FanGraphs Chat – 5/28/14

Dave Cameron: Two months of baseball in the books, and now things get kind of interesting. Go ahead and fill the queue with non-fantasy questions and we’ll get to it at noon.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this shindig underway.

Comment From Will
Is Toronto regretting their inability to sign Santana even more now that it looks like their offense is so legit?

Dave Cameron: From what I’ve heard, they thought they had him signed, but he ended up in Atlanta because he didn’t really want to go to Toronto. I’m not sure you can regret someone not wanting to play for you.

Comment From Theo Epstein
With the logjam in the outfield for the dodgers who do you see making a deal for Joc Pederson? With him currently hitting in the PCL what chances would you give his power making an impact in major league parks?

Dave Cameron: I think the Dodgers will keep Peterson and trade Kemp this summer.

Comment From Sincerely Yours
Do you think that Mat Latos’ return helps spark a Reds team?

Dave Cameron: Can he hit? Because if not, then it won’t matter.

Dave Cameron: Realistically, the Reds just aren’t that good.

Comment From Johnny Rockets
When looking at the flyball average distance and angle at baseballheatmaps, for all intents and purposes, the more flyballs a player hits a greater distance to the pull side, the more likely they’re to hit HRs? For example, when looking at Pedro’s profile, he’s hitting a bunch of balls far (40@302ft), but to the opposite field(-7.55), which results in a lower than expected HR total.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s easier to pull a ball out of the ballpark than to drive one out the other way.

Comment From benj
If you’re the Brewers GM, are you looking to move some of your pitching talent? Who would you try to move, and what would you look for in return?

Dave Cameron: Do the Brewers really have an excess of pitching talent? I don’t see it, and I don’t think teams would be knocking down their door to get their pitchers.

Comment From _David_
How much longer do you think “payroll considerations” keep the Mariners from signing Morales? Is Franklin a primary DH viable?

Dave Cameron: That Morales hasn’t signed yet suggests that Boras is going to hold him out until after the draft to see what the market is without the draft pick attached. My guess is that teams still won’t be all that interested, because Kendrys Morales is still not that good.

Comment From Sean
So, Collin McHugh. Dem Strikeouts, man. What the heck? Is it really as simple as dropping the 2-seamer for the 4-seamer?

Dave Cameron: Certainly, a four-seamer will get more whiffs than a two-seamer, but still, this is a pretty huge change. If it was just McHugh, I’d be a little more skeptical, but given Keuchel’s breakout, can’t rule out environmental factors that might make this more sustainable.

Comment From Mike
What should a team expect to give up for the Shark in Chicago?

Dave Cameron: A couple of prospects in the 50-100 range, plus some filler.

Comment From Marc
If you were AA, would you feel more comfortable trading Sanchez for the Shark at this (+others) point relative to Stroman (+others)?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think Sanchez is easier to move.

Comment From Mike
What does the ceiling look like for Puig?

Dave Cameron: Manny Ramirez.

Comment From adam
what do the tigers do at SS? Romine all year? any trade options? farm system is weak.

Dave Cameron: They’ll pick someone up in July or August.

Comment From RK
How much money do the Dodgers need to eat to make Kemp have trade value?

Dave Cameron: A lot. Maybe $30-$40 million.

Comment From JTC
Why have the media (and FG) darling Rays been so bad this year?

Dave Cameron: Their pitching sucks.

Comment From jocephus
who would you rather have at first, matt adams or allen craig? (taveras not part of equation)

Dave Cameron: Craig.

Comment From Colin
What are your thoughts on Buck’s IBB to Reynolds with the bases loaded/2 outs last night? Insane, no?

Dave Cameron: Writing about this for the afternoon, but yes, crazy pants.

Comment From Jim
Does the A’s low team BABIP combined with an MLB-“worst” GB% suggest that their offense has been underachieving even *with* the most runs per game?

Dave Cameron: No, it suggests that fly ball hitters will run lower BABIPs.

Comment From David
Two seasons in a row where my highly touted Nats finish the first third of the season with a disquieting mix of injury and under-performance. Is there something structurally wrong here in DC? Or is it just the same bad luck twice?

Dave Cameron: There’s no reason to think that the Nats injury problems are anything other than random.

Comment From _David_
What do the Mariners see in Stefen Romero?

Dave Cameron: Right-handed power. They like one dimensional guys who occasionally hit home runs.

Comment From Fitz
In retrospect, how much of a mistake does the Verlander contract/extension look?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t give up on him just yet. Transitioning away from being a power pitcher takes some time. As long as he’s not hurt, I’d bet he’ll adjust.

Comment From Matt
Think there’s any chance the Braves try to acquire someone like Aaron Hill or Brandon Phillips?

Dave Cameron: Probably not. I think they’ll go cheaper/younger.

Comment From Devin
Do you think the Pirates are just in a down year or has their window closed already?

Dave Cameron: Down year. They’ve got a good young core, but they have to surround it with better veterans.

Comment From primantis
Is the platoon advantage greater for left handed pitchers than it is for right handed pitchers? If so, why?

Dave Cameron: Yes. No one knows for sure, but it’s theorized that left-handed batter see fewer LHPs in their development cycle, so they don’t acclimate to same-handed pitching as well.

Comment From Revolver
As a Cubs fan, I’m wondering where the pitching is going to come from by the time they’re ready to compete in 2016 or ’17. Shipping Shark to Baltimore for Gausman or Bundy seems like a good start.

Dave Cameron: Pitching comes out of nowhere. I wouldn’t worry about what your pitching staff will look like in four years. No one knows.

Comment From Woods
Why has Carlos Santana turned into 2011 Adam Dunn at the plate? More walks than hits, and not all that much power. And how does a player end up with more walks than hits? Wouldn’t pitchers just pound the zone at some point?

Dave Cameron: Don’t propagate the myth that walks are the pitchers fault and not driven by the hitter. Santana’s BABIP won’t stay this low forever.

Comment From chuckb
You’re the GM of a mid-market, average team and your owner just “found” $5 million for you to spend any way you want. Would you spend it on adding to the current roster, player development, professional scouting, amateur scouting, or something else?

Dave Cameron: Depends on my infrastructure, but I’d probably spend it on building out baseball ops department. Trackman systems in every minor league park. Hire Alan Nathan and Dan Brooks.

Comment From Art Vandelay
Where does Cliff Lee play at year’s end?

Dave Cameron: Probably still in Philly. Going to be tough to move that contract for anything coming off an arm injury. Will need him to get back on the mound and prove he’s healthy, and probably won’t have time to do that before July 31st.

Comment From Snoth
Who are your division and WC winners?

Dave Cameron: I think the NL playoff teams are the ones currently in the lead: WAS/ATL/STL/SFG/LAD. The AL’s top four are pretty clear too, with OAK/LAA/DET/TOR. The only real toss-up is the second AL Wild Card, which I’d still lean towards Boston.

Comment From Bret
Can you please explain this Blue Jays offseason to me? How can a team with that much invested to a last place team not make any significant moves?!

Dave Cameron: They bet on positive regression to the mean, and it’s worked.

Comment From Caleb
If the Red Sox are sellers at the deadline, who do you see them moving?

Dave Cameron: There’s basically no way they’re sellers at the deadline.

Comment From Kevin
Is there something about the mechanics/pitches thrown by pitchers such as Drew Smyly that pitch almost exclusively high in the zone that makes this strategy viable? or would he be even better if he could just keep the dang ball down?

Dave Cameron: Pitching up in the zone gets you more swings-and-misses at the cost of giving up more home runs. Pitching down in the zone leads to more contact. One is not clearly better than the other.

Comment From Guest
Is Alex Cobb a future injury candidate?

Dave Cameron: Is he a pitcher? Then yes.

Comment From Guest
Now James Paxton has been shut down with shoulder inflammation. Would you be concerned about him?

Dave Cameron: He has a very long history of arm problems. This shouldn’t be a surprsie.

Comment From Shark? Shark!
Sounds like the Cubs want a Garza-esque haul (I suppose why wouldn’t they) for Shark, maybe 2 of the O’s solid 4 arm prospects. Is that too steep for the O’s?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Orioles are good enough to justify that kind of price.

Comment From chuckb
When the Cards call up Taveras, presumably pretty soon, what are they going to do with him? How much CF do you expect him to play? What happens to Craig/Adams?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine Craig/Adams will go back to sharing first base, mostly.

Comment From Guest
Will we see Mookie Betts call up to the show this year?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think so.

Comment From Clayton
What should Atlanta do at 2B? Pastornicky/Pena not doing much/any better than Uggla and La Stella has limited upside.

Dave Cameron: They just called up La Stella, so it looks like its his turn.

Comment From Alex
Interesting. Who do you think WANTS Kemp?

Dave Cameron: I think that the Dodgers could generate interest if they either took on a bad salary coming back or picked up enough of the deal.

Comment From Lars
Nelson Cruz has been a bargain for the O’s with his $8M contract. The O’s may land Samardzija. Obviously they won’t be looking to trade Cruz at the deadline. If the keeps this up and has a huge year, what kind of contract does he get?

Dave Cameron: He won’t keep this up.

Comment From Ghost Hands
What kind of moves do you see the Giants and Rockies making at the deadline (if any)? LA is still the most talented team in that division.

Dave Cameron: Giants are one of about 15 contenders that could use a better second baseman.

Comment From Darryl
How good do you think the Giants really are and will end up being? They have yet to have Sandoval and Posey hitting at the same time

Dave Cameron: Regression works both ways. Can’t just add in improvements from Panda/Posey and act like Tim Hudson is a true talent 1.80 ERA guy.

Comment From Fitz
Do you think the Red Sox will end up resigning Lester? Would it be smart to at this point?

Dave Cameron: I think he leaves. Very few free agents get to free agency and then still re-sign with their own teams.

Comment From benj
More alluding to the fact that the presence of a couple of MLB ready arms (Fiers and Nelson) in AAA are either good assets, or they make a rotation piece in Milwaukee expendable.

Dave Cameron: Fiers is not a commodity, really. Teams don’t value guys who throw 85. Nelson is okay depth, but again, none of the Estrada/Gallardo/Lohse/Garza guys are going to generate a ton of trade interest.

Comment From John Cena
Think Wheeler ever cuts down on the walks?

Dave Cameron: Ever? Sure. Question is whether he can do it before the velocity also goes, taking away the strikeouts.

Comment From Justin
Do you see a rebound from the two big “struggling” or hurt Rays – Zobrist & Price?

Dave Cameron: Price isn’t really struggling; he’s just given up a few extra homers. It happens. I think he finishes the year in another uniform, however.

Comment From Only Hugh Can Prevent Florist Friars
You had mentioned a few weeks ago that you believed that Noah Syndergaard (possible spelling error) was the only high level pitching prospect that you thought was not overrated. Why is that?

Dave Cameron: I’ve just never been particularly high on the Taijuan Walker/Archie Bradley/Jameson Taillon grouping.

Dave Cameron: It felt, to me, like this group of “top pitching prospects” got overrated because someone had to be anointed the top pitching prospect, not because they were actually that great.

Comment From Pauls Boutique
Can the Angels win the West? Or is a wildcard a more distinct possibility?

Dave Cameron: The west is still winnable, but they’ll need Trout go be a monster and they’ll have to stop playing Raul Ibanez.

Comment From Guest
Who benefits the most between Bal or Tor by trading for the Shark?

Dave Cameron: The Blue Jays, as they are actually likely to make the postseason.

Comment From lunch
the braves announcers were ready to name teheran a top 10 pitcher based on an era that looks pretty dependent on pitching in front of the braves defense. how do you rate him?

Dave Cameron: Outside the top 10.

Comment From Cambridge
Does the FG staff ever do any hangouts in the Washington DC area, like they have in SF?

Dave Cameron: We’re going to do one this summer or fall, I think.

Comment From Alex
Which AAA pitcher would you call up to replace Clay in the Red Sox shoes?

Dave Cameron: I’d just move Chris Capuano back to starting.

Comment From Cory
But do the Nats injury problems completely explain their mediocre record?

Dave Cameron: Pretty much, yeah.

Comment From Christopher
Which player do you think will perform better for the remainder of the season once called up – Taveras or Polanco?

Dave Cameron: I like Polanco more.

Comment From Zach
Hypothetical alternate version of baseball where teams have two separate offensive and defensive teams (like football). Is run-scoring higher, because you’re finding the 9 best hitters, is it lower because you could put 9 ultra-premium defenders in the field, or essentially the same?

Dave Cameron: Higher, for sure. Replacing light-hitting infielders with big sluggers would have a much larger influence than upgrading defenders.

Comment From brad
not a criticism of WAR, but a genuine question: why does Greinke have such a lower WAR than his xFIP, ERA, and K-BB% peers?

Dave Cameron: Because he’s given up a bunch of home runs.

Comment From SK
Just finished your really great post on the Jays and positive regression. I wanted to ask about your quote at the end about 2B being the place to upgrade for the Jays… doesn’t the status quo the last few weeks work pretty well? given Tolleson’s decent splits against LHP (134 WRC+ in his career) and Francisco crushing RHP while playing 3B (and Lawrie at 2B).

Dave Cameron: It would work if Juan Francisco was a great hitter. He’s not.

Comment From brad
If Manny is the ceiling for Puig, who would be a realistic floor?

Dave Cameron: Every player’s floor is washing out of the league entirely.

Comment From Logan
What kind of return can the White sox get for Alexei Ramirez from a team like the Yankees?

Dave Cameron: He’s going to be an interesting summer target. Contract is fine, performance is good, but he specializes in the wrong kind of skills, generally. I think he’ll bring back a solid prospect, but not any kind of huge return.

Comment From Pax
What do you realistically see McHugh doing going forward? Is he better than, say, a healthy Jaime Garcia?

Dave Cameron: A healthy Jamie Garcia is one of the better pitchers in baseball, so no.

Comment From Billy Hamilton
Will the Reds move a starting pitcher at the deadline? If so, is Cueto, Latos or Simon the most likely to go?

Dave Cameron: If they become sellers, I think they have to seriously think about trading Cueto. Probably can’t afford to sign him long-term, and his value will never be higher.

Comment From Gila Monster
Do you think the mainstream media has a responsibility to use advanced statistics in order to most accurately report on a team, even if the “average person doesn’t care”. For example, GDP and CPI are things most people don’t really don’t understand, but would use at the dinner table to prove their point. Why can’t that be WAR?

Dave Cameron: No, they don’t have a responsibility to use certain numbers. They do have a responsibility to tell truthful stories, but you don’t have to actually quote the numbers to do so.

Comment From the Average Sports Fan
Re: Reds. I agree they are not that good. Both Latos and Cueto free agents after 2015. Trade either, neither or both?

Dave Cameron: Latos’ value is low due to injury, so probably keep him and let him build back up in second half.

Comment From Bret
If you had to pick either of these philosophies for drafting, which would it be: A) Draft as many pitchers as possible because so many of them will break down. Or B) Focus on drafting hitters, because they are more predictable and pitchers will come out of nowhere.

Dave Cameron: B early, A late.

Comment From Dylan
Do you find it interesting that the arguably the two most savvy teams(the Rays and A’s) took complete opposite approaches to catching? Rays went pitch framing and A’s went under appreciated bats.

Dave Cameron: Value comes in different forms.

Comment From Guest
Surprised we haven’t heard more about MLBAM’s new tracking data/cameras. Any updates to how it’s going?

Dave Cameron: They released a few more examples last week, but I’ve heard that there are more hurdles to clear than they anticipated.

Comment From Guest
apparently cubs are scouting gausman, are the o’s crazy to trade him for shark?

Dave Cameron: I’d say yes, but primarily because i don’t think the O’s are good enough to justify a win-now move.

Comment From Ben Cherrington
Should I give Jackie Bradley more time to prove himself, or get him back to AAA ASAP?

Dave Cameron: The 30% strikeout rate is a huge problem. He probably needs some AAA time.

Comment From Not Troll
So Chris Young´s WAR to date this year is 0. Is it possible that some replacement level players are more valuable than others, and that this is not just random?

Dave Cameron: Young has always been a guy who outperformed his FIP.

Comment From Gibb$
5 pitchers you always make a point to watch on mlb tv?

Dave Cameron: They’re all hurt.

Dave Cameron: Okay, not entirely true. I love watching Adam Wainwright.

Comment From slim
In Mookie Betts, are we just getting too excited over Emilio Bonifacio 2.0?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure there have been worse comparisons in history, but that’s the worst one I’ve heard recently.

Comment From JBD
Mookie for Shark (in real life)?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think Red Sox would do that.

Comment From Howya gettin on there bahd!
Are you a fan of using prospects more as trade chips than couting on them to play for your team?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the prospects. I’d have much less of a problem trading away pitchers than hitters.

Comment From Guest
Do you read the community blogs? Have you ever learned something new from them?

Dave Cameron: All the time. And our newest hire, August Fagerstrom, now writes for us because of the work he did in the Community Blog.

Comment From JEB
Dave, I have a friend that does not believe in park factors. He swears that with Petcos dimensions that it is a hitters park and vice verse with hitters parks. What can I show him to convince him, not just the data, but an actual explanation. Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Talk to him about weather. The real driver of a park’s offensive environment is temperature, humidity, and altitude, not wall dimensions.

Comment From Theo Epstein
What is your favorite ballpark?

Dave Cameron: I like Camden a lot.

Comment From uruguayan
What are the top three likeliest destinations for David Price at the deadline? And what are the odds he’ll be moved?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up in STL. They’ve got a ton of the kinds of players that TB will be interested in.

Comment From hooha
Assuming (or more aptly praying) that Amaro is fired at the end of this year, when do you see a compentent GM able to put a winning team back on the field for the Phils?

Dave Cameron: It’s going to be a long road back for the Phillies.

Comment From Guest
What kind of contract will Lester earn? Would you rather sign Lester or Scherzer?

Dave Cameron: Lester will get 6 or 7 years, $100 to $120 million. Scherzer will get more, and he should.

Comment From Guest
August Fagerstrom has been a really nice addition to the FG bench. Really enjoying his work.

Dave Cameron: Me too.

Comment From Finkel
What position will Kris Bryant play in the majors?

Dave Cameron: Third base.

Comment From Tom
Were the Royals prospects overhyped or are they just bad at developing prospects?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From slim
yeah, puig’s floor (like everyone) is that he dies in a fire, but you’d be surprised by a total collapse, right? What is the lowest outcome that you’d see and say ‘that was possible given his skills’?

Dave Cameron: Daryl Strawberry?

Comment From Guest
Is it more realistic that the Blue Jays go after a guy like Liriano vs. Simardza? If so, what would be a likely package for Liriano?

Dave Cameron: I think they might end going more for Jason Hammel types.

Comment From Mike
How’s Rick Hahn doing in Chicago?

Dave Cameron: Fantastic.

Comment From Jakerrr
Francisco doesn’t need to be a great hitter for the Tolleson/Lawrie/Francisco platoon to work. ZIPS has him at 113 wRC+ for ROS. That’s obviously better than league average and the supporting cast is excellent. All teams have holes somewhere.

Dave Cameron: He has to play defense too.

Comment From Purdie
Should Pitcher contracts be structured/valued to provide for the seemingly inevitable major injury? Like a 7 year contract is really assuming 6 healthy years, with a bonus attached to total number of starts/innings, etc? or is that even possible?

Dave Cameron: I like the John Lackey clause that Boston got on that deal. If a pitcher misses a year, a year gets added to the deal.

Comment From Guest
Price to St. Louis? Wainwright, Price, Wacha, Lynn, Miller, Kelly, Garcia. Who is left off the playoff rotation? Kelly, Lynn, ???

Dave Cameron: Miller shouldn’t be anywhere near a postseason rotation right now, Garcia is regularly injured, and both Lynn/Kelly would be fine additions to the Cards postseason bulpen.

Comment From Mike
Garrett Richards the AL version of Michael Wacha? Just a bit more of a late bloomer. Angels would be lost without him (more than they already are).

Dave Cameron: Wacha has far better command and a far better change-up.

Dave Cameron: Okay, the dog is awake and demands play time. We’ll do this again next week.