FG on Fox: Ben Zobrist 2.0
For years, there’s been a pretty easy answer to the common question of “Who is the most underrated player in baseball?” It’s Ben Zobrist. It was Ben Zobrist last year, and the year before that, and the year before that. It’s probably been Zobrist since his breakout year in 2008. If you want to win a bar bet — and you happen to be at a bar where the patrons know what Wins Above Replacement is — the “Ben Zobrist has a higher WAR than Robinson Cano over the last six years” factoid is a pretty good place to start.
But Ben Zobrist is still human, and humans don’t age particularly well when it comes to athletic competitions. Next week, Zobrist will celebrate his 33rd birthday. His power is already starting to wane, as just 10 of his 40 hits this season have gone for extra bases, continuing a trend towards weaker contact that began last year. He’s also slowing down and is not the dynamic baserunner he was a few years back. While he remains an excellent defender and a player who can still control the strike zone, he’s becoming more of a good player than a great one. After years of being underrated, Zobrist is finally regressing into the player that people have thought he was.
And so now, it is probably time for him to pass the torch, and to anoint a new Most Underrated Player in Major League Baseball. Interestingly, the prime candidate looks an awful lot like the incumbent.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Confusing ending, an incumbent is someone replacing the former, so is the “prime candidate”. Typo maybe, you left me hanging there though. Who is the incumbent? My guesses are Arenado, Owings, maybe Blackmon?
Click on the article link
Please look up the meaning of “incumbent” in any English dictionary.
I’m not naive enough to argue with you here, I stand completely corrected. I suppose its definition has been lost in my vocabulary after being out of college for what seems to be TOO LONG. Apologies.
Huzzah! Some Brian Dozier love! I know he’s getting a lot of value from his walks, but it’ll be interesting to see if he can keep up the power.
Interesting to compare Dozier’s and Zobrist’s HRs in recent years: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2014_311&type=hitter
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2014_422&type=hitter
Lots of Plenty’s and a few Just Enoughs. Zobrist pretty much only pull power to right, Dozier to left. Dozier elevates the ball a lot more, and Zobrist hits it harder. I hope he can keep it up for the Twins’ sake because they have little else without him.
Haha, duh. Great article. What are the chances I can trade Zobrist for Dozier? Zobrist has been on my team many times because of his eligibility at multiple positions and overall production in many categories, the fact that you’re eluding to his loss in power and age (maybe why he’s on the DL already) scares me a bit.
As a current Dozier owner (and former Zobrist owner), if someone made that offer to me, I’d laugh in their face. I’d like to have Zobrist on my team–getting decent production with that kind of versatility is an asset. But Zobrist isn’t worth a top-5 player at any position.
Agreed. I offered Zobrist and Carpenter (even though the Cards offense seems to finally be coming around) for Dozier and Prado. That’s a reasonable offer right???
Even if you found someone who’s bearish on Dozier and trying to sell high, they’d need to be awfully bullish on Carpenter to even consider that offer. Dozier provides plus contributions in four categories, and there are very few second basemen you can say that about. Dozier is very, very valuable, and if you own him, you probably want a top-10 starter or top-5 player at some other position in return.
To put this in perspective, here are the hitters that have provided more value than Brian Dozier in standard fantasy leagues this season:
-Tulo
-Charlie Blackmon
-Stanton
That’s the whole list. That’s how valuable Brian Dozier has been in the fantasy context this season. Finding that kind of production in a middle infielder is rare, to say the least. Even if Dozier regresses–and there’s little evidence to suggest he will–he will still be well above average, at a position where well above average is hard to find.
In fact, a Dozier regression would leave him with counting stats similar to Zobrist’s career year, with Zobrist being clearly superior only in batting average. Dozier continuing at his current pace would far outstrip even Zobrist’s best season in four of the five standard fantasy categories. If anything, comparing Dozier to Zobrist undersells Dozier’s power-speed combination, which is currently one of the best in all of baseball. Perhaps Dozier is just on a two month hot streak, but even a cooled-down Dozier is a valuable asset, and if the past two months are Dozier’s true capabilities, you really, really want to own that.
Must be the letter Z both have in their last name. Yup, that’s it.
I think the key reason guys like Dozier and Zobrist are underrated is prospect pedigree, not skillset. Look at Andrew McCutchen. He has good power but not ligh tower power. He’s fast and a good runner base runner but not a prolific one Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon. In fact he’s actually a pretty inefficient base stealer. His walk rates and on-base numbers are very strong. His defense in center field, according to UZR, has been very good twice, very bad twice and scratch twice. Like Zobrist and Dozier he’s played most of his career on dreadful teams in small markets. A lot of similarities between the three. Again, I don’t think it’s skillset so much as pedigree. We all knew who McCutchen was before he got his first MLB AB. And when he developed into a really-good-at-everything, great-at-nothing player, it didn’t detract from how he has been perceived. He’s viewed as a star player and rightly so. Zobrist is a late bloomer that nobody had heard of. That’s the difference.
Dozier actually compares really well to Ian Kinsler. Both were later-round draft picks out of college. Coming up each lacked the prospect pedigree at 2nd base and came into the league around 25 y.o. Both players have pull power which allows them to hit more HR than one might expect given their stature. They also derive a large amount of their values by way of defense and baserunning, and by being great around the clubhouse if you’re into that sort of thing (grittiness). If you look at Kinsler’s career track record it’s not too much of a stretch to see Dozier doing something similar to that for the next several seasons.
F Fox.
I really wanted to post “Fangraphs on Fox Comments on Fangraphs”, but there weren’t any.
Dozier might end up being the most underrated player in baseball if he continues to perform well and continues not to be recognized for it. As of now, it is very hard to make the case, given that his accomplishments consist of one solid season and two great months. While this adds up to a 5-WAR calendar year, which is excellent, one such year doesn’t seem like enough to put you in the conversation. Guys like Alex Gordon, Chase Headley, and Josh Donaldson seem more deserving. And if these guys are too well-recognized, how about guys like Lucroy, Frazier, or Seager, all of whom, unlike Dozier, have been 3-4 WAR players for two full calendar years.
You could argue that none of these guys project as well as Dozier and you might be right; even though they have about the same ROS WAR as he does, I would probably bet on Dozier if I had to bet. But I think underratedness has to be based on actual performance, not projected performance.
Well yeah, those guys might have a longer track record, but we’re not looking for the next 3-4 WAR player, we’re looking for the next Zobrist, a guy who’s last 5 seasons have been 8.5, 3.7, 6.3, 5.8 and 5.4, his worst season was still a 3.7 Win year! Dozier, with his baserunning, defense, walks and power has the chance to be that kind of player, a real difference maker that nobody has ever heard of
Sure, Dozier has the chance to become that guy but he hasn’t actually done it yet. As you point out, what’s notable about Zobrist is that he has been so great for so long without being adequately recognized for. Underrated is based on accomplishments, not potential, because nobody deserves credit for their unrealized potential. Plus, how do we know he won’t get proper credit in the future? Saying someone has the potential to be the most underrated player in baseball makes no sense. You either are the most underrated or you’re not — and Dozier isn’t.
What about Joey Bats. He might have forgone 300 career home runs messing around with the wrong swing.
Both of you make very good points.
Dozier hasn’t been good long enough to anoint him just yet.
I think the next title holder is probably one of those great framing catchers, maybe Lucroy.
Zobrist isn’t even good, never had a 100 RBI season.
Would you trade Cano for a good package, on the assumption that Dozier keeps it up? Small league, w/ no MI slot, just two UTILs.