FG on Fox: Positive Regression in Toronto

by
May 28, 2014

Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays were supposed to be contenders.

They were crowned the winners of the off-season after acquiring Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, and Melky Cabrera in the same winter, giving their roster a big boost on paper. On the field, though, it didn’t work.

Johnson was lousy and injured, while Buehrle and Dickey failed to improve the rotation much even though they avoided the DL. Reyes and Cabrera both struggled with injury issues of their own, with Cabrera performing as one of the worst players in baseball when he did play. Instead of joining the A’s, Indians and Pirates in the Postseason of the Upstarts, the 2013 Blue Jays instead became another reminder of the perils of trying to build a team around splashy, big-name acquisitions.

Coming off a miserable season, the Blue Jays backed off from aggressive off-season upgrades. They signed one free agent to a Major League contract: Dioner Navarro, a part-time catcher signed for part-time money. Despite being linked to big names like Jeff Samardzija, the team’s most notable trade involved reliever Brad Lincoln going to Philadelphia for backup catcher Erik Kratz. Basically, the Blue Jays stood pat, despite what looked to be glaring holes in the rotation and at second base, not to mention all the questions about the big-names who disappointed so dramatically a year ago.

So, put it all together, and you have a last-place team that made no substantial upgrades over the winter, built around a core group of players that are almost universally on the wrong side of 30. That’s not a classic recipe for success, but as we head towards June, the Blue Jays are alone atop the American League East, and they now look like the prohibitive favorites to win the division.

How did the Blue Jays fix themselves by doing nothing? There are two primary, obvious differences between this year’s model and last year’s version.

Read the rest on FoxSports.com





 

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Bleedblue
9 years ago

The 2b weakness may not be as bad as it seems now that Goins and Izturis are gone. Francisco is playing 3b vs righties with Lawrie moving to 2b it should be manageable. Plus Tolleson has been great so far when needed and should be adequate against lefties going forward with Lawrie back to 3b. This team needs Jeff Samardzija fast.

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JohnMel
9 years ago
Reply to  Bleedblue

Its not nearly that bad and actually Dave has misspoken as the A’s, Braves, Cardinals, Giants, Orioles, Yankees and Brewers have all had less WAR from 2B then the Blue Jays (as per fan graphs)

1 month ago that would have been true but the Lawrie/Tolleson platoon has been working really well. Over the last 30 days the Blue Jays have 1.1 WAR from 2B which is 4th in the MLB.

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Canard
9 years ago
Reply to  JohnMel

Just because other good teams have holes at second base does not make your own hole at second base any less glaring.

Yes, Tolleson and Francisco have performed well so far, but let’s see them continue this for a bit longer before we declare them good.

Hopefully, they keep it up.

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Steve
9 years ago
Reply to  Canard

I agree, but the point is the Jays by far need to look at adding a SP long before they need to address their 2B situation, as the article suggests.

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JohnMel
9 years ago
Reply to  Canard

With the overall offensive production on the team the Blue Jays can live with poor production at 2B. Even if Francisco flakes out the Blue Jays can recall Ryan Goins who will provide positive value on his defensive numbers alone. I am just calling out the fact Dave said 2B was their #1 priority to fix and its a glaring hole compared to other contenders which is not remotely true.

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AL Eastbound
9 years ago
Reply to  Bleedblue

Getting the Shark would be a definite upgrade but no way they can move Hutchison in that deal (if rumored asking price is true) as it would be one step forward, one back in terms of production.

Giving up Sanchez AND Stroman would be too rich as well.

Not sure they fit for a deal unless the price comes down – which is doubtful.

4
JCougar
9 years ago
Reply to  AL Eastbound

Samardajia is waaaay over-rated. He’s had 1.5 good seasons under his belt at this point, and this year’s results are suspect due to his declining K/9. And he’s on the wrong side of the aging curve. He strikes me as a solid back of the rotation guy from here on out…but he’s being treated like an Ace. Hutchison has to be an absolute no on the Jays’ end, and I wouldn’t deal Stroman even by himself for the Shark. I think the Cubs are going to get a decent return, though, because Samardzjia has they kind of hype around him that will make gullible GMs overpay.

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Jakerrr
9 years ago
Reply to  Bleedblue

Right on the money. I’ve been impressed with Tolleson so far. He’s obviously way overperforming but his minor league numbers support a strong OBP against lefties. It seems like a reasonable solution in the short-term but I’m not sure it’s a viable option for a team with World Series aspirations. But you’re right, the need for pitching far outweighs the need for a 2B. Shark or bust.

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