FG on Fox: Positive Regression in Toronto
Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays were supposed to be contenders.
They were crowned the winners of the off-season after acquiring Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, and Melky Cabrera in the same winter, giving their roster a big boost on paper. On the field, though, it didn’t work.
Johnson was lousy and injured, while Buehrle and Dickey failed to improve the rotation much even though they avoided the DL. Reyes and Cabrera both struggled with injury issues of their own, with Cabrera performing as one of the worst players in baseball when he did play. Instead of joining the A’s, Indians and Pirates in the Postseason of the Upstarts, the 2013 Blue Jays instead became another reminder of the perils of trying to build a team around splashy, big-name acquisitions.
Coming off a miserable season, the Blue Jays backed off from aggressive off-season upgrades. They signed one free agent to a Major League contract: Dioner Navarro, a part-time catcher signed for part-time money. Despite being linked to big names like Jeff Samardzija, the team’s most notable trade involved reliever Brad Lincoln going to Philadelphia for backup catcher Erik Kratz. Basically, the Blue Jays stood pat, despite what looked to be glaring holes in the rotation and at second base, not to mention all the questions about the big-names who disappointed so dramatically a year ago.
So, put it all together, and you have a last-place team that made no substantial upgrades over the winter, built around a core group of players that are almost universally on the wrong side of 30. That’s not a classic recipe for success, but as we head towards June, the Blue Jays are alone atop the American League East, and they now look like the prohibitive favorites to win the division.
How did the Blue Jays fix themselves by doing nothing? There are two primary, obvious differences between this year’s model and last year’s version.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
The 2b weakness may not be as bad as it seems now that Goins and Izturis are gone. Francisco is playing 3b vs righties with Lawrie moving to 2b it should be manageable. Plus Tolleson has been great so far when needed and should be adequate against lefties going forward with Lawrie back to 3b. This team needs Jeff Samardzija fast.
Its not nearly that bad and actually Dave has misspoken as the A’s, Braves, Cardinals, Giants, Orioles, Yankees and Brewers have all had less WAR from 2B then the Blue Jays (as per fan graphs)
1 month ago that would have been true but the Lawrie/Tolleson platoon has been working really well. Over the last 30 days the Blue Jays have 1.1 WAR from 2B which is 4th in the MLB.
Just because other good teams have holes at second base does not make your own hole at second base any less glaring.
Yes, Tolleson and Francisco have performed well so far, but let’s see them continue this for a bit longer before we declare them good.
Hopefully, they keep it up.
I agree, but the point is the Jays by far need to look at adding a SP long before they need to address their 2B situation, as the article suggests.
With the overall offensive production on the team the Blue Jays can live with poor production at 2B. Even if Francisco flakes out the Blue Jays can recall Ryan Goins who will provide positive value on his defensive numbers alone. I am just calling out the fact Dave said 2B was their #1 priority to fix and its a glaring hole compared to other contenders which is not remotely true.
Getting the Shark would be a definite upgrade but no way they can move Hutchison in that deal (if rumored asking price is true) as it would be one step forward, one back in terms of production.
Giving up Sanchez AND Stroman would be too rich as well.
Not sure they fit for a deal unless the price comes down – which is doubtful.
Samardajia is waaaay over-rated. He’s had 1.5 good seasons under his belt at this point, and this year’s results are suspect due to his declining K/9. And he’s on the wrong side of the aging curve. He strikes me as a solid back of the rotation guy from here on out…but he’s being treated like an Ace. Hutchison has to be an absolute no on the Jays’ end, and I wouldn’t deal Stroman even by himself for the Shark. I think the Cubs are going to get a decent return, though, because Samardzjia has they kind of hype around him that will make gullible GMs overpay.
Right on the money. I’ve been impressed with Tolleson so far. He’s obviously way overperforming but his minor league numbers support a strong OBP against lefties. It seems like a reasonable solution in the short-term but I’m not sure it’s a viable option for a team with World Series aspirations. But you’re right, the need for pitching far outweighs the need for a 2B. Shark or bust.
Good piece.
“Last year, the Blue Jays gave away three full-time players’ worth of at-bats to below replacement level performances.”
I think this is the key takeaway. The Jays literally made themselves worse giving so many PAs to Maicer Izturis and JP Arencibia. They also made their pitching staff markedly worse off with such a stiff behind the plate.
There lineup is deep and should keep them in most games if they can remain healthy. Not sure how there current rotation holds up the rest of the way or if Drew Hutchison can last the entire season (he has to be on an innings count no?) but it has been a nice turnaround story on the mound as well.
Not exactly a fearful 4-man unit in a playoff series but that lineup could really wear down the opposing pitching staffs (and especially bullpens) if they managed to make it.
As a Jays fan I am just happy to be watching some inspired play after last seasons debacle.
Thank you Dave for not lazily repeating the narrative that the jays have been “healthy” this year, like every single other analyst is saying! The Jays have had DL stints for their starting SS, CF, DH, 2B, #3 SP, #4/5 SP, Closer, and backup Closer. Thank you for not continuing the Healthy Jays myth.
As others have pointed out, though, the 2B issue is both over and understated here. Right now its actually anything but a hole, and may in fact be the biggest upgrade over last year.
Because the abominable izturis/bonifacio platoon from last year has been replaced with the ridiculously hot francisco/tolleson platoon, with lawrie shuffling positions to make it work.
2013
Bonifacio 282pa, 55wrc+, -0.4war
Izturis 399pa, 63wrc+, -2.1war
Total 681pa, ~60wrc+, -2.5war, -2.4war/650pa
2014
Francisco 114pa, 168wrc+, 1.2war
Tolleson 51pa, 177wrc+, 0.6war
Total: 165pa, ~171wrc+, 1.8war, 7.1war/650pa
So you may be underrating the massive impact this upgrade has had on the team, while at the same time overrating the need to upgrade the position.
Obviously francisco/tolleson won’t continue this ridiculous level of production, but at least there’s not an urgent need to find another solution at the moment.
And if we look at francisco’s career numbers, his mlb line vs. RHP in 760pa is an .819ops and 122wrc+, so really the only potential urgent need might be to get a better righty bat than tolleson, as unlike Juan his minor league numbers say he’s just not very good.
There’s the defense question but i think jays fans have been pleasantly surprised on both fronts. Francisco lacks range but he’s got a good glove and very good arm. Lawrie doesn’t have the nuances down at 2b but his range looks plus even in the middle infield, and his arm helps cover mistakes too. Neither are great defensively in this set up (yet) but it isn’t the disaster many of us feared it might be.
J.Francisco (27), career numbers:
MLB vs. RHP: 760pa, 8.4bb%, 32.8k%, .261/.326/.493/.819, .353woba, 122wrc+
MiLB* v RHP: 256pa, 4.7bb%, 17.2k%, .346/.379/.584/.963 (* – since 2011)
Defense @ 3B: 1066.1in, -3drs, -3.2uzr/150
Pretty solid platoon player, really.
Agreed, and the best part is that this success should be sustainable. Hopefully they can resign Melky after the year. They can cut ties with Rasmus (and get a 1st round pick) and Morrow and re-invest that money in a quality SP, and possible the lighter part of a 2B platoon. And run with Gose as your CF and #9 hitter.
As a long-suffering Jays fan, I’m want to see that Fightin’ Irish alumnus in the rotation just as much as the next guy, but not at the cost of Stroman and/or Hutchison. Hutchison is developing into a solid starter and has room to get a lot better. Stroman is awesome, in a Tom Gordonesque-career-path kinda way. That kid has a nice cutter, and I’m hoping they use him in the rotation in the very near future. The cost to acquire Samardjiza is too high, if these reports are to be believed.
I think the Jays greater need is general lineup depth. If they are serious about making a playoff run, aside from the obvious need to upgrade 2B (which has been a constant, talent-less abyss for the past 18 years, with the exception of Aaron Hill’s 2007 & 2009 seasons), indeed, aside from that, they could really use a couple of multi-position bats on the bench (e.g., Mike Aviles, Scott Hairston, former bluebird Kelly Johnson, etc.) Injuries are unavoidable, and they will happen with the usually expected frequency for players in their 30s.
I dig the Navarro/Kratz catching tandem. Navarro must be at least a little adept at handling a staff; however that is assessed, I don’t know, but he has previous experience working some pretty good staffs in Tampa and briefly in LA. Kratz has some all-or-nothing pop against lefties and can spell Navarro. Actually, Kratz may have to play a little more often over the next week after that thump to Navarro’s finger, on the hand he catches with.
Based on how bad the Yankees and Red Sox are this year, and the problems with Tampa and Baltimore that need more than 1 or 2 additions to fix, I think if the Jays can avoid major injuries to their key bats and arms, they have a very real shot at winning the division, even without adding any players. To advance in the playoffs, they do need another SP to emerge, and some upgrades on the bench. I think the bullpen has overcome it’s recent disastrous performance prior to the winning streak, and will be stronger when Santos returns.
The Jays have finally taken flight, and that sweep of Oakland suggests it’s for real this time….
The jays have had plenty of injuries already, and their depth has hele up nicely. In fact they’ve been more injured than most.
DL Stints:
1. Starting SS Reyes
2. Starting CF Rasmus
3. Starting DH Lind
4. #3 SP Morrow
5. Closer Janssen
6. #4/5 SP Happ
7. Starting 2B Izturis
8. Backup Closer Santos
9. #8/9 RP Wagner
10. #8/9 SP Nolin
And that doesn’t count the games missed by lawrie and navarro that weren’t quite bad enough to need a dl stint.