FanGraphs Chat – 5/21/14

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday. The queue is now open for your non-fantasy questions.

Comment From Gabe
Yes yes, SSS and all that, but–hypothetically speaking–if d’Arnaud and Flores don’t work out, are the Mets screwed in both the short- and long-term?

Dave Cameron: They’re screwed in the short-term no matter what those two do, because this team is bad. But in the long-term, no, having two prospects not pan out doesn’t ruin your future.

Comment From Graham
What do you think the Nats do with Zimmerman when he gets back, position-wise?

Dave Cameron: Espinosa has stopped hitting again, so probably put him back at third and shift Rendon back to second.

Comment From Darren
Jays just went into first on Fangraphs Playoff Odds for AL East. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: It’s a toss-up. There is no obvious leader.

Comment From Not Jedd Gyorko
What happened to Jedd Gyorko and what makes the Padres extend him given how terrible he’s been and had been when they did it.

Dave Cameron: He’s just not that great. He’s an average-ish player in a slump, and this is what it looks like when average-ish players run cold. In terms of the extension, they were trying to avoid a breakout and having to pay a lot more in the future. It probably won’t hurt them, but they do have a poor track record of identifying guys to extend.

Comment From Graham
your MVP and Cy Young picks at this point are ____

Dave Cameron: Tulo and Cueto in the NL, Trout and Scherzer in the AL.

Comment From Jim
How predictive are LD rates in determining whether a BABIP is unreasonably high or low? Thanks for the chat!

Dave Cameron: LD% and BABIP are correlated, but LD% itself isn’t very predictive, so you can’t say that a player with a high LD% will keep hitting for a high BABIP because you don’t know that he’s going to keep hitting for a high LD%.

Comment From CJ
What can/should the Pirates do to get back on track? Polanco seems to be the easy answer, but SP is failing them even more than offense.

Dave Cameron: Polanco doesn’t fix the rotation. We’re getting close to the point where we have to declare that the 2014 Pirates just aren’t that good.

Comment From SK
Was 2013 a fluke season for Domonic Brown enhanced by the crazy run he went on for a month? He’s shown almost no power so far this year.

Dave Cameron: Another player who just isn’t that good.

Comment From Brad
Ben Zobrist 2.0 question. What can you look at in Dozier’s history that could have predicted his breakout? Or, did he have good coaching to teach him what he needed to change in his approach.

Dave Cameron: He made a bunch of mechanical changes last year. I don’t think those kinds of things are predictable.

Comment From Timothy
Are you aware that the Cubs possess both a positive run differential and the worst record in the MLB. Do you think things could get better from here on out?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t think the Cubs are a terrible team.

Dave Cameron: They’re not good, but they’re not the Astros.

Comment From Mookie The Wookie
Stephen Drew screws everything up! With his signing in Boston is there any likely hood that we see Mookie this summer?

Dave Cameron: They’ve already started playing Betts in center field. That’s probably where he’ll debut when they determine he’s ready.

Comment From SK
Career year in 2014 for Lester? Or is he pitching over his head right now?

Dave Cameron: That is the definition of a career year.

Comment From Bill
I know you wrote the article a few weeks back on expected run differential via wOBA and wOBA allowed–can updated versions of these be found?

Dave Cameron: I’ll run another one soon. We’ll add them to the site eventually.

Comment From AJ
Couple Red Sox Drew fallout questions: 1) Should the Red Sox look to move Middlebrooks now? Seems like a bad idea with how poorly he’s played but being on the wrong side of a platoon isn’t a great showcase for trade value. 2) Xander mentioned to the Boston Globe that he was (basically) hurt by the move to acquire Drew. He also mentioned that it MIGHT have contributed to his two errors yesterday. Is that sort of thing a mistake on his part? I understand the Red Sox would never bench him, I meant it as a more general question towards all of MLB.

Dave Cameron: I’d probably send Middlebrooks to Triple-A and hope he mashes down there. Finding a right-handed platoon partner for Bogaerts shouldn’t be that hard, and it shouldn’t be a strict L/R platoon anyway. In terms of Bogearts response, I’d imagine he’ll get over it.

Comment From OverratedRaysKids
Why does everyone seem so bullish on Wil Myers when seems obvious last yr was a product of unsustainable babip? 855ops in AA & 910ops in PCL, both with mediocre peripherals, don’t exactly scream MLB studliness, especially for a guy without much value on D, do they?

Dave Cameron: I’ve said all along that he’s a right-handed Jay Bruce. If you set that as your expectation, and not that he’s some kind of superstar, then you’ll be fine.

Comment From Calvin
Could Juan Francisco become the third free-swinging Jay to improve plate discipline overnight and become a monster, a la Bautista/Encarnacion? He is two years younger than when they powered up.

Dave Cameron: Those two made contact. He doesn’t.

Comment From Guest
Thanks for the chat Dave. Put on your prediction hat. Pablo Sandoval goes to [ ] for $[ ]MM / [ ] years.

Dave Cameron: Cleveland, 4 years, $60 million.

Comment From Jake
Who gets more WAR in 2014, Trout or Tulo?

Dave Cameron: Trout. Tulo is likely to hit the DL at some point.

Comment From Alex
How will the newly announced player tracking system change the game?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it will change the game much at all. If it works, and if it’s made public, it will change our perception of the game a good deal.

Comment From Percy
Does WAR differentiate between a pitcher that is half-excellent & half-terrible in his starts as opposed to one who is consistently “average” in his starts?

Dave Cameron: No, WAR is context-neutral. It doesn’t account for this with hitters either, nor should it.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Why does everyone insist the Cubs have to trade Samardzija? The question should be whether any return they can get makes them more likely to win the world series in the next 5-10 years than signing Samardzija would. Personally I don’t have enough confidence in the current crop of top pitching prospects to believe that any of them improve the Cubs chances. It seems to me like trading Samardzija is more of a business move (using more of the Cubs revenue to pay off the debt MLB let the Ricketts accumulated in their LBO of the Cubs) than a baseball move

Dave Cameron: You do realize that Samardzija was once a “pitching prospect”, right? To say that you expect any trade to be bad, no matter who they get in return, because you don’t trust pitching prospects shows a weakness in your analysis, not in the Cubs analysis.

Comment From Jake
How would you recommended buying 10+ tickets to a game? Never bought this many at once

Dave Cameron: Depends on where you’re going and with who. If you want to be able to converse with everyone, get 5 seats in two rows, one behind the other. Having a line of 10 people in the same row makes for limited social interaction.

Comment From Guest
what do you make of the LaRussa hiring in the desert? Does it mean he’ll be back in the dugout by next season? or the he’ll name himself Towers’s successor? Or that he’ll work more in exec capacity? Since LaR seems to be such a hands on guy, I have a hard time seeing him and KT lasting long together.

Dave Cameron: Towers and Gibson are going to get fired, and LaRussa is going to bring in his own guys. For Arizona, this isn’t really a step forward. LaRussa is not the guy to fix what ails them.

Comment From Krusty
Assuming Scherzer remains healthy & reasonably consistent thru the end of yr, will he get a bigger, smaller or the same contract as Kershaw?

Dave Cameron: He won’t get Kershaw’s deal, but he might get $200M from someone.

Comment From Claudio
All of Francisco Liriano’s peripherals look great aside from his walk rate and elevated HR/FB%. Any chance he gets his walk rate back down to last years rate or is this the type of control you expect him to display all year?

Dave Cameron: He’s never been particularly consistent. Trying to predict Liriano’s outcomes is not easy.

Comment From majawi
Do the Mariners pick up K. Morales now?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I would bet he’s on their roster in the not too distant future.

Comment From Julian
What’s a good stat to gauge the contributions to a team that a relief pitcher makes? Does WAR have a way to properly value high leverage situations that are essentially the turning point of a whole game?

Dave Cameron: WAR includes leverage, so a pitcher who pitches higher leverage situations will get more credit than one who pitches mop-up duty. However, they don’t get 100% of the credit for the leverage they are used in, because if a reliever gets hurt, that leverage isn’t assigned to a replacement level arm; everyone in the bullpen just moves up a spot. You don’t want to give a reliever 100% credit for his leverage.

Comment From Jed Hoyer
What should my priority be in dealing Samardzija: help for the dreadful OF, or a quality SP prospect?

Dave Cameron: Best package of talent.

Comment From Will
Does Joey Gallo’s prospect profile still hold a lot of risk, or is he now a legit top tier prospect?

Dave Cameron: Those two things are not mutually exclusive.

Comment From Benji
Do you think Jamie Garcia can get back to his 2012/2013 numbers this year

Dave Cameron: He’s always been pretty good when he’s healthy. No reason to think that will be different this time, until he gets hurt again.

Comment From Capn America
Made some sense that the Red Sox jumped ahead of the draft to sign Drew. They must’ve though the Tigers were real competition for Drew once draft passed. Still, Boras must no have been convinced they’d make solid offer for him to have ok’d Drew to sign now.

Dave Cameron: I think the reality is that the offers from all interested teams would have been about the same, especially once you account for pro-rated amount. No one was going to give him $20 million for half a season or anything.

Comment From _David_
It always seems like the people who criticize WAR are skeptical of UZR regarding defensive overachievers…but if there were measurement issues, wouldn’t there also be a chance those same players were being underrated?

Dave Cameron: Not the same chance, no. If you have a +30 UZR, it is more likely that you are in the +15 to +30 range than the +30 to +45 range, simply because it’s nearly impossible to get enough marginal plays to save 45 runs per year. But your overall point is correct; people like to assail defensive metrics primarily when they want to justify their own position of ignoring defense.

Comment From dustdevil
Thoughts on Kolton Wong going forward? Can he become a fixture in the two hole for the Cards?

Dave Cameron: I’m not a huge Wong fan. Doesn’t make a lot of contact, not much power, isn’t a big walk guy.

Dave Cameron: He’s not awful, but very limited upside.

Comment From Will
Are Keuchel’s projections downgraded because of his poor history, or at this point do the projection systems ignore all that because of his new repertoire and recent success?

Dave Cameron: You never ignore history.

Comment From Harvey Weewax
What are Melky and Colby worth (term/amount) on the open market? Tell me they don’t come anywhere near close to what Choo got.

Dave Cameron: They won’t get anywhere near Choo’s deal. I see Rasmus in the Upton range, maybe a little less, and Melky will settle for short-term deals until he retires. Maybe he gets three years if someone really gets aggressive, but no one is giving him a long contract.

Comment From Will
Are frontline innings eaters, like Shields, becoming more valuable due to the recent spate of injuries to pitchers.

Dave Cameron: No, because there’s no reason to think that guys like Shields are immune to injuries .

Comment From DC
What are your thoughts on the Tampa Bay Rays. Are they getting unlucky or is this what we should expect from them

Dave Cameron: They’re not this bad, but that’s a flawed team with some real problems that aren’t going away.

Comment From Julian
Do you ever see data collection and analyzes evolving to a point where different value is given to events based on context? Like a game winning homer off Kershaw being more valuable than a homer off a a AAA spot starter when the player’s team is already up by 7. Or even without the timing of it, just by difficulty. Getting a hit off a hanging curveball versus a nasty slider, for example.

Dave Cameron: We already have that. There are plenty of context-dependent stats on FanGraphs, but they don’t really answer the questions that most people are usually asking.

Comment From doffbhoya
The Cubs’ renaissance is supposed to happen in 2015-16, but they don’t really have the pitching at any level to pull it off. Do the cubs have any options besides paying top dollar for Scherzer?

Dave Cameron: The best pitchers in baseball include the likes of Jesse Chavez and Dallas Keuchel. Pitching is weird. It comes out of nowhere.

Comment From pr
if you were Cherington, what would your max offer be to Lester?

Dave Cameron: 6/100ish.

Comment From Garth Vader
Really digging RE24 recently. I read Tango prefers RE24 over wRC+ given enough data. Your thoughts? I like wRC+ since it’s a solely about just the hitter, but I love the context dependency of RE24

Dave Cameron: It all depends on what question you’re asking. It’s like preferring a hammer to a staple-gun.

Comment From David
The Most underrated player right now has to be Josh Donaldson… doesn’t get any mainstream press

Dave Cameron: Brian Dozier.

Comment From Marco
Kluber: Carson’s love-fest aside, how good is this guy?

Dave Cameron: Pretty good.

Comment From John
Speaking of extensions, will the Blue Jays extend Brett Lawrie?

Dave Cameron: That’s the kind of guy you want to go year to year with, I think.

Comment From JC
Is it time to sit Adams vs LHP? .143/.167/.200 is kind of bad right? Tavares in CF/RF and Craig at 1B/RF depending on LHP/RHP?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think the Craig in RF/Adams at 1B experiment isn’t a good one. Those two should share time at 1B.

Comment From Matt
Based on your piece about the emergence of Dozier, you think it would be wise for the Twins to offer him a long-term extension? Any thoughts on what that contract would look like?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d try to get him locked up sooner than later. He’s still in his pre-arb years, so the guarantee is probably in the $30 million range or so.

Comment From Kevin
i heard somewhere that the pirates have to play .667 baseball over the next 25 games to get back to .500. safe to say they are out of it

Dave Cameron: They’re in trouble, but they’re not dead in the water yet.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Are there any teams poised to challenge the Tigers in the AL Central over the next few years?

Dave Cameron: Not really. The Royals young core was overrated and Dayton Moore hasn’t done a good job of building a roster around them. The Indians are probably the next best team in that division, but they have their own problems.

Comment From RK
re Zobrist 2.0, yet but Dozier doesn’t have the position flexibility of him. I’m predicting Franklin will become Zobrist 2.1

Dave Cameron: Having a good 2B play the OF doesn’t make him more valuable, really.

Comment From Grady
Which player in recent memory had the biggest difference between “traditional stats” and “advanced metrics”? one where AVG/RBI, etc showed a “great” player and advanced stats said otherwise…to the greatest degree

Dave Cameron: Ryan Howard.

Comment From Faust
Thoughts on the Reds injuries and playoff prospects? Who will be the strongest team in the NL central by ASB?

Dave Cameron: The Cardinals are still the best team in that division. The Reds lack of depth is a real problem.

Dave Cameron: When Brayan Pena is your backup first baseman, you’ve done something wrong.

Comment From Aaron
In the end, do you think Drew “lost” 4 million dollars? Had he signed at the beginning of the year, the Sox would have had the opportunity to offer him another QO (which will be roughly 16 million) or 30 million for 2014-2015. Will he gain that 4 million dollars back because there is no draft pick compensation attached to him in 2015?

Dave Cameron: We’ve estimated that teams are putting roughly a $5 million valuation on the QO, so he probably comes out about the same.

Comment From JohnnyFive
I’ve read about Verlander’s fall from great to just kind of good a lot lately, but it seems like he’s always just one mechanical tweak away from dominating for a stretch. Thoughts on his future?

Dave Cameron: Jeff will have a post on that this afternoon, actually.

Comment From Greg
Do you think teams should hold off on extending average players like Gyorko and let them go to arbitration? Is the advantage gained from these long deals worth the risk for this type of player?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I wouldn’t rush to extend guys with limited upside.

Comment From Steve
Bruce is a 4 WAR player, Myers doesnt even look like a 2 WAR player

Dave Cameron: He has racked up +3 WAR in less than a full season at ages 22/23.

Comment From Kevin
how much can a pitcher control his HR/FB? I understand that its a little random, but a pitcher can control, in theory, whether or not a pitch gets demolished, right? thinking of bailey and price this year

Dave Cameron: Yes, a pitcher can throw pitches that are more likely to get hit for HRs, but MLB pitchers are good enough to choose not to do it. Rather than saying they have no control, it’s more accurate to say that the spread of talent among MLB pitchers in HR/FB ratio is something like 8% to 12%. Pitchers at this level get selected in large part by not throwing meatballs too often.

Comment From Steve
Francisco is a different type of player than Bautista and Encarnacion, but does that mean he cant be a powerful force in the lineup?

Dave Cameron: A guy with a 30% K% can’t be as good as a guy with a 15% K%, all other things equal. So even if Francisco keeps drawing walks and hitting for power, he won’t turn into an elite hitter. The swing-and-miss is just too high. Doesn’t mean he can’t be a useful role player, but the contact problems limit the upside.

Comment From Jaack
Whinier fanbase in the comment section: Giants or Braves?

Dave Cameron: It’s really just a few people from each fan base that make the rest of them look bad.

Comment From Owen S.
Why is it WAR instead of WAAP (wins above average player). Seems like WAAP would be easier to calculate. It’s also just as fun to say, so there’s that.

Dave Cameron: Because if you set average as the baseline, a useful role player who is slightly below average will grade out worse than someone who never plays. That’s just not true. A +1.5 WAR player would be -0.5 WAA, but he’d still be more valuable than a backup who never takes the field. WAA would get that wrong.

Comment From Jimbo
Would it be wise for the Rockies to trade Tulo right now? I doubt they have a legit contender on their hands, and they could ask for the kings bounty in return.

Dave Cameron: Trading a franchise superstar signed to a bargain contract in the midst of the team’s revival… you might as well just burn the stadium down.

Comment From Carl
I’ll be in Winston Salem for the weekend. Any good restaurant recommendations?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what kind of food you like, but my current favorite rec is Sweet Potatoes on Trade St. It’s southern/soul food, so don’t go for the salad, but it’s delicious.

Dave Cameron: Hit me up on Twitter if you want more recommendations.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
With WAR and all those advanced metrics coming out, how much value do you put into actually watching a player perform?

Dave Cameron: I think watching the game is important for understanding how players succeed. If you put what you see above what a player does when you’re not watching, though, you’re probably overrating your own ability to evaluate talent.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
If researchers find scientific evidence that PEDs do infact help pitchers stay healthy and avoid TJ and other arm surguries, are you all for legalizing them?

Dave Cameron: If it can be proven that a substance can help a pitcher avoid an arm injury, then I don’t see how it’s not considered medicine at that point.

Comment From john
If you were re-tooling a major league team, would you build with pitching or with hitting? i just keep thinking the mets are doing this wrong.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, you prefer a core of position players who aren’t likely to need surgery at some point.

Comment From AJ
Hi Dave. With the Rays slow start, percent chance that David Price is moved before the deadline, and what is a fair return? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think the Rays could very well deal him this summer. He’ll command a big return.

Comment From Meano Eno
If you’re Drew why do you even listen to Boras at this point? I’m sure he’d much rather be playing now than waiting for June and making a few extra million (if that would even happen) from the competition from other teams.

Dave Cameron: It’s easy to say “just a few extra million” when it’s not your money. If someone told you to wait a month and it would earn you a few extra million, you’d absolutely do it.

Comment From Jimbo
Do you still take defensive metrics with a grain of salt? I know they are a good start, but watching a player on defense still has to be the #1 method of evaluating that skill right?

Dave Cameron: I’m continually amazed at the the fact that people think that the numbers, based on a multitude of people watching every play, are biased and unusable, but that their own perspective, based on watching some plays by some players, is not.

Dave Cameron: DRS and UZR are based on people watching a player play defense. If that’s what you think matters most, then you should love those metrics.

Comment From Sam
Who do you think are candidates to accept a Qualifying Offer this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Victor Martinez.

Comment From Ryan
Re: Dozier Extension– what are the odds an extension for Dozier turns out like Gyrko’s?

Dave Cameron: Well, Gyorko is like a month into his deal, so we don’t actually know how that deal has played out yet.

Comment From Guest
Re Dozier, isn’t it a little soon to call him most underrated? Even if you think he can sustain this year’s elite production,

Dave Cameron: As I noted in the piece on Fox, he’s been a +5 WAR player over the last calendar year, totaling 158 games and nearly 700 PA. This isn’t a two month thing.

Comment From David
How much of run prevention would you say is attributable to the pitcher, and how much to the defense? Obviously it would be a range based on the type of pitcher, but is there a reliable estimate?

Dave Cameron: I think the general consensus is that it’s something like 80/20 or 85/15, in favor of the pitcher. With the rise of strikeouts in MLB, maybe it’s pushing closer to 90/10 now.

Dave Cameron: Run prevention is mostly pitching, with some defense.

Comment From Relentless Shoehorn
RE: Trading a franchise superstar signed to a bargain contract in the midst of the team’s revival… you might as well just burn the stadium down… But couldn’t they ask for enough to make them better now and later? (ex to cards for Tavares, Wacha, Wong, Martinez)

Dave Cameron: If the Rockies are getting better, than the Cardinals are getting worse. And the Cardinals don’t want to get worse.

Comment From Chris Davis Arms
Did you get a chance to read Rany’s article on Grantland yesterday about submarine pitchers (and Ziegler in Arizona)? At one point he posits that submarine pitching is one of the most undervalued commodities in the game because these guys are historically durable, solid and affordable, and then wonders if teams should begin to convert MiLB players into submariners for new starts. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I haven’t read it, but submarine pitchers have enormous platoon splits, so you can’t really put them in the rotation or the closer role. They are limited to middle relief, because they have to be used selectively based on who is coming up in the lineup.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to go do some more work. Thanks for hanging out this week, everyone.