everything he can to make that franchise unlikeable.

Comment From Nolan
What do you make of Tyson Ross? Legitimate improvements leading to a solidified spot in the rotation, or just a half-year fluke?

Dave Cameron: In between.

Comment From Chess
Billy Beane cannot get his heart broken in 5 again, can he?

Dave Cameron: He can. Baseball is cruel.

Comment From Guest
What should I expect from Chris Tillman next year?

Dave Cameron: Regression.

Comment From Gabe
A friend of mine refuses to accept the fact that the Myers trade was majorly bad for the Royals. Given that Shields pitched well and they won 86 games, how do I prove him wrong?

Dave Cameron: Why do you need to? If you’ve made a rational case and he refuses to listen, that’s up to him.

Comment From Justin
The solution to fan interference in HRs is better stadium design. Raise the fence or put some space between them.

Dave Cameron: Pretty sure re-designing 30 stadiums isn’t the easiest way.

Comment From Marty
If the Rays tied it up last night, and the game went into extras, wouldn’t they have been kinda screwed?

Dave Cameron: No, they had Chris Archer hanging out.

Comment From AJ
Is there anywhere on this site that I can get good postseason stats -both traditional stats and relatively advanced ones like WRC+ or wOBA or WAR?

Dave Cameron: Yep, every players page has postseason stats. We don’t have WAR, though, because no defensive metrics for the playoffs.

Comment From Forsyth
Noticed the Red Sox have a 53.2% chance of winning the ALCS. Is that because they’re a better team than the Tigers and A’s, or is the fact that the Tigers and A’s have to play a game 5, and thus their rotations are a bit out of sorts have something to do with it? Or is it just home field?

Dave Cameron: Better team + home field.

Comment From Guest
Missed Reds’s acquisition: Marlon Byrd.

Dave Cameron: True.

Comment From Prich
Profar for Price straight up, with Price being open to an imediate, ‘Ranger-Friendly’ extension, Rangers still say no?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how friendly, but also no reason for Price to do that.

Comment From Catoblepas
Where does Price end up? Is there a reason everyone keeps suggesting Rangers?

Dave Cameron: Rangers have been trying to get him for a while, but I don’t think they’re the best fit anymore. I could see the Cardinals going after him.

Comment From Guest
I’m confused. you think trading Profar+ for Price doesnt make sense? Because Kinsler is playing 1B or OF?

Dave Cameron: Trading an elite young cost controlled talent for an expensive player with two years of team control is a poor use of assets.

Comment From MaddonsGlasses
It seems that argument about “more blowups” is silly. The reason you make so many changes is to catch blowups before they happen.

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From S-won
Which is more ludicrous- the A’s not bunting at all at Cabrera, or the Yankees not bunting at all vs Schilling in the bloody sock game?

Dave Cameron: Seems like teams owe it to themselves to at least try it.

Comment From Guest
Liriano is out for tonight evidently, read it somewhere that Clint said he gave everythig he had the other night and possible has flu. cnan’t find link

Dave Cameron: Well, that’s a bit of a blow, but Cole/Burnett/relievers should still be okay.

Comment From Marty
What’s the biggest difference between doing a podcast with Keri v Cistuili?

Dave Cameron: Jonah asks more baseball questions, Carson asks more questions about weird things I’ve never thought of.

Comment From Izzy
When will the contract crowdsourcing results be released?

Dave Cameron: Plan is to do them right around the World Series. We’re going to do about 50 players, then compile the results, and we’ll definitely have them out before FA starts.

Comment From Michael
I think the Angels are going to make a play for Cano. What say you?

Dave Cameron: No, they’re out of money.

Comment From Gareth
Dave likes Profar apparently……….

Dave Cameron: He’s good.

Comment From Forsyth
It’s always impressive when young kids show strike zone control, but do you place any more value on it in a pressure situation? I’m getting at Bogaerts last night, I was incredibly impressed by his K zone command, getting down 1-2 to McGee and working the walk, and then also working a walk against Rodney (less impressive). Says a lot about his maturity to be in that position and not swing out of his shoes, agree?

Dave Cameron: Yep. He’s very polished for his age.

Comment From Izzy
A lot of players weren’t given QOs last year and got deals significantly better than the QO. Will teams improve at offering them this year?

Dave Cameron: I think we’re going to see teams make QO offers to worse players, and we’re going to see at least one team get stuck with the guy.

Comment From ctTiger
more overrated skillset in today’s game for winning playoff baseball: hitting for power, or speed+defense

Dave Cameron: Dominant starting pitching.

Comment From kilroy
Thoughts on Morales reportedly rejecting qualifying offer? Is he going to end up very disappointed in March?

Dave Cameron: No one has made any decisions yet. It’s October. Scott Boras is leaking things to help his own cause.

Comment From Forsyth
Re: Pitch Count – You get the count up to get the reliever out and have a poor middle reliever throw in the 6th inning, plus you tax the bullpen for the rest of the series. I don’t think that part is an old notion.

Dave Cameron: Except teams don’t really have poor middle relievers anymore.

Comment From Mitch
Could the Cubs get price with a package built around Almora? CJ Edwards seems like a guy the Rays would like as well. Then a couple lower level guys like Paniagua and Candeleiro

Dave Cameron: Nope, more.

Comment From Prich
With an idea of keeping Cabrera heathy, would a smart offseason move by the Tigers be: Move V-Mart for a bullpen arm, look for a 3B option, move Cabrera to 1B, Fielder to DH?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they should have done that a long time ago. Martinez has basically no trade value though.

Comment From Gary
Re: Peralta at SS. His UZR (and to a lesser extent DRS) have been above average for more than a few years now but he still is hated by scouts/pundits for his defense. Do you think he’s tricking UZR or his defense is really that undervalued?

Dave Cameron: I think scouts/pundits aren’t always very good at assessing a fielder’s value.

Comment From Nate
Why do people find it hard to believe it is possible for a player to have a poor season defensively when they are normally very good or vice versa? It happens offensively too!

Dave Cameron: I have no idea.

Comment From person hscer
Any chance of “contributing readers” for tonight’s live blog, or did that almost get Dan “fired” and is never going to happen again?

Dave Cameron: It’s much easier to do with one game going on than two.

Comment From Izzy
David Ortiz has a very weak HOF case, right? Unless you’re giving him a ton of credit for postseason performance, he’s clearly behind Giambi and Berkman.

Dave Cameron: He doesn’t deserve to get in, but he’s got the fame points that writers love.

Comment From Loren
Do you think the qualifying offer is having more impact on FA salaries than the MLBPA thought when they agreed to it?

Dave Cameron: On some players, yes.

Comment From Matt
Hey Dave, I’m a Tigers fan and I hated the Prince contract the day it was signed and hate it even more now(I thought we would atleast get 3-4 dominant years from him), do you think there is any team out there that the Tigers could possibly dump him on without having to pick up a large majority of the contract? I think the Tigers would be much better off with Cabrera back at 1st, Castellanos at 3B and use all the money they would save on Fielder on other pieces that could improve the team.

Dave Cameron: No one’s taking that deal.

Comment From ctTiger
nick castellanos and rick porcello for David Price?!

Dave Cameron: Heh, no.

Comment From Prich
What organizational holes should the Rays seek to fill with a Price trade, or is that a horrible way of doing business?

Dave Cameron: Get the most talent you can in return, figure out where it all fits later.

Comment From Guest
“Trading an elite young cost controlled talent for an expensive player with two years of team control is a poor use of assets.” Who would STL possible have to trade then?

Dave Cameron: They have a ton of quality depth pieces. Could build something around a guy like Shelby Miller.

Comment From Mike
Also re: blowups: Straily pitched four hitless innings and then gave up a three-run bomb. Just because a starter is rolling doesn’t mean he, too can’t have blowups

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Is there a Dave Cameron Jonah Keri podcast somewhere and where can I find it?

Dave Cameron: I was on the Grantland pod with Jonah on Monday.

Comment From Ben
I think Howie Kendrick would be a great pickup that won’t break the bank or cost too much in terms of prospects, no? Does Toronto have enough?

Dave Cameron: Seems like he’s going to get moved for too little, yes.

Comment From Meano Eno
What the Rays did last night is basically what you advocated for in the WC games right?

Dave Cameron: Yep. It’s the future of elimination games. Teams will eventually make that the norm.

Comment From Izzy
Is Nelson Cruz worth an expensive contract? His Home/Road career splits are awful (.242/.299/.435 on the road) and his WAR each of the last 3 years is well below average for a starting player.

Dave Cameron: He’s probably the biggest free agent landmine out there.

Comment From 2BOrNot2B
Why is Brad Miller on every “future of the Mariners” list, and Nick Franklin on none? Franklin’s terrible August? (But small sample size; similar Septembers.) His defense? (But Miller’s isn’t great either.) History in the minors/college? (But Ackley.)

Dave Cameron: Brad Miller is way better.

Comment From Mitch
Couldn’t you make the argument that Miller is as good as Price right now?

Dave Cameron: Not unless you’re on drugs.

Comment From Guest
Sending Miller (young cost controlled) for Price would seem to be the exact thing you are suggesting is bad to do. STL doesn’t seem like a team that would do that. they would like have to add Adams and another young SP type too right? Not like the Rays would take Kozma. Y Escoabar also int he trade wold make a little more sense.

Dave Cameron: Big difference between young position players and young pitchers. Shelby Miller is good, but attrition rate of arms is so high that he could easily be nothing in several years.

Comment From TKDC
Do you think Cruz will get a QO? Take it?

Dave Cameron: Yes, no.

Comment From Tim
Why are there so many poor tactical managers?

Dave Cameron: Because a manager’s primary function is to lead human beings.

Comment From Guest
Re:Elimination game strategies — Does that apply to the truly elite starters as well, if Kershaw or Verlander 2 years ago is on the mound in the seventh and is pitching well do you take him out for a matchup or if someone gets on.

Dave Cameron: Depends on the match-up, relievers, and how many pitches they’ve thrown. But probably. Most playoff teams have 2-3 relievers better than any starter.

Comment From Jon Sullivan
If the A’s started bunting at Miggy tomorrow and he couldn’t handle it, could the Tigers slide him to DH? Or would he have to come out of the game?

Dave Cameron: You can’t move a guy to DH.

Comment From zmiko
Who will seriously go after cano besides the yankees?

Dave Cameron: It’s a good question, and I think it’s why the Yankees are letting him get to FA. I think they’ll end up re-signing him for around 8/200, but it will essentially be them bidding against themselves to an extent.

Comment From Jason
How are “Fame” points only something that writers love? Isn’t the Hall of Fame EXACTLY for players like Ortiz? Aren’t players like that why fans would want to go to the HOF? It’s not the Hall of Most Valuable Players.

Dave Cameron: That’s actually exactly what it is.

Dave Cameron: Okay, have to go get some lunch, but I’m live blogging the Cards/Pirates game tonight, so come back and hang out with me again in seven hours.