FanGraphs Chat – 7/24/13

Dave Cameron: One week until the trade deadline, but since there’s nothing really happening there, we can talk Trade Value series, playoff races, or anything else (non-fantasy) that you guys are interested in. I will note that some people complained about the five or six or however many Mariners questions I answered last week, so I’m going to put a cap on Seattle questions this week.

Comment From The Man in White
Who hangs up first? Bautista for Profar + mid-tier prospect to be named later.

Dave Cameron: Probably the Rangers. I think they’re going to hang on to Profar and dangle him to Miami for Stanton whenever the Marlins get around to deciding to trade him.

Comment From Zach
Brett Talley mentioned in a recent article that a roof closure in Arizona could benefit pitchers. Arizona is generally known as a hitters park. Has anyone at FG every studied if this changes when the roof is closed? For that matter, what about other parks when the roof is closed?

Dave Cameron: Safeco is significantly more hitter friendly with the roof closed than open. My guess is that enclosing an open stadium would push it towards neutral, as it would reduce environmental effects.

Comment From Los
Does McCutchen have a chance at the MVP this year? Are he and Yadi 1/2 right now?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they’re the frontrunners.

Comment From Guest
How many more years would you predict that Trout stays in the top 2?

Dave Cameron: Depends on health/performance of course, but I’d imagine he’ll be there for at least the next few years, and then his next contract will determine where he goes from there.

Comment From JFree
Braun next year — how would you personally adjust his projections assuming that he was dirty and will now be clean?

Dave Cameron: Not at all.

Comment From Gary
Regarding the Alexei Ramirez for Carlos Martinez rumor. There had to be additional kick in on the White Sox for the Cards to do it right? Alexei is better than Kozma, but just barely…

Dave Cameron: Heyman already shot that rumor down.

Comment From Rob
If you were a GM, would you be willing to take on either Hamilton’s or Pujols’ deal if it meant you got Trout?

Dave Cameron: Either yes, both no.

Comment From Sam
You seem to think that David Price will most likely be traded in the offseason. I get that he will be expensive, but I see him as a guy the Rays pay for for just 1 more season. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: His trade value will peak this winter, and the Rays know what they’re doing.

Comment From Will
KC gets a lot of flack for the Myers/Shields trade, and rightly so. But is Tampa Bay regretting that trade right now as well. Shields really could have put them over the top this year, and they still could have traded him for something in the off season.

Dave Cameron: Myers is producing in the big leagues for the league minimum, and they took the money they would have given to Shields and spent it on other players. So no, they’re not regretting it at all.

Comment From Aaron
How impressive is it that the Brewers turned K-Rod into a real live prospect?

Dave Cameron: It’s a serious sellers market.

Comment From Will
With a little time to reflect, do you regret any of the decisions you made with the trade value series. Would you change it at all today if you were asked to update it?

Dave Cameron: Pedroia would go up a few spots now that he’s signed a team friendly extension. But that’s about it.

Comment From Izzy
How does Fangraphs divide the 1000 replacement level wins between pitchers and position players? I know B-R uses 59% to position players.

Dave Cameron: 57/43.

Comment From Will
Sandy Alderson said a while back he would have to be blown away to trade Byrd. Why does that make any sense. Shouldn’t he be happy to get anything in return for him, even if it is just some org depth guys.

Dave Cameron: Middling teams are putting a high price tag on mediocrity. It’s silly.

Comment From Bret
It’s kind of a disaster in Toronto. With all the money they’ve spent, the sense is that they get one more kick at the can next year or everyone loses their jobs. How can they improve this team in 2014? Is it as simple as hoping the pitching rebounds?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s basically what needs to happen.

Comment From Caveman Jones
I’ve heard a lot about Xander Bogaerts ceiling, but what do you think is his floor?

Dave Cameron: His floor is a total bust who never amounts to anything, just like pretty much every other big league player.

Comment From Izzy
Is it possible to get ZIPS ROS projections for players for whom they don’t exist. I think it’s mostly guys who didn’t play at a certain level last year. Puig, Jose Fernandez, Wacha, Gausman, Yelich, etc.

Dave Cameron: Ask Szymborski on Monday.

Comment From Michael
What do you think the pirates do this deadline, if anything at all?

Dave Cameron: Make a deal with Chicago teams. Peavy/Schierholtz seems logical.

Comment From Drew
What’s your gut feeling on where Cano goes and for how much? I say NYY at 7/135.

Dave Cameron: He’ll get a lot more than that. I’d say NYY at 8/200.

Comment From Mark
Dave, concerning A-Rod and potential lifetime ban not passing an arbitrator: Can’t Selig just enact the “best interests of baseball” clause a la Pete Rose/Shoeless Joe and that’s that?

Dave Cameron: Not without serious proof.

Comment From chuckb
Is there a site that you know of that has data on the velocity of balls hit by MLB hitters? Has anyone done any sort of analysis to determine the correlation between MPH and BABIP or wOBA or anything like that?

Dave Cameron: ESPN Home Run Tracker has this for home runs, but not other types of hits.

Comment From Dennis
Nothing happening? K-rod to the O’s for Nicky Delmonico? Thoughts? Worth it for a reliever of questionable character?

Dave Cameron: Delmonico sounds like a mediocre prospect, only ranked highly in Baltimore’s system because their system isn’t very good. That said, I wouldn’t have given up much for K-Rod.

Comment From Chris Davis Arms
If certain players are worth a certain amount of money (theoretically), who wouldn’t it benefit for teams to put a substantially higher AAV on the contract? So, for example, who doesn’t benefit from a 4yr/100mil dollar deal for a player rather than a 7yr/100mil dollar deal? Team gets out before the deal becomes worthless on the back end (and get their guy), player gets back into FA quicker. The teams are going to be spending this money regardless.

Dave Cameron: You do realize that a team that signed a player for 7/100 could “get out” of the deal after year four by releasing the guy, and it would have exactly the same effect as signing him for 4/100 in the first place, right? Only by doing 4/100, you give up the rights to three years of value if the player is playing well. It makes no sense for teams to do this.

Comment From Zach
Am I right in saying that my fellow Pirates fans shouldn’t be freaking out about losing Grilli as much as they are? I mean, Melancon just shifts to the closer role, and he’s arguably been better this season, and Justin Wilson, who has pitched brilliantly, shifts to the setup spot. Not to mention, they have tons of bullpen depth. We will be fine in the bullpen, right? RIGHT?!

Dave Cameron: It’s not the end of the world, but they don’t have any guys pitching as well as Grilli to fill Wilson’s role, and you can’t ignore the drop-off in middle relief.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
is it possible Profar’s bat got overatted/ folks assumed it would develop faster/more than it has/will?

Dave Cameron: He’s 20 and in the big leagues. Adjust your expectations.

Comment From Bird
What do you think of Christian Yelich? Any comps that are currently in the bigs?

Dave Cameron: I’ve heard Nick Marakis and Shawn Green, which I guess suggest that he’s seen as a double hitters rather than a big power guy.

Comment From AL
So knowing what you do now with Braun, would you include him in the top 50?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Terry
What kind of prospect could the Cubs actually fetch from the Yankees? I guess it depends on how much Soriano salary the Cubs actually eat?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s all going to depend on cash transfer. I’d guess Cubs end up eating most of the deal and get an okay prospect back.

Comment From Euler:Pimp4Life
Recent Miami roster moves, why do they make sense?

Dave Cameron: They don’t, really, but it’s the Marlins.

Comment From ben
Who says no to Peavy for Ranaudo/Owens?

Dave Cameron: Boston.

Comment From chuckb
Jose Iglesias, 2013…is he equal to Pete Kozma, 2012 or is he better than that?

Dave Cameron: Better defender.

Comment From Forsyth
If the Red Sox were willing to give Bogaerts, and the Rangers were willing to give Profar for Stanton, who would you project comes down with him? Would it begin to revolve around who gives up the better secondary pieces?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Stanton won’t be going away for one player. It’s going to be a big package built around several premium prospects.

Comment From ryan
Can you tell us who would likely have been in the 6-10 spots on the anti-trade value list had you gone past five players?

Dave Cameron: Teixeira was #6, and just barely lost out to Fielder for the final spot. After that, no one else was too seriously considered.

Comment From Sirras One
Wheeler for Stanton, who hangs up first?

Dave Cameron: Unless by Wheeler you mean “Harvey”, the Marlins.

Comment From LarryA
Do the Nationals have anyone they can trade away, that wont hurt their chances next year

Dave Cameron: Rafael Soriano.

Comment From Tom
More likely to reach 100 WAR – Pujols or Trout?

Dave Cameron: Pujols is already at +90, right? Him.

Comment From Mario Incandenza
Say, any chance you could make the default on the player stat pages to be NOT to show minor league stats? It’s visually distracting and I’m generally not that interested in how guys did on their 3-game rehab assignments…

Dave Cameron: I’m pretty sure you can change this in your profile settings.

Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan
For players like Jake Peavy or Alex Rios who have another year under contract after this one, would they have higher trade value now or in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: Now.

Comment From Forsyth
The prices being paid right now for these arms is disgusting.

Dave Cameron: This is what happens when all the sellers are too chicken to sell.

Comment From Andrew McCutchen
Does Gregory Polanco have a higher ceiling than McCutchen? Reports are that he’s a higher rated prospect than McCutchen was at a younger age.

Dave Cameron: Those reports are wrong.

Comment From P
Is Jake Peavy worth a top prospect? Does his extra year at $14.5M help or hurt his value?

Dave Cameron: Helps.

Comment From Mark
Would you give up 2 B+/B prospects for 2 years of Bud Norris at an estimated $11M through arb, assuming you view him as a No. 3 starter on a playoff-contending team?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t give up much of anything for Bud Norris, who isn’t very good.

Comment From Tom
Whats your guess on what happens to Arod?

Dave Cameron: Gets suspended for 100+ games.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
There has to be a market inefficiency for the next team to decide they are sellers from that group of teams 5-6 games under .500 right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, any of these pretenders could get a ransom by actually taking advantage of the market and putting their players up for sale.

Comment From Ed
When you think of a highly rated prospect who completely busted out, who comes to mind first?

Dave Cameron: Brien Taylor.

Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan
Do you think the White Sox would get more or less for Peavy than what the Cubs got for Garza?

Dave Cameron: Less.

Comment From Medic Hernandez
Do you think the Rangers regret not overpaying to sign FA Cliff Lee in Winter 2010?

Dave Cameron: Didn’t they then use that money to sign Adrian Beltre? I think that’s turned out okay.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
would you rather have Cano at 8/200 or Pedroia at his new 7/100 extension?

Dave Cameron: Pedroia, easy.

Comment From cano follow-up
wouldn’t 8/200 for an aging middle infielder be extremely silly? when are these 8 and 9 year deals going to end? Seems it’s only wise when the player is very young a la miggy.

Dave Cameron: Teams have a lot of money. It is flowing down to free agents in extra years instead of higher AAVs. We just have to adjust our expectations, and not judge a contract based on whether it will be bad when it ends.

Comment From Chris
Did you consider Josh Donaldson in your trade value series — basically free for the foreseeable future, and top 20 in baseball in WAR…

Dave Cameron: He was an honorable mention. Track record too short, not that young.

Comment From Tim
In chats and articles, you constantly refer to GM’s and front office people as “a lot smarter than you.” What skills do they have that make them so much smarter than you? Seems like your one of, if not the smartest advanced stat guy out there.

Dave Cameron: You wouldn’t say that if you met a lot of these guys working for teams. They make me look like an idiot.

Comment From Pat
Is having power only to your pull side a problem when evaluating prospects?

Dave Cameron: It isn’t the end of the world, but it’s better to have power to all fields.

Comment From zack
Do you think the tigers will be able to sign Scherzer longterm? They have a ton of money tied up with Verlander/Fielder/Future Cabrera extension/ and Sanchez.

Dave Cameron: At some point, they’re going to have to have to make a tough decision. Whether that’s Scherzer, Fister, trying to trade Fielder, whatever, they can’t keep all these guys.

Comment From STiVo
Which player’s exclusion would you say caused the most vocal reaction in your trade value series?

Dave Cameron: Mariners fans were annoyed that I left Kyle Seager off the list, but I might have seen more of that because I hear more from Mariners fans than others.

Comment From Allan
Handicap the AL MVP race for me: Trout, Cabrera, Davis, other

Dave Cameron: Cabrera’s going to win in a landslide again.

Comment From Internet User Since 1995
How does Fangraphs construct its rest of season standings? (I assume it’s different than Coolstandings, which uses a modified pythag, then runs one million rest of season simulations.)

Dave Cameron: It’s a pythagenpat calculation based on a hybrid of ZIPS/Steamer forecasts for players and the depth charts maintained by our authors. But keep an eye on CoolStandings, as you might see something “cool” over there soon.

Comment From chuckb
Could the Cards put together some sort of Shelby Miller for Profar deal (maybe adding a little) this offseason? Should they, if Profar doesn’t end up sentenced to 6 years in Miami?

Dave Cameron: That’d be an interesting one-for-one swap. My guess is neither team would do it.

Comment From Marcus A.
Oliver Perez has to be out the door, right? Seller’s market, only around for the rest of the year at a cheap price, having a great year. He’s gone by next week, no?

Dave Cameron: He should be, but don’t overestimate a GM without a contract wanting to save his job.

Comment From Vin
At this point do you think Josh Johnson is most likely to accept a QO and try again for a multi year deal next year?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that seems the most likely scenario.

Comment From DNA
Why, when Houston calls up prospects from AA is it a good strategy to throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks, but when Miami does it it’s a horrible decision sacrificing their future?

Dave Cameron: Houston didn’t call up their top prospects from AA.

Comment From Joseph
People continue to praise the Astros current “process”. But the owner is making money hand-over-fist due to TV revenue and lack of payroll without even trying to put a decent team on the field (heading towards third straight #1 overall pick). How much longer can this go on before it’s a full-blown scam?

Dave Cameron: You won’t be complaining when the Astros #1 picks are helping carry them to winning seasons.

Comment From chuckb
What should the Nats do? Stand pat and pray it all comes together?

Dave Cameron: I’d trade Soriano to free up spending money for the winter.

Comment From Prich
How long would it take to enact your idea of extending the trade deadline… Is it something that could get done in one (meaning this) offseason?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if MLB wanted to, they could move it next year.

Comment From zack
Best guess on where David Price is pitching next season?

Dave Cameron: The Cubs.

Comment From Neil
Is RA9-WAR essentially bWAR with UZR instead of DRS? The correlation is like .95 and I’m trying to figure out the difference.

Dave Cameron: There is no defensive adjustment in RA9-WAR. It is strictly runs allowed.

Dave Cameron: Well, with park/league/leverage factors still included.

Comment From Seattle Fan
Given that your limiting Seattle questions here, how about a USSM chat or maybe a new post every once in a while.

Dave Cameron: Mid-to-late July is the busiest time of year for me, between the Trade Value series and the deadline. I’ll probably post over there in August.

Comment From Neil
In thinking about a playoff roster, would you rather use a bench spot on a great pinch runner, a lower contact power bat, or a high contact low power guy? Assume you’re covered for defensive replacements already and you’re a pretty balanced team.

Dave Cameron: Pinch runner.

Comment From Sam
Who is the most egregious non-seller at this point?

Dave Cameron: The Royals. They could get a mint for Shields and Santana.

Comment From Matt
Red Sox send Bogearts, Bradley, and Owens to Miami for Stanton, who says no? They resign Ellsbury so they don’t need Bradley.

Dave Cameron: I think the Marlins probably ask for more.

Dave Cameron: But it’s close.

Comment From zack
Pretty much any big money deal for a player over 30 is going to bad at the end isn’t it?

Dave Cameron: Well, depends on the years.

Comment From Guest
To paraphrase Jeff Sullivan, why does DJ Farquhar have a 7.4 ERA with Aroldis Chapman’s FIP and Yu Darvish’s strikeout rate? Small Sample Size or potential harbingers of doom?

Dave Cameron: It’s a reason why ERA is useless for relievers.

Comment From BassmanUW
I’d presume the decrease in Braun’s trade value isn’t because you think his production will decline, but instead for a combination of concerns about a player who got caught in the manner he did (got busted once, got off on a technicality, got busted again, and lied a whole lot in that process) is more likely to try to skirt around the rules again and PR issues related to acquiring Braun?

Dave Cameron: I’d say it’s mostly just that teams aren’t going to want to pay a high price to deal with that kind of headache.

Comment From Guest
Not questioning the answer, but could you explain why you think Garza nets more than Peavy? In the last year+, Peavy has given provided 5 WAR, while Garza has provided 2. Peavy has an extra year so there is some value without having the risk of long term. Both have missed a few starts. What am I missing?

Dave Cameron: Garza has been more recently healthy and effective.

Comment From BassmanUW
Also, big difference between what you do and what GMs do, and this isn’t to ding what you do: if your praise or pan a deal and end up being wrong, you get to go back and write an article on why your initial analysis may not have been right. If a GM makes a deal and it goes wrong, he can get fired.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s no real comparison between my job and a GMs job. My job is way easier.

Comment From Jays fan
What does Trout have to do to win MVP, excluding Cabrera injury/regression?

Dave Cameron: Figure out how to get the Angels into the playoffs. If they miss the playoffs, he has no shot.

Comment From Matt
It seems the next big step in evaluating offense will be shifting away from outcome based analysis to objective swing/contact data. How will the sabermetric community adjust if in 15-20 years front offices are working with completely different data then what is available to us?

Dave Cameron: The question is how much of a difference those stats make. If it’s just a small improvement and results prove to be a decent proxy, then it won’t matter that much. If it’s a game changer and batted ball angles/velocities/trajectories prove to be great predictors of success, then we’ll have some problems.

Comment From Matt
What is your opinion on hiring former players for the GM job? Just running through the list of current GM’s I noticed 10 of them had some form of professional experience (largely in the minor leagues with almost none of them significant mlb players). This is in comparison to the NHL which has around half of the GM’s as former players, many being good pros. It seems to me focusing on the group of former players as GM’s is not the way to find the best guy to run your organization.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t think playing baseball and running an organization have much in common.

Comment From Karl
Can you give your rational as to why Kipnis got 27th on the trade value list and Seager was left off? Seager can play 2B too.

Dave Cameron: Seager is a third baseman. Saying he’s a second baseman because he played 10 games there last year is like saying Josh Donaldson is still a catcher.

Comment From BassmanUW
True or false in today’s baseball marketplace: Anyone who reaches free agency is inherently flawed in some way? Either they are reaching an age where decline is typical, they have injury issues, or have a skill set that raises concerns.

Dave Cameron: False: they could also just be a late bloomer. Or put a lot of stock in Scott Boras’ advice.

Comment From SEW
RA9-WAR uses ERA or just RA?

Dave Cameron: RA, thus the name.

Comment From Eddie
Price to the Cubs? Are they that close?

Dave Cameron: They’re not as far away as people think.

Comment From Jeff
I thought Matt Garza wasn’t worth a top prospect?

Dave Cameron: He didn’t get traded for a “top prospect”. Mike Olt’s contact/vision problems have seriously degraded his stock. I like the package the Cubs got, but it’s more quantity than quality.

Comment From Michael
can you explain why bud norris sucks? 3.92 era, 3.82 FIP. his k numbers are down from previous years, but thats it.

Dave Cameron: Huge platoon splits, not worth starting in a playoff game against a team with a line-up of good LHBs, which is most of them.

Comment From Bruce
Could the royals get more for shields now than Myers?

Dave Cameron: Maybe.

Comment From oak tree
how many hours a week do you work? I think GM’s and their staff have crazy long hours with no other life.

Dave Cameron: This is one of the main reasons I don’t work for a team. I take most weekends off, which is unheard of for a team employee.

Comment From Guest
Any material you could suggest on understanding SABR with more effeciency?

Dave Cameron: The FanGraphs Library, The Book.

Comment From Dude
Forget who will win. Who do you think should win AL and NL MVP if the season ended today?

Dave Cameron: Cabrera/Molina.

Comment From JH
4/$60 this offaason for Ellsbury. Over or under?

Dave Cameron: Way, way over.

Comment From Baron Von Waffles
I love all the saber numbers and new analysis coming out helps me understand what is truly happening with a player. However at what point do people start to focus on the results. (Someone’s BABIP never regressing positively)

Dave Cameron: Never is a very long time. The lis of players whose BABIPs “never” regress is very, very short.

Comment From Preston
Re: Seager vs. Kipnis. What is the positional difference between 2b and 3b? I seem to remember you writing an article saying there wasn’t much of one.

Dave Cameron: Practically, there isn’t a huge difference. That’s not how it is perceived among teams, however, and the list was trade value, not actual value.

Comment From Reddickulous
Ok, edjumacate me: why is it a “seller’s market,” and what does that even mean?

Dave Cameron: The demand for talent from contenders far outstrips the amount of talent available from non-contenders, so buyers are paying inflated prices for the guys that are available.

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Why are so many big money contracts backloaded? Wouldn’t it make more sense to frontload them so you get the best performance for the right amount of money? Then when the guy is 38 and average you aren’t paying them $25M.

Dave Cameron: Time Value of Money.

Comment From Neil
Is managing editor of Fangraphs your dream job? Seems like you’ve found the field you enjoy, but do you have any long term interest in moving into a front office or a different form of analysis?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know if I’ll do this forever, but I don’t really have much interest in leaving FanGraphs any time soon. David Appelman is great to work for, I love what I do, and I get to work from home and set my own hours. It’s pretty tough to beat my current setup.

Comment From Guest
Hows the pup?

Dave Cameron: Bitey.

Comment From Ambitious Fangraphs Reader
I was interested in an internship at Fangraphs and you said to email you. Anything I should send you or keep in mind when doing so?

Dave Cameron: Explain why we should invest our time into you and the skills you bring to the table.

Comment From steve
Dave, where is all your moral outrage?

Dave Cameron: I save it for things that actually matter.

Dave Cameron: The fact that writers get so upset about a player using PEDs, but have no concern over a buscone who was accused of abusing teenagers in his baseball camps and stealing all their money is ridiculous to me.

Comment From chuckb
What kind of a baseball player were you? I know you played C in HS, but were you a starter? How good? All-district/region/whatever?

Dave Cameron: I played for a small school, so I started because I had a pulse and knew the rules. I was probably the best player on the team, but that’s not saying much. I think I was named a conference All-Star my senior year, but still, pretty small little pond.

Comment From GSon
Puppies that bite..will continue to bite if this behaviour is not controlled fully and completely removed. The means by which you stop this behavior requires that when the puppy bites, use you thumb and fore finger and clamp down on the puppies lower jaw between the fangs and hold on firmly until the puppy gives up and stops the behavior. When the puppy stops (gives up) reward the puppy with a pet or a treat.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, we’ve tried/are trying that. Also tried bitter apple spray, redirecting her to chew toys, standing up and not moving, leaving the room… so far, she still likes to bite.

Comment From Jim
Do you love the South but find certain things about it incredibly frustrating?

Dave Cameron: Don’t know if I “love” the south. Parts of it — cost of living, friendliness of people, zero traffic — are great, and some of it — humidity, racism — are not great.

Comment From GSon
forget the sprays.. forget the toys.. you have to clamp and hold every time until she understands..it’s a behavior that is unacceptable.. You’re supposed to be the alpha in the house.. your will RULES.. the puppy will follow if you do..

Dave Cameron: The markings on my hands from the razor blades in her mouth suggest that she doesn’t quite see it your way yet.

Comment From Movementarians
Love how you put humidity before racism. Don’t worry, I won’t hold it against you.

Dave Cameron: Well, I encounter more humidity than racism, so it’s a more present problem for me. But, yeah, obviously, racism is awful.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to wake up the dog and feed her lunch. Keep my hands in your thoughts, or send some kind of extra thick gloves.