FanGraphs Chat – 12/18/13

Dave Cameron: It’s post-winter meetings, pre-Christmas. Because of the holidays, this will be my last chat for a few weeks, most likely. So, let’s make this one count.

Comment From Kevin Towers
With all the ridiculous moves I’ve made, why do I still have a job?

Dave Cameron: Because it doesn’t look ridiculous to an owner to get rid of a player coming off a bad year. Towers specialty of late is selling low on talented guys coming off poor performances.

Dave Cameron: Not hard to sell those kinds of moves, even if they’re not a great idea.

Comment From STiVo
I loved Zimmerman’s articles on hitter aging curves. How robust do you think the findings are, i.e., that “Chances are the [position] player is likely producing at his career-best [at the beginning of his MLB career]”? Great start… But a lot more work is needed, right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d tread carefully on conclusions. It could just be a blip.

Comment From Jason
Benoit deal. Whaddya think?

Dave Cameron: Fair price, but not sure why the Padres think they need a $7.5 million setup man.

Comment From Bret
The Jays have to be totally be bluffing when Anthopoulos says they can go into 2014 with Izturis and Ryan Goins as their second base combo, right? Right? Righttt?

Dave Cameron: Before last year’s meltdown, Izturis had actually been quite good in his career. But yeah, I think they’ll get someone else.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Where do you expect Dylan Bundy to be ranked on prospect lists this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Too high.

Comment From Alex
If the Tigers sign Ervin Santana, does it mean that a) a Scherzer extension was seen as unlikely by the Tigers front office and b) the Tigers value Santana higher than Fister as a replacement?

Dave Cameron: I haven’t seen this rumor, but I’m going on record as betting against Ervin Santana signing in Detroit.

Comment From Concerned Citizen
According to Sullivan’s article, Chone Figgins was once worth at least 6 WAR. What happened?

Dave Cameron: He fell apart. His BABIP cratered, the coaching staff told him his problems were taking too many pitches so he stopped walking, and then he had nothing left.

Comment From jon
Where is Kendrys Morales going to end up?

Dave Cameron: Orioles are the only team that makes sense, really. They say they’re not interested, but they might change their minds in March.

Comment From GSon
Masahiro Tanaka signs a ____ year contract for _$_____ AAV with the _____________________’s?

Dave Cameron: 6 years, $130 million, Yankees.

Comment From Anon21
Rumor in Braves world is that the Cubs were asking for a Samardzija package that would have started with Heyward or J. Upton. Strikes me as a silly opening ask for two years of a guy with stuff but less-than-stellar performance history. Do you think it’s reasonable?

Dave Cameron: Of course not, and I wouldn’t even believe that Theo asked for them.

Comment From Darren
Two moves the jays need to do to make a run at the wild card? are there any?

Dave Cameron: They need a second baseman and a starting pitcher.

Comment From Bill
Will teams put up any fight against the idea of getting rid of QO/Draft Pick Compensation? This will go away soon, right?

Dave Cameron: It holds down some player salaries, so they won’t just eliminate it without negotiating something in return.

Comment From Benjamin
do you expect jake mcgee to serve as the rays closer for the bulk of the 2014 season? if so, does he become top 5-6 at the position?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they acquired Heath Bell for him to setup, so no.

Comment From Darren
Based on your previous article, it would seem that the cost of a win this winter has been closer to $9M or $10M for 2+ year deals. The 1 year deals are closer to $5M to $6M. Is that close to your thinking?

Dave Cameron: No, I don’t think that’s true. I think the price for multi-year deals has been between $6-$7M.

Comment From Benjamin
does rosenthal become an elite lights-out closer in 2014?

Dave Cameron: Why don’t we think he already is one?

Comment From Tim W
Who need Nelson Cruz more, the Orioles or the Mariners? Is there a dark horse that would make more sense for Cruz?

Dave Cameron: No one needs Nelson Cruz. He’s just not very good.

Comment From Prich
Paxton/Franklin, Freemans’ choice of Taylor/Marte, and then any two of Sanchez/Pike/Diaz/Gohara for Price and Jennings… who would/should say no?

Dave Cameron: The Rays wouldn’t go near that.

Comment From Bob Dole
If the article about the aging curve changing is true, does that mean that Mike Trout has already peaked?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t throw away a long established trend of position players peaking around 27-28 just because it might not have been true the last few years.

Comment From Guest
Rick Hahn got a lot of love as a top GM candidate before finally being promoted last season. What do you think of the moves he has made thus far? (Eaton, Davidson, Abreu, Avisail)

Dave Cameron: I don’t think a ton of Avasail Garcia, but I like the overall plan.

Comment From Mr. McGee
Will Shin Soo-Choo get 7+ years?

Dave Cameron: I think he gets 7/126.

Comment From Forsyth
Do you think the Red Sox are relying too heavily on their young guys going into 2014? With Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, & Bradley, and really no veteran insurance, it seems like they’re rolling the dice a bit. Do you think they should try to go after 1 more veteran player (a la Stephen Drew) to alleviate some of the reliance on the young kids?

Dave Cameron: Veterans aren’t exactly reliable either.

Comment From jon
Is JJ Putz getting traded now that Arizona has Reed and Hernandez? Will he be a closer if he gets moved?

Dave Cameron: More likely they move Hernandez, who is coming off a poor year.

Comment From Guest
I read somewhere that there is speculation the market could push Santana and Jimenez back to KC and Cleveland, do you believe this could wind up being the case?

Dave Cameron: No, I think both are just waiting out the Tanaka market.

Comment From Guest
With the Indians signing David Murphy, Axford, Marcum, are they one step below the Rays and As in terms of sneaky signings that could help them reach 90 wins?

Dave Cameron: The Indians are in the contender-but-not-favorites pool.

Comment From _David _
Any possibility that Nick Franklin (in a bizzaro where he isn’t dealt) wins the SS job with a high spring training batting average or are the Mariners just pretending?

Dave Cameron: He can’t play shortstop.

Comment From Carl
How soon do the Angels try to get Trout extended? He’s a special circumstance, right? or does he have a chance to end up “just” as a 4-5 win player?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll start talking to him next winter.

Comment From Gila Monster
Dave would you be in favor of allowing draft pick to be traded in baseball? Or do you think the difference between a 1st and 4th round pick isn’t large enough for it to be worth anything?

Dave Cameron: There’s a huge difference between a 1st and 4th round pick. I’m okay with allowing draft pick trades, but if we’re fixing the draft, I’d rather just get rid of it.

Comment From Tim W
Over/Unders – (1) half of MLB teams offer the $20MM posting fee to negotiate with Tanaka and (2) $18MM AAV for Tanaka’s services.

Dave Cameron: Over. Every team except maybe the Marlins will tell the commissioner’s office they want to talk to him.

Comment From Alfred
Care to run down what you think the rest of the off-season will look like?

Dave Cameron: Tanaka is going to hold everything up. Once Rakuten makes a decision, the pitchers will start coming off the board. Choo will probably wait until January before signing with Texas or Detroit.

Comment From _David _
I know they signed Roberts, but what about Nick Franklin in a trade for Gardner?

Dave Cameron: Gardner has one year of team control left. You don’t pay that kind of price for a rental.

Comment From see ya later
What are the chances that Justin Smoak and/or Jesus Montero open the 2014 season on the Seattle Mariner roster?

Dave Cameron: Smoak is penciled in as the starting first baseman. Montero won’t be on the team.

Comment From Jedds Agent
In the very best case,Jedd Gyorko turns into ___________ in the next 3 years….Is he ever a good fielding 2b?

Dave Cameron: His upside looks like Carlos Baerga to me.

Comment From Gila Monster
Should teams desire a more raw high school pitcher over a more refined college pitcher? That way they can develop in your system or debut really young a la Jose Fernandez.

Dave Cameron: Nope. All things equal, you want the guy who is closer to the big leagues than the guy who is further away.

Comment From Oren
This seems to be getting some discussion around the web lately, so what’s your take: What would Trout get on a one-year deal if he was a free agent, and what type of long-term contract would he get?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-much-would-you-pay-for-one-year-of-mike-trout/

Comment From Rick
Omar Infante: overpaid? Justifiable on the Royals end?

Dave Cameron: Underpaid. He’s good.

Comment From Jack
Does Wilmer Flores still have trade value? He seems like a prospect (really) overrated by Mets fans but nobody else thinks very highly of him unless he’s playing third. That obviously won’t happen in New York.

Dave Cameron: Lack of position is a real problem.

Comment From Forsyth
Question – how many games would a 0 WAR team win? I thought I read somewhere that it’s ~47, but I can’t remember. Trying to project wins based on ZIPS.

Dave Cameron: 48ish, but please keep in mind that projected WAR+48 is a very rough estimate. It’s better to say that a team projected for +35 WAR is a roughly .500 team than it is to say that ZIPS projects that team to win 83 games.

Comment From CircuitHunter
What do you think of the Ibanez signing?

Dave Cameron: Waste of money.

Comment From AL
Do you think that Billy Butler to the A’s would make sense? The A’s have some additional younger pitching ie Tommy Milone type guys that could be included in a deal. Butler seems like the A’s type of player.

Dave Cameron: Expensive and overrated? He seems like the anti-A’s player.

Comment From Nick
Will John Axford rebound in the closers role in Cleveland?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess yes.

Comment From Josiah
What comes first, international draft or your idea of a domestic posting system for players?

Dave Cameron: International draft, which will happen in next few years.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Asked and answered of others in previous chats. But would like your opinion. I’m surprised the Cubs haven’t been active in fa this year. Maybe they get more active to rev-up for better results next off-season. I’m especially surprised they haven’t signed any high risk/high reward types to trade for prospects at the deadline. Any thoughts on this/these?

Dave Cameron: Those guys often sign late. They’ll be active in January, I’d imagine.

Comment From SK
How informed do you think the average owner is about the current game of baseball (scouting, SABR etc.)?

Dave Cameron: It varies. Some owners are very involved, others are just casual fans with a lot of money.

Comment From Guest
Will Price be dealt this off season?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think so.

Comment From Jason
Choo reportedly turned down 7/$140M from NYY. I don’t think this is credible. Am I taking crazy pills or something?

Dave Cameron: No reason to believe that.

Comment From Highway61
Enjoyed the Domestic Posting System article. Do you believe this will happen in MLB and would you like it? Not really sure how I feel about it…

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it happens any time soon. I could see it happening at some point in the future. I think I’m generally in favor of allowing teams the flexibility to do what they want.

Comment From Edgar
Brian Matusz for Justin Smoak – fair?

Dave Cameron: Not sure why Orioles would do that.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Many at FG think Kemp is done as an elite player. Do you agree with this? How much have injuries played a part in this? Chances he returns as that elite player?

Dave Cameron: I just wrote an article about that for ESPN Insider/FG+ last week.

Comment From Jack
Think Sandy gets what he wants for Davis? He’s shown incredible patience and willingness to let teams call his bluff during trade negotiations. His track record makes it tough to doubt him.

Dave Cameron: Davis isn’t worth much, so I think he’ll get a price that reflects that.

Comment From A. Lane
Wait, no chat next week?

Dave Cameron: Not chatting on Christmas day, sorry.

Comment From Guest
speaking of silly trade offers: do you believe the report that the Rays asked the Indians for Santana, Salazar and Lindor for Price?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Jose
Why don’t more teams pay free agents based on an actual value (using a base + incentives based on WAR) vs. a traditional contract that tends to over/undervalue yearly performance?

Dave Cameron: Can’t do performance based incentives. Only playing time incentives are allowed.

Comment From Bret
The Jays would have been the right team to give Cano the contract Seattle gave him, no?

Dave Cameron: Potentially, yes.

Comment From Guest
Seems like the NYY infield has not just the possibility, but a high probability to be a disaster this year? How say you?

Dave Cameron: Ehh, I think they have enough useful role players to avoid disaster. Johnson’s okay, Anna’s okay, Ryan can play D.

Comment From Nate
Is there a chance Gutierrez has lost what made him special defensively after missing so much time?

Dave Cameron: Yeah. He wasn’t very good out there last year.

Comment From _David _
Crazy thought about Morse, but might power in a pinch hitter be more valuable because when they would be used late game, an xbh or hr is often the only chance to win?

Dave Cameron: I think it’s the opposite, actually. Teams usually pinch-hit when there are already men on base. I think contact is actually the most important skill for a PH.

Comment From AL
ESPN article on Matt Kemp was interesting. I didn’t think that you were high on him coming into this season based on comments in these chats.

Dave Cameron: I’m not high on taking his entire contract. That’s different than thinking he’s done as a player. I just think for 6/130, you should be getting less risk.

Comment From Guest
Is Wacha being too highly rated going into 2013? Is he really a #2/3 on that staff with only two pitches?

Dave Cameron: When one of the pitches is a dynamite change-up, a third pitch isn’t necessary.

Comment From Guest
Dave, do you think Seattle’s front office considered jersey sales, ticket revenue, beer and popcorn sales etc when they signed Cano for 10/240? Follow up is should they?

Dave Cameron: No, no.

Comment From Guest
If your 3rdbaseman is defensively much better than your 1stbaseman, and a deadpull lefty hitter comes up, can the team have the players switch positions for the at bat? Would MLB allow him to switch gloves between batters?

Dave Cameron: Sure, you can move guys around all you want, but if the guy is a dead pull lefty who can’t bunt, you might as well just leave your 1B where he is and put your 3B in shallow RF.

Comment From Justin
How would you grade the Cardinals offseason, seeing as it is now likely complete?

Dave Cameron: A. Hard to do better than they did.

Comment From Chris
Larry Walker’s wRC+ of 140 makes him a HOF quality player, right?

Dave Cameron: It’s never that simple.

Comment From Prich
Of these two options, what do you think is a more likely scenario for the Rays Re: Price- They settle for a handful of good but not elite players/prospects, or, they just hold onto him and try to win a WS?

Dave Cameron: They’ll move him.

Comment From Bo
In theory, what would Kimbrel be worth on the trade market?

Dave Cameron: Not as much as you might think.

Comment From Josiah
What do you favor instead of the draft?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/abolish-the-draft/

Comment From David
You’ve been saying that both veteran and prospects aren’t “proven” in various ways, but does it still make sense to be more confident in projections based on a major league sample of play than a translation of a minor league sample of play? I know that the proven/unproven dichotomy is false, but is information gathered at the major league level a more reliable source of data for projections than minor league information?

Dave Cameron: There is less variance around the expected production of a major league projection than a minor league one, but the variance is far smaller than people think.

Dave Cameron: variance gap, that should say.

Comment From Dave
How do you respond to someone that says that if you were to eliminate the draft then the Yankees and Dodgers would just sign everyone? Need talking points against my brother.

Dave Cameron: You can eliminate the draft without giving teams unfettered access to signing amateurs.

Comment From JayT
Even if aging curves haven’t really changed, you kind of have to assume Trout has already peaked, no? He has two of the top 50 seasons since 1900…there’s not a whole lot of room for him to get better!

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s basically already at the ceiling of player performance, or at least very close to it.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Has FG ever thought of hiring the “anti-WAR” writer? Good to get multiple sides to the thought process?

Dave Cameron: Giving nonsense a platform in an effort to appear balanced is stupid.

Comment From Kris
From getting posted to signing a deal, how long do you expect the Tanaka negotiation to last?

Dave Cameron: A month.

Comment From John
Do the Red Sox trade one of their 6 starters this offseason?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. Injuries happen.

Comment From Pete
One day as Commissioner – free to make one change in baseball….what would it be?

Dave Cameron: Bud Selig is forever banned from public speaking.

Comment From RoRo
Better signing: Nathan, Benoit, or Wilson?

Dave Cameron: Benoit.

Comment From zack
the phillies plan of re-signing older veterans an then taking offers for their two best pitchers makes total sense right?

Dave Cameron: Well, there’s no evidence that they are actually taking offers for Lee/Hamels, right?

Comment From Crab Nicholson
Who is worse this season: the Phillies or the Twins?

Dave Cameron: The Twins are pretty bad.

Comment From Tim
Do you think the Royals acquire an SP to slot in between Shields and Guthrie?

Dave Cameron: They say they’re out of money.

Comment From Bobo
Beyond an International Draft, is there any consideration for expanding play internationally to allow a true “World” Series?

Dave Cameron: There aren’t any international teams who could compete with an MLB team.

Comment From jay
Who won the Balfour for j. Johnson “trade” between the a’s and o’s?

Dave Cameron: Orioles.

Comment From eric
how did OAK go from a 96-win team, to being just +40 WAR on the Depth Chart page? Did they win 8 games too many last year, already lose 8 WAR this offseason, something in between, or what?

Dave Cameron: Regression to the mean.

Comment From Jonn
Sandy Alderson next Commissioner? Former Marine, Harvard Law grad. And oh yeah, he’s been in the game a bit.

Dave Cameron: Rob Manfred is in line for the job.

Comment From Staypufft
Re: Domestic Posting. Teams can already trade players for cash. How is Domestic Posting different that trading a player for cash with one of the extension negotiation requriements?

Dave Cameron: Teams can’t trade players for significant amounts of cash without commissioner’s approval.

Dave Cameron: Puppy just spilled water everywhere – time out.

Dave Cameron: That’s what I get for leaving a cup of water on an end table.

Comment From senorpogo
Do you have any interest in doing Fangraph-esque stuff in another sport?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know other sports well enough.

Comment From Jordan
What was the fan-sourced answer to the one-year Trout contract value survey?

Dave Cameron: $35 million or so. Too low, I think.

Comment From Mr. Jones
With Murphy and (probably) Cruz departing via FA, and Gentry traded, are the Rangers planning to give significant Major League playing time to Michael Choice? If so, is this a reasonable plan?

Dave Cameron: No, I think they’ll sign an OF.

Comment From Guest
MLB’s current ultrawealth seems largely the result of the unique position live sports have right now as the only reason anyone, anywhere ever buys cable. True or false: As cable inevitably dies, baseball suffers financially, maybe to a large degree.

Dave Cameron: True-ish, but when cable dies, MLB can just sell the games directly to consumers themselves, get in the advertising business, and still make plenty of money. Ads on live sports aren’t going to get less expensive just because cable dies.

Comment From Jonn
Best upcoming GM?

Dave Cameron: Michael Girsch.

Comment From Prich
If the Mariners were able to get the Rays to include Jennings in a Price deal, does dealing one of Walker or Zunino then become, uh, tolerable?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but Rays wouldn’t do that.

Comment From Wally
Nats: their pitching is excellent, but do you think their line up is playoff quality? Seems like they are banking on a lot to go right. Would you have made an upgrade, if you were Rizzo?

Dave Cameron: Their line-up is fine.

Comment From Daniel
2. Would you say the Howard signing or Papelbon signing were worse at the time they were signed?

Dave Cameron: Howard, easy.

Comment From Josh
How does your approach change for ESPN Insider articles vs FG, if at all. Do you try and wire more broadly for the masses on espn?

Dave Cameron: ESPN pieces have to be more commentary, less data.

Comment From Guest
Do you think you’ll ever write a book? Seems like a very painful process, but rewarding in the end..

Dave Cameron: I don’t think I’d write a baseball book. I might write a book when I’m 60 and retired and have nothing else to do with my time.

Comment From John
Dave, how does historical defensive data work? For instance Babe Ruth has fielding ratings and is even a +19 (!!) in one year. I figured he’d grade out awful because of his body but he actually grades out pretty well, however that is calculated.

Dave Cameron: Prior to 2002, the site uses Total Zone, a defensive metric created by Sean Smith (now a consultant for an MLB team). The numbers are based on box score data, so it isn’t as robust as more recent metrics.

Comment From josh
what would it take from the Blue Jays to acquire Brandon Phillips contract?

Dave Cameron: The Reds would probably have to eat some of it.

Comment From Bkgeneral
What should the Reds do with Bailey?

Dave Cameron: Try to extend him.

Comment From john
Hindsight is always 20-20. But given the Mets unlikely to be competitive with the team assembled, and the current contracts of FA, shouldn’t Sandy have resigned Reyes- or even attempted- 2 years ago? Especially given their glaring needs (ss, lead off hitter)

Dave Cameron: I was on the Reyes bandwagon then, so not hindsight. Not sure why they decided to let him go.

Comment From Tom
Dave, help me decide on a prospect sub: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, or ESPN Insider (Law and others)? Ive heard great things about all of them but I’m only looking for one. Would appreciate any insight you may have! Thanks.

Dave Cameron: I’m obviously biased because we contribute to ESPN Insider, but the reality is that they’re all very different. If you want full coverage of prospects/minors/college, go BA. If you want multiple sports, go ESPN.

Comment From Not Good at Math
Can you explain regression to the mean? It sounds like it means that a “true-talent” wRC+ of 140 is always more likely to be under that than over it, given that the average is 100. What’s the theory/evidence behind it?

Dave Cameron: Easiest way to explain this: If someone had a good year, it was likely some combination of them being good and having good luck. If someone had a bad year, it was likely some combination of them being bad and having bad luck. The gap between the two in the next year will likely be smaller than it was in the first year, because the luck isn’t likely to continue.

Dave Cameron: (if you don’t like the word luck, replace with “unsustainable”).

Comment From Guest
what would YOU give Trout on a one year contract?

Dave Cameron: $50 million.

Comment From SC
What would you consider a reasonable deal for a Trout Extension. 10 Years/300 Million?

Dave Cameron: Less. He’s got one league minimum year and three arb years left, which you could project for a max of about $60 million in total, and that’s if he got some crazy arb amounts. So then you’re adding on 6/$240M to get to 10/300. Realistically, given how far he is from FA years, he shouldn’t get more than $30M apiece for them, and even that might be generous. But 6 at $30M apiece would be another $180M, so 10/$240M maybe?

Comment From Martin
Who is Michael Girsch, pardon me asking…?

Dave Cameron: AGM for the Cardinals. Just did a Q&A with Laurila a few weeks back.

Comment From Gila Monster
The problem with selling sports directly is sport often rely on the whole “well nothing better is on” situation. I don’t think you capture the casual fan when you sell direct to consumers because most consumers would need to care a lot.

Dave Cameron: MLB.tv sells very well, even though it’s not available to in-market buyers. Get rid of that restriction and they’d sell them like crazy.

Comment From Jason
Better young pitcher on the Cardinals: Wacha or Martinez?

Dave Cameron: Wacha.

Comment From Scrapper
Is Stroman plus one more good (non-elite) pitching prospect a fair return for Samardzija?

Dave Cameron: Too much.

Comment From Guest
Will MLB.tv ever get rid of that stupid restriction?

Dave Cameron: When cable dies, yes.

Comment From Steve
Worse player: Trumbo or Kubel

Dave Cameron: Trumbo is overrated, Kubel just sucks.

Comment From chuckb
Do you participate in the free agent contract crowdsourcing? If so, how are you doing?

Dave Cameron: I basically was 10% higher than the fans on most deals.

Comment From Guest
if you were not writing about baseball or working in baseball in any fashion, what would you be doing for a living?

Dave Cameron: I was actually thinking about this last week. I have no plans to leave my job (it’s pretty ridiculous that I do this for a living), but I don’t actually know what the shelf life of a baseball analyst is. I figure at some point you all will get tired of me and I’ll have to figure out something else to do.

Dave Cameron: Okay, puppy now demanding attention, have to save the house from destruction. Have a great Christmas and we’ll talk again in 2014.