2014 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees by Carson Cistulli December 18, 2013 After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Minnesota / Philadelphia / San Diego / St. Louis. Batters It’s the ambition of the author, in the composition of these ZiPS posts, first to do no harm. For that reason, I’ll abstain from a prolonged discussion of Alex Rodriguez and/or The Alex Rodriguez Saga. The present state of affairs — at least with regard to how it affects the New York Yankees — appears to be thus: 1. Alex Rodriguez is appealing a very long suspension currently; and 2. The Yankees have signed Kelly Johnson; and 3. The Yankees, more recently, have signed Brian Roberts. That’s three infielders, two of them injury-prone, for two positions. Johnson and Rodriguez are about equally valuable on a rate basis according to ZiPS, it looks like, while Roberts is closer to replacement level. That is all we will speak of that, for the moment. Elsewhere, one finds both that (a) the WAR totals for the Yankees field players are sometimes low-ish and that (b) those same WAR totals are frequently low-ish (when they’re low-ish) because the playing-time projections are also low-ish. Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and Mark Teixeira: none of them are projected to reach even 500 plate appearances, for example. Also for example, each of them is considered the starter at his respective position. Pitchers One presumes that, given their aggressiveness thus far in the free-agent market, that the Yankees have ambitions of qualifying for the postseason in 2014. One also presumes, given the projections published here, that the Yankees might require the assistance of one or two more starting pitchers to realize those ambitions. A recent report from the Associated Press suggests that Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka is eyeing major-league baseball. The Yankees are eyeing him back, likely. Otherwise, who’s available? Matt Garza, it appears. Ubaldo Jimenez. Ervin Santana. Or someone via trade, of course. Bench/Prospects Years from now, the 2013-14 offseason won’t be remembered as the one in which Robinson Cano signed a giant contract with the Seattle Mariners or in which Masahiro Tanaka either did or didn’t notably arrive stateside. Rather, it will be remembered for how the Yankees acquired, via trade, superstar Dean Anna for almost nothing — or, if not superstar Dean Anna, then at least generally competent Dean Anna. A member of the Padres organization for the duration of his professional career, Anna is projected to record a WAR at least four times higher than either of the players currently expected to start at shortstop or second base for the Yankees. “A revelation,” is how he’ll be described in newspaper articles and private diaries at some point in the not-distant future. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Jacoby Ellsbury L 30 CF 546 73 143 26 4 14 52 32 6 Brian McCann L 30 C 474 50 108 15 0 22 71 2 1 Brett Gardner L 30 CF 463 64 105 20 7 6 36 23 7 Alfonso Soriano R 38 LF 569 75 130 27 1 32 103 12 6 Mark Teixeira B 34 1B 356 45 76 15 0 17 70 1 1 Carlos Beltran B 37 RF 548 67 132 23 2 26 80 5 3 Dean Anna L 27 2B 513 68 108 22 3 8 49 3 3 J.R. Murphy R 23 C 500 57 110 25 1 14 50 2 2 Gary Sanchez R 21 C 513 56 110 23 1 19 63 6 3 Kelly Johnson L 32 2B 503 56 103 17 3 18 56 10 4 Kevin Youkilis R 35 3B 319 41 66 14 1 12 36 1 0 Yamaico Navarro R 26 SS 429 47 93 17 2 8 42 8 4 Brendan Ryan R 32 SS 425 47 86 18 2 4 35 8 3 Alex Rodriguez R 38 3B 317 38 66 10 0 11 33 6 2 Zelous Wheeler R 27 3B 469 47 103 19 1 10 44 4 1 Luis Cruz R 30 3B 395 39 93 19 1 7 48 2 2 Vernon Wells R 35 LF 419 50 98 17 1 16 55 5 3 Corban Joseph L 25 2B 438 50 93 21 3 10 42 2 2 Slade Heathcott L 23 CF 418 45 89 18 4 9 39 13 7 Austin Romine R 25 C 283 31 63 12 0 5 27 1 0 Francisco Cervelli R 28 C 212 22 43 7 1 3 20 2 0 Travis Hafner L 37 DH 262 28 52 7 2 11 38 1 0 Melky Mesa R 27 CF 454 51 92 18 3 17 51 13 6 Mark Reynolds R 30 1B 532 68 102 19 0 27 81 3 3 Eduardo Nunez R 27 SS 385 43 92 16 3 5 33 19 5 Fernando Martinez L 25 RF 363 40 79 16 1 13 42 1 1 David Adams R 27 3B 357 35 78 17 1 6 34 2 2 Derek Jeter R 40 SS 325 39 76 12 1 5 25 7 3 Ichiro Suzuki L 40 RF 546 64 141 20 4 8 43 20 5 Brian Roberts B 36 2B 215 21 48 9 1 4 25 3 1 Antoan Richardson B 30 CF 447 53 84 10 3 1 23 19 5 Josh Bell B 27 3B 394 43 78 14 1 12 43 2 2 Brennan Boesch L 29 RF 340 38 78 16 2 10 39 4 2 Tyler Austin R 22 RF 446 49 96 21 3 11 47 9 3 Mason Williams L 22 CF 516 52 112 21 3 9 40 14 13 Jayson Nix R 31 SS 313 31 61 12 1 6 28 8 2 Randy Ruiz R 36 1B 258 30 56 9 0 11 27 1 1 Russ Canzler R 28 1B 562 60 119 24 2 16 60 3 2 Lyle Overbay L 37 1B 330 30 71 17 1 8 36 1 0 Zoilo Almonte B 25 LF 485 48 106 19 2 14 55 9 4 Corey Patterson L 34 CF 338 33 69 13 1 7 28 10 4 Ramon Flores L 22 LF 631 65 137 25 4 9 50 10 7 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Jacoby Ellsbury 546 7.1% 13.9% .152 .313 .286 .341 .438 .347 Brian McCann 474 10.3% 18.1% .193 .275 .258 .340 .451 .338 Brett Gardner 463 9.5% 18.6% .128 .314 .259 .339 .388 .322 Alfonso Soriano 569 6.0% 27.6% .237 .287 .247 .297 .484 .335 Mark Teixeira 356 11.2% 18.5% .216 .259 .248 .340 .464 .347 Carlos Beltran 548 8.4% 19.2% .212 .287 .267 .327 .479 .342 Dean Anna 513 9.4% 17.3% .116 .279 .240 .321 .356 .300 J.R. Murphy 500 7.2% 18.6% .151 .272 .241 .299 .393 .303 Gary Sanchez 513 5.7% 25.7% .173 .278 .232 .283 .404 .301 Kelly Johnson 503 10.1% 26.6% .173 .289 .232 .315 .405 .316 Kevin Youkilis 319 10.7% 21.3% .190 .277 .242 .345 .432 .341 Yamaico Navarro 429 8.6% 19.8% .117 .287 .242 .308 .358 .297 Brendan Ryan 425 7.3% 19.1% .089 .275 .226 .289 .316 .267 Alex Rodriguez 317 9.8% 24.9% .154 .288 .237 .322 .391 .315 Zelous Wheeler 469 7.2% 19.8% .120 .288 .243 .310 .363 .300 Luis Cruz 395 3.0% 14.9% .112 .276 .247 .275 .359 .275 Vernon Wells 419 5.7% 15.5% .171 .262 .251 .294 .422 .311 Corban Joseph 438 8.7% 21.0% .145 .282 .236 .305 .381 .300 Slade Heathcott 418 6.2% 28.5% .138 .310 .232 .286 .370 .288 Austin Romine 283 6.4% 21.6% .103 .294 .241 .291 .345 .282 Francisco Cervelli 212 8.5% 21.2% .097 .288 .232 .314 .330 .291 Travis Hafner 262 10.7% 24.0% .194 .266 .229 .328 .423 .329 Melky Mesa 454 4.8% 34.6% .177 .298 .217 .264 .394 .289 Mark Reynolds 532 12.4% 31.8% .219 .284 .223 .327 .442 .336 Eduardo Nunez 385 5.7% 14.0% .105 .291 .260 .304 .364 .296 Fernando Martinez 363 5.5% 27.0% .172 .295 .238 .293 .410 .305 David Adams 357 7.0% 21.0% .115 .295 .241 .306 .356 .294 Derek Jeter 325 7.7% 14.5% .099 .292 .259 .322 .357 .301 Ichiro Suzuki 546 3.7% 10.3% .101 .292 .273 .299 .373 .292 Brian Roberts 215 7.9% 16.3% .118 .278 .246 .304 .364 .296 Antoan Richardson 447 10.3% 23.0% .050 .296 .220 .315 .270 .271 Josh Bell 394 7.6% 30.2% .145 .284 .217 .277 .362 .280 Brennan Boesch 340 6.8% 20.9% .160 .292 .250 .306 .410 .313 Tyler Austin 446 7.6% 25.8% .147 .300 .236 .298 .383 .301 Mason Williams 516 5.0% 17.8% .113 .272 .235 .276 .348 .267 Jayson Nix 313 7.0% 27.2% .114 .288 .218 .285 .332 .274 Randy Ruiz 258 4.7% 31.0% .173 .294 .230 .271 .403 .295 Russ Canzler 562 8.2% 26.3% .149 .295 .234 .299 .383 .300 Lyle Overbay 330 7.6% 23.9% .142 .289 .235 .291 .377 .293 Zoilo Almonte 485 6.2% 25.4% .144 .291 .236 .285 .380 .292 Corey Patterson 338 3.6% 23.4% .113 .266 .217 .249 .330 .251 Ramon Flores 631 7.4% 19.0% .104 .284 .238 .297 .343 .284 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Jacoby Ellsbury 546 6.1 110 7 4.1 Sam West Brian McCann 474 5.6 113 -2 3.2 Ed Bailey Brett Gardner 463 5.0 97 3 2.3 Ed Stroud Alfonso Soriano 569 5.2 107 2 2.0 Phil Hiatt Mark Teixeira 356 5.6 116 5 1.7 Roy Smalley Carlos Beltran 548 5.7 115 -5 1.7 Bobby Bonilla Dean Anna 513 4.0 84 5 1.6 Ed Giovanola J.R. Murphy 500 4.1 86 -4 1.6 Henry Blanco Gary Sanchez 513 4.0 84 -4 1.6 Tim Laker Kelly Johnson 503 4.5 94 -3 1.5 Jed Hansen Kevin Youkilis 319 5.3 110 -3 1.4 Jay Bell Yamaico Navarro 429 3.9 81 1 1.2 Ronnie Merrill Brendan Ryan 425 3.2 65 8 1.1 Rabbit Warstler Alex Rodriguez 317 4.5 93 -1 1.0 Dick Bartell Zelous Wheeler 469 4.1 82 -2 0.8 Gary Scott Luis Cruz 395 3.5 71 7 0.7 Kevin Baez Vernon Wells 419 4.4 91 2 0.7 Chad Mottola Corban Joseph 438 4.1 85 -2 0.7 Boi Rodriguez Slade Heathcott 418 3.7 77 2 0.6 Lloyd Moseby Austin Romine 283 3.6 72 -1 0.6 Jason Hill Francisco Cervelli 212 3.8 76 -1 0.5 Dennis Anderson Travis Hafner 262 4.9 102 0 0.5 Harmon Killebrew Melky Mesa 454 3.6 76 1 0.5 Pat Keedy Mark Reynolds 532 5.0 106 -7 0.5 Chris Cron Eduardo Nunez 385 4.3 81 -6 0.5 Eddy Garabito Fernando Martinez 363 4.2 88 2 0.5 Justin Huber David Adams 357 3.8 79 -1 0.5 Ryan Hankins Derek Jeter 325 4.2 85 -5 0.4 Tony Graffanino Ichiro Suzuki 546 4.4 82 3 0.3 Tony Womack Brian Roberts 215 4.0 81 -2 0.2 Rene Gonzales Antoan Richardson 447 3.2 61 -1 0.1 Jeff Duncan Josh Bell 394 3.4 72 -1 0.0 Mike Groppuso Brennan Boesch 340 4.5 92 -5 0.0 Roy Johnson Tyler Austin 446 4.1 84 -2 0.0 Pat Tabler Mason Williams 516 3.1 68 2 -0.1 Torii Hunter Jayson Nix 313 3.4 67 -4 -0.1 Dave Matranga Randy Ruiz 258 3.8 80 -1 -0.3 Willie Horton Russ Canzler 562 4.0 84 -1 -0.3 Thomas Hubbard Lyle Overbay 330 3.9 80 0 -0.4 Willie Horton Zoilo Almonte 485 3.8 79 -2 -0.4 Mike Diaz Corey Patterson 338 2.9 56 0 -0.6 Thomas Johnson Ramon Flores 631 3.5 73 -3 -1.0 Rafael DeLima *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Hiroki Kuroda R 39 28 28 178.0 135 42 21 177 79 74 CC Sabathia L 33 29 29 196.3 180 53 23 196 94 88 Ivan Nova R 27 28 26 165.0 124 53 16 167 78 73 Andy Pettitte L 42 21 21 126.7 95 35 15 132 63 59 David Robertson R 29 67 0 63.0 85 22 6 48 20 19 David Phelps R 27 26 15 101.7 92 38 14 101 55 51 Michael Pineda R 25 16 16 81.3 75 30 12 80 45 42 Mariano Rivera R 44 36 0 35.0 31 7 4 34 15 14 Shawn Kelley R 30 50 0 48.7 57 19 6 44 22 21 Matt Thornton L 37 57 0 47.7 40 14 5 48 22 21 Preston Claiborne R 26 55 0 63.0 53 19 8 64 32 30 Vidal Nuno L 26 18 12 71.0 52 19 13 79 44 41 Adam Warren R 26 43 2 77.7 63 32 11 81 43 40 Brian Gordon R 35 46 0 54.3 38 12 7 60 30 28 Manny Banuelos L 23 7 7 28.0 24 14 5 31 19 18 Joba Chamberlain R 28 38 0 37.7 35 16 6 38 21 20 Yoshinori Tateyama R 38 39 0 56.7 45 17 9 61 33 31 Mark Montgomery R 23 35 0 46.3 50 33 7 44 28 26 Jose Campos R 21 20 15 65.7 42 22 12 78 45 42 Cesar Cabral L 25 34 0 43.3 37 26 5 45 27 25 Nik Turley L 24 25 24 119.7 98 70 20 128 81 76 Sam Demel R 28 45 0 50.7 44 29 9 53 33 31 Mike Zagurski L 31 49 0 50.3 49 33 8 52 33 31 Jim Miller R 32 49 0 62.7 58 32 12 66 41 38 Shane Greene R 25 25 25 125.7 86 66 21 146 89 83 David Huff L 29 31 21 129.0 79 46 24 152 91 85 Bryan Mitchell R 23 26 25 120.3 85 86 17 136 88 82 Dellin Betances R 26 34 16 96.7 87 84 15 102 72 67 Jose Ramirez R 24 19 17 76.0 62 47 18 87 61 57 Brett Marshall R 24 27 25 133.7 89 83 32 163 114 107 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Hiroki Kuroda 178.0 752 18.0% 5.5% .283 3.74 4.12 90 99 CC Sabathia 196.3 838 21.5% 6.3% .300 4.03 3.84 97 92 Ivan Nova 165.0 714 17.4% 7.4% .295 3.98 4.19 96 101 Andy Pettitte 126.7 548 17.4% 6.4% .294 4.19 4.19 101 101 David Robertson 63.0 259 32.9% 8.4% .293 2.71 2.76 65 66 David Phelps 101.7 445 20.8% 8.6% .296 4.51 4.56 108 110 Michael Pineda 81.3 355 21.1% 8.5% .291 4.65 4.62 112 111 Mariano Rivera 35.0 146 21.3% 4.8% .289 3.60 3.54 87 85 Shawn Kelley 48.7 208 27.2% 9.0% .297 3.88 3.72 93 89 Matt Thornton 47.7 205 19.5% 6.8% .298 3.97 3.90 95 94 Preston Claiborne 63.0 272 19.6% 7.1% .297 4.29 4.16 103 100 Vidal Nuno 71.0 311 16.7% 6.1% .295 5.20 5.24 125 126 Adam Warren 77.7 347 18.3% 9.3% .297 4.64 4.74 111 114 Brian Gordon 54.3 235 16.2% 5.1% .305 4.64 4.50 112 108 Manny Banuelos 28.0 129 18.4% 10.9% .312 5.79 5.51 139 132 Joba Chamberlain 37.7 167 21.1% 9.6% .299 4.78 4.72 115 113 Yoshinori Tateyama 56.7 247 18.3% 6.7% .300 4.92 4.66 118 112 Mark Montgomery 46.3 216 23.2% 15.3% .302 5.05 5.30 121 127 Jose Campos 65.7 297 14.1% 7.5% .304 5.76 5.68 138 137 Cesar Cabral 43.3 201 18.4% 12.9% .306 5.19 5.20 125 125 Nik Turley 119.7 557 17.5% 12.6% .298 5.72 5.83 137 140 Sam Demel 50.7 234 18.9% 12.3% .302 5.51 5.65 132 136 Mike Zagurski 50.3 235 20.9% 13.8% .304 5.54 5.61 133 135 Jim Miller 62.7 286 20.4% 11.2% .300 5.46 5.56 131 134 Shane Greene 125.7 589 14.6% 11.2% .307 5.94 5.86 143 141 David Huff 129.0 585 13.6% 7.9% .298 5.93 5.77 143 139 Bryan Mitchell 120.3 583 14.5% 14.7% .308 6.13 6.12 147 147 Dellin Betances 96.7 476 18.4% 17.6% .307 6.24 6.37 150 153 Jose Ramirez 76.0 361 17.2% 12.9% .300 6.75 6.78 162 163 Brett Marshall 133.7 647 13.7% 12.8% .301 7.20 7.15 173 172 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Hiroki Kuroda 178.0 6.84 2.11 1.08 111 3.4 Greg Maddux CC Sabathia 196.3 8.27 2.42 1.06 103 3.1 Frank Tanana Ivan Nova 165.0 6.77 2.86 0.87 105 2.7 Ed Wojna Andy Pettitte 126.7 6.76 2.51 1.04 99 1.7 Kenny Rogers David Robertson 63.0 12.17 3.11 0.79 154 1.3 Paul Shuey David Phelps 101.7 8.18 3.40 1.24 92 0.9 Steve Farr Michael Pineda 81.3 8.27 3.34 1.34 90 0.7 Bob Sebra Mariano Rivera 35.0 7.96 1.78 1.01 116 0.3 Trevor Hoffman Shawn Kelley 48.7 10.50 3.48 1.16 107 0.3 Darren Holmes Matt Thornton 47.7 7.55 2.64 0.94 105 0.3 Buddy Groom Preston Claiborne 63.0 7.62 2.76 1.14 97 0.1 Jose Acevedo Vidal Nuno 71.0 6.59 2.39 1.67 80 0.1 Larry Acker Adam Warren 77.7 7.36 3.72 1.24 90 0.0 Mike Lumley Brian Gordon 54.3 6.30 1.99 1.16 90 -0.1 Dave Pavlas Manny Banuelos 28.0 7.65 4.52 1.49 72 -0.2 Dave Martinez Joba Chamberlain 37.7 8.44 3.83 1.38 87 -0.2 Derrick Turnbow Yoshinori Tateyama 56.7 7.19 2.63 1.38 85 -0.3 Dave Pavlas Mark Montgomery 46.3 9.73 6.40 1.29 83 -0.3 Rafael Pimentel Jose Campos 65.7 5.73 3.06 1.64 72 -0.4 Miguel Pinango Cesar Cabral 43.3 7.69 5.37 1.14 80 -0.4 Jeff Ridgway Nik Turley 119.7 7.34 5.29 1.51 73 -0.6 Bob Ojeda Sam Demel 50.7 7.88 5.12 1.55 76 -0.7 Mike James Mike Zagurski 50.3 8.80 5.81 1.51 75 -0.7 Mark Davis Jim Miller 62.7 8.38 4.61 1.67 76 -0.8 Bob Long Shane Greene 125.7 6.15 4.71 1.47 70 -0.9 Chad Paronto David Huff 129.0 5.53 3.22 1.70 70 -1.0 Huck Flener Bryan Mitchell 120.3 6.32 6.42 1.27 68 -1.2 Brett Laxton Dellin Betances 96.7 8.13 7.81 1.40 67 -1.2 Cal Eldred Jose Ramirez 76.0 7.35 5.51 2.10 62 -1.3 Fernando Rijo Brett Marshall 133.7 5.96 5.56 2.17 58 -3.1 Bill Malloy *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.